tphuang wrote:

...

So if DL's goal is to use a valuable A350 and loose money to make a point with no end game, they can certainly go ahead with that.

In hindsight, DL should have done that long back, sitting on $$Billions of cash reserves. Pick one ME3 high-yield route at a time, dump capacity and lower price during peak season.

dtw2hyd wrote:

tphuang wrote:

...

So if DL's goal is to use a valuable A350 and loose money to make a point with no end game, they can certainly go ahead with that.

In hindsight, DL should have done that long back, sitting on $$Billions of cash reserves. Pick one ME3 high-yield route at a time, dump capacity and lower price during peak season.

They've actually been smart about their cash reserve. Using it to build up new/strengthen existing hubs/focus cities domestically, which I think they feel are much higher return on the buck.

I flew to MAA with DL from Europe just before the route was dropped.

I think DL should head to BLR non stop from JFK.

So, I don't think anyone feels JFK-BOM will be minting money
So why JFK-BOM now? The big changes from when DL last flew JFK-BOM:
1) The relatively new and successful 9W partnership: so now the nonstop would connect two business capitals and benefit from corporate contracts and connections on both ends (even UA doesn't really rely on AI at BOM)
2) Continued growth in US-India traffic and Indian economic growth (ten years is a long time from an Indian aviation pov). India is probably the dominant source for the traffic between US-India so an Indian partner can really help
3) BOM now has a terminal that allows for connections and 9W is the dominant business carrier & DL is now much more dominant in NYC than they were in 2008. This route needs bankers paying $10k in J (and for all those who say they fly UA, not if they are sky team)
4) Hindsight by DL management: If you don't connect a large market like India properly, the ULLC and ME3 crowd will move (which then fuel their other routes like EU-US and hurting the US3 there). The US3 indirectly fueled the ME3's growth by not serving India properly (poor timings, old planes, one stop etc). The ME3 built their US-ME routes on India traffic and not on DXB, DOH, AUH O&D (contrary to some on anet). The last thing the US3 need is for WOW, Norwegian to use India traffic to increase EU-US frequencies or cities.
5) To complete the thought, DEL should be added latter. If 9W metal flies JFK-BOM, DL should fly ATL-DEL.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

So, I don't think anyone feels JFK-BOM will be minting money
So why JFK-BOM now? The big changes from when DL last flew JFK-BOM:
1) The relatively new and successful 9W partnership: so now the nonstop would connect two business capitals and benefit from corporate contracts and connections on both ends (even UA doesn't really rely on AI at BOM)
2) Continued growth in US-India traffic and Indian economic growth (ten years is a long time from an Indian aviation pov). India is probably the dominant source for the traffic between US-India so an Indian partner can really help
3) BOM now has a terminal that allows for connections and 9W is the dominant business carrier & DL is now much more dominant in NYC than they were in 2008. This route needs bankers paying $10k in J (and for all those who say they fly UA, not if they are sky team)
4) Hindsight by DL management: If you don't connect a large market like India properly, the ULLC and ME3 crowd will move (which then fuel their other routes like EU-US and hurting the US3 there). The US3 indirectly fueled the ME3's growth by not serving India properly (poor timings, old planes, one stop etc). The ME3 built their US-ME routes on India traffic and not on DXB, DOH, AUH O&D (contrary to some on anet). The last thing the US3 need is for WOW, Norwegian to use India traffic to increase EU-US frequencies or cities.
5) To complete the thought, DEL should be added latter. If 9W metal flies JFK-BOM, DL should fly ATL-DEL.

Yeah, too many people are using the argument "DL tried this one before and it didn't work, so it won't work now". It has been a long time since JFK-BOM was last flown by DL. A 359 would perform much better than the 772/77L DL used last time, their position in NYC is miles ahead of what it was in the late 2000s, and the 9W partnership didn't exist before. I'm by no means guaranteeing that the route would be a high performer if restarted, but I'm certainly not going to discount its possible success based on how it did a decade ago.

