Thanks to B6 reallocation of its West Coast operations it has advised LGB it's permanently returning 12 slots affect September 5th 2018.

Question now besides WN who's already stated in the past it will take any available slots at LGB.
Who else will request slots?
I can see Hawaiian wanting 2 additional.
AA already just returned 3 slots less than a year ago.
DL I can see wanting to swap there remaining 2 commuter slots for 2 more main line slots.

Will AS with it's soon to be available aircraft from the DCA & LGA reduction will it make another return to LGB for it's battle for California.


United could return again to LGB.
Adding to it's DEN growth.

Spirit ,Frontier or Allegiant bring it's ULCC to LGB.

So many possibilities.

Let the guessing begin!

Flyguy

Perhaps the following:
UA DEN-LGB 2x E175
UA SFO-LGB 2x E175
WN DEN-LGB (move to daily) 737 (what else)
WN PHX-LGB 2x 737
WN OAK-LGB 1x 737 (additional flight)
HA OGG-LGB 1x 321
AS SEA-LGB 2x E175
DL ATL-LGB 1x A319

Love your analysis WNFLYGUY.

My guess...

DL
MSP-LGB
DTW-LGB

WN
STL-LGB
MCO-LGB

UA
IAH-LGB
EWR-LGB

AS
SFO-LGB

NK
FLL-LGB

F9
CVG-LGB

G4
LAS-LGB

AA
ORD-LGB
DFW-LGB

Wouldn't it be funny if AS added JFK and/or BOS

wnflyguy wrote:

Thanks to B6 reallocation of its West Coast operations it has advised LGB it's permanently returning 12 slots affect September 5th 2018.

Question now besides WN who's already stated in the past it will take any available slots at LGB.
Who else will request slots?
I can see Hawaiian wanting 2 additional.
AA already just returned 3 slots less than a year ago.
DL I can see wanting to swap there remaining 2 commuter slots for 2 more main line slots.

Will AS with it's soon to be available aircraft from the DCA & LGA reduction will it make another return to LGB for it's battle for California.


United could return again to LGB.
Adding to it's DEN growth.

Spirit ,Frontier or Allegiant bring it's ULCC to LGB.

So many possibilities.

Let the guessing begin!

Flyguy

Keep in mind the PT article linked explains, "JetBlue’s previously-confirmed plans to give up one of its 35 slots made it possible for Hawaiian Airlines to announce its plans to begin Long Beach-to-Honolulu flights as of June 1." So one of those is already going to HA. There are 11 additional slots to be reallocated evidently.

https://www.presstelegram.com/2018/04/2 ... onal-plan/

If United is interested, I can see them coming in with 4 flights to SFO, maybe 2 to DEN. DL potentially with 2 SEA. AS has tried LGB so many times, we will see.

My current guess is 4x UA, 2x DL, 5x WN.

That would be:
B6 23
WN 11 (just under the 12 to require WN ground ops)
DL 6
AA 4
UA 4

Now I know commuter slots are a thing. These are not commuter slots. Are there any available commuter slots? What is the largest aircraft allowed to be operated with an LGB commuter slot? That could change how slots are distributed, I could see WN arguing if they don't get enough slots, that smaller aircraft should be using any available commuter slots, that's why I ask.

Allegiant has done LGB in the past and it didn't pan out.

I don't see UA going into LGB, but if they do, I would expect DEN since the intra-CA routes have proven to be a bloodbath.

No sense delaying the inevitable...give 'em all to WN.

WN could add daily nonstop service to SJC, LAS, and PHX from LGB if it can get extra slots at LGB.

I'm sad B6 cannot find a use for those slots. That said, if WN will take me, my kids, and my dog to Florida, I don't care. If they won't take the dog, I have a problem...
Late edit, my dog qualifies. I do not mind an airline making a profit off my pug.

Sean-SAN- wrote:

Allegiant has done LGB in the past and it didn't pan out.

I wouldn't rule them out. Southwest entering LGB has increased attention.

Lightsaber

OzarkD9S wrote:

No sense delaying the inevitable...give 'em all to WN.

