FA9295 wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

A second daily flight JFK-DEN was just added for fall, not sure if its new though.

Doesn't surprise me. They've had that route on MINT for quite awhile now (the second flight also appears to be on MINT as well), so it must be doing pretty well.

Since when do they offer MINT on JFK-DEN? I don't see it if I try to book.

evank516 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

A second daily flight JFK-DEN was just added for fall, not sure if its new though.

Doesn't surprise me. They've had that route on MINT for quite awhile now (the second flight also appears to be on MINT as well), so it must be doing pretty well.

Since when do they offer MINT on JFK-DEN? I don't see it if I try to book.

Oh, I guess you're right. I saw that the routes were being operated by the Airbus A321 and automatically figured that they were MINT routes. My bad.

FA9295 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

Doesn't surprise me. They've had that route on MINT for quite awhile now (the second flight also appears to be on MINT as well), so it must be doing pretty well.

Since when do they offer MINT on JFK-DEN? I don't see it if I try to book.

Oh, I guess you're right. I saw that the routes were being operated by the Airbus A321 and automatically figured that they were MINT routes. My bad.

I gotcha. I checked August and it shows 1x A320 and 1X A321. The A321 is the all core config, which is still pretty comfy in my opinion.

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

There are many routes that I think B6 should add out of JFK if slot wasn't an issue and DFW happens to be one of them.

I think they can add DFW-FLL, but it would have to survive mostly on connections and likely loose money.

The within perimeter routes that I think they can add out of JFK if slot isn't an issue and if they had the aircraft for them.
CLE, BDL, RIC, DTW, MSP, STL, IND, BNA, MEM, DFW

JFK-RIC was done in the past. I think they axed that in this decade. JFK-BNA was done the first time B6 was in Nashville, but I think that will come back in the future. JFK-DFW seems like a good add too especially if they make JFK-HOU work.

It’s funny how there are much more demand out of jfk to southeastern cities like rdu clt atl msy than hou and Dallas despite the latter being much larger cities. They do well enough on jfk to Houston to make money despite their minimal presence there.

I think the main issue is they only have so many well timed slots and Caribbean flights are far more profitable than these within perimeter flights. But if slot goes away, bna should be a no brainer given their success at rdu and clt and chs and probably atl. And I would imagine they can break even on two daily flight each to Dallas and Houston.

As for Denver, I think they are just extending summer schedule out 2 more months. It looks like the second slc flight starts in December. They are pretty maxed out on slot usage in summer vacation time, but the rest of the year like September and October have some available slots. And the usage of a321 allow them to compete with lower yield against legacy stronghold like den and slc. Jfk unfortunately still yields significantly less to central of the country than lga.

tphuang wrote:

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

There are many routes that I think B6 should add out of JFK if slot wasn't an issue and DFW happens to be one of them.

I think they can add DFW-FLL, but it would have to survive mostly on connections and likely loose money.

The within perimeter routes that I think they can add out of JFK if slot isn't an issue and if they had the aircraft for them.
CLE, BDL, RIC, DTW, MSP, STL, IND, BNA, MEM, DFW

JFK-RIC was done in the past. I think they axed that in this decade. JFK-BNA was done the first time B6 was in Nashville, but I think that will come back in the future. JFK-DFW seems like a good add too especially if they make JFK-HOU work.

It’s funny how there are much more demand out of jfk to southeastern cities like rdu clt atl msy than hou and Dallas despite the latter being much larger cities. They do well enough on jfk to Houston to make money despite their minimal presence there.

I think the main issue is they only have so many well timed slots and Caribbean flights are far more profitable than these within perimeter flights. But if slot goes away, bna should be a no brainer given their success at rdu and clt and chs and probably atl. And I would imagine they can break even on two daily flight each to Dallas and Houston.

As for Denver, I think they are just extending summer schedule out 2 more months. It looks like the second slc flight starts in December. They are pretty maxed out on slot usage in summer vacation time, but the rest of the year like September and October have some available slots. And the usage of a321 allow them to compete with lower yield against legacy stronghold like den and slc. Jfk unfortunately still yields significantly less to central of the country than lga.

Which is unfortunate, but considering the proximity of LGA and many of those cities being within the perimeter, it isn't surprising with LGA being the preferred airport for business travelers due to it's proximity to Manhattan. The upside to B6 starting JFK-DFW is less competition from AA and DL. Each only has 1-2 daily flights on JFK-DFW so B6 could be somewhat even despite DL and AA's other flights out of LaGuardia. With B6's lower operating costs though, it may work out for them anyway.

One city that I would really hope for JetBlue to add is a flight to STL. JFK-STL at least.

What about them adding ORF to the network? ORF-BOS/FLL

Any word on how B6 is performing on the new ATL - JFK, MCO and FLL flights? All are high o&d with a healthy mix of business and VFR.

n2dru wrote:

Any word on how B6 is performing on the new ATL - JFK, MCO and FLL flights? All are high o&d with a healthy mix of business and VFR.

We won't know for a while from public sources. I'd be shocked if JFK doesn't do well since B6 really does well on these twice a day flights to the South. And the fares I see are higher than to BOS/MCO/FLL. FLL seems to rely a lot on connection traffic to Caribbean. The one I think is most likely to fail is MCO. I'd think they need at least twice a day to succeed.

tphuang wrote:

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

There are many routes that I think B6 should add out of JFK if slot wasn't an issue and DFW happens to be one of them.

I think they can add DFW-FLL, but it would have to survive mostly on connections and likely loose money.