FSDan wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

So, I don't think anyone feels JFK-BOM will be minting money
So why JFK-BOM now? The big changes from when DL last flew JFK-BOM:
1) The relatively new and successful 9W partnership: so now the nonstop would connect two business capitals and benefit from corporate contracts and connections on both ends (even UA doesn't really rely on AI at BOM)
2) Continued growth in US-India traffic and Indian economic growth (ten years is a long time from an Indian aviation pov). India is probably the dominant source for the traffic between US-India so an Indian partner can really help
3) BOM now has a terminal that allows for connections and 9W is the dominant business carrier & DL is now much more dominant in NYC than they were in 2008. This route needs bankers paying $10k in J (and for all those who say they fly UA, not if they are sky team)
4) Hindsight by DL management: If you don't connect a large market like India properly, the ULLC and ME3 crowd will move (which then fuel their other routes like EU-US and hurting the US3 there). The US3 indirectly fueled the ME3's growth by not serving India properly (poor timings, old planes, one stop etc). The ME3 built their US-ME routes on India traffic and not on DXB, DOH, AUH O&D (contrary to some on anet). The last thing the US3 need is for WOW, Norwegian to use India traffic to increase EU-US frequencies or cities.
5) To complete the thought, DEL should be added latter. If 9W metal flies JFK-BOM, DL should fly ATL-DEL.

Yeah, too many people are using the argument "DL tried this one before and it didn't work, so it won't work now". It has been a long time since JFK-BOM was last flown by DL. A 359 would perform much better than the 772/77L DL used last time, their position in NYC is miles ahead of what it was in the late 2000s, and the 9W partnership didn't exist before. I'm by no means guaranteeing that the route would be a high performer if restarted, but I'm certainly not going to discount its possible success based on how it did a decade ago.

Thats one side of the coin, but here is another: when DL did fly from JFK and ATL to India, there was little to no competition from the ME3. Now there is. Youd be banking on people being willing to pay thousands more to fly a US3 nonstop to cover costs.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

So, I don't think anyone feels JFK-BOM will be minting money
So why JFK-BOM now? The big changes from when DL last flew JFK-BOM:
1) The relatively new and successful 9W partnership: so now the nonstop would connect two business capitals and benefit from corporate contracts and connections on both ends (even UA doesn't really rely on AI at BOM)
2) Continued growth in US-India traffic and Indian economic growth (ten years is a long time from an Indian aviation pov). India is probably the dominant source for the traffic between US-India so an Indian partner can really help
3) BOM now has a terminal that allows for connections and 9W is the dominant business carrier & DL is now much more dominant in NYC than they were in 2008. This route needs bankers paying $10k in J (and for all those who say they fly UA, not if they are sky team)
4) Hindsight by DL management: If you don't connect a large market like India properly, the ULLC and ME3 crowd will move (which then fuel their other routes like EU-US and hurting the US3 there). The US3 indirectly fueled the ME3's growth by not serving India properly (poor timings, old planes, one stop etc). The ME3 built their US-ME routes on India traffic and not on DXB, DOH, AUH O&D (contrary to some on anet). The last thing the US3 need is for WOW, Norwegian to use India traffic to increase EU-US frequencies or cities.
5) To complete the thought, DEL should be added latter. If 9W metal flies JFK-BOM, DL should fly ATL-DEL.

For each point:
1.) If the goal is connecting NYC with Mumbai, 9W partnership is irrelevent. You basically are banking on a lot of traffic to tertiery cities (one's that the ME3 doesn't fly to directly) and those are the people most likely to be price sensitive

2.) Sure, but we've also seen tremendous growth in ME3 ops to US since that time as well. When Delta cancelled JFK-BOM in 2009, there was I believe just one daily DXB-JFK flight. Now there's five on EK (two connecting in Europe), two on EY and QR each

3.) Again, the bankers that are paying $10k are largely going to Mumbai, or maybe a secondary city (or primary in the case of DEL), the types that can take 1-stops in J with an ME3 airline (or AF/LH/BA if they care so much about alliance/FF; true point about the terminal however - it has made connecting in BOM a lot easier

