JetBlue says it seeks to change the US destinations of the AM/DL joint venture remedy slot pairs it was awarded at Mexico City.

B6 seeks to move US destination of the first Phase Two MEX slot pair from Los Angeles International Airport to Boston Logan International Airport and plans to change the US destination of the second Phase Two MEX slot pair from LAX to New York John F. Kennedy International Airport.


OST-2015-0070


To this end, they already put a press release out about new flights eff Oct.25 pending government approval
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... ice-Havana

Would be great if Mint becomes available on BOS/JFK-MEX

Not sure why they even bothered trying to LA, a market they likely would have little natural traction in.

Even AS with a big West Coast franchise has issues with making route work (use E175s, reduced frequency etc.)

LAXintl wrote:

JetBlue says it seeks to change the US destinations of the AM/DL joint venture remedy slot pairs it was awarded at Mexico City.

B6 seeks to move US destination of the first Phase Two MEX slot pair from Los Angeles International Airport to Boston Logan International Airport and plans to change the US destination of the second Phase Two MEX slot pair from LAX to New York John F. Kennedy International Airport.


OST-2015-0070


To this end, they already put a press release out about new flights eff Oct.25 pending government approval
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... ice-Havana

Very interesting - I was wondering if the LAX-MEX schedules would ever be loaded (and it never made much sense to me to begin with, although this has to also be viewed through the lens of B6 trying to get FIS at LGB and moving its request to LAX once the FIS was rejected).

What is the likelihood their request to move the award to JFK/BOS gets approved?

While JFK isn't too surprising, BOS certainly is, especially given that AM already connects the (pretty thin) market. Hard to see how two airlines will coexist in this market unless traffic can be stimulated substantially.

Imo, the JetBlue LAX switch was always dubious after it became clear it could never operate from LGB. What made it even worse was the actual MEX slot timings which hardly provided the most beneficial commercial times for JetBlue which likely would already be handicapped on route based on its weaker market presence.

While moving the awards to BOS & JFK certainly plays to B6 strengths, it kinda goes against the intentions of the DOT in the route case which was meant to carefully spread awards out between gateways and between US and Mexican carriers.

LAXintl wrote:

While moving the awards to BOS & JFK certainly plays to B6 strengths, it kinda goes against the intentions of the DOT in the route case which was meant to carefully spread awards out between gateways and between US and Mexican carriers.

Might the DOT deny the request? As someone who isn't especially involved in or knowledgeable about this process, I can't help but feel it's a bait & switch. But if there are no rules against it, I suppose there's no foul.

As much as I have enjoyed my B6 flights, I have enjoyed flying AM BOS-MEX-BOS on 2 trips. Looking forward to flying them again. BOS-Mex market can support 1 carrier at the moment, perhaps B6 should consider FLL-MEX or MCO-MEX for that slot pair.

georgiabill wrote:

As much as I have enjoyed my B6 flights, I have enjoyed flying AM BOS-MEX-BOS on 2 trips. Looking forward to flying them again. BOS-Mex market can support 1 carrier at the moment, perhaps B6 should consider FLL-MEX or MCO-MEX for that slot pair.

B6 flies twice daily from FLL and MCO, so that's covered. While BOS is not a safe bet, I think it could be a success given how big B6 is at BOS.

If DOT rejects this, can B6 use those awarded slots around the SoCal area like opening up SNA or ONT?

LAXintl wrote:

Imo, the JetBlue LAX switch was always dubious after it became clear it could never operate from LGB. What made it even worse was the actual MEX slot timings which hardly provided the most beneficial commercial times for JetBlue which likely would already be handicapped on route based on its weaker market presence.

While moving the awards to BOS & JFK certainly plays to B6 strengths, it kinda goes against the intentions of the DOT in the route case which was meant to carefully spread awards out between gateways and between US and Mexican carriers.

I could never understand why they did not try to move those 2 flights to BOS/JFK after LGB didn't work out. They clearly have no shots getting it work in the overly crowded LAX-MEX market.

Maybe given that AS has already returned 2 slots and WN has returned 1 slot, DOT will be more lenient toward a change. I'd imagine B6 feels the same way given that they have made this announcement already.

Dieuwer wrote:

Would be great if Mint becomes available on BOS/JFK-MEX

While the distance would certainly support it, not sure if there is enough higher yielding traffic in what seems to be a heavy VFR route. Looking at the j prices in the two markets, I see as low as $931 R/T fares on AM out of BOS and plenty of sub-$1000 out of JFK. Doesn't seem like the kind of fares that would support mint.

georgiabill wrote:

As much as I have enjoyed my B6 flights, I have enjoyed flying AM BOS-MEX-BOS on 2 trips. Looking forward to flying them again. BOS-Mex market can support 1 carrier at the moment, perhaps B6 should consider FLL-MEX or MCO-MEX for that slot pair.

