NZ and VA have ended their trans Tasman alliance with unknown impacts to schedule, frequent flyer and codeshares etc.

Already discussed in both the NZ and AU aviation threads separately - but thought it better to unite across the ditch to get one discussion with collective views and speculation rather than spread across two threads.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero

The code share was already very poorly handled from an automation perspective at check in. It kind of smelled of not wanting to spend another nickel making it work right.

But this is NOT good news for customers like me and there are lots of us who interline. There is surely no likelihood of a NZ/QF joint venture / interline being approved in the future so the question in my mind is why ? Why terminate it? What replaces it? How does this enhance the customer travelling experience? Why is no interline and code share better than the status quo? I am curious. Thoughts? Doesnt this just push VA further towards Skyteam?

NZ will more likely fly to the larger regional AU ports (e.g CBR, TSV, ROK, etc) with their own (all-Y) A320s, even if it's only a few times a week and/or seasonal. They also have the financial capital to pay for their share of Customs/Immigration costs at the currently unmanned AU regional ports if need be.

A loose interline agreement with QF (without the codeshare) would be the likely rumour to replace VA at the regional ports that are not within reach from NZ with the all-Y A320s and/or doesn't have the runway length.

Hmmm Really? How is it precisely that NZ would chose to interline with QF in Australia and allow QF to interline with JQ in NZ? There seems to be a lack of reciprocity in such an arrangement which ultimately reinforces a strong QF. If NZ really have turned their back on VA at this juncture then they must have a clear picture of an alternative future that we are not yet discussing. Love to hear some thoughts about this.

^^

Another note, just did a dummy booking on NZ's website. Some regional AU ports e.g. Bundaberg and Alice Springs on NZ's website already sells interlines with QF.

So some smaller AU regional cities that are currently served by VA via codeshare may likely see a switch from VA to QF for interlining as the VA/NZ alliance winds down by the end of October.

sq256 wrote:

^^

Another note, just did a dummy booking on NZ's website. Some regional AU ports e.g. Bundaberg and Alice Springs on NZ's website already sells interlines with QF.

So some smaller AU regional cities that are currently served by VA via codeshare may likely see a switch from VA to QF for interlining as the VA/NZ alliance winds down by the end of October.

Actually spotted this last week, but reverse order it was a QF through fare ex NZ from a NZ regional location though to KTA!

QF and NZ have an existing interline going back decades. They have never been offical partners but have always sold onto each other’s domestic networks. While not heavily pushed over recent years there is literally nothing to stop NZ ticketing pax onto QF in the absence of a formal codeshare agreement with either airline.

Has NZ announced their plans for WLG-BNE?

If QF + NZ don't offer thru-fares I can imagine tickets would be very pricey.

Does anybody see authorities waiving anti-trust issues for a QF/NZ cross-Tasman JV? I don't.

How are VA's finances these days? If they're still a bit dicey, then perhaps NZ smells blood in the water.

On top of the existing interline, QF do almost all ground handling for NZ in Aus, don't they?

XAM2175 wrote:

On top of the existing interline, QF do almost all ground handling for NZ in Aus, don't they?

Air NZ ground handling in Australia changed from QF to Toll Dnata in March 2013 at SYD, MEL, BNE, ADL and PER. Became Dnata from Jan 2015 when Toll sold it's 50% share to Dnata. And VA ground handling in New Zealand changed from Air NZ to Aerocare in Oct 2017.

PA515

From the Air NZ Press Release

This move will enable us to deliver a more consistent customer experience by using our own fleet and delivering an improved schedule, which we'll provide more details about shortly.

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-re ... n-alliance

Looking forward to the schedule details.

PA515

PA515 wrote:

Air NZ ground handling...

Ah, cheers mate! I've obviously not been paying attention :p

XAM2175 wrote:

Ah, cheers mate! I've obviously not been paying attention

To be honest, I did a bit of research a few months back to see if there were any impediments for Air NZ in terms of ground handling at HBA, CBR and NTL. Discovered Aerocare has an operation at these airports and that the most likely times for an Air NZ flight to be there was when it wasn't that busy anyway.

