Airliners.net

jfklganyc wrote:

JFK PDX has never been seasonal.

Right now it’s 4x weekly Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday
I happen to know this as I am currently on B6 1205 over MT as I type this comment.
Because BOS-PDX is seasonal I had to take a routing of BOS-JFK-PDX-LGB-BOS for my trip, I’m not sure of the price point as the ticket was a mileage reward, but seem to remember it being around $400 as an equivalent payment. I was only able to do that routing because I left today. Not sure what I would have done if it had been yesterday

zackary747 wrote:

I thought I would share this link since JetBlue is mentioned. Take it as you will (with a grain of salt if you wish) but I thought this needed to be posted here. Plus, who doesn't love a good little conversation.

https://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/in ... -expansion

"Executive director Mario Rodriguez says the airport will announce its ninth major airline by year's end. He won't say which one, but says it's probably the most obvious domestic airline missing from Indy. The largest such airline is JetBlue, America's seventh-largest carrier."

Again, take it as you will but if this mystery airline is indeed JetBlue that would be great. If not then it is what it is.

Could be a possibility but I highly doubt it. If
I could guess it would by SY. B6 has had pretty stagnant growth for quite awhile. SY has been pretty aggressive as of late and has quite a few new aircraft adds coming online. But who knows, I’m curious to see.

nine4nine wrote:

zackary747 wrote:

I thought I would share this link since JetBlue is mentioned. Take it as you will (with a grain of salt if you wish) but I thought this needed to be posted here. Plus, who doesn't love a good little conversation.

https://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/in ... -expansion

"Executive director Mario Rodriguez says the airport will announce its ninth major airline by year's end. He won't say which one, but says it's probably the most obvious domestic airline missing from Indy. The largest such airline is JetBlue, America's seventh-largest carrier."

Again, take it as you will but if this mystery airline is indeed JetBlue that would be great. If not then it is what it is.

Could be a possibility but I highly doubt it. If
I could guess it would by SY. B6 has had pretty stagnant growth for quite awhile. SY has been pretty aggressive as of late and has quite a few new aircraft adds coming online. But who knows, I’m curious to see.

I would hardly call SY the most obvious domestic airline missing from IND. That would lead me to B6 or NK.

I think ind is their next big new city out of bos and it will probably happen in the next few weeks for a launch somewhere in April or May. I don’t think it will take much to push wn out on that route.

After that, who knows? Maybe mem if they want to open up a market with no competition. They could also try Cmh or cvg if they want to make delta life harder. But that won’t happen for a while.

ucdtim17 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

So is PDX-BOS a no-go for 2019 then? Their only other summer seasonal transcon out of BOS was SMF, and that one is loaded into the 2019 schedule.

Also, SEA-ANC was loaded into the schedule, while PDX-ANC was not. Is that one gone too?

They also do BOS-OAK; not currently loaded as of schedule end June 12.

Update with the jetblue vacations schedule release - BOS-PDX/OAK do both return in June for the summer.

tphuang wrote:

I think ind is their next big new city out of bos and it will probably happen in the next few weeks for a launch somewhere in April or May. I don’t think it will take much to push wn out on that route.

After that, who knows? Maybe mem if they want to open up a market with no competition. They could also try Cmh or cvg if they want to make delta life harder. But that won’t happen for a while.

I think B6 to CMH could work WN off the route in the same way as starting IND would.

tphuang wrote:

They could also try Cmh or cvg if they want to make delta life harder. But that won’t happen for a while.

One could only hope. CVG-BOS seems ripe for the picking.

ucdtim17 wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

So is PDX-BOS a no-go for 2019 then? Their only other summer seasonal transcon out of BOS was SMF, and that one is loaded into the 2019 schedule.

Also, SEA-ANC was loaded into the schedule, while PDX-ANC was not. Is that one gone too?

They also do BOS-OAK; not currently loaded as of schedule end June 12.

Update with the jetblue vacations schedule release - BOS-PDX/OAK do both return in June for the summer.

I'm still not seeing it. What date does it start on?

FA9295 wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

They also do BOS-OAK; not currently loaded as of schedule end June 12.

Update with the jetblue vacations schedule release - BOS-PDX/OAK do both return in June for the summer.

I'm still not seeing it. What date does it start on?

i think jetblue vacation schedule normally comes out before the rest of the schedule. You'd have to go to jetblue vacation website.

tphuang wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

Update with the jetblue vacations schedule release - BOS-PDX/OAK do both return in June for the summer.

I'm still not seeing it. What date does it start on?

i think jetblue vacation schedule normally comes out before the rest of the schedule. You'd have to go to jetblue vacation website.

Ah, thanks. It looks like PDX-ANC is on there as well... It's kinda weird that they don't have the two websites aligned with each other...

I have been thinking for almost a year that the next major domestic city they will open up is ind. after that, the obvious cities are cvg, Cmh, stl and mem.

If they want the least competition, they should go for mem. I think bos jfk fll can all theoretically work.

If they want to hurt dl profitability out of bos, cvg and Cmh are the obvious answers. Out of those two, Cmh is the easier one to enter since they can push out wn. And they can possibly add Cmh to fll and mco also. Dl operates 4 daily flight to cvg. It’s hard to break into that.

Stl makes sense since they would face no competition on jfk and wn is very weak in bos. But that would be all they can do. They would get crushed on stl fll or stl mco.

What route(s) would JetBlue even run out of IND?