NYC-MEX right now supports 12 daily flights with 5 carriers (or 4 if you count DL/AM as one). The y fares are less than half of what you see on BOS-MEX. I think BOS can support one additional carrier with a single daily flight.

I'm not sure how carriers are surviving on these low $100 y fares on JFK-MEX. The fares are even more gruesome than on LAX-MEX.

many321 wrote:

If DOT rejects this, can B6 use those awarded slots around the SoCal area like opening up SNA or ONT?

I think the message of a lot of what B6 has done lately is that they are more or less giving up on the West Coast in terms of garnering any kind of point of sale strength. They are only going to focus on routes to from the West Coast to other B6 strong points.

Even NYC-MEX is also pretty well served, AM/DL at 5 Daily, including a 787 turn, 4O is now up to 3 Daily and Y4 not to mention UA from EWR.

Sightseer wrote:

Might the DOT deny the request? As someone who isn't especially involved in or knowledgeable about this process, I can't help but feel it's a bait & switch. But if there are no rules against it, I suppose there's no foul.

Me thinks, the DOT wont do a thing really. If they oppose the move the authority most likely would go unused which is bad thing for consumers. They rather have it flown even if not on the intended airport pair. Only scenario I can see DOT oppose would be if other airline(s) oppose the move and offered to serve MEX-LAX themselves - but what carrier would that be??

many321 wrote:

If DOT rejects this, can B6 use those awarded slots around the SoCal area like opening up SNA or ONT?

Not sure what the point is. Route performance likely be even worse at ONT or SNA. At SNA, B6 does not have have authority to operate.

BOS is quite unexpected. MEX-BOS is going to be a bloodbath between B6 and AM (with the support of DL) if this goes ahead.

1) Why would DOT deny B6 BOS-MEX if only AM flies this route currently?
2) Why would BOS-MEX turn into a bloodbath if AM currently has a defacto monopoly?

EddieDude wrote:

BOS is quite unexpected. MEX-BOS is going to be a bloodbath between B6 and AM (with the support of DL) if this goes ahead.

How is BOS going to be any worse of a bloodbath than NYC is? At JFK alone you have 10-11 daily flights and 4 carriers on JFK-MEX. Once B6 enters JFK-MEX that means 5 carriers at 11-12 daily flights. Throw in EWR and its 2 daily flights on UA, NYC-MEX will be at 6 carriers and 13-14 daily flights. Of course NYC-MEX is bigger than BOS-MEX, but there's a lot more competition on NYC-MEX.

I think B6 will have an easier time on BOS given the amount of competition at JFK. And they will have feeds at BOS.

This will certainly eat some of their connections at FLL and MCO...

If timed and priced correctly B6 could also get some connections from their TATL codeshare partners who don't serve MEX through BOS.
It sure will be good having some more competition on the route though.

tphuang wrote:

I think B6 will have an easier time on BOS given the amount of competition at JFK. And they will have feeds at BOS.

Apart from some connections from foreign carrier code shares, who would connect at BOS to travel to MEX? It's completely out-of-the-way for any market B6 serves from BOS, apart from maybe MVY or ACK. There's definitely less non-stop competition at BOS, but the market is tiny in comparison.

We will find out. Without knowing the Slot times, some cities I see are buf, pit, bwi and Cle.

There are 15 times as much capacity out of nyc right now vs Boston. We will see if lower pricing can stimulate enough demand for this to work.

tphuang wrote:

We will find out. Without knowing the Slot times, some cities I see are buf, pit, bwi and Cle.

There are 15 times as much capacity out of nyc right now vs Boston. We will see if lower pricing can stimulate enough demand for this to work.

Partnerwise, KEF, DUB, SNN, DXB, DOH, IST, PDL, TER, LIS all very logical depending on timing though these markets aren't too big.

I would add SYR as well and if they add BOS-ROC it would work plus any Cape Air flight.

I wonder if they would team up with Interjet in MEX. The other two Mexican LCC's may be too LCC for B6.

ScottB wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I think B6 will have an easier time on BOS given the amount of competition at JFK. And they will have feeds at BOS.

Apart from some connections from foreign carrier code shares, who would connect at BOS to travel to MEX? It's completely out-of-the-way for any market B6 serves from BOS, apart from maybe MVY or ACK. There's definitely less non-stop competition at BOS, but the market is tiny in comparison.

Two weeks out, AM is selling flights for $750+ for a peak Monday travel. Implies that there is demand. BOS is also relatively underserved compared to other major hubs in the country and most airlines have stuck to BOS so far. B6 still leads the BOS market vs. a resurgent DL and a fading AA - it maybe mostly O&D. There are better flying options from PIT etc. to fly to MEX vs. BOS.

santi319 wrote:

This will certainly eat some of their connections at FLL and MCO...

