Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
tphuang wrote:2) strong move on JFK-SEA. The 3rd daily appears to be only for summer, but they have at least comparable schedule to B6 and better one than AA. My guess is AA is going to get pushed out in a year.
iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
B6 BOS-SJC LF: 81.30% (it's pretty good and they have been flying solo on this route. Knock knock DL )
B6 JFK-SJC LF: 84.56% (this is not a Mint route). AS sees an opportunity here and comparatively a standard B6 product to poach and chase.
tphuang wrote:I have no idea how JFK-SJC is going to work.
DDR wrote:iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
B6 BOS-SJC LF: 81.30% (it's pretty good and they have been flying solo on this route. Knock knock DL )
B6 JFK-SJC LF: 84.56% (this is not a Mint route). AS sees an opportunity here and comparatively a standard B6 product to poach and chase.
So how long until JFK-SJC does become a Mint route?
GSPSPOT wrote:iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
If onboard food & bev are elevated from standard F fare on AS and the price is right, I know that I would be only too happy to give them a try.
FA9295 wrote:I wonder if AS will soon make their PDX-JFK route a early morning departure. The red-eye flight is a pain to have to deal with, and a early morning flight schedule would be much preferred in my opinion. Plus B6 and DL both already operate red-eye PDX-JFK flights.
iflykpdx wrote:Surprised we didn't see AS launch SJC-BOS before JFK. At least then they'd only have B6 as competition vs DL/B6. A non-redeye to BOS would be welcome.
FA9295 wrote:Didn't Delta just recently add JFK-SJC?
aemoreira1981 wrote:I’m surprised that the SEA flight is on Airbus metal rather than a B739 that their red eye runs on. Also surprised to see SJC before SAN, although SAN is available from Newark. With the timing of flights though, it’s clear that they’re targeting connections at T7 at JFK and not just O&D, especially with a higher yield SJC flight. There, I suspect that an SFO flight could move to SJC.
OKCDCA wrote:They've made it very clear the Airbus fleet would be moving off the transcons and doing more North/South flights. Maybe somebody with some more knowledge on the situation can explain...
OKCDCA wrote:aemoreira1981 wrote:I’m surprised that the SEA flight is on Airbus metal rather than a B739 that their red eye runs on. Also surprised to see SJC before SAN, although SAN is available from Newark. With the timing of flights though, it’s clear that they’re targeting connections at T7 at JFK and not just O&D, especially with a higher yield SJC flight. There, I suspect that an SFO flight could move to SJC.
I agree this is interesting. They've made it very clear the Airbus fleet would be moving off the transcons and doing more North/South flights. Maybe somebody with some more knowledge on the situation can explain...
hiflyeras wrote:AS has expanded so much out of SJC that I'm sure the growing Mileage Plan/AS Visa customer base is there to support this new route. I think they're both sustainable...great connection opportunities out of either as well as point-to-point. And would love to see SAN added...maybe in the fall?
SANFan wrote:All my yacking for the last week or 2 about JFK and a new nonstop transcon.... What a shock; call me baffled and disappointed with Alaska. But that's just me.
Plus, both of these new flights are prime (west coast) timing -- early morning w/c departures and evening returns, using valuable JFK slots I assume. No red-eye nonsense.
Oh well, c'est la vie.
bb
FA9295 wrote:DDR wrote:iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
B6 BOS-SJC LF: 81.30% (it's pretty good and they have been flying solo on this route. Knock knock DL )
B6 JFK-SJC LF: 84.56% (this is not a Mint route). AS sees an opportunity here and comparatively a standard B6 product to poach and chase.
So how long until JFK-SJC does become a Mint route?
I'm pretty sure that's in B6's near future. With that being said, some people on this thread have stated that B6 has not been performing very well on their JFK-SJC route. I'm not really sure as to why they would think that, though. If the route was under-performing, they would not be operating it (would have ended it a long time ago).
AS has expanded so much out of SJC that I'm sure the growing Mileage Plan/AS Visa customer base is there to support this new route. I think they're both sustainable...great connection opportunities out of either as well as point-to-point. And would love to see SAN added...maybe in the fall?
GSPSPOT wrote:iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
If onboard food & bev are elevated from standard F fare on AS and the price is right, I know that I would be only too happy to give them a try.
