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Zoedyn
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Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 2:58 pm

An illuminating piece regarding rivalry btwn high speed rail and air travel on some key routes Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Research findings reveal that while trains can supplant air travel if door-to-door time and price are equal or better, the entry of high-speed rail in markets dominated by airlines doesn’t always result in fewer available flights in reality —there’s evidence that, in many places, affordable train tickets actually stimulate new travel demand

The chart below gives some examples of key global routes where high speed trains and planes can compare
Image


Besides the examples listed here, are there any other busy routes you think well worth having a high speed rail link as an alternative to air travel? How could LCCs compete with high speed trains for a fair market share? To what extent could the French TGV be a reason for the weak presence of regional cities of France on the global aviation scene?
Last edited by SQ22 on Sat May 05, 2018 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
Italianflyer
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:20 pm

For O&D there is no question that high speed rail cuts air travel numbers. It's not necessarily a bad thing; the skies above most the listed city pairs are some of the most congested in the world. High speed rail can't compete with medium-longer haul connecting markets like BRU-LON-DUB or obviouly BRU-LON-N.America.
 
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c933103
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:31 pm

I don't think you need 7 hours to take the train from Beijing to Shanghai.
 
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Jamake1
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:33 pm

It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.
 
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c933103
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:35 pm

ZKOJH wrote:
Interesting where do they get the numbers from -

Example PEK-PVG by Plane is less than 2 hrs flying time - and the train is now around 4.5 hrs long.

It say door to door which would also include times like other land transportation connected or time for check in or security check but I don't think those need 2 hours especially for the train
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:36 pm

Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

When did New York City and Washington DC leave the Union?
 
ZKOJH
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:36 pm

Interesting where do they get the numbers from -

Example PEK-PVG by Plane is less than 2 hrs flying time - and the train is now around 4.5 hrs long.
 
planecane
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:39 pm

khowaga wrote:
ZKOJH wrote:
Interesting where do they get the numbers from -

Example PEK-PVG by Plane is less than 2 hrs flying time - and the train is now around 4.5 hrs long.


They’re including the time you have to arrive to the airport in advance, clear security, and hang around the airport before your flight actually leaves (“dwell time” they call it).


How long until terrorist fears or reality related to trains causes the need for the same "security" process?
 
khowaga
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:39 pm

ZKOJH wrote:
Interesting where do they get the numbers from -

Example PEK-PVG by Plane is less than 2 hrs flying time - and the train is now around 4.5 hrs long.


They’re including the time you have to arrive to the airport in advance, clear security, and hang around the airport before your flight actually leaves (“dwell time” they call it).
 
Someone83
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:44 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
How could LCCs compete with high speed trains for a fair market share?


Often they can compete on price, as high speed trains often are rather expensive. But not always

And one factor, a lot of the city pairs mentioned here, the airports are often congested or severe slot restricted. Meaning that more passenger on the trains here, can open the possibilities for more routes.

If BA was to having to fly +20 daily flight to both Brussels and Paris, these slots had to come from somewhere ;)
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:45 pm

Often the comparisons are done Downtown to Downtown, so the commute from DT to the Airport gets included in the total time.

At least in the US we are horrible connecting rapid transit to the Airport, in SEA the airport rail station is about a 5 minute walk - to the farthest reaches of the parking garage - so about 15 minutes brisk walk with the bags to get into the airport, just pray your check in isn't at the far end. So passengers are rather sparse.
 
khowaga
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:46 pm

planecane wrote:
khowaga wrote:
ZKOJH wrote:
Interesting where do they get the numbers from -

Example PEK-PVG by Plane is less than 2 hrs flying time - and the train is now around 4.5 hrs long.


They’re including the time you have to arrive to the airport in advance, clear security, and hang around the airport before your flight actually leaves (“dwell time” they call it).


How long until terrorist fears or reality related to trains causes the need for the same "security" process?


Some do already, don’t they? I know I’ve been through scanners in Spain, as well as in Mexico when I took the bus to the Mexico City airport from Quertaro. I just didn’t need to check in 60 minutes early because I handled my own luggage, I guess?
 
OKCDCA
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:59 pm

Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 3:59 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Often the comparisons are done Downtown to Downtown, so the commute from DT to the Airport gets included in the total time.

