FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-FPO JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
3M JAX-TPA JUN 3>1.5 JUL 3>1.6 AUG 3>1.6 SEP 3>1.5 OCT 3>1.6 NOV 3>1.6 DEC 3>1.5
*3M MCO-FPO JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.1

9K ACK-BOS MAY 17>14 JUN 19>16
9K ACK-EWB MAY 4>3
9K ACK-HPN MAY 0.0>0.8 JUN 1.2>4
9K ACK-HYA MAY 10>5 JUN 8>6
9K ACK-MVY JUN 1.5>1.1
9K BOS-HYA JUN 1.4>1.0
9K BOS-MVY MAY 9>8
9K HPN-MVY JUN 1.1>1.9
9K HYA-MVY JUN 1.1>1.8

9V MIA-BLA DEC 0>1.0
9V MIA-CCS DEC 0>1.0

AA CLT-MBJ DEC 3>4
AA CLT-SAT JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
AA CLT-YUL SEP 1.0>1.7
AA ORD-PUJ DEC 0.2>0.5
Didn't realize they are only adding 1 RT. This is not even intended to try to make money.
*AA PHL-ORH OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
AA PHX-BOI SEP 4>2 OCT 4>2
AA PHX-BUR SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
AA PHX-GDL DEC 1.0>1.4
AA PHX-MCO SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
AA PHX-RNO SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
AA PHX-SLC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5

AM FAT-GDL SEP 0.9>0.7 OCT 0.8>0.7
AM LAS-MTY OCT 0.5>0.4
AM SJC-GDL SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.8

Reverses last week, but only for Winter
*AS DAL-SAN NOV 0.1>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
Wow, close in transcon pullback...
*AS JFK-LAX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
*AS JFK-SFO AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AS PDX-PSP JUN 0.2>0.1

AT JFK-CMN MAY 1.1>1.0

AV DFW-SAL JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0 SEP 0.9>1.0 OCT 0.8>1.0 NOV 0.9>1.0 DEC 0.9>1.0
AV EWR-SAL JUL 0.7>0.8 AUG 0.7>1.0 SEP 0.7>1.0 OCT 0.7>1.0 NOV 0.7>1.0 DEC 0.7>1.0
AV IAH-SAL JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0

B6 FLL-NAS JUN 4>3
B6 JFK-POS JUN 1.6>1.0

CA IAH-PEK JUL 0.7>0.9 AUG 0.7>0.8

Schedule extension, anything new?
D8 PVD-DUB OCT 0.6>0.7 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
D8 SWF-DUB OCT 1.7>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2
D8 SWF-EDI OCT 0.5>0.6 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
D8 SWF-SNN OCT 0.4>0.5 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0

DI BOS-LGW NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>0.7
DI DEN-LGW NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4
DI FLL-LGW NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.5
DI JFK-LGW OCT 1.6>1.9 NOV 0>1.9 DEC 0>1.8
DI LAS-LGW NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3
DI LAX-LGW OCT 1.2>1.4 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
DI MCO-LGW NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4
DI OAK-LGW NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6
DI SEA-LGW NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6

DL ATL-BRU NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.6
DL ATL-DUS NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL ATL-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL ATL-GSO OCT 8>9
DL ATL-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL ATL-MLB OCT 4>3
DL ATL-STR NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL BOS-CDG NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL CVG-CDG NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL GRR-MSP OCT 5>4
DL ICT-MSP OCT 3>2
DL IND-CDG NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.6
DL JFK-ATL JUL 8>7
DL JFK-BCN NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-DFW OCT 1.8>3
DL JFK-EDI NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-PBI OCT 1.0>0
DL JFK-PUJ NOV 1.1>1.4 DEC 1.5>1.8
DL LGA-GSP JUL 1.3>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3 NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3
DL LGA-MHT JUL 1.9>1.2 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0 NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 1.1>0.6
DL MCO-PIT AUG 0.1>0.0
DL MDW-MSP OCT 7>6
DL MIA-RDU AUG 0.1>0.0
DL MSN-MSP OCT 6>5
DL RDU-CDG NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL SLC-AMS NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL SLC-CDG NOV 1.0>0.8 DEC 1.0>0.9

EI MCO-DUB NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.4>0.5

Looks like just an off-season cut
*EK FLL-DXB MAY 1.0>0.8 JUN 1.0>0.8

EW MIA-DUS NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4
EW RSW-DUS NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4

