Blueknows wrote:

Get ready for more B6 cuts beginning of January. Also this week big announcement. Listen for news from Boston on Wednesday.

Well....any word from Boston?

BQN is limited on daytime flights. The airport only operates a night. So unless that changes it’s jight flights baby

Huge pocket session in BOS Thursday. Wonder what they are going to announce ?

Blueknows wrote:

Huge pocket session in BOS Thursday. Wonder what they are going to announce?

I think that B6 might possibly announce service to CVG, and B6 could add nonstop service to BOS, JFK, and FLL from CVG if B6 adds service to CVG.

Blueknows wrote:

Huge pocket session in BOS Thursday. Wonder what they are going to announce ?

Do they have to 'announce' anything? From what I can gather a pocket session is Q&A, and there should be plenty to cover from what was already announced.

Blueknows wrote:

Huge pocket session in BOS Thursday. Wonder what they are going to announce ?

“Robin, Joanna and other Leaders will recap Investor Day and Q3 earnings, and invite your questions and feedback.”

Yeah. Gonna be yuuuge.

Blueknows wrote:

Huge pocket session in BOS Thursday. Wonder what they are going to announce ?

Still waiting on Wednesday, Blue....

In my 12 years at B6, nothing "Amazing" was ever announced at pocket sessions. Just Q and A about recent financials and possible future routes. Nothing ground breaking... just lots of "Maybes" and "We will look into it"

BQN only operatesat night? Where do people make up this crap from? No, BQN operates 24/7. B6 even operates day flights during the summer.

Blueknows wrote:

Huge pocket session in BOS Thursday. Wonder what they are going to announce ?

Blueknows wrote:

BQN is limited on daytime flights. The airport only operates a night. So unless that changes it’s jight flights baby

I think we are seeing Blueknows’ credibility shrink before our very eyes

And then!
Nothing happened.
If they were going to announce anything it would have been at investor day or the Q earnings.

FLL-GYE is now scheduled in
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=57418

Interesting that they can use T1 for international arrivals also.

tphuang wrote:

FLL-GYE is now scheduled in
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=57418

Interesting that they can use T1 for international arrivals also.

Yes B6 has priority on gate A6 while CM/UP use A7 in Terminal 1. Currently all Cuba and Cancun arrivals are handled in Terminal 1. When the construction is finished on Terminal 4, B6 will return gates G1/G2 to the county and take gates G7-G10 which are closer to new offices & break rooms.

Another look at Q2 data. This time for non-mint transcons. Since different flights have different distances. It's not easy to compare yield or PRASM to each other. So I did 3 tests here. One assuming $50 as base yield needed, one $65 and one for $85. the idea is every flight has a minimum cost needed for airport charges, taxes, crew cost and such. Everything on top of that like fuel cost is distance related. So I used these 3 different numbers to basically try to normalize the distance factor and compare all the flights relative to each other.

I think the results are not too surprising. I have this sorted based on 65 Base. JFK-BUR is consistently one of their top flights and same with JFK-SMF. PSP does really well in the peak season of March and April, so the numbers are high here. JFK-PHX is also always ones of their highest performing ones. BOS-SJC did better this quarter than a lot of recent quarters. JFK-LGB is also always quite high performing (helps to have a daytime flight). On SMF, I wonder if they will extend BOS-SMF a little more and maybe even do a seasonal FLL-SMF flight.

CityPair Dist Board NSFare SeatPerFlight LF Yield 50Base 65Base 80Base
JFKSMF 2521 28031 242.58 166.7 93.44% 226.66 29.426 30.601 31.775
JFKBUR 2465 23750 239.51 150.0 92.05% 220.48 26.517 27.332 28.147
BOSSJC 2689 20365 264.58 150.0 87.03% 230.26 23.215 25.467 27.719
JFKPSP 2378 7831 248.26 150.0 85.58% 212.47 23.588 23.845 24.102
JFKPHX 2153 23800 226.63 150.0 88.15% 199.77 24.029 22.842 21.655
JFKLGB 2465 49083 237.44 150.0 90.64% 215.22 21.257 22.072 22.887
BOSPHX 2300 24850 217.49 150.0 90.53% 196.89 12.563 12.320 12.076
JFKSJC 2569 24612 223.17 150.0 93.76% 209.25 09.213 10.695 12.178
BOSLGB 2602 24282 226.26 150.0 91.46% 206.93 04.966 06.660 08.354
BUFLAX 2218 22023 210.62 150.0 86.36% 181.90 02.363 01.593 00.823
JFKSLC 1990 25338 189.67 150.0 89.38% 169.52 03.298 01.066 -01.167
BOSPDX 2537 18312 216.67 150.0 87.83% 190.29 -07.878 -06.601 -05.324
FLLLAS 2173 23407 195.51 150.0 86.21% 168.56 -08.349 -09.408 -10.466
JFKOAK 2576 21914 206.17 150.0 90.74% 187.08 -13.366 -11.838 -10.311
JFKPDX 2454 23601 203.85 150.0 87.41% 178.19 -15.131 -14.386 -13.642
FLLSAN 2269 23797 190.63 150.0 88.14% 168.01 -14.506 -14.948 -15.391
MCOSLC 1931 23638 173.21 150.0 86.59% 149.97 -12.806 -15.417 -18.028
JFKRNO 2411 17394 205.41 150.0 83.42% 171.36 -19.449 -18.981 -18.512
FLLLGB 2327 23908 190.98 150.0 87.10% 166.33 -19.573 -19.644 -19.714
FLLSLC 2084 23253 173.60 150.0 86.12% 149.51 -22.202 -23.831 -25.460
MCOLAX 2218 25174 168.43 150.0 92.72% 156.17 -23.367 -24.137 -24.907
BOSSLC 2105 24750 171.73 150.0 86.84% 149.13 -23.808 -25.303 -26.797

At the bottom, it's not much a surprise that SLC flights are the worst performing ones. Especially how bad BOS-SLC was this quarter (normally it's not this terrible). MCO-LAX is a bloodbath that hopefully will ease now that AS and F9 have exited the market. I expect that to improve since they've reduced it to 4 per week. FLL-LGB is gone and replaced by FLL-PHX.