4.) No one thinks the ME3 built up in the US based on O&D; everyone realizes it is Subcontinent (and to a lesser extent Africa or SE Asia). I somewhat get the point that even if it didn't work the first time it shouldn';t mean to not try again, but I would have thought DL would have evaluated it. I don't agree though that the lack of US3 non-stops to India fueled the ME3's rise; it was their favorable situation

5.) No comment on that, but with JFK-BOM you are at least getting substantial O&D quantity

Antarius wrote:

subramak1 wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

I am sort of amazed that people think the US-India market is so homogenous of just low price VFR. While VFR is definitely a good chunk of the traffic, there is much more to India-US traffic than just that. Also India-US has pretty high traffic volumes (agreed not US-France but more than US-Israel I believe). Look the ME3 do absolutely NOTHING for DL and 9W frequent fliers. On the US side, there are plenty of professional Indians who travel for work and are aligned with an alliance. Same goes on the BOM side. BOM is well suited for the nonstop because on both the JFK and BOM end you have big corporations (read bankers, tech, conglomerates), rich people and VFR who have reached a stage in their life when paying for comfort of a nonstop is worth it. I get that people all know some Indian America who told them they saved $300 so they flew via Kuwait or something. Here's a shocker - there are many Indian-Americans, especially those that immigrated in the 60's and 70's, who do not want to fly via the Gulf. They do not want to land at 3am and make their families have to pick them up in the middle of the night. There are also plenty of people traveling to their smaller home towns. These people also want to land at a reasonable time so that they can connect or drive to their home towns in daylight. I don't believe the issue with JFK-BOM is yield (because J will do just fine), it's the transatlantic JV. The US3 and the EU airlines need India traffic to help keep US-EU frequencies going (especially in non peak times). That need has always outweighed the need to actually serve the US-India market properly. That is where AI and the ME3 exploited. Any way let's see what DL announces. Could be nothing or could be JFK-BOM on 9W metal (which is what I think it will be) I would guess timings will be like a 3:30pm departure form JFK (rather than 7pm) with 4pm BOM arrival (rather than 1am) and a 10pm departure from BOM (rather than 3am) with a 5am arrival in JFK (rather than noon). These are the timings that some people going to India prefer.

Exactly - and India VFR traffic is more high income than people realize

Subu

Yet the non stops are and have been limited.

Either DL is not smart about routes and making money (their profits say otherwise) or the market isnt the gold mine it is professed to be nonstop.

Occams Razor indicates the former.

For DL it may make sense to deploy their fleet elsewhere. I would think DL should be able to effectively utilize A350s to DEL/ BOM as non stop and succeed

Subu

LAXdude1023 wrote:

...
Thats one side of the coin, but here is another: when DL did fly from JFK and ATL to India, there was little to no competition from the ME3. .

After 9/11 US carriers were on the brink of collapse. ME3 got open-skies about the same time. While US is suffering ME3 used the opportunity to grow their business. When survival was at stake, spare them for not launching ULH routes.

Credit crunch was brutal post GFC2008 for any western business, but oil prices started creeping up giving oil nations advantage over rest of the world.

Good news, US3 became lean and nickle-and-diming helped US3 to reach current financial health. If they were splurging like ME3, they would be in same position, with surplus capacity and bloated workforce.

You cannot randomly compare two vastly different market conditions.

Strong rumblings from within DL indicate it will be a 777 and not the 350 due to performance...

dtw2hyd wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

...
Thats one side of the coin, but here is another: when DL did fly from JFK and ATL to India, there was little to no competition from the ME3. .

After 9/11 US carriers were on the brink of collapse. ME3 got open-skies about the same time. While US is suffering ME3 used the opportunity to grow their business. When survival was at stake, spare them for not launching ULH routes.

Credit crunch was brutal post GFC2008 for any western business, but oil prices started creeping up giving oil nations advantage over rest of the world.

Good news, US3 became lean and nickle-and-diming helped US3 to reach current financial health. If they were splurging like ME3, they would be in same position, with surplus capacity and bloated workforce.

You cannot randomly compare two vastly different market conditions.

