RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

george77300 · Sun May 06, 2018 2:31 pm

Source: https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/993132805658902528

Latest: #UAE’s @EtihadAirways are tipped to be making an announcement soon, to cancel airliner aircraft Etihad currently on order, defer deliveries/reduce future orders
It’s as management try to overcome the $2 billion loss the Abu Dhabi state-owned carrier has suffered

There order book stands at:

26 x A321neo
62 x A350 (40 x A359, 22 x A35K)

52 x B787 (22 x B789, 30 x B78J)
25 x B777X (8 x B777-8X, 17 x B777-9X)

What do you think will be cancelled or deferred? Seeing as they have lots of B789 already maybe some of the large A350 order will be cancelled or deferred. Possibly a reduction of 787 too?

sibibom · Sun May 06, 2018 2:39 pm

Probably defer most of B787, definitely cancel B777X.

Cancel A350? defer A321NEO

qf789 · Sun May 06, 2018 2:43 pm

george77300 wrote:
Source: https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/993132805658902528

Latest: #UAE’s @EtihadAirways are tipped to be making an announcement soon, to cancel airliner aircraft Etihad currently on order, defer deliveries/reduce future orders
It’s as management try to overcome the $2 billion loss the Abu Dhabi state-owned carrier has suffered

There order book stands at:

26 x A321neo
62 x A350 (40 x A359, 22 x A35K)

52 x B787 (22 x B789, 30 x B78J)
25 x B777X (8 x B777-8X, 17 x B777-9X)

What do you think will be cancelled or deferred? Seeing as they have lots of B789 already maybe some of the large A350 order will be cancelled or deferred. Possibly a reduction of 787 too?

Its actually 51 787 they have on order, one was delivered last month of which is not reflected on Boeing's overall numbers yet as the update for April has not happened yet. There will also be another 10 787's that will enter production between now and the end of the year for Etihad

Link to Reuters article

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN1I70FE

zkojq · Sun May 06, 2018 2:43 pm

777x seems prime to cancel. These aircraft will be very hard to shift later on if the airline takes delivery of them and subsequently decides they don't need them. Very illiquid asset.

A350-900s also seems an obvious target for cancellation since there are so many of them and the airline alright operates so many 787-9s.

A321neos should be safe, though they could well space out their deliveries.

B787-9s can replace A330s, A350-1000s can eventually replace the 77Ws and you will eventually have a nice rationalised fleet. Maybe some 787-9s would be cancelled or postponed long term.

Of course, to save face, they might just get Mubadala to start up an aircraft lessor and transfer some of the orders to them...

george77300 · Sun May 06, 2018 2:48 pm

sibibom wrote:
Probably defer most of B787, definitely cancel B777X.

Cancel A350? defer A321NEO

I can't see them being that drastic. They already have a lot of B787 currently and another 10 delivered this year so I can imagine keeping most of the B787 with some deferrals. Also for narrowbodies I can see them keeping the A321neo. However, I agree that the large A350 order might be in trouble. Save them introducing a new fleet for a while and maybe cancel some and defer others?

The 777X I can see them keeping. Its a small order and good compliment to the B77W fleet and can use the same pilot pool.

Waterbomber · Sun May 06, 2018 2:50 pm

In terms of B777X, I only see them keeping about 10 deferred B779 orders if they don't cancel the whole thing.

The B787's should keep rolling off but some could be deferred.

In terms of A350's their order is just too big.
20 would be plenty enough. The exact count will come down to whether they'll keep the B777X order but I don't think that they can cancel the A350 straight out.