JFK-RNO is the clear weak link here out of JFK that performs terribly. Even PDX, which is pretty weak due to some horrible flight times, does better. I can't see RNO lasting much longer in the B6 network. They constantly do pretty well on these JFK to west coast flights, seems like they can pick something better than RNO.

tphuang wrote:

Another look at Q2 data. This time for non-mint transcons. Since different flights have different distances. It's not easy to compare yield or PRASM to each other. So I did 3 tests here. One assuming $50 as base yield needed, one $65 and one for $85. the idea is every flight has a minimum cost needed for airport charges, taxes, crew cost and such. Everything on top of that like fuel cost is distance related. So I used these 3 different numbers to basically try to normalize the distance factor and compare all the flights relative to each other.

I think the results are not too surprising. I have this sorted based on 65 Base. JFK-BUR is consistently one of their top flights and same with JFK-SMF. PSP does really well in the peak season of March and April, so the numbers are high here. JFK-PHX is also always ones of their highest performing ones. BOS-SJC did better this quarter than a lot of recent quarters. JFK-LGB is also always quite high performing (helps to have a daytime flight). On SMF, I wonder if they will extend BOS-SMF a little more and maybe even do a seasonal FLL-SMF flight.

CityPair Dist Board NSFare SeatPerFlight LF Yield 50Base 65Base 80Base
JFKSMF 2521 28031 242.58 166.7 93.44% 226.66 29.426 30.601 31.775
JFKBUR 2465 23750 239.51 150.0 92.05% 220.48 26.517 27.332 28.147
BOSSJC 2689 20365 264.58 150.0 87.03% 230.26 23.215 25.467 27.719
JFKPSP 2378 7831 248.26 150.0 85.58% 212.47 23.588 23.845 24.102
JFKPHX 2153 23800 226.63 150.0 88.15% 199.77 24.029 22.842 21.655
JFKLGB 2465 49083 237.44 150.0 90.64% 215.22 21.257 22.072 22.887
BOSPHX 2300 24850 217.49 150.0 90.53% 196.89 12.563 12.320 12.076
JFKSJC 2569 24612 223.17 150.0 93.76% 209.25 09.213 10.695 12.178
BOSLGB 2602 24282 226.26 150.0 91.46% 206.93 04.966 06.660 08.354
BUFLAX 2218 22023 210.62 150.0 86.36% 181.90 02.363 01.593 00.823
JFKSLC 1990 25338 189.67 150.0 89.38% 169.52 03.298 01.066 -01.167
BOSPDX 2537 18312 216.67 150.0 87.83% 190.29 -07.878 -06.601 -05.324
FLLLAS 2173 23407 195.51 150.0 86.21% 168.56 -08.349 -09.408 -10.466
JFKOAK 2576 21914 206.17 150.0 90.74% 187.08 -13.366 -11.838 -10.311
JFKPDX 2454 23601 203.85 150.0 87.41% 178.19 -15.131 -14.386 -13.642
FLLSAN 2269 23797 190.63 150.0 88.14% 168.01 -14.506 -14.948 -15.391
MCOSLC 1931 23638 173.21 150.0 86.59% 149.97 -12.806 -15.417 -18.028
JFKRNO 2411 17394 205.41 150.0 83.42% 171.36 -19.449 -18.981 -18.512
FLLLGB 2327 23908 190.98 150.0 87.10% 166.33 -19.573 -19.644 -19.714
FLLSLC 2084 23253 173.60 150.0 86.12% 149.51 -22.202 -23.831 -25.460
MCOLAX 2218 25174 168.43 150.0 92.72% 156.17 -23.367 -24.137 -24.907
BOSSLC 2105 24750 171.73 150.0 86.84% 149.13 -23.808 -25.303 -26.797

At the bottom, it's not much a surprise that SLC flights are the worst performing ones. Especially how bad BOS-SLC was this quarter (normally it's not this terrible). MCO-LAX is a bloodbath that hopefully will ease now that AS and F9 have exited the market. I expect that to improve since they've reduced it to 4 per week. FLL-LGB is gone and replaced by FLL-PHX.

JFK-RNO is the clear weak link here out of JFK that performs terribly. Even PDX, which is pretty weak due to some horrible flight times, does better. I can't see RNO lasting much longer in the B6 network. They constantly do pretty well on these JFK to west coast flights, seems like they can pick something better than RNO.

FLL transcons look pretty bad.

tphuang wrote:

Another look at Q2 data. This time for non-mint transcons. Since different flights have different distances. It's not easy to compare yield or PRASM to each other. So I did 3 tests here. One assuming $50 as base yield needed, one $65 and one for $85. the idea is every flight has a minimum cost needed for airport charges, taxes, crew cost and such. Everything on top of that like fuel cost is distance related. So I used these 3 different numbers to basically try to normalize the distance factor and compare all the flights relative to each other.