Indy wrote:

What route(s) would JetBlue even run out of IND?

Probably only IND-BOS to start, and potentially only IND-FLL as well

Midwestindy wrote:

Indy wrote:

What route(s) would JetBlue even run out of IND?

Probably only IND-BOS to start, and potentially only IND-FLL as well

Any chance they could pick up SAN and PDX?

Indy wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Indy wrote:

What route(s) would JetBlue even run out of IND?

Probably only IND-BOS to start, and potentially only IND-FLL as well

Any chance they could pick up SAN and PDX?

B6 is unlikely to add IND-SAN or IND-PDX nonstop service, and AS is also more likely to add IND-PDX than B6, WN, or any US3 carriers are. In addition, WN also already has seasonal nonstop service to SAN from IND.

jplatts wrote:

B6 is unlikely to add IND-SAN or IND-PDX nonstop service, and AS is also more likely to add IND-PDX than B6, WN, or any US3 carriers are. In addition, WN also already has seasonal nonstop service to SAN from IND.

SAN is under served out of IND. It could easily support daily service and not just seasonal service. It really isn't a seasonal route. And lets not forget that the existence of a permanent nonstop flight would stimulate demand.

Indy wrote:

jplatts wrote:

B6 is unlikely to add IND-SAN or IND-PDX nonstop service, and AS is also more likely to add IND-PDX than B6, WN, or any US3 carriers are. In addition, WN also already has seasonal nonstop service to SAN from IND.

SAN is under served out of IND. It could easily support daily service and not just seasonal service. It really isn't a seasonal route. And lets not forget that the existence of a permanent nonstop flight would stimulate demand.

There is no way B6 would add a non-hub or non-focus city station out of IND. I can bet money on that. Yes SAN is underserved and PDX needs at least needs nonstop summer seasonal bare minimum, but you're talking WN (for SAN only) and AS territory here. Those open holes belong to the airlines that actually hub or focus city out of SAN and PDX,(or dart board ULCCs) not B6.

Here's what B6 could add from IND.

Most Likely
IND-BOS (Southwest will leave this route with their tail between their legs if this were to happen)
IND-FLL

Extremely Less Likely Wildcards
IND-JFK
IND-LGB (This is their only hub out west, and therefore the only option)

No Way in Crapola
IND-MCO (To low yielding to be possible)
IND-SJU (They'll connect people through the hubs in the intercontinental US, This route is an option for G4.)

I really dont get the obsession with JetBlue coming in and doing Boston-Indianapolis.

I mean, if they want to, that's fine, just not sure why. Delta and Southwest aren't exactly setting new records on the route, so, sure, let's have an airline that's struggling to really get its costs under control to come onto the route, and then cheer they run off one of the two bigger airlines that offers decent service out of Indianapolis to a number of cities that aren't hubs.

If you want new service on United - congratulations, you can expect another CRJ to OHare or Houston. How thrilling.

If you want new service on American - congratulations, you *may* get another CRJ to Charlotte. How thrilling.

If want some variety, you have to look for Southwest or Delta for anything decent, unless you're happy with 2 weekly sometimes throughout the year service on Allegiant or Frontier.

If they come in JetBlue would/should absolutely run into JFK and take advantage of Southwest leaving the NYC market and pick up the money on the table running down to a Florida city or two. Look at their performance for the past 5 years, their bread and butter is shuttling people in and out of Florida, trying to deviate from this has gotten some base hits, but it's not the home runs needed to win the pennant, let alone the division.

But by all means, let's care about the IND airport but then cheer for another airline to come in to knock off service on another carrier that seems to show some care for the service they provide here.

That's a winning mentality.

stlgph wrote:

I really dont get the obsession with JetBlue coming in and doing Boston-Indianapolis.

I mean, if they want to, that's fine, just not sure why. Delta and Southwest aren't exactly setting new records on the route

BOS-IND is one of DL's best performing eastern US routes out of BOS

Average fares for Q2
DL BOS-MSY $128 (DL) *limited time service
DL BOS-PIT $133 (DL)
DL BOS-BUF $133 (DL)
DL BOS-CHS $157 (DL)
DL BOS-RIC $165 (DL)
DL BOS-JAX $186 (DL)
DL BOS-FLL $189 (DL)
DL BOS-MCI $195 (DL)
DL BOS-BNA $197 (DL)
DL BOS-RDU $203 (DL)
DL BOS-MIA $205 (DL)
DL BOS-ATL $209 (DL)
DL BOS-TPA $220 (DL)
DL BOS-DTW $226 (DL)
DL BOS-MCO $232 (DL)
DL BOS-MKE $239 (DL)
DL BOS-CMH $246 (DL)
DL BOS-AUS $250 (DL)
DL BOS-IND $253 (DL)
DL BOS-MSP $259 (DL)
DL BOS-CVG $282 (DL)
The flights do well LF wise as well, with LFs between 80-90%

It only makes sense for B6 to come in and try to weaken DL's position on the route. I am sure there are also some corporate entities on the BOS side pushing B6 to add this as well.

BOS is almost always the first market B6 looks to add when opening up new cities especially east of the mississippi, and BOS is the market they are most focussed on growing. With JFK limited slot wise, and the recent cutbacks on midwest/mid east flying from FLL, I would expect B6 to add BOS before anything else.

stlgph wrote:

If want some variety, you have to look for Southwest or Delta for anything decent, unless you're happy with 2 weekly sometimes throughout the year service on Allegiant or Frontier.