PA515

One has to wonder how much Tasman feed VA gets directly in New Zealand vs how much has been feed from NZ?

When did you last see any VA marketing in New Zealand? One has to think the maorirty of passengers from New Zealand were all ticketed by NZ - then complained about the low level of product on VA.

Personally I think it’s awesome seeing the ties with VA cut, there services were beyond average and the Aussie domestic lounges are just an waiting room.

I’m thinking that going forward AKL-SYD and AKL-MEL will move to fully 777/787 services freeing up the A320s for some new direct services.

MIflyer12 wrote:

If QF + NZ don't offer thru-fares I can imagine tickets would be very pricey.

Does anybody see authorities waiving anti-trust issues for a QF/NZ cross-Tasman JV? I don't.

QF-NZ would NEVER receive approval, but they don’t need to. What this means is that they can’t coordinate fares, schedules and capacity between themselves, but they can still on-sell to each other. Both airlines already offer through fares on each other’s networks into regional markets, note through fares not end-on-end. As I said before, QF and NZ have sold onto each other for decades, pretty much for ever. What’s more there is nothing yet says that NZ will terminate their interline with VA either, only the JBA.

PA515 wrote:

XAM2175 wrote:

Ah, cheers mate! I've obviously not been paying attention

To be honest, I did a bit of research a few months back to see if there were any impediments for Air NZ in terms of ground handling at HBA, CBR and NTL. Discovered Aerocare has an operation at these airports and that the most likely times for an Air NZ flight to be there was when it wasn't that busy anyway.

PA515

Aerocare handle VA at every regional airport so if VA fly there Aerocare have a presence. Additionally QF handled NZ for years, and there is no reason per se that they couldn’t again. Therefore if NZ launched CBR they could put it out to a competitive tender between the two (and anyone else).

I just read the SMH article on the matter.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4z7qm.html

Just putting some back of the envelope numbers together for a very basic analysis of the situation.

Air New Zealand are on record that they will increase their flying to the Australian market stating "we're looking to grow our footprint".

If we assume Air New Zealand will increase their flying into the Australian market by 10%, at some point the other airlines will need to adjust their flight frequencies to match underlying demand.

If we assume Air New Zealand will loose a portion of Virgin Australia passengers, whilst at the same time re-gaining Air New Zealand passengers (purchase tickets from NZ, but fly VA), we would have to assume for the business case to work Air New Zealand are expecting to gain more passengers than they loose.

If we now consider increased flying will result in more direct flights to key Australian ports, than it is also safe to assume passengers who currently fly with QANTAS and Jetstar may now have better alternatives with Air New Zealand's increased flight schedules, frequencies and destinations. As such, some passengers may come from the QANTAS group.

On the same point, passengers who currently find flight schedules, frequencies and destinations with the ANZ/VA alliance the best alternative, may now find better alternatives with the QANTAS group. As such some passengers will be better placed flying with QANTAS than ANZ or VA (i.e Coffs Harbour - Wellington).

If we consider Air New Zealand's share of the trans-Tasman market is currently around 37%, an additional 10% of the market equates to 3.7%. If we assume 6% of the 10% will come from VA and the remaining 4% from QANTAS, VA will loose 15% of its current market and QANTAS 5%.

If we consider QANTAS have a competitive response to this new paradigm, than the numbers only get worse for VA. For instance we have recently seen QANTAS deploy A330 aircraft with the premium business class product to New Zealand. This suggests product could be just as important as price. VA are relatively weak on the product side of the equation.

If we now assume QANTAS can maintain its current share of the market by offering a range of products (Jetstar, 737 standard product and A330 premium product), than the additional 3.7% of the market could all end up coming from VA.

