armchairceonr1
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:33 am

Someone got hurt yesterday. Norwegian's short selling -% was 9,23 Wednesday, nice short squeeze :)

https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/
 
Bongodog1964
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:09 am

armchairceonr1 wrote:
Someone got hurt yesterday. Norwegian's short selling -% was 9,23 Wednesday, nice short squeeze :)

https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/


Its nice to see the short selling brigade catch a cold for once, the fact however that 9.23% of Norwegian's shares had been sold in the full expectation that the price would continue to slide shows a large lack of confidence in their business model and that a bid was unexpected.
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:20 am

If precedent is anything to go by IAG would have to offer slots to new entrants on overlapping routes such as LGW-JFK.

If IAG does buy Norwegian it would transform IAG’s presence at LGW. Norwegian has about 40 departures a day at LGW and you can be confident IAG would not want easyJet to get those slots.
 
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JannEejit
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:01 am

LHRFlyer wrote:
If precedent is anything to go by IAG would have to offer slots to new entrants on overlapping routes such as LGW-JFK.

If IAG does buy Norwegian it would transform IAG’s presence at LGW. Norwegian has about 40 departures a day at LGW and you can be confident IAG would not want easyJet to get those slots.


So if it comes to pass, and adding existing LGW slots plus recently acquired ex-Monarch slots, how many would BA/IAG have in total and would there be any serious 'divestage' required by the monopolisation regulations ?
 
Andy33
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:48 am

JannEejit wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
If precedent is anything to go by IAG would have to offer slots to new entrants on overlapping routes such as LGW-JFK.

If IAG does buy Norwegian it would transform IAG’s presence at LGW. Norwegian has about 40 departures a day at LGW and you can be confident IAG would not want easyJet to get those slots.


So if it comes to pass, and adding existing LGW slots plus recently acquired ex-Monarch slots, how many would BA/IAG have in total and would there be any serious 'divestage' required by the monopolisation regulations ?

On the summer 2018 timetables, BA (including the ex Monarch slots) are allowed 35119 Air Traffic movements per week, and Norwegian are allowed 19.918. As EasyJet are allowed 82.203, and that clearly isn't considered excessive because it is already happening, BA+Norwegian at 55037 isn't excessive either. Even if you add in Aer Lingus Iberia Express, and Vueling to give an IAG total, that works out at 63774. Divide by two to get slot pair numbers.
Percentage wise at the moment: Easyjet is 43%, current IAG airlines 23%, IAG+Norwegian 34%.
So divestage likely nil.

Source:https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LGW-SOS-REPORT-S18.pdf
 
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JannEejit
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:20 am

Andy33 wrote:
JannEejit wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
If precedent is anything to go by IAG would have to offer slots to new entrants on overlapping routes such as LGW-JFK.

If IAG does buy Norwegian it would transform IAG’s presence at LGW. Norwegian has about 40 departures a day at LGW and you can be confident IAG would not want easyJet to get those slots.


So if it comes to pass, and adding existing LGW slots plus recently acquired ex-Monarch slots, how many would BA/IAG have in total and would there be any serious 'divestage' required by the monopolisation regulations ?

On the summer 2018 timetables, BA (including the ex Monarch slots) are allowed 35119 Air Traffic movements per week, and Norwegian are allowed 19.918. As EasyJet are allowed 82.203, and that clearly isn't considered excessive because it is already happening, BA+Norwegian at 55037 isn't excessive either. Even if you add in Aer Lingus Iberia Express, and Vueling to give an IAG total, that works out at 63774. Divide by two to get slot pair numbers.
Percentage wise at the moment: Easyjet is 43%, current IAG airlines 23%, IAG+Norwegian 34%.
So divestage likely nil.

Source:https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LGW-SOS-REPORT-S18.pdf


Good information Andy33, I hadn't realised quite how prolific Easyjet were at LGW either.
 
evomutant
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:34 am

Polot wrote:
Yes BA/IB are euro legacies... they get special treatment. Unless the EU wants to play hardball because of Brexit.


I don't see why Brexit would have any particular impact on a Spanish company buying a Norwegian one.
 
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LTU932
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:06 am

evomutant wrote:
Polot wrote:
Yes BA/IB are euro legacies... they get special treatment. Unless the EU wants to play hardball because of Brexit.