The within perimeter routes that I think they can add out of JFK if slot isn't an issue and if they had the aircraft for them.
CLE, BDL, RIC, DTW, MSP, STL, IND, BNA, MEM, DFW

JFK-RIC was done in the past. I think they axed that in this decade. JFK-BNA was done the first time B6 was in Nashville, but I think that will come back in the future. JFK-DFW seems like a good add too especially if they make JFK-HOU work.

It’s funny how there are much more demand out of jfk to southeastern cities like rdu clt atl msy than hou and Dallas despite the latter being much larger cities. They do well enough on jfk to Houston to make money despite their minimal presence there.

I think the main issue is they only have so many well timed slots and Caribbean flights are far more profitable than these within perimeter flights. But if slot goes away, bna should be a no brainer given their success at rdu and clt and chs and probably atl. And I would imagine they can break even on two daily flight each to Dallas and Houston.

As for Denver, I think they are just extending summer schedule out 2 more months. It looks like the second slc flight starts in December. They are pretty maxed out on slot usage in summer vacation time, but the rest of the year like September and October have some available slots. And the usage of a321 allow them to compete with lower yield against legacy stronghold like den and slc. Jfk unfortunately still yields significantly less to central of the country than lga.

I'm fairly certain B6 will get into JFK-BNA sooner rather than later. JFK-ATL appears to be off to a very strong start (we won't know for awhile, but fares appear to be significantly higher if looking just a few days out or a month out. It wouldn't surprise me especially given their profitable JFK-RDU/CLT/CHS/SAV flights that BNA eventually gets added.

Of note is all the additional flying B6 is bringing to JFK later this year. ONT, second BUR/SLC/DEN, more Island capacity compared to last year, longer PSP season. Wouldn't be surprised to see more markets converted to Mint.

MHT seems like a city that would get a mention . In between BOS and BTV i am sure the flyers in the area are quite familiar with Jetblue and most have been on it before. Should be an easy start minus Southwests large presence.

A similar airport was ALB, the public was basically begging for B6 to move in. Everyone in ALB knew B6 and they serve every airports in every direction. NYC, SWF, BDL, BTV, SYR

SumChristianus wrote:

What do you know/think/hope for B6 and its future network development?

Will they enter Midwest cities such as IND, CMH, STL, MKE, etc.?

With MSP gone, IND, CMH, STL, MKE, and MCI will probably be added in the next few years

Midwestindy wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

What do you know/think/hope for B6 and its future network development?

Will they enter Midwest cities such as IND, CMH, STL, MKE, etc.?

With MSP gone, IND, CMH, STL, MKE, and MCI will probably be added in the next few years

As much as I would like to see Jetblue fly to more Midwest Cities, people are going to probably wait a Looooong time until Jetblue has free aircraft that would warrant the Midwest service over other existing cities. For example, we know MSP has been on the radar for a while, but the demand for places in the DR and really having little to no competition, that still is the priority in the grand scheme of things. Thus MSP was rumored to had been delayed for service for years until they could really warrant it. Maybe th hurricanes helped push Jetblue to really pull the trigger on MSP. Those flights to the DR make a ton of money for Jetblue and when the DR comes calling asking for more flights, Jetblue answers.

Sadly would probably see KEF/DUB/CDG/LON before CMH/IND/MKE

FlyinRabbit88 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

What do you know/think/hope for B6 and its future network development?

Will they enter Midwest cities such as IND, CMH, STL, MKE, etc.?

With MSP gone, IND, CMH, STL, MKE, and MCI will probably be added in the next few years

As much as I would like to see Jetblue fly to more Midwest Cities, people are going to probably wait a Looooong time until Jetblue has free aircraft that would warrant the Midwest service over other existing cities. For example, we know MSP has been on the radar for a while, but the demand for places in the DR and really having little to no competition, that still is the priority in the grand scheme of things. Thus MSP was rumored to had been delayed for service for years until they could really warrant it. Maybe th hurricanes helped push Jetblue to really pull the trigger on MSP. Those flights to the DR make a ton of money for Jetblue and when the DR comes calling asking for more flights, Jetblue answers.

B6 did previously serve CMH, but B6 pulled out of CMH 10 years ago. WN also already serves BOS nonstop from IND, CMH, STL, MKE, and MCI, and WN also has over 50% market share at STL and MCI. However, there might be room for B6 to add BOS-STL nonstop service if DL does not add BOS-STL nonstop service since WN is currently the only airline to serve STL nonstop from BOS.

Question about BOS-SEA. I noticed B6 has one super-early morning flight and two very late-night flights to SEA.
Any reason for that? Seems strange to me, especially on weekends. I would think a third flight in the middle of the day would make more sense than the current bifurcated schedule.

FlyinRabbit88 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

What do you know/think/hope for B6 and its future network development?

Will they enter Midwest cities such as IND, CMH, STL, MKE, etc.?

With MSP gone, IND, CMH, STL, MKE, and MCI will probably be added in the next few years

As much as I would like to see Jetblue fly to more Midwest Cities, people are going to probably wait a Looooong time until Jetblue has free aircraft that would warrant the Midwest service over other existing cities. For example, we know MSP has been on the radar for a while, but the demand for places in the DR and really having little to no competition, that still is the priority in the grand scheme of things. Thus MSP was rumored to had been delayed for service for years until they could really warrant it. Maybe th hurricanes helped push Jetblue to really pull the trigger on MSP. Those flights to the DR make a ton of money for Jetblue and when the DR comes calling asking for more flights, Jetblue answers.

