Now that DL has quit PHL-CDG and will be quitting PHL-LHR in early May, will that leave room for AF to come back? Or is it over for SkyTeam at PHL? AA/BA's overwhelming presence makes the PHL-Europe market nonviable for DL but somehow LH continues to march on with their daily PHL-FRA.

Doubt it. Delta was using a 757 and Air France doesn't have anything that small. Philadelphia's not a large market and AA and Lufthansa provide more than adequate coverage.

bagoldex wrote:

Philadelphia's not a large market

Looked up the numbers, and was astonished to see just how comparatively small of an international market that PHL actually is.

Despite being the 16th largest US gateway by int'l pax count, it seems in danger of being taken over by the likes of LAS, which has a similar int'l pax count (3.5million vs 3.7million) but is growing at a faster rate.

PHL is way behind markets like MCO and FLL as well, by millions of int'l pax. Interesting.

usflyer msp wrote:

It is not that small, the local market just has a lot of bleed to to cheaper, non-stop flights from NYC and WAS. If PHL was not 2 hours away from NYC and WAS, its' itnl pax numbers would probably increase by at least 50%.

...which would STILL put it behind the two aforementioned markets at the end.

For a metro its size, PHL's numbers are shockingly low, even considering proximity.

usflyer msp wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

bagoldex wrote:

Philadelphia's not a large market

Looked up the numbers, and was astonished to see just how comparatively small of an international market that PHL actually is.

Despite being the 16th largest US gateway by int'l pax count, it seems in danger of being taken over by the likes of LAS, which has a similar int'l pax count (3.5million vs 3.7million) but is growing at a faster rate.

PHL is way behind markets like MCO and FLL as well, by millions of int'l pax. Interesting.

It is not that small, the local market just has a lot of bleed to to cheaper, non-stop flights from NYC and WAS. If PHL was not 2 hours away from NYC and WAS, its' itnl pax numbers would probably increase by at least 50%.

That would still be abysmal for a city its size but I sincerely doubt there are that many people who drive all the way to Newark and especially Kennedy and Dulles.

In reality Philadelphia is a very poor city that's lucky to have a prominent university and a major air hub.

Based solely on local traffic, what could the region support in Europe, London, Paris, Frankfurt and maybe Amsterdam for connections?

I can remember flying CDG - PHL on an A330 on AF. I thought thought the JV would save the route. Apparently not...I guess they just plan to route via ATL and JFK? I guess the route would be largely O/D for ST? I guess it is proof of AA's fortress strategy in PHL.

usflyer msp wrote:

FLL and MCO have tons of inbound tourism and plenty of VFR traffic to the Caribbean and Latin America so of course their numbers are going to be higher...

I'm aware. That doesn't change the premise of what's being discussed: PHL is an atypically small int'l market relative to its metro.

bagoldex wrote:

That would still be abysmal for a city its size but I sincerely doubt there are that many people who drive all the way to Newark and especially Kennedy and Dulles.

In reality Philadelphia is a very poor city that's lucky to have a prominent university and a major air hub.

I used to wonder why PHL always struggled with the prospect of attracting even hub-hub service to east Asia. Understand now.

AA/BA's lock on PHL means some premium fares. PHL-LHR runs about 1,100 mid summer. JFK-LHR runs 700. That's a 400 difference per ticket. A couple travelling together could easily justify a trip to JFK given you have to pay only $78 to get to Penn Station and back, $5.50 for the subway to Jamaica and back, and $10.00 to take the AIrtrain and back.

$90.00 to save $400. Folks will do that....

bagoldex wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

...........................
In reality Philadelphia is a very poor city that's lucky to have a prominent university and a major air hub................

Lucky ?? Benjamin Franklin founded PENN - a "few" years before anet. The major air Hub has little to do with "luck". It has to do with strategic location and in PHL's case proximity to Europe. International Hubs serve 2 principal purposes, O&D and funneling domestic traffic to international feeds. PHL is the latter. If AA - viewed PHL in the context of "they're lucky they have us", which surely is the case with CLT, and JFK as the golden goose, why are they now de-emphasizing JFK in favor of PHL? It's obviously a strategic decision by the world's largest airline that they can make more $, via the "lucky they have us" Hub, than JFK.

bagoldex wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

Looked up the numbers, and was astonished to see just how comparatively small of an international market that PHL actually is.

