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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:40 am

BITRE out for Jan 18

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1801.pdf

Even with extra flights, 4 weekly for Jan Air Mauritius pulled a 98% load factor on inbound traffic to PER, wonder if they will go 5 weekly next summer
Batik Air load factor improved 86.6% inbound, 46% outbound
QF's SCL service 98.4% LF inbound, 95.4% outbound, even with a 5th weekly seasonal service added looks like this could be increased in the future
VA's MEL-HKG seems to be doing better 88.7% LF inbound, 66.2% outbound
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Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:39 am

qf789 wrote:
BITRE out for Jan 18

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1801.pdf

Even with extra flights, 4 weekly for Jan Air Mauritius pulled a 98% load factor on inbound traffic to PER, wonder if they will go 5 weekly next summer
Batik Air load factor improved 86.6% inbound, 46% outbound
QF's SCL service 98.4% LF inbound, 95.4% outbound, even with a 5th weekly seasonal service added looks like this could be increased in the future
VA's MEL-HKG seems to be doing better 88.7% LF inbound, 66.2% outbound


JQ having a rough time on MEL-CGO (aren't they pulling out?) with load factors in the 55-65%...

I know we talk about it every month but VA's BNE-POM was 28% inbound, 37% outbound...
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:14 am

Qantas16 wrote:
I know we talk about it every month but VA's BNE-POM was 28% inbound, 37% outbound.

I wonder if the yield from that ~30% is super high though, with VA maybe having some sort of contract with a mining company that uses the flights and purchases a minimum number of empty seats? Or, perhaps cargo on this route is very lucrative?

PA515 wrote:
All this talk of BNE to ORD, DFW or SEA could be nothing. I mean why would there be a BNE-SEA instead of a SYD-SEA, and ORD-BNE would be at the limits.

I agree. Although the 789's will be based in BNE, is it possible that they could be tagged to other Australian or New Zealand ports, first? For example, BNE - SYD - SEA, or BNE - AKL - JFK? I doubt QF would go to ORD now, given NZ's new flight.

Cheers,

C.
 
Sylus
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:24 am

Qantas16 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
BITRE out for Jan 18

I know we talk about it every month but VA's BNE-POM was 28% inbound, 37% outbound...


While this is bad, the J loads on this route are quite high with many flights going out with a full J cabin.

Speaking of high loads, today's JQ 224 ZQN-SYD left with 180 passengers - a full load. I've never seen an international flight leave ZQN with over 170 so that was a cool sight - not much runway to spare!
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:45 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
Having returning from ZQN yesterday, it was a very busy Easter weekend over there, with warbirds over wanaka being a big highlight.

The A320 better runway performance than the 738, shouldn't have been an issue. Not sure if the A321 would make it out however....


I guess we will see in the NZ year, if NZ chooses to send there A321NEO's into ZQN.
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:51 am

Sylus wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
BITRE out for Jan 18

I know we talk about it every month but VA's BNE-POM was 28% inbound, 37% outbound...


While this is bad, the J loads on this route are quite high with many flights going out with a full J cabin.

Speaking of high loads, today's JQ 224 ZQN-SYD left with 180 passengers - a full load. I've never seen an international flight leave ZQN with over 170 so that was a cool sight - not much runway to spare!


Having returning from ZQN yesterday, it was a very busy Easter weekend over there, with warbirds over wanaka being a big highlight.

The A320 better runway performance than the 738, shouldn't have been an issue. Not sure if the A321 would make it out however....
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:03 am

Re VA taking over SQ frequencies- part of the issue is SQ has too many planes and not enough places to fly them, hence the multiple frequencies. BNE really doesn't need 4 flights a day + Scoot @ OOL.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:17 am

Cathay Pacific to add a 6th weekly flight to ADL from 28th October 18, split schedule will also be introduced

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... de-flight/
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sq256
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:46 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
eta unknown wrote:

The best outcome for VA would be to have SQ take a larger interest, with EY and HNA exiting. HNA have some significant issues they are trying to manage, which also makes it likely they could be seriously considering selling their stake.