Sadly would probably see KEF/DUB/CDG/LON before CMH/IND/MKE

I heard back in February that Marty St.George said IND was "high on the list for future route additions"

I have also heard that "IND is their next target city in the Midwest"

I think the not so secret problem is not a/c, but the fact that B6 doesn't have a lot of confidence in their E190s vs the E175 or 737 due to its high CASM (Hence the reason MSP-BOS is on the A320).

The E190 or the A320 of course could fly there but again, money talks and Jetblue tends to add frequencies to the DR vs opening/repopening to cities like in the Midwest. Hence why we are starting another DR flight EWR and FLL.

FlyinRabbit88 wrote:

The E190 or the A320 of course could fly there but again, money talks and Jetblue tends to add frequencies to the DR vs opening/repopening to cities like in the Midwest. Hence why we are starting another DR flight EWR and FLL.

You can only fly so many flights to the Caribbean before you inevitably have to eventually stop bleeding business pax to DL.

Midwestindy wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

What do you know/think/hope for B6 and its future network development?

Will they enter Midwest cities such as IND, CMH, STL, MKE, etc.?

With MSP gone, IND, CMH, STL, MKE, and MCI will probably be added in the next few years

The problem is, none of those are 3-carrier markets from BOS, and some of those really aren’t even two carrier markets. WN’s moves at BOS were strategic to block B6 from entering their bread and butter heartland

If you look at B6 entrance into strong WN stations.
BWI - they generate similar yields, quite amazing considering WN market share
BNA - similar and maybe slightly better yields.
HOU - worse yields, huge blood bath for both in a station where WN has 90+% market share.
Austin - better yields despite WN having close to 40% market share
Denver - worse yields, but I think this is more due to UA dominance.

So how would any of this scare them away from entering STL? Having said this, I still expect them to go into IND and one of CMH/CVG first, since they are competing more with DL right now.

RL757PVD wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

What do you know/think/hope for B6 and its future network development?

Will they enter Midwest cities such as IND, CMH, STL, MKE, etc.?

With MSP gone, IND, CMH, STL, MKE, and MCI will probably be added in the next few years

The problem is, none of those are 3-carrier markets from BOS, and some of those really aren’t even two carrier markets. WN’s moves at BOS were strategic to block B6 from entering their bread and butter heartland

Agreed. CMH-BOS doesn't seem to do that well for WN but it felt like them throwing the block.

Taking a look at some possible mint routes that have not been raised before. To do this, I looked at routes that are over the range of 2000 miles and can be operated by an A321NEO in mint config. I didn't look at A321LR since those are probably going to be deployed to Europe.

JFK-YVR - They have not entered any Canadian market. I think they do need to do that at some point from BOS. From JFK, the one that makes by far the most sense is YVR. Currently, the only year round daily competition is CX on 777. AC flies out of EWR with 787. DL offers summer service only. PR offers 4 day a week service on 777. O/W fares are generally high and R/T fares are in the 500 to 600 range. For business class, DL is at $1250 for R/T, but lie flat seats from CX is at over $5000. And AC lie flat is at $2800. PR is really cheap, but I don't see people picking them over mint. Even with the border taxes, B6 should be able to differentiate itself offering O/W Y fare of 250 to 300 along with J fares of $800. It would have product that's a little worse than CX in J, but similar or better in Y (especially if CX moves to 10 a row seating). And more importantly, it doesn't have to directly battle AC for Canada point of sale and there should be enough demand for an extra 159 seat per day.

BOS-YVR - This route the competition is AC with A319. This will be tougher since they will effectively double the capacity against AC's strength in Canada. But the fares are pretty high here at $2000-2500 R/T for J and $600 to 700 in Y. AC will have some feeds at its end, but so does B6 at BOS. AC also would not have as many feed into YVR-BOS as it would on YYZ/YUL-BOS. So I do think B6 can come in here with a better product at lower fare and win over good amount of traffic. They would have to beat DL/WS JV to the market, since I don't think this can support 3 carriers.

JFK-BOG - The main competition here is AV on A330 (twice a day) and UA out of EWR on 737. Cheapest R/T y fares is close to $700 and j fares is anywhere from $1200 R/T to $3000. Although normally, it's over $2000. Mint would be at least comparable to AV's J seating (which doesn't recline fully) if not better. And it will certainly be better than UA's standard recliner seat. There is not as much room to undercut AV here, but I do think there is enough premium demand to justify deploying a mint aircraft. It's not a pure leisure or VFR market like most places they fly to in the Caribbeans. B6 would probably be charging around $600 R/T in y based on fares to places like CTG/AUA/BGI/CUR and entry fares of around $1600 for J. Not a slam dunk to undercut AV, but I think they can do this successfully with a better product in Y/J + their strength out of JFK. Their new IFE + extended coverage of ViaSat in-flight wifi to all of Caribbean might become a product differentiator here.

JFK-PTY - The main competition here is CM with 4 daily service of 737s along with UA out of EWR with 2 daily 737s. At some point, B6 may choose to enter this route with the standard A320 from JFK/BOS/FLL, but they would really be able to differentiate themselves with mint. R/T y fares on CM are normally in the $700-800 range. R/T j fares are normally around $1900, although I saw some cases of $1200. I would imagine B6 would not need to undercut CM here in J class, but may need to enter with R/T y fare closer to $600 that it charges to other Caribbean locations. I see no reason why B6 can't come in here and do as well as it has done with places like BGI and AUA. As with BOG, the improved IFE + wifi could be a product differentiator here. Due to the leisure nature of passengers, it may make a lot more sense to enter with A320.