But by all means, let's care about the IND airport but then cheer for another airline to come in to knock off service on another carrier that seems to show some care for the service they provide here.

Not really pertinent to the Jetblue thread, but I'll take a stab at this one.

What has WN done for IND? In the past year they added 1xweekly service to AUS and CUN (routes that IND already has 2 carriers on), but at the same time cut LGA/EWR, DCA, and cut back BOS and LAX. They don't even run IND-SAN for more than 2 months a year, a market with close to 200 PDEW. You can even argue that the main reason they are still on IND-BOS is to throw a block on B6, and hurt DL.

If WN is as caring to the IND market as you alude to, then they will stick by the IND-BOS service if B6 adds it.

stlgph wrote:

Calling IND/BOS one of DL's best route is far fetched 70 seat RJs at $180 roundtrip? Get real.

I provided data to show that it is in fact a route that performs well for DL, do you have any data to show that it doesn't perform well? I am happy to be proven wrong

stlgph wrote:

Southwest is doing a hell of a lot more than many other carriers, even offering a better variety of nonstops than Delta.

Yeah, because that is WN's network strategy, IND is a mid-sized station for WN with little growth to no growth

stlgph wrote:

You're obsessed with San Diego. Show me where Delta has been flying to San Diego.

I am not obsessed with SAN, I was merely saying WN offers the service for only two months a year when the market would likely be succesful year-round

stlgph wrote:

Show me where Delta is flying to Cancun

DL flies IND-CUN, they run it on the A320 from DEC-AUG

stlgph wrote:

Boston still remains. Los Angeles still remains. Did they drop them entirely? Nope. They're still there.

That doesn't negate the fact that they have cut service back on both routes

Actually midwestindy, I think your figures may even under estimate DL's performance on BOS-IND. When I factor in just the LF and fare of direct itineraries, IND is the third highest yielding non-transcon route for DL out of BOS after SLC and CVG. They get lower yield on ATL, DTW, MSP (after b6 entrance), RDU. CMH is about the same as IND. Some of that has to do with DL operating RJ on that route, but DL operates RJ to most non-hub/non-transcon routes out of BOS.

btw, where do you get your fare numbers? I use a script that parses BTS raw data and the average I get is just lower than your figures in general.

You just have to look at LGA, ATL and MSP to see how much DL fares drop when B6 enters. In each case, they went down 25 to 50%.

I could see them adding JFK-IND if they somehow get more slots. But outside of that, any freed up JFK slots are likely to go to leisure and VFR routes.

How about BOS-SDF-FLL?

Form latest schedule update, a lot of added capacity to VFR markets, especially to DR out of NYC for this summer. This is taken from a Monday in July
NYC-SDQ
8 A321s out of JFK and 2 A320s out of EWR.
NYC-STI
5 A321s + 3 A320s out of JFK and 2 A320s out of EWR
Fewer A321s next summer on JFK-SJU. Maybe showing weak demand to SJU. MCO is seeing a little fewer E90s next summer I think.
NYC-SJU
1 A321 + 5 A320s out of JFK and 2 A320s out of EWR
Florida to SJU
4 A320s + 2 E90s out of MCO and 4 A320s + 1 E90 out of FLL
Really filling in nicely to PAP after AA cut JFK/FLL.
to PAP
2 A321s out of JFK, 1 A320 out of BOS, 3 A320s out of FLL, 1 E90 out of MCO
to KIN
2 A321s + 2 A320s out of JFK, 3 A320s out of FLL
POS is back to twice a day. GND is up also by August.
Others
1 A321 + 1 A320 JFK-POS, 2 A320s JFK-GND by August, 1 A320 JFK-POP

Also, I noticed that JFK-BUF is down to 5 a day next summer and PWM resumes with just 3 a day. Looks like continued shift of slot usage.

Also, it looks like SY is gone from JFK-MSP after first 2 weeks of January. Maybe a good time for B6 to enter. It's long enough of a flight where they should be able to fill 2 flights a day.

BOS-PDX - I understand that traffic is highly seasonal, the route is long, and the route has a strong competitor (AS) but is there another route between two top 40 MSA's operated seasonally with more than one daily frequency by another airline in the USA?

Midwestindy wrote:

stlgph wrote:

I really dont get the obsession with JetBlue coming in and doing Boston-Indianapolis.

I mean, if they want to, that's fine, just not sure why. Delta and Southwest aren't exactly setting new records on the route

BOS-IND is one of DL's best performing eastern US routes out of BOS

Average fares for Q2
DL BOS-MSY $128 (DL) *limited time service
DL BOS-PIT $133 (DL)
DL BOS-BUF $133 (DL)
DL BOS-CHS $157 (DL)
DL BOS-RIC $165 (DL)
DL BOS-JAX $186 (DL)
DL BOS-FLL $189 (DL)
DL BOS-MCI $195 (DL)
DL BOS-BNA $197 (DL)
DL BOS-RDU $203 (DL)
DL BOS-MIA $205 (DL)
DL BOS-ATL $209 (DL)
DL BOS-TPA $220 (DL)
DL BOS-DTW $226 (DL)
DL BOS-MCO $232 (DL)
DL BOS-MKE $239 (DL)
DL BOS-CMH $246 (DL)
DL BOS-AUS $250 (DL)
DL BOS-IND $253 (DL)
DL BOS-MSP $259 (DL)
DL BOS-CVG $282 (DL)
The flights do well LF wise as well, with LFs between 80-90%

It only makes sense for B6 to come in and try to weaken DL's position on the route. I am sure there are also some corporate entities on the BOS side pushing B6 to add this as well.