Youre not being objective. It wasnt after 9/11 when the ME3 got big in the US. It wasnt until 2008-2009 that the ME3 got bigger in the US. For years it was just JFK. In early 2008, they started Houston and Los Angeles came on board in late 2008. SFO came on in 2010. Fastforward to now, they fly to 11 cities in the US and they arent done expanding. Dont forget QR that flies to 10 places and EY to another 4.

When DL flew to India, it was 2005-2007. At that time, EK had one long haul destination (JFK) and QR and EY didnt have any. Delta did not have to fight the ME3 for Indian traffic like they will now.

Acknowledge it or dont, but fares have come down to India dramatically since of their arrival to many cities here. India is already a mainly low fare market, why would any carrier want to compete with the ME3 in a market where the fares are already subpar?

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Youre not being objective. It wasnt after 9/11 when the ME3 got big in the US. It wasnt until 2008-2009 that the ME3 got bigger in the US. For years it was just JFK. In early 2008, they started Houston and Los Angeles came on board in late 2008. SFO came on in 2010. Fastforward to now, they fly to 11 cities in the US and they arent done expanding. Dont forget QR that flies to 10 places and EY to another 4.

When DL flew to India, it was 2005-2007. At that time, EK had one long haul destination (JFK) and QR and EY didnt have any. Delta did not have to fight the ME3 for Indian traffic like they will now.

Acknowledge it or dont, but fares have come down to India dramatically since of their arrival to many cities here. India is already a mainly low fare market, why would any carrier want to compete with the ME3 in a market where the fares are already subpar?

USA-UAE open-skies was signed in October 2001. Some day Bush will explain why, different topic. I am being very objective, for such a big airline, DL need not be frugal by buying old frames and redoing interiors. Any pre 9/11 USA carrier CEO would order 200xA380s.

Revenue model(or mindset) of legacies has changed. Earlier premium cabins make a route viable, cargo and economy make it profitable. Now economy cabins make a route viable, premium and cargo make it profitable.

USA-India premium market is fragmented (segregated is the right word). High networth Indians (Indian business travelers, Bollywood, Cricketers from Mumbai) mostly fly Indian carriers, they don't care about young FAs,IFE,wine and dine. They are DYKWIA types or comfortable with Indian food and crew, Indian cabin crew well suited to serve them. US premium travelers have tons of miles raked from corporate travel, want to use for personal travel. They care about product and service level. Lot of people are using *A miles on UA non-stops. There is a gaping hole for SkyMiles members.

ME3 doesn't figure in any of these calculations. CaliguyNYC trying to explain this since he singed up with a.net.

About the big lie theory of India being low yield. There was a ad by BA, featuring the dramatization of a BA FA's experience. BA hired a Bollywood director to produce this ad. It was about a granny in business class on LHR-HYD route. BA cabin crew may disagree with the service level, but airline made an effort to attract Indian business class passengers.

It is ME3 started offering lower fares to India to force out US3 and AI, unfortunately CN3 shadowed ME3 and continued to lower fares, now comes WOW.

It is a long boring ad for someone not familiar with Indian culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFb01yTR9bA

dtw2hyd wrote:

Any pre 9/11 USA carrier CEO would order 200xA380s.

What? Where would you take this idea from? Where would the airlines fly these hypothetical 200 A380's?

dtw2hyd wrote:

USA-India premium market is fragmented (segregated is the right word). High networth Indians (Indian business travelers, Bollywood, Cricketers from Mumbai) mostly fly Indian carriers, they don't care about young FAs,IFE,wine and dine. They are DYKWIA types or comfortable with Indian food and crew, Indian cabin crew well suited to serve them. US premium travelers have tons of miles raked from corporate travel, want to use for personal travel. They care about product and service level. Lot of people are using *A miles on UA non-stops. There is a gaping hole for SkyMiles members.

Wait, you think DL should start the route partly because so Skyteam members can redeem miles (ie. fly them J for free?).

dtw2hyd wrote:

It is ME3 started offering lower fares to India to force out US3 and AI, unfortunately CN3 shadowed ME3 and continued to lower fares, now comes WOW.