I don't see why Brexit would have any particular impact on a Spanish company buying a Norwegian one.
It may have an impact for all airlines on a British AOC (mainly BA), plus the fact that despite being registered in Spain, IAG's HQ is in London.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
Planesmart
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:12 am

I wrote 29 April 2017.

'They do need to be careful their financial performance doesn't attract a certain ME3 airline that likes to play white knight.'

And more will follow, including one of the US3.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:29 am

LTU932 wrote:
evomutant wrote:
Polot wrote:
Yes BA/IB are euro legacies... they get special treatment. Unless the EU wants to play hardball because of Brexit.


I don't see why Brexit would have any particular impact on a Spanish company buying a Norwegian one.
It may have an impact for all airlines on a British AOC (mainly BA), plus the fact that despite being registered in Spain, IAG's HQ is in London.


Still a Spanish company though.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:58 pm

Jayafe wrote:
LTU932 wrote:
evomutant wrote:

I don't see why Brexit would have any particular impact on a Spanish company buying a Norwegian one.
It may have an impact for all airlines on a British AOC (mainly BA), plus the fact that despite being registered in Spain, IAG's HQ is in London.


Still a Spanish company though.


IAG is a large multinational company with its operations and ownership spread around the world. To call it Spanish is a gross simplification just because they have a ‘brass plate’ in Spain. National regulators really struggle with this these days and large companies run rings round them.

Geoff
 
oldannyboy
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Re: IAG Looking into buying Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:11 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
LupineChemist wrote:
This is definitely a surprise development.

Helpful for their UK AOC for activity after Brexit.

There might be some serious competition issues, particularly within Spain. It could also be a bit of a shot across the bow at the Finnish government saying that if they won't let IAG buy AY, then they will compete directly against them.

The 787 order book could be a big help for growing EI and IB (if willing to break the all Airbus fleet).


especially becaus finnair owned DY for a while...

if it goes through then they have to deal with a merger DY +VY ?

I believe IAG is creating a mess for themselves. So, they have Vueling, a fairly successful and well-recognized brand for short-haul, and a new, unknown-to-most brand, Level, for long-haul. Now they will have a loss-making brand with AOCs and subsidiaries in who-knows-how-many countries to integrate into all of this, and try to make sense of it and sell it to the general public.
Have they learnt nothing from their previous tries at go!, Deutsche BA and what not?


Fully agree and concur with you! :checkmark:

I think it's just a very defensive move by IAG in order to do away with the only meaningful long-haul LCC competition that they have at this moment... And precisely on their turf: LGW & BCN. It's a bit of a knee jerk reaction...They got the chance and took the plunge! Maybe WW thinks 'we can't win them on pricing, so let's buy them!' :stirthepot:

Question I am asking myself though: will this be good for consumers in the long term?....... mmmm... :scratchchin:
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:38 pm

I think that IAG made very big strategic mistake for two reason:

1. IAG's move helps DY to got new equity when needed.. Next time investors are more comfortable to give new equity to DY because IAG is knocking the door. DY need new equity maybe in coming months. This also helps DY to keep going which hurts IAG business all the time.

2. They bought share price up by themself. Now they have to bid much more, if they want to get majority of DY.

Well done WW. :D
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:51 pm

Bongodog1964 wrote:
armchairceonr1 wrote:
Someone got hurt yesterday. Norwegian's short selling -% was 9,23 Wednesday, nice short squeeze :)

https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/


Its nice to see the short selling brigade catch a cold for once, the fact however that 9.23% of Norwegian's shares had been sold in the full expectation that the price would continue to slide shows a large lack of confidence in their business model and that a bid was unexpected.

New short positions look like this:

Active positions CSV JSON Position Holder Short Position Short Percent Position Date (dd.mm.yyyy)

BLACKROCK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT (UK) LIMITED 964 812 2,49% 09.04.2018
PARVUS ASSET MANAGEMENT EUROPE LIMITED 801 243 2,06% 23.03.2018
ARGONAUT CAPITAL PARTNERS 187 813 0,53% 30.01.2018
GAM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (SWITZERLAND) LTD LUGANO BRANCH 199 426 0,55% 29.01.2018
Sum 2 153 294 5,63%


Shorters were busy yesterday, they bought about 1,4 million shares back. Next move to stock price is maybe down..
 
