ET has been granted Accra Texas 5th freedom.
https://www.modernghana.com/news/851918 ... ights.html

https://newsroom.aviator.aero/ethiopian ... and-texas/

Very odd/sketchy articles but it would be nice to see Ethiopian in Texas. It doesn’t mention a city, just “Texas.” I would imagine it would be Houston due to the Star Alliance hub there, but I’m pretty sure Dallas/DFW has a much larger Ethiopian community. I guess we’ll have to wait and see!

Houston.

Ethiopian has stated their interest on Houston after their last US city pick. Would not be surprised if the flight is launched from Houston.

I'd like to see the receipts. There's just no way most/any of ET's longhaul network makes money.

MaverickM11 wrote:

I'd like to see the receipts. There's just no way most/any of ET's longhaul network makes money.

Well it’s actually a pretty good money maker for them. From my understanding a lot of their intra-African network is hamstrung by its inability to repatriate funds from certain countries, and by instability and depreciation of African currencies. Their intercontinental routes, even if not profitable (though all accounts indicate that they are) are source of stable foreign currency that is vital to the airline.

Every time I’ve flown them, load factors have been healthy and prices not particularly cheap.

MaverickM11 wrote:

I'd like to see the receipts. There's just no way most/any of ET's longhaul network makes money.

ET's profits for 2016-17 were $260M. What part of their network do you think makes the money?

All kidding aside, IAH is the likely destination, however it is interesting that no one city is mentioned. Who knows, it might be DFW, unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

I'm surprised they're going via ACC to be honest, when they have a successful hub at DUB already - DUB has no link to Texas, is high-yielding in its own right, and a DUB stop makes for a shorter overall routing than with an ACC one:

ADD - DUB - IAH: 8,509 mi
ADD - ACC - IAH: 9,022 mi



Cheers,

C.

planemanofnz wrote:

I'm surprised they're going via ACC to be honest, when they have a successful hub at DUB already - DUB has no link to Texas, is high-yielding in its own right, and a DUB stop makes for a shorter overall routing than with an ACC one:

Cheers,

C.

I'm not actually. I imagine with the oil industry in Texas and booming oil discoveries in Ghana, Benin, etc. there would be decent traffic. Plus Ghana is the most stable country in West Africa and wealthy Nigerians park money there. I've been visiting Accra for the last 15 years and the last time I was there it was unrecognizable. Almost becoming the Dubai of West Africa.

Smart move!

With the oil industry quickly rising from the grave, Houston will pull by leaps and bounds to secure this flight. Very excited to see ET in Texas, nonetheless!

csavel wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

I'm surprised they're going via ACC to be honest, when they have a successful hub at DUB already - DUB has no link to Texas, is high-yielding in its own right, and a DUB stop makes for a shorter overall routing than with an ACC one:

Cheers,

C.

I'm not actually. I imagine with the oil industry in Texas and booming oil discoveries in Ghana, Benin, etc. there would be decent traffic. Plus Ghana is the most stable country in West Africa and wealthy Nigerians park money there. I've been visiting Accra for the last 15 years and the last time I was there it was unrecognizable. Almost becoming the Dubai of West Africa.

Smart move!

Besides all that we need to rejoin the ‘6 Continent Club’.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

ACC? I’d understand if they were talking about LOS or another Nigerian airport but that one makes no sense. Almost all the demand to ACC comes from NYC and DC.

Ghana has the 5th largest petroleum deposits in Africa, most of which has just started being developed in the last decade. Although I agree with you, it’s a bit of a risky bet since IAH-LOS (which is a much more established oil market) apparently never operated in the black.

There is their *A partner in IAH, if they can work out a codeshare arrangement, but ET and UA don’t appear to be cozy bedfellows...

MaverickM11 wrote:

I'd like to see the receipts. There's just no way most/any of ET's longhaul network makes money.

I have my doubts too. They have exceptionally low labor costs, probably the lowest of any major carrier in the world by a long way, and also exceptionally generous US financing of their Boeing aircraft. Both of these give them the lowest unit cost of any major airline in the world.

planemanofnz wrote:

I'm surprised they're going via ACC to be honest, when they have a successful hub at DUB already - DUB has no link to Texas, is high-yielding in its own right, and a DUB stop makes for a shorter overall routing than with an ACC one:

I don't know what your definition of a hub is? They have 4 weekly flights from ADD-DUB-LAX with traffic rights, the others are just tech stop on west-bound sector. That's not a hub.

They'd rather look for 5th freedom through Africa where they have a strong brand and excellent distribution network, just like they have on ACC-LFW-EWR and soon on ACC-ABJ-EWR.

MaverickM11 wrote:

I'd like to see the receipts. There's just no way most/any of ET's longhaul network makes money.

I'll agree that their North American services minus IAD and YYZ are rather strange. But I'm pretty sure ET is at least breaking even or close to doing so on these particular routes. I think ET views these services as a form of brand introduction, and long term strategy.

ET is notorious for being rather market driven; if they don't like the results of an operation they will easily drop or restructure the flight. The rest of the network is definitely money making. ET has strong brand recognition in Africa, and is additionally known for operating the most modern aircraft with good services, whereas most carriers send their worst cabins to Africa.

I hope this means they are adding second frequency to ADD-ACC not displacing local Accra passengers off of the already usually full ADD-ACC sector...

usflyer msp wrote:

I hope this means they are adding second frequency to ADD-ACC not displacing local Accra passengers off of the already usually full ADD-ACC sector...

When you compare the current timings to the Addis Ababa-Lome-Newark flight, one could expect them to just continue to Houston:

The current ADD-ACC-ADD timing is as follows:
ADD ACC 8:40 am 11:20 am
ACC ADD 12:20pm 9:00pm

Consider ADD-LFW-EWR-LFW-ADD
ADD LFW 8:30am 11:00am
LFW EWR 12:00pm 7:00pm
EWR LFW 9:15am 11:35am
LFW ACC 12:35pm 9:10pm

evanb wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

I hope this means they are adding second frequency to ADD-ACC not displacing local Accra passengers off of the already usually full ADD-ACC sector...

When you compare the current timings to the Addis Ababa-Lome-Newark flight, one could expect them to just continue to Houston:

The current ADD-ACC-ADD timing is as follows:
ADD ACC 8:40 am 11:20 am
ACC ADD 12:20pm 9:00pm

Consider ADD-LFW-EWR-LFW-ADD
ADD LFW 8:30am 11:00am
LFW EWR 12:00pm 7:00pm
EWR LFW 9:15am 11:35am
LFW ACC 12:35pm 9:10pm

I am not sure about that - ACC-IAH is significantly longer than LFW-EWR so I doubt they could turn the aircraft in time to make it back to ACC in time to keep the existing schedule.

I could see them adding a second ADD-ACC flight a few days a week that continues to IAH
ADD ACC 11:00pm 1:40am
ACC IAH 2:45am 10:00 am
IAH ACC 7:00pm 1:00pm
ACC ADD 2:10pm 10:50pm

usflyer msp wrote:

I am not sure about that - ACC-IAH is significantly longer than LFW-EWR so I doubt they could turn the aircraft in time to make it back to ACC in time to keep the existing schedule.

I could see them adding a second ADD-ACC flight a few days a week that continues to IAH
ADD ACC 11:00pm 1:40am
ACC IAH 2:45am 10:00 am
IAH ACC 7:00pm 1:00pm
ACC ADD 2:10pm 10:50pm

True. The current ADD-ACC-ADD timings are targeted towards Asian connections. I guess they might keep the current flight where it is. The Houston flight will likely be an extra (hopefully) and have a much later departure from Houston, to get an early morning arrival into Addis (similar to LAX times).

iadadd wrote:

I'll agree that their North American services minus IAD and YYZ are rather strange.

...then you should come take a ride through the north Fairfax area here in LAX.
So many Ethiopian (and east African in general) businesses/people that you'd think you stepped through a spatial warp.