Considering VA currently have 17% of the market, a loss of 3.7% of the market would equate to a reduction in passengers of 20% or a revised market share of 13%. To put this into perspective, if we consider a break even point at a load factor of 70% and VA are currently experiencing load factors of 83%, a reduction of 20% would result in load factors of 63% resulting in the market turning into a substantial loss position. VA would have to reduce its flying in this market.

We also have to ask ourselves, can an airline with 13% of a market adequately service business customers where flight schedules, frequencies, destinations and on-board product are all factors in passengers buying decisions.

Virgin Australia's response to date has revolved around TigerAir entering the trans-Tasman market. This could suggest, VA already understand the end of the JV will result in them loosing the critical mass required for the VA product to adequately compete in this market.

As such, instead of Air New Zealand gaining 10%, they could gain 15% of the market, whilst at the same time the QANTAS group could grow its presence by an additional 5%, both making them stronger competitors.

In essence the end of the JV could result in the three main competitors being reduced to two. Not a bad outcome for Air New Zealand and QANTAS.

Given VA claims to have been blindsided by the NZ announcement, I suspect that JB’s response relating to introducing TT into the Tasman mix was an off-the-cuff knee-jerk response (if it can be both) rather than the considered view of the VA Board. Not to say it won’t happen, but I don’t think we can take the suggestion as a definite direction for VA.

[quote="zkncj"]One has to wonder how much Tasman feed VA gets directly in New Zealand vs how much has been feed from NZ?

When did you last see any VA marketing in New Zealand? One has to think the maorirty of passengers from New Zealand were all ticketed by NZ - then complained about the low level of product on VA.

Personally I think it’s awesome seeing the ties with VA cut, there services were beyond average and the Aussie domestic lounges are just an waiting room.

I’m thinking that going forward AKL-SYD and AKL-MEL will move to fully 777/787 services freeing up the A320s for some new direct services.[/quote

I’d say NZ could do a 2 hourly weekday AKL-SYD, 0700, 0900, 1100, 1300, 1500, 1700, 1900 with up to 5 wodebodies.

MEL 5 daily 0630, 0830, 1200, 1530, 1830 with up to 3 widebodies.

BNE 4 daily 0645, 0930, 1530, 1930 with up to 2 widebodies.

I do think maybe a daily widenody to OOL though with additional seasonal A320 capacity.

Maybe a slight increase to PER and flights to CBR, HBT.

I have a feeling that this could be the lead in for a capacity war across the Tasman. NZ and VA are both likely to increase their capacities, by opening routes currently only severed by one of the two and increasing frequency on current routes. I would say that all AKL-SYD/MEL flights on wide bodies isn't a bad idea, but I wouldn't expect QF to stand by and watch. QF have already introduced some A330s onto AKL flights and they could lily add more if they bought NZ was easting into their market share because of the wide body advantage.

I wonder what impact this will have on NZ's North American network. I'd imagine those flights are popular with Aussies due to the easy AKL transfer, but how many of these passengers are VA FFs who would otherwise be on QF?

I can see NZ taking up more interlines with QF, particularly to regional destinations. It would be better for NZ to have a consistent interline partner for all of regional Australia (QF has a much better regional network), with their own NZ metal to all the major destinations (PER, ADL, HBA, MEL, SYD, NTL, OOL, BNE, CNS, DRW)

I think NZ and QF will end up as

ZK-NBT wrote:

I do think maybe a daily widenody to OOL though with additional seasonal A320 capacity.

Maybe a slight increase to PER and flights to CBR, HBT.

Does OOL have the yields to support a widebody with BNE up the road? Considering the beach market nature of OOL. I can see OOL being a A321NEO market, with the A320 probably moved to other regional ports e.g MCY (upgraded to 3x year round and 4-5x during peak season) and CBR.

JBusworth wrote:

I have a feeling that this could be the lead in for a capacity war across the Tasman. NZ and VA are both likely to increase their capacities, by opening routes currently only severed by one of the two and increasing frequency on current routes. I would say that all AKL-SYD/MEL flights on wide bodies isn't a bad idea, but I wouldn't expect QF to stand by and watch. QF have already introduced some A330s onto AKL flights and they could lily add more if they bought NZ was easting into their market share because of the wide body advantage.

I wonder what impact this will have on NZ's North American network. I'd imagine those flights are popular with Aussies due to the easy AKL transfer, but how many of these passengers are VA FFs who would otherwise be on QF?

I can see NZ taking up more interlines with QF, particularly to regional destinations. It would be better for NZ to have a consistent interline partner for all of regional Australia (QF has a much better regional network), with their own NZ metal to all the major destinations (PER, ADL, HBA, MEL, SYD, NTL, OOL, BNE, CNS, DRW)

I think NZ and QF will end up as

I don’t think this will have any impact except to strengthen NZ in AU, they currently compete with VA to LA, where they kicked VA out of the LAX lounge sometime ago and cancelled velocity recognition and actually to the US and PI some time ago.

QF already Interline with NZ, they just don’t codeshare. I would assume same will happen with VA. Bar CBR/HBA/DRW NZ have almost all key gateways covered for travel to NZ, and onwards to the North, South America and Pacific Islands.

JBusworth wrote:

I have a feeling that this could be the lead in for a capacity war across the Tasman. NZ and VA are both likely to increase their capacities, by opening routes currently only severed by one of the two and increasing frequency on current routes. I would say that all AKL-SYD/MEL flights on wide bodies isn't a bad idea, but I wouldn't expect QF to stand by and watch. QF have already introduced some A330s onto AKL flights and they could lily add more if they bought NZ was easting into their market share because of the wide body advantage.

QF largely introduced the A330s to AKL from MEL,SYD,BNE due to EK dropping the A380 services between MEL,SYD,BNE-AKL so pretty much replacing capacity that was lost.

smi0006 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

I have a feeling that this could be the lead in for a capacity war across the Tasman. NZ and VA are both likely to increase their capacities, by opening routes currently only severed by one of the two and increasing frequency on current routes. I would say that all AKL-SYD/MEL flights on wide bodies isn't a bad idea, but I wouldn't expect QF to stand by and watch. QF have already introduced some A330s onto AKL flights and they could lily add more if they bought NZ was easting into their market share because of the wide body advantage.

I wonder what impact this will have on NZ's North American network. I'd imagine those flights are popular with Aussies due to the easy AKL transfer, but how many of these passengers are VA FFs who would otherwise be on QF?

I can see NZ taking up more interlines with QF, particularly to regional destinations. It would be better for NZ to have a consistent interline partner for all of regional Australia (QF has a much better regional network), with their own NZ metal to all the major destinations (PER, ADL, HBA, MEL, SYD, NTL, OOL, BNE, CNS, DRW)

I think NZ and QF will end up as

I don’t think this will have any impact except to strengthen NZ in AU, they currently compete with VA to LA, where they kicked VA out of the LAX lounge sometime ago and cancelled velocity recognition and actually to the US and PI some time ago.

VA also cancelled Velocity members earning on NZ flights from NZ-North/South America which annoyed NZ a lot. NZ flights to the US/South America are only popular to some Australians because NZ is always the cheapest, not because of the AKL transfer.

I don't think QF is going to get involved in a capacity war. Its TT operation is probably the biggest it has ever been. As QF and other airlines offer more P2P flights to Australia, this will probably hurt NZ in the long run.

NZ's currently A320/321NEO order is more than enough to cover the loss of seats from VA, 13X Purchased 320/321NEOS + 5x Leased 321NEO(optional).

A current A320CEO NZ (168 seats) working 24 sectors over 6 days can carry - 4032 passengers
A current B738 VA (176 seats) working 24 sectors over 6 days can carry - 4224 passengers

a A321NEO NZ (230 seats) working 24 sectors over 6 days can carry - 5520 passengers

getluv wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

I have a feeling that this could be the lead in for a capacity war across the Tasman. NZ and VA are both likely to increase their capacities, by opening routes currently only severed by one of the two and increasing frequency on current routes. I would say that all AKL-SYD/MEL flights on wide bodies isn't a bad idea, but I wouldn't expect QF to stand by and watch. QF have already introduced some A330s onto AKL flights and they could lily add more if they bought NZ was easting into their market share because of the wide body advantage.