RJNUT
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:53 pm

armchairceonr1 wrote:
I think that IAG made very big strategic mistake for two reason:

1. IAG's move helps DY to got new equity when needed.. Next time investors are more comfortable to give new equity to DY because IAG is knocking the door. DY need new equity maybe in coming months. This also helps DY to keep going which hurts IAG business all the time.

2. They bought share price up by themself. Now they have to bid much more, if they want to get majority of DY.

Well done WW. :D


Very intersting POV and not all that far off the mark in certain scenarios. Interesting times ahead , thats for certain
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:04 pm

armchairceonr1 wrote:
I think that IAG made very big strategic mistake for two reason:

1. IAG's move helps DY to got new equity when needed.. Next time investors are more comfortable to give new equity to DY because IAG is knocking the door. DY need new equity maybe in coming months. This also helps DY to keep going which hurts IAG business all the time.

2. They bought share price up by themself. Now they have to bid much more, if they want to get majority of DY.

Well done WW. :D


Don't know how I'm agreeing with you but I see your point.

IAG buying into Norwegian does give them more legitimacy. It sent a message that IAG saw them as a threat that they didn't see going away soon. Otherwise, why buy in? IAG may be positioning itself to be the primary vulture circling to pick the best meat from the bones of Norwegain if does fail. As we all know, any company can fail. How many folks in 1980 would have guessed PamAm would be extinct in 25 years? That senario would be even be amplified if IAG provides capital to Norwegain going forward without really taking over operating it to become a large creditor.

IAG, if it does acquire Norwegain needs to consolidate some brands, Norwegian's long Haul becomes mostly Level, some of it goes to BA and Aer Lingus but I see the need to simplify the bulk of European short haul under a single brand. Sure, It can be a hodge podge of operating certificates but a single name, much like Norwegian is today.
 
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Revelation
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:53 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
It sent a message that IAG saw them as a threat that they didn't see going away soon. Otherwise, why buy in?

I think DY has broken a lot of ground that would be hard for IAG to break on their own, in terms of things like employment practices and use of flags of convenience.

If IAG buys DY they can simply say "hey, this is where the industry is going and we need to be a part of it".

If IAG tries to do similar things on its own, it will get a lot of push back from lots of stake holders who are reluctant to see such changes.

Even if IAG can work through the hassles and blowback and get to a similar place on its own, it could take years to make it happen, and time is money.

Right now some see WW as being foolish, in five years time he may be viewed as a genius.

He'll be seen as stealing a day's march on the race to the bottom.

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BestWestern
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:01 pm

IAG can dismantle the high loss making Norwegian long haul network and use the 787s for its current carriers. The short haul network won’t be changed at all, just integrated into the Vueling brand.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
Galwayman
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:21 pm

I know IAG usually keep individual brands and encourage all of its airlines to compete with each other , but in this case they’re is a strong case for asset stripping and merging into various existing brands
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:30 pm

I suspect IAG will, as it did with Aer Lingus, make certain commitments to keep the Norwegian brand and its offices in Oslo.

The big question is Gatwick. There’s a huge prize and IAG would not want anyone else, in particular easyJet, getting Norwegian’s slots.
 
BlueShamu330s
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Revelation wrote:

BlueShamu330s wrote:
Last time I looked, fares have fallen in real terms constantly ever since the jet engine was invented.

I wish the argument was as simple as that, but I don't want to take us down that path.


:checkmark: Agreed and fair enough; the syntax of the argument is there for another day.. ;)
Flying around India
 
Nola
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:58 pm

ro1960 wrote:
Nola wrote:
Reports indicated that LH was bidding for AZ but that AF/KLM were not.


Apparently "EasyJet Plc, Air France-KLM Group and Cerberus Capital Management LP have made a joint approach to the Italian airline Alitalia SpA about a possible takeover"

https://skift.com/2018/04/10/easyjet-and-air-france-klm-eye-takeover-of-troubled-airline-alitalia/

None of the three confirmed, though.