Despite being the 16th largest US gateway by int'l pax count, it seems in danger of being taken over by the likes of LAS, which has a similar int'l pax count (3.5million vs 3.7million) but is growing at a faster rate.

PHL is way behind markets like MCO and FLL as well, by millions of int'l pax. Interesting.

It is not that small, the local market just has a lot of bleed to to cheaper, non-stop flights from NYC and WAS. If PHL was not 2 hours away from NYC and WAS, its' itnl pax numbers would probably increase by at least 50%.

That would still be abysmal for a city its size but I sincerely doubt there are that many people who drive all the way to Newark and especially Kennedy and Dulles.

In reality Philadelphia is a very poor city that's lucky to have a prominent university and a major air hub.

Based solely on local traffic, what could the region support in Europe, London, Paris, Frankfurt and maybe Amsterdam for connections?

So it's a miracle that DTW is still a hub with substantial international service? PHL has a lot of bleed to EWR, and a bit to BWI and JFK...not Dulles.

I live 15 minutes west of Philadelphia and have driven or typically take Amtrak up to EWR almost 30 times both domestically and internationally.

It's not all about city centers or directly where the airport is located. There are decent populations in both NJ and PA north of Philadelphia up to Princeton which is an economic center in it's own right. I wouldn't be surprised if much of the travel to/from Princeton is out of EWR. And I wouldn't be surprised if many people who live in those counties north of Philly view EWR as a very viable option, if not their "home airport." Especially if they are right long the New Jersey turnpike.

usairways85 wrote:

bagoldex wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

It is not that small, the local market just has a lot of bleed to to cheaper, non-stop flights from NYC and WAS. If PHL was not 2 hours away from NYC and WAS, its' itnl pax numbers would probably increase by at least 50%.

That would still be abysmal for a city its size but I sincerely doubt there are that many people who drive all the way to Newark and especially Kennedy and Dulles.

In reality Philadelphia is a very poor city that's lucky to have a prominent university and a major air hub.

Based solely on local traffic, what could the region support in Europe, London, Paris, Frankfurt and maybe Amsterdam for connections?

So it's a miracle that DTW is still a hub with substantial international service? PHL has a lot of bleed to EWR, and a bit to BWI and JFK...not Dulles.

I live 15 minutes west of Philadelphia and have driven or typically take Amtrak up to EWR almost 30 times both domestically and internationally.

It's not all about city centers or directly where the airport is located. There are decent populations in both NJ and PA north of Philadelphia up to Princeton which is an economic center in it's own right. I wouldn't be surprised if much of the travel to/from Princeton is out of EWR. And I wouldn't be surprised if many people who live in those counties north of Philly view EWR as a very viable option, if not their "home airport." Especially if they are right long the New Jersey turnpike.

Completely agree, the "market" is severely being underestimated here because of the other airports available near PHL. I'm in that "Princeton" zone 35 min north of Philly (and go to school 10 min outside Princeton) and can say that EWR is by far and away the most popular airport here. I almost exclusively use JFK and EWR, especially for TATL because price is typically less than half (over 5 years, I've done 2 TATL out of Philly for $1500 each (economy) and 7 out of JFK for $450-800). Convenience only counts for so much, and with NJ Transit, Amtrack and the Turnpike running through the spine of NJ, anyone near those options has a good chance of using EWR.

acentauri wrote:

Lucky ?? Benjamin Franklin founded PENN - a "few" years before anet. The major air Hub has little to do with "luck". It has to do with strategic location and in PHL's case proximity to Europe. International Hubs serve 2 principal purposes, O&D and funneling domestic traffic to international feeds. PHL is the latter. If AA - viewed PHL in the context of "they're lucky they have us", which surely is the case with CLT, and JFK as the golden goose, why are they now de-emphasizing JFK in favor of PHL? It's obviously a strategic decision by the world's largest airline that they can make more $, via the "lucky they have us" Hub, than JFK.

Please learn to use the quote feature properly, if you're going to chastise. That's not my statement that you're responding to.