I don't think inevitability plays a part here; I just don't think there will be much demand for the slots from parties other than WN. I'm not even sure WN will want all the ones which become available.

My guesses would look something like this:

American:
DFW-LGB | A319 | 1x daily

Alaska/Horizon:
SEA-LGB | B738 | 1x daily
PDX-LGB | E175 | 1x daily

Delta:
No changes. (SLC-LGB is the only route that I see Delta operating out of LGB).

Frontier:
DEN-LGB | A319 | 4x weekly
AUS-LGB | A319 | 3x weekly

Hawaiian:
OGG-HNL | A321 | 1x daily

United:
SFO-LGB | CRJ2 | 4x daily
DEN-LGB | A319 | 2x daily
IAH-LGB | A319 | 1x daily

NOTE: I'm not really familiar with Southwest's LGB schedule; I don't really have any comment on that as of now...

Great Topic! I would concur with others that intrastate flying is probably not worth it for any airline except WN. UA would seem to be the logical choice to add since they have no service at LGB unlike AA and DL. It also seems that WN is the most likely to take advantage as they have more options on connection "Hubs".

My mainline slot predictions (wishes)
AA - DFW x1 or ORDx1 (PHL may even work better than those)
UA - IAHx1 DENx1 (IAD and EWR may even work better)
DL - MSPx1 (Maybe DTW would work better)
WN - MCIx2, STL x2, HOUx2

Justification:
In the case of AA and DL they can operate to their other hubs but its hard to justify more service given that they already have service in place and don't use larger aircraft or fly to the other hubs. For UA, LGB could relieve some gate pressure at LAX by having flights to the other UA hubs. This would offer the same single connect options that would exist today from LAX/SNA. Hard to know which hub would be the most advantageous in this scenario. In WN's case operating to Mid-continent airports provides massive connection options while avoiding most competitor hubs and B6. WN could also benefit from relieving gate pressure at LAX.

Wait a minute, yes I am missing something here but how is B6 giving up all those slots but still gaining flights, are the cutting other routes/frequencies out of LGB?

Super80Fan wrote:

Wait a minute, yes I am missing something here but how is B6 giving up all those slots but still gaining flights, are the cutting other routes/frequencies out of LGB?

Yes, see post #5 above for link to the Long Beach Press Telegram article. Personally I would like for Delta to have all remaining slots and start all B717 service to the top 10 markets.

JB is cutting 12 flights. 1/3 of its LGB operation.

I think you guys are overestimating demand.

This is a sad day for Long Beach and for the JB hub.

The final result (a few years out) will be the end of point to point flying for JetBlue on the West Coast and a huge drop in the amount of passengers using this brand new terminal in LGB.

JB overplayed their hand with the FIS proceeding, and the LGB City Council made a grave mistake.

No one else is coming in to replicate the JB hub. Not WN, not a legacy...no one.

AA to DFW makes sense. Don’t see anyone doing East of the Mississippi unless UA adds ORD.

LGB has gotten interest from DL, WN, Hawaiian so far

https://twitter.com/justinbachman/statu ... 55458?s=21

Jshank83 wrote:

LGB has gotten interest from DL, WN, Hawaiian so far

https://twitter.com/justinbachman/statu ... 55458?s=21

HA is interesting... its a B6 partner and with the A321N, why not try. I would guess DL to SEA, and WN to any of LAS, DEN, PHX and/or SJC.

These LGB slots offer an increasingly rare opportunity to grow in the booming Greater Los Angeles market - and let's face it, every single major U.S. carrier has shown considerable interest in LA lately. A few years ago, LGB was an awful trailer park while nearby LAX had plenty of room to spare for new entrants and expanding incumbents. Today, LGB is a world class facility while gate space at LAX is very hard to come by. LGB may not offer the best yields, but it does offer low costs to its operators. While BUR and SNA are much closer to major business centers and popular tourist attractions than LGB, those airports' short runways preclude many aircraft types and routes. ONT has great people in charge of it these days, but it is hardly a practical options for businesses, residents and visitors in coastal areas that would be inclined to use LGB.