Interesting. Would DY be a better option? The SkyTeam JV could still increase service to Rome and high volume routes onward while getting a significant opportunity in Britain and maybe a model that would help solve the problems that Hop/Joon were supposed to address.
 
Nola
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:02 pm

armchairceonr1 wrote:
I think that IAG made very big strategic mistake for two reason:

1. IAG's move helps DY to got new equity when needed.. Next time investors are more comfortable to give new equity to DY because IAG is knocking the door. DY need new equity maybe in coming months. This also helps DY to keep going which hurts IAG business all the time.

2. They bought share price up by themself. Now they have to bid much more, if they want to get majority of DY.

Well done WW. :D



Whenever a company amasses a certain percentage of stock in a publicly traded company, the ownership must be disclosed. And, even if they had kept below the threshold, the ownership would have shown up on their quarterly financial statements and annual report.
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:11 pm

Nola wrote:
armchairceonr1 wrote:
I think that IAG made very big strategic mistake for two reason:

1. IAG's move helps DY to got new equity when needed.. Next time investors are more comfortable to give new equity to DY because IAG is knocking the door. DY need new equity maybe in coming months. This also helps DY to keep going which hurts IAG business all the time.

2. They bought share price up by themself. Now they have to bid much more, if they want to get majority of DY.

Well done WW. :D



Whenever a company amasses a certain percentage of stock in a publicly traded company, the ownership must be disclosed. And, even if they had kept below the threshold, the ownership would have shown up on their quarterly financial statements and annual report.

So? I don't understand what you try to tell for me/us?
 
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Revelation
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:28 pm

armchairceonr1 wrote:
So? I don't understand what you try to tell for me/us?

That there's no way to acquire a meaningful portion of DY anonymously, so IAG had no choice but show their hand.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has it's beaches, it's homeland and thoughts of it's own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Nola
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:23 pm

armchairceonr1 wrote:
Nola wrote:
armchairceonr1 wrote:
I think that IAG made very big strategic mistake for two reason:

1. IAG's move helps DY to got new equity when needed.. Next time investors are more comfortable to give new equity to DY because IAG is knocking the door. DY need new equity maybe in coming months. This also helps DY to keep going which hurts IAG business all the time.

2. They bought share price up by themself. Now they have to bid much more, if they want to get majority of DY.

Well done WW. :D



Whenever a company amasses a certain percentage of stock in a publicly traded company, the ownership must be disclosed. And, even if they had kept below the threshold, the ownership would have shown up on their quarterly financial statements and annual report.

So? I don't understand what you try to tell for me/us?



Once IAG acquired more than whatever the threshold is under EU law (probably 4% or 5%), they had to disclose the ownership stake and the purpose of the investment. And even if they had tried to stay below the threshold, the ownership would have shown up as an asset in their financial reports. There's no way for them to keep it a secret and prevent their ownership (or interest) in having an impact on the stock price. Having that kind of stake may get them a board seat and the opportunity to learn financials, expansion plans, etc., so they likely saw some value in buying.

If they hadn't bought any stock, and just made an offer to buy DY outright, the stock would have gone up as soon as the bid was announced. So, again, no way to keep this a secret and prevent the stock markets from raising DY's share price.
 
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LTU932
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:31 am

Jayafe wrote:
LTU932 wrote:
evomutant wrote:

I don't see why Brexit would have any particular impact on a Spanish company buying a Norwegian one.
It may have an impact for all airlines on a British AOC (mainly BA), plus the fact that despite being registered in Spain, IAG's HQ is in London.


Still a Spanish company though.
They still have their HQ in London, which means Brexit will have an impact in some way. Think about it: Why are multinational corporations with their HQ or major offices in London considering to leave the City to move to the mainland? And I'm not talking about UK corporations, but corporations registered e.g. in the US or in the EU.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:23 pm

LHRFlyer wrote:
If precedent is anything to go by IAG would have to offer slots to new entrants on overlapping routes such as LGW-JFK.

If IAG does buy Norwegian it would transform IAG’s presence at LGW. Norwegian has about 40 departures a day at LGW and you can be confident IAG would not want easyJet to get those slots.