BOS is almost always the first market B6 looks to add when opening up new cities especially east of the mississippi, and BOS is the market they are most focussed on growing. With JFK limited slot wise, and the recent cutbacks on midwest/mid east flying from FLL, I would expect B6 to add BOS before anything else.

stlgph wrote:

If want some variety, you have to look for Southwest or Delta for anything decent, unless you're happy with 2 weekly sometimes throughout the year service on Allegiant or Frontier.

But by all means, let's care about the IND airport but then cheer for another airline to come in to knock off service on another carrier that seems to show some care for the service they provide here.

Not really pertinent to the Jetblue thread, but I'll take a stab at this one.

What has WN done for IND? In the past year they added 1xweekly service to AUS and CUN (routes that IND already has 2 carriers on), but at the same time cut LGA/EWR, DCA, and cut back BOS and LAX. They don't even run IND-SAN for more than 2 months a year, a market with close to 200 PDEW. You can even argue that the main reason they are still on IND-BOS is to throw a block on B6, and hurt DL.

If WN is as caring to the IND market as you alude to, then they will stick by the IND-BOS service if B6 adds it.

CVG sure seems ripe for the picking. Legacy carrier monopoly route with high fares.

Looks like loads on BOS-PSP are horrible...

Dieuwer wrote:

Looks like loads on BOS-PSP are horrible...

Lets revisit this in a couple of months... maybe a week or two before the first flight.

adamh8297 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

Looks like loads on BOS-PSP are horrible...

Lets revisit this in a couple of months... maybe a week or two before the first flight.

I should have been more precise: "PRE-BOOKINGS do not look very good".

Yep B6 is 6th.

Alright, October traffic release is out.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=57930
9.5% growth in RPM and 8.9% growth in ASM. LF up 0.5% YoY. Continued expectation for RASM to rise 1 to 4 point even with longer avg stage length. 78,8% On time.

The huge jump in RPM is probably due to all the cancelled flights last year in the aftermath of Maria.

WTI price has dropped quite a bit this quarter. This will help them in the next earning call. I think they will be able to maintain the current growth rate.

also interesting things of note based on B6's schedule extension is that they are up net 5 flights out of JFK/August even with the cuts to places like IAD/DAB. They must be getting really creative with some of these flight times. Otherwise, not sure where they are finding these slots. They've added 1 flight to ACK, BUR, KIN, LAX, MBJ, MEX, ONT, POS, SDQ, SLC, STI and PAP (not listed here) and cut the 3 flights to IAD, 1 to DAB, 1 from BUF/ORD/PWM.

Dieuwer wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

Looks like loads on BOS-PSP are horrible...

Lets revisit this in a couple of months... maybe a week or two before the first flight.

I should have been more precise: "PRE-BOOKINGS do not look very good".

Let's wait until people start getting cold. "Honey, let's go to Palm Springs and warm up".

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

Lets revisit this in a couple of months... maybe a week or two before the first flight.

I should have been more precise: "PRE-BOOKINGS do not look very good".

Let's wait until people start getting cold. "Honey, let's go to Palm Springs and warm up".

"He who waits, loses".
"The early bird gets the worm".
"You snooze, you lose".

Dieuwer wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

I should have been more precise: "PRE-BOOKINGS do not look very good".

Let's wait until people start getting cold. "Honey, let's go to Palm Springs and warm up".

"He who waits, loses".
"The early bird gets the worm".
"You snooze, you lose".

Not sure what that is about but I'll just add that when we planned a Disney trip, we planned well ahead. When we went on a cruise, we planned a decent amount of time ahead. When we planned Palm Springs, it was "We gotta get outta this weather - where do you wanna go?".

tphuang wrote:

Form latest schedule update, a lot of added capacity to VFR markets, especially to DR out of NYC for this summer. This is taken from a Monday in July
NYC-SDQ
8 A321s out of JFK and 2 A320s out of EWR.
NYC-STI
5 A321s + 3 A320s out of JFK and 2 A320s out of EWR
Fewer A321s next summer on JFK-SJU. Maybe showing weak demand to SJU. MCO is seeing a little fewer E90s next summer I think.
NYC-SJU
1 A321 + 5 A320s out of JFK and 2 A320s out of EWR
Florida to SJU
4 A320s + 2 E90s out of MCO and 4 A320s + 1 E90 out of FLL
Really filling in nicely to PAP after AA cut JFK/FLL.
to PAP
2 A321s out of JFK, 1 A320 out of BOS, 3 A320s out of FLL, 1 E90 out of MCO
to KIN
2 A321s + 2 A320s out of JFK, 3 A320s out of FLL
POS is back to twice a day. GND is up also by August.
Others
1 A321 + 1 A320 JFK-POS, 2 A320s JFK-GND by August, 1 A320 JFK-POP

Also, I noticed that JFK-BUF is down to 5 a day next summer and PWM resumes with just 3 a day. Looks like continued shift of slot usage.

Also, it looks like SY is gone from JFK-MSP after first 2 weeks of January. Maybe a good time for B6 to enter. It's long enough of a flight where they should be able to fill 2 flights a day.