JFK-LIM - I'm not sure if A321NEO can actually make it, since it is a high altitude airport (but does not have to deal with North Atlantic wind). Since B6 already flies here from FLL, they would not need to open a new station. The only competition from NYC to Lima is LATAM on 767 or UA at EWR on 757. R/T y fares range from close to $700 to $2000 on Latam. R/T J fares in most cases are at least $3000 and can go up to $6000 in some cases. This really is a high fare route with limited competition. B6 can probably enter this route with $700 R/T y fare and $2500 R/T J fare and really clean up.

tphuang wrote:

I do wonder if the 4 new stations Marty St George talked about includes BZN/HDN. If they do not, then I think the 4 this year will be MSP, ONT, GEO and IND.

I'm also wondering if MSP, ONT, BZN, and HDN are the four. That'd be surprising if that were it.

Domestic LF is available now for February, this is mint routes from Jan and Feb of this year. March is supposed to be their best month, but the first 2 look good too.
JFKLAX
VX 79034 97459 81.09%
AA 109092 134125 81.34%
DL 171799 205563 83.57%
B6 150156 178239 84.24%
EWRLAX
VX 42061 53009 79.35%
UA 175498 195924 89.57%
JFKSFO
VX 62695 79876 78.49%
AA 41188 54264 75.90%
DL 103735 140931 73.61%
B6 83032 100806 82.37%
EWRSFO
VX 38890 48643 79.95%
UA 187767 209965 89.43%
BOSSFO
VX 25434 32178 79.04%
B6 64747 79800 81.14%
UA 76644 91444 83.82%
DL 12113 19520 62.05%
BOSLAX
VX 14054 17705 79.38%
AA 68559 93353 73.44%
DL 22300 29534 75.51%
UA 14955 19651 76.10%
B6 60089 68688 87.48%
FLLLAX
VX 38709 45001 86.02%
NK 15610 17215 90.68%
B6 31317 37206 84.17%
MIALAX
AA 157850 171795 91.88%
FLLSFO
VX 14336 17973 79.76%
B6 31548 37515 84.09%
UA 17910 22029 81.30%
MIASFO
AA 69385 82272 84.34%
UA 16851 19552 86.19%
JFKSAN
AA 14416 19840 72.66%
DL 37148 48325 76.87%
B6 29495 34344 85.88%
EWRSAN
AS 12353 19397 63.69%
UA 40207 51648 77.85%
BOSSAN
AS 14658 19584 74.85%
B6 30411 34821 87.34%
JFKSEA
AA 12103 18240 66.35%
B6 14363 17250 83.26%
AS 16718 20120 83.09%
DL 53143 60520 87.81%
EWRSEA
AS 38142 50377 75.71%
UA 35941 50888 70.63%
BOSSEA
B6 23131 28836 80.22%
DL 13602 18349 74.13%
AS 27842 34197 81.42%
JFKLAS
VX 14466 16848 85.86%
AA 30956 36742 84.25%
B6 52937 61070 86.68%
DL 77507 94197 82.28%
BOSLAS
DL 1944 2880 67.50%
NK 12585 16380 76.83%
B6 41260 50721 81.35%

Not all have been converted to mint route yet. But it's interesting to note some of these numbers. B6 actually had the highest LF on all the ex-JFK mint routes, which is quite abnormal (last year, they were consistently lower than DL/AA in most of them). FLL-LAX had really high LF. There is no reason they don't add additional capacity here over the winter time.

Also of note, AA on JFK-SEA, AS on EWR-SAN and DL on BOS-SFO are all really struggling.


Now, here comes the international numbers. We've gotten November. This includes July to November. First the ugly ones from Cuba and MEX.
JFKHAV
B6 22856 44450 51.42%
DL 21184 33049 64.10%
FLLHAV
WN 73924 102836 71.89%
B6 50161 81000 61.93%
MCOHAV
B6 18243 29500 61.84%
FLLHOG
B6 19913 29650 67.16%
FLLSNU
WN 13571 18733 72.44%
B6 18888 27300 69.19%
FLLCMW
B6 21944 30050 73.02%
FLLMEX
B6 43752 65850 66.44%
MCOMEX
B6 44204 66600 66.37%

Even though this includes the very slow months of Sep/Oct, those are atrocious LF for HAV. The insanity of more HAV flights. MEX looks to be off to a slow start.

CUN looks a lot better
JFKCUN
AA 47436 55391 85.64%
DL 80663 86336 93.43%
B6 111247 129418 85.96%
BOSCUN
AA 3267 3520 92.81%
DL 4778 5117 93.38%
B6 12248 15000 81.65%
FLLCUN
WN 35973 57486 62.58%
B6 43110 53600 80.43%
NK 58402 66673 87.59%
MCOCUN
F9 4643 8830 52.58%
B6 47383 56150 84.39%
DL 5527 5965 92.66%

some additional markets. Looks like VFR ones had good LF, but a leisure one like PLS and BDA did poorly. Makes sense given the time of the year.
JFKSTI
B6 245304 296912 82.62%
DL 130439 147526 88.42%
JFKSDQ
DL 148178 161605 91.69%
B6 249895 291180 85.82%
JFKPUJ
AA 14006 16480 84.99%
DL 63627 70424 90.35%
B6 107779 124200 86.78%
JFKKIN
N8 1231 1288 95.57%
B6 107653 125504 85.78%
JFKMBJ
B6 78428 88186 88.93%
DL 42505 46151 92.10%
JFKBGI
B6 95702 110566 86.56%
JFKPLS
B6 35924 54086 66.42%
DL 2555 2880 88.72%
JFKBDA
AA 55351 89152 62.09%
B6 49886 76768 64.98%
DL 29147 40121 72.65%
BOSBDA
DL 30645 43660 70.19%
B6 33805 45900 73.65%

south america, especially Columbia looks great. They should add JFK/BOS-BOG once they get A321NEO.
JFKCTG
B6 15169 16650 91.11%
FLLBOG
B6 38700 43650 88.66%
NK 47367 53460 88.60%
FLLMDE
B6 36424 41550 87.66%
NK 37782 41500 91.04%
FLLCTG
B6 27350 30250 90.41%
NK 24856 27514 90.34%
FLLLIM
B6 35607 42000 84.78%
NK 19418 22910 84.76%

