planemanofnz
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:14 am

afterburner wrote:
How about the prospect of IST-DPS-SYD (if Indonesian government allow it)?

It's unlikely, as although EK was granted rights on DXB - DPS - AKL, DPS - Australia is a different matter, as GA flies those routes.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Of course, some theoratical 5th freedom like IST-PVG-SYD would never happen (Seriously, there are people that actually believe China would give out fifth freedom rights to foreign carrier?)

Yes - they do, for example DL on PVG - NRT, in the past. Further, NZ was evaluating AKL - PVG - Europe route options previously.

Cheers,

C.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:17 pm

TG788 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Of course, some theoratical 5th freedom like IST-PVG-SYD would never happen (Seriously, there are people that actually believe China would give out fifth freedom rights to foreign carrier?)


Some exist already. EY has 5th freedom rights on PEK-NGO and PK for PEK-NRT. DL has PVG-NRT and KQ operate CAN-BKK.


Kind of a stupid question (I'm just not familiar with the law), who exactly granted the 5th freedom right? In, let say, DL's case, which (was) ATL-NRT-PVG (IIRC...), is China the one that grant the 5th freedom, or is it Japan?

Same can be said for KQ's NBO-BKK-CAN, is it granted by Thailand (Who grant 5th freedom rights left and right anyway), or China?

Now, yes, there are EY's NGO-PEK-AUH and PK's NRT-PEK-ISB-LHE, which is definitely Chinese fifth freedom. I still doubt they would grant 5th freedom for Aus/NZ routes, though, especially when CN3/4/5/6 has a fair presence in the China<->Australia (and to lesser extent, NZ) market. And for TK it makes more sense for IST-PEK-SYD due to the *A presence of CA anyway (or crazier, IST-CTU-SYD).
 
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flyingclrs727
Posts: 1864
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:01 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Kind of a stupid question (I'm just not familiar with the law), who exactly granted the 5th freedom right? In, let say, DL's case, which (was) ATL-NRT-PVG (IIRC...), is China the one that grant the 5th freedom, or is it Japan?

Same can be said for KQ's NBO-BKK-CAN, is it granted by Thailand (Who grant 5th freedom rights left and right anyway), or China?

Now, yes, there are EY's NGO-PEK-AUH and PK's NRT-PEK-ISB-LHE, which is definitely Chinese fifth freedom. I still doubt they would grant 5th freedom for Aus/NZ routes, though, especially when CN3/4/5/6 has a fair presence in the China<->Australia (and to lesser extent, NZ) market. And for TK it makes more sense for IST-PEK-SYD due to the *A presence of CA anyway (or crazier, IST-CTU-SYD).


The US government negotiated the Tokyo fifth freedom rights for Pan Am and Northwest after WWII. The US government had an exceptionally strong negotiating position. Later Pan Am sold their Tokyo rights to United in the 1980's. Delta got their rights when they bought Northwest.

Northwest had the right to fly NYC-ANC-Tokyo, while Pan Am was given the rights to NYC-HNL-Tokyo. It was the noncompetitive JFK-HNL-Tokyo routing that caused Pan Am to get Boeing to build the 747SP in order to start JFK-HND in 1976 and later JFK-NRT nonstop service.
 
TG788
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:39 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
TG788 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Of course, some theoratical 5th freedom like IST-PVG-SYD would never happen (Seriously, there are people that actually believe China would give out fifth freedom rights to foreign carrier?)


Some exist already. EY has 5th freedom rights on PEK-NGO and PK for PEK-NRT. DL has PVG-NRT and KQ operate CAN-BKK.


Kind of a stupid question (I'm just not familiar with the law), who exactly granted the 5th freedom right? In, let say, DL's case, which (was) ATL-NRT-PVG (IIRC...), is China the one that grant the 5th freedom, or is it Japan?

Same can be said for KQ's NBO-BKK-CAN, is it granted by Thailand (Who grant 5th freedom rights left and right anyway), or China?


According to this article, at least three are involved.

The negotiations for fifth freedom traffic rights can be lengthy, because in practice the approval of at least three different nations is required.


Whilst I haven't got access to the book that section references, I do have some current examples. ET is a prolific user of fifth freedom rights to extend their network. At present, their service to MNL goes ADD-BKK-MNL, with no rights on BKK-MNL. This will soon switch to ADD-HKG-MNL, again with no rights on HKG-MNL. KL operate AMS-TPE-MNL with no rights on TPE-MNL.