Thanks for posting. That is an incredible amount of capacity to the Islands. To your point, it appears PR continues to show weakness, and I (sadly) believe that PR will never fully recover.

I would love to see B6 add JFK-MSP too, but with slots limited they'll need to get creative if they do so. It would also be good to see B6 add JFK-DFW, given how well they do on JFK-HOU.

adamh8297 wrote:

BOS-PDX - I understand that traffic is highly seasonal, the route is long, and the route has a strong competitor (AS) but is there another route between two top 40 MSA's operated seasonally with more than one daily frequency by another airline in the USA?

Funny observation. Maybe some of the ANC flights? (Although I'm not sure ANC is considered Top 40.)

tphuang wrote:

Yep B6 is 6th.

Alright, October traffic release is out.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=57930
9.5% growth in RPM and 8.9% growth in ASM. LF up 0.5% YoY. Continued expectation for RASM to rise 1 to 4 point even with longer avg stage length. 78,8% On time.

The huge jump in RPM is probably due to all the cancelled flights last year in the aftermath of Maria.

WTI price has dropped quite a bit this quarter. This will help them in the next earning call. I think they will be able to maintain the current growth rate.

also interesting things of note based on B6's schedule extension is that they are up net 5 flights out of JFK/August even with the cuts to places like IAD/DAB. They must be getting really creative with some of these flight times. Otherwise, not sure where they are finding these slots. They've added 1 flight to ACK, BUR, KIN, LAX, MBJ, MEX, ONT, POS, SDQ, SLC, STI and PAP (not listed here) and cut the 3 flights to IAD, 1 to DAB, 1 from BUF/ORD/PWM.

Good numbers, and I'm glad to see OTP be okay-ish.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Let's wait until people start getting cold. "Honey, let's go to Palm Springs and warm up".

"He who waits, loses".
"The early bird gets the worm".
"You snooze, you lose".

Not sure what that is about but I'll just add that when we planned a Disney trip, we planned well ahead. When we went on a cruise, we planned a decent amount of time ahead. When we planned Palm Springs, it was "We gotta get outta this weather - where do you wanna go?".

B6 management has, time and again, stated how "bad" the Northeast winter is has a material impact on bookings to the Islands and Florida. I, for one, and am much more inclined to book a trip to FLL when it's frigid in NYC and I need a reprieve. I would be less inclined to do so if the weather is more bearable.

Trying to read the tea leaves on the performance of a route months before it launches is a futile exercise. Much like JFK-PSP, I expect BOS-PSP to be a success.

I guess I am just annoyed at JetBlue for announcing these flights so late. I already made plans to fly to LAX and then drive...

adamh8297 wrote:

BOS-PDX - I understand that traffic is highly seasonal, the route is long, and the route has a strong competitor (AS) but is there another route between two top 40 MSA's operated seasonally with more than one daily frequency by another airline in the USA?

AS adding a second flight on the route certainly doesn't help. Even before then, the flights were seasonal, though. I don't understand it, and I probably never will. I hear the "PDX traffic is seasonal" argument a lot, and while that is very true, I would think that in order for B6 to stay competitive in the market, that they should make at least one of their BOS-PDX flights year-round. I wouldn't expect that to happen anytime soon, given the second AS flight, and also since JFK-PDX is now down to 4x weekly in the winter months...

PDX is a very low-yielding station for B6, as is with many west-coast markets for them, aside from the typical 4 powerhouse west-coast stations: SEA, SFO, LAX and SAN.

FA9295 wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

BOS-PDX - I understand that traffic is highly seasonal, the route is long, and the route has a strong competitor (AS) but is there another route between two top 40 MSA's operated seasonally with more than one daily frequency by another airline in the USA?

AS adding a second flight on the route certainly doesn't help. Even before then, the flights were seasonal, though. I don't understand it, and I probably never will. I hear the "PDX traffic is seasonal" argument a lot, and while that is very true, I would think that in order for B6 to stay competitive in the market, that they should make at least one of their BOS-PDX flights year-round. I wouldn't expect that to happen anytime soon, given the second AS flight, and also since JFK-PDX is now down to 4x weekly in the winter months...

PDX is a very low-yielding station for B6, as is with many west-coast markets for them, aside from the typical 4 powerhouse west-coast stations: SEA, SFO, LAX and SAN.

Will AS's second flight actually be year round? I don't see it getting added until around May and then who know what's going to happen once the fall season actually comes around. AS has done plenty of trimming of PDX in the past year. Given that in the fall/winter season, there is only 2.5 flights a day on JFK-PDX, it's hard to see that this route can support 2 daily flight in off season. The problem right now is that A320 is not a good aircraft for this route. A321 is too much capacity. A220-300 with a mini-first class would be perfect.

tphuang wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

BOS-PDX - I understand that traffic is highly seasonal, the route is long, and the route has a strong competitor (AS) but is there another route between two top 40 MSA's operated seasonally with more than one daily frequency by another airline in the USA?

AS adding a second flight on the route certainly doesn't help. Even before then, the flights were seasonal, though. I don't understand it, and I probably never will. I hear the "PDX traffic is seasonal" argument a lot, and while that is very true, I would think that in order for B6 to stay competitive in the market, that they should make at least one of their BOS-PDX flights year-round. I wouldn't expect that to happen anytime soon, given the second AS flight, and also since JFK-PDX is now down to 4x weekly in the winter months...