Some of the competitive markets out of FLL/MCO. Looks like B6 still doing well given the new WN competition.
FLLSJO
WN 5912 7436 79.51%
B6 39419 44550 88.48%
NK 81890 93177 87.89%
FLLPAP
AA 73904 88149 83.84%
B6 93503 107550 86.94%
NK 37841 45786 82.65%
FLLNAS
WN 33484 42456 78.87%
B6 93665 116450 80.43%
FLLMBJ
WN 43938 50003 87.87%
B6 55748 64050 87.04%
NK 40509 46090 87.89%
MCOMBJ
WN 30377 34832 87.21%
B6 38725 44718 86.60%

How many average daily flights do they have from JFK & BOS?

Curious when the fleet review will come out now that it’s been announced the pilots have an AIP and the informational picket of LSC for May 17th was canceled. Curious the details of the AIP.

Looking at those numbers we can see that B6 can actually compete with much bigger players while remaining highly profitable. Good for them.

727LOVER wrote:

How many average daily flights do they have from JFK & BOS?

Today, they are 157 at jfk and 158 at bos. Over the past month, they had seen as high as 164. By later this year, they will probably reach 175 based on recent announcements. Jfk peaks at about 175 in summer months (before all their recent cuts due to lack of aircraft).

Good to hear on aip. Hope it passes.

tphuang wrote:

Domestic LF is available now for February, this is mint routes from Jan and Feb of this year. March is supposed to be their best month, but the first 2 look good too.

I wonder how long the high LFs for "VX routes" (now AS) will last. If AS is gutting the quality of first class, LFs should plunge.

Blerg wrote:

With the new terminal opening in Salt Lake City, could we see them add more flights there? Or Denver?

Denver is pretty saturated. Great location, great airport but Southwest and United have the place covered.

SLC B6 has a pretty decent operation right now. They tried a focus city once to some Cali cities not Long Beach and Delta was ruthless in defending against them. I am sure they want to pick a fight right now as Delta seems more commited to SLC than ever.

I love JetBlue's product, it's amazing compared to the legacies but I am not sure if any new cities from SLC would work. The have in the future 3x LGB, 2x JFK, BOS, MCO, FLL. No big B6 cities left at this point. Maybe they could try AUS ?

You pose the big question for B6 where do they expand NOT on the East coast??

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

With the new terminal opening in Salt Lake City, could we see them add more flights there? Or Denver?

Denver is pretty saturated. Great location, great airport but Southwest and United have the place covered.

SLC B6 has a pretty decent operation right now. They tried a focus city once to some Cali cities not Long Beach and Delta was ruthless in defending against them. I am sure they want to pick a fight right now as Delta seems more commited to SLC than ever.

I love JetBlue's product, it's amazing compared to the legacies but I am not sure if any new cities from SLC would work. The have in the future 3x LGB, 2x JFK, BOS, MCO, FLL. No big B6 cities left at this point. Maybe they could try AUS ?

You pose the big question for B6 where do they expand NOT on the East coast??

Your last sentence is exactly what I am talking about. I mean, at some point B6 will have to 'attack' one of the fortress hubs of other airlines otherwise they will never manage to penetrate large markets on the other side of the country. The real question is where do they start? Could Seattle be one of the possible candidates?

Blerg wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

Your last sentence is exactly what I am talking about. I mean, at some point B6 will have to 'attack' one of the fortress hubs of other airlines otherwise they will never manage to penetrate large markets on the other side of the country. The real question is where do they start? Could Seattle be one of the possible candidates?

Seattle would be the last place to start given that Alaska and Delta have been battling it out there for some time.

B6 has been taking it especially to DL by adding flights to SLC and MSP and the return to ATL.

My guess is you see JB starting flights to Europe and taking advantage of their strengths in BOS/JFK and potentially even FLL (not sure if the A321LR could make the United Kingdom from there).

Blerg wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

With the new terminal opening in Salt Lake City, could we see them add more flights there? Or Denver?

Denver is pretty saturated. Great location, great airport but Southwest and United have the place covered.

SLC B6 has a pretty decent operation right now. They tried a focus city once to some Cali cities not Long Beach and Delta was ruthless in defending against them. I am sure they want to pick a fight right now as Delta seems more commited to SLC than ever.

I love JetBlue's product, it's amazing compared to the legacies but I am not sure if any new cities from SLC would work. The have in the future 3x LGB, 2x JFK, BOS, MCO, FLL. No big B6 cities left at this point. Maybe they could try AUS ?

You pose the big question for B6 where do they expand NOT on the East coast??

Your last sentence is exactly what I am talking about. I mean, at some point B6 will have to 'attack' one of the fortress hubs of other airlines otherwise they will never manage to penetrate large markets on the other side of the country. The real question is where do they start? Could Seattle be one of the possible candidates?