At least in the US we are horrible connecting rapid transit to the Airport, in SEA the airport rail station is about a 5 minute walk - to the farthest reaches of the parking garage - so about 15 minutes brisk walk with the bags to get into the airport, just pray your check in isn't at the far end. So passengers are rather sparse.


Certainly that’s true some places but OTOH there are large airports in other parts of the world with difficult or nonexistent transit connections (CDG), and there are US airports with easy connections (DCA, ORD, STL).
 
TasosANG
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:08 pm

Depending also where you leave. For some people is easier to reach an airport than a main train station where the high speed train usually leaves. With such a small ( most of the times) ticket price, and time difference I think often for the passenger is not so important the “ how fast” or “how expensive “ but the what is more convenien. The same applies for your destination. May be the airport or the train station location is not so convenient for someone. The airlines they have enough competition between them on this busy lines. The high speed train can add even more, but in the end all of them they will found their way. Their loyal passengers, the last minutes passengers that they will choose according their needs at the last moment. At the end of the day, a healthy competition is good for the passenger. Better services and prices are always very welcomed.
 
sagechan
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:20 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


Kinda like the huge government subsidies that drivers get and that built the US aviation system? Regional HSR in the US makes a lot of sense, bloated construction costs need brought down though. HSR for 200-500mi large city to large city runs make a lot of sense.
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:33 pm

Some rail services do indeed implement some level of security screening - Eurostar services through the Channel Tunnel are one, though they don't apply the LGA rules used in international aviation. Additionally, because the UK and French border authorities operate what pretty much amounts to pre-clearance at each end, they require passengers to check-in before departure (though for J passengers the deadline is 10 minutes prior).

I can't really see aviation-style security ever extending to railway services purely based on practicality across the number of stations served, but obviously it can work for express services, particularly those that pass through major pieces of infrastructure.

Until then, though, the turn-up-and-go nature of rail travel does give it a brilliant competitive edge on journeys over short distances. A particular benefit too is that border controls can be performed while the train is in motion, such as on the Allegro service between Helsinki and St Petersburg, and customs checks on trains between Switzerland and its EU neighbours.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:36 pm

Kuala lumper - singapore
Tokyo - fukouka
Boston-new york-philadelpha-baltimore-washinton dc
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:44 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

When did New York City and Washington DC leave the Union?


It's a shame that there is high speed infrastructure in place to serve those areas, avoiding pollution and congestion to be spread around with the current "only car/only plane" mindset that is anchoring US infrastructure in general into the XIX-XX century.

OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


Said by the only developed country that is unable to handle a rail infrastructure properly giving a decent service. The fact that the US don't understand/like/can manage high speed trains is an example of lack of awareness, technology and capacity, not an example that the rest of the world is wrong.
 
itchief
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:45 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


Another reason high speed rail does not work in the USA, distance. All of the above routes are not that long. Even the 1 USA high speed route listed is pretty short. The US is a BIG place with major cities a long distance apart.
 
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Goose
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:51 pm

c933103 wrote:
I don't think you need 7 hours to take the train from Beijing to Shanghai.

Really depends on how fast you're going. It's about 1100 kilometers distance.
 
Swadian
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 4:56 pm

sagechan wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


Kinda like the huge government subsidies that drivers get and that built the US aviation system? Regional HSR in the US makes a lot of sense, bloated construction costs need brought down though. HSR for 200-500mi large city to large city runs make a lot of sense.


There's not many large cities that close to each other in the US. Most cities in Asia and Europe drawf American cities in population. Most "large" American cities are "medium" by world standards.
Jayafe wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

When did New York City and Washington DC leave the Union?


It's a shame that there is high speed infrastructure in place to serve those areas, avoiding pollution and congestion to be spread around with the current "only car/only plane" mindset that is anchoring US infrastructure in general into the XIX-XX century.

OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


Said by the only developed country that is unable to handle a rail infrastructure properly giving a decent service. The fact that the US don't understand/like/can manage high speed trains is an example of lack of awareness, technology and capacity, not an example that the rest of the world is wrong.