I think the results are not too surprising. I have this sorted based on 65 Base. JFK-BUR is consistently one of their top flights and same with JFK-SMF. PSP does really well in the peak season of March and April, so the numbers are high here. JFK-PHX is also always ones of their highest performing ones. BOS-SJC did better this quarter than a lot of recent quarters. JFK-LGB is also always quite high performing (helps to have a daytime flight). On SMF, I wonder if they will extend BOS-SMF a little more and maybe even do a seasonal FLL-SMF flight.

CityPair Dist Board NSFare SeatPerFlight LF Yield 50Base 65Base 80Base
JFKSMF 2521 28031 242.58 166.7 93.44% 226.66 29.426 30.601 31.775
JFKBUR 2465 23750 239.51 150.0 92.05% 220.48 26.517 27.332 28.147
BOSSJC 2689 20365 264.58 150.0 87.03% 230.26 23.215 25.467 27.719
JFKPSP 2378 7831 248.26 150.0 85.58% 212.47 23.588 23.845 24.102
JFKPHX 2153 23800 226.63 150.0 88.15% 199.77 24.029 22.842 21.655
JFKLGB 2465 49083 237.44 150.0 90.64% 215.22 21.257 22.072 22.887
BOSPHX 2300 24850 217.49 150.0 90.53% 196.89 12.563 12.320 12.076
JFKSJC 2569 24612 223.17 150.0 93.76% 209.25 09.213 10.695 12.178
BOSLGB 2602 24282 226.26 150.0 91.46% 206.93 04.966 06.660 08.354
BUFLAX 2218 22023 210.62 150.0 86.36% 181.90 02.363 01.593 00.823
JFKSLC 1990 25338 189.67 150.0 89.38% 169.52 03.298 01.066 -01.167
BOSPDX 2537 18312 216.67 150.0 87.83% 190.29 -07.878 -06.601 -05.324
FLLLAS 2173 23407 195.51 150.0 86.21% 168.56 -08.349 -09.408 -10.466
JFKOAK 2576 21914 206.17 150.0 90.74% 187.08 -13.366 -11.838 -10.311
JFKPDX 2454 23601 203.85 150.0 87.41% 178.19 -15.131 -14.386 -13.642
FLLSAN 2269 23797 190.63 150.0 88.14% 168.01 -14.506 -14.948 -15.391
MCOSLC 1931 23638 173.21 150.0 86.59% 149.97 -12.806 -15.417 -18.028
JFKRNO 2411 17394 205.41 150.0 83.42% 171.36 -19.449 -18.981 -18.512
FLLLGB 2327 23908 190.98 150.0 87.10% 166.33 -19.573 -19.644 -19.714
FLLSLC 2084 23253 173.60 150.0 86.12% 149.51 -22.202 -23.831 -25.460
MCOLAX 2218 25174 168.43 150.0 92.72% 156.17 -23.367 -24.137 -24.907
BOSSLC 2105 24750 171.73 150.0 86.84% 149.13 -23.808 -25.303 -26.797

At the bottom, it's not much a surprise that SLC flights are the worst performing ones. Especially how bad BOS-SLC was this quarter (normally it's not this terrible). MCO-LAX is a bloodbath that hopefully will ease now that AS and F9 have exited the market. I expect that to improve since they've reduced it to 4 per week. FLL-LGB is gone and replaced by FLL-PHX.

JFK-RNO is the clear weak link here out of JFK that performs terribly. Even PDX, which is pretty weak due to some horrible flight times, does better. I can't see RNO lasting much longer in the B6 network. They constantly do pretty well on these JFK to west coast flights, seems like they can pick something better than RNO.

Can you explain what 50 Base, 65 Base, and 80 Base mean? This is interesting info, thanks.

cledaybuck wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Another look at Q2 data. This time for non-mint transcons. Since different flights have different distances. It's not easy to compare yield or PRASM to each other. So I did 3 tests here. One assuming $50 as base yield needed, one $65 and one for $85. the idea is every flight has a minimum cost needed for airport charges, taxes, crew cost and such. Everything on top of that like fuel cost is distance related. So I used these 3 different numbers to basically try to normalize the distance factor and compare all the flights relative to each other.

I think the results are not too surprising. I have this sorted based on 65 Base. JFK-BUR is consistently one of their top flights and same with JFK-SMF. PSP does really well in the peak season of March and April, so the numbers are high here. JFK-PHX is also always ones of their highest performing ones. BOS-SJC did better this quarter than a lot of recent quarters. JFK-LGB is also always quite high performing (helps to have a daytime flight). On SMF, I wonder if they will extend BOS-SMF a little more and maybe even do a seasonal FLL-SMF flight.