G7 CVG-STL MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8

J1 BUF-RDU JUN 0>0.7

NK FLL-MGA JUN 0.8>1.0 JUL 0.9>1.0
NK FLL-SAP JUN 0.8>1.0 JUL 0.9>1.0
NK FLL-SJO JUN 1.6>2 JUL 1.5>2 AUG 1.3>2 SEP 1.0>1.1

P1 MBL-MDW JUL 0>1.9 AUG 0>1.7

Q6 LAX-GUA SEP 0.3>0.4 OCT 0.3>0.5 NOV 0.1>0.4 DEC 0.2>0.4
Q6 LAX-SAL SEP 0.4>0.6 OCT 0.4>0.5 NOV 0.3>0.6 DEC 0.3>0.6

SU JFK-SVO JUN 3>4

SY BOS-MSP JUN 3>1.9 JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>1.8 SEP 3>1.4

UA DEN-CUN SEP 0.3>0.2
UA EWR-DEN SEP 9>8
UA EWR-GSO JUL 4>3
UA EWR-ORF JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
UA EWR-RIC SEP 6>5
UA IAD-CUN SEP 0.3>0.2
UA IAD-DEN SEP 8>7
UA IAD-LWB SEP 0.4>0.3
*UA IAD-PBG SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7
UA IAH-BRO JUL 5>3 AUG 5>4
UA IAH-BTR SEP 7>6
UA IAH-COS JUL 4>3
UA IAH-CRP JUL 6>5 SEP 7>6
UA IAH-DSM JUL 2>1.1 AUG 2.0>1.4
UA IAH-ECP JUL 4>3
UA IAH-IAD JUL 5>4
UA IAH-LBB JUL 4>3
UA IAH-LIT SEP 6>5
UA IAH-MSP JUL 5>4
UA IAH-ORF JUL 3>1.3 AUG 3>1.5
UA IAH-RDU SEP 5>4
UA IAH-RIC JUL 1.8>0.9 AUG 1.9>1.3
UA IAH-RNO SEP 0.3>0.2
UA IAH-SAV JUL 3>1.1 AUG 3>1.5
UA IAH-SDF JUL 4>3
UA IAH-VPS JUL 5>4
UA IAH-YVR JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.6>1.0
UA LAX-IAD SEP 8>7
UA LAX-LAS SEP 3>4
UA ORD-ALB JUL 5>4
UA ORD-BZN SEP 1.7>1.1
UA ORD-EYW SEP 0.3>0.2
UA ORD-FSD NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
UA ORD-GSO JUL 4>3
UA ORD-IND JUL 9>8
UA ORD-LNK JUL 4>3
UA ORD-MKE JUL 10>9
UA ORD-ROC JUL 5>4
UA ORD-SDF JUL 6>5
UA ORD-SGF JUL 4>3
UA SFO-DEN SEP 12>11
UA SFO-LAS JUN 10>9
UA SFO-LIH SEP 2>1.2
UA SFO-MSP JUN 3>1.7
UA SFO-SEA AUG 13>12 SEP 10>8

VS JFK-LHR NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5

BOS is kinda surprising
*WS BOS-YUL JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.9>0
*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0
*WS ORD-YYC JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.7>0

RIP
ZK DEN-TEX MAY 1.3>0 JUN 1.3>0 JUL 1.3>0 AUG 1.3>0 SEP 1.3>0 OCT 1.2>0 NOV 1.1>0 DEC 1.0>0
ZK LAX-PRC MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0 SEP 1.7>0 OCT 1.7>0
ZK PGA-PHX MAY 1.9>0 JUN 1.8>0 JUL 1.9>0 AUG 1.9>0 SEP 1.8>0 OCT 1.9>0

enilria wrote:

BOS is kinda surprising
*WS BOS-YUL JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.9>0
*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0
*WS ORD-YYC JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.7>0

Shall we look for DL to file BOS-YUL next week?

enilria wrote:

BOS is kinda surprising
*WS BOS-YUL JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.9>0
*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0
*WS ORD-YYC JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.7>0

Very surprising. Back to AC being the only carrier on the route with CRJs/CR9s. Not sure why this is such a hard route to make work. Similar in distance as YUL-NYC, but that drive to BOS is still partially off-highway in southern Quebec (south of St. Jean sur Richelieu to the border...and it can be a slow ride). Obviously the demand is smaller than YUL-NYC...but 30x daily to NYC this summer on a mix of RJs and mainline versus 6x to BOS is a disproportionate difference given the markets.