OA940 · Sun May 06, 2018 3:00 pm

I suspect the 777X will go. Maybe part of the A350 order, but I honestly doubt it'll entirely vanish. Maybe they'll cancel one variant entirely (probably the 35K but hopefully not) and keep the other. I could also see them cancelling or deferring part of the 787 order, possibly the -10, which would also be a shame.

raylee67 · Sun May 06, 2018 3:03 pm

This is probably what I would do:

No change to A321NEOs, or at most some minor defer, and use them to replace A320/A321CEO (32 in service now)
Keep 787-9 order and delivery (21 more coming), and use the type to replace all A330-200 and -300 in service now (total 24 in service)
Only keep about 10 787-10 on order to replace A330-300 on some heavier routes and to allow mild expansion. Cancel 20 787-10 in total
Cancel about half of the A350 on order, i.e. keep about 30 A350 on order, mix of -900 and -1000, and use them to replace 777-300ER (19 in service now) and allow mild expansion
Cancel all 777-X

May be actually order 10 or 15 more A321NEO to replace all remaining A320/A321CEO (after replacing most of them with existing order of NEO) and allow mild expansion

So the fleet will then only have A321NEO, A350-900, -1000, 787-9, -10 and A380. Technically I think they should get rid of the A380 too, and if they do, they may need to keep a few more of the A350-1000 orders. The problem is that the A380 are still quite new and they have no resale value, so keeping them may be the only choice.

george77300 · Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 pm

OA940 wrote:
I suspect the 777X will go. Maybe part of the A350 order, but I honestly doubt it'll entirely vanish. Maybe they'll cancel one variant entirely (probably the 35K but hopefully not) and keep the other. I could also see them cancelling or deferring part of the 787 order, possibly the -10, which would also be a shame.

I think the B787 is the safest of all. They have a load already. Good to replace A330 fleet. Also they have orders for both the -9 and -10 this year so would be hard to cancel or defer lots and probably not easily possible to cancel all -10 fleet entirely with I believe 4 due later this year.

Faro · Sun May 06, 2018 3:10 pm

Definitely the A350 and 777X that may suffer the most...ugly situation for both manufacturers...

Faro

jetblueguy22 · Sun May 06, 2018 3:16 pm

Everyone seems to be leaning towards the 777s being cancelled, but I'm not so sure. Strategically their best move is to merge or be absorbed into EK, keeping the 777 order may be a way to sweeten that deal.

JAAlbert · Sun May 06, 2018 3:22 pm

What was the thought process of Etihad ordering so many aircraft? I assume some are for replacement, but that still leaves quite a few aircraft. Did the airline have unrealistic expectations or have market conditions changed for them since ordering the planes?

Bricktop · Sun May 06, 2018 3:44 pm

I would say the 777X are toast. A321s are probably safe, but the 787's and A350's should be pared back and deferred.
Or, they kill the A350's and 777X all together and merge with EK. Combined company doesn't need all that lift.

ikolkyo · Sun May 06, 2018 3:48 pm

I think a good portion of the 777X will be deferred further since the first aircraft already doesn't EIS until 2020 and aircraft close to delivery will be cancelled. The A350 is in real jeapordy of being outright cancelled/converted to A320neo aircraft. Solely because they have the 787 already. The remaining 787 aircraft can replace the A330 fleet entirely if they choose to. I have always thought EY had far too many aircraft on order.

Blerg · Sun May 06, 2018 3:50 pm

Several of their European destinations were recently downgraded to the A332. Seems like they are still struggling with yields.

Lufthansa · Sun May 06, 2018 3:53 pm

I think this was always gonna be the case. One of the great problems for EY is the fact that EK is less than an hr's drive down the road, but that city has far more O & D demand. Does a country the size of the UAE really need two national carriers? And a little further north there's a carrier that doesn't really have to make any money ever from a country that has the worlds second biggest gas reserves and is hell bent on growing at any expense and willing to engage in practices UAE carriers wouldn't. It's not impossible, they could succeed as a boutique carrier. Royal Brunei does. But it's always gonna be tough for them with Qatar and Emirates both very close and both having much larger networks, and EK having a lot more O & D demand.

This is a particularly big loss though. I think we need to also question how much of it is from write downs of bad EY investments like AB and Alitalia and how much is actually from EY operations themselves? The situation may not be as drastic as it sounds.

sibibom · Sun May 06, 2018 3:54 pm

Honestly they can simplify it further A320/21, B787-9(maybe a few 10), A350-1000 and A380 in the next 3-4 years, with the new terminal it might just work.

Jayafe · Sun May 06, 2018 3:55 pm

There it goes almost 10% of the whole 777x backlog. First strike, likely more to come.

Feel bad about Etihad, defo one of my fav products.

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Everyone seems to be leaning towards the 777s being cancelled, but I'm not so sure. Strategically their best move is to merge or be absorbed into EK, keeping the 777 order may be a way to sweeten that deal.

That will never happen. From some latitudes posters keep seeing only the economic side of the airlines, where traditions, pride and politics play major games in the area.

george77300 · Sun May 06, 2018 4:00 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
I think this was always gonna be the case. One of the great problems for EY is the fact that EK is less than an hr's drive down the road, but that city has far more O & D demand. Does a country the size of the UAE really need two national carriers? And a little further north there's a carrier that doesn't really have to make any money ever from a country that has the worlds second biggest gas reserves and is hell bent on growing at any expense and willing to engage in practices UAE carriers wouldn't. It's not impossible, they could succeed as a boutique carrier. Royal Brunei does. But it's always gonna be tough for them with Qatar and Emirates both very close and both having much larger networks, and EK having a lot more O & D demand.

This is a particularly big loss though. I think we need to also question how much of it is from write downs of bad EY investments like AB and Alitalia and how much is actually from EY operations themselves? The situation may not be as drastic as it sounds.

The size of the country is irrelevant and the O&D demand is also. I have no idea the percentage but I'd guess well over 90% of EK passengers will be in the airport in the UAE only and connect elsewhere. EY is the same. Their business model, a bit like TK is about connecting everyone to everywhere in the world and relies on very little O & D demand. The problem with EY is as they reduce destinations, they become less attractive to connecting passengers which makes it worse for them. EK are doing much better due to the sheer size of their operation. EY needs to keep as many destinations open to stay competitive even if it downsizes aircraft.

george77300 · Sun May 06, 2018 4:01 pm

Jayafe wrote:
There it goes almost 10% of the whole 777x backlog. First strike, likely more to come.

Feel bad about Etihad, defo one of my fav products.

I don't think so at all. I firmly believe the large 62 A350 order is the most at risk.

Jayafe · Sun May 06, 2018 4:05 pm

george77300 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
There it goes almost 10% of the whole 777x backlog. First strike, likely more to come.

Feel bad about Etihad, defo one of my fav products.

I don't think so at all. I firmly believe the large 62 A350 order is the most at risk.

Agree, I see them both gone, but it's a major compromise in the case of the 777X, specially as its a backlog quite related to the region.

TheRedBaron · Sun May 06, 2018 4:10 pm

They could do nothing and complain about the carpets and interiors and not take delivery ...

On a serious note...the 777 and the 350 orders would be the logical choices and keep the Dreamliners and 321 Neos.

Best regards
TRB

Swadian · Sun May 06, 2018 4:14 pm

If EY doesn't merge with EK, they're going to retrench and won't need A350 or 777X. If EY merges with EK, the combined company won't need all those A350 and 777X.

So both A350 and 777X are done for, 787 and A321neo are safe.

george77300 · Sun May 06, 2018 4:14 pm

Jayafe wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
There it goes almost 10% of the whole 777x backlog. First strike, likely more to come.

Feel bad about Etihad, defo one of my fav products.

I don't think so at all. I firmly believe the large 62 A350 order is the most at risk.

Agree, I see them both gone, but it's a major compromise in the case of the 777X, specially as its a backlog quite related to the region.

I don't see the B777X order being cancelled. Possibly deferred. They are a premium airline still. (One of the only with first and business in B787). They will need larger planes and these are a great B77W replacement and some small growth for them to the higher capacity premium heavy destinations. Its also a somewhat small order so I can see it happening. The 62 A350 on top of similar B787 numbers seems unreasonable and unsustainable. To me the B787 is more safe seeing as they have 20+ currently with 10 ish coming this year including 4 787-10s. I can see a huge reduction in A350, not complete cancellation, and deferrals of the rest.

jmmadrid · Sun May 06, 2018 4:46 pm

JAAlbert wrote:
What was the thought process of Etihad ordering so many aircraft? I assume some are for replacement, but that still leaves quite a few aircraft. Did the airline have unrealistic expectations or have market conditions changed for them since ordering the planes?

Mine is bigger than yours?

MD80MKE · Sun May 06, 2018 4:51 pm

A321neo are probably the safest among them all. Given the fact that they already have a decent size of 787 fleet, it would be logical to take deliveries for this year and defer all of the rest on order. Part of A350-900 order would probably be cancelled as they are overlapped with 787-9 a little bit, but I would bet EY will keep the all the A35K to replace their 77W as they have almost identical seat count. 77X will be most definitely outright cancelled, that order was ordered for growth. With the demand for EY right now, no way in the world they need aircraft that large and heavy. That will burn their money as quickly as it could. Going for lighter and cheaper A35K is a more logical path for EY if they want to stop bleeding.

Antarius · Sun May 06, 2018 4:54 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
What was the thought process of Etihad ordering so many aircraft? I assume some are for replacement, but that still leaves quite a few aircraft. Did the airline have unrealistic expectations or have market conditions changed for them since ordering the planes?

Mine is bigger than yours?

Yep. Measuring contest.

Faro · Sun May 06, 2018 5:02 pm

Antarius wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
What was the thought process of Etihad ordering so many aircraft? I assume some are for replacement, but that still leaves quite a few aircraft. Did the airline have unrealistic expectations or have market conditions changed for them since ordering the planes?

Mine is bigger than yours?

Yep. Measuring contest.

‘Thought’ process?...

Faro

Newflyer2018 · Sun May 06, 2018 5:36 pm

This was expected to come sooner or later...

Now it makes senses!

I have a database at work which shows orders and deliveries dates, when I checked Etihad deliveries until end of 2018 last week it only showed 789 and one 781 I thought it was strange as I did the same search the month before and it inlcuded A359 to be delivered in Oct.

I can only assume this wasn’t an error in the database but infact A350 order has been deferred or cancelled.

It was also leaked last week they were getting rid a few hundred would-be cabin crews who were placed in their talent pool awaiting training. No new cabin crews = no new aircraft = no expansion.

It’s starting to look worse day by the day, Its a great shame to hear as I’m a big fan and frequent traveler on Etihad.

I think the top management need to come out punching some positive news or making things clear as all they had recently is bad press.

kaitak · Sun May 06, 2018 5:41 pm

Ironic that just up the road, EK is having to park aircraft as not enough crews.

With regard to 777X order, BA is reported to be ready to order this type in the near future, so maybe possible to take over this order, at least the -9 part of it.

A350, I agree ... new type not needed at this time.

As to A330, I thought the plan was to get rid of these altogether and focus on 787-9. I would say that 787 order definitely to be reduced, but o/s order for -9s to stay in place.

A321 order probably mostly to be converted to 320s?

Would be interesting to see if EK took over some of this order, as part of private arrangement between two carriers, or perhaps even Qatar - certainly no private arrangement, but QR (and Qatar itself) would probably enjoy an opportunity to take some acft intended for QR, just as a little message to the UAE!

Armodeen · Sun May 06, 2018 6:03 pm

kaitak wrote:
Ironic that just up the road, EK is having to park aircraft as not enough crews.

With regard to 777X order, BA is reported to be ready to order this type in the near future, so maybe possible to take over this order, at least the -9 part of it.

A350, I agree ... new type not needed at this time.

As to A330, I thought the plan was to get rid of these altogether and focus on 787-9. I would say that 787 order definitely to be reduced, but o/s order for -9s to stay in place.

A321 order probably mostly to be converted to 320s?

Would be interesting to see if EK took over some of this order, as part of private arrangement between two carriers, or perhaps even Qatar - certainly no private arrangement, but QR (and Qatar itself) would probably enjoy an opportunity to take some acft intended for QR, just as a little message to the UAE!

More likely that QR will cancel the 77X as well, since they also don’t need them (they are still receiving new 77Ws!!) and have ordered too many aircraft.

c933103 · Sun May 06, 2018 6:04 pm

Can't really see them dropping 777x order with the way they connect passengers and how 777X being designed for operational environment there. If they do drop the order maybe it's a sign that they're dropping out of ME3

BestWestern · Sun May 06, 2018 6:17 pm

Rumours are that their 332’s are heading to eurowings.

Fleet going to

787
350
380

xwb777 · Sun May 06, 2018 6:27 pm

In EY inflight magazine ( April 2018 issue), the B777X is not included in the future fleet. Only the A350 is present.

So i think the B777X will be cancelled.

PerfectGriffin · Sun May 06, 2018 6:37 pm

It never made sense to order so many aircraft and so many types as well! Another grave mistake by Hogan...
They will most like cancel the A350 and defer the B77X order.

kevin5345179 · Sun May 06, 2018 6:40 pm

xwb777 wrote:
In EY inflight magazine ( April 2018 issue), the B777X is not included in the future fleet. Only the A350 is present.

So i think the B777X will be cancelled.

I double checked all the magazine that's available online, but 777X never showed up.
Maybe it is considered as 777 family ?

Eyad89 · Sun May 06, 2018 6:44 pm

I Agree with most, 777X is the first to be canceled. It is the most expensive to operate. Airbus is lucky that they delivered all of EY A380s, otherwise, they would have been gone in a second.

I am guessing both A350 and 787 will be either deferred or reduced. The order of A321 should stay intact.
I won’t be surprised that we see similar announcements from other QR. I have been expecting this for some time.

Slug71 · Sun May 06, 2018 6:48 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
I Agree with most, 777X is the first to be canceled. It is the most expensive to operate. Airbus is lucky that they delivered all of EY A380s, otherwise, they would have been gone in a second.

I am guessing both A350 and 787 will be either deferred or reduced. The order of A321 should stay intact.
I won’t be surprised that we see similar announcements from other QR. I have been expecting this for some time.

Agreed.

Dutchy · Sun May 06, 2018 7:05 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
I Agree with most, 777X is the first to be canceled. It is the most expensive to operate. Airbus is lucky that they delivered all of EY A380s, otherwise, they would have been gone in a second.

I am guessing both A350 and 787 will be either deferred or reduced. The order of A321 should stay intact.
I won’t be surprised that we see similar announcements from other QR. I have been expecting this for some time.

Cancel the 777X
Defer and cancel a portion of the A350, first delivery postponed to 2019/2020
787 should be fine, perhaps defer/cancel a portion
A321 should be fine

kmz · Sun May 06, 2018 7:06 pm

MD80MKE wrote:
A321neo are probably the safest among them all. Given the fact that they already have a decent size of 787 fleet, it would be logical to take deliveries for this year and defer all of the rest on order. Part of A350-900 order would probably be cancelled as they are overlapped with 787-9 a little bit, but I would bet EY will keep the all the A35K to replace their 77W as they have almost identical seat count. 77X will be most definitely outright cancelled, that order was ordered for growth. With the demand for EY right now, no way in the world they need aircraft that large and heavy. That will burn their money as quickly as it could. Going for lighter and cheaper A35K is a more logical path for EY if they want to stop bleeding.

I agree. If the A35k is the better B777-300ER successor, than it has a future at EY. A359 and B779 have to worry...

Swadian · Sun May 06, 2018 7:17 pm

kaitak wrote:
Ironic that just up the road, EK is having to park aircraft as not enough crews.

With regard to 777X order, BA is reported to be ready to order this type in the near future, so maybe possible to take over this order, at least the -9 part of it.

A350, I agree ... new type not needed at this time.

As to A330, I thought the plan was to get rid of these altogether and focus on 787-9. I would say that 787 order definitely to be reduced, but o/s order for -9s to stay in place.

A321 order probably mostly to be converted to 320s?

Would be interesting to see if EK took over some of this order, as part of private arrangement between two carriers, or perhaps even Qatar - certainly no private arrangement, but QR (and Qatar itself) would probably enjoy an opportunity to take some acft intended for QR, just as a little message to the UAE!

You mean intended for EY?

No need to convert A321 to A320; EY needs more A321 and less widebodies to curb capacity and improve yield.

Eyad89 wrote:
I Agree with most, 777X is the first to be canceled. It is the most expensive to operate. Airbus is lucky that they delivered all of EY A380s, otherwise, they would have been gone in a second.

I am guessing both A350 and 787 will be either deferred or reduced. The order of A321 should stay intact.
I won’t be surprised that we see similar announcements from other QR. I have been expecting this for some time.

If they need to replace all A330s, the 787 order may be prudent. EY doesn't need anything bigger than 78J, A380 is way too big.

Channex757 · Sun May 06, 2018 7:20 pm

With Etihad if you cut out some of the willy-waving ordering of aircraft there is the core of a profitable, almost boutique airline there. It will take some fresh thinking and the Emir to swallow his pride on this.

The fleet should go A21N, 789, A35K and A380. The Airbus A350 order to be restructured around replacing the 773ER as the planes come due, and the A359 renegotiated to A35K instead.

This gives them a chance at some yield without the overweight 777-8 and 777-9 which will need high seat occupancy to pay their hefty bills. The A35K will be cheaper to run and easier to fill, and the 789 can cover anything the 777-8 would be needed for.

Trim the fleet and put investment into product.

waly777 · Sun May 06, 2018 7:34 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
What was the thought process of Etihad ordering so many aircraft? I assume some are for replacement, but that still leaves quite a few aircraft. Did the airline have unrealistic expectations or have market conditions changed for them since ordering the planes?

Mine is bigger than yours?

No. The thought process was likely ordering to fulfil the needs of EY and their partners. But as the partnership has largely gone downhill, the orders will have to reduce.

The 787's will definitely stay as they've replaced the 340's and will replace the 330's as well as growth when the time is right. The 777-8/9 isn't going anywhere as they are one of the few carriers that need the payload range of the -8 and they are a 10 abreast 777 carrier, plus 380 replacement further down the line. The neos aren't going anywhere either.

waly777 · Sun May 06, 2018 7:37 pm

xwb777 wrote:
In EY inflight magazine ( April 2018 issue), the B777X is not included in the future fleet. Only the A350 is present.

So i think the B777X will be cancelled.

The 777x is considered under the 777 family.

Jayafe · Sun May 06, 2018 7:44 pm

waly777 wrote:
...The 777-8/9 isn't going anywhere as they are one of the few carriers that need the payload range of the -8 and they are a 10 abreast 777 carrier, plus 380 replacement further down the line.

You are aware that its latest A380 is 1 year old, and its oldest is 4 years old, right? Are you suggesting they are thinking about replacing a fleet 2.5 years old average, talking about birds intended to last 25-30 years? :shock:

Newbiepilot · Sun May 06, 2018 7:51 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised to see larger A350s and 777s deferred or cancelled, but from Airbus and Boeing’s perspective, they would likely be more flexible with A321neos and 787s. 787s and A321neo slots are popular and easy to move around. Production slots will be easily reassigned and they have strong secondary used markets. However, I could see Etihad willing to pay cancellation fees to get out of the more expensive larger planes since they are trying to save money.

waly777 · Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 pm

Jayafe wrote:
waly777 wrote:
...The 777-8/9 isn't going anywhere as they are one of the few carriers that need the payload range of the -8 and they are a 10 abreast 777 carrier, plus 380 replacement further down the line.

You are aware that its latest A380 is 1 year old, and its oldest is 4 years old, right? Are you suggesting they are thinking about replacing a fleet 2.5 years old average, talking about birds intended to last 25-30 years?

Please re-read what I wrote... "further down the line". I.e. whenever it is due for replacement and also ME3 tend not to keep aircraft for that long @ 25-30 years

N14AZ · Sun May 06, 2018 8:13 pm

Good lord... as always, people are now posting their favorite outcome as if we could influence the decision by the number of posts in favor of one aircraft...

JoKeR · Sun May 06, 2018 8:32 pm

Wonder what will happen to 320neo orders for JU and HM, two airlines they still have equity in? Or should we assume they’ll be getting out of these investments as well?

Blerg · Sun May 06, 2018 8:34 pm

JoKeR wrote:
Wonder what will happen to 320neo orders for JU and HM, two airlines they still have equity in? Or should we assume they’ll be getting out of these investments as well?

Current plan for JU is that maximum two planes are coming and that's not even sure anymore.

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