PDX is a very low-yielding station for B6, as is with many west-coast markets for them, aside from the typical 4 powerhouse west-coast stations: SEA, SFO, LAX and SAN.

Will AS's second flight actually be year round? I don't see it getting added until around May and then who know what's going to happen once the fall season actually comes around. AS has done plenty of trimming of PDX in the past year. Given that in the fall/winter season, there is only 2.5 flights a day on JFK-PDX, it's hard to see that this route can support 2 daily flight in off season. The problem right now is that A320 is not a good aircraft for this route. A321 is too much capacity. A220-300 with a mini-first class would be perfect.

AS's second flight was initially scheduled to be year-round, but they then cut the flight in the winter months. There will be a second flight for a few weeks during the Thanksgiving and Christmas season, but then that flight doesn't return until April 16, 2019. In January, February and the first two weeks of March, the single AS PDX-BOS flight is only scheduled to operate 6x weekly (they appear to have cut the Saturday frequency).

alright, a couple of notes from WN schedule extension. BOS-IND is going Sat Only and BOS-BNA is going to 4x.

It seems like there is no better time to enter IND than now. WN had trouble filling 2 daily flights of 737-800. It should be a lot easier for B6 to fill E90s.

And given both WN + DL are now 4x daily on BNA, B6 should consider going to 3x daily there.

tphuang wrote:

BOS-IND is going Sat Only

B6 has to be coming in and WN got tipped off by someone at IND. This Saturday flight must be for positioning purposes.

adamh8297 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

BOS-IND is going Sat Only

B6 has to be coming in and WN got tipped off by someone at IND. This Saturday flight must be for positioning purposes.

I think the Sat flights are for connections to florida, they are running the flight BOS-IND-RSW with no plane change through IND

tphuang wrote:

alright, a couple of notes from WN schedule extension. BOS-IND is going Sat Only and BOS-BNA is going to 4x.

It seems like there is no better time to enter IND than now. WN had trouble filling 2 daily flights of 737-800. It should be a lot easier for B6 to fill E90s.

And given both WN + DL are now 4x daily on BNA, B6 should consider going to 3x daily there.

B6 should have no problem now, as long as DL doesn't get too combative on the route. WN had the largest market share on the route, so there is an enormous void in the market to the tune of around 300 seats each way per day.

There are some business ties between the Boston area and the Portland area that I am sure AS manages to capture a good amount of, which may be one of the reasons why AS is able to run PDX-BOS year round. Converse, which is owned by Nike, has it HQ in Boston. Adidas has its North American HQ in Portland and Reebok has its HQ in Boston.

FA9295 wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

BOS-PDX - I understand that traffic is highly seasonal, the route is long, and the route has a strong competitor (AS) but is there another route between two top 40 MSA's operated seasonally with more than one daily frequency by another airline in the USA?

AS adding a second flight on the route certainly doesn't help. Even before then, the flights were seasonal, though. I don't understand it, and I probably never will. I hear the "PDX traffic is seasonal" argument a lot, and while that is very true, I would think that in order for B6 to stay competitive in the market, that they should make at least one of their BOS-PDX flights year-round. I wouldn't expect that to happen anytime soon, given the second AS flight, and also since JFK-PDX is now down to 4x weekly in the winter months...

PDX is a very low-yielding station for B6, as is with many west-coast markets for them, aside from the typical 4 powerhouse west-coast stations: SEA, SFO, LAX and SAN.

I actually think B6 ran BOS-PDX year-round for a few years, but more recently has been running it summer seasonal. To your point, PDX is just not a good market for B6, and with JFK-PDX running less-than-daily it certainly doesn't bode well for future growth.

I agree that B6 makes most of its money from the 4 powerhouse West Coast stations (although it's debatable if SEA is profitable...I bet JFK does fine, but BOS is a bloodbath), but I also think B6 makes money at BUR, LGB transcon, SMF, and even PSP and SJC. I think PDX is uniquely "bad" for B6 given that (1) it's a smaller and more seasonal market than most other West Coast B6 markets, and (2) AS has a significant focus city, and likely dominates PDX point-of-sale.

B752OS wrote:

There are some business ties between the Boston area and the Portland area that I am sure AS manages to capture a good amount of, which may be one of the reasons why AS is able to run PDX-BOS year round. Converse, which is owned by Nike, has it HQ in Boston. Adidas has its North American HQ in Portland and Reebok has its HQ in Boston.

Great info, thanks for sharing. I also believe that Portland has a growing biopharma industry, which may further strengthen connections with Boston. (I may be wrong about that though.)

tphuang wrote:

alright, a couple of notes from WN schedule extension. BOS-IND is going Sat Only and BOS-BNA is going to 4x.

It seems like there is no better time to enter IND than now. WN had trouble filling 2 daily flights of 737-800. It should be a lot easier for B6 to fill E90s.

And given both WN + DL are now 4x daily on BNA, B6 should consider going to 3x daily there.

I have a feeling B6 will announce BOS-IND soon. If not now, then it's never going to happen.

Crazy to see BOS-BNA go to 4x on WN and DL. B6 is really not competitive here, which is surprising given that they tend to have far greater capacity in many other BOS markets where they overlap with WN or DL (outside of their hubs, obviously). My understanding is that this market is not high yielding for anyone, so I'm not sure what the end-game is here.

Looking through the WN thread, this latest WN schedule extension is really the gift that keeps giving for B6.