DL flew this for years, I believe until their last big pulldown in BOS back around 2008. I wonder if they will bring it back now that they are in a rebuilding phase there.

enilria wrote:

Wow, close in transcon pullback...
*AS JFK-LAX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
*AS JFK-SFO AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4

As already discussed a week ago ...

The frequency in these markets, in absolute terms, aren't that bad, but the schedules are fairly rough for business travel competitiveness: last westbound JFK-SFO is before 1700, first eastbound SFO-JFK is after 0900, no westbound JFK-LAX between 1300 and 2000, and first eastbound LAX-JFK isn't until almost 1100.

That said, given the level of competition on JFK-LAX/SFO from four major rivals with significantly better premium offerings, it isn't at all surprising why Alaska would - just as many of us expected and predicted at the time of the merger - give up on seriously competing for premium traffic on these routes. With the economies of scale from standardizing cabins and configurations over a relatively smaller fleet, that likely is the profit-maximizing approach, particularly since those slots can be used on other routes where competition is less intense and/or Alaska is relatively stronger.

enilria wrote:

*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0

Actually, the last day for this is June 27th, as I was booked on the 28th YYC-DFW on WS, and am now flying YYC-MSP-DFW on DL.


Grrrrrrr

HVNandrew wrote:

enilria wrote:

BOS is kinda surprising
*WS BOS-YUL JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.9>0

Very surprising.

I disagree - on the leisure end people make the drive...WS advertised this heavily on the radio this fall too but it didn't work. Not many connections in YUL with WS as well.

enilria wrote:

3M FLL-FPO JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
3M JAX-TPA JUN 3>1.5 JUL 3>1.6 AUG 3>1.6 SEP 3>1.5 OCT 3>1.6 NOV 3>1.6 DEC 3>1.5
*3M MCO-FPO JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.1

Seems to be same plane ATR service HSV-MCO-FPO-MCO-HSV. I was wondering if we would start to see reductions in frequency in order to start new routes once the ATRs started coming in. Will be interesting to see what else gets trimmed.

IAH-MSP with no flight after 2:20 PM, got to be a mistake....
IAH-RIC gets one E175, still seems 2x daily
IAH-BRO still shows 5x daily
Could UA have not updated their booking engine yet? Many routes still seem to show their former frequencies.

Thanks as always enilria!

Midwestindy wrote:

enilria wrote:

J1 BUF-RDU JUN 0>0.7

Is this an easter egg?

Pretty good trick to have your repliy showing ahead of the main post!

Months back OneJet announced their intention to serve BUF-RDU using the ER3 which curently sits for close to eight hours mid-day in Buffalo. Since then Frontier announced (and recentliy commenced) BUF-RDU but only twice per week, Wedneday and Saturday. Obviously almost none of the buiness market between BUF and RDU can use that, but the question is how much non-busines traffic will OneJet need in the market to make money with the 30-seat RJ. Maybe the answer is zero -- that there is enough high-fare buiness traffic in the market willing to use the 1x/weekday OneJet nonstop. But I think as they move to 30-seat RJ's they will ue (and nee to use) more dynamic pricing to maximize revenues on Monday morning when 26 people need to travel but lure some price-conscious travelers on Friday morning when 20 seats would otherwise fly empty. They have already been tryign this on BUF-ALB. Haiving F9 in the market, even 2x per week, could be a chalenge for those extra passenger.

Midwestindy wrote:

enilria wrote:

J1 BUF-RDU JUN 0>0.7

Is this an easter egg?

I don't get this route. Is there that much demand between these two cities?

Thanks as always enilria!

MIflyer12 wrote:

enilria wrote:

BOS is kinda surprising
*WS BOS-YUL JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.9>0
*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0
*WS ORD-YYC JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.7>0

Shall we look for DL to file BOS-YUL next week?