CityPair Dist Board NSFare SeatPerFlight LF Yield 50Base 65Base 80Base
JFKSMF 2521 28031 242.58 166.7 93.44% 226.66 29.426 30.601 31.775
JFKBUR 2465 23750 239.51 150.0 92.05% 220.48 26.517 27.332 28.147
BOSSJC 2689 20365 264.58 150.0 87.03% 230.26 23.215 25.467 27.719
JFKPSP 2378 7831 248.26 150.0 85.58% 212.47 23.588 23.845 24.102
JFKPHX 2153 23800 226.63 150.0 88.15% 199.77 24.029 22.842 21.655
JFKLGB 2465 49083 237.44 150.0 90.64% 215.22 21.257 22.072 22.887
BOSPHX 2300 24850 217.49 150.0 90.53% 196.89 12.563 12.320 12.076
JFKSJC 2569 24612 223.17 150.0 93.76% 209.25 09.213 10.695 12.178
BOSLGB 2602 24282 226.26 150.0 91.46% 206.93 04.966 06.660 08.354
BUFLAX 2218 22023 210.62 150.0 86.36% 181.90 02.363 01.593 00.823
JFKSLC 1990 25338 189.67 150.0 89.38% 169.52 03.298 01.066 -01.167
BOSPDX 2537 18312 216.67 150.0 87.83% 190.29 -07.878 -06.601 -05.324
FLLLAS 2173 23407 195.51 150.0 86.21% 168.56 -08.349 -09.408 -10.466
JFKOAK 2576 21914 206.17 150.0 90.74% 187.08 -13.366 -11.838 -10.311
JFKPDX 2454 23601 203.85 150.0 87.41% 178.19 -15.131 -14.386 -13.642
FLLSAN 2269 23797 190.63 150.0 88.14% 168.01 -14.506 -14.948 -15.391
MCOSLC 1931 23638 173.21 150.0 86.59% 149.97 -12.806 -15.417 -18.028
JFKRNO 2411 17394 205.41 150.0 83.42% 171.36 -19.449 -18.981 -18.512
FLLLGB 2327 23908 190.98 150.0 87.10% 166.33 -19.573 -19.644 -19.714
FLLSLC 2084 23253 173.60 150.0 86.12% 149.51 -22.202 -23.831 -25.460
MCOLAX 2218 25174 168.43 150.0 92.72% 156.17 -23.367 -24.137 -24.907
BOSSLC 2105 24750 171.73 150.0 86.84% 149.13 -23.808 -25.303 -26.797

At the bottom, it's not much a surprise that SLC flights are the worst performing ones. Especially how bad BOS-SLC was this quarter (normally it's not this terrible). MCO-LAX is a bloodbath that hopefully will ease now that AS and F9 have exited the market. I expect that to improve since they've reduced it to 4 per week. FLL-LGB is gone and replaced by FLL-PHX.

JFK-RNO is the clear weak link here out of JFK that performs terribly. Even PDX, which is pretty weak due to some horrible flight times, does better. I can't see RNO lasting much longer in the B6 network. They constantly do pretty well on these JFK to west coast flights, seems like they can pick something better than RNO.

FLL transcons look pretty bad.

There is a part of me that thinks when the A 220s arrive they should do one stop Transcons to grow the middle America market. FLL-MEM-SEA-FLL and BOS-MEM-California Airport--MEM-BOS for example. There are dozens to be had. The A220 has the ability to bridge the gap between east and west with having to establish a hub, increase feed to Caribbean/South America flights and feed Potential TATL flights.

After adding BOS-SMF into the equation. It looks to be another solid transcon market for them.

rasmdad420 wrote:

Can you explain what 50 Base, 65 Base, and 80 Base mean? This is interesting info, thanks.

I will try to explain. Just looking at yield favors longer flights and just looking at PRASM favors shorter flights. The idea is to assume some fixed base yield for a flight of 0 distance and then get the average yield per mile for this list of flights. So I got yield per mile based on assuming $50, $65 and $80 as the fixed base yield for 0 distance flight. This allows me to just compare flights of different distances against each other.

for example, let's say we have a 2000 mile flight and the base yield is $65 and yield per mile after that is $0.05 based on the average of all the flights in this list. Then expected yield would be 65 + 2000 * 0.05 = $165. If it actually gets a yield higher than that (let's say $180), then it's doing well compared to the other flights. That's basically how I got the numbers in those base columns. Just basically some normalization on the yield based on distance.

Obviously a lot of this is elementary. The fixed cost for flights out of FLL will be a lot lower than JFK due to the lower airport cost and possibly shorter wait on the runway and probably less required padding of flight times. But as a whole, it gives me a chance to compare flights of different distances to each other. I'm sure airlines have much better ways of comparison than this.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

There is a part of me that thinks when the A 220s arrive they should do one stop Transcons to grow the middle America market. FLL-MEM-SEA-FLL and BOS-MEM-California Airport--MEM-BOS for example. There are dozens to be had. The A220 has the ability to bridge the gap between east and west with having to establish a hub, increase feed to Caribbean/South America flights and feed Potential TATL flights.

not sure they need to do one-stop transcons. I tend to think A220 would work pretty well stand along on flights like BOS/FLL-MEM. Although I do agree that flights like FLL-SAN/LAS/PHX and even SMF would be better served on A220 vs A320.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Another look at Q2 data. This time for non-mint transcons. Since different flights have different distances. It's not easy to compare yield or PRASM to each other. So I did 3 tests here. One assuming $50 as base yield needed, one $65 and one for $85. the idea is every flight has a minimum cost needed for airport charges, taxes, crew cost and such. Everything on top of that like fuel cost is distance related. So I used these 3 different numbers to basically try to normalize the distance factor and compare all the flights relative to each other.

I think the results are not too surprising. I have this sorted based on 65 Base. JFK-BUR is consistently one of their top flights and same with JFK-SMF. PSP does really well in the peak season of March and April, so the numbers are high here. JFK-PHX is also always ones of their highest performing ones. BOS-SJC did better this quarter than a lot of recent quarters. JFK-LGB is also always quite high performing (helps to have a daytime flight). On SMF, I wonder if they will extend BOS-SMF a little more and maybe even do a seasonal FLL-SMF flight.