In the next 2 years, I think they are pretty tied up with expanding at bos and fll. They can reach 200 flights at bos by 2020 by my estimation and 140 flights at fll by 2021. The question has always been what comes after that. With oil prices going higher and economy likely to pop at some point, there will be tougher times for airlines in a couple of years which would create opportunities for airlines that are still doing well. If they can get to 40% market share in bos and commanding position at fll, that will give them a lot of resources to expand into new places.

Assuming b6 is still doing as well as it is vs competitors in a couple of years, the question is where are the opportunities.

I think aa will cut back at jfk. With slot restrictions possibly going away and their plans for new giant terminal, b6 could have huge expansion plans at jfk after 2020. The next is mco where they are moving into a new terminal.

With the new ewr terminal a, b6 would be able to profitably add many flights if they can even get 2 more gates there.

Ua will likely cut back given that they have the lowest margin and least profitable fortress hubs of the legacies. iAd is likely the next best opportunity for b6 given that ua isn’t that committed to it.

Dl will probably cut back on rdu if economy goes south. That would be a good place for b6 to expand from. They already do really well with all the flights they added there.

As faces a lot of pressure in the west coast since their vx purchase. I can see them retreating from sfo if things get bad. If that’s the case, b6 can expand at sfo and make it their next focus city. That would be a very expensive move though.

If ua cuts back from lax in a downturn, b6 could possibly gain more gate space there and expand their operation. Although, I think it’s more likely for them to move their operation to Ontario from Long Beach.

People always talk about Austin. I guess they can set it up as as Mexico + Central America gateway, but they would struggle adding more than 20 flights there.

I am sure they would love to have a bigger presence at den and slc, but I don’t see it happening.

Thank you both for the replies. I think B6 is a great airline and I do hope they keep their Long Beach hub, that's one of the most beautiful airports I've been to, especially in summer evenings.

With three daily to MSP from BOS, could we see them add more destinations?

Long Beach is a gem.

Maybe the safest move is to expand into BOS/JFK-CDG/LGW/DUB. That should keep their business frequent flyers happy and keep some out of DL/AA seats less.

I hope B6 doesn't consider an Alaska merger, it would give them the national network but Alaska has alot of problems right now. Maybe a true partnership in FF programs could be mutually beneficial for flyers ?? Offer more routes for customers, they have little overlap.

After MSP, they have announced BUR/MEX/HDN so far. I think over the next year, they are going to have to add a couple of midwest location like IND/CMH/CVG/MKE/STL. But the big ones will be Europe and hopefully we will hear about it this week.

a couple of more notes from the new T-100 numbers. To see how they are doing against WN additions in FLL, here are just oct/Nov international LF form FLL. (July to Sep a little distorted due to hurricanes)
FLLHAV 255.00
WN 42636 65.14
B6 33150 51.52
FLLCUN 549.00
NK 27733 83.37
B6 18150 74.30
WN 32318 49.76
FLLMBJ 540.00
BW 18942 74.23
WN 24882 84.15
B6 18300 86.65
NK 16780 82.93
FLLNAS 182.00
WN 17510 78.28
B6 48200 80.89
UP 40110 69.88
FLLPLS 579.00
WN 7436 36.79
B6 12400 41.01

Obviously really bad to HAV, but they generally do well against WN in these international markets. The PLS numbers are shockingly low for both parties.

The other one to watch out for is the competition with DL out of BOS. Again, from January/Feb. Keep in mind these are low traveling month so some of the business markets have lower LF than usual.

First the DL fortress hubs
BOSSLC 2105.00
DL 36063 86.29
B6 18000 76.43
BOSATL 946.00
NK 16001 73.10
DL 207750 77.58
B6 80250 64.14
WN 41494 67.90
BOSDTW 632.00
DL 98496 74.34
B6 36200 76.61
ATL is a little concerning, but they are doing about as well LF wise as WN.

The florida stuff
BOSFLL 1237.00
DL 22714 80.91
NK 51937 74.81
B6 105450 89.00
BOSMCO 1121.00
WN 2177 77.54
DL 48371 78.30
NK 44889 81.11
B6 132012 82.66
BOSTPA 1185.00
DL 33730 65.13
NK 31411 64.09
B6 66650 83.50
BOSRSW 1249.00
DL 13593 73.11
NK 45145 67.87
B6 116450 79.54
BOSPBI 1197.00
DL 13797 74.94
NK 16525 73.68
B6 95500 81.90
BOSJAX 1010.00
YX 5131 52.48
B6 31800 79.02
Not really a surprise here that B6 dominates DL. DL at JAX is doing pretty badly considering they are flying regional there.

here are the other stuff
BOSPIT 496.00
PT 4150 48.70
9E 14364 34.41
YX 6916 54.21
B6 59900 61.88
BOSAUS 1698.00
WN 15612 77.36
B6 15650 83.71
DL 11615 56.90
BOSBUF 395.00
B6 36850 66.33
9E 11949 52.62
BOSBNA 942.00
YX 6478 70.19
B6 27300 72.82
9E 7143 62.27
WN 32349 74.32
BOSLGA 184.00
AA 120878 52.77
YX 63416 71.57
DL 54051 61.18
B6 56800 62.70
BOSJFK 187.00
AA 11118 62.21
DL 32144 71.76
9E 43163 69.24
YX 8056 73.04
B6 72850 75.50
BOSRIC 474.00
B6 36400 70.55
EV 17572 58.42
BOSRDU 612.00
G7 13252 61.62
OO 6460 79.86
DL 10938 53.12
9E 13142 71.85
B6 47500 77.89

most of the regional codes from above are for DL. Outside of PIT, where 9E is DL regional and rest are AA I think. Generally, DL has been doing pretty badly on the newer routes. 34% on PIT really stands out.