Again, the timing doesn't add up here. The ME3 started building up the US market after DL cancelled their BOM routes and AA shortly after. The one airline that would in theory have been effected was not forced out, as UA continued throughout. AI also has now added non-stops to SFO and LAX.

subramak1 wrote:

Antarius wrote:

subramak1 wrote:

Exactly - and India VFR traffic is more high income than people realize

Subu

Yet the non stops are and have been limited.

Either DL is not smart about routes and making money (their profits say otherwise) or the market isnt the gold mine it is professed to be nonstop.

Occams Razor indicates the former.

For DL it may make sense to deploy their fleet elsewhere. I would think DL should be able to effectively utilize A350s to DEL/ BOM as non stop and succeed

Subu

Which inherently means the yields do not justify the ULH flight or tying up multiple airframes to do so.

dmstorm22 wrote:

Again, the timing doesn't add up here. The ME3 started building up the US market after DL cancelled their BOM routes and AA shortly after. The one airline that would in theory have been effected was not forced out, as UA continued throughout. AI also has now added non-stops to SFO and LAX.

The entire argument is predicated on the ME3 being evil. If that's the starting point, then logic, timetables etc go out the window.

The yields either are there or they aren't. Given that the only carrier that has managed USA-India successfully is UA (AI is such a basket case, who knows how their route is actually doing over the last decade plus) indicates that it isnt this proverbial goldmine.

It's not an emotional thing. Just the reality of the situation.

Dmstorm22 said - “If the goal is connecting NYC with Mumbai, 9W partnership is irrelevent.“
9W is actually key because you want premium FF on both the India and US side to buy high fare J tix. Remember BOM corporates need to fly to JFK (read Manhattan) as well. Also 9W gets business pax to other Indian cities to see their call centers, factories, mines etc. Without 9W connections, DL loses their edge over others. And yes many VFR to small cities are price sensitive. But there still is a subset of rich people in these towns (or are now US citizens) who want convineice to get home.
I’ll say it again - 10 years is almost way too long in Indian aviantion to bring up the past. DL’s last JFK-BOM flight might as well be in a different era. Where were China-US/EU routes 10 years ago and where today.
Finally the ME3, while major players in India, do not have the market tied up. Unlike Pakistan, there is no natural affinity for Indians with the ME and most Indians in the US are specifically those that chose not to immigrate to the ME. Very few people go out of their way to connect there. AI convinvced people to give up the great ME3 for the convenience on nonstops (or to even avoid 1 stops through EU and ME). Again AI got pax to change to nonstops and the word spread how nice their timings and nonstops were. Even if you think this subset is a smallish percentage of the total, a small percentage of a large travel market should allow DL & 9W to make a business route like JFK-BOM work. Add to that 9W/DL/VS/AF/KL have made quite a go with their India-EU flights. I would bet ME3 are the ones losing traffic (as compared to the EU carriers).

On a side note. The poster that said they think its a DL 777 that would fly the route. The remodeled 777 might be a good choice. Not a huge J, premium Econ (well suited for the more affluent VFR) and a large Y. PLus Diamonds can use their upgrade carts on DL metal. Negative - DL prices J awards on their ULHs like SYD, TLV, JNB at crazy rates.

Antarius wrote:

.. (AI is such a basket case, who knows how their route is actually doing over the last decade plus) indicates that it isnt this proverbial goldmine.

It's not an emotional thing. Just the reality of the situation.

India's Comptroller and Auditor General publishes AI's India-USA route wise profit/loss details. EK financial reports' validity hinges on auditors brand name and a "trust me".

ULH viability is very tricky, things can go sideways even with one variable going wrong.

If DL wants to do it, they should go big and connect at-least 6 big Indian airports to ONE US hub and feed 50(or whatever) US airports. Let it be JFK.

No JFK-BOM and ATL-DEL crap.