I would not underestimate the interest in these slots. WN has had to significantly reduce operations at nearby SNA in recent years. They could easily beef up existing services to LAS and DEN, or add additional routes like DAL, MDW, etc. AS has come and gone several times, but today they have tools like a SFO hub and E-175s at their disposal. E-175s to SFO sure sound a lot better than mainline or CR7s to the Pacific Northwest, especially with B6 drastically reducing service to the Bay Area from LGB.

Even the ill-fated forays of F9 and G4 into LGB may have little bearing on future opportunities from this airport. After all, F9 was going through an identity and liquidity crisis when it served LGB. One day you'd see an Airbus decked out in animals, the next you'd see a "Midwest Connect" E-190. G4 seemed to grab LGB slots with the intention of serving Hawaii, but delays with the 757s and/or ETOPS process (can't quite remember what the deal was) forced them to send in noisy MD-80s and serve very unattractive places like Stockton. Today, they could send quiet Airbus planes to popular destinations like AUS.

Anyone know how HA's HNL-LGB service is looking? Any chance HA could be interested in OGG/KOA/LIH-LGB?

airliner371 wrote:

AS has tried LGB so many times, we will see

AS currently serves more cities in California than any carrier, adding LGB could help reiterate that talking point as they fight for the attention of Californians. Wouldn’t do much other than that though.

I'm not sure why people think AS is interested in returning to LGB when they left voluntarily and have shown no interest in returning when the opportunity has presented itself.

hiflyeras wrote:

I'm not sure why people think AS is interested in returning to LGB when they left voluntarily and have shown no interest in returning when the opportunity has presented itself.

I think its largely because there marketing scheme has changed since January of 2015(when they last pulled out) when AS announced in 2014 that they would end LGB, even top management had no Idea they would be acquiring VX a couple years later.

now their marketing schtick is "airline of the west coast" and LGB could (if they have renewed interest) compliment that. Their new large scale SFO operation would help.

I guess we will see in the coming months. Does anyone know when bids will be placed?

Keep in mind, Alaska, United, or anyone else could have entered LGB at any time with the two dozen free commuter slots available.

These air carrier slots come with bigger risk and also have usage requirements (which the airport is seeking to tighten even more) so someone like Allegiant with very variable and seasonal flying model is unlikely to find much utility in them.

Ultimately. I see Southwest as the right long term model for LGB, Existing commuter slot users like AA may request the air carrier slot as well to give themselves increased flexibility in aircraft gauge. This is something DL has done over the years by converting commuter slots into air carrier slots allowing better schedule flexibility.

hiflyeras wrote:

I'm not sure why people think AS is interested in returning to LGB when they left voluntarily and have shown no interest in returning when the opportunity has presented itself.

Because previously, AS didn't have critical mass within CA to really do much, and the last runs at LGB were Q400s. I'd expect to see 3X daily LGBSFO, 2X daily LGBSJC, and perhaps even another shot at LGBSEA 2X daily. E175s and mainline.

Over the next few years B6 will shrink/close LGB and WN will grow. Then WN will get the city council to pass the FIS vote after they have control of the majority of slots

Would love to see the new AS give LGB a run again! Maybe some 175’s to SJC/SFO/PDX and maybe a 319/73G to SEA? I wonder if they would try something a little more off the wall like LGB-GEG or BOI?

IMHO, I think that LGB will diversify the 12 slots as best as possible to as many as possible. HA, for example, could go with 3 more. Running side-by-side IAH-LGB-HNL and DEN-LGB-OGG and back. This allows pax from IAH and DEN to LGB and then transfer pax going from IAH to get on OGG flight and vice versa with DEN. Personally I can so no airline getting more than 3/4 slots. With DL, HA, and WN already showing interest, I think AS and UA will throw their hats in the ring as well. I believe that AA will steer clear though. We shall find out soon I would think as September 5th is just 132 days out.