Actually, you are mistaken. Australia and Canada have no better rail service than the USA.

itchief wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


Another reason high speed rail does not work in the USA, distance. All of the above routes are not that long. Even the 1 USA high speed route listed is pretty short. The US is a BIG place with major cities a long distance apart.


Indeed, the distance from NYC to Dallas is similar to the distance from Paris to Moscow, and there's no high-speed rail between Paris and Moscow.

The US used to have some of the world's fastest trains (even faster than American trains today) which were somewhat profitably run by private railroads, but only because they could afford to charge the equivalent of today's $1500 for a one-way ticket from Chicago to Los Angeles. When DC-8s and 707s undercut trains on both speed and price, trains could no longer be profitable. That's why most trains in the US were discontinued in the 1960s.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 5:00 pm

Zoedyn wrote:

[b]Besides the examples listed here, are there any other busy routes you think well worth having a high speed rail link as an alternative to air travel?


I'll let you - or the numb-nuts at Bloomberg - point to the high speed rail lines where ticket prices cover full cost of operation and capital costs, and then we can talk.

The quality of economic argument presented here is just shameful.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 5:10 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
Besides the examples listed here, are there any other busy routes you think well worth having a high speed rail link as an alternative to air travel?

Kuala Lumpur (KUL) to Singapore (SIN). Busiest international route worldwide but only 160 nm apart. Both cities are fairly dense and the airport in KL is quite far from the city centre.

Jakarta (CGK) to Yogyakarta (JOG). Only 250 nm and probably the busiest route in Indonesia, except perhaps Jakarta to Bali (which is far too long for rail). Especially with existing ground transport in Indonesia being extremely slow this could be quite competitive. However, air fares in Indonesia are also extremely low, as little as USD 20 a week in advance.

Anything in Vietnam. Vietnam is so long and thin that a single HSR line should be able to connect most population centres. Hanoi to Saigon is perhaps a bit far at 600 nm but to and from any secondary city, HSR should offer competitive times. Largest competitor would be the bus since Vietnam actually has decent highways.

Prague to Germany or Austria. The Czech Republic has comparatively slow railways (and the connecting sections in Germany are just as slow) and even though the demand might not be sufficient (yet), Prague to Munich or Prague to Berlin should be prime contenders for HSR.

London to Amsterdam. The tunnel is a bit too far off the great circle route and the rail between Calais and Amsterdam isn't really high-speed either iirc. A pretty popular route too.

San Francisco to Los Angeles.
Just under 300 nm, a bit longer than Tokyo - Osaka, and clearly a popular route. Since there isn't much reason to stop inbetween, a proper HSR link should do the trip in about 2 to 2.5 hours.
 
michman
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 5:11 pm

sagechan wrote:

Kinda like the huge government subsidies that drivers get and that built the US aviation system? Regional HSR in the US makes a lot of sense, bloated construction costs need brought down though. HSR for 200-500mi large city to large city runs make a lot of sense.


Drivers pay for road construction through fuel taxes. Air passengers pay 7.5% excise tax, plus $4.20 segment tax, plus $4.50 PFC's. Show me the fees in Amtrak tickets that pay for the subsidies from the government? Oh that's right, there aren't any. As usual, the rail fans make unsubstantiated claims with no supporting facts or evidence.
 
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huaiwei
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 5:21 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
Besides the examples listed here, are there any other busy routes you think well worth having a high speed rail link as an alternative to air travel?

Kuala Lumpur (KUL) to Singapore (SIN). Busiest international route worldwide but only 160 nm apart. Both cities are fairly dense and the airport in KL is quite far from the city centre.

This route coming up 2026.

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/e ... s/hsr.html
 
2175301
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 5:38 pm

There are 2 key problems with American High Speed Rail (HSR)

1) In the vast majority of cases the existing Freight Tracks cannot be upgraded to accommodate HSR. Structurally the two are very different - especially on curves and when changing grades. The uses are incompatible with each other.

2) Construction of separate rail systems requires land... and as a private enterprise any HSR cannot use public condemnation of land. As a result the estimated cost of land acquisition alone is 2.5 to 3 times the cost of where the government condemns the land for public benefit, and only a "fair market value" needs to be paid to the landowners.