CityPair Dist Board NSFare SeatPerFlight LF Yield 50Base 65Base 80Base
JFKSMF 2521 28031 242.58 166.7 93.44% 226.66 29.426 30.601 31.775
JFKBUR 2465 23750 239.51 150.0 92.05% 220.48 26.517 27.332 28.147
BOSSJC 2689 20365 264.58 150.0 87.03% 230.26 23.215 25.467 27.719
JFKPSP 2378 7831 248.26 150.0 85.58% 212.47 23.588 23.845 24.102
JFKPHX 2153 23800 226.63 150.0 88.15% 199.77 24.029 22.842 21.655
JFKLGB 2465 49083 237.44 150.0 90.64% 215.22 21.257 22.072 22.887
BOSPHX 2300 24850 217.49 150.0 90.53% 196.89 12.563 12.320 12.076
JFKSJC 2569 24612 223.17 150.0 93.76% 209.25 09.213 10.695 12.178
BOSLGB 2602 24282 226.26 150.0 91.46% 206.93 04.966 06.660 08.354
BUFLAX 2218 22023 210.62 150.0 86.36% 181.90 02.363 01.593 00.823
JFKSLC 1990 25338 189.67 150.0 89.38% 169.52 03.298 01.066 -01.167
BOSPDX 2537 18312 216.67 150.0 87.83% 190.29 -07.878 -06.601 -05.324
FLLLAS 2173 23407 195.51 150.0 86.21% 168.56 -08.349 -09.408 -10.466
JFKOAK 2576 21914 206.17 150.0 90.74% 187.08 -13.366 -11.838 -10.311
JFKPDX 2454 23601 203.85 150.0 87.41% 178.19 -15.131 -14.386 -13.642
FLLSAN 2269 23797 190.63 150.0 88.14% 168.01 -14.506 -14.948 -15.391
MCOSLC 1931 23638 173.21 150.0 86.59% 149.97 -12.806 -15.417 -18.028
JFKRNO 2411 17394 205.41 150.0 83.42% 171.36 -19.449 -18.981 -18.512
FLLLGB 2327 23908 190.98 150.0 87.10% 166.33 -19.573 -19.644 -19.714
FLLSLC 2084 23253 173.60 150.0 86.12% 149.51 -22.202 -23.831 -25.460
MCOLAX 2218 25174 168.43 150.0 92.72% 156.17 -23.367 -24.137 -24.907
BOSSLC 2105 24750 171.73 150.0 86.84% 149.13 -23.808 -25.303 -26.797

At the bottom, it's not much a surprise that SLC flights are the worst performing ones. Especially how bad BOS-SLC was this quarter (normally it's not this terrible). MCO-LAX is a bloodbath that hopefully will ease now that AS and F9 have exited the market. I expect that to improve since they've reduced it to 4 per week. FLL-LGB is gone and replaced by FLL-PHX.

JFK-RNO is the clear weak link here out of JFK that performs terribly. Even PDX, which is pretty weak due to some horrible flight times, does better. I can't see RNO lasting much longer in the B6 network. They constantly do pretty well on these JFK to west coast flights, seems like they can pick something better than RNO.

FLL transcons look pretty bad.

There is a part of me that thinks when the A 220s arrive they should do one stop Transcons to grow the middle America market. FLL-MEM-SEA-FLL and BOS-MEM-California Airport--MEM-BOS for example. There are dozens to be had. The A220 has the ability to bridge the gap between east and west with having to establish a hub, increase feed to Caribbean/South America flights and feed Potential TATL flights.

I'm not sure B6 has the west coast presence to make that work.

So is PDX-BOS a no-go for 2019 then? Their only other summer seasonal transcon out of BOS was SMF, and that one is loaded into the 2019 schedule.

Also, SEA-ANC was loaded into the schedule, while PDX-ANC was not. Is that one gone too?

FA9295 wrote:

So is PDX-BOS a no-go for 2019 then? Their only other summer seasonal transcon out of BOS was SMF, and that one is loaded into the 2019 schedule.

Also, SEA-ANC was loaded into the schedule, while PDX-ANC was not. Is that one gone too?

They also do BOS-OAK; not currently loaded as of schedule end June 12.

It's possible they will start both later this year or maybe they will load it in the next schedule release. No indication that they've actually canceled it. My guess is PDX-ANC is gone.

tphuang wrote:

At the bottom, it's not much a surprise that SLC flights are the worst performing ones. Especially how bad BOS-SLC was this quarter (normally it's not this terrible).

As many know, DL fights B6 hard at their hubs. When B6 added SLC-MCO, DL increased their frequency from 2X to 3X daily virtually the next day. The same when B6 started SLC-BOS. DL is now using a 76W for one of their SLC-MCO dailies this winter and just posted a 76W for SLC-BOS starting next summer. They know how to make it hurt.

I have seen a lot of "Average Fare", "Non-stop Fare", and PRASM info in this thread, but I was wondering if one can get info on the price of a particular seat type in a particular market. For example: how much on average does B6 charge for a EMS seat BOS-SFO, or how much on average does B6 charge for a Mint seat LAX-JFK?

When B6 pulls out of IAD will they add DCA-JFK

Dieuwer wrote:

I have seen a lot of "Average Fare", "Non-stop Fare", and PRASM info in this thread, but I was wondering if one can get info on the price of a particular seat type in a particular market. For example: how much on average does B6 charge for a EMS seat BOS-SFO, or how much on average does B6 charge for a Mint seat LAX-JFK?

Not sure what you mean by EMS but average fare and PRASM are the best metrics the public has access to, airlines don’t disclose data at the cabin level and the few companies that may have access to enough searches to be significant (google, Expedia, Priceline etc) also hold that information as proprietary.. the best you can get is occasional data points from earnings calls where execs will site premium revenue numbers at the system level and when folks are willing to go run a bunch of one way searches on their own.