There's been plenty of chances for SQ to take a larger stake in VA in the past and they haven't taken those opportunities. If SQ were interested, they would've done so by now. Especially when SQ are being coy over their future in VA in recent years since the NZ exit and subsequent Nanshan investment.
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:37 am

Obzerva wrote:

I do recall HBA and LST having a ridiculously great schedule to MEL during the CRJ ops, think it was 10 and 8 flights a day respectively. That was great from a customer perspective.



Obzerva wrote:

Ansett wanted to drop having it’s regional airports having direct employment by AN and wanted contractors - mainly due to the conditions enjoyed by the local airport staff, hence AN doing a complete pullout of locations such as LST and HBA, rather than the better scheduled, one or two AN 737s in and CRJ supplementing the schedule, which would have allowed for business and groups



KD operated the CRJ from HBA-MEL between 1 April 2000 and 13 Sep 2001, and from HBA-SYD between 26 Dec 2000 and 13 Sep 2001. The initial plan was for KD to operate 10 daily HBA-MEL with AN to pull out; but, AN kept operating HBA-MEL right up until 13 Sep 2001 (and from 25 October 2001 to 4 March 2002 as Mark2). The launch schedule had KD operating 4 daily HBA-MEL, with AN operating 3 daily 320s, a daily 733, as well as an extra 320 on Friday and Sunday nights. The CRJ numbers on HBA-MEL peaked at 13 daily with AN maintaining a single daily service. The use of such small jets was in contrast with QF, who operated regular 762 and 763 flights on HBA-MEL together with the staple 734s at this time.
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:48 am

eta unknown wrote:
Re VA taking over SQ frequencies- part of the issue is SQ has too many planes and not enough places to fly them, hence the multiple frequencies. BNE really doesn't need 4 flights a day + Scoot @ OOL.


SQ fly multiple frequencies because it can fill them, it has one of the highest load factors year round, almost always 90%+
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:21 am

Conflicting reports on EY's stake in VA, EY says VA remains important partner

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/eti ... t-partner/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:24 am

Schedules for new WA REX routes from 1 July 18

Perth – Carnarvon 6 weekly
ZL2416 PER0735 – 0945CVQ SF3 x7
ZL2417 CVQ1020 – 1230PER SF3 x7

Perth – Monkey Mia – Carnarvon 6 weekly
ZL2268 PER1350 – 1535MJK1600 – 1630CVQ SF3 x6
ZL2269 MJK1600 – 1630CVQ1705 – 1915PER SF3 x6

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... july-2018/
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sq256
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:32 pm

Obzerva wrote:
Ansett wanted to drop having it’s regional airports having direct employment by AN and wanted contractors - mainly due to the conditions enjoyed by the local airport staff, hence AN doing a complete pullout of locations such as LST and HBA, rather than the better scheduled, one or two AN 737s in and CRJ supplementing the schedule, which would have allowed for business and groups.


KD's CRJs were also a common sight at most Queensland regional airports in AN's final years. BNE-ROK, BNE-MKY and SYD-MCY saw regular CRJ service (at a high frequency) during the weekday with mainline AN serving those ports on the weekends at a lesser frequency. Which was kind of screwed up from a scheduling perspective as you'd see J offering from AN mainline on a weekend, whilst the CRJ has no J seats.
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:42 pm

log0008 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Re VA taking over SQ frequencies- part of the issue is SQ has too many planes and not enough places to fly them, hence the multiple frequencies. BNE really doesn't need 4 flights a day + Scoot @ OOL.


SQ fly multiple frequencies because it can fill them, it has one of the highest load factors year round, almost always 90%+


For some reason Eta Unknown takes particular issue with SQ operating 4x daily flights ex-BNE and continues to peddle the lie that they can't fill them - they are consistently full year round. Yes, the weakest performer is the new afternoon 265/266, but it has decent loads already and within the next year will be close to their other 3x daily flights. SQ would prefer to leave a plane sitting on the ground in SIN than fly it on a loss-making service consistently, so not sure why you continue to go on about this.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:51 pm

Canberra Airport is offering a cash incentive to both QF & VA for reducing cancellations on SYD-CBR route

In a letter sent to Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia, Canberra Airport has committed to paying AUD100,000 per month for the next six months to the airline that successfully operates the Canberra-Sydney route with a monthly cancellation rate at or below the national average for that month. If both Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia beat the national average, then the carrier with the lowest number of cancelled flights will get the monthly incentive. The offer will be in place for a full for six months, giving airlines the chance at AUD600,000.


https://blueswandaily.com/exclusive-int ... nd-sydney/
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qf002
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:45 pm

I doubt $25k a week is enough of an incentive to get the attention of either QF or VA. If either airline did make a run for the cash then it would probably be by taking flights out of the schedule earlier rather than "cancelling" them on the morning of like they do currently.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:46 pm

qf789 wrote:
Canberra Airport is offering a cash incentive to both QF & VA for reducing cancellations on SYD-CBR route

In a letter sent to Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia, Canberra Airport has committed to paying AUD100,000 per month for the next six months to the airline that successfully operates the Canberra-Sydney route with a monthly cancellation rate at or below the national average for that month. If both Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia beat the national average, then the carrier with the lowest number of cancelled flights will get the monthly incentive. The offer will be in place for a full for six months, giving airlines the chance at AUD600,000.


https://blueswandaily.com/exclusive-int ... nd-sydney/


That is by far the strangest thing I have read all day! As for QantasLink I'm sure the airline would love to keep to schedule, if only the 717's felt the same way!
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:00 am

sq256 wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
Ansett wanted to drop having it’s regional airports having direct employment by AN and wanted contractors - mainly due to the conditions enjoyed by the local airport staff, hence AN doing a complete pullout of locations such as LST and HBA, rather than the better scheduled, one or two AN 737s in and CRJ supplementing the schedule, which would have allowed for business and groups.


KD's CRJs were also a common sight at most Queensland regional airports in AN's final years. BNE-ROK, BNE-MKY and SYD-MCY saw regular CRJ service (at a high frequency) during the weekday with mainline AN serving those ports on the weekends at a lesser frequency. Which was kind of screwed up from a scheduling perspective as you'd see J offering from AN mainline on a weekend, whilst the CRJ has no J seats.


That reminds me of a comment by then KD CEO Geoff Breust at HBA during the launch of HBA-MEL services. In the context of talking up the additional frequencies offered by the CRJ, he added: "plus, you can get off on a Business Class seat". He appeared to be claiming the CRJs offered a 50J layout because the seats were leather!
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:04 am

a36001 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Canberra Airport is offering a cash incentive to both QF & VA for reducing cancellations on SYD-CBR route

In a letter sent to Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia, Canberra Airport has committed to paying AUD100,000 per month for the next six months to the airline that successfully operates the Canberra-Sydney route with a monthly cancellation rate at or below the national average for that month. If both Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia beat the national average, then the carrier with the lowest number of cancelled flights will get the monthly incentive. The offer will be in place for a full for six months, giving airlines the chance at AUD600,000.


https://blueswandaily.com/exclusive-int ... nd-sydney/


That is by far the strangest thing I have read all day! As for QantasLink I'm sure the airline would love to keep to schedule, if only the 717's felt the same way!


I agree. Given April Fool's Day was a few days ago, maybe CBR's On-Time-Performance was a bit off with their press release :lol:
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:14 am

qf789 wrote:
Conflicting reports on EY's stake in VA, EY says VA remains important partner

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/eti ... t-partner/


Ruling nothing in and nothing out, but it must be said that VA could continue to be an important partner even if the equity stake were taken out of the equation.
 
A350OZ
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:16 am

eta unknown wrote:
Re VA taking over SQ frequencies- part of the issue is SQ has too many planes and not enough places to fly them, hence the multiple frequencies. BNE really doesn't need 4 flights a day + Scoot @ OOL.


The other reason why VA just swapping HKG for SIN does not make sense is that HKG is capacity restricted by the bilateral agreement, and HKG based airlines (CX) already take up all the allocated capacity and therefore blocking new entrants. Hence why VA flies the route, not HX.

SIN is unrestricted, so SQ can fly as many frequencies to as many ports as they like. No reason for them to rely on VA.
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:25 am

sq256 wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
Ansett wanted to drop having it’s regional airports having direct employment by AN and wanted contractors - mainly due to the conditions enjoyed by the local airport staff, hence AN doing a complete pullout of locations such as LST and HBA, rather than the better scheduled, one or two AN 737s in and CRJ supplementing the schedule, which would have allowed for business and groups.


KD's CRJs were also a common sight at most Queensland regional airports in AN's final years. BNE-ROK, BNE-MKY and SYD-MCY saw regular CRJ service (at a high frequency) during the weekday with mainline AN serving those ports on the weekends at a lesser frequency. Which was kind of screwed up from a scheduling perspective as you'd see J offering from AN mainline on a weekend, whilst the CRJ has no J seats.


For the record, at their peak, KD operated CRJs on the following routes:

HBA-MEL
HBA-SYD
LST-MEL
LST-SYD
CBR-MEL
CBR-ADL
CBR-SYD
CBR-BNE
MCY-SYD
ROK-BNE
MKY-BNE
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:56 am

Qantas16 wrote:
log0008 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Re VA taking over SQ frequencies- part of the issue is SQ has too many planes and not enough places to fly them, hence the multiple frequencies. BNE really doesn't need 4 flights a day + Scoot @ OOL.


SQ fly multiple frequencies because it can fill them, it has one of the highest load factors year round, almost always 90%+


For some reason Eta Unknown takes particular issue with SQ operating 4x daily flights ex-BNE and continues to peddle the lie that they can't fill them - they are consistently full year round. Yes, the weakest performer is the new afternoon 265/266, but it has decent loads already and within the next year will be close to their other 3x daily flights. SQ would prefer to leave a plane sitting on the ground in SIN than fly it on a loss-making service consistently, so not sure why you continue to go on about this.

Info comes from the local SQ sales team, my friend. Basta.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:08 am

csturdiv wrote:
How much life is left in the Rex SF34s? And what would their replacement be? During my short 23 minute flight from KGC to ADL yesterday I wondered about that. Also, that was probably the smallest airport I have been into. Check in to gate, about 30 seconds, and that's being generous.


If youre after small airports, go check out NRA!
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:35 am

 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:31 am

Presumably we'll see NZ BNE-WLG flights reinstated and more VA WLG-AU flights beyond their current BNE services.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:43 am

eta unknown wrote:
Presumably we'll see NZ BNE-WLG flights reinstated and more VA WLG-AU flights beyond their current BNE services.


Not necessarily. VA will be by far the smallest operator on the Tasman so I'd expect them to concentrate on business services while allowing Tiger to grow into the market to cover off leisure travel. For NZ, I'd expect them to continue to be present on the maximum number of city pairs and have the highest frequency in the market. Certainly its a natural evoluation of the VA / NZ relationship because, realistically, NZ probably doesn't need the partnership to continue to attract the amount of traffic it does to their long haul network. A codeshare would do just as well.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:56 am

Sydscott wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Presumably we'll see NZ BNE-WLG flights reinstated and more VA WLG-AU flights beyond their current BNE services.


Not necessarily. VA will be by far the smallest operator on the Tasman so I'd expect them to concentrate on business services while allowing Tiger to grow into the market to cover off leisure travel. For NZ, I'd expect them to continue to be present on the maximum number of city pairs and have the highest frequency in the market. Certainly its a natural evoluation of the VA / NZ relationship because, realistically, NZ probably doesn't need the partnership to continue to attract the amount of traffic it does to their long haul network. A codeshare would do just as well.


Be interesting if codeshares will remain? Or if we could see NZ add CBR/HBA/DRW covering off most key ports and regions solo?

Makes senses considering NZ ex-AU as a key long haul growth market where they compete with VA/DL to the US. With QF moving to 330s, places VA at a weak spot across the Tasman from a product and frequency perspective.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:57 am

Knowing JB's ego, I would suspect codeshares may be off the table.
You meant lose, not loose.
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:12 am

smi0006 wrote:

Makes senses considering NZ ex-AU as a key long haul growth market where they compete with VA/DL to the US. With QF moving to 330s, places VA at a weak spot across the Tasman from a product and frequency perspective.