AirFiero wrote:SANFan wrote:All my yacking for the last week or 2 about JFK and a new nonstop transcon.... What a shock; call me baffled and disappointed with Alaska. But that's just me.
Plus, both of these new flights are prime (west coast) timing -- early morning w/c departures and evening returns, using valuable JFK slots I assume. No red-eye nonsense.
Oh well, c'est la vie.
bb
How many flights and airlines currently on SAN-JFK?
How many flights on how many airlines fly SFO-JFK? How many people are closer to SJC?
Also, the bay area is a different market from SAN. It is probably not realistic to try to compare them directly.
SonaSounds wrote:AirFiero wrote:SANFan wrote:All my yacking for the last week or 2 about JFK and a new nonstop transcon.... What a shock; call me baffled and disappointed with Alaska. But that's just me.
Plus, both of these new flights are prime (west coast) timing -- early morning w/c departures and evening returns, using valuable JFK slots I assume. No red-eye nonsense.
Oh well, c'est la vie.
bb
How many flights and airlines currently on SAN-JFK?
How many flights on how many airlines fly SFO-JFK? How many people are closer to SJC?
Also, the bay area is a different market from SAN. It is probably not realistic to try to compare them directly.
For July 2018...
SFO has ~41 flights a day to JFK/EWR
SAN has ~14 flights a day to JFK/EWR
SJC has ~4 flights a day to JFK/EWR
SJC should easily be able to support more than 4 flights a day if they can convince the millions of people that live closer to SJC than SFO to fly SJC.
jfklganyc wrote:Looks like they are going to give B6 a run for their money.
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2018-04- ... tle-flight
tphuang wrote:FA9295 wrote:DDR wrote:
So how long until JFK-SJC does become a Mint route?
I'm pretty sure that's in B6's near future. With that being said, some people on this thread have stated that B6 has not been performing very well on their JFK-SJC route. I'm not really sure as to why they would think that, though. If the route was under-performing, they would not be operating it (would have ended it a long time ago).
JFK-SJC has about the second lowest fare numbers amongst B6 transcon out of JFK (with only SEA worse) and that was before there was any competition. Now there are 3 carriers. There are going to be some terrible numbers coming out later this year. Not getting mint imo.
EWR-SJC is AS's lowest yielding EWR transcon (one of the worst system wide). You can see why I think this JFK-SJC flight isn't going to do well.
JFK-SAN even with the flat bed competition should be a higher yielding route.AS has expanded so much out of SJC that I'm sure the growing Mileage Plan/AS Visa customer base is there to support this new route. I think they're both sustainable...great connection opportunities out of either as well as point-to-point. And would love to see SAN added...maybe in the fall?
you do realize SJC is a very low yielding station for AS, right?GSPSPOT wrote:iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
If onboard food & bev are elevated from standard F fare on AS and the price is right, I know that I would be only too happy to give them a try.
Here is thing. On most routes, mint and AS F pricing are about the same unless you are an AS elite ff.
berari wrote:jfklganyc wrote:Looks like they are going to give B6 a run for their money.
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2018-04- ... tle-flight
Much ado about nothing. Why pick on the one airline that has the lowest number of frequency on the route when AA flies 3x and DL flies 6x per day?
B6 still provides a boutique service on the SEA-JFK run, granted not the best performing route for B6 (it has maintained a single daily rotation since forever.) It does offer a better product than AS, and if flying overnight out of SEA, and if fares are similar, the choice is clear.
OKCDCA wrote:aemoreira1981 wrote:I’m surprised that the SEA flight is on Airbus metal rather than a B739 that their red eye runs on. Also surprised to see SJC before SAN, although SAN is available from Newark. With the timing of flights though, it’s clear that they’re targeting connections at T7 at JFK and not just O&D, especially with a higher yield SJC flight. There, I suspect that an SFO flight could move to SJC.
I agree this is interesting. They've made it very clear the Airbus fleet would be moving off the transcons and doing more North/South flights. Maybe somebody with some more knowledge on the situation can explain...
SonaSounds wrote:AirFiero wrote:SANFan wrote:All my yacking for the last week or 2 about JFK and a new nonstop transcon.... What a shock; call me baffled and disappointed with Alaska. But that's just me.
Plus, both of these new flights are prime (west coast) timing -- early morning w/c departures and evening returns, using valuable JFK slots I assume. No red-eye nonsense.
Oh well, c'est la vie.
bb
How many flights and airlines currently on SAN-JFK?