Aside from Princeton and other suburbs 20-40 miles from PHL consider concentric distances from many other airports. How far from BOS, ATL, IAH, DEN MSP to the nearest international gateway, or a smaller domestic city. Yes BOS loses to PVD, but what are the concentric distances of respective catchment areas. PHL loses to EWR BWI as well as AIY ABE MDT domestically. It is not just bleed, but a much smaller catchment area.

cha747 wrote:

Now that DL has quit PHL-CDG and will be quitting PHL-LHR in early May, will that leave room for AF to come back? Or is it over for SkyTeam at PHL? AA/BA's overwhelming presence makes the PHL-Europe market nonviable for DL but somehow LH continues to march on with their daily PHL-FRA.

I tried several times to fare the PHL-LHR/CDG service on DL in C Class and the fares were insane. Double what the EWR/JFK fares were on other airlines. DL was not doing PHL flyers any favors. When AFR served PHL, their CDG fares were much similar to the EWR/JFK fares.

Given that there are airport shuttles from Philly to JFK (and EWR), I doubt that this is coming back ever. Air France on its own metal has almost 1800 seats daily from JFK. on two A380 frequencies (counting the daily to Orly). JFK is about 2.5 hours away.

LAX772LR wrote:

bagoldex wrote:

Philadelphia's not a large market

Looked up the numbers, and was astonished to see just how comparatively small of an international market that PHL actually is.

Despite being the 16th largest US gateway by int'l pax count, it seems in danger of being taken over by the likes of LAS, which has a similar int'l pax count (3.5million vs 3.7million) but is growing at a faster rate.

PHL is way behind markets like MCO and FLL as well, by millions of int'l pax. Interesting.

viewtopic.php?t=1375297
And they call PHL the "crown jewel". What a joke.

crownvic wrote:

cha747 wrote:

Now that DL has quit PHL-CDG and will be quitting PHL-LHR in early May, will that leave room for AF to come back? Or is it over for SkyTeam at PHL? AA/BA's overwhelming presence makes the PHL-Europe market nonviable for DL but somehow LH continues to march on with their daily PHL-FRA.

I tried several times to fare the PHL-LHR/CDG service on DL in C Class and the fares were insane. Double what the EWR/JFK fares were on other airlines. DL was not doing PHL flyers any favors. When AFR served PHL, their CDG fares were much similar to the EWR/JFK fares.

Yeah, DL tends to cater their non-hub international routes to business travelers. PDX-LHR/AMS prices are insane.

FA9295 wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

bagoldex wrote:

Philadelphia's not a large market

Looked up the numbers, and was astonished to see just how comparatively small of an international market that PHL actually is.

Despite being the 16th largest US gateway by int'l pax count, it seems in danger of being taken over by the likes of LAS, which has a similar int'l pax count (3.5million vs 3.7million) but is growing at a faster rate.

PHL is way behind markets like MCO and FLL as well, by millions of int'l pax. Interesting.

viewtopic.php?t=1375297
And they call PHL the "crown jewel". What a joke.

I don’t understand your comment...???

Little to no competition to most markets intl/dom
Price premium over JFK/EWR where there’s a bloodbath of competition
So what part of owning an airport basically, with higher profit margins than the neighboring ones is a joke??

Enlighten me please

Rookie87 wrote:

I don’t understand your comment...???

Little to no competition to most markets intl/dom
Price premium over JFK/EWR where there’s a bloodbath of competition
So what part of owning an airport basically, with higher profit margins than the neighboring ones is a joke??

Enlighten me please

Low O&D numbers (which get the alleged premium fares vs. NYC), then the rest of the cabin filled by junk connecting fares.

usflyer msp wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Rookie87 wrote:

I don’t understand your comment...???

Little to no competition to most markets intl/dom
Price premium over JFK/EWR where there’s a bloodbath of competition
So what part of owning an airport basically, with higher profit margins than the neighboring ones is a joke??

Enlighten me please

Low O&D numbers (which get the alleged premium fares vs. NYC), then the rest of the cabin filled by junk connecting fares.

Connecting fares are not "junk" - it is actually where the money is in TATL lately - The $1400 DAY-CDG passenger is much more profitable than the $500 JFK-CDG passenger.

Im not getting into specific PHL stuff, but if your theory was correct, CVG/PIT/STL would all be thriving hubs.

It is a 1980s mentality.

It works for PHL. It has a coastal location and is in the I 95 population corridor.

But dont ever think a connecting hub with low O and D in the United States is a good thing. We have been there, done that.