I once did a reasonably detailed cost analysis of HSR or Mag-Lev between Chicago and Minneapolis, with 3 alternate routes; and even considering that you could have some "local" trains that stopped in intermediate places. Acquire land, build system and stations (including bypass/storage tracks and maintenance facilities), maintenance, emergency response/repair set-up cost, etc.

I think it might actually be cheaper to build new airports than what I came up with in the end...

Government condemnation of the routes would lower cost by about 20% to get it all up and running (Construction of lines and facilities was the most expensive component).

Have a great day,
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:04 pm

itchief wrote:
Another reason high speed rail does not work in the USA, distance. All of the above routes are not that long. Even the 1 USA high speed route listed is pretty short. The US is a BIG place with major cities a long distance apart.


Swadian wrote:
Actually, you are mistaken. Australia and Canada have no better rail service than the USA.


Bingo - long-distance rail at whatever speed works financially when trip distances are short enough to overcome the inherent speed advantages of flying, even when burdened with the time costs of pre- and post-flying rigmarole. In most Europe and many parts of Asia this is very much the case - witness the success of rail travel on routes like PAR-AMS, HAM-BER (which has no non-stop flights at all), and TYO-OSA.

Alter the figures used for distance, air passenger process time burdens, and rail speed, and the balance changes dramatically - an Australian example is SYD-CBR, which at a great-circle distance of 237 km (147 mi) is commonly held to be a stellar candidate for HSR. However no such HSR system has been built (and would be a political nightmare given the rail infrastructure and passenger operations environment in Australia), meaning that the current rail service is only three trains PDEW timetabled at just over four hours on a line takes a less-than-direct route at relatively-low speeds using an outdated safeworking system (train-order working, for the curious) and is constrained by capacity limits over much of its length by a need to share space with freight services, as well as increasing numbers of regional and suburban services closer to Sydney.

Meanwhile QF alone offer something like 17 services per weekday each-way, blocked for 55 mins gate-to-gate. Obviously one must allow extra time for terminal procedures but considering Australian domestic security screening is less rigorous than that used internationally and the excellent transport links to and from Sydney airport, it's not a hard contest.

Add distance and rail starts to drop off, especially if you don't make the trains all that much faster - so SYD-MEL, which is one of busiest flight corridors in the world by both frequency and passengers-carried, is blocked for 90-odd minutes GTG against a rail timetable of over eleven hours.

The disparity grows to be so vast that there are now only a handful of long-distance rail routes in Australia that still run at all aimed at "normal" travellers, most of them in NSW. The remainder, being the likes of SYD-PER, ADL-DRW, and to a lesser extent MEL-ADL, are pretty much entirely aimed at tourists.

And I believe all of the non-tourist runs are subsidised to some extent or another, which touches neatly on a point also made upthread. It's not a new one either - it's been a political hot-potato in both NSW and Victoria for years on the basis that the subsidy is at least partially justified to ensure some level of public-transport service to regional centres that have limited or no air service, but as a result there's little imperative to improve speed or amenity.

Even in Europe it's a sticky point - I remember watching a documentary made in 1991 lamenting the dire state of British Rail (and rail travel in the UK as a whole) in comparison to the likes of France and Germany where it was pointed out that BR was being held to expectations of performance similar to SNCF and DB but received barely a fraction of the subsidy, and was in fact on notice from Westminster that it would soon lose that fraction too.
 
blockski
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:17 pm

2175301 wrote:
There are 2 key problems with American High Speed Rail (HSR)

1) In the vast majority of cases the existing Freight Tracks cannot be upgraded to accommodate HSR. Structurally the two are very different - especially on curves and when changing grades. The uses are incompatible with each other.

2) Construction of separate rail systems requires land... and as a private enterprise any HSR cannot use public condemnation of land. As a result the estimated cost of land acquisition alone is 2.5 to 3 times the cost of where the government condemns the land for public benefit, and only a "fair market value" needs to be paid to the landowners.

I once did a reasonably detailed cost analysis of HSR or Mag-Lev between Chicago and Minneapolis, with 3 alternate routes; and even considering that you could have some "local" trains that stopped in intermediate places. Acquire land, build system and stations (including bypass/storage tracks and maintenance facilities), maintenance, emergency response/repair set-up cost, etc.

I think it might actually be cheaper to build new airports than what I came up with in the end...