I wonder what impact this will have on NZ's North American network. I'd imagine those flights are popular with Aussies due to the easy AKL transfer, but how many of these passengers are VA FFs who would otherwise be on QF?

I can see NZ taking up more interlines with QF, particularly to regional destinations. It would be better for NZ to have a consistent interline partner for all of regional Australia (QF has a much better regional network), with their own NZ metal to all the major destinations (PER, ADL, HBA, MEL, SYD, NTL, OOL, BNE, CNS, DRW)

I think NZ and QF will end up as

I don’t think this will have any impact except to strengthen NZ in AU, they currently compete with VA to LA, where they kicked VA out of the LAX lounge sometime ago and cancelled velocity recognition and actually to the US and PI some time ago.

VA also cancelled Velocity members earning on NZ flights from NZ-North/South America which annoyed NZ a lot. NZ flights to the US/South America are only popular to some Australians because NZ is always the cheapest, not because of the AKL transfer.

I don't think QF is going to get involved in a capacity war. Its TT operation is probably the biggest it has ever been. As QF and other airlines offer more P2P flights to Australia, this will probably hurt NZ in the long run.

Does QF offer more P2P to AU than NZ? QF serve MEL/SYD/BNE(seasonal PER) to a mix of AKL/CHC/ZQN/WLG NZ offer ADL/PER/OOL/MCY/CNS/SYD/MEL/BNE plus random NLK to a mix AKL/CHC/WLG/ZQN plus random RAR some seasonal. Be interesting to see what schedule changes fall out for NZ after this

I'm talking routes beyond AKL. AKL isn't a hub for QF like it is for NZ. You can talk about flights to ADL, HBA, CBR, CNS etc. QF also offers flights to these destinations from its own hubs in SYD, MEL and BNE.

I'm guessing AC starting flights MEL-YVR and UA starting IAH-SYD would have annoyed NZ.

I guess that you can consider SYD/BNE-NLK as 'domestic' routes, since travel between the mainland and the island is now considered domestic since June 1st, 2016.

Air New Zealand Australian Routes:

Sydney:
SYD - AKL
SYD - CHC
SYD- WLG
SYD - ZQN
SYD - RAR
SYD - NLK

Melbourne:
MEL - AKL
MEL - CHC
MEL - WLG
MEL - ZQN

Brisbane:
BNE - AKL
BNE - CHC
BNE - ZQN (seasonal)
BNE - NLK

Gold Coast:
OOL - AKL
OOL - CHC

Perth:
PER - AKL
PER - CHC (seasonal)

Adelaide:
ADL - AKL

Cairns:
CNS - AKL (seasonal)

Sunshine Coast:
MCY - AKL (seasonal)

Norfolk Island:
NLK - SYD
NLK - BNE

travelhound wrote:

In essence the end of the JV could result in the three main competitors being reduced to two. Not a bad outcome for Air New Zealand and QANTAS

Great analysis.

getluv wrote:

I'm guessing AC starting flights MEL-YVR and UA starting IAH-SYD would have annoyed NZ.

What I'm also interested in is the extent to which SQ may be annoyed at NZ for ditching VA - SQ part owns VA, and NZ's cutting off of VA will undermine VA, thus potentially reducing VA's value and thus SQ's bottom line?

Cheers,

C.

I don't know how important NZ feed is to VA - I know they have many arrangements with many airlines. Despite what's been reported I'd say that this announcement is hardly shocking news given recent history and VA would have been anticipating this at some point.

Basically most FF's and aviation forum site posters (including A'Net) saw this coming for some time now since the Luxon/Borghetti spat. It's a matter of when the announcement was going to be made.

There have been other indicators as well. Air New Zealand has been doing their own advertising, promotions, etc in Australia for quite a while now. They have been promoting their brand, moreso than their destinations. This suggests they have been looking st expanding their Australian presence for quite a while.

ZK-NBT wrote:

I’d say NZ could do a 2 hourly weekday AKL-SYD, 0700, 0900, 1100, 1300, 1500, 1700, 1900 with up to 5 wodebodies.

MEL 5 daily 0630, 0830, 1200, 1530, 1830 with up to 3 widebodies.

BNE 4 daily 0645, 0930, 1530, 1930 with up to 2 widebodies.

I do think maybe a daily widenody to OOL though with additional seasonal A320 capacity.

Maybe a slight increase to PER and flights to CBR, HBT.

I suspect the reality will be somewhat less expansive than your “wish list” though I’d like to be proven wrong. I’d suggest the following additional flights over and above the current offering:

AKL-BNE additional 0630 departure to connect with the early Americas arrivals

AKL-MEL likewise

AKL-OOL possible upgrade to WB service, at least 3x weekly

AKL-ADL upgrade to daily with additional 320 services

WLG-BNE new daily service

ZQN-BNE new seasonal service expanding quickly to year round

Plus new services on AKL-CBR and AKL-HBA each 3x weekly.

Beyond this kind of service increase the risks would start to escalate significantly. Even the above would not be without risk.

zkncj wrote:

a A321NEO NZ (230 seats)

Air NZ's A321NEO will have 214 seats. Some will be Space Plus.

PA515

Don't confuse Joint venture with codeshare or interline. NZ will still interline with VA, just won't share the revenue from transtasman JV. In other words, if you fly AKL-SYD-DRW, it will be an interline ticket NZ/VA but you will not be able to book it as NZ flight number SYD-DRW or VA AKL-PER and in case of these tickets, the revenue will not be split 50/50, it will go the lion's share of profit to the airline flying the majority/longest routes as tickets have always done prior to modern sgreements..

I think it may mean a major reduction for the VA brand in New Zealand if they can't fill up their planes with NZ codeshares like they have been. Tiger may well become the vehicle of choice for the VA Group, similar to JQ for QF group.

aerorobnz wrote:

I think it may mean a major reduction for the VA brand in New Zealand if they can't fill up their planes with NZ codeshares like they have been. Tiger may well become the vehicle of choice for the VA Group, similar to JQ for QF group.

It might be the best choice for the VA Group - This afternoon JQ has put NZ-AU fares on sale for $89 oneway, its been an while since fares have bene that low.

Do wonder how much of VA's passengers on the Tasman, booked via NZ's website? for example you hardly would see any marketing from VA over the past two years, it was all from NZ. Then when the passengers ended up on VA - they soon would swear they would never fly VA again...

DavidByrne wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

I’d say NZ could do a 2 hourly weekday AKL-SYD, 0700, 0900, 1100, 1300, 1500, 1700, 1900 with up to 5 wodebodies.

MEL 5 daily 0630, 0830, 1200, 1530, 1830 with up to 3 widebodies.

BNE 4 daily 0645, 0930, 1530, 1930 with up to 2 widebodies.

I do think maybe a daily widenody to OOL though with additional seasonal A320 capacity.

Maybe a slight increase to PER and flights to CBR, HBT.

I suspect the reality will be somewhat less expansive than your “wish list” though I’d like to be proven wrong. I’d suggest the following additional flights over and above the current offering:

AKL-BNE additional 0630 departure to connect with the early Americas arrivals

AKL-MEL likewise

AKL-OOL possible upgrade to WB service, at least 3x weekly

AKL-ADL upgrade to daily with additional 320 services

WLG-BNE new daily service

ZQN-BNE new seasonal service expanding quickly to year round

Plus new services on AKL-CBR and AKL-HBA each 3x weekly.