HPAEAA wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

I have seen a lot of "Average Fare", "Non-stop Fare", and PRASM info in this thread, but I was wondering if one can get info on the price of a particular seat type in a particular market. For example: how much on average does B6 charge for a EMS seat BOS-SFO, or how much on average does B6 charge for a Mint seat LAX-JFK?

Not sure what you mean by EMS but average fare and PRASM are the best metrics the public has access to, airlines don’t disclose data at the cabin level and the few companies that may have access to enough searches to be significant (google, Expedia, Priceline etc) also hold that information as proprietary.. the best you can get is occasional data points from earnings calls where execs will site premium revenue numbers at the system level and when folks are willing to go run a bunch of one way searches on their own.

EMS = "Even More (legroom) Seat".
Regarding cabin data, I guess I should feel vindicated that I started to construct my own mini database regarding fares for particular seats in particular markets...

Dieuwer wrote:

I have seen a lot of "Average Fare", "Non-stop Fare", and PRASM info in this thread, but I was wondering if one can get info on the price of a particular seat type in a particular market. For example: how much on average does B6 charge for a EMS seat BOS-SFO, or how much on average does B6 charge for a Mint seat LAX-JFK?

I don't think so. I just looked through the fields that are available on BTS website and there really isn't anyway to differentiate between fares, which is what would be needed to differentiate between mint, EMS and coach seats.

AvgFare I typical list is the average fare (excluding award ticket) of all the itinerary between the city pairs including direct and ones involving conneciton. NSFare or AvgNSFare is just for the direct itineraries. That's the one I use in calculating yield since connection fares don't really measure the direct performance of a route.

tphuang wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

I have seen a lot of "Average Fare", "Non-stop Fare", and PRASM info in this thread, but I was wondering if one can get info on the price of a particular seat type in a particular market. For example: how much on average does B6 charge for a EMS seat BOS-SFO, or how much on average does B6 charge for a Mint seat LAX-JFK?

I don't think so. I just looked through the fields that are available on BTS website and there really isn't anyway to differentiate between fares, which is what would be needed to differentiate between mint, EMS and coach seats.

AvgFare I typical list is the average fare (excluding award ticket) of all the itinerary between the city pairs including direct and ones involving conneciton. NSFare or AvgNSFare is just for the direct itineraries. That's the one I use in calculating yield since connection fares don't really measure the direct performance of a route.

Doesn't that miss quite a bit though? That connection money can be quite important. Hub to large city could have a lot of competition and competitive fares, but small city to hub to large city can often be quite expensive. I believe DL makes quite a bit of money like this connecting people in the SE and upper Midwest.

cledaybuck wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

I have seen a lot of "Average Fare", "Non-stop Fare", and PRASM info in this thread, but I was wondering if one can get info on the price of a particular seat type in a particular market. For example: how much on average does B6 charge for a EMS seat BOS-SFO, or how much on average does B6 charge for a Mint seat LAX-JFK?

I don't think so. I just looked through the fields that are available on BTS website and there really isn't anyway to differentiate between fares, which is what would be needed to differentiate between mint, EMS and coach seats.

AvgFare I typical list is the average fare (excluding award ticket) of all the itinerary between the city pairs including direct and ones involving conneciton. NSFare or AvgNSFare is just for the direct itineraries. That's the one I use in calculating yield since connection fares don't really measure the direct performance of a route.

Doesn't that miss quite a bit though? That connection money can be quite important. Hub to large city could have a lot of competition and competitive fares, but small city to hub to large city can often be quite expensive. I believe DL makes quite a bit of money like this connecting people in the SE and upper Midwest.

A couple of things. This is the most that's available.

Apart from that, connection fares would affect fortress hubs a lot more than places like JFK/BOS/FLL which are mostly O&D stations which are where most of my numbers come from. You will see the routes that mostly get affected by connection fares are routes like BOS-ATL for DL, which probably fill at least half of the cabin with connection traffic.

Based on DL avg connection fares on routes like BOS-MCO/JAX/RSW/TPA, which all go through ATL, I just don't see how connection traffic can be more profitable than O&D traffic, since these major routes are vast majority of the connection routes. They may get higher margined traffic on small town to ATL to BOS, but that's a smaller proportion of the traffic.

Give you some examples. On BOS-AUS, 80% of fare itineraries for DL is direct. The avg non-stop fare is $210 and avg connection fare is $282. Now, DL gets avg fare of $209 on ATL-AUS and $148 on BOS-ATL. Which is over $350 in total and have higher cost of CPE and connecting bags and such. If the connection is over DTW, then this will look even worse.

On BOS-MCO/FLL/TPA, about 90% of DL fares itineraries are direct. The avg connection fares is about $20 to $40 higher than non-stop. Clearly, the sum of DL's direct fares on ATL-BOS and ATL-MCO/FLL/TPA, will be higher than that. And worse still, a lot of times people pick connection itineraries in the last minute when non-stop fares are not available or too high. I don't see how that could be higher margined traffic than last minute direct fares.

tphuang wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I don't think so. I just looked through the fields that are available on BTS website and there really isn't anyway to differentiate between fares, which is what would be needed to differentiate between mint, EMS and coach seats.

AvgFare I typical list is the average fare (excluding award ticket) of all the itinerary between the city pairs including direct and ones involving conneciton. NSFare or AvgNSFare is just for the direct itineraries. That's the one I use in calculating yield since connection fares don't really measure the direct performance of a route.

Doesn't that miss quite a bit though? That connection money can be quite important. Hub to large city could have a lot of competition and competitive fares, but small city to hub to large city can often be quite expensive. I believe DL makes quite a bit of money like this connecting people in the SE and upper Midwest.

A couple of things. This is the most that's available.