Government condemnation of the routes would lower cost by about 20% to get it all up and running (Construction of lines and facilities was the most expensive component).

Have a great day,


Private railroads can (under the right cirucmstances) use eminent domain to take land. There’s a very long history of that via both state and federal eminent domain laws and the long history of railroading in the US.

Also, the ability to serve intermediate destinations is a feature, not a bug of HSR. Take the NEC and the Acela, as an example. Not only does it dominate air/rail market share from NYC to DC, but it also serves a whole lot of additional city pairs that would each require a totally extra flight (Baltimore, Philadelphia, Wilmington, etc). The time penalty for making a station stop is very small compared to doing so on a plane.

The NEC is also a very potentially lucrative rail market. Lots of big cities, not too far apart, all basically in a single line. The fact that the Acela is able to capture as much as it does despite mediocre performance is a testament to that.
 
LJ
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:23 pm

mxaxai wrote:
London to Amsterdam. The tunnel is a bit too far off the great circle route and the rail between Calais and Amsterdam isn't really high-speed either iirc. A pretty popular route too.
[i]


This route has alread been started . It's yet not ideal as you've to clear security at Brussels South Railway station when going to London, but that will be gone by next year. Total travel time is now 5h09m but this will be around the same time as the return (3h41m) when the security is at Amsterdam Centraal (though this wll be Amsterdam South in future) and currently only 1 daily.

BTW The train stops at Rotterdam Centraal (close to HQ of Unilever) as well and travel time is 30 minutes less.
 
9w748capt
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:29 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


It's so costly and inefficient because we've built our cities around the car and not the person. The horribly inefficient design of modern American cities (look at our beloved OKC) is to blame. No wonder we're so fat. I'll never understand at what point our planners decided it was illegal to actually walk somewhere.
 
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stl07
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:32 pm

While not that high speed at (soon to be)110 mph, Chicago-STL on Amtrak competes well against flying because once you add in all the extra time waiting around at the airport, it ends up being the same amount of time, but Amtrak is like a quarter of the price
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:34 pm

Jayafe wrote:
It's a shame that there is high speed infrastructure in place to serve those areas, avoiding pollution and congestion to be spread around with the current "only car/only plane" mindset that is anchoring US infrastructure in general into the XIX-XX century.


As an American taxpayer, I am glad we have never sunk money into high-speed rail. Thrilled even. High-speed rail does not make sense outside of the Northeast U.S. and it would suck money from more valuable infrastructure projects.

Saying U.S. infrastructure is "anchored in the 19th and 20th century" is just pompous nonsense.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:48 pm

planecane wrote:
khowaga wrote:

They’re including the time you have to arrive to the airport in advance, clear security, and hang around the airport before your flight actually leaves (“dwell time” they call it).


How long until terrorist fears or reality related to trains causes the need for the same "security" process?


Never.
Trains are not nearly as vulnerable to the same level of threat (both real and perceived) as air travel.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 6:59 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
It's a shame that there is high speed infrastructure in place to serve those areas, avoiding pollution and congestion to be spread around with the current "only car/only plane" mindset that is anchoring US infrastructure in general into the XIX-XX century.


As an American taxpayer, I am glad we have never sunk money into high-speed rail. Thrilled even. High-speed rail does not make sense outside of the Northeast U.S. and it would suck money from more valuable infrastructure projects.

Saying U.S. infrastructure is "anchored in the 19th and 20th century" is just pompous nonsense.


Its neither pompous nor nonsense.
What "more valuable infrastructure projects" have actually been undertaken in the US (particularly outside of the Northeast) with all that un-sucked money?
All I can identify are fairly local "pork barrel" projects carved out by legislators in return for political favor.
 
directorguy
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 7:32 pm

In India DEL-BOM is a 2 hour flight but 16 hours by the fastest Rajdhani train. BOM to CCU is like 30 hours vs 2h30 flight.
Even BOM to GOI which looks close on the map is an overnight trip.
Air fares in India on many routes are relatively cheap but only on the key trunk routes.
The only HSR project that I know of is AMD to BOM which is very costly and was mainly done for political reasons as the current PM is the Chief Minister for Gujarat where AMD is.
 