PHL is the poorest big city in the country, but they is still plenty of demand here (which is seeing population boom from higher earning adults moving into gentrified areas) and 5 county area. I've not once flown internationally from Philly- there's no point when you are a 1.5hr train ride to BWI or 1hr+ EWR. I've even driven (much to my chagrin) to JFK and IAD which can take forever, but was still worth it despite the gas/tolls/parking over the limited and expensive options from PHL. My last international trips were from IAD, BWI, DCA (to San Juan, so technically not international), EWR and JFK. Philly has the misfortune of being half way between DC and NYC which each have 3 airports compared to our one. For the savvy flyer here in my city, they will have many options that often utilize other gateways.

PHL has lower O&D numbers than the likes of EWR, JFK, ORD, BOS, etc. but they aren't that low. And it's not all about O&D it's also about competition. By and large whether it was US or now AA, they cornered much of the market at the right ratio to prevent many competitors coming in. JFK has exponentially more O&D, but it also has exponentially more competitors.

jfklganyc wrote:

dont ever think a connecting hub with low O and D in the United States is a good thing

By all accounts AA most profitable hub has by far the lowest O/D.

PHL9R wrote:

PHL is the poorest big city in the country, but they is still plenty of demand here (which is seeing population boom from higher earning adults moving into gentrified areas) and 5 county area. I've not once flown internationally from Philly- there's no point when you are a 1.5hr train ride to BWI or 1hr+ EWR. I've even driven (much to my chagrin) to JFK and IAD which can take forever, but was still worth it despite the gas/tolls/parking over the limited and expensive options from PHL. My last international trips were from IAD, BWI, DCA (to San Juan, so technically not international), EWR and JFK. Philly has the misfortune of being half way between DC and NYC which each have 3 airports compared to our one. For the savvy flyer here in my city, they will have many options that often utilize other gateways.

I don't think PHL is the poorest big city in the country. If you count DTW as a big city, then Detroit is poorer than PHL and may be the poorest big city in the country. And if connections are main draw for PHL, there is competition there too, for example DAY to LHR - can be done by UA, DL or AA, so AA cannot charge high fares unless all three charge the similar air fares.

Adding additional perspectives:

PHL 2017 total pax: 29,585,754
PHL 2017 international pax: 4,004,753
PHL 2017 international pax as a % of total pax: 13.54%
International pax ranking in the category of very large and large hubs: 15
AA PHL overall market share: ~ 45% (WN is a distant 2nd)
AA JFK standing: 3 (solid competition from DL and B6)

PHL MSA per capita income standing: 43 as per 2013 census - Detroit is not very far off: 47
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... ita_income

So, the perspective of PHL being relatively poor compared to BOS is indeed true but AA is banking on the fact that they have a large MSA with a pretty diverse population and potentially spillover from NJ area as good factors. IMO, it is common for people in PHL area to shop for cheaper flights to EWR or potentially JFK but rarely have I seen NYC customers drive down to PHL for a flight.

DL is rebuilding a solid operation in BOS and starting June-2019, there will be serious adds from and to BOS once they get the complete Terminal A. They maybe better off focusing operations in BOS similar to what AA did in 2017 - gradually retrench operations from BOS in the wake of competition for non-hub flights to focus at PHL.

PHL9R wrote:

PHL is the poorest big city in the country, but they is still plenty of demand here (which is seeing population boom from higher earning adults moving into gentrified areas) and 5 county area.

Growth west of PHL in areas all the way to Downingtown exit of PA Turnpike should help PHL, as these residents of these areas will find EWR too far.

I can't compare to Detroit, but the PHL region certainly has poor areas inside the city and satellite cities like Camden, Wilmington and Atlantic City, all in different states, are poor. Most of South Jersey and Delaware is atypical to the rest of the Northeast.

hohd wrote:

PHL9R wrote:

PHL is the poorest big city in the country, but they is still plenty of demand here (which is seeing population boom from higher earning adults moving into gentrified areas) and 5 county area. I've not once flown internationally from Philly- there's no point when you are a 1.5hr train ride to BWI or 1hr+ EWR. I've even driven (much to my chagrin) to JFK and IAD which can take forever, but was still worth it despite the gas/tolls/parking over the limited and expensive options from PHL. My last international trips were from IAD, BWI, DCA (to San Juan, so technically not international), EWR and JFK. Philly has the misfortune of being half way between DC and NYC which each have 3 airports compared to our one. For the savvy flyer here in my city, they will have many options that often utilize other gateways.