If an earlier poster is correct, combined with the earlier statement by Bastian, it sounds like Delta returning to India is definitely a real possibility, despite the many haters here denying there is any chance Delta is serious about a return to the subcontinent. Should Delta go ahead and say resume JFK-BOM, unlike previous, the codeshare agreement with 9W could make a significant difference. I expect if and when Delta announces a resumption of JFK-BOM, they will simultaneously outline a codesharing agreement on BOM-Rest of India routes. Additionally, look for the timing on JFK-BOM to be earlier, say a 5 pm departure and a 5 pm next arrival in BOM, to allow for 9W connections. I haven't checked 9W's domestic schedule, but I would have to assume they would have plenty of domestic flights ex-BOM that leave after 7 pm BOM time. 9W codesharing will be critical for Delta's return to India. Its the only way I can think that it could work.

The equipment type would absolutely be a 77L. Delta's three longest flights, well once ATL-PVG resumes in July, will all be operated by the 77L. Delta has been clear their longest routes are 77L, then followed by the A350-900. Once ATL-NRT goes A350-900 after March 31 next year, the only route between 6,300 and 7,200 miles not operated by the A350-900 will be SEA-HKG, which its possible the two A350-900s scheduled for 2020 will go to this route, think DTW-SEA-HKG-SEA-DTW. (I'm not counting DTW-NGO as its a wildcard route that really can only be operated by a A330-200 but the unique circumstances with this route dictate this, not the competition.) Likewise, LAX-SYD, ATL-JNB, ATL-PVG, and, for argument's sake, JFK-BOM, are all 7,400 miles and longer. With the exception of the DTW-AMS positioning flight to better utilise the DTW-NRT/PEK flights, all of Delta's A350-900 flights are between 6,300 and 7,200 miles. It should be clear to everyone here how Delta is balancing their LH and ULH aircraft. The A330-200s, with the exception of DTW-NGO, are flying Europe, as the 767-300ER retirements have begun, the 777-200ER fleet are flown on flights that are in between 242 tonne A330-300 range and A350-900 range, (SEA-HKG, MSP-HND. I expect Delta to protest AA's request for dormancy on ORD-PEK authority and apply for LAX-PEK to replace for the authority. Should DOT agree to revoke AA's authority, which based on the SEA-HND dormancy is more likely than not to happen, Delta would apply for and most likely receive the authority to fly LAX-PEK, operated by a 777-200ER as they originally proposed. Yes, there is overcapacity but Delta is willing to bleed some red ink in LAX, especially to annoy AA.) Not only have the A350-900s taken or about to take over many former 747 routes, DTW-NRT/ICN/PVG, ATL-NRT, but have also allowed Delta to take remove the 772/77L/A332 off of routes such as ATL-ICN, DTW-PEK, LAX-PVG and move those aircraft to resume ATL-PVG, place more appropriate equipment on SEA-HKG, and allow for the 777 retrofit to commence.

Speaking of the 777 retrofit, the new configuration of the 77L will be far better than the previous configuration Delta first operated on JFK-BOM. The large J cabin was ill-suited for the route, and this wasn't the only route where Delta had issues selling out the 777 J cabin. Delta has gone from 45J to 37J and now down to 28J. That is the perfect size for route such as JFK-BOM and I would be surprised if the cabin goes out with empty seats. Upgrades should be difficult but not an impossibility. (ATL-JNB will soon become impossible and was one of those few 772/77L routes where the 45J cabin was absolutely needed.) The addition of 48W will definitely help and should sell out. In fact, this could be a real difference maker as India's economy is, even in just one decade in time, much larger and in better shape. There is definitely an opening between the low yield traffic in Y that would pay for something better than Y but nowhere near as expensive as D1.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Dmstorm22 said - “If the goal is connecting NYC with Mumbai, 9W partnership is irrelevent.“ .

I meant specifically connecting just NYC with BOM, basically that if you are starting the market because the O&D market is strong, O&D passengers are not benefiting from the 9W partnership.

Antarius wrote:

subramak1 wrote:

Antarius wrote:

Yet the non stops are and have been limited.

Either DL is not smart about routes and making money (their profits say otherwise) or the market isnt the gold mine it is professed to be nonstop.

Occams Razor indicates the former.