Out of BOS, they reduced ATL to 1x daily, HOU to 1x daily. I'm not sure how they stick around on ATL for another year. HOU is a huge bloodbath and I think this might stabilize the yield a little bit for both parties. It's one of the worst performing routes for B6.

FLL-PHL/ISP/BUF/ALB/PVD/BDL are all gone over the summer. From what I can see based on Q3 boarded passenger count from last year, WN was running all of these (ALB looks like only half of the days). So good news all around for B6 out of FLL. Especially on a route like PHL, where B6 and WN have both been struggling. Will be interesting to which ones come back, but . They've already cut EWR/IAD this year. As I posted earlier this thread, they've been beating up on WN on many of the Northeastern routes. Things could obviously change, but it looks like WN is moving its focus away from FLL.

Also on the subject of BOS-BNA, B6 performance has actually been pretty good. From Q2.

Delta regional 9E had average fare of $193 with 89% LF
B6 on A320 had average fare of $172 with 89% LF
WN B738 had average fareof $156 with 86% LF

I think they can certainly add another flight to keep up with the schedule.

tphuang wrote:

As I posted earlier this thread, they've been beating up on WN on many of the Northeastern routes. Things could obviously change, but it looks like WN is moving its focus away from FLL.

There are actually still some additional new domestic nonstop routes such as FLL-CVG, FLL-CLE, FLL-SDF, FLL-OMA, FLL-ORF, and FLL-SAN that could still be added by WN at FLL, but B6 doesn't currently serve CVG, SDF, OMA, or ORF.

While B6 already serves FLL nonstop from CLE and SAN, WN had previously said that it was considering adding FLL-CLE nonstop service. In addition, WN could also add FLL-SAN nonstop service since there are some travelers in Greater San Diego who prefer to fly on WN over B6. The B6 SAN-FLL nonstop flight is also currently a redeye flight, and there are also some travelers in the SAN market who prefer to take a daytime nonstop to FLL over a redeye flight.

tphuang wrote:

Looking through the WN thread, this latest WN schedule extension is really the gift that keeps giving for B6.

Out of BOS, they reduced ATL to 1x daily, HOU to 1x daily. I'm not sure how they stick around on ATL for another year. HOU is a huge bloodbath and I think this might stabilize the yield a little bit for both parties. It's one of the worst performing routes for B6.

FLL-PHL/ISP/BUF/ALB/PVD/BDL are all gone over the summer. From what I can see based on Q3 boarded passenger count from last year, WN was running all of these (ALB looks like only half of the days). So good news all around for B6 out of FLL. Especially on a route like PHL, where B6 and WN have both been struggling. Will be interesting to which ones come back, but . They've already cut EWR/IAD this year. As I posted earlier this thread, they've been beating up on WN on many of the Northeastern routes. Things could obviously change, but it looks like WN is moving its focus away from FLL.

Also on the subject of BOS-BNA, B6 performance has actually been pretty good. From Q2.

Delta regional 9E had average fare of $193 with 89% LF
B6 on A320 had average fare of $172 with 89% LF
WN B738 had average fareof $156 with 86% LF

I think they can certainly add another flight to keep up with the schedule.

Can't say I'm surprised to see the BOS reductions. At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see WN completely leave the BOS-ATL market. And the HOU reduction should certainly help stabilize the market. It's remarkable to me how poor of a market this is for both B6/WN....are the links between Houston and the Boston area just not that strong? Or is there just such a preference for IAH (which UA has to itself)?

The WN FLL seasonal suspensions are shocking, especially since WN has been growing at an annual rate of 20%+ at FLL (per the Broward County airport statistics website). Except for ISP, B6 competes in all these markets. I wonder if there was some "unspoken agreement" between the two on the heels of B6 pulling out of FLL-DTW/BWI/PIT (where WN is arguably stronger).

Thanks for posting the BNA numbers. The B6 numbers actually look pretty good, as do DL's (although I assume the DL CASM is significantly higher). I wonder if the WN addition is focused more on funneling connecting passengers over BNA instead of O&D, given how much their average fare lags B6/DL...

jplatts wrote:

tphuang wrote:

As I posted earlier this thread, they've been beating up on WN on many of the Northeastern routes. Things could obviously change, but it looks like WN is moving its focus away from FLL.

There are actually still some additional new domestic nonstop routes such as FLL-CVG, FLL-CLE, FLL-SDF, FLL-OMA, FLL-ORF, and FLL-SAN that could still be added by WN at FLL, but B6 doesn't currently serve CVG, SDF, OMA, or ORF.

While B6 already serves FLL nonstop from CLE and SAN, WN had previously said that it was considering adding FLL-CLE nonstop service. In addition, WN could also add FLL-SAN nonstop service since there are some travelers in Greater San Diego who prefer to fly on WN over B6. The B6 SAN-FLL nonstop flight is also currently a redeye flight, and there are also some travelers in the SAN market who prefer to take a daytime nonstop to FLL over a redeye flight.

It's hard for me to see WN add SAN-FLL. The market just isn't that big, and it's fairly low yielding for B6. WN has also pretty much stayed away from transcons from FLL, which I would assume is in no small part to B6's presence at LAX, SFO, SAN, LAS, SLC, and soon PHX (although I believe WN flies LAS-FLL due to the presence of the LAS hub). That said, I'm sure travelers would love to have a daytime option to choose from...