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SJL
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 7:37 pm

One massive market unlikely to be affected by high speed rail is MEL-SYD as well as other capital city connections within Australia. Although there are plans to connect east coast cities via HSR, VA and QF will continue to carry the bulk of non-car travellers for a great many years to come.
 
sagechan
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 7:40 pm

michman wrote:
sagechan wrote:

Kinda like the huge government subsidies that drivers get and that built the US aviation system? Regional HSR in the US makes a lot of sense, bloated construction costs need brought down though. HSR for 200-500mi large city to large city runs make a lot of sense.


Drivers pay for road construction through fuel taxes. Air passengers pay 7.5% excise tax, plus $4.20 segment tax, plus $4.50 PFC's. Show me the fees in Amtrak tickets that pay for the subsidies from the government? Oh that's right, there aren't any. As usual, the rail fans make unsubstantiated claims with no supporting facts or evidence.


https://taxfoundation.org/gasoline-taxe ... d-spending

Gas tax and tolls covers less than 40% of maintenance and construction costs and its dropping and total road spending dwarfs rail and air spending now. Not to mention massive indirect parking subsidies along with terrible zoning and built environments favoring auto use over any other option. I actually dont think national HSR makes sense in the US, but there are 6-8 regions were it does and once built operationally its typically more efficient than air travel on medium stage trips. But my point on costs goes back to originally building out the US airport and road infrastructure has mostly beem done by public general find revenue, the interstate system at one time was well covered for maintenance by gas tax, but thats no longer true. IMO all interstate or long distance in-state transpirtation should be required to at least cover 100% of ongoing maintenance from users. Thats inludes rail auto and air, none of which do so now.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 7:48 pm

9w748capt wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


It's so costly and inefficient because we've built our cities around the car and not the person. The horribly inefficient design of modern American cities (look at our beloved OKC) is to blame. No wonder we're so fat. I'll never understand at what point our planners decided it was illegal to actually walk somewhere.


Not really. Both in the US and elsewhere, it’s generally easier to reach the densest parts of cities by rail than by air, which requires large open spaces. That’s true in compact cities like Boston and sprawling cities like Kansas City alike.

It might be fair to distinguish some US cities on the basis that many jobs and residents are far from the CBD but even that isn’t true everywhere in the States and is true in cities in many other parts of the world.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 8:08 pm

Moderately high speed rail could be optimal for 150-300 mile trips. Vancouver BC to Eugene is about 435 miles, and while that really is flying distance the corridor covers much of the population of British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Averaging including stops over 65mph would be fairly compelling service.

A big problem with US RRs are the huge number of grade crossings even in populated areas. Humans don't do that much better with trains than deer with highways.
 
sagechan
Posts: 481
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 8:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:

[b]Besides the examples listed here, are there any other busy routes you think well worth having a high speed rail link as an alternative to air travel?


I'll let you - or the numb-nuts at Bloomberg - point to the high speed rail lines where ticket prices cover full cost of operation and capital costs, and then we can talk.

The quality of economic argument presented here is just shameful.

We do not have a single form of human transportation that meets that definition. Although i support ALL forms of long distance transportation having to do so. If they did rail and air would most likely be cheaper than auto.
 
DocLightning
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 8:38 pm

HSR in CA *could have been* a wonderful thing and it could almost be completed by now. But in typical US fashion, you can't build anything like that anymore. The politics, myopic "environmental concerns" (AGW is far more important than a salamander somewhere), and the political manipulations that made the alignment take a very inland, circuitous route have made the project pointless.

HSR works well when correctly applied. A lot of Americans love to crow about how it will never work, but it *does* work in almost every market in which it's been built. The absolute speed is slower than an airplane, but for trips like MAD-BCN or SFO-LAX, an airplane flight takes over an hour of travel to the airport, security, waiting, taxiing, waiting in line to take off, and then if there's a bit of rain... I've had a flight home from LAX to SFO wind up taking seven hours. Had I known at the outset that it was going to wind up that way, I would have just dead-headed a rental car and beat my plane home, so let's not be myopic about speed. Speed isn't everything. Nobody is proposing HSR as a feasible option for transcontinental travel.