Sure, although it now makes B6 a competitive option for New Yorkers and Bostonians. I doubt B6 makes much money at MEX to begin with though - it's a much different market from B6's bread-and-butter Island flying, and sometimes walk-up fares can be had from MCO/FLL for barely above $100.

tphuang wrote:

We will find out. Without knowing the Slot times, some cities I see are buf, pit, bwi and Cle.

There are 15 times as much capacity out of nyc right now vs Boston. We will see if lower pricing can stimulate enough demand for this to work.

I'm sure B6 will capture a few lower-yielding domestic connections, but the true benefit is the overall additional connectivity MEX now has to network, which is especially helpful during IRROPS.

International connections may be more lucrative.

adamh8297 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

We will find out. Without knowing the Slot times, some cities I see are buf, pit, bwi and Cle.

There are 15 times as much capacity out of nyc right now vs Boston. We will see if lower pricing can stimulate enough demand for this to work.

Partnerwise, KEF, DUB, SNN, DXB, DOH, IST, PDL, TER, LIS all very logical depending on timing though these markets aren't too big.

I would add SYR as well and if they add BOS-ROC it would work plus any Cape Air flight.

I wonder if they would team up with Interjet in MEX. The other two Mexican LCC's may be too LCC for B6.

The funny thing is that BOS is pretty much perfectly placed to capture connections from the cities you mention. IST-BOS-MEX is one mile longer than IST-MEX, per Great Circle Mapper. DUB is 25 miles longer.

The major hindrance is the rather difficult connection for international travelers transiting via the US.

I wonder if the additional service from B6 at Logan will hasten the return of EK’s second DXB-BOS non-stop.

Out of AM vs B6 I see AM pulling out of BOS (they have before).

I never understood why they never started JFK flights to begin with - the market is HUGE.

santi319 wrote:

Out of AM vs B6 I see AM pulling out of BOS (they have before).

I never understood why they never started JFK flights to begin with - the market is HUGE.

This is unlikely with the AM/DL JV.

B752OS wrote:

How is BOS going to be any worse of a bloodbath than NYC is? At JFK alone you have 10-11 daily flights and 4 carriers on JFK-MEX. Once B6 enters JFK-MEX that means 5 carriers at 11-12 daily flights. Throw in EWR and its 2 daily flights on UA, NYC-MEX will be at 6 carriers and 13-14 daily flights. Of course NYC-MEX is bigger than BOS-MEX, but there's a lot more competition on NYC-MEX.

I never said anything about NYC-MEX in my post. I never said or meant to say that the bloodbath that I anticipate in BOS-MEX is going to be worse than, comparable to, or lesser than whatever is going on on NYC-MEX at the moment.

My opinion that a bloodbath is looming on BOS-MEX has nothing to do with the current situation on JFK-MEX.

Yes, I think there is substantial competition in the NYC-MEX market, especially considering how low Volaris is pricing its seats. Whether the greater demand justifies so many players and so many frequencies is the subject of a different discussion, but that was never part of my post or meant to be part of my post. Do not ascribe to me opinions or conclusions that I never wrote.

EddieDude wrote:

My opinion that a bloodbath is looming on BOS-MEX has nothing to do with the current situation on JFK-MEX

Isn't some measurable service required in order to qualify anything as a bloodbath? Currently there is a grand total of 1 (ONE), less than daily flight between BOS and MEX. That leads me to believe that the O&D market just isn't big enough for 2 nearly daily flights, which basically means this can't be profitable for anyone. To me this smells like slot-sitting more than anything and it's B6 trying to keep DL from gaining in this market albeit thru their JV with AM.

airbazar wrote:

EddieDude wrote:

My opinion that a bloodbath is looming on BOS-MEX has nothing to do with the current situation on JFK-MEX

Isn't some measurable service required in order to qualify anything as a bloodbath? Currently there is a grand total of 1 (ONE), less than daily flight between BOS and MEX. That leads me to believe that the O&D market just isn't big enough for 2 nearly daily flights, which basically means this can't be profitable for anyone. To me this smells like slot-sitting more than anything and it's B6 trying to keep DL from gaining in this market albeit thru their JV with AM.

Not a good idea to slot sit with a 2000 mile flight for a market less than 100 PDEW. Maybe they should have tried AUS-MEX instead?

Instead of BOS-MEX, B6 should do BOS-PVR. If only seasonally.

adamh8297 wrote:

airbazar wrote:

EddieDude wrote:

My opinion that a bloodbath is looming on BOS-MEX has nothing to do with the current situation on JFK-MEX

Isn't some measurable service required in order to qualify anything as a bloodbath? Currently there is a grand total of 1 (ONE), less than daily flight between BOS and MEX. That leads me to believe that the O&D market just isn't big enough for 2 nearly daily flights, which basically means this can't be profitable for anyone. To me this smells like slot-sitting more than anything and it's B6 trying to keep DL from gaining in this market albeit thru their JV with AM.