I don't think PHL is the poorest big city in the country. If you count DTW as a big city, then Detroit is poorer than PHL and may be the poorest big city in the country. And if connections are main draw for PHL, there is competition there too, for example DAY to LHR - can be done by UA, DL or AA, so AA cannot charge high fares unless all three charge the similar air fares.

It is. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/phila ... 70914.html

I think it's just a proximity issue. For O&D traffic, we Philadelphians have a slew of options besides PHL. If you are connecting through PHL, than obviously a bit different.

phluser wrote:

PHL9R wrote:

PHL is the poorest big city in the country, but they is still plenty of demand here (which is seeing population boom from higher earning adults moving into gentrified areas) and 5 county area.

Growth west of PHL in areas all the way to Downingtown exit of PA Turnpike should help PHL, as these residents of these areas will find EWR too far.

I can't compare to Detroit, but the PHL region certainly has poor areas inside the city and satellite cities like Camden, Wilmington and Atlantic City, all in different states, are poor. Most of South Jersey and Delaware is atypical to the rest of the Northeast.

Agreed. The US-30 corridor is experiencing steady growth and their options are a bit more limited although BWI is not that far of a drive the closer you are to Lancaster.

PHL9R wrote:

phluser wrote:

PHL9R wrote:

PHL is the poorest big city in the country, but they is still plenty of demand here (which is seeing population boom from higher earning adults moving into gentrified areas) and 5 county area.

Growth west of PHL in areas all the way to Downingtown exit of PA Turnpike should help PHL, as these residents of these areas will find EWR too far.

I can't compare to Detroit, but the PHL region certainly has poor areas inside the city and satellite cities like Camden, Wilmington and Atlantic City, all in different states, are poor. Most of South Jersey and Delaware is atypical to the rest of the Northeast.

Agreed. The US-30 corridor is experiencing steady growth and their options are a bit more limited although BWI is not that far of a drive the closer you are to Lancaster.

BWI is quite a hike from even the western suburbs, though. Downingtown (let's call it the first Philly region exit on the PA Turnpike) to BWI is 93.6 miles. Further west, Reading is closer to PHL not BWI. Some go to BWI if they like Southwest a lot, or if a bargain basement fare can be found down there, but I'd be surprised if it's worth most people's time.

Getting into Lancaster County is outside of the Philly market. However, it has Keystone Amtrak to 30th Street, and a quick change of trains and in some ways better connectivity to PHL over BWI. Once one is out into Lancaster Co., it's the MDT market, so shouldn't be included in PHL's primary region.

It's a matter if time before the southern service area of SEPTA, including Wilmington, joins the BWI catchment. The famous (in commuter rail circles) NE Corridor 20 mile gap will close.
http://www.wilmapco.org/Council/MARC_SEPTA-9-17.pdf

PHL is not by any measure a small market.

PHL is covered extremely well by AA to almost every major city in Europe at this point. The problem is AA can offer a N/S for almost all business travellers or people who will pay a premium for a N/S everyone else will fly the cheapest and connect. PHL is just well covered especially with all those AA jfl flights shifting over.

WPvsMW wrote:

It's a matter if time before the southern service area of SEPTA, including Wilmington, joins the BWI catchment. The famous (in commuter rail circles) NE Corridor 20 mile gap will close.
http://www.wilmapco.org/Council/MARC_SEPTA-9-17.pdf

Not really. This connection already exists via Amtrak from Wilmington to BWI and is somewhat reasonably priced, more so than PHL-EWR. Marc will be slower. The few Marc trains that actually make it all the way out to Perryville take 75 minutes from BWI. If Marc made it up to Newark, I imagine it will be no faster than 90 minutes.

bagoldex wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

Looked up the numbers, and was astonished to see just how comparatively small of an international market that PHL actually is.

Despite being the 16th largest US gateway by int'l pax count, it seems in danger of being taken over by the likes of LAS, which has a similar int'l pax count (3.5million vs 3.7million) but is growing at a faster rate.

PHL is way behind markets like MCO and FLL as well, by millions of int'l pax. Interesting.

It is not that small, the local market just has a lot of bleed to to cheaper, non-stop flights from NYC and WAS. If PHL was not 2 hours away from NYC and WAS, its' itnl pax numbers would probably increase by at least 50%.