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:

IMHO, I think that LGB will diversify the 12 slots as best as possible to as many as possible. HA, for example, could go with 3 more. Running side-by-side IAH-LGB-HNL and DEN-LGB-OGG and back. This allows pax from IAH and DEN to LGB and then transfer pax going from IAH to get on OGG flight and vice versa with DEN. Personally I can so no airline getting more than 3/4 slots. With DL, HA, and WN already showing interest, I think AS and UA will throw their hats in the ring as well. I believe that AA will steer clear though. We shall find out soon I would think as September 5th is just 132 days out.

LGB has a well established lottery system to allocate vacated slots for incumbent air carriers. A new entrant would get priority on 2 slots, but would take part in the lottery for any additional allocation along with pending incumbent request.

Based on this process there is no guarantee slot awards will be diversified or allocated very widely. Receiving merely 2 slots might not be sufficient for new entrant particularly without guarantee of further award within the lottery process.

And regarding HA - lets nor forget only this week they delayed their fleet and network plans by upwards of 1-year due A321NEO engine issues. Instead of having 7 frames in the fleet by end of June, they will only have 2, so I am not sure they are in a place to do too much with additional slots at LGB.

1 for Norwegian from Dublin. Pre-clearance makes that possible.

FrmrKSEngr wrote:

1 for Norwegian from Dublin. Pre-clearance makes that possible.

LGB is Long Beach Airport. Does that need to be renamed Long Beach International Airport first?

It's pretty amusing reading all these predictions. People really have no concept here of how bad WN, AA and DL have also been doing at LGB.

As for the short runway at SNA/BUR, why is that a problem when the only carrier doing transcon flight out of secondary LA area airport is B6? As long as SNA is around, LGB yields will be bad.

tphuang wrote:

It's pretty amusing reading all these predictions. People really have no concept here of how bad WN, AA and DL have also been doing at LGB.

As for the short runway at SNA/BUR, why is that a problem when the only carrier doing transcon flight out of secondary LA area airport is B6? As long as SNA is around, LGB yields will be bad.

Dont throw reality on a.net wet dreams.

B6 is walking away from slots as valuable as LGA, DCA, or LHR without a penny. They, after years of trying, dont know how to make money in LGB...but everyone else clamoring to come in does and will. (Note the sarcasm please)

jfklganyc wrote:

tphuang wrote:

It's pretty amusing reading all these predictions. People really have no concept here of how bad WN, AA and DL have also been doing at LGB.

As for the short runway at SNA/BUR, why is that a problem when the only carrier doing transcon flight out of secondary LA area airport is B6? As long as SNA is around, LGB yields will be bad.

Dont throw reality on a.net wet dreams.

B6 is walking away from slots as valuable as LGA, DCA, or LHR without a penny. They, after years of trying, dont know how to make money in LGB...but everyone else clamoring to come in does and will. (Note the sarcasm please)

So given the above, maybe my tongue in cheek Norwegian comment may not be too far off. Could LGB become like Sanford is to Orlando?

I'd love to see DL pick up 3 or so slots and do either MSP or ATL so I can potentially avoid LAX during the construction of both the Delta Skyway and the people mover.

One cannot operate international flights, pre-cleared or not without CBP staffing and ability to rescreen passengers upon arrival.

AS found this out the hard way after marketing YVR-SNA, without SNA having such capability. Their inaugural flight had to be diverted enroute once authorities noticed!

SurfandSnow wrote:

LGB may not offer the best yields

Kind of an understatement. Granted, it could be largely attributable to the service profile.

SurfandSnow wrote:

but it does offer low costs to its operators.

Not really. Cost levels are essentially the same as SNA and ONT.

SurfandSnow wrote:

I would not underestimate the interest in these slots. WN has had to significantly reduce operations at nearby SNA in recent years. They could easily beef up existing services to LAS and DEN, or add additional routes like DAL, MDW, etc.