Starting to think VA will just leave the Tasman, and move all its Tasman flights to TT. Now without Lounge access on the Tasman, and pretty bad Intentional J product there business market is now gone.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:17 am

I’m flying the PER-MEL sector of QF10 on Saturday and it’s looking veeeery empty at this stage. My friend who is crew checked to see the status of my commercial upgrade request to Y+ and I’m the only one waiting with 20 seats to spare!

I have a feeling the ridiculous domestic fares on QF9/10 will start to wither away... I did get this flight for only $2 more than the other closest PER-MEL flight.
 
travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:33 am

Sydscott wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Presumably we'll see NZ BNE-WLG flights reinstated and more VA WLG-AU flights beyond their current BNE services.


Not necessarily. VA will be by far the smallest operator on the Tasman so I'd expect them to concentrate on business services while allowing Tiger to grow into the market to cover off leisure travel. For NZ, I'd expect them to continue to be present on the maximum number of city pairs and have the highest frequency in the market. Certainly its a natural evoluation of the VA / NZ relationship because, realistically, NZ probably doesn't need the partnership to continue to attract the amount of traffic it does to their long haul network. A codeshare would do just as well.


I think this was always to be expected.

Ending the alliance would allow ANZ more control of their destiny. If, as some have suggested ANZ increase flying to more Australian ports, the VA alliance would probably become a hindrance to their future plans.

It will be interesting to see how VA respond to this. They will be the smallest and without an alliance the weakest carrier in the trans-Tasman market.

From a strategy perspective, if QF increase their presence in the New Zealand market the best thing ANZ could do is scuttle their relationship with VA. This would allow ANZ to still grow whilst QF are going for a market share grab.

I think we will see a corresponding competitive response from QF in the next six months.

About time something interesting happened in the Australian market.It has been quite boring of late!
 
a7ala
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:20 am

Would be the prime time for QF to set EK lose on BNE-WLG as the NZ/VA alliance disintegrates. Would have been hard for QF or EK to fly against 2xdaily VA but much easier if the alliance splits into dailies each.
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:26 am

zkncj wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

Makes senses considering NZ ex-AU as a key long haul growth market where they compete with VA/DL to the US. With QF moving to 330s, places VA at a weak spot across the Tasman from a product and frequency perspective.


Starting to think VA will just leave the Tasman, and move all its Tasman flights to TT. Now without Lounge access on the Tasman, and pretty bad Intentional J product there business market is now gone.


Just because they don't have access to the NZ lounge doesn't mean they necessarily lose lounge access... VA will create (or expand) agreements with other lounges (or maybe even the NZ lounge) for their Trans-tasman pax in the same way they do for their non-trans tasman international flights... ex-BNE for example I would expect to see them use the Plaza Premium or SQ lounge.

a7ala wrote:
Would be the prime time for QF to set EK lose on BNE-WLG as the NZ/VA alliance disintegrates. Would have been hard for QF or EK to fly against 2xdaily VA but much easier if the alliance splits into dailies each.


Given EK is moving away from trans tasman services it would seem unlikely. Though I would agree that it would be easier for QF to compete now.

It will be interesting to see what changes their will be to NZ/VA services coming up - some routes like BNE-WLG will likely see NZ again but I would also expect to see a timetable shake up of existing VA flights which are sometimes scheduled away from NZ's flights on the same route.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:29 am

ben175 wrote:
I’m flying the PER-MEL sector of QF10 on Saturday and it’s looking veeeery empty at this stage. My friend who is crew checked to see the status of my commercial upgrade request to Y+ and I’m the only one waiting with 20 seats to spare!

I have a feeling the ridiculous domestic fares on QF9/10 will start to wither away... I did get this flight for only $2 more than the other closest PER-MEL flight.


I think they meant Y had 20 seats to spare. J and W have less than a handful left.
You meant lose, not loose.
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:43 am

Qantas16 wrote:
log0008 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Re VA taking over SQ frequencies- part of the issue is SQ has too many planes and not enough places to fly them, hence the multiple frequencies. BNE really doesn't need 4 flights a day + Scoot @ OOL.


SQ fly multiple frequencies because it can fill them, it has one of the highest load factors year round, almost always 90%+


For some reason Eta Unknown takes particular issue with SQ operating 4x daily flights ex-BNE and continues to peddle the lie that they can't fill them - they are consistently full year round. Yes, the weakest performer is the new afternoon 265/266, but it has decent loads already and within the next year will be close to their other 3x daily flights. SQ would prefer to leave a plane sitting on the ground in SIN than fly it on a loss-making service consistently, so not sure why you continue to go on about this.


SQ's average load factor for all services to/from all Australian ports for the year ended 30 June 2017 was 81.7% inbound and 82.4%outbound. So the loads are pretty decent but not quite 90%+ or "consistently full year round".

Source: https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... FY2017.pdf - Page 25

If we look at the most recent BITRE publications for 2017-18, the monthly SQ loads for December 2017 and January 2018 (which are 2 of the more busier periods) are:

December 2017: Inbound 78.9%, Outbound 95.4%
January 2018: Inbound 94.5%, Outbound 78.7%

If we look at November 2017, a quieter month - Inbound 79%, Outbound 83.4%
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_789
 
sq256
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:00 am

zkncj wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

Makes senses considering NZ ex-AU as a key long haul growth market where they compete with VA/DL to the US. With QF moving to 330s, places VA at a weak spot across the Tasman from a product and frequency perspective.


Starting to think VA will just leave the Tasman, and move all its Tasman flights to TT. Now without Lounge access on the Tasman, and pretty bad Intentional J product there business market is now gone.


VA's interline and/or codeshare partners from SkyTeam will still want NZ feed. Possibly more likely that BNE/SYD/MEL-AKL/CHC and BNE/SYD-WLG will remain and possibly re-timed to feed into the SkyTeam bank in SYD/MEL/BNE with leisure timings (e.g Red-Eyes) to the 3 main NZ ports handed to TT.

VA's NZ leisure routes/destinations would either likely be handed to TT or dropped entirely.
 
redroo
Posts: 447
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:04 am

Things are starting to unravel for Virgin but there may be a bright side to this. It may force virgin to concentrate on its own business and not being a virtual network carrier (or whatever it was).

I do think they need to join an alliance - be that skyteam or star. They are always going to struggle against QF unless there is a consistent decent value proposition. Whilst I’d personally love them to join star, the logical thing to do would be to join skyteam with delta. Unfortunately JB is hampered somewhat by his crazy ownership structure.
 
zkncj
Posts: 2989
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:09 am

travelhound wrote:
Ending the alliance would allow ANZ more control of their destiny. If, as some have suggested ANZ increase flying to more Australian ports, the VA alliance would probably become a hindrance to their future plans.

It will be interesting to see how VA respond to this. They will be the smallest and without an alliance the weakest carrier in the trans-Tasman market.

From a strategy perspective, if QF increase their presence in the New Zealand market the best thing ANZ could do is scuttle their relationship with VA. This would allow ANZ to still grow whilst QF are going for a market share grab.

I think we will see a corresponding competitive response from QF in the next six months.


As of today NZ started there daily AKL-CHC-AKL 789 service, so they are defiantly up-to something. Maybe evening testing out how cost effective it is to run an 789 on an short-haul sector? Thinking they may try to enter the golden tri-angle with SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE services in the near future?
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 718
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:24 am

sq256 wrote:

VA's interline and/or codeshare partners from SkyTeam will still want NZ feed. Possibly more likely that BNE/SYD/MEL-AKL/CHC and BNE/SYD-WLG will remain and possibly re-timed to feed into the SkyTeam bank in SYD/MEL/BNE with leisure timings (e.g Red-Eyes) to the 3 main NZ ports handed to TT.

VA's NZ leisure routes/destinations would either likely be handed to TT or dropped entirely.