Perhaps some new routes are coming that will align with the Delta network better BOS-YUL on DL and YYC-ATL/DTW on WS

DL ATL-BRU NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.6
DL ATL-DUS NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL ATL-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL ATL-GSO OCT 8>9
DL ATL-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL ATL-MLB OCT 4>3
DL ATL-STR NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL BOS-CDG NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL CVG-CDG NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL GRR-MSP OCT 5>4
DL ICT-MSP OCT 3>2
DL IND-CDG NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.6
DL JFK-ATL JUL 8>7
DL JFK-BCN NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-DFW OCT 1.8>3
DL JFK-EDI NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-PBI OCT 1.0>0
DL JFK-PUJ NOV 1.1>1.4 DEC 1.5>1.8
DL LGA-GSP JUL 1.3>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3 NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3
DL LGA-MHT JUL 1.9>1.2 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0 NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 1.1>0.6
DL MCO-PIT AUG 0.1>0.0
DL MDW-MSP OCT 7>6
DL MIA-RDU AUG 0.1>0.0
DL MSN-MSP OCT 6>5
DL RDU-CDG NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL SLC-AMS NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL SLC-CDG NOV 1.0>0.8 DEC 1.0>0.9


Pretty impressed not a single Detroit reduction this week.

DL JFK-ATL JUL 8>7
DL JFK-BCN NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-DFW OCT 1.8>3
DL JFK-EDI NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-PBI OCT 1.0>0
DL JFK-PUJ NOV 1.1>1.4 DEC 1.5>1.8
DL LGA-GSP JUL 1.3>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3 NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3
DL LGA-MHT JUL 1.9>1.2 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0 NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 1.1>0.6

At the end of the day, how profitable is DL in NYC?

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Wow, close in transcon pullback...
*AS JFK-LAX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
*AS JFK-SFO AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4

As already discussed a week ago ...

The frequency in these markets, in absolute terms, aren't that bad, but the schedules are fairly rough for business travel competitiveness: last westbound JFK-SFO is before 1700, first eastbound SFO-JFK is after 0900, no westbound JFK-LAX between 1300 and 2000, and first eastbound LAX-JFK isn't until almost 1100.

That said, given the level of competition on JFK-LAX/SFO from four major rivals with significantly better premium offerings, it isn't at all surprising why Alaska would - just as many of us expected and predicted at the time of the merger - give up on seriously competing for premium traffic on these routes. With the economies of scale from standardizing cabins and configurations over a relatively smaller fleet, that likely is the profit-maximizing approach, particularly since those slots can be used on other routes where competition is less intense and/or Alaska is relatively stronger.

Especially considering the one SFOJFK and one LAXJFK pulled are now funding a 3rd SEAJFK along with a SJCJFK with optimal timing, giving AS great Bay Area-JFK options, not just limited to SFO.

seatback wrote:

DL JFK-ATL JUL 8>7
DL JFK-BCN NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-DFW OCT 1.8>3
DL JFK-EDI NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-PBI OCT 1.0>0
DL JFK-PUJ NOV 1.1>1.4 DEC 1.5>1.8
DL LGA-GSP JUL 1.3>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3 NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3
DL LGA-MHT JUL 1.9>1.2 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0 NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 1.1>0.6

At the end of the day, how profitable is DL in NYC?

Near breakeven according to Scott Kirby; a high margin area to Edward Bastian, maybe in between ~5% I'd guess, but really there's no way to legally know.

klm617 wrote:

Pretty impressed not a single Detroit reduction this week.

Are you happy? DL must be making money...

enilria wrote:

SU JFK-SVO JUN 3>4

4x daily Moscow-New York, odd timing for an increase, especially being Russia
Have they ever been that high before?

enilria wrote:

*UA IAD-PBG SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7

It's A.net wisdom that IAD is in imminent threat of UA de-hubbing. Separately, every few weeks there's an article with Scott Kirby extolling the virtues of timing your hub schedule for good connectivity and the virtues of being in small markets, especially being the only player in a small market.

If find it interesting and encouraging that nearly every week's OAG thread has some new IAD add to a market I'd never heard of.

For all the doom and gloom about IAD, it seems like UA is gradually building up the small market connectivity that would make the hub a lucrative part of the network.

adamblang wrote:

enilria wrote:

*UA IAD-PBG SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7

It's A.net wisdom that IAD is in imminent threat of UA de-hubbing. Separately, every few weeks there's an article with Scott Kirby extolling the virtues of timing your hub schedule for good connectivity and the virtues of being in small markets, especially being the only player in a small market.

If find it interesting and encouraging that nearly every week's OAG thread has some new IAD add to a market I'd never heard of.

For all the doom and gloom about IAD, it seems like UA is gradually building up the small market connectivity that would make the hub a lucrative part of the network.

For what it's worth PBG (Plattsburgh) is a subsidized EAS market which United bid for and won.