How many flights on how many airlines fly SFO-JFK? How many people are closer to SJC?
Also, the bay area is a different market from SAN. It is probably not realistic to try to compare them directly.
For July 2018...
SFO has ~41 flights a day to JFK/EWR
SAN has ~14 flights a day to JFK/EWR
SJC has ~4 flights a day to JFK/EWR
SJC should easily be able to support more than 4 flights a day if they can convince the millions of people that live closer to SJC than SFO to fly SJC.
FA9295 wrote:DDR wrote:iyerhari wrote:JFK-SEA is a B6 Mint route plus a DL Delta One Route. The core premium passengers have options to choose with these two good products vs. AS which is the standard product for this route.
B6 BOS-SJC LF: 81.30% (it's pretty good and they have been flying solo on this route. Knock knock DL )
B6 JFK-SJC LF: 84.56% (this is not a Mint route). AS sees an opportunity here and comparatively a standard B6 product to poach and chase.
So how long until JFK-SJC does become a Mint route?
I'm pretty sure that's in B6's near future. With that being said, some people on this thread have stated that B6 has not been performing very well on their JFK-SJC route. I'm not really sure as to why they would think that, though. If the route was under-performing, they would not be operating it (would have ended it a long time ago).
Polot wrote:berari wrote:jfklganyc wrote:Looks like they are going to give B6 a run for their money.
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2018-04- ... tle-flight
Much ado about nothing. Why pick on the one airline that has the lowest number of frequency on the route when AA flies 3x and DL flies 6x per day?
B6 still provides a boutique service on the SEA-JFK run, granted not the best performing route for B6 (it has maintained a single daily rotation since forever.) It does offer a better product than AS, and if flying overnight out of SEA, and if fares are similar, the choice is clear.
The lowest frequency operator is generally the most vulnerable (you yourself admit it is probably not the best performing route for B6), that is why he was “picking” on B6 (although is AA really 3x daily?). If AS’s frequency increase lowers profitably the airlines with the lowest frequencies are the ones most likely to leave first.
Austin787 wrote:Polot wrote:berari wrote:
Much ado about nothing. Why pick on the one airline that has the lowest number of frequency on the route when AA flies 3x and DL flies 6x per day?
B6 still provides a boutique service on the SEA-JFK run, granted not the best performing route for B6 (it has maintained a single daily rotation since forever.) It does offer a better product than AS, and if flying overnight out of SEA, and if fares are similar, the choice is clear.
The lowest frequency operator is generally the most vulnerable (you yourself admit it is probably not the best performing route for B6), that is why he was “picking” on B6 (although is AA really 3x daily?). If AS’s frequency increase lowers profitably the airlines with the lowest frequencies are the ones most likely to leave first.
I think AA is more vulnerable than B6 on JFK-SEA. AA is up to 3 daily during the summer season, though drops to just 1 daily after summer which is lowest frequency of the airlines flying JFK-SEA.
berari wrote:jfklganyc wrote:Looks like they are going to give B6 a run for their money.
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2018-04- ... tle-flight
Much ado about nothing. Why pick on the one airline that has the lowest number of frequency on the route when AA flies 3x and DL flies 6x per day?
B6 still provides a boutique service on the SEA-JFK run, granted not the best performing route for B6 (it has maintained a single daily rotation since forever.) It does offer a better product than AS, and if flying overnight out of SEA, and if fares are similar, the choice is clear.
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:Seems like a decent try for AS.
I think AA might retract. It's nothing against AA at all it's more they are small in SEA and are shrinking JFK. It's a very competitive market now. This changed recently, just a few years ago AA was a much larger player in the market the number of seats has skyrocketed between nyc-sea. Additionally beside huge Increase in numbers of seats the quality of the premium cabin has gone up alot on many flights. I do think AA will bow out but it's nothing against AA it's just too competitive and the other carriers all have more of a reason to stay or absorb a loss.
tphuang wrote:A couple of interesting things here.
1) no reduction in other services from what I can see and the times don't appear to be really off peak hours, so either JFK slots are really easy to obtain or they got it from someone.
iyerhari wrote:SEA airline market share from 2017:
AS: 49.57% (includes Horizon air and Virgin America)
AA: 5.86% (includes AAE)
DL: 19.73% (includes DLC)
JetBlue: 1.18%
AS is miles ahead of the game!