What kind of antitrust laws are there on the UK? Why should the UK allow one consortium of airlines to dominate the slots at the two busiest airports in London and the UK? I seriously doubt the SEC and the antitrust division of the US Justice department would allow a merger to result in as much market concentration as this merger potentially would.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:08 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
What kind of antitrust laws are there on the UK? Why should the UK allow one consortium of airlines to dominate the slots at the two busiest airports in London and the UK? I seriously doubt the SEC and the antitrust division of the US Justice department would allow a merger to result in as much market concentration as this merger potentially would.


See post 155, nor BA or DY are dominant at LGW

Andy33 wrote:
On the summer 2018 timetables, BA (including the ex Monarch slots) are allowed 35119 Air Traffic movements per week, and Norwegian are allowed 19.918. As EasyJet are allowed 82.203, and that clearly isn't considered excessive because it is already happening, BA+Norwegian at 55037 isn't excessive either. Even if you add in Aer Lingus Iberia Express, and Vueling to give an IAG total, that works out at 63774. Divide by two to get slot pair numbers.
Percentage wise at the moment: Easyjet is 43%, current IAG airlines 23%, IAG+Norwegian 34%.
So divestage likely nil.

Source:https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LGW-SOS-REPORT-S18.pdf
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:02 pm

Jayafe wrote:

See post 155, nor BA or DY are dominant at LGW


Not yet, but post merger they would have lots more market share. There's only one runway at LGW, so getting good slots isn't easy.
 
Andy33
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:40 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:

See post 155, nor BA or DY are dominant at LGW


Not yet, but post merger they would have lots more market share. There's only one runway at LGW, so getting good slots isn't easy.


No doubt, but as EasyJet already has considerably more market share at LGW than either of them, or even both of them added together, there's no way a competition regulator would get involved A merged BA+Norwegian would still have less market share at LGW than BA has at LHR, and the LHR situation is after competition regulators have ruled on remedy slot transfers.
To put it in context, EasyJet has 43% of slots at LTN. Ryanair has 66% of slots at STN.

And for those posters who say "it wouldn't be allowed in the USA" - surely the very description of a "fortress hub" comes from the US. What percentage share does DL have at ATL, or AA at DFW, for example? These may not be slot controlled airports, and competitors certainly exist there - but try getting hold of enough gates if you want to set up an equally sized operation to the owners of the fortress hub. There's more than one way of keeping heavy competition out of an airport
 
BlueTrue
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:57 pm

It is wonderful reading about this IAG move , you would think it was a done deal. What are the benefits for the consumer in the long term? If IAG succeds, they will want to cancel long haul competition at Lgw and get as many pax back to Lhr as possible. Less choice and higher fares. IAG are only interested in one thing, control and their interests do not always align with those of the paying passenger. BA, Lhr and the big American carriers are a cartel out of London that Norwegian is in danger of breaking. Of course, some of you are so blinded by hatred that you can't see what's playing here.

BTW, those of you so against pilots who have worked for Norwegian, I assume you don't buy cheap imported clothes, electrical goods etc for the same reasons? Hypocrisy.
 
mig21uti
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:33 pm

Galwayman wrote:
I know IAG usually keep individual brands and encourage all of its airlines to compete with each other , but in this case they’re is a strong case for asset stripping and merging into various existing brands


And why? Norwegian LH is a better known brand than Level. I see it the other way around. Bye Bye level. Is cheaper that way. Level is a fantasy name with no AOC and expensive employees compared to Norwegian.
 
jfk777
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:58 am

Norwegian is attractive because of all those 787 and other planes they have on order. IAG buying Norwegian would be about getting rid of a pesky competitor but also acquiring a brand new and large 787 fleet with Rolls engines( like BA'S) for fleet replacement and expansion. Norwegian also has lots of A321neoLR on order which could be great for Aer Lingus and other IAG airlines. IAG could also keep the Scandanavian part of Norwegian for expansion into Norway. Many angles to the Norwegian play but its more about buying assets then buying a airline.
 
KD5MDK
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:30 am

I'm really puzzled why people think Norwegian would be replaced or rebranded as Level when you could just abandon Level and have Norwegian operate in any of these markets you thought needed long haul LCCs.
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:52 am

IAG will keep the Norwegian brand. A strong brand in a region where IAG is relatively weak is exactly what IAG would be looking for.

As for winding up Norwegian at LGW, I wouldn't be so sure. IAG does not favour one brand over the other. If BA wants to take over Norwegian's slots at LGW it will have to prove to IAG that it can make more money from them than Norwegian. That's how IAG works.
 
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Revelation
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:22 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Norwegian is attractive because of all those 787 and other planes they have on order. IAG buying Norwegian would be about getting rid of a pesky competitor but also acquiring a brand new and large 787 fleet with Rolls engines( like BA'S) for fleet replacement and expansion.

Maybe IAG wants DY just for the spare RR engines? :scratchchin:

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BA174
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:31 pm

mig21uti wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
I know IAG usually keep individual brands and encourage all of its airlines to compete with each other , but in this case they’re is a strong case for asset stripping and merging into various existing brands


And why? Norwegian LH is a better known brand than Level. I see it the other way around. Bye Bye level. Is cheaper that way. Level is a fantasy name with no AOC and expensive employees compared to Norwegian.


LEVEL already has its own AOC and employees ready and waiting in the form of the old BA OpenSkies (BA European LTD) AOC from later this year so I hardly think it’ll be bye to LEVEL.
 
VS11
Posts: 1204
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:40 pm

I don’t see any real downside to IAG buying Norwegian. But I do wonder if it will be part of the JV with American Airlines. Not sure if Aer Lingus is either. But if IAG does not fold LGW-based Norwegian, it will essentially be allowing revenue that would have gone to the JV to go only to IAG. How would AA feel about that? For that matter, does the current BA/AA JV include LGW-US routes or just LHR-US?
 
cityshuttle
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:48 pm

IAG, if it does acquire Norwegain needs to consolidate some brands, Norwegian's long Haul becomes mostly Level, some of it goes to BA and Aer Lingus but I see the need to simplify the bulk of European short haul under a single brand. Sure, It can be a hodge podge of operating certificates but a single name, much like Norwegian is today.


That would also be my guess.

I understand that Norwegian is a recognised brand, but it simple makes no sense to keep such a "regional" name not being a legacy carrier. I think that it should operate under the Level brand.

With markets in BCN, LGW, FCO, ORY on intra-EU and TATL routes, a more "independent" name would be the better option. Maybe even let the Vueling brand turn into Level.
 
Galwayman
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:48 pm

Only time will tell I guess ... but DY is strategically all over the place with overlapping and complex structure and a lot of heritage issues for such a new airline .... LEvel has been strategically designed and engineered , even down to the bland brand ...
 
SCQ83
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:41 pm

LHRFlyer wrote:
IAG will keep the Norwegian brand. A strong brand in a region where IAG is relatively weak is exactly what IAG would be looking for.

As for winding up Norwegian at LGW, I wouldn't be so sure. IAG does not favour one brand over the other. If BA wants to take over Norwegian's slots at LGW it will have to prove to IAG that it can make more money from them than Norwegian. That's how IAG works.


I am curious about BA VS Norwegian at LGW. For me it is a big question mark. Will BA production at LGW transferred to Norwegian? IAG tried to push Vueling at LGW but it has been a failure. But Norwegian has a much better brand awareness in London.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:08 pm

VS11 wrote:
I don’t see any real downside to IAG buying Norwegian. But I do wonder if it will be part of the JV with American Airlines. Not sure if Aer Lingus is either. But if IAG does not fold LGW-based Norwegian, it will essentially be allowing revenue that would have gone to the JV to go only to IAG. How would AA feel about that? For that matter, does the current BA/AA JV include LGW-US routes or just LHR-US?


That is a very good question, I too am curious about how much AA's interest is of concern to BA .
Assuming they are happy corporate partners (and I believe this is the case), I can see IAG tweaking US bound routes on Norwegian to try to cultivate new revenue streams, or even something at the expense of the legacy competition, and not cannibalize or depress JV yields.

In fact, if I put on my evil corporate CEO hat, being IAG - I do want Norwegian, and I would seriously consider flying them right into mid US cities where AA doesn't traditionally provide good connectivity and lose out to DL/UA on TATL routings. Perhaps shift some of the existing routes from places like PVD.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:33 pm

BlueTrue wrote:
It is wonderful reading about this IAG move , you would think it was a done deal. What are the benefits for the consumer in the long term? If IAG succeds, they will want to cancel long haul competition at Lgw and get as many pax back to Lhr as possible. Less choice and higher fares. IAG are only interested in one thing, control and their interests do not always align with those of the paying passenger. BA, Lhr and the big American carriers are a cartel out of London that Norwegian is in danger of breaking. Of course, some of you are so blinded by hatred that you can't see what's playing here.

