American cancels CNF-MIA

LPSHobby · Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:27 am

American is cancelling it´s CNF-MIA, source:

https://ponteaerea.net/2018/03/27/ameri ... horizonte/

in portuguese.

the speculation is that Latam GRU-BOS and Azul CNF-MCO killed this flights, