I think the bit about shareholders opinion tells us something about how IAG see the structure going forward. It seems that there are some bits of Norwegian IAG really wants and some bits it doesn't want at all.
I don't think it's going to be as simple as short haul/long haul or by aircraft type. I think IAG are going to favour absorbing the bits of Norwegian that support a hub a spoke operation based around key cities. The point to point flying, especially on holiday routes like Majorca and Lanzarote etc I think they will happy for Ryanair to take.
I think they will retain the Norwegian brand but only in Scandinavia. I see them building a hub at Oslo for Asian flights in a similar strategy to building up Dublin for TATL. I see it more as a wholly owned replacement for the Finnair JV than a competitor for SAS.
I think they would be crazy to have the UK airline in anything other than a BA - linked brand. BA LEVEL? They will take all the slots a LGW regardless, no competition issues, its a no-brainer.
I would guess the Irish AOC for Norwegian Long Haul will go under Aer Lingus's wing and maybe become a sort of Euro-LEVEL.
The Argentine AOC I guess logically could go to Iberia, or maybe Vueling is a better fit. I think there is a good chance IAG will see that whole venture as too risky and try and offload it or close it.
Interesting points. I was thinking myself that it won’t be a straightforward split between SH/LH.
What we do know about BA is that they are in need of A320s maybe even some A321s for LGW to fill the ex Monarch slots. We also know, they are short of some LH aircraft at LHR. Open skies or Level in Paris also need new aircraft.
I think what could happen is, Ryanair gets part of the SH network and might sign a deal to take over the rest of the 737 planes once the Airbus fleet (97 planes?) gets delivered. Norwegian will retain its brand within IAG on SH out of key cities in Northern and Central Europe.
Once Norwegian LH is gone I think there won’t be as much pressure for Level expansion. Iberia’s Level A330s will go back to Iberia for expansion or maybe to Aerlingus if they need them more. Some of the 787 will go to Level, the rest remains for BA in Gatwick and a few for Heathrow maybe.
At some point in future I could see IAG to merge Vueling, Level and Norwegian retaining the Norwegian brand for all low cost activities on continental Europe. Vueling’s rep is bad and you can’t pronounce it’s name or don’t know how to anyway and Level is a virtual airline while Norwegian’s rep is actually pretty good.