It's easily the 2nd largest Ethiopian immigrant and the 2nd largest 1st-generation Ethiopian-American city in the USA; both after only WAS and both well ahead of NYC.

Not sure why YYZ is even considered a factor, considering that LAX alone has nearly three times more foreign born and 1st-generation Ethiopians than all of Canada, let alone just YYZ.

mfe777 wrote:

Very odd/sketchy articles but it would be nice to see Ethiopian in Texas. It doesn’t mention a city, just “Texas.” I would imagine it would be Houston due to the Star Alliance hub there, but I’m pretty sure Dallas/DFW has a much larger Ethiopian community. I guess we’ll have to wait and see!

What about LBB? It *is* one of only 42 airports within the CNN Airport Network

And people on here actually called me stupid for saying Ethiopian should come to IAH.

Airontario wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

Not sure why YYZ is even considered a factor, considering that LAX alone has nearly three times more foreign born and 1st-generation Ethiopians than all of Canada, let alone just YYZ.

I can assure you ET is doing well at YYZ.

No one suggested that they aren't.

The statement was to rebut the erroneous presumption that LAX is somehow a "strange" component of ET's network.

If this is IAH they're going to, that puts the airport back in the 6-continent club. Thanks pretty exciting news in my opinion.

Wasn't Accra to Houston operated for a while by Atlas Air passenger aircraft? Very big oil route, with regional flights onward from Accra to the oil fields.

https://newsroom.aviator.aero/ethiopian ... texas/amp/

This article confirms that the destination is IAD. I wonder what aircraft will be used. The current ADD-ACC is with an A359. But I've seen everything from a 737, 773 and 787 on the route in recent times.

LAX772LR wrote:

iadadd wrote:

I'll agree that their North American services minus IAD and YYZ are rather strange.

...then you should come take a ride through the north Fairfax area here in LAX.
So many Ethiopian (and east African in general) businesses/people that you'd think you stepped through a spatial warp.

It's easily the 2nd largest Ethiopian immigrant and the 2nd largest 1st-generation Ethiopian-American city in the USA; both after only WAS and both well ahead of NYC.

Not sure why YYZ is even considered a factor, considering that LAX alone has nearly three times more foreign born and 1st-generation Ethiopians than all of Canada, let alone just YYZ.

Haha, I made a mistake by not adding LAX to my good list. As an Ethiopian-American, I actually have lots of family in SoCal and understand the volume of traffic. But YYZ also has a large Ethiopian community, and YYZ additionally has a hub to feed U.S. Midwest traffic

LAXdude1023 wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

iadadd wrote:

I'll agree that their North American services minus IAD and YYZ are rather strange.

...then you should come take a ride through the north Fairfax area here in LAX.
So many Ethiopian (and east African in general) businesses/people that you'd think you stepped through a spatial warp.

It's easily the 2nd largest Ethiopian immigrant and the 2nd largest 1st-generation Ethiopian-American city in the USA; both after only WAS and both well ahead of NYC.

Not sure why YYZ is even considered a factor, considering that LAX alone has nearly three times more foreign born and 1st-generation Ethiopians than all of Canada, let alone just YYZ.

Not true. The below is a list of the top 10 foreign born Ethiopian populations in the US. Honestly, only DC really has the bulk to make it work off that alone:

Ethiopia
1. Washington DC: 53,076 people
2. Minneapolis: 22,302
3. Seattle: 17,573
4. Atlanta: 16,520
5. Dallas: 9889
6. Los Angeles: 9479
7. Las Vegas: 7501
8. San Francisco: 6520
9. Houston: 6285
10. New York: 6021

Ethiopian-American statistics are highly underestimated, as most of it conducted through surveys and "Ethiopian" is not a detailed option on the U.S. census unlike how the Asian category is further detailed into country specific boxes. That being said, LA is definitely a #2 or #3 in terms of the Ethio diaspora, there is no way Seattle or Dallas has a higher amount than LA.

TWA772LR wrote:

And people on here actually called me stupid for saying Ethiopian should come to IAH.