Not a good idea to slot sit with a 2000 mile flight for a market less than 100 PDEW. Maybe they should have tried AUS-MEX instead?

If the fares come down, i would imagine there will be more demand than that. Right now, anyone living between bos/nyc would pick jfk due to the vastly cheaper fares and better schedule. If bos fares are more competitive, that wouldn't be the case. Someone in Maine might drive down to BOS instead of doing PWM-connection point-MEX. And on top of that, there would also be more leisure demand if fares are not so high. Not everyone takes vacation to beaches.

and yes, AUS would be an ideal Mexican gateway location for a north eastern airline.

This has now been confirmed
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=55252
Daily Schedule between New York (JFK) and Mexico City (MEX)
Beginning October 25, 2018

JFK - MEX Flight #921 MEX - JFK Flight #922
9:58 a.m. – 2:25 p.m. 3:55 p.m. – 10:02 p.m.


Daily Schedule between Boston (BOS) and Mexico City (MEX)
Beginning October 25, 2018

BOS - MEX Flight #483 MEX - BOS Flight #484
8:31 a.m. – 1:15 p.m. 2:20 p.m. – 8:42 p.m.

Viva Aerobus is also starting JFK-MEX, one week prior to B6.

https://www.vivaaerobus.com/en/news-roo ... exico-city

tphuang wrote:

If the fares come down, i would imagine there will be more demand than that. Right now, anyone living between bos/nyc would pick jfk due to the vastly cheaper fares and better schedule.

No way in hell I am connecting in JFK in the middle of winter. Higher fares out of BOS or not.

Yeah, BOS is much better during those NE blizzards than JFK ... not

Specific to JetBlue:

Deicing at the JFK hub is much quicker and more efficient than BOS. It is done right on the T5 ramp.

The BOS deicing operation is the WORST of all snowy cities in the United States. All traffic gets funneled into one line on the south ramp. It is a mess.

jfklganyc wrote:

Deicing at the JFK hub is much quicker and more efficient than BOS. It is done right on the T5 ramp.

The BOS deicing operation is the WORST of all snowy cities in the United States. All traffic gets funneled into one line on the south ramp. It is a mess.

Read this before spreading your Fake News: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/nyre ... storm.html

tphuang wrote:

This has now been confirmed
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=55252
Daily Schedule between New York (JFK) and Mexico City (MEX)
Beginning October 25, 2018

JFK - MEX Flight #921 MEX - JFK Flight #922
9:58 a.m. – 2:25 p.m. 3:55 p.m. – 10:02 p.m.


Daily Schedule between Boston (BOS) and Mexico City (MEX)
Beginning October 25, 2018

BOS - MEX Flight #483 MEX - BOS Flight #484
8:31 a.m. – 1:15 p.m. 2:20 p.m. – 8:42 p.m.

I may be missing something, but with JFK being their main hub, why wouldn't B6 turn that BOS arrival to JFK allowing for more connections including BOS? Or is this more an O/D route?

RWA380 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

This has now been confirmed
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=55252
Daily Schedule between New York (JFK) and Mexico City (MEX)
Beginning October 25, 2018

JFK - MEX Flight #921 MEX - JFK Flight #922
9:58 a.m. – 2:25 p.m. 3:55 p.m. – 10:02 p.m.


Daily Schedule between Boston (BOS) and Mexico City (MEX)
Beginning October 25, 2018

BOS - MEX Flight #483 MEX - BOS Flight #484
8:31 a.m. – 1:15 p.m. 2:20 p.m. – 8:42 p.m.

I may be missing something, but with JFK being their main hub, why wouldn't B6 turn that BOS arrival to JFK allowing for more connections including BOS? Or is this more an O/D route?

That's an interesting question. They are definitely a very heavily O&D focused airline. But between BOS/JFK, they now consider BOS to be the more important hub. In NYC, they can never reach a certainly level of relevance in business community without LGA slots. In BOS, they have the most gates and most of the major corporate contracts. They have stated many times that BOS is their most profitable focus city. Although, I'm not sure if that's still the case with the DL invasion.

B6 must be counting on O/D traffic to support these services, especially without any feed at MEX. That said, at least it's a morning departure from the Northeast hubs. The real war will be JFK-MEX for noontime arrivals, given that you have 4O just before that on an A320/A20N (they're 25x weekly MEX-JFK on the A320/A20N), Y4 and VB daily on the A320/A20N (Y4 sometimes on the A319), and AM on the B789 weekdays and B738 weekends (they're 28 weekly - 23x weekly B738 and 5x weekly B789). Can the two markets really support 86 weekly frequencies each way? That said, the airline probably who could best take on this is B6, especially if they put Mint on this down the line to siphon off AM premium traffic on the days when they fly a 3-class plane.