KU used to operate KWI-BKK-MNL until a spat between the Kuwaiti and Filipino governments with tit-for-tat retaliation ended fifth freedom rights between BKK-MNL. Along with the ET and KL examples, the Filipino government isn't interested in granting fifth freedom rights.

These flights are similar to the DL and KQ examples I posted earlier where China (or Philippines) are the end point, rather than the intermediate point, and it appears those respective governments have a say in whether those rights are granted.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:31 am

The 789, although fine in a low-density config would not be suitable for TK. This route needs a capable aircraft which can take a decent payload of passengers and cargo in a standard configuration, I think the A350 may be better in that regard for this purpose.
Flown to 128 Airports in 48 Countries on 81 Operators. Visited 56 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:31 am

lightsaber wrote:
Doesn't Australia require a first flight to another city?


Most Australian bilaterals (except for those with close partners like the UK and US) apply capacity and/or frequency restrictions to "primary" ports like SYD, MEL, and BNE, but are unlimited to 'secondary' destinations. As noted earlier on in the thread, the Australia-Turkey agreement permits seven weekly frequencies in the first category, so TK can use them as they please, but the more primary ports they use them for, the fewer frequencies they can offer to each.

So, for example, if they go to daily on SYD, any potential expansion to MEL or BNE etc etc would need to be via an unrestricted secondary port unless the bilateral is renegotiated.

Comparable cases are CX going via CNS and QR via CBR.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Kind of a stupid question (I'm just not familiar with the law), who exactly granted the 5th freedom right? In, let say, DL's case, which (was) ATL-NRT-PVG (IIRC...), is China the one that grant the 5th freedom, or is it Japan?


Fifth-freedoms are granted by the intermediate nation but involve the two end-point nations as well. So in the DL example, it is the US-Japan bilateral that grants fifth-freedom rights to US airlines for traffic from Japan to destinations other than the US, but those other destinations must also accept that traffic.

In another example, QF (alongside all other eligible Australian airlines) hold now-dormant fifth-freedom rights from Hong Kong. These are negotiated between HK and Australia, but HK imposes frequency and capacity restrictions on Australian carriers that exploit them. When QF last used them it was to fly MEL-HKG-LHR and return, so on top of the HK agreement the UK government also had to allow it, which is contained in this line from the 2008 Australia-UK bilateral:

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF AUSTRALIA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CONCERNING AIR SERVICES, 10 July 2008, Section 3.2 wrote:
Routes to be operated by the designated airline or airlines of Australia:
Points in Australia – Intermediate Points – Points in the United Kingdom – Points Beyond


This in turn also grants eligible Australian airlines fifth-freedoms from the UK onwards, which would have to be further accepted by those nations.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:35 am

XAM2175 wrote:
Most Australian bilaterals (except for those with close partners like the UK and US) apply capacity and/or frequency restrictions to "primary" ports like SYD, MEL, and BNE, but are unlimited to 'secondary' destinations. As noted earlier on in the thread, the Australia-Turkey agreement permits seven weekly frequencies in the first category, so TK can use them as they please, but the more primary ports they use them for, the fewer frequencies they can offer to each.

So, for example, if they go to daily on SYD, any potential expansion to MEL or BNE etc etc would need to be via an unrestricted secondary port unless the bilateral is renegotiated.
So if it's like that, TK will have to fly IST - SYD daily by way of: CMB, KTM, DAC, RGN, VTE, PNH, SGN or DMK.. wherever it could get 5th freedom and still have frequencies for an IST-PER non-stop.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:48 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
So if it's like that, TK will have to fly IST - SYD daily by way of: CMB, KTM, DAC, RGN, VTE, PNH, SGN or DMK.. wherever it could get 5th freedom and still have frequencies for an IST-PER non-stop.


Having checked DIRDC's latest register of "Growth Potential for Foreign Airlines" it actually looks like Turkish airlines can't exploit the Major/Regional division - Turkey is shown as having seven unused frequencies in total, whereas other countries like Ireland are shown as "Majors (SYD/MEL/BNE/PER): 7 services open, Others: unlimited open".

Accordingly without renegotiation TK would be limited to 7 weekly round-trip flights to Australia regardless of where those flights served.
 
qf002
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:36 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
So if it's like that, TK will have to fly IST - SYD daily by way of: CMB, KTM, DAC, RGN, VTE, PNH, SGN or DMK.. wherever it could get 5th freedom and still have frequencies for an IST-PER non-stop.