BTW, those of you so against pilots who have worked for Norwegian, I assume you don't buy cheap imported clothes, electrical goods etc for the same reasons? Hypocrisy.


Take heart that loads of us are not in favor of these constant acquisitions and elimination of competition. These threads disproportionally bring out those who seem to fixate on the constant spector of international aviation as business blood-sport.

But don't confuse objective discussion of "what-if" with cheerleading. I don't *want* IAG to buy Norwegian, but if they do, I am curious about what they will do with it, and how it will impact the market.



cityshuttle wrote:
IAG, if it does acquire Norwegain needs to consolidate some brands, Norwegian's long Haul becomes mostly Level, some of it goes to BA and Aer Lingus but I see the need to simplify the bulk of European short haul under a single brand. Sure, It can be a hodge podge of operating certificates but a single name, much like Norwegian is today.


That would also be my guess.

I understand that Norwegian is a recognised brand, but it simple makes no sense to keep such a "regional" name not being a legacy carrier. I think that it should operate under the Level brand.

With markets in BCN, LGW, FCO, ORY on intra-EU and TATL routes, a more "independent" name would be the better option. Maybe even let the Vueling brand turn into Level.


Brand recognition is all a matter of relative perspective. Perhaps its sounds regional within the EU market, but outside "Norwegian" already has a strong, non-regional identity, owing partly to the unrelated "Norwegian Cruise Line" (effectively a maritime legacy) and global perception of Norwegian national prosperity and order (who doesn't love Norway, eh?).

I maintain that "Norwegian" is a strong identity globally, and less divisive than "American", "Air France", "British Airlines" and the others. To me, they've already established themselves as a perceived "flag carrier" outside of the Anglophone/EU world (hold the "flags of convenience" jokes). SAS was perceived as Swedish.

Just throwing that in there. It will be interesting to see what comes to pass.
 
travaz
Posts: 625
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:37 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
VS11 wrote:
I don’t see any real downside to IAG buying Norwegian. But I do wonder if it will be part of the JV with American Airlines. Not sure if Aer Lingus is either. But if IAG does not fold LGW-based Norwegian, it will essentially be allowing revenue that would have gone to the JV to go only to IAG. How would AA feel about that? For that matter, does the current BA/AA JV include LGW-US routes or just LHR-US?


That is a very good question, I too am curious about how much AA's interest is of concern to BA .
Assuming they are happy corporate partners (and I believe this is the case), I can see IAG tweaking US bound routes on Norwegian to try to cultivate new revenue streams, or even something at the expense of the legacy competition, and not cannibalize or depress JV yields.

In fact, if I put on my evil corporate CEO hat, being IAG - I do want Norwegian, and I would seriously consider flying them right into mid US cities where AA doesn't traditionally provide good connectivity and lose out to DL/UA on TATL routings. Perhaps shift some of the existing routes from places like PVD.


Interesting. IAG could use them to stick a thumb in the eye of UA and DL. Flood DTW, DEN, SLC, with cheap TATL options to try and blunt DL UA hubs.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:57 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:

See post 155, nor BA or DY are dominant at LGW


Not yet, but post merger they would have lots more market share. There's only one runway at LGW, so getting good slots isn't easy.


Did you bother reading all of post 155, even merged they are still quite far behind EasyJet.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:56 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:

See post 155, nor BA or DY are dominant at LGW


Not yet, but post merger they would have lots more market share. There's only one runway at LGW, so getting good slots isn't easy.


Did you bother reading all of post 155, even merged they are still quite far behind EasyJet.


But available slots especially those with good times are difficult to get at LGW. Being able to block competitors' expansion efforts at the two largest airports in London is a serious issue. It's an example of why both LHR and LGW both need additional runways. Also BA previously bought BMI and changed its alliance mainly to obtain slots at LHR. Most of the slots were converted for international use to the detriment of the rest of the UK.
 