Apart from that, connection fares would affect fortress hubs a lot more than places like JFK/BOS/FLL which are mostly O&D stations which are where most of my numbers come from. You will see the routes that mostly get affected by connection fares are routes like BOS-ATL for DL, which probably fill at least half of the cabin with connection traffic.

Based on DL avg connection fares on routes like BOS-MCO/JAX/RSW/TPA, which all go through ATL, I just don't see how connection traffic can be more profitable than O&D traffic, since these major routes are vast majority of the connection routes. They may get higher margined traffic on small town to ATL to BOS, but that's a smaller proportion of the traffic.

Give you some examples. On BOS-AUS, 80% of fare itineraries for DL is direct. The avg non-stop fare is $210 and avg connection fare is $282. Now, DL gets avg fare of $209 on ATL-AUS and $148 on BOS-ATL. Which is over $350 in total and have higher cost of CPE and connecting bags and such. If the connection is over DTW, then this will look even worse.

On BOS-MCO/FLL/TPA, about 90% of DL fares itineraries are direct. The avg connection fares is about $20 to $40 higher than non-stop. Clearly, the sum of DL's direct fares on ATL-BOS and ATL-MCO/FLL/TPA, will be higher than that. And worse still, a lot of times people pick connection itineraries in the last minute when non-stop fares are not available or too high. I don't see how that could be higher margined traffic than last minute direct fares.

I agree it seems counter intuitive, but Kirby claimed connecting traffic is more profitable (at least for UA) now. I imagine all that small town high margin traffic can add up, especially over a hub the size of ATL.

I bet that connection fares vs non-stop fares are extremely sensitive to seasonal trends and thus demand.
During low demand times, I can see how non-stop fares are cheaper than connection fares, but during high demand times like public holidays, non-stop fares are definitely priced higher than connection fares.

Here's a B6 example of a small city-hub-large city connection route using a BTV-SFO itinerary in May. I looked up the current fare for the whole trip as well as the individual fares for BTV-JFK and for JFK-SFO.

BTV-SFO $267 average each way
BTV-JFK $118 average each way
JFK-SFO $173 average each way

So on the surface at least the connecting fare seems pretty equitable.

It's interesting how close the fares are for the two routes considering the extreme difference in distance. However I did try the same exercise on some dates in December and the fares were more proportional to the distance, so that might be more typical.

I have to wonder if B6 might actually jump into the wide-body market on busy routes. This is where the B789 could work on routes that are either too busy for a narrow-body (like JFK-LGW or FLL-GRU) or where the distance is too long with an acceptable alternate (i.e., JFK-TLV). Repositioning flights on each would be revenue flights on FLL-JFK (up-gauged from 200-seat A321s)...and routes where I could see such working are: JFK-FLL-GRU (FLL-VCP and other Brazil destinations could get the A321LR and GRU is the busiest one that's slot-restricted), JFK-LGW, BOS-LGW, JFK-LIS, and JFK-TLV. These destinations would likely need 10 wide-body frames to work (all being once daily except for JFK-LGW being double daily). Key here is that on a B789, B6 could expand Mint, which is as good as the J offerings on most other carriers).

The reason why I say GRU and LIS: partners in Europe whose US outstations already are serviced by B6, and LGW and TLV could survive on O&D. Configuration could be J32 (1-2-1)-W28 (2-3-2)-Y+27 (3-3-3)-Y198 (3-3-3)...same seat count as AA but with an inch more of seat pitch in Y+ and Y, and 3 more seats than LY but more room than there. J would be fully lie flat, W would be 38"/19", Y+ would be 36"/17.3", and Y would be 32"/17.3". With this, B6 could definitely compete with DY which would have a harder time competing, as DY relies on price and fare unbundling, while B6 can count on J traffic.

Looks like PDX BOS is gone thru mid June at least.

If they start it, it will be a short season.

They must really be taking a bath to cut a route out of Boston

jfklganyc wrote:

Looks like PDX BOS is gone thru mid June at least.

If they start it, it will be a short season.

They must really be taking a bath to cut a route out of Boston

Anecdotally, I was looking for a quick 4 day West Coast trip from BOS for the weekend before 4th of July to city I never visited (SEA SFO PDX SAN). Honestly it was the cheapest to fly to SFO (350 roundtrip versus 550 plus for the others). Something happened exactly a month out - B6 cut the 3rd SAN flight and then fares to PDX and SEA dropped like like a rock and after finding a good airbnb and learning how easy it was to get around Portland - I jumped on a BOS-PDX roundtrip for $450. Flights both ways were 100% full.

If DL smells weakness they should add it seasonally - a nice slap in the face to both of their enemies.

On the flipside, the VFR potential has to grow from PDX every year since about 500-600 people a week move there.

jfklganyc wrote:

Looks like PDX BOS is gone thru mid June at least.

If they start it, it will be a short season.

They must really be taking a bath to cut a route out of Boston

JetBlue will be out of Portland within a few months. They’re down to 1x/day to LGB and only seasonal to JFK.

jbpdx wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

Looks like PDX BOS is gone thru mid June at least.

If they start it, it will be a short season.

They must really be taking a bath to cut a route out of Boston

JetBlue will be out of Portland within a few months. They’re down to 1x/day to LGB and only seasonal to JFK.

And then PDX flights will be codeshared with ALK until the merger.

adamh8297 wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

Looks like PDX BOS is gone thru mid June at least.

If they start it, it will be a short season.