G7 CVG-STL May 0>0.9...

G7 is GoJet which operates as Delta Connection and United Express. They currently operate one flight as DL* CVG-STL. Wonder why it shows up as G7?

knope2001 wrote:

adamblang wrote:

enilria wrote:

*UA IAD-PBG SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7

It's A.net wisdom that IAD is in imminent threat of UA de-hubbing. Separately, every few weeks there's an article with Scott Kirby extolling the virtues of timing your hub schedule for good connectivity and the virtues of being in small markets, especially being the only player in a small market.

If find it interesting and encouraging that nearly every week's OAG thread has some new IAD add to a market I'd never heard of.

For all the doom and gloom about IAD, it seems like UA is gradually building up the small market connectivity that would make the hub a lucrative part of the network.

For what it's worth PBG (Plattsburgh) is a subsidized EAS market which United bid for and won.

Why would PBG need EAS when they have scheduled ULCC service. Is this so they can have connection options?

HVNandrew wrote:

enilria wrote:

BOS is kinda surprising
*WS BOS-YUL JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.9>0
*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0
*WS ORD-YYC JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.7>0

Very surprising. Back to AC being the only carrier on the route with CRJs/CR9s. Not sure why this is such a hard route to make work. Similar in distance as YUL-NYC, but that drive to BOS is still partially off-highway in southern Quebec (south of St. Jean sur Richelieu to the border...and it can be a slow ride). Obviously the demand is smaller than YUL-NYC...but 30x daily to NYC this summer on a mix of RJs and mainline versus 6x to BOS is a disproportionate difference given the markets.

DL flew this for years, I believe until their last big pulldown in BOS back around 2008. I wonder if they will bring it back now that they are in a rebuilding phase there.

Here are the load factor on BOS-YUL from July to October according to T100.
WS 5148 60.35
QK 70065 79.61

Let's not pretend this is anything other than AC beating WS on a route that it should dominate. Canadian PoS typically dominates transborder routes.

Why are there so many TATL cuts from Delta? Are there not enough aircraft?

Chuska wrote:

G7 CVG-STL May 0>0.9...

G7 is GoJet which operates as Delta Connection and United Express. They currently operate one flight as DL* CVG-STL. Wonder why it shows up as G7?

It showed up last week as well, must be some sort of filing error by Delta or GoJet.

jubguy3 wrote:

Why are there so many TATL cuts from Delta? Are there not enough aircraft?

Most of them are normal reductions that occur every year.

adamblang wrote:

For all the doom and gloom about IAD, it seems like UA is gradually building up the small market connectivity that would make the hub a lucrative part of the network.

I would much-prefer that these new, smaller markets connect through IAD instead of capacity-crunched EWR. IAD still provides connnecting service to a substantial number of markets, including all the major US markets so it's not like bypassing EWR is going to leave these smaller cities at a major disadvantage.

cvgComair wrote:

Chuska wrote:

G7 CVG-STL May 0>0.9...

G7 is GoJet which operates as Delta Connection and United Express. They currently operate one flight as DL* CVG-STL. Wonder why it shows up as G7?

It showed up last week as well, must be some sort of filing error by Delta or GoJet.

Not an error per se but a failure to suppress the route. They have to file something with their code to keep it active but it isn’t supposed to show up. AX is a somewhat frequent offender with this as well (it almost always used to be STL-PIT when they flew that for US).

EA CO AS wrote:

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Wow, close in transcon pullback...
*AS JFK-LAX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
*AS JFK-SFO AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4

As already discussed a week ago ...

The frequency in these markets, in absolute terms, aren't that bad, but the schedules are fairly rough for business travel competitiveness: last westbound JFK-SFO is before 1700, first eastbound SFO-JFK is after 0900, no westbound JFK-LAX between 1300 and 2000, and first eastbound LAX-JFK isn't until almost 1100.

That said, given the level of competition on JFK-LAX/SFO from four major rivals with significantly better premium offerings, it isn't at all surprising why Alaska would - just as many of us expected and predicted at the time of the merger - give up on seriously competing for premium traffic on these routes. With the economies of scale from standardizing cabins and configurations over a relatively smaller fleet, that likely is the profit-maximizing approach, particularly since those slots can be used on other routes where competition is less intense and/or Alaska is relatively stronger.

Especially considering the one SFOJFK and one LAXJFK pulled are now funding a 3rd SEAJFK along with a SJCJFK with optimal timing, giving AS great Bay Area-JFK options, not just limited to SFO.