Thank you for the numbers, they are more than interesting. That's what I have been saying all along. Overall, B6 seems like it is doing quite well in the markets they serve. I fail to see why they would consider a merger with anyone, especially not now when they are starting to expand westward.

Blerg wrote:

Thank you for the numbers, they are more than interesting. That's what I have been saying all along. Overall, B6 seems like it is doing quite well in the markets they serve. I fail to see why they would consider a merger with anyone, especially not now when they are starting to expand westward.

Well if another airline comes along with a generous offer, B6 would need to consider it. I think if it starts looking like the regulators will allow a B6/AS merger they would be insane not to do it. The combined airline could absolutely dominate transcon flying and could really hammer some of the big boys on Hawaii flights (mint anyone?).

B6 is pioneering a niche in US air travel thanks to the densification/basication of the US3 as well as the prevalence of NK/F9. This niche is a basically a whole airline premium economy type product. You will have good friendly service, good snacks, free wifi, decent amount of space, in seat TV, ect. In very large markets (NYC, BOS, South FL, CA) notably ones that have experienced rapid real estate price appreciation there are tons of customers willing to pay more for this service. In a smaller markets, especially in the midwest where house prices have not appreciated nearly as much, customers are much less likely to want to spend more for this type of service.

That being said there is tons of room for growth with the 321LR. The low hanging fruit would probably be 10ish flights a day to various European destinations, 3-4 to South America and adding some capacity domestically to feed these flights.

Think about this. Right now B6 doesn't really focus on selling connecting flights. They do really well with O&D at BOS and JFK - but those cities are also perfectly geographically located to facilitate TATL connections. Realistically with the 321LR, if B6 had enough gates/planes in BOS/JFK they could sell very convenient connections between most major markets in North America and most major markets in Europe. They could basically be the Emirates of the Northeast. Want to fly SAN-CPH, or SEA-PRG? Want to do it entirely in lie-flast business? 321LR is the answer.

MKIAZ wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Thank you for the numbers, they are more than interesting. That's what I have been saying all along. Overall, B6 seems like it is doing quite well in the markets they serve. I fail to see why they would consider a merger with anyone, especially not now when they are starting to expand westward.

Well if another airline comes along with a generous offer, B6 would need to consider it. I think if it starts looking like the regulators will allow a B6/AS merger they would be insane not to do it. The combined airline could absolutely dominate transcon flying and could really hammer some of the big boys on Hawaii flights (mint anyone?).

B6 is pioneering a niche in US air travel thanks to the densification/basication of the US3 as well as the prevalence of NK/F9. This niche is a basically a whole airline premium economy type product. You will have good friendly service, good snacks, free wifi, decent amount of space, in seat TV, ect. In very large markets (NYC, BOS, South FL, CA) notably ones that have experienced rapid real estate price appreciation there are tons of customers willing to pay more for this service. In a smaller markets, especially in the midwest where house prices have not appreciated nearly as much, customers are much less likely to want to spend more for this type of service.

That being said there is tons of room for growth with the 321LR. The low hanging fruit would probably be 10ish flights a day to various European destinations, 3-4 to South America and adding some capacity domestically to feed these flights.

Think about this. Right now B6 doesn't really focus on selling connecting flights. They do really well with O&D at BOS and JFK - but those cities are also perfectly geographically located to facilitate TATL connections. Realistically with the 321LR, if B6 had enough gates/planes in BOS/JFK they could sell very convenient connections between most major markets in North America and most major markets in Europe. They could basically be the Emirates of the Northeast. Want to fly SAN-CPH, or SEA-PRG? Want to do it entirely in lie-flast business? 321LR is the answer.

If, say, AS and B6 were to merger, my biggest question is whether the HQ of the new combined airline will be in Seattle or New York... I'm sure that they'd both fight pretty hard to keep their current HQ's...

But that's the thing, B6 keeps on growing and so does AS. A merger between two healthy companies that don't really need one another would be a messy business. In my opinion B6 is here to stay and I don't see them getting into bed with anyone, especially not now when they are starting to look west.

The numbers we were provided with are best proof of that. They have built quite a reputation in both New York and Boston and they are managing to remain the dominant player in many markets out there, even when compared to Delta which is much bigger than they are.

I really like B6 and I am sure they'll keep this business model as it seems to be working for them. Maybe they won't make it in every market out there but then again, no airline can.

I think there is a lot of merger talk on this forum for B6 because they sit on valuable properties that a lot of airlines would want. It's pretty annoying as someone who likes having choices in NYC. I actually don't even fly that much on them these days, because they don't really fulfill my network need, but I would like to if they have a better ff program and start to fly to Europe. I think there is more growth ahead for them than a lot of people think. JFK de-slotting would be huge and they can really build that T5 to T7 out. It would bring in a lot of growth opportunities + international partners. They have enough gate space at BOS to add to probably 230 daily flights, which would be 40 to 50% domestic market share. Once that happens and if economy goes south, other airlines will shrink and they can grow even more. FLL can turn into a great Latin America hub. They really have hubs that are not great for domestic connections but great for international connections. That's why A321LR order could be so great. It will really feed the domestic flights. They can then continue to build out MCO, but that will always be less profitable than FLL given how large and established WN is.

This might be a B6 fanboy's point of view, but I see far more issues with AS's current position than B6 given that B6 has been successfully profitable with a smaller market share of the market they are in (which AS hasn't been able to do) and AS is facing many new competitive issues. If B6 reach SEA/PDX level market share at BOS, they would have far more monopoly/near-monopoly on profitable routes. They just need to be profitable through the next downturn to take advantage of new situations.