Beyond this kind of service increase the risks would start to escalate significantly. Even the above would not be without risk.

It’s not a wish list as such just how I could see it playing out, NZ/VA currently have up to 7 AKL-SYD, 6 MEL and 5 BNE. Covering all parts of the day.
Maybe an additional morning SYD at 0800 giving Business customers that option and therefore probably keeping the same schedule as current, 0700, 0800, 0900, 1100, 1300, 1600, 1930.

ZK-NBT wrote:

It’s not a wish list as such just how I could see it playing out, NZ/VA currently have up to 7 AKL-SYD, 6 MEL and 5 BNE. Covering all parts of the day.
Maybe an additional morning SYD at 0800 giving Business customers that option and therefore probably keeping the same schedule as current, 0700, 0800, 0900, 1100, 1300, 1600, 1930.

0800 AKL-SYD could make some sense with an A320 - that did an AKL-SYD-CHC-SYD-AKL route arriving back around midnight.

NZ has shot the first bullet, following changes are to be taken into affect:

From October 28:
- Increase to AKL-SYD/MEL/BNE~
- Increase to CHC-SYD/MEL/BNE~

From December 2:
- New x5 weekly~ BNE-WLG
- New x4 weekly seasonal~ BNE-ZQN

~Up to, final frequency TBC
*Flight details yet to be confirmed

More info: https://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealan ... an-flights

kriskim wrote:

NZ has shot the first bullet, following changes are to be taken into affect:

Can VA maintain AKL-SYD with there twice daily 738 service vs NZ's now 5x daily 777 service?

zkncj wrote:

kriskim wrote:

NZ has shot the first bullet, following changes are to be taken into affect:

Can VA maintain AKL-SYD with there twice daily 738 service vs NZ's now 5x daily 777 service?

To be competitive I think they need to offer 3-4 daily AKL-SYD with atleast probably 2 daily AKL-MEL/BNE.

ZK-NBT wrote:

zkncj wrote:

kriskim wrote:

NZ has shot the first bullet, following changes are to be taken into affect:

Can VA maintain AKL-SYD with there twice daily 738 service vs NZ's now 5x daily 777 service?

To be competitive I think they need to offer 3-4 daily AKL-SYD with atleast probably 2 daily AKL-MEL/BNE.

Looks like on AKL-SYD they have been left with an 0800 & 1300 not very competitive.

zkncj wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

zkncj wrote:

Can VA maintain AKL-SYD with there twice daily 738 service vs NZ's now 5x daily 777 service?

To be competitive I think they need to offer 3-4 daily AKL-SYD with atleast probably 2 daily AKL-MEL/BNE.

Looks like on AKL-SYD they have been left with an 0800 & 1300 not very competitive.

That’s what they currently fly they haven’t updated yet what they are doing beyond Oct 28th. I’d imagine early departures to SYD/MEL/BNE/OOL each aircraft returning in the afternoon and flying back to the same destination bar OOL which is 1 daily, maybe MEL/SYD with early departures from arriving AKL midday and returning at 1300. They also have RAR/TBU aswell to connect to.

Let's hope VA takes this as an opportunity to cull routes and try and return to a post-tax profit, or throws Borghetti out on his ass where he belongs after a long time with no success.

My Tip is probably twice daily SYD/MEL/BNE-AKL (timed to/from VA/DL Int'l flights in SYD/MEL) in the morning and afternoon serving as a "feeder" (and the leftover O&D traffic VA manages to get) and not actually competing with QF/NZ. Ditto with BNE/MEL-CHC being once-daily (split schedule and timed to/from VA's other flights (DPS, HKG) in MEL/BNE).

If VA keeps the 5th freedom routes beyond AKL (twice daily TBU and 4-5 weekly RAR), there will need to be flights timed to connect to those in AKL.

As for the other Tasman routes on VA, tipping a token BNE-WLG presence with all other routes/timings being TigerAir'd.

Marginal flights e.g BNE-DUD may likely be dropped.