For DL it may make sense to deploy their fleet elsewhere. I would think DL should be able to effectively utilize A350s to DEL/ BOM as non stop and succeed

Subu

Which inherently means the yields do not justify the ULH flight or tying up multiple airframes to do so.

I think DL should try to DEL/BOM out of JFK, if they have the appetite. There are multiple services via AUH, DXB to JFK from BOM/DEL. I am sure a non stop from DEL to JFK by DL has potential to succeed but the opportunity cost is something I am not aware.

Subu

dmstorm22 wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Dmstorm22 said - “If the goal is connecting NYC with Mumbai, 9W partnership is irrelevent.“ .

I meant specifically connecting just NYC with BOM, basically that if you are starting the market because the O&D market is strong, O&D passengers are not benefiting from the 9W partnership.

Huh?? Yes 9W is still key even with O&D pax. Remember there are two sources for the JFK-BOM O&D traffic - JFK (where Delta brings premium corporate contracts and FF base) and BOM (where 9W brings premium corporate contracts and FF base). So why do you feel 9W is irrelevant to the success of the route? If what you mean that the DL O&D pax doesn't care about 9W, sure but the route economics is broader than just the DL base. Also I don't think anyone is saying that its only O&D that is driving the route. For an ULH to work you need: strong business O&D, FF base, connections on both sides, airports that can handle connections, etc. So its a mixtures of things. Can some routes survive missing one of these, sure. But then they need to compensate with some other bigger win. UA doesn't need BOM side India connections because EWR is a huge hub. DL will probably need BOM connections because JFK is a smaller hub than EWR.

twicearound wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

DL has flown its own metal on FRA-BOM, CDG-BOM, CDG-MAA, JFK-BOM, ATL-BOM, and AMS-BOM.

Not to mention all the NWA India flying done pre-merger which all falls under the DL umbrella now

Already included above: AMS-BOM.

jbs2886 wrote:

T773ER wrote:

Strong rumblings from within DL indicate it will be a 777 and not the 350 due to performance...

To where?

Also, the A350 fanboys are about to get very defensive on that statement (as they did about LAX-SYD).

Dl has the 268t a359. While this will manage the route with full pax, there will be cargo limitations. If DL gets the paper upgrade to 277t there should be minimum limitations.

ap305 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

T773ER wrote:

Strong rumblings from within DL indicate it will be a 777 and not the 350 due to performance...

To where?

Also, the A350 fanboys are about to get very defensive on that statement (as they did about LAX-SYD).

Dl has the 268t a359. While this will manage the route with full pax, there will be cargo limitations. If DL gets the paper upgrade to 277t there should be minimum limitations.

I stand corrected- Dl has the 275t variant already and it will carry approx 31t on the the north/westbound 16hr sector. More than UA's 200er but certainly less than the -200lr. It will of course burn a lot less of fuel.

LAX772LR wrote:

twicearound wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

DL has flown its own metal on FRA-BOM, CDG-BOM, CDG-MAA, JFK-BOM, ATL-BOM, and AMS-BOM.

Not to mention all the NWA India flying done pre-merger which all falls under the DL umbrella now

Already included above: AMS-BOM.

And DEL

twicearound wrote:

And DEL

When did NW metal fly to DEL?

Northwest served AMS-DEL via their j/v with KLM aircraft from 1997-2001

subramak1 wrote:

I think DL should try to DEL/BOM out of JFK, if they have the appetite. There are multiple services via AUH, DXB to JFK from BOM/DEL. I am sure a non stop from DEL to JFK by DL has potential to succeed but the opportunity cost is something I am not aware.
Subu

There is a lot of speculation here about DL flying to India, but I would think that a return to DXB might be more likely.

If I recall correctly, when they ended their service there, most informed observers said they were not losing money on the route, but (1) wanted to (cut off their nose to spite their face?) do it for political effect, and exaggerate the effects of ME3 competition to the Middle East; and (2) utilize their equipment on a route that might perform better. If it was marginal at that time, then it seems it should perform better in the current pricing climate - and the "concessions" attributed to EK might make it politically viable to return.