I'm not sure what "Skyteam bank" you're referring to? The only Skyteam partner that VA has is Delta who has 1 solitary daily flight into Australia (SYD) on their own metal. I doubt Delta is relying on NZ feed for their SYD-LAX service. I've excluded Alitalia and Aeromexico as they don't have flights into Aus.
VA have no relationship with any of the Skyteam members who have services in Australia, CI/MU/CZ/KE/VN.

As for VA's other partners:

SQ- No need for VA feed as they have their own flights to New Zealand and has a JV with NZ on SIN routes to/from New Zealand.
EY- Has their code on both VA and NZ flights, so losing VA feed still leaves them with NZ's code.
Others- Sure, the likes of HX and SA could use some VA feed out of NZ, but their ops into Australia aren't relying on NZ traffic.
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_789
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 718
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:02 am

zkncj wrote:

As of today NZ started there daily AKL-CHC-AKL 789 service, so they are defiantly up-to something. Maybe evening testing out how cost effective it is to run an 789 on an short-haul sector? Thinking they may try to enter the golden tri-angle with SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE services in the near future?


I wouldn't have thought so... :sarcastic:

Perhaps it's to utilise an aircraft with downtime that would otherwise be sitting at AKL :scratchchin:

To be competitive on SYD-MEL-BNE, you need multiple frequencies as well as being able to deploy widebodies at peak times. To capture the FF market in Australia, you also need a domestic network outside of SYD-MEL-BNE. Are you suggesting that Air NZ is about to commit to some significant investment in new widebodies and narrowbodies and enter a period of sustained losses with no return on capital?

History has shown that the Australian domestic market can only support 2 major players at most. At the moment there are effectively 2 players (JQ and TT are largely complimentary to QF and VA rather than being competitors). Why would NZ want to enter a market where QF and VA will fiercely defend their market share (as evidenced by the domestic capacity war a few years ago)?

Oh and please tell us where Air NZ is going to get those non-existent morning peak hour landing and take-off slots at SYD?
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_789
 
Qantas16
Posts: 611
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:51 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:17 pm

zkncj wrote:
travelhound wrote:
Ending the alliance would allow ANZ more control of their destiny. If, as some have suggested ANZ increase flying to more Australian ports, the VA alliance would probably become a hindrance to their future plans.

It will be interesting to see how VA respond to this. They will be the smallest and without an alliance the weakest carrier in the trans-Tasman market.

From a strategy perspective, if QF increase their presence in the New Zealand market the best thing ANZ could do is scuttle their relationship with VA. This would allow ANZ to still grow whilst QF are going for a market share grab.

I think we will see a corresponding competitive response from QF in the next six months.


As of today NZ started there daily AKL-CHC-AKL 789 service, so they are defiantly up-to something. Maybe evening testing out how cost effective it is to run an 789 on an short-haul sector? Thinking they may try to enter the golden tri-angle with SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE services in the near future?


Yeah that seems reasonable... :roll: it'll feed in well to their new SYD-LAX flights :stirthepot:
 
Obzerva
Posts: 297
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:44 pm

So predictions?

NZ to open up one or two regional Australian locations with a direct flight to AKL to feel in to their eastbound bank. Possibly CBR, HBA, NTL or pick your Qld airport. They’ll use displaced A320s from when the A321s come online.

VA will need to put TT across the ditch, they can’t compete on frequency, so they’ll need to compete on price. The question being does VA hang in there on some routes or do they completely TT it?

Questions
Who gets to codeshare on SQ’s MEL-WLG?

Will someone pull a random codeshare agreement with CI out on their Trans Tasman flights?

And everyone’s favourite question, which lounge do VA customers get to use on a VA flight across the ditch?
 
getluv
Posts: 317
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:10 pm

NZ will also lose access to domestic AU lounges and VA's frequent flyer base so everyone has something to lose. VA and NZ will have to use more aircraft to maintain frequencies and P2P traffic so the big winner here is QF (obviously). I don't expect any new routes in the short term. Everyone will be figuring each other's plans.

