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ikolkyo
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Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:10 pm

PARIS (Reuters) - Airbus (AIR.PA) has shelved studies aimed at improving its A320neo family, designed to fend off a mid-market jet that Boeing hopes to build, two people familiar with the matter said.

The surprise decision to back away from the proposed “A320neo-plus” and “A321neo-plus,” which would lengthen and modernize both models, comes as Airbus continues to face problems in securing increases in current A320neo output.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN1HH1SS


Curious as to what happens when Boeing launches the MOM.
 
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par13del
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:10 pm

So now we know that Boeing will not be doing the 797....Airbus inside sources have confirmed that Boeing cannot make a business case so it is pointless for Airbus to continue the study, the A321 will reign supreme for another 10 years or so while the MAX10 brings up the rear.
Cool.....
 
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jaehaerys48
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:20 pm

par13del wrote:
So now we know that Boeing will not be doing the 797


Uh, we really don't know that.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:24 pm

par13del wrote:
So now we know that Boeing will not be doing the 797....Airbus inside sources have confirmed that Boeing cannot make a business case so it is pointless for Airbus to continue the study, the A321 will reign supreme for another 10 years or so while the MAX10 brings up the rear.
Cool.....

Huh? Boeing is slow rolling the 797 to ensure a better business case. They have a surplus of cash flow, so they will offer to buy machine tools to reduce unit costs.

Airbus is obviously diverting engineers to production. It is a classy problem to be at high production and being unable to meet demand.

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par13del
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:28 pm

Industrial espionage or whatever it is called.....
 
Flyglobal
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:32 pm

par13del wrote:
So now we know that Boeing will not be doing the 797....Airbus inside sources have confirmed that Boeing cannot make a business case so it is pointless for Airbus to continue the study, the A321 will reign supreme for another 10 years or so while the MAX10 brings up the rear.
Cool.....


Option 1) That is not a completely unrealistic option. It could be that they do a 767 Neo plus, or the 787-8; 787-7 or so instead
Option 2) While they are doing so, do a new Narrow Body design when new engines are available..
Option 3) Airbus realizes that they need to do a revamped 338, better 36x, or better come with a new Family of aircrafts


Flyglobal
Last edited by Flyglobal on Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:33 pm

Probably cold feet from the A330neo experience. Better off designing a new plane and at the same time spam selling the current neos while times are good.
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:39 pm

G'day

Unless I am mistaken or ill informed Airbus is not going to close shop anytime soon. To stay in business and to remain a respected entity they have no choice but to continue further developing their product range to meet future challenges. Be there a 797 or not.

Them stopping further A320 development seems nonsense created by one of those "armchair experts" trying to put "facts" on the net. :crazy:

Cheers

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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:47 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Probably cold feet from the A330neo experience. Better off designing a new plane and at the same time spam selling the current neos while times are good.


Ding, ding,ding. Expect Airbus to debut a new platform to fill in the same space of the 797. This tells me that Airbus is seeing a lot of A321 customers talking to Boeing and realizes, despite the "experts" here
on Anet spending Airbus's money, that a stretched A321 is not going to cut it.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:55 pm

par13del wrote:
So now we know that Boeing will not be doing the 797....Airbus inside sources have confirmed that Boeing cannot make a business case so it is pointless for Airbus to continue the study, the A321 will reign supreme for another 10 years or so while the MAX10 brings up the rear.
Cool.....


Not sure how you read into "no 797" out of that article. Boeing faces difficulties, yes, but no 797? All the public comments from the likes of Delta, Qantas, etc saying they are very interested in a 797 and even Delta adding they want to be a launch customer leads me to believe completely otherwise of your comments. I believe Boeing is keeping the 797 as close to their chest as possible for as long as possible until announcement day.

However, the Airbus action of cancelling the A320neo-plus-plus study just seems like resources vs return potential. They have a tremendous backlog of A320 aircraft and issues with supply chain. They have to put their eggs in the revenue basket to meet current customer demand and fix their supply issues. Seems fairly straight forward to me. Nowhere do I see anything about a 797 "no-go".
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bigjku
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:58 pm

The plus case was always tougher than many here made out and it was always ignored when brought up. You have a 7-8 year backlog you want to clear out smoothly and profitably. You can offer delivery on a short timescale only through deferral/conversions or a further rate increase where suppliers are already nervous. What do you do if a quarter or more of your currently planned builds over the next few years decide they want to defer for 2 years to get it? How much chaos can that potentially put into what you are trying to do?

It was never a simple solution.
 
ap305
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:02 pm

The a320 plus plus with the new wing is not shelved... only the interim aircraft is not being shown to the airlines at this stage.
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voodoo
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:05 pm

Suppliers say this A320neo-plus would also save fuel through better aerodynamics and that the cockpit could get a facelift.

Facelift.... as in C-Series facelift?
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bigjku
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:08 pm

ap305 wrote:
The a320 plus plus with the new wing is not shelved... only the interim aircraft is not being shown to the airlines at this stage.


I still think the same issue applies. If you are an existing customer and don’t desperately need new planes right now why would you not immediately defer the four years or so that the plus plus would take?

It won’t be all the orders but it would be a good chunk of them for many airlines. Common sense suggest that if offered they immediately see what they could to to extend the life of what they have to get what is ultimately a better plane just a couple years later. Particularly if you are going to own the things their whole life rather than just a few years.

Transitioning out of the current narrows will be a very tricky business. This never struck me as the simple plan many presented. The A322-3 plan made more sense as it doesn’t cannibalize things and would cause less industrial problems.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:19 pm

william wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Probably cold feet from the A330neo experience. Better off designing a new plane and at the same time spam selling the current neos while times are good.


Ding, ding,ding. Expect Airbus to debut a new platform to fill in the same space of the 797. This tells me that Airbus is seeing a lot of A321 customers talking to Boeing and realizes, despite the "experts" here
on Anet spending Airbus's money, that a stretched A321 is not going to cut it.


There is no space for two manufacturers to fill in that space with an all-new aircraft. Boeing alone is having a hard time closing the business case.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:39 pm

The 50 A320 Neo by SAS today, makes a perfect example why airbus is shelving the program, Boeing might do the same in the coming months, they sit comfortably in a GIGANTIC backlog of Billions of Dollars.

When Pratt, GE or CFM or even Rolls announce engines 8 to 10% more efficient, they will go back to the drawing board....

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c933103
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:42 pm

So are they going to make a clean sheet aircraft instead?
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:43 pm

c933103 wrote:
So are they going to make a clean sheet aircraft instead?


The article said suspended not cancelled.

There is likely an appropriate time for it but it isn’t with two hundred out of 7,000 aircraft being delivered...
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:45 pm

Erebus wrote:
william wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Probably cold feet from the A330neo experience. Better off designing a new plane and at the same time spam selling the current neos while times are good.


Ding, ding,ding. Expect Airbus to debut a new platform to fill in the same space of the 797. This tells me that Airbus is seeing a lot of A321 customers talking to Boeing and realizes, despite the "experts" here
on Anet spending Airbus's money, that a stretched A321 is not going to cut it.


There is no space for two manufacturers to fill in that space with an all-new aircraft. Boeing alone is having a hard time closing the business case.


Quite likely

Why would Airbus want to make it easier for Boeing to decide on their strategy? If Airbus were to launch the A322/3 then defining what the 797/mom would need to do would be clear and the chances of it being able to do it would be much more readily calculable. Leaving the A322/3 officially off the table creates the uncertainty that doesn't bother the technical people but creates a huge headache for the people who have to put their money on the table. If anything this tells me Airbus aren't scared but want to promote some paralasis by analysis at Boeing by opening more variables and making life difficult.

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mikejepp
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:54 pm

I think what it comes down to is..... if you have a market that

1) Is out of the range of an A321LR
2) Cannot support a B787-8

.... Its probably not worth serving. Theres long and thin and then theres too long and too thin. All the markets that are 4000nm+ apart with less than a 200 pax demand every day don't really need nonstop service. And if they're a special, highly profitable case, fly it with a 788 or 332 and have some empty seats.

Airbus and Boeing want to build airplanes that will sell thousands of copies. The market between A321LR and B788 is... what... 200-300 airplanes?
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:01 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Curious as to what happens when Boeing launches the MOM.


You mean IF :roll:
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:04 pm

bigjku wrote:
c933103 wrote:
So are they going to make a clean sheet aircraft instead?


The article said suspended not cancelled.

There is likely an appropriate time for it but it isn’t with two hundred out of 7,000 aircraft being delivered...

358 is also merely suspended I believe, together with the like of re-engineing 380
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:07 pm

Airbus has to integrate the C series and make a return on its 1$ investment in that programme.

Once that is done, the space above the biggest C series will be clearer than it is now. An updated 320 / 321 may then have a role to play, or may not. The longer they can afford to wait, the better the available engines will be. Once Boeing moves on the MoM, Airbus can move more quickly on the updated 320 / 321 if they want to, as that option remains.

In the meantime they need to churn out as many neos as they can, as efficiently as they can - diverting resource to that seems a good tactical step in current circumstances.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:18 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Airbus has to integrate the C series and make a return on its 1$ investment in that programme.

Once that is done, the space above the biggest C series will be clearer than it is now. An updated 320 / 321 may then have a role to play, or may not. The longer they can afford to wait, the better the available engines will be. Once Boeing moves on the MoM, Airbus can move more quickly on the updated 320 / 321 if they want to, as that option remains.


Is there any reason other than fandom to suspect the C-Series will really be much more than the 717 redux?

And it isn’t just a $1 investment. They have already come out and said the only way to profitably build the plane is to scale production quite a bit. To do that you need lots of sales. Most airlines of size have ordered their narrowbody aircraft already. There are billions that will need to be invested to spin up the line, build and certify a 500 model and sell the several thousand planes they need to sell to make it all make sense.

People seem to totally discount the chance that Airbus is taking a $1 flyer but will be quite ready to avoid losses if the program can’t pull its own weight.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:41 pm

This tells me that Airbus is seeing a lot of A321 customers talking to Boeing and realizes, despite the "experts" here on Anet spending Airbus's money, that a stretched A321 is not going to cut it.


Concur. The A321 is a fabulous machine, but airlines seem to want just a little bit more in some cases - a bit more range, a bit more hot and high performance, etc. What's funny is that Boeing has been pilloried for years for offering more and more stretches and iterations of the venerable 737, yet an A321 stretch would be the exact same thing. Nothing wrong with that, of course, just a funny observation.

Better off designing a new plane and at the same time spam selling the current neos while times are good.


:thumbsup:
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:43 pm

Here comes a vague article from Reuters, based on the say so of two people familiar with the issue. If it would have been Airbus insiders Reuters would have said so.

And the speculative train is out of the station.

If we have a look regarding the facts mentioned in this article:
- Tents, tents have been raise for the needed rework of early A350 frames. Some of them have already been dismantled. Nothing to do with A320 family problems.
- Ramp up of the A350 has been slower than anticipated, but seems to be going better now.
- A320 family ramp up and shift to neo production. The only real problem is shortage of engines. Building of frames is going well, but they stack up while engine deliveries are slow.

I can imagine that Airbus going slow on the A320 family plus or plus plus. But I would assume that this could be an slowing of offering and selling rather than slowing the development. Airbus has in the last years a police to stall declarations, until a project was fully designed.
When the A320 neo was declared, it was ready and not a vague project, like the 797 seems to be for quite a while now.
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ikolkyo
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:45 pm

Jayafe wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Curious as to what happens when Boeing launches the MOM.


You mean IF :roll:


No, I’m quite sure this aircraft will happen. Jon Ostrower is even a record saying “it’s not a matter of, it’s a matter of when”
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:53 pm

Queue up hype for the A390, which will probably launch 15 seconds after the 797. Wonder which big market that considers the number 9 lucky will be heavily pandered to by both manufacturers...
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:04 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Airbus is obviously diverting engineers to production. It is a classy problem to be at high production and being unable to meet demand.

This is what gives off the smell of disinformation, IMHO.

How does shifting engineers from one set of projects that is in design phase to another that is in manufacturing phase help?

It reeks of Brook's Law, adding engineers to a late project only makes it more late.

I thought the new XFW A320 line was said to be state of the art, again not needing design talent to interviene.

So is this:
a) disinformation / information warfare from Airbus
b) management over-reacting/panicing to A32x manufacturing situation
c) indication that A32x manufacturing is in a far worse place than we've been led to believe
d) other?
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bigjku
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Airbus is obviously diverting engineers to production. It is a classy problem to be at high production and being unable to meet demand.

This is what gives off the smell of disinformation, IMHO.

How does shifting engineers from one set of projects that is in design phase to another that is in manufacturing phase help?

It reeks of Brook's Law, adding engineers to a late project only makes it more late.

I thought the new XFW A320 line was said to be state of the art, again not needing design talent to interviene.

So is this:
a) disinformation
b) management over-reacting/panicing
c) indication that A32x manufacturing is in a far worse place than we've been led to believe
d) other?


I think they are being diverted but not into the manufacuring process (unless you are meaning resources are shifted). But Airbus is running into a simple problem. On a 20 year purchase operating cost as are if not more important than your purchase price. If I can get significantly better performance in 2-4 years why not wait?

If you go pitch an improved across the board A320/21 to airlines the first thing many will look to do is defer. Neither Airbus or Boeing can afford to have hundreds of frames going through that. It will create chaos.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:12 pm

par13del wrote:
So now we know that Boeing will not be doing the 797....Airbus inside sources have confirmed that Boeing cannot make a business case so it is pointless for Airbus to continue the study, the A321 will reign supreme for another 10 years or so while the MAX10 brings up the rear.
Cool.....


This is the single most ill-informed opinion I've heard since ''passengers won't mind an 11-abreast A380''. The interest for the 797 is in the hundreds of aircraft, and there isn't even a final design yet. Airlines are swooning for the 797, which can replace both the 757 and 767 with two variants. You can be a fanboy all you want, but lets state facts here. Airbus shelved the neo plus because they knew its economics would be nowhere near a clean-sheet designed specifically for a market the neo was not, and a clean-sheet would be preferable. Expect an A360/A370/A390 soon enough, or as Airbus may put it, the Center of Capacity (CoC)
A350/CSeries = bae
 
Flyglobal
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:15 pm

I believe in a shift of resources to Focus on product and production cost improvements. They may be quite impressed what Boeing has achieved with their 787 cost cutting.

In addition the integration of the C-Series as an Airbus program also may have shifted the needs to rethink the future Setup of both, the C-Series and the A32x Series into two new Airbus programs.

Flyglobal
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:23 pm

They will have seen that a warmed over plane can not compete with the all new 797. Just like the A338 is not good enough to compete with the 787-8. They know they need something to fight the MoM and replace the failed A330NEO and warmed over A321 won´t cut it.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:27 pm

bigjku wrote:
I think they are being diverted but not into the manufacuring process (unless you are meaning resources are shifted). But Airbus is running into a simple problem. On a 20 year purchase operating cost as are if not more important than your purchase price. If I can get significantly better performance in 2-4 years why not wait?

If you go pitch an improved across the board A320/21 to airlines the first thing many will look to do is defer. Neither Airbus or Boeing can afford to have hundreds of frames going through that. It will create chaos.

Yes, this all falls into the information warfare category:
• Avoiding churn in the A32x backlog is a good thing
• Placating customers who are upset because their A32x deliveries are late is a good thing
• Spending engineering resources up front to reduce manufacturing cost is a good thing especially given the huge backlog
• Waiting to see Boeing's NMA offering before you show A320+/++ to customers is a good thing
• So saying that you're shifting resources from A320+/++ to A320 manufacturing is a good thing
• Letting Boeing think you're de-staffing A320+/A320++ is a good thing
• But behind the scenes, no reason to not keep working on a NMA competitor, right?!?

The only bad news scenario would be if they really are concerned enough about A32x manufacturing and reluctant enough about increasing R&D spending that they'd actually de-staff A320+/++.

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neutronstar73
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:28 pm

seahawk wrote:
They will have seen that a warmed over plane can not compete with the all new 797. Just like the A338 is not good enough to compete with the 787-8. They know they need something to fight the MoM and replace the failed A330NEO and warmed over A321 won´t cut it.


This might be a bigger factor than most realize. Many felt that Airbus could get away with knocking on the 787 with the A330Neo and it appears they have bet incorrectly. Even though many said that the A330NEO would be developed "cheap", it still has to sting that the A338NEO is basically dead as soon as it rolled out of the factory, so that is money that was almost blown into the wind. The A339 has a better future, but you have to wonder for how long and how robust. If the 797 turns out to be a great platform, then Airbus knows another A321 derivative likely won't survive long and they'll need a replacement.
 
bigjku
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I think they are being diverted but not into the manufacuring process (unless you are meaning resources are shifted). But Airbus is running into a simple problem. On a 20 year purchase operating cost as are if not more important than your purchase price. If I can get significantly better performance in 2-4 years why not wait?

If you go pitch an improved across the board A320/21 to airlines the first thing many will look to do is defer. Neither Airbus or Boeing can afford to have hundreds of frames going through that. It will create chaos.

Yes, this all falls into the information warfare category:
• Avoiding churn in the A32x backlog is a good thing
• Placating customers who are upset because their A32x deliveries are late is a good thing
• Spending engineering resources up front to reduce manufacturing cost is a good thing especially given the huge backlog
• Waiting to see Boeing's NMA offering before you show A320+/++ to customers is a good thing
• So saying that you're shifting resources from A320+/++ to A320 manufacturing is a good thing
• Letting Boeing think you're de-staffing A320+/A320++ is a good thing
• But behind the scenes, no reason to not keep working on a NMA competitor, right?!?

The only bad news scenario would be if they really are concerned enough about A32x manufacturing and reluctant enough about increasing R&D spending that they'd actually de-staff A320+/++.

Strange, isn't it?


I think the fundamental issue is this. By the time you churn out the deliveries you need to I don’t believe an updated A320 will hold much interest period. I expect the 797 to come in and squat on the top portion of that market and I expect the Boeing/Embraer JV to be the source of a new, light 3x3 narrowbody in a much shorter timeframe than most would suspect.

By the time they eat that backlog Airbus will need an A320neo replacement rather than an upgrade.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:49 pm

neutronstar73 wrote:
This might be a bigger factor than most realize. Many felt that Airbus could get away with knocking on the 787 with the A330Neo and it appears they have bet incorrectly. Even though many said that the A330NEO would be developed "cheap", it still has to sting that the A338NEO is basically dead as soon as it rolled out of the factory, so that is money that was almost blown into the wind. The A339 has a better future, but you have to wonder for how long and how robust. If the 797 turns out to be a great platform, then Airbus knows another A321 derivative likely won't survive long and they'll need a replacement.


The market was already moving from A332 to A333s over the past decade and naturally, the A339 will still continue to be dominant variant sold. Just like the A332, the A338 was never going to be a hot-seller. But can you really say the same thing about the A321? It is the most successful aircraft in its category already and there is no reason not to make it even better.
 
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Byron1976
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:04 pm

May be Airbus guess that after the Neo version, there's no life on it, and they see better to think on a A360 model to match the MOM of Boeing.
(Edit: added text)
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:08 pm

I think some people are missing the essence of the article.

The programs have been shelved. That does not mean they have been cancelled. The amount of R&D that has gone into this is not wasted. The first program was nearing presentation to customers. Airbus has chosen to divert resources to ramping up production (where it's needed), while waiting to see what Boeing decides to do. When that becomes clear, they can pick up the Plus and see if it's good enough to showcase for potential customers.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:24 pm

bigjku wrote:
I think the fundamental issue is this. By the time you churn out the deliveries you need to I don’t believe an updated A320 will hold much interest period. I expect the 797 to come in and squat on the top portion of that market and I expect the Boeing/Embraer JV to be the source of a new, light 3x3 narrowbody in a much shorter timeframe than most would suspect.

By the time they eat that backlog Airbus will need an A320neo replacement rather than an upgrade.

Ok. Others seem to think that Airbus can blunt the NMA without hurting the A320 backlog by building A320+/++ but there's plenty of room for other opinions.

In any case, the article said that A was ready to show the early designs to customers soon, and IMHO that doesn't make much sense.

It makes more sense to ask customers a lot of questions about what they want and use that data to iterate the design, but IMHO there's no need to show any cards at all till after B does.

flipdewaf wrote:
If anything this tells me Airbus aren't scared but want to promote some paralasis by analysis at Boeing by opening more variables and making life difficult.

The notion that they want to avoid churning the A320neo backlog seems to fit the same data points.
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Kindanew
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:42 pm

Interesting developments.

Hopefully this means they are working on a clean sheet widebody MOM of their own which also replaces the A330-200/800 and an optimised A350-800 to replace the A330-300/900.

The A330 platform can live on as a freighter and military jet.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:57 pm

mjoelnir wrote:

If we have a look regarding the facts mentioned in this article:

- A320 family ramp up and shift to neo production. The only real problem is shortage of engines. Building of frames is going well, but they stack up while engine deliveries are slow.
-


How do you know that? The article talks about an internal appeal for the companies best talent to help with A320 ramp up. The article also says production ramp up is not going as well as planned. If the only real problem was engines, why are they bringing resources in to help the ramp up? It sounds like there are more problems than engines potentially with the supply chain consuming resources at Airbus which is partially why they are shelving the Plus for now
 
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par13del
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:59 pm

OA940 wrote:
The interest for the 797 is in the hundreds of aircraft, and there isn't even a final design yet. Airlines are swooning for the 797, which can replace both the 757 and 767 with two variants.

Remind us again how long Boeing has been going on about its new MOM a/c, if so many airlines are interested one would think they would do something by now, after all, it only took AA to make a big order for NEO's and presto, the NSA was gone and the MAX appeared.
I guess it can be similar to the PR around the plastic plane, even Airbus cancelled a perfectly good MK1 because they could not overcome the client's plastic is better mindset....
This may be revised history so............
 
marcelh
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:16 pm

bigjku wrote:
Is there any reason other than fandom to suspect the C-Series will really be much more than the 717 redux?

And it isn’t just a $1 investment. They have already come out and said the only way to profitably build the plane is to scale production quite a bit. To do that you need lots of sales. Most airlines of size have ordered their narrowbody aircraft already. There are billions that will need to be invested to spin up the line, build and certify a 500 model and sell the several thousand planes they need to sell to make it all make sense.

People seem to totally discount the chance that Airbus is taking a $1 flyer but will be quite ready to avoid losses if the program can’t pull its own weight.


The C-Series was enough pain in the *ss for your favorite OEM to try to kill it. I sometimes wonder if you just a Boeing enthusiast or that you are actually working for them at the PR department.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:24 pm

marcelh wrote:
bigjku wrote:
Is there any reason other than fandom to suspect the C-Series will really be much more than the 717 redux?

And it isn’t just a $1 investment. They have already come out and said the only way to profitably build the plane is to scale production quite a bit. To do that you need lots of sales. Most airlines of size have ordered their narrowbody aircraft already. There are billions that will need to be invested to spin up the line, build and certify a 500 model and sell the several thousand planes they need to sell to make it all make sense.

People seem to totally discount the chance that Airbus is taking a $1 flyer but will be quite ready to avoid losses if the program can’t pull its own weight.


The C-Series was enough pain in the *ss for your favorite OEM to try to kill it. I sometimes wonder if you just a Boeing enthusiast or that you are actually working for them at the PR department.


Just someone invested in both Airbus and Boeing who finds the business interesting to follow. I actually have friends who have worked for both in Wichita. Bombardier on the other hand I have had no love for at all.

Airbus will do great focusing on getting the A320neo out the door and milking as much profit while returning as much to shareholders as possible. As a shareholder I would be much happier to see that money either returned or invested in something else than the C-Series. It has set enough money on fire already.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:42 pm

Kindanew wrote:
Hopefully this means they are working on a clean sheet widebody MOM of their own which also replaces the A330-200/800 and an optimised A350-800 to replace the A330-300/900.


Yep, working on the replacement of a wide body with +100 ceo deliveries pending, +200 orders for neo (and as many of potential replacement in the coming years) and which first bird has not even been delivered, with an F and a Tanker version waiting in the closet. Yes, seems likely the current scenario.
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bigjku
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:44 pm

bigjku wrote:
marcelh wrote:
bigjku wrote:
Is there any reason other than fandom to suspect the C-Series will really be much more than the 717 redux?

And it isn’t just a $1 investment. They have already come out and said the only way to profitably build the plane is to scale production quite a bit. To do that you need lots of sales. Most airlines of size have ordered their narrowbody aircraft already. There are billions that will need to be invested to spin up the line, build and certify a 500 model and sell the several thousand planes they need to sell to make it all make sense.

People seem to totally discount the chance that Airbus is taking a $1 flyer but will be quite ready to avoid losses if the program can’t pull its own weight.


The C-Series was enough pain in the *ss for your favorite OEM to try to kill it. I sometimes wonder if you just a Boeing enthusiast or that you are actually working for them at the PR department.


Just someone invested in both Airbus and Boeing who finds the business interesting to follow. I actually have friends who have worked for both in Wichita. Bombardier on the other hand I have had no love for at all.

Airbus will do great focusing on getting the A320neo out the door and milking as much profit while returning as much to shareholders as possible. As a shareholder I would be much happier to see that money either returned or invested in something else than the C-Series. It has set enough money on fire already.


Just to add further...

As an investor I am pleased as can be on the status quo. So long as the A320neo is printing money and Boeing is doing better in widebodies both will turn strong cashflow and earnings and I am quite happy to hold both. What I am watching for as a sign to bail on either is having a poor plan to convert over to whatever follows the 737/A320neo or business decisions that see them directly competing with like for like widebody products that will crush margins. Until then I will happily take my gains and dividends from both entities.
 
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:19 pm

Revelation wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I think they are being diverted but not into the manufacuring process (unless you are meaning resources are shifted). But Airbus is running into a simple problem. On a 20 year purchase operating cost as are if not more important than your purchase price. If I can get significantly better performance in 2-4 years why not wait?

If you go pitch an improved across the board A320/21 to airlines the first thing many will look to do is defer. Neither Airbus or Boeing can afford to have hundreds of frames going through that. It will create chaos.

Yes, this all falls into the information warfare category:
• Avoiding churn in the A32x backlog is a good thing
• Placating customers who are upset because their A32x deliveries are late is a good thing
• Spending engineering resources up front to reduce manufacturing cost is a good thing especially given the huge backlog
• Waiting to see Boeing's NMA offering before you show A320+/++ to customers is a good thing
• So saying that you're shifting resources from A320+/++ to A320 manufacturing is a good thing
• Letting Boeing think you're de-staffing A320+/A320++ is a good thing
• But behind the scenes, no reason to not keep working on a NMA competitor, right?!?

The only bad news scenario would be if they really are concerned enough about A32x manufacturing and reluctant enough about increasing R&D spending that they'd actually de-staff A320+/++.

Strange, isn't it?

I have worked mostly R&D my whole career. But every so often I work a few months optimizing production and then go back to R&D now knowing better ways to design stuff to be made.

I don't consider in misinformation to have the people who design aircraft help accelerate production. They know what can and cannot be changed and the cost to recertify an assembly. Every aerospace manufacturer does this.

You don't change the number of engineers on a project, you shift the focus. Perhaps the engineers designing the A320++ didn't fully understand the capabilities of 3D printing. Just as I learned casting spending a mere six weeks redefining how most of the parts I designed were made. The form fit and fuction didn't change. I then changed how one little part was designed so it was casting, 3D printing, or machining friendly. We cut 90% of the cost out of a part just by making it so no one cared how any detail was made except for 20 cuts. Every other manufacturing tolerance was at least tripled. The parts looked a little funny to those of us used to designing for CNC machining.

Allowing the supply people to bid casting shops against 3D printing changed the bidding game. It also ensures the part is good for late in life support (3D printing was cheaper for small batches, casting for the years thousands are made). Because casting shops plan work 6 to 8 months in advance, it allows a surge in production by good old CNC machine shops when that is all that is available too. For it is worth spending a few thousand more per aircraft to surge production. (Right now 3D printing and casting shops are too busy).

This is what I believe Airbus is doing.

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Amiga500
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:41 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
Concur. The A321 is a fabulous machine, but airlines seem to want just a little bit more in some cases - a bit more range, a bit more hot and high performance, etc.:


Ah, but, the catch is they only want to pay a bit more.

Boeing will have serious issues delivering all that for "a bit more".
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:43 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This is what I believe Airbus is doing.


Makes sense.

Particularly when you consider the more unorthodox shapes that ALM allows.

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