Hey everyone, sorry if this has already been discussed, there are so many topics that briefly touch on this. Mods delete if necessary.

The question is in the title: Is Airbus struggling without the famous John Leahy?

We haven't really seen any major orders on the A side compared to Boeing. Boeing seems to be on the ball with orders, deliveries and management compared to Airbus right now. A new thread that was opened is currently discussion the recent hint BA gave out stating that Boeing may have won an order for 787/777x aircraft. If this turns out to be true then were does Airbus sit on the table? Is John Leahy's replacement up to the job of competing with Boeing?

Link to BA thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1393323

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top.

Too much was made of John Leahy, yes he was a good salesman but to think he was responsible for Airbus success is a stretch. His style may have made good photo ops but there are many more people involved in making a company profitable. It seems Airbus has many issues to contend with and Mr Leahy would not be able to do any better than the current team is doing.

gatibosgru wrote:

mham001 wrote:

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top.

That's a stretch.

No it's not.

The withdrawal of export financing as a result of the investigations has unfortunately coincided with a huge build up of undelivered aircraft that has consumed some E3Bn - E4Bn of cash, making it significantly more difficult for Airbus to self-finance in any volume at the moment.

The good news is that they are forecasting that, provided the production engine-related bottlenecks are sorted, cashflow will go from -E3Bn for the year to date to +E3Bn - a turnaround of E6Bn that should help enormously.

It's not all about Leahy

Rgds

Airbus will do fine....they aren't going to win every sales campaign. A35J is poised to take advantage of the 77W replacement cycle when it starts in a few years... A359 is an extremely capable plane. A321NEO success speaks for itself.

Wait after the Farnborough Air Show. Airbus said they expected this year's book-to-bill ratio will exceed one, and they have a tendency to sandbag.

Shulz recently hinted in an article(i think on FG) that Airbus already has some widebody orders but cannot announce them as yet.

Airbus is not doomed but Airbus will be weaker without Leahy. Look at what happened to AA when Bob Crandall left. Companies go up and down according to their leadership. Airbus is on a down cycle now, but it doesn't mean they won't go on an up cycle again in the future. However, some companies like BN, PA, EA, and TW go down and never recover.

Swadian wrote:

Airbus is not doomed but Airbus will be weaker without Leahy. Look at what happened to AA when Bob Crandall left. Companies go up and down according to their leadership. Airbus is on a down cycle now, but it doesn't mean they won't go on an up cycle again in the future. However, some companies like BN, PA, EA, and TW go down and never recover.

First of all, I do not know of any thread here discussing a demise of AIrbus.

Second I have to ask how you can judge the actions of the new sales chief before giving him a chance. John Leahy was sales chief during a period when 1) Air travel grew exponentially 2) there were only two suppliers and 3) Airbus strategy was to sacrifice profits to gain market share. If you want a guy to sell lot's of planes cheap, Leahy was your the guy. He also had a big ego and a bigger mouth which he often put his foot in. He was a liar also.

IMHO the new management team at Airbus needs to raise profits or Boeing will continue to use it's mountain of cash on acquisitions that could radically shift any balance in this duopoly.

mham001 wrote:

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top.

Can't say I've really kept up - I thought the Munich Investigator had fined AB $100million.

And so all is finished.

No?

cheers

brindabella wrote:

mham001 wrote:

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top.

Can't say I've really kept up - I thought the Munich Investigator had fined AB $100million.

And so all is finished.

No?

cheers

There is (or was) multiple investigations going on. I don’t think they have all wrapped up.

Polot wrote:

brindabella wrote:

mham001 wrote:

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top.

Can't say I've really kept up - I thought the Munich Investigator had fined AB $100million.

And so all is finished.

No?

cheers

There is (or was) multiple investigations going on. I don’t think they have all wrapped up.

Hmmm. Don't like to think how that may have affected the recent (and obvious) massive France vs Germany struggle in "Mahogany Row"?

cheers

gatibosgru wrote:

mham001 wrote:

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top.

That's a stretch.

I recommend you read up on that before commenting. I don't have a link and will not be doing your research but that is the current state of affairs as reported by several major news organizations. It's really quite a mess in France with corruption investigations ranging far and wide.

brindabella wrote:

mham001 wrote:

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top.

Can't say I've really kept up - I thought the Munich Investigator had fined AB $100million.

And so all is finished.

No?

cheers

There is a thread on this website for many months on this subject.

Leahy was an exceptional salesman, using all the tools he had available. The ethics investigations and changes to rules and laws stemming from it has clipped the ability for any salesman to create a deal, middlemen outside of the company cannot be compensated like before, less greasing of the skids, etc. Coupled with more difficult financing it is harder to score a Kingfisher type deal these days, but that saves the problem of cancelling 82 orders when the shaky airline goes under. But Airbus will do just fine, the new sales team will keep getting around half the airline orders made worldwide.