They don't serve DEN (when served in the past, I don't believe it was even daily. More frequent service to OAK, LAS, and new service to PHX is probably the best way to get yields up to acceptable levels and build sustainable service. DEN maybe. DAL and MDW, I don't see at all in a constrained slot environment.

tphuang wrote:

As for the short runway at SNA/BUR, why is that a problem when the only carrier doing transcon flight out of secondary LA area airport is B6? As long as SNA is around, LGB yields will be bad.

It's not a problem, CO/UA have been flying EWR-SNA nonstop for almost 25 years. AA also flew JFK-SNA nonstop before for several years. AQ and UA have both flown HNL-SNA which is even longer and IIRC one of them even flew OGG-SNA.

Bring back SI.

I would be shocked if AS did not try to enter the market with at least a couple of E75s to SJC/PDX/SEA. It would help them add to that monstrosity of a plane with the Most West Coast titles.

I have a love/hate relationship with LGB. I worked at B6 when the station opened, and as the years passed it seemed like the City and LBHUSH2 squashed every opportunity of making LGB the most convenient relief airport in the basin. All the NIMBYs are finally getting their way; no other airline will come in and replace B6's focus city status. Sorry Long Beach, you can only shoot yourself in the foot so many times before all the blood is gone..

Since they last pulled out, AS now has a large Cali FF base, a fleet of 175s (albeit with pilot shortages), and a better product altogether. Wouldn't suprise me to see them want a dip in (maybe 2 each to SEA and SFO/SJC?).

American also has added a few flights to Cali from DFW. (See Oakland, Santa Barbara) A daily A319 or even a 175 would be a good add and considerably expand American's 1-stop network from LGB.

DEN on Southwest needs to be daily. It seems to me that the schedule could use a prop-up in general, and perhaps a flight to SFO and/or Phoenix would help.

Delta might like a Seattle flight or two, especially if Alaska doesn't want to return. Although perhaps on such an inevitably connection-heavy route, Salt Lake City would be better suited for most traffic flows.

United is interesting. 2x 175 to both DEN and SFO would be a heck of a way to introduce service, and would connect to almost everywhere important across the network. Perhaps they are eyeing some of the slots, and IIRC, they are entitled to at least 2 as a new entrant to the market.

The last one I can potentially see is Frontier. Asking for two slots, split between DEN, LAS, and maybe AUS (if Reno can get Austin, Long Beach can too) could be a good add for the carrier. If they just split 1 slot between DEN and LAS, or just DEN, they could probably survive off of connecting pax as well.

AS: 2x SEA- 737
AS: 2x SFO- E175
AS: 1x PDX- E175
WN: 2x PHX- 737
WN: Make DEN daily
DL: 1x JFK- premium 757 (which forces B6 to add MINT to LGB transcons)
DL: 2x ATL- A321
HA: 1x OGG- A321

jfklganyc wrote:

JB is cutting 12 flights. 1/3 of its LGB operation.

I think you guys are overestimating demand.

This is a sad day for Long Beach and for the JB hub.

The final result (a few years out) will be the end of point to point flying for JetBlue on the West Coast and a huge drop in the amount of passengers using this brand new terminal in LGB.

JB overplayed their hand with the FIS proceeding, and the LGB City Council made a grave mistake.

No one else is coming in to replicate the JB hub. Not WN, not a legacy...no one.

I think the FIS could have been feasible years ago however it may have been difficult to foresee the overall shift in California's thinking. Namely that all things non electric-vehicle, non train, and louder than 10db should be restricted to as great a degree possible. Had the Virgin deal gone down, or the FIS been approved we'd be talking...But lacking Virgin, lacking customs, increasing fines for noise....the writing was on the wall.

IMO they won't add anything east of the Rockies. Maybe DFW

lavalampluva wrote:

IMO they won't add anything east of the Rockies.

Yep, offering one flight a day to NYC, CHI, DFW, HOU, or ATL is not useful at all and a recipe for basement-level yields. WN’s business model should do much better there than B6’s.

AlaskaAir and Spirit both interested in LGB available slots.

Losing some JetBlue may be a better gain for the LGB traveling public.

Flyguy

I think Delta & Southwest will fill the slots. I may be wrong, but I don't think Alaska will be in Long Beach.