Thank God. I hope it is a trend that continues. It's about time for us south bay travelers.

knope2001 wrote:

adamblang wrote:

enilria wrote:

*UA IAD-PBG SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7

It's A.net wisdom that IAD is in imminent threat of UA de-hubbing. Separately, every few weeks there's an article with Scott Kirby extolling the virtues of timing your hub schedule for good connectivity and the virtues of being in small markets, especially being the only player in a small market.

If find it interesting and encouraging that nearly every week's OAG thread has some new IAD add to a market I'd never heard of.

For all the doom and gloom about IAD, it seems like UA is gradually building up the small market connectivity that would make the hub a lucrative part of the network.

For what it's worth PBG (Plattsburgh) is a subsidized EAS market which United bid for and won.

OO bid for the contact, not UA. PenAir had it previously.

So does this mean that Westjet is gone from ORD & DFW? WS chose to end the AA code share and do a cross border deal with DL so I'm guessing these routes will be replaced with ATL, DTW, MSP & SLC.

*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0
*WS ORD-YYC JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.7>0

Looks like AS is trashing everything that Virgin had built at SFO. Was predictable. They can't compete with the big boys, so retrench to Seattle and secondary airports like SJC, PDX and SAN. I understand they are in this to make money, but just a shame that they have ruined what was a great product/carrier at SFO.

Why cant DL make PBI-JFK work?

Certainly has seasonal swings, but not a seasonal route

jbs2886 wrote:

seatback wrote:

DL JFK-ATL JUL 8>7
DL JFK-BCN NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-DFW OCT 1.8>3
DL JFK-EDI NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-PBI OCT 1.0>0
DL JFK-PUJ NOV 1.1>1.4 DEC 1.5>1.8
DL LGA-GSP JUL 1.3>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3 NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3
DL LGA-MHT JUL 1.9>1.2 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0 NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 1.1>0.6

At the end of the day, how profitable is DL in NYC?

The Europe routes are regular seasonal reductions, I don’t see how that translate into your dramatic question.

Plus, there is similar seasonal trimming at ATL and SLC, so there does not appear to be anything unusual in New York here.

One quick question about why there are so many reductions from 1.0 to 0.7. Does the specific dates upon which the two major holidays fall this year impact the cuts? In other words, does the 0.7 mean less than daily for the whole month, or are there just a bunch of no-op days around the holidays which are always slow on the Atlantic?

TW870 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

seatback wrote:

DL JFK-ATL JUL 8>7
DL JFK-BCN NOV 1.0>0.9 DEC 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-DFW OCT 1.8>3
DL JFK-EDI NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-MAD NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-PBI OCT 1.0>0
DL JFK-PUJ NOV 1.1>1.4 DEC 1.5>1.8
DL LGA-GSP JUL 1.3>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3 NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3
DL LGA-MHT JUL 1.9>1.2 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0 NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 1.1>0.6

At the end of the day, how profitable is DL in NYC?

The Europe routes are regular seasonal reductions, I don’t see how that translate into your dramatic question.

One quick question about why there are so many reductions from 1.0 to 0.7. Does the specific dates upon which the two major holidays fall this year impact the cuts? In other words, does the 0.7 mean less than daily for the whole month, or are there just a bunch of no-op days around the holidays which are always slow on the Atlantic?

The 0.7 means 5x/wk, so the routes are going from daily to 5x/wk for the whole month of Nov/Dec. For example, this is the updated schedule for JFK-FCO:

oosnowrat wrote:

knope2001 wrote:

adamblang wrote:

It's A.net wisdom that IAD is in imminent threat of UA de-hubbing. Separately, every few weeks there's an article with Scott Kirby extolling the virtues of timing your hub schedule for good connectivity and the virtues of being in small markets, especially being the only player in a small market.

If find it interesting and encouraging that nearly every week's OAG thread has some new IAD add to a market I'd never heard of.

For all the doom and gloom about IAD, it seems like UA is gradually building up the small market connectivity that would make the hub a lucrative part of the network.

For what it's worth PBG (Plattsburgh) is a subsidized EAS market which United bid for and won.

OO bid for the contact, not UA. PenAir had it previously.

Yup -- I should have been more specific. United has been submitting a few bids independent of Skywest (Presque Isle, and most recently Dickinson appears to have come directly from UA and not OO) but Plattsburgh was specifically Skywest like most of the UA* EAS flying has originated with.