Also based on what I'm reading on their pilot forum, it seems like E90 is toast and C-Series might get announced as early as next week during their shareholders meeting. Could be a huge/interesting week ahead if both Europe + C-Series get announced.

Seems to be a fare war on the new MSP-BOS. $50/$60 fares most days is crazy! DL/B6 fighting it out.

Jetblue pilots and management achieved an agreement in principle on Friday.

Midwestindy wrote:

I think the not so secret problem is not a/c, but the fact that B6 doesn't have a lot of confidence in their E190s vs the E175 or 737 due to its high CASM (Hence the reason MSP-BOS is on the A320).

How times change. The E190 was the weapon against 50-seaters. Now that there are significantly fewer, it make the E190 economics look less viable.

tphuang wrote:

But the big ones will be Europe and hopefully we will hear about it this week.

Is that really to be expected? The transatlantic market is so competitive that I would think it much more likely that they'd stay away from that and go deeper into Latin America with the LRs.

The good news for B6 is that image displayed in here earlier it looks like every one if the top 50 o&d routes out of BOS is easily within A321NEO LR range. If you can fly to all 50 top markets you can win over BOS. I think B6 is already the king, but they should be able to hold it down and win over even more FFs if they can launch DUB, LGW, and CDG that is all they need . No more Europe is needed.

If/when B6 goes transatlantic, I do wonder what kind of product they'll offer in economy class. Will they go the way of Icelandair and Norwegian or will they copy other legacy carriers and offer a full service.

aviationaware wrote:

tphuang wrote:

But the big ones will be Europe and hopefully we will hear about it this week.

Is that really to be expected? The transatlantic market is so competitive that I would think it much more likely that they'd stay away from that and go deeper into Latin America with the LRs.

The same could have been said for the US transcon market.....NY/BOS to LA and SF. JB was really able to disrupt those routes and those flights are now leaders in JB's route structure. They'll pull enough of a customer base from NY/BOS to fill those planes up profitably and at minimal risk with a 321LR.

AirbusA322 wrote:

Seems to be a fare war on the new MSP-BOS. $50/$60 fares most days is crazy! DL/B6 fighting it out.

It happened on BOS-ATL and BOS-LGA also. The fares just crashed when JetBlue entered. I think those $50/60 fares will be around until SY and/or NK drop out. Looking at BOS-ATL right now, the fares there are still in the low 50s O/W and it's only 20 minutes shorter flight than BOS-MSP.

On those BOS-ATL/LGA, DL is probably loosing $70 million in revenue per year after B6 entered. And that's not even counting the effects of JFK/FLL/MCO-ATL. Same will happen on MSP, that's why DL is going after B6.

If/when B6 goes transatlantic, I do wonder what kind of product they'll offer in economy class. Will they go the way of Icelandair and Norwegian or will they copy other legacy carriers and offer a full service.

probably the latter. B6 is not a low fare carrier. They are a high service, low cost, good value carrier. In fact with their new wifi system Viasat-2, they will have almost full coverage from BOS/JFK to London. And a new IFE was just recently announced. Hard to imagine they won't have the best y product once they enter.

https://www.viasat.com/viasat-2-coverag ... o-istanbul

Another thing I've looked at recently is domestic competition at FLL between B6 and WN. Now, I've generated yields based on LF and average price for their competing routes for each of the 2017 quarters. It's not entirely accurate since there are connection traffic that's unaccounted for. But since both airlines are more O&D driven than legacies, this is probably a better comparison than AA vs DL. I've generated number as WN's yield over B6. So if you see 105% and B6 yield's is 100, then WN's is 105. So the lower the number, the better for B6. The higher the number, the better for WN.

Here is a breakdown
Route Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
FLLALB 119.99% 116.75% 110.98% 108.97%
FLLAUS 105.02% 108.59% 101.62% 97.07%
FLLBWI 117.48% 106.90% 123.67% 112.53%
FLLBUF 99.00% 109.19% 110.05% 101.32%
FLLBDL 92.13% 96.04% 99.97% 92.19%
FLLLAS 110.52% 107.51% 99.51% 106.38%
FLLBNA 140.55% 132.20% 134.28% 130.68%
FLLMSY 117.66% 126.91% 142.69% 132.06%
FLLPHL 86.67% 104.56% 107.28% 113.95%
FLLPIT 108.85% 111.32% 123.39% 123.48%
FLLPVD 103.25% 105.92% 99.27% 110.13%
FLLRDU 89.60% 92.04% 102.08% 98.50%
FLLSJU 76.70% 85.79% 89.00% 81.90%
FLLDCA 75.64% 79.72% 86.20% 75.79%
FLLEWR 72.03% 66.07% 71.43% 69.14%

As a whole, I think the trend is moving in B6 direction. Q4 was specially a good quarter for them. I think Q3 numbers are slightly distorted due to hurricane season. But overall, B6 seems to be gaining strength.

B6's worst routes are BNA and MSY, which should not be a surprise given that they are new routes and heavy WN stations. PHL numbers looked worse in Q4 than any other quarters, but that might be AA's effect. B6 does quite well on some many stations where WN is much larger. On stations where they are similar sized or B6 is larger like SJU/EWR/DCA, B6 really kills WN. So my impression is that B6 is doing a pretty good job at capturing the point of sale at FLL.

My guess is that Q1 probably was even better since they mentioned in earnings call that it beat system average RASM by 6%.

Now, if I were to run this check on MCO, my sense is the direction would be opposite. Shows their investment in FLL is paying off.