Of course, that might be wishful thinking... I would love to have a US-based carrier that could get me easily between my home country and properties in the Maldives...

klm617 wrote:

Let's see if Detroit gets some love or will it be snubbed yet again. Detroit India would be a good market for them. A350 is the perfect plane for Detroit India and the only Delta market left with no competition from the ME3 yet.

If anything (for this small, claimed-by-you-to-be-VFR market), the high-MTOW A330 is a better route-opener.

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Let's see if Detroit gets some love or will it be snubbed yet again. Detroit India would be a good market for them. A350 is the perfect plane for Detroit India and the only Delta market left with no competition from the ME3 yet.

If anything (for this small, claimed-by-you-to-be-VFR market), the high-MTOW A330 is a better route-opener.

Or a Cessna... DTW should have enough VFR traffic to fill a Cessna... or almost fill a Cessna...

alfa164 wrote:

2Holer4Longhaul wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Let's see if Detroit gets some love or will it be snubbed yet again. Detroit India would be a good market for them. A350 is the perfect plane for Detroit India and the only Delta market left with no competition from the ME3 yet.

If anything (for this small, claimed-by-you-to-be-VFR market), the high-MTOW A330 is a better route-opener.

Or a Cessna... DTW should have enough VFR traffic to fill a Cessna... or almost fill a Cessna...

Where's y'alls data that says there ain't any traffic between DTW-India? Spoiler alert, it's larger than a Cessna.

LAX772LR wrote:

twicearound wrote:

And DEL

When did NW metal fly to DEL?

For a little bit prior to 9/11. Think they added DEL in 1998 or 1999 replacing 3 of the KLM weekly frequencies.

NW began BOM in 1997 from AMS.

After 9/11 KL and NW split DEL and BOM. KL to DEL, NW to DEL.

Being in Corporate travel I can tell you the ATL-DXB route was packed with high dollar Military contractors more times than not. From my point of view they certainly did cut this route not due to profitability but to prove a point, which the argument now lost, means this route is top 3 to return.

India has to be connected as well.

dmstorm22 wrote:

AI also has now added non-stops to SFO and LAX.

AI was supposed to start LAX in Oct 2017. They have not yet done that. We will see if and when that happens

Its official, Delta will resume service to Mumbai in 2019.

https://news.delta.com/delta-serve-mumb ... op-us-2019

Is it me or the article not say where it will be served from?

JFK? ATL? DTW? SEA?

Atlwarrior wrote:

T773ER wrote:

Its official, Delta will resume service to Mumbai in 2019.

https://news.delta.com/delta-serve-mumb ... op-us-2019

I notice it said full schedule details, so perhaps it more than one city that will get India service.

Thats more in reference to which city the service will begin with, schedule times, equipment, etc.

T773ER wrote:

Its official, Delta will resume service to Mumbai in 2019.

https://news.delta.com/delta-serve-mumb ... op-us-2019

I notice it said full schedule details, so perhaps it more than one city that will get India service.

T773ER wrote:

Its official, Delta will resume service to Mumbai in 2019.

https://news.delta.com/delta-serve-mumb ... op-us-2019

My bet is on service from JFK. I just don't think there'd be enough O&D traffic for DTW-BOM or even ATL-BOM to work.

Strong possibility the route will be from ATL and operated by the 777.

T773ER wrote:

Strong possibility the route will be from ATL and operated by the 777.

Almost guaranteed to be a 777 not enough 350s on hand yet.

DL777200LR wrote:

T773ER wrote:

Strong possibility the route will be from ATL and operated by the 777.

Almost guaranteed to be a 777 not enough 350s on hand yet.

The A350 can't make it from ATL.

FSDan wrote:

T773ER wrote:

Its official, Delta will resume service to Mumbai in 2019.

https://news.delta.com/delta-serve-mumb ... op-us-2019

My bet is on service from JFK. I just don't think there'd be enough O&D traffic for DTW-BOM or even ATL-BOM to work.

While ATL is larger, the DTW end is growing. If I did my math right from data by the MIDT, in 2017 there were 175 pax going between DTW and India a day, primarily to BOM and DEL.