EvanWSFO wrote:

Why would PBG need EAS when they have scheduled ULCC service. Is this so they can have connection options?

Essentially so. EAS was established as a minimum level of service...the number of flights per day, number of seats per day/week, and where those went to. The Spirit and Allegiant Florida flights at PBG don't meet the minimum flights per day/week, They also may not meet the "where" factor because while the flights to FLL (for example) serve a large airport it would not offer reaosnable connections to major destinations the way a closer hub airport does.

Midwestindy wrote:

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks as always enilria!

Midwestindy wrote:

Is this an easter egg?

Pretty good trick to have your repliy showing ahead of the main post!

Months back OneJet announced their intention to serve BUF-RDU using the ER3 which curently sits for close to eight hours mid-day in Buffalo.

Yep, my point was more towards the fact that this may not be the only route they are going to be officially announcing soon.

https://twitter.com/OneJetAir/status/979743211735437312

Ah...hadn't seen that but I understsand your comment better now! It makes one wonder because most business routes are not very seasonal beyond a few predictable slowdowns (like the last two weeks of December.) So that's leisure route such as what they just started from PIT to PTI. Winter flying south is an easy call. Summer routes are a little tougher to guess as summer tends to be more east-west and flights to places like Montana and Wyoming are awfully long for the E135. Maine, perhaps? Lots of routes post their strongest numbers over summer because of a leisure traffic infusion but I'm not sure many of them have enough traffic willing to pay somewhat higher fares for a nonstop RJ flight on an airline they don't find on Travelocity, Maybe PIT-JAC with a fifteen minute fuel stop in Sioux Falls?? No cheap fare to that part of the world in summer.

BoeingGuy wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

Looks like AS is trashing everything that Virgin had built at SFO. Was predictable. They can't compete with the big boys, so retrench to Seattle and secondary airports like SJC, PDX and SAN. I understand they are in this to make money, but just a shame that they have ruined what was a great product/carrier at SFO.

This is what mergers do. However, AS has never shown SFO much love. Pre-merger they started and discontinued ANC, LAX, SAN, TUS, YVR, CUN, MZT, and ZIH.

That might have to do with United.

MARSHAL1 wrote:

So does this mean that Westjet is gone from ORD & DFW? WS chose to end the AA code share and do a cross border deal with DL so I'm guessing these routes will be replaced with ATL, DTW, MSP & SLC.

*WS DFW-YYC JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 0.9>0
*WS ORD-YYC JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0 OCT 0.7>0

Hopefully at the very least DTW and ATL. MSP and SLC is already connected to YYC

SumChristianus wrote:

4x daily Moscow-New York, odd timing for an increase, especially being Russia
Have they ever been that high before?

On the other hand traffic at Russian airports is booming and Russian carriers are adding new routes and increasing services left and right. Maybe they are also trying to get more connecting traffic. In 2018 SVO should surpass (at least) FCO in PAX numbers and enter for the first time in the Top 10 of the busiest airports in Europe.

cvgComair wrote:

Chuska wrote:

G7 CVG-STL May 0>0.9...

G7 is GoJet which operates as Delta Connection and United Express. They currently operate one flight as DL* CVG-STL. Wonder why it shows up as G7?

It showed up last week as well, must be some sort of filing error by Delta or GoJet.

jubguy3 wrote:

Why are there so many TATL cuts from Delta? Are there not enough aircraft?

Most of them are normal reductions that occur every year.

Yes but that fact remains Delta had them listed as daily and reduced them so they are showing less demand than Delta anticipated.

BoeingGuy wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

Looks like AS is trashing everything that Virgin had built at SFO. Was predictable. They can't compete with the big boys, so retrench to Seattle and secondary airports like SJC, PDX and SAN. I understand they are in this to make money, but just a shame that they have ruined what was a great product/carrier at SFO.

This is what mergers do. However, AS has never shown SFO much love. Pre-merger they started and discontinued ANC, LAX, SAN, TUS, YVR, CUN, MZT, and ZIH.

Ive asked this question before...wasn’t VX losing money, pre-merger? If so, then isn’t it possible their operation at SFO might not have been making much or enough?

AA is going to Worcester not because it’s a great station, but to stroke Massport for some favorable treatment at Logan (which is the only reason B6 is there).