Frankly, right now if we're going to spend billions, we need to fix the congestion in the Bay Area first. I went to SFO for my Global Entry interview at 9:45PM and had to sit in traffic to get onto the Bay Bridge for almost a half hour on my way home...at 10 PM on a weeknight. This is routine now.
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 8:46 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
It's a shame that there is high speed infrastructure in place to serve those areas, avoiding pollution and congestion to be spread around with the current "only car/only plane" mindset that is anchoring US infrastructure in general into the XIX-XX century.


As an American taxpayer, I am glad we have never sunk money into high-speed rail. Thrilled even. High-speed rail does not make sense outside of the Northeast U.S. and it would suck money from more valuable infrastructure projects.

Saying U.S. infrastructure is "anchored in the 19th and 20th century" is just pompous nonsense.


Its neither pompous nor nonsense.
What "more valuable infrastructure projects" have actually been undertaken in the US (particularly outside of the Northeast) with all that un-sucked money?
All I can identify are fairly local "pork barrel" projects carved out by legislators in return for political favor.


Yes, it is totally pompous and nonsensical. The United States has world-class infrastructure. Our nation's ability to quickly, reliably, safely, and economically transport people, goods, and services over vast distances is truly without rival. How we achieve that matters little. The notion that our infrastructure is "crumbling" is largely advanced by the American Society of Civil Engineers with their annual Infrastructure Report Card. It's no surprise that a trade group associated with the construction industry always says we need to spend more on construction. "Barbers say short hair is IN!"

What has been done because we didn't sink money in high-speed rail? Countless things. The U.S. invests 2.5% of GDP in infrastructure annually. Most infrastructure investments are not high-profile, high-visibility super projects. That's to be expected. Most people are oblivious to infrastructure investment because it's boring and mundane stuff.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 9:08 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:

As an American taxpayer, I am glad we have never sunk money into high-speed rail. Thrilled even. High-speed rail does not make sense outside of the Northeast U.S. and it would suck money from more valuable infrastructure projects.

Saying U.S. infrastructure is "anchored in the 19th and 20th century" is just pompous nonsense.


Its neither pompous nor nonsense.
What "more valuable infrastructure projects" have actually been undertaken in the US (particularly outside of the Northeast) with all that un-sucked money?
All I can identify are fairly local "pork barrel" projects carved out by legislators in return for political favor.


Yes, it is totally pompous and nonsensical. The United States has world-class infrastructure. Our nation's ability to quickly, reliably, safely, and economically transport people, goods, and services over vast distances is truly without rival. How we achieve that matters little. The notion that our infrastructure is "crumbling" is largely advanced by the American Society of Civil Engineers with their annual Infrastructure Report Card. It's no surprise that a trade group associated with the construction industry always says we need to spend more on construction. "Barbers say short hair is IN!"

What has been done because we didn't sink money in high-speed rail? Countless things. The U.S. invests 2.5% of GDP in infrastructure annually. Most infrastructure investments are not high-profile, high-visibility super projects. That's to be expected. Most people are oblivious to infrastructure investment because it's boring and mundane stuff.


You and I said "infrastructure", yet you respond only in the context of transport. You invoked "crumbling", and I did not.
2.5% GDP spend on infrastructure is nothing to be proud of . Military is 3.5% Healthcare is 15% . still, GDP isn't that great a metric to base this on.
Factually, the US is politically unable to move forward on many federal projects that have clear public benefits; that you don't believe rail is one of them is fine, but it is not pompous or nonsense to point it out.

Please don't insist the US infrastructure in power distribution, urban mass transit, freight rail and internet is "world class". It isn't.
 
planecane
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 9:10 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
planecane wrote:
khowaga wrote:

They’re including the time you have to arrive to the airport in advance, clear security, and hang around the airport before your flight actually leaves (“dwell time” they call it).


How long until terrorist fears or reality related to trains causes the need for the same "security" process?


Never.
Trains are not nearly as vulnerable to the same level of threat (both real and perceived) as air travel.


I don't know. Derailing a train creates a lot of casualties. A train can't really he hijacked and a bomb doesn't create 100% casualties but blowing up a train car would certainly not be a minor event.
 
csavel
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 9:30 pm

9w748capt wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
It’s a shame that none of those high speed rail markets are in the US.

WAS-NYC is still in the US last time I checked...