They aren't in Houston yet until it happens it's just another rumor.

Surprised the SF bay area is not much higher, so many ethiopians here.

Channex757 wrote:

Wasn't Accra to Houston operated for a while by Atlas Air passenger aircraft? Very big oil route, with regional flights onward from Accra to the oil fields.

That was Luanda (LAD), in Angola.

slowrambler wrote:

MaverickM11 wrote:

I'd like to see the receipts. There's just no way most/any of ET's longhaul network makes money.

ET's profits for 2016-17 were $260M. What part of their network do you think makes the money?

I’d guess anything within about a 6 hour radius from ADD pays for the rest of the network.

evanb wrote:

That's not a hub.

Eh, according to several outlets, yes, it is.

See, for example:
- https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... to-dublin/.
- https://www.irishtimes.com/business/tra ... -1.2178315.

A hub doesn't have to be an ATL or IAH.

evanb wrote:

They'd rather look for 5th freedom through Africa where they have a strong brand ...

That so-called 'strong brand' will mean nothing if/when oil tanks again - starting routes on the premise of oil traffic (which is notoriously volatile) is a risky proposition.

IMO, it would've been much more sensible to go through DUB, which:

- Results in a shorter routing from ADD, than via ACC
- Is high-yielding and balanced (i.e. non-oil dependent)
- Already has ET US operations and ground contracts

Aside from these, ACC is less attractive for crew-layovers and transits - Ghana is endemic for yellow fever, as well as malaria, and is suffering from increased crime.

See: http://smartraveller.gov.au/Countries/a ... ghana.aspx.

Cheers,

C.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Not true. The below is a list of the top 10 foreign born Ethiopian populations in the US. Honestly, only DC really has the bulk to make it work off that alone:

Because that's only foreign born. I was mistaken on comparative city counts for foreign-born only (thanks Wikipedia), but accurately ranked on the combined total with the next generation, 90K+.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

iadadd wrote:

Ethiopian-American statistics are highly underestimated, as most of it conducted through surveys and "Ethiopian" is not a detailed option on the U.S. census unlike how the Asian category is further detailed into country specific boxes.

Everyone says this about their own ethnic group. EVERYBODY. Everyone thinks their own ethnic group is undercounted but the fact of the matter is that simply isn’t the case.

Based on what? I'd be shocked if EVERY ethnic group *wasn't* undercounted

LAXdude1023 wrote:

2) How many 2nd and 3rd generation Ethiopians are flying to Ethiopia regularly.

Or for that matter, how many first, if we're talking "regularly?" Higher than succeeding generations sure, but doubtful to be significant enough in/of itself significant enough to support routes of that length.

MaverickM11 wrote:

I’d guess anything within about a 6 hour radius from ADD pays for the rest of the network.

That includes a lot of corrupt countries that they can’t repatriate money from (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Zimbabwe, Congo, Chad etc) and/or have unstable currencies. Doing business in Africa is hard, and to my understanding, it’s the long haul network that makes the actual money.

MaverickM11 wrote:

slowrambler wrote:

MaverickM11 wrote:

I'd like to see the receipts. There's just no way most/any of ET's longhaul network makes money.

ET's profits for 2016-17 were $260M. What part of their network do you think makes the money?

I’d guess anything within about a 6 hour radius from ADD pays for the rest of the network.

Let me introduce this place called "China"... (most of Europe is also past the 6 hour mark from ADD.)

In all seriousness, ET doesn't mess around with prestige routes. If they fly to locations in North America, it's because they expect to make money.

slowrambler wrote:

MaverickM11 wrote:

slowrambler wrote:

ET's profits for 2016-17 were $260M. What part of their network do you think makes the money?

I’d guess anything within about a 6 hour radius from ADD pays for the rest of the network.

Let me introduce this place called "China"... (most of Europe is also past the 6 hour mark from ADD.)

In all seriousness, ET doesn't mess around with prestige routes. If they fly to locations in North America, it's because they expect to make money.