Keep in mind, FLL is closing their main runway from June to October 2019. WN is likely being proactive by trimming the schedule, whereas B6 is not known for operational foresight and will likely suffer major difficulties as a result of trying to jam 10 pounds of sh*t in a 5 pound bag.

FLL will be a complete nightmare in S19.

Does JetBlue not have the advantage over WN to prop-up loss-making routes with revenues from (other) Mint-containing routes?

trueblew wrote:

Keep in mind, FLL is closing their main runway from June to October 2019. WN is likely being proactive by trimming the schedule, whereas B6 is not known for operational foresight and will likely suffer major difficulties as a result of trying to jam 10 pounds of sh*t in a 5 pound bag.

FLL will be a complete nightmare in S19.

Yet, NK is not cutting back from FLL for some reason and they have far and away the best OTP numbers among LCCs. It would be great if you can take a look at the yield I posted out of FLL. WN is simply struggling in a lot of these Northeastern routes. If WN really wanted to reduce schedule for better operations, they can cut those 8 flights to TPA/MCO which are mostly connection or one of the 10 flights to BWI. Instead, B6 now has monopoly on 4 routes that will make the bottom line look pretty good.

DCA has more operations per day than FLL. The one runway will hurt OTP for all carriers. I don't see why cutting 6 flights is going to dramatically improve one's OTP when gate constraint is not an issue.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

The WN FLL seasonal suspensions are shocking, especially since WN has been growing at an annual rate of 20%+ at FLL (per the Broward County airport statistics website). Except for ISP, B6 competes in all these markets. I wonder if there was some "unspoken agreement" between the two on the heels of B6 pulling out of FLL-DTW/BWI/PIT (where WN is arguably stronger).

I think the 1 runway is part of the reason, but I think WN's underperformance on those routes is a big part of it. I don't expect all those routes to come back in November. Getting wiped out of NorthEast is never a good way to build a large station in South Florida.

I took a look at a sample Monday in July.
103 B6 flights vs 76 WN flights

Dieuwer wrote:

Does JetBlue not have the advantage over WN to prop-up loss-making routes with revenues from (other) Mint-containing routes?

They could and so could WN, who has more resources from other stations. But it looks like at least for now, WN is focused on AS in Cali and HI plus other stations like BNA and STL this year. And they have also targeted a much lower growth next year which is why they are cutting back at BOS/FLL, all helping B6. B6 should give AS a giant hug. The fuel prices are also dropping rapidly. All those fuel hedges WN put in are going to hurt them the next 2 quarters.

Does JetBlue typically do something special for an inaugurational flight?

tphuang wrote:

trueblew wrote:

Keep in mind, FLL is closing their main runway from June to October 2019. WN is likely being proactive by trimming the schedule, whereas B6 is not known for operational foresight and will likely suffer major difficulties as a result of trying to jam 10 pounds of sh*t in a 5 pound bag.

FLL will be a complete nightmare in S19.

Yet, NK is not cutting back from FLL for some reason and they have far and away the best OTP numbers among LCCs. It would be great if you can take a look at the yield I posted out of FLL. WN is simply struggling in a lot of these Northeastern routes. If WN really wanted to reduce schedule for better operations, they can cut those 8 flights to TPA/MCO which are mostly connection or one of the 10 flights to BWI. Instead, B6 now has monopoly on 4 routes that will make the bottom line look pretty good.

DCA has more operations per day than FLL. The one runway will hurt OTP for all carriers. I don't see why cutting 6 flights is going to dramatically improve one's OTP when gate constraint is not an issue.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

The WN FLL seasonal suspensions are shocking, especially since WN has been growing at an annual rate of 20%+ at FLL (per the Broward County airport statistics website). Except for ISP, B6 competes in all these markets. I wonder if there was some "unspoken agreement" between the two on the heels of B6 pulling out of FLL-DTW/BWI/PIT (where WN is arguably stronger).

I think the 1 runway is part of the reason, but I think WN's underperformance on those routes is a big part of it. I don't expect all those routes to come back in November. Getting wiped out of NorthEast is never a good way to build a large station in South Florida.

I took a look at a sample Monday in July.
103 B6 flights vs 76 WN flights

Dieuwer wrote:

Does JetBlue not have the advantage over WN to prop-up loss-making routes with revenues from (other) Mint-containing routes?

They could and so could WN, who has more resources from other stations. But it looks like at least for now, WN is focused on AS in Cali and HI plus other stations like BNA and STL this year. And they have also targeted a much lower growth next year which is why they are cutting back at BOS/FLL, all helping B6. B6 should give AS a giant hug. The fuel prices are also dropping rapidly. All those fuel hedges WN put in are going to hurt them the next 2 quarters.

I think WN's inability to make NYC work from FLL, and its cutback in other Northeast markets from FLL, says a lot about WN's weakness with FLL point-of-sale. In theory they should be able to rely on FLL point-of-sale to fill up even just a few flights to EWR/LGA, even if such flights are just at break-even. Their inability to do so does not bode well for future growth, and makes me question whether their recent LatAm/Caribbean additions will be a drag on the bottom line. If they aren't filling up planes to New York, then how are they going to compete in thinner markets where B6/NK are already entrenched?

To your point, B6 does have AS to thank for diverting WN's attention. There are only so many battles an airline can fight at one time, and at some point you have to cut your losses. With the three-way battle between WN/NK/B6 @ FLL (and AA @ MIA), there is only so much red ink that can be spilled before someone balks.