VA should just focus on developing its own niche and making it easier for its interline/codeshare partners to connect with them. This has always been a big issue and why so many airliners prefer to put their pax on QF for domestic connections in Australia. Even during irrops, NZ put their pax on QF flights.
You meant lose, not loose.
 
zkncj
Posts: 2989
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:01 pm

getluv wrote:
NZ will also lose access to domestic AU lounges and VA's frequent flyer base so everyone has something to lose. VA and NZ will have to use more aircraft to maintain frequencies and P2P traffic so the big winner here is QF (obviously). I don't expect any new routes in the short term. Everyone will be figuring each other's plans.


There had been talk that NZ was looking at obtaining some additional secondhand 777s in the recent months - if they can source some they could have them refitted and in service by November. They have already said they will increase the use of the 787/777 on the Tasman. Therefore it will free up some A320s ex-AKL to help cover the lost of VA.

Along with NZ is planning to have 220-230 Y seats on there A321NEOs so effectively an A320/738 flight now becomes one!
 
Planesmart
Posts: 2891
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:17 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
zkncj wrote:

As of today NZ started there daily AKL-CHC-AKL 789 service, so they are defiantly up-to something. Maybe evening testing out how cost effective it is to run an 789 on an short-haul sector? Thinking they may try to enter the golden tri-angle with SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE services in the near future?


I wouldn't have thought so... :sarcastic:

Perhaps it's to utilise an aircraft with downtime that would otherwise be sitting at AKL :scratchchin:

To be competitive on SYD-MEL-BNE, you need multiple frequencies as well as being able to deploy widebodies at peak times. To capture the FF market in Australia, you also need a domestic network outside of SYD-MEL-BNE. Are you suggesting that Air NZ is about to commit to some significant investment in new widebodies and narrowbodies and enter a period of sustained losses with no return on capital?

History has shown that the Australian domestic market can only support 2 major players at most. At the moment there are effectively 2 players (JQ and TT are largely complimentary to QF and VA rather than being competitors). Why would NZ want to enter a market where QF and VA will fiercely defend their market share (as evidenced by the domestic capacity war a few years ago)?

Oh and please tell us where Air NZ is going to get those non-existent morning peak hour landing and take-off slots at SYD?

Or maximising engine hours and cycles while there is a honeymoon period with RR following maintenance work.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6276
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:22 pm

zkncj wrote:
getluv wrote:
NZ will also lose access to domestic AU lounges and VA's frequent flyer base so everyone has something to lose. VA and NZ will have to use more aircraft to maintain frequencies and P2P traffic so the big winner here is QF (obviously). I don't expect any new routes in the short term. Everyone will be figuring each other's plans.


There had been talk that NZ was looking at obtaining some additional secondhand 777s in the recent months - if they can source some they could have them refitted and in service by November. They have already said they will increase the use of the 787/777 on the Tasman. Therefore it will free up some A320s ex-AKL to help cover the lost of VA.

Along with NZ is planning to have 220-230 Y seats on there A321NEOs so effectively an A320/738 flight now becomes one!


I doubt they could get 777’s in service that quickly myself. Plenty of wide body capacity and I agree you will see more but it comes from a bit of rescheduling plus 2 more 789’s coming this year, which 1 is available for short haul between long haul. I’d say current A320’s will stay longer with the NEO’s used for expansion.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 78
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:28 pm

Hobart to Ningbo freighter service could be just weeks away:

Paywalled article: http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/qantas-hopes-to-strike-deal-for-flights-from-tassie-to-asia-within-weeks/news-story/a8ee3d2f70fe750353afb8c01231030a

Summary:

Regulatory approval for HBA-NGB is the final hurdle; expected to be overcome within weeks
QF to operate a weekly 767 freighter from HBA-NGB transporting 50,000 litres of milk
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 78
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2018

Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:35 pm

Obzerva wrote:
So predictions?

NZ to open up one or two regional Australian locations with a direct flight to AKL to feel in to their eastbound bank. Possibly CBR, HBA, NTL or pick your Qld airport. They’ll use displaced A320s from when the A321s come online.



Let's hope so. Still can't believe no-one operates HBA-AKL - a weekly service was marginal over 30 years ago; the HBA market has grown more than five-fold from 0.5M to over 2.5M pax per year since then!
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