One man in the scheme of things not important. Airbus have a superb product portfolio and achieved a great deal balancing the inevitable politics with particularly with Germany. The lubricating of deals extends across this sector as with many other industries ....sadly. Too many givers and too many very ready takers!

Swadian wrote:

Airbus is not doomed but Airbus will be weaker without Leahy. Look at what happened to AA when Bob Crandall left. Companies go up and down according to their leadership. Airbus is on a down cycle now, but it doesn't mean they won't go on an up cycle again in the future. However, some companies like BN, PA, EA, and TW go down and never recover.

John Laehy was a world renowned airline Exec. He spoke Airline and he knew the airlines (at least in the USA) route structure abd where they might operate the airplanes he was trying to sell. I remember one of his biggest hits. He sent the A320's and A319's to United on 5 year walkaway leases. If we didn't like them?
we could just park them and walk away. that took Guts and Panache to do that. I don't see anyone who'll have that "Gunslinger" attitude coming along..

Leahy was very good on what he did. A person with great value for Airbus, but his not the only one that he can make that job. More capable person are out there, possible some of them work with him and learn from him, and they will continue to do the job for Airbus.
A success or not of a company is a team work of a lot of persons.I can’t believe that the existence of Airbus depends on one person.

Leahy was a good exec, and has cemented his legacy in historical terms.
But one person does not an industry maketh.
Leahy benefitted from the times, and the current sales chief has very little room to improve upon the past record, and works in tighter constraints.

Airbus is fine, and will be fine.

What I find fascinating about Leahy is that he's the only non-CEO I can think of who is so deeply credited with the rise of a major industry.

For me Leahy is a great salesman, and has the Steve Jobs Syndrome, he enjoyed the good times and when things got steady he left, Apple did the same when SJ died, so after his death, apple has not created anything ground breaking...so everyobne pins the success of the company to his leadership. Airbus will come around nicely, they have great products and will keep having almost half the market...

TRB

Airbus has issue's. The 380 has, and will continue to be a dog, putting further strain on earnings. They also have a little thing called "bribery" that exec's are going to jail over. Leahy got out at the right time. Just before the fan and solid matter hit...

Does anyone understand Leahy’s role in product development?

Sales is ultimately about product, marketing and pricing. John Leahy had irreplaceable experience with Airbus but their core strengths will continue without John. They’ll continue to do well without him.

G'day

727200 wrote:

Airbus has issue's. They also have a little thing called "bribery" that exec's are going to jail over.

Believing that only Airbus used methods that "facilitated" sales is naive. In some countries you will simply not be able to sell a bolt without greasing, paying off, bribe, whatever - you select the term - the right people. From personal experience in capital equipment sales I know it is impossible to sell anything to anyone within the Russian Federation without such "assistance". Since Boeing also sold aircraft to Russian airlines you can safely assume they used the same "assistance" that Airbus used for their sales. This is Russia that I know about well, but surely there are other countries where the same rules apply. African, Arab and some Asian countries come to mind......

Few people end up in jail over bribery, else the US of A may end up without having Goofy err.... Donald as President one day

Cheers

Peter

Orders (as opposed to conditional orders, options & letters of intent) take 1-3 years to firm, so JL had a pretty good read of the market, when choosing the ideal time to depart.

JL's replacement is probably encountering anti-RR sentiment with the 787 engine issues.

Has he completely left? Still spending a couple of days each month in France and Washington?

adambrau wrote:

I have flown the A380 in F on TG and Lufthansa, and in J on several other airlines. Indeed it is a technological marvel and an amazingly quiet aircraft. Having said that I go out of my way to avoid them because I find the A380 to be amongst the ugliest commercial aircraft ever produced. Rational, no!

Just awsome ! Why, you flew on the wing ??
The magic is inside if you flew Y, compare that to the very NOISY & crammed 3-4-3 777s...
I just flew on JAL's 2-4-2 787s & 3-3-3 777s, seats were great but the noise... the NOISE !!!!

Planeflyer wrote:

Does anyone understand Leahy’s role in product development?

Ah ! That's the first insightful remark I read !
Truth is Airbus now have a full-fledged family of aircrafts & as discussed in the thread I dedicated to JL, he was instrumental in the A380 development - but not only, it was also Jean Pierson's pet project. Also in the interviews I listed, JL explains that the A330/A340 had been frozen months before he got to Toulouse. The A320 NEO & A330 NEO are clearly marked by his networking, but as others pointed out, he did not decide on it alone. I don't know what his involvement in the A350 is.