Secondary Australian ports. So something like IST-DRW-SYD or replicate QR’s strategy and do a tag beyond SYD to CBR or HBA.
 
FatCat
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:57 am

gokmengs wrote:
Turkish aviation enthusiasts will all confirm there are more than few reasons why this route will for sure happen.
1) TK prides itself on being the airline that serves the most countries
2) New Istanbul airport is being marketed as the super connector airport
3) It will actually work. TK does a good job with transfer passengers, its amazing how many cities are within 2 hours flight time of IST

It is amazing how most of European cities are within 2 hours flight time from another :-)
That's why, I think, most of EU citizens that want to fly down under can take the plane from LHR.
May my post not hurt your feelings
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 146
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:07 am

FatCat wrote:
gokmengs wrote:
Turkish aviation enthusiasts will all confirm there are more than few reasons why this route will for sure happen.
1) TK prides itself on being the airline that serves the most countries
2) New Istanbul airport is being marketed as the super connector airport
3) It will actually work. TK does a good job with transfer passengers, its amazing how many cities are within 2 hours flight time of IST

It is amazing how most of European cities are within 2 hours flight time from another :-)
That's why, I think, most of EU citizens that want to fly down under can take the plane from LHR.


So you want to from Rome to Sydney. I can take, for e.g. EK to DXB and then to SYD - 22 hours. Or I can take a 2 hour flight to LHR, a couple of hours connection and then spend 2 hours to fly back over Italy flying to Australia - maybe 28 hours at best. I know which one I'me taking and this is why the EK partnership works so well.

A 2 hour flight is ok if you're heading in the right direction.
 
FatCat
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:36 am

NTLDaz wrote:
So you want to from Rome to Sydney. I can take, for e.g. EK to DXB and then to SYD - 22 hours. Or I can take a 2 hour flight to LHR, a couple of hours connection and then spend 2 hours to fly back over Italy flying to Australia - maybe 28 hours at best. I know which one I'me taking and this is why the EK partnership works so well.

A 2 hour flight is ok if you're heading in the right direction.


Agree. That's why EK is so successful on flights to Asia and Oceania from Southern Europe.
May my post not hurt your feelings
 
jsfr
Posts: 61
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:36 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:10 pm

And Eastern Europe, and Central Europe.... Heathrow is just completely on the wrong side of Europe for Asia Pacific flights...

Good connections to the US though for the same reason though.

Plus transferring at Heathrow (unless T5 to T5) is not fun - at all.

Add to that - now the UK officially doesn't want to be part or Europe anymore anyway - no idea what that will do....
 
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afterburner
Posts: 1163
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:54 am

planemanofnz wrote:
afterburner wrote:
How about the prospect of IST-DPS-SYD (if Indonesian government allow it)?

It's unlikely, as although EK was granted rights on DXB - DPS - AKL, DPS - Australia is a different matter, as GA flies those routes.

It's unlikely because Indonesian government is unlikely to give the permission, or because the DPS-SYD route is already saturated?
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3374
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:13 am

afterburner wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
afterburner wrote:
How about the prospect of IST-DPS-SYD (if Indonesian government allow it)?

It's unlikely, as although EK was granted rights on DXB - DPS - AKL, DPS - Australia is a different matter, as GA flies those routes.

It's unlikely because Indonesian government is unlikely to give the permission, or because the DPS-SYD route is already saturated?

Both.

Cheers,

C.
 
gokmengs
Posts: 992
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:31 pm

FatCat wrote:
gokmengs wrote:
Turkish aviation enthusiasts will all confirm there are more than few reasons why this route will for sure happen.
1) TK prides itself on being the airline that serves the most countries
2) New Istanbul airport is being marketed as the super connector airport
3) It will actually work. TK does a good job with transfer passengers, its amazing how many cities are within 2 hours flight time of IST

It is amazing how most of European cities are within 2 hours flight time from another :-)
That's why, I think, most of EU citizens that want to fly down under can take the plane from LHR.


Yeah but does any of TK's competition fly to so many secondary cities like TK? Almost every non hub EU pax to Australia has to fly 2 Stops as opposed to 1 stop with TK, that was the angle I was getting at. Or else I know lots of EU cities are within 2 hours flying;)
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