That would still be abysmal for a city its size but I sincerely doubt there are that many people who drive all the way to Newark and especially Kennedy and Dulles.

In reality Philadelphia is a very poor city that's lucky to have a prominent university and a major air hub.

Based solely on local traffic, what could the region support in Europe, London, Paris, Frankfurt and maybe Amsterdam for connections?

Then you are clueless because there are people in my market who will drive 3 and 4 hours to save a couple hundred bucks.

usairways85 wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

It's a matter if time before the southern service area of SEPTA, including Wilmington, joins the BWI catchment. The famous (in commuter rail circles) NE Corridor 20 mile gap will close.
http://www.wilmapco.org/Council/MARC_SEPTA-9-17.pdf

Not really. This connection already exists via Amtrak from Wilmington to BWI and is somewhat reasonably priced, more so than PHL-EWR. Marc will be slower. The few Marc trains that actually make it all the way out to Perryville take 75 minutes from BWI. If Marc made it up to Newark, I imagine it will be no faster than 90 minutes.

The Acela from WIL to BWI is great, but infrequent. Avelia Liberty will be even more attractive, but still infrequent. MARC, as distinct from Amtrak, will add frequency, and therefore ridership.

TMK, the only MARC Express is a daily NB to Balto. Penn Stn.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinio ... story.html
I think MARC Express will be key to improving BWI catchment from Delaware, and even from S. Philly for pax who aren't AA captives.

WingsOfLove wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

dont ever think a connecting hub with low O and D in the United States is a good thing

By all accounts AA most profitable hub has by far the lowest O/D.

Great location, rapidly growing city, thriving banking center, low airport costs, cheap place to do business.

Charlotte is a great hub with a bright future.

People leave places like Pennsylvania New York and Illinois to move to places like North Carolina

Without looking at that factor in terms of this conversation you’re looking in a vacuum.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

AA can offer a N/S for almost all business travellers or people who will pay a premium

That is right. PHL is just far enough, business and less price sensitive fliers are willing to pay a premium for convenience. Connections fill the rest of the plane with higher yields, than trying to chase after price sensitive O/D by matching EWR/JFK fares.

WingsOfLove wrote:

Connections fill the rest of the plane with higher yields, than trying to chase after price sensitive O/D by matching EWR/JFK fares.

...based on what? How would you have any idea what the relative yield is for either ex that hub?

LAX772LR wrote:

WingsOfLove wrote:

Connections fill the rest of the plane with higher yields, than trying to chase after price sensitive O/D by matching EWR/JFK fares.

...based on what? How would you have any idea what the relative yield is for either ex that hub?

Why would AA cut JFK flights and add to PHL if they could make more money there?

B747forever wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

WingsOfLove wrote:

Connections fill the rest of the plane with higher yields, than trying to chase after price sensitive O/D by matching EWR/JFK fares.

...based on what? How would you have any idea what the relative yield is for either ex that hub?

Why would AA cut JFK flights and add to PHL if they could make more money there?

That doesn't answer my question at all, but to address yours:

For any number of reasons; none of which would be known to the public, but my best guess would be lower cost of enplanement per pax, as a primary motive.

B747forever wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

WingsOfLove wrote:

Connections fill the rest of the plane with higher yields, than trying to chase after price sensitive O/D by matching EWR/JFK fares.

...based on what? How would you have any idea what the relative yield is for either ex that hub?

Why would AA cut JFK flights and add to PHL if they could make more money there?

The exact reasons will be known only to AA management but we can make some hypothesis which may or may not be true. We have discussed the key points and trying to summarize that.

1. Excessive competition from DL and B6 and AA is placed 3rd at JFK - there is a little chance that AA is going to be 2nd as has been the case since a longtime.
2. AA owns 45% of PHL market - WN is placed 2nd and has ~ 9% of market share. PHL is not going to JFK but it is good to be a large fish in a small pond than being a smaller fish in a large sea and lose money. AA probably knows business rich passengers from BOS, NYC may or may not take PHL connections but there is still a decently large enough pool in PHL to fill up the plane.
3. Please see the article by Vasu Raja that talks about AA strategy - search for JFK:
https://skift.com/2018/02/12/american-a ... g-flights/
4. As long as AA has a codeshare with BA, IB - BA is ranked 4th in JFK after AA there is a decent share for AA to continue to make their presence felt in NYC.
5. AA tends to do well where they have a majority in the market - they do not follow the DL model who is willing to rake up losses as they build their operations in cities (BOS, SEA) with the aim that they have a market. DL has a solid market share in their fortress hubs - ATL, DTW, MSP, - they can afford to chase new markets which is not the case with AA.