Andy33
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Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:00 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Also BA previously bought BMI and changed its alliance mainly to obtain slots at LHR. Most of the slots were converted for international use to the detriment of the rest of the UK.


You need to do more research. The formerly independent BMI was bought by the Lufthansa Group as part of a complex deal with Sir Michael Bishop, the guiding spirit of BMI. After failing to make it profitable, they asset-stripped a large part of the slots, which is why Lufthansa Group airlines have the second largest slot holding at LHR, and sold what was left of the airline to IAG in 2012, who merged it into BA.

Of the domestic routes that BMI had operated from LHR this century, this is the situation:
Aberdeen. BA was already flying on the route and still is. Flybe are currently also operating on it using remedy slots made available by BA under a competition ruling.
Edinburgh . Same as Aberdeen
Belfast. BA had given up on the route well before 2012, but now continues to fly it as a route acquired from BMI
Manchester BA was already flying on the route and still is. An attempt by Virgin to operate in competition resulted in massive losses.
Glasgow, Lufthansa controlled BMI cancelled the route in 2011. BA was already flying it and still is.
Leeds-Bradford BMI cancelled it while independent. After the merger BA reinstated the route and it is still operating
Inverness BMI cancelled it while independent. BA has reinstated the route and it is still operating..
Durham-Tees Valley. BMI cancelled it while independent. BA flew from nearby Newcastle and still does.

So lets summarise. By the time Lufthansa gave up on BMI, they had just 4 domestic routes left. All of these are still operated by BA from LHR, and two have competition. ( I don't count Aer Lingus on BHD as they are also an IAG airline)
Two domestic routes that BMI had stopped serving were reinstated by BA from LHR
One route that BMI had stopped serving was still served by BA and continues that way.
One route that BMI had stopped serving had and still has an equivalent BA service from another airport not too far away.

BA had 4 domestic routes from LHR pre-merger. Now they have 8.
 
mig21uti
Posts: 14
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:20 pm

Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:58 pm

BA174 wrote:
mig21uti wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
I know IAG usually keep individual brands and encourage all of its airlines to compete with each other , but in this case they’re is a strong case for asset stripping and merging into various existing brands


And why? Norwegian LH is a better known brand than Level. I see it the other way around. Bye Bye level. Is cheaper that way. Level is a fantasy name with no AOC and expensive employees compared to Norwegian.


LEVEL already has its own AOC and employees ready and waiting in the form of the old BA OpenSkies (BA European LTD) AOC from later this year so I hardly think it’ll be bye to LEVEL.



why kill Norwegian brand if is better than Level? It is already consolidated and flying to many destinations in the USA, with a presence in the market. It is easier to adjust the Norwegian network so as not to step on businesses between subsidiaries (London and Madrid) that transfer planes, repaint them, spend money on marketing to position the brand, etc. Relocating the 4 level aircraft in IB or Air Lingus is cheaper than repainting the Norwegian 130/150, or the 30 in the LH section.
 
748iDEN
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:25 am

Re: IAG considering placing a bid for Norwegian

Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:50 am

mig21uti wrote:
BA174 wrote:
mig21uti wrote:

And why? Norwegian LH is a better known brand than Level. I see it the other way around. Bye Bye level. Is cheaper that way. Level is a fantasy name with no AOC and expensive employees compared to Norwegian.


LEVEL already has its own AOC and employees ready and waiting in the form of the old BA OpenSkies (BA European LTD) AOC from later this year so I hardly think it’ll be bye to LEVEL.



why kill Norwegian brand if is better than Level? It is already consolidated and flying to many destinations in the USA, with a presence in the market. It is easier to adjust the Norwegian network so as not to step on businesses between subsidiaries (London and Madrid) that transfer planes, repaint them, spend money on marketing to position the brand, etc. Relocating the 4 level aircraft in IB or Air Lingus is cheaper than repainting the Norwegian 130/150, or the 30 in the LH section.


I completely agree on that front. DY has a great brand presence that LEVEL simply doesn't have. To me if would make a lot more financial sense to keep the DY Brand and simply grow from there and cut back the flights that aren't making any money. Time will tell however, ultimately IAG could just be buying off a competitor and dismantle DY entirely.

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