They must really be taking a bath to cut a route out of Boston

Anecdotally, I was looking for a quick 4 day West Coast trip from BOS for the weekend before 4th of July to city I never visited (SEA SFO PDX SAN). Honestly it was the cheapest to fly to SFO (350 roundtrip versus 550 plus for the others). Something happened exactly a month out - B6 cut the 3rd SAN flight and then fares to PDX and SEA dropped like like a rock and after finding a good airbnb and learning how easy it was to get around Portland - I jumped on a BOS-PDX roundtrip for $450. Flights both ways were 100% full.

If DL smells weakness they should add it seasonally - a nice slap in the face to both of their enemies.

On the flipside, the VFR potential has to grow from PDX every year since about 500-600 people a week move there.

I've actually posted the numbers on this thread. All transcon markets out of BOS is a bloodbath due to B6 dumping so much premium capacity on there. This is all part of JetBlue's strategy to defend its turf.

A third daily mint on BOS-SAN never made sense when they already dominate the market and with no DL presence. So they flipped it to BOS-SEA, which is the ultimate competitive bloodbath.

It should be obvious how tough B6 has it made for DL in the transcon market out of BOS when you consider that they gave up D1 out of SFO after making a lot of noise about entering the market, down to once daily to SEA in winter time (on a Hub to Hub route) and stuck at 2 daily to LAX (another hub to hub route). The reason that B6 has a hard time at PDX is due to AS dominance there + lack of year round service. DL would face an even larger issue entering that market.

jbpdx wrote:

JetBlue will be out of Portland within a few months. They’re down to 1x/day to LGB and only seasonal to JFK.

I would wait for their next schedule extension before commenting on this. If you look at the number i posted earlier, PDX is actually not at the bottom of routes of JFK or BOS. Based on numbers, they will cut stations like RNO, ABQ and OAK before PDX.

fyi, they are not seasonal to JFK. They are down to sub daily in slow season out of JFK. They've done the same cuts to several transcon routes as part of their high fuel price adjustments.

JFK PDX has never been seasonal.

JBU 6140 just flew FLL-SRQ......anyone know why?

727LOVER wrote:

JBU 6140 just flew FLL-SRQ......anyone know why?

Appears to be a repo to fly 940.

tphuang wrote:

DL would face an even larger issue entering that market.

I wouldn't necessarily say that, although you would know yields better than most of us on here...

Anyhow, DL has been quite ambitious at PDX, even despite the large AS presence. I think if DL added a summer seasonal PDX-BOS flight, it would probably do just fine, and would maybe force AS to think twice about continuing their second daily flight on the route.

As with many markets in the U.S., mid-June through mid-September is when PDX sees the most travelers. And since PDX has a very small business community, a lot of flights are not successful there through the winter months, and are subsequently cut and/or reduced in frequencies; hence why B6's PDX-JFK flight is reduced from daily to 4x weekly during the winter months.

tphuang wrote:

I would wait for their next schedule extension before commenting on this. If you look at the number i posted earlier, PDX is actually not at the bottom of routes of JFK or BOS. Based on numbers, they will cut stations like RNO, ABQ and OAK before PDX.

JFK-OAK is higher loads at higher fares than JFK-PDX, no?

Apart from NYC (EWR and JFK), is there an airport/air market that has as much competition to SEA/SFO/LAX/SAN as Boston? UA does well on BOS-SFO - higher fares and high load factors. They must have some good contracts with corporate clients - there's a TON of business traffic that flies between Boston and San Francisco.

B752OS wrote:

Apart from NYC (EWR and JFK), is there an airport/air market that has as much competition to SEA/SFO/LAX/SAN as Boston? UA does well on BOS-SFO - higher fares and high load factors. They must have some good contracts with corporate clients - there's a TON of business traffic that flies between Boston and San Francisco.

numbers would show that BOS is a more competitive market than NYC to those markets. Most other east coast cities are dominated by an airline.

JFK-OAK is higher loads at higher fares than JFK-PDX, no?

they do better on LGB-PDX than LGB-OAK. And also, BOS-PDX in summer time is normally profitable.

impilot wrote:

727LOVER wrote:

JBU 6140 just flew FLL-SRQ......anyone know why?

Appears to be a repo to fly 940.

Except that the plane is fully owned by JetBlue. For the Airbus planes, only some of the 500s, 970, and 972 are leased. Flightradar24 is missing a flight, but the plane then ferried to Boston.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

impilot wrote:

727LOVER wrote:

JBU 6140 just flew FLL-SRQ......anyone know why?

Appears to be a repo to fly 940.

Except that the plane is fully owned by JetBlue. For the Airbus planes, only some of the 500s, 970, and 972 are leased. Flightradar24 is missing a flight, but the plane then ferried to Boston.

Repo, as in it repositioned a crew and metal from FLL, to fly operational flight 940 (and its pax), because the original plane and crew couldn’t.

tphuang wrote:

JFK-OAK is higher loads at higher fares than JFK-PDX, no?

they do better on LGB-PDX than LGB-OAK. And also, BOS-PDX in summer time is normally profitable.

No competition on LGB-PDX while they're going up against WN on LGB-OAK. Maybe they'll leave JFK-OAK but not because they're doing worse than they are on JFK-PDX.

I thought I would share this link since JetBlue is mentioned. Take it as you will (with a grain of salt if you wish) but I thought this needed to be posted here. Plus, who doesn't love a good little conversation.

https://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/in ... -expansion

"Executive director Mario Rodriguez says the airport will announce its ninth major airline by year's end. He won't say which one, but says it's probably the most obvious domestic airline missing from Indy. The largest such airline is JetBlue, America's seventh-largest carrier."

Again, take it as you will but if this mystery airline is indeed JetBlue that would be great. If not then it is what it is.