Hopefully I covered all the points that we have discussed in multiple threads.

jfklganyc wrote:

WingsOfLove wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

dont ever think a connecting hub with low O and D in the United States is a good thing

By all accounts AA most profitable hub has by far the lowest O/D.

Great location, rapidly growing city, thriving banking center, low airport costs, cheap place to do business.

Charlotte is a great hub with a bright future.

People leave places like Pennsylvania New York and Illinois to move to places like North Carolina

Without looking at that factor in terms of this conversation you’re looking in a vacuum.

Philadelphia's metro has a higher per capita GDP than Charlotte: https://www.statista.com/statistics/248 ... etro-area/

Charlotte is growing (so is Philadelphia) but Philly is still a much larger economic powerhouse, and even a stronger business market with higher economic output on a per capita basis.

Totally IMHO, but I'm gonna say Philadelphia is situated in a much better location than Charlotte. Philadelphia is only a couple hours from the biggest city in the U.S., the nation's capitol, beaches and mountains.

www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2018/02/28/full-list-americas-fastest-growing-cities-2018/amp/

CLT, RDU...no Philly.

[quotehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Philadelphia][/quote]

Philly has been in decline for 50 years.

And, yes, those are city numbers not metro area numbers.

Nothing spells a thriving metro area like a city core that had a higher population in 1920 then it does now .

WPvsMW wrote:

usairways85 wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

It's a matter if time before the southern service area of SEPTA, including Wilmington, joins the BWI catchment. The famous (in commuter rail circles) NE Corridor 20 mile gap will close.
http://www.wilmapco.org/Council/MARC_SEPTA-9-17.pdf

Not really. This connection already exists via Amtrak from Wilmington to BWI and is somewhat reasonably priced, more so than PHL-EWR. Marc will be slower. The few Marc trains that actually make it all the way out to Perryville take 75 minutes from BWI. If Marc made it up to Newark, I imagine it will be no faster than 90 minutes.

The Acela from WIL to BWI is great, but infrequent. Avelia Liberty will be even more attractive, but still infrequent. MARC, as distinct from Amtrak, will add frequency, and therefore ridership.

TMK, the only MARC Express is a daily NB to Balto. Penn Stn.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinio ... story.html
I think MARC Express will be key to improving BWI catchment from Delaware, and even from S. Philly for pax who aren't AA captives.

This is indeed the only express, and the only reason it exists is for MARC to reposition that trainset to Baltimore for the morning south bound trains. MARC does not have the locomotives to add more trains either north or south, and expresses and Wilmington services are farther away than you think. Here's why.
MARC and Amtrak are at loggerheads for the past year and a half. The problem is, the tracks from PHL all the way to WAS are saturated already. Maryland went and bought slower diesel locomotives to run on the one fully electrified Intercity line in the US, and they keep slowing down Amtrak's faster services. Amtrak's dispatchers are upset, and so they relegate MARC services to a much lower priority, delaying them frequently. So that time estimate someone gave upthread is not what happens on a daily basis. Until track capacity is increased, Amtrak isn't going to let MARC add service. The only way I see this happening is if Maryland does one of two things: pony up and buy some electric locomotives (which they will not do), or they give the next operating contract to Amtrak (currently with Bombardier).

So are the largest cities - DC/Virginia belt, SFO/SJC, BOS, NYC etc. are not there. Are you saying that these cities are all going to be in decline vs. cities that are listed in ? These cities I have listed are already powerhouses in many dimensions and after a while there is a level of saturation. Cities like BOS, SFO are expensive because demand outstrips supply and there is only so much of new construction and land available. There are multiple reasons why people leave a city and it also depends on career opportunities and future prospects. There are multiple dimensions - Forbes magazine is itself headquartered in NYC and not in any of the cities listed . Unless one fine day, MIT, Harvard, or say Stanford decided to close their current operations and chose to relocate to Boise, or Charlotte - which IMO is not going to happen