Well aware. While ET probably is able to command a premium in this market, the fares are still regularly in the $700-900 range for what is essentially 15-20 hours of flying each way. That's ultimately $300-400 for the carrier, each way. China-Africa is like a mirage for a lot of carriers that end up getting burned by it, although ET is probably the dominant carrier. Europe is also incredibly competitive in large one stop markets (ie JNB) or tiny markets (ie OUA) where every North African carrier, EU major, TK, and ET are competing for crumbs.

dredgy wrote:

MaverickM11 wrote:

I’d guess anything within about a 6 hour radius from ADD pays for the rest of the network.

That includes a lot of corrupt countries that they can’t repatriate money from (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Zimbabwe, Congo, Chad etc) and/or have unstable currencies.

No question--a lot of those countries are also the most profitable too.

ET's core profits annually come from:

1. Intra Africa flying
2. Cargo operations
3. Maintenance unit

A vast majority of their long haul services make an "operating cash profit" but not "net profit".

behramjee wrote:

ET's core profits annually come from:

1. Intra Africa flying
2. Cargo operations
3. Maintenance unit

A vast majority of their long haul services make an "operating cash profit" but not "net profit".

Having difficulty finding public documents that justify this. In particular I would be very surprised if Africa-Africa flows dominated profit, as opposed to Africa-intercontinental transit. In the latter case it's purely a matter of accounting where the "profit" is, because (e.g.) if they did not operate ADD-CAN, they would have fewer passengers on ENU-ADD.

planemanofnz wrote:

Eh, according to several outlets, yes, it is.

I'm not sure how you or these outlets would define a hub, but the generally accepted term is an airport when an airline connects passengers from one flight to another, usually multiple. Ethiopian does not do this at Dublin. They simply refuel some of their westbound North American flights there. Only LAX stops in Dublin on the eastbound leg, and only LAX has passenger rights to/from Dublin, so that is one passenger flight 4x per week only.

planemanofnz wrote:

That so-called 'strong brand' will mean nothing if/when oil tanks again - starting routes on the premise of oil traffic (which is notoriously volatile) is a risky proposition.

IMO, it would've been much more sensible to go through DUB, which:

- Results in a shorter routing from ADD, than via ACC
- Is high-yielding and balanced (i.e. non-oil dependent)
- Already has ET US operations and ground contracts

Aside from these, ACC is less attractive for crew-layovers and transits - Ghana is endemic for yellow fever, as well as malaria, and is suffering from increased crime.

Firstly, you're assuming that the Accra-Houston traffic will all be oil related or dependent. I think this is a poor assumption. Accra-New York and Accra-Washington have been strong performing routes for Delta and SAA for some time, even when oil prices were low. Houston is a strong Star Alliance hub and will be more than just an oil route. Secondly, given ET's already strong US operations, this increases their understanding of the market and hence reduced the risk of starting a new US route. Hub-to-hub routes are generally lower risk than non-hub routes. Thirdly, strong yields are not what drives ET. They have the lowest unit cost of any major global airline and they thrive on filling the plane, not driven entirely by yield. For example, their unit cost is more than 30% lower than BA's. But also, why the assumption that Dublin will have a higher yield? While it might be higher income country, there is also a lot more competition, and unlike the competition in Dublin, they don't have a TAJV. And finally, I don't think Accra is any less attractive for crew-layovers. ET crews layover in yellow fever and malaria endemic countries all the time. And in terms of transits, it's probably way better than some neighboring countries like Nigeria.

if Dublin were such a good option they'd already be seeking 5th freedom routes from Dublin to Chicago, Newark, Washington and Toronto, but they're not.

evanb wrote:

... if Dublin were such a good option they'd already be seeking 5th freedom routes from Dublin to Chicago, Newark, Washington and Toronto, but they're not.

AFAIK, they actually did seek those, but couldn't get them - LAX was granted because, at the time, no other carrier served LAX from DUB (unlike with the others). I'd be confident that, under the same premise, ET would get 5th freedom rights to IAH, as no airline currently flies between Ireland and Texas.

That being said, ET probably knows more than me, so ...

Cheers,

C.