As to the OP question, other than the problems Airbus are or are not facing, mind that :
1. JL left in February only & surely materialized as many on-going campaigns as he could, he had $$$ interests in all of them, and with the virtual acquisition of the Cseries programme for 1 euro as a cherry on his departure cake.
2. Give the new team time to put their marks & resume personal and professional connections with everyone who matters in the airlines, that takes much time.
3. The Airline business is long-cycle : Boeing may be garnering more WB orders recently, but Airbus came from nowhere & if anything in the past 20 years Boeing have been unable to garner significantly more orders than Airbus to break the 50/50 market share. By that metric, Airbus is doing just fine & will do so for years ahead.
4. Their current-line up, more modern on average, will also help Airbus to do well against Boeing for years to come : other than the 787 which is doing remarkably well, the 77X success remains to bring in profits before a good decade if not two, the MoM is still a paper airplane no one really knows what Boeing will do about it yet, if they really launch it. If anything, I'd be more worried about a successor to the 737, still selling very well but their current 40% marketshare cannot but fall in the future...

DWC wrote:

adambrau wrote:

I have flown the A380 in F on TG and Lufthansa, and in J on several other airlines. Indeed it is a technological marvel and an amazingly quiet aircraft. Having said that I go out of my way to avoid them because I find the A380 to be amongst the ugliest commercial aircraft ever produced. Rational, no!

Just awsome ! Why, you flew on the wing ??
The magic is inside if you flew Y, compare that to the very NOISY & crammed 3-4-3 777s...
I just flew on JAL's 2-4-2 787s & 3-3-3 777s, seats were great but the noise... the NOISE !!!!

Planeflyer wrote:

Does anyone understand Leahy’s role in product development?

Ah ! That's the first insightful remark I read !
Truth is Airbus now have a full-fledged family of aircrafts & as discussed in the thread I dedicated to JL, he was instrumental in the A380 development - but not only, it was also Jean Pierson's pet project. Also in the interviews I listed, JL explains that the A330/A340 had been frozen months before he got to Toulouse. The A320 NEO & A330 NEO are clearly marked by his networking, but as others pointed out, he did not decide on it alone. I don't know what his involvement in the A350 is.

As to the OP question, other than the problems Airbus are or are not facing, mind that :
1. JL left in February only & surely materialized as many on-going campaigns as he could, he had $$$ interests in all of them, and with the virtual acquisition of the Cseries programme for 1 euro as a cherry on his departure cake.
2. Give the new team time to put their marks & resume personal and professional connections with everyone who matters in the airlines, that takes much time.
3. The Airline business is long-cycle : Boeing may be garnering more WB orders recently, but Airbus came from nowhere & if anything in the past 20 years Boeing have been unable to garner significantly more orders than Airbus to break the 50/50 market share. By that metric, Airbus is doing just fine & will do so for years ahead.
4. Their current-line up, more modern on average, will also help Airbus to do well against Boeing for years to come : other than the 787 which is doing remarkably well, the 77X success remains to bring in profits before a good decade if not two, the MoM is still a paper airplane no one really knows what Boeing will do about it yet, if they really launch it. If anything, I'd be more worried about a successor to the 737, still selling very well but their current 40% marketshare cannot but fall in the future...

Is JL had as much influence as you seem to indicate in the 380 that is not a positive for him.

If he also was responsible for 340-500 and 600 his track record is further tarnished.

Not to say he couldn’t sell which is super important but letting sales people make product development decisions almost never works.

Assuming all this is accurate AB is probably better off wo him although they might have a few slow sales years.

Won't matter much once the FBI raids Boeing's HQ/plants and seizes all of their money/assets. One can hope.

The Interesting thing now at Airbus is the Rolls Royce Engine reliance which is hurting the A330-900 and they better hope not create problems with the A350. When Airbus started the A300 and A310 never had Rollers they had GE & Pratt engines. The A330-200/300 has all three engine available. Rolls is now the exclusive engine on all Airbus long haul planes except for the Alliance engine on the A380. How hings have turned ? Airbus better hope the Rolls 787 problems don't become the Rolls A350 problems.

DWC wrote:

adambrau wrote:

I have flown the A380 in F on TG and Lufthansa, and in J on several other airlines. Indeed it is a technological marvel and an amazingly quiet aircraft. Having said that I go out of my way to avoid them because I find the A380 to be amongst the ugliest commercial aircraft ever produced. Rational, no!

Just awsome ! Why, you flew on the wing ??
The magic is inside if you flew Y, compare that to the very NOISY & crammed 3-4-3 777s...
I just flew on JAL's 2-4-2 787s & 3-3-3 777s, seats were great but the noise... the NOISE !!!!

Thanks for your comment. Sums up why I prefer to lurk than post.