BoeingGuy wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

Looks like AS is trashing everything that Virgin had built at SFO. Was predictable. They can't compete with the big boys, so retrench to Seattle and secondary airports like SJC, PDX and SAN. I understand they are in this to make money, but just a shame that they have ruined what was a great product/carrier at SFO.

This is what mergers do. However, AS has never shown SFO much love. Pre-merger they started and discontinued ANC, LAX, SAN, TUS, YVR, CUN, MZT, and ZIH.

They could have saved a lot of money by skipping the "purchase VX" portion of this business plan. Let VX (or B6) continue to drag down yields for everyone on routes out of SFO while building up their other hubs/focus cities organically.

Obviously they didn't have any grand plan for winning the auction for VX and are just making it up as they go along now.

klm617 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

Chuska wrote:

G7 CVG-STL May 0>0.9...

G7 is GoJet which operates as Delta Connection and United Express. They currently operate one flight as DL* CVG-STL. Wonder why it shows up as G7?

It showed up last week as well, must be some sort of filing error by Delta or GoJet.

jubguy3 wrote:

Why are there so many TATL cuts from Delta? Are there not enough aircraft?

Most of them are normal reductions that occur every year.

Yes but that fact remains Delta had them listed as daily and reduced them so they are showing less demand than Delta anticipated.

It was just a filler schedule, Delta didn't anticipate anything. These changes are 7-8 months out, current bookings are not going to indicate what the demand is eventually going to be. CVG-CDG hasn't been daily during Nov/Dec in years, but every year the filler schedule shows daily until the date gets closer. I am 100% confident that Delta did not anticipate such demand.

ucdtim17 wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

Looks like AS is trashing everything that Virgin had built at SFO. Was predictable. They can't compete with the big boys, so retrench to Seattle and secondary airports like SJC, PDX and SAN. I understand they are in this to make money, but just a shame that they have ruined what was a great product/carrier at SFO.

This is what mergers do. However, AS has never shown SFO much love. Pre-merger they started and discontinued ANC, LAX, SAN, TUS, YVR, CUN, MZT, and ZIH.

They could have saved a lot of money by skipping the "purchase VX" portion of this business plan. Let VX (or B6) continue to drag down yields for everyone on routes out of SFO while building up their other hubs/focus cities organically.

Obviously they didn't have any grand plan for winning the auction for VX and are just making it up as they go along now.

The management at AS don't seem like fools to me. They likely did pay more than they should, but it was to avoid a much larger B6/VX. Everyone is freaking out over every flight that is dropped. That's something that happens in every merger. AS will likely take their time fine tuning the system while adjusting capacity and frequency. Had B6 acquired VX, all the VX transcons would be gone. Lets see where this is in a year. I think it will be running much better.

cvgComair wrote:

klm617 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

It showed up last week as well, must be some sort of filing error by Delta or GoJet.


Most of them are normal reductions that occur every year.

Yes but that fact remains Delta had them listed as daily and reduced them so they are showing less demand than Delta anticipated.

It was just a filler schedule, Delta didn't anticipate anything. These changes are 7-8 months out, current bookings are not going to indicate what the demand is eventually going to be. CVG-CDG hasn't been daily during Nov/Dec in years, but every year the filler schedule shows daily until the date gets closer. I am 100% confident that Delta did not anticipate such demand.

If they had no intention of flying these frequencies why were they selling them for months? I am not arguing with you. It just seems like a shady way of doing business.

ucdtim17 wrote:

They could have saved a lot of money by skipping the "purchase VX" portion of this business plan. Let VX (or B6) continue to drag down yields for everyone on routes out of SFO while building up their other hubs/focus cities organically.

Building what VX had in CA - especially with gates at SFO and LAX at a premium - would have taken AS at least a decade to do organically.

AirFiero wrote:

Thank God. I hope it is a trend that continues. It's about time for us south bay travelers.

AS looks at the Bay Area as a whole entity, not just at SFO. While SFO will continue to be the crown jewel for them in CA, building their presence and becoming an airline of choice to travelers throughout CA means serving multiple airports well, not just one.

EA CO AS wrote:

Especially considering the one SFOJFK and one LAXJFK pulled are now funding a 3rd SEAJFK along with a SJCJFK with optimal timing, giving AS great Bay Area-JFK options, not just limited to SFO.

Curious how a third SEA-JFK flight gives "AS great Bay Area-JFK options..."

Unless they're going to funnel people through SEA?