And no, it’s not a shame that we don’t have more high speed rail markets in the US. While the current US rail infrastructure was built to haul people and goods to open up the American west, there’s a reason today’s railroads and their predecessors got out of the passenger business, it’s extremely costly and unprofitable. A rail shipment in the US today averages $4,000 because that is what it takes per car to cover their infrastructure (which they wholly own and maintain), labor and other associated costs. High speed rail in the US would be extremely costly to build, just look at the California High Speed Rail project. It is BILLIONS of dollars over budget and at this rate will never be completed and even if it did the only way it could be maintained is through huge government subsidies. So stick with flying for the time being to get from A to B quickly in the US.


It's so costly and inefficient because we've built our cities around the car and not the person. The horribly inefficient design of modern American cities (look at our beloved OKC) is to blame. No wonder we're so fat. I'll never understand at what point our planners decided it was illegal to actually walk somewhere.


This in a nutshell. The only place where high-speed rail, or even intercity rail really exists in the US is the Northeast because it was populated before the car and more resembles Europe. I can take a subway to AMTRAK take an ACELA to DC and take a metro to my company;s office in DC.

*Even if * you have high-speed rail between, say Houston and Dallas, you will most likely drive to the station, take the HSR to Dallas and then what? probably rent a car! I do realise that both cities have light rail and revitalised downtowns but really that is drop in the bucket for how points really must be for HSR to be populated.

One proposal was HSR from Tampa to Orlando, what an insanely stupid idea unless you have infrastructure to manage those people sans cars once they are in those places.
 
Sancho99504
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Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 10:56 pm

sagechan wrote:
michman wrote:
sagechan wrote:

Kinda like the huge government subsidies that drivers get and that built the US aviation system? Regional HSR in the US makes a lot of sense, bloated construction costs need brought down though. HSR for 200-500mi large city to large city runs make a lot of sense.


Drivers pay for road construction through fuel taxes. Air passengers pay 7.5% excise tax, plus $4.20 segment tax, plus $4.50 PFC's. Show me the fees in Amtrak tickets that pay for the subsidies from the government? Oh that's right, there aren't any. As usual, the rail fans make unsubstantiated claims with no supporting facts or evidence.


https://taxfoundation.org/gasoline-taxe ... d-spending

Gas tax and tolls covers less than 40% of maintenance and construction costs and its dropping and total road spending dwarfs rail and air spending now. Not to mention massive indirect parking subsidies along with terrible zoning and built environments favoring auto use over any other option. I actually dont think national HSR makes sense in the US, but there are 6-8 regions were it does and once built operationally its typically more efficient than air travel on medium stage trips. But my point on costs goes back to originally building out the US airport and road infrastructure has mostly beem done by public general find revenue, the interstate system at one time was well covered for maintenance by gas tax, but thats no longer true. IMO all interstate or long distance in-state transpirtation should be required to at least cover 100% of ongoing maintenance from users. Thats inludes rail auto and air, none of which do so now.


My state continues to use money from the gas tax and vehicle licensing fees to pay for mass transit and bicycle paths while complaining that they don't get enough money to fix roads and bridges. California is even worse in that area.
 
FlyHappy
Posts: 1234
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 1:06 pm

Re: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 11:13 pm

planecane wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
planecane wrote:

How long until terrorist fears or reality related to trains causes the need for the same "security" process?


Never.
Trains are not nearly as vulnerable to the same level of threat (both real and perceived) as air travel.


I don't know. Derailing a train creates a lot of casualties. A train can't really he hijacked and a bomb doesn't create 100% casualties but blowing up a train car would certainly not be a minor event.


I didn't say a terrorist act to a train was a "minor event".
But there's sadly been decades of terror events in all venues, planes, trains, theaters, markets, hotels. Only one of those affects lasting damage to public confidence, and only one can be readily turned into its own weapon.
Aircraft security will always be unique, for good reason.
 
DFW17L
Posts: 460
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Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 11:17 pm

Dallas-Houston HSR. https://www.texascentral.com/.
 
DarthLobster
Posts: 392
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 3:40 am

Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

Sat May 05, 2018 11:33 pm

Given the clientele I’ve seen on Amtrak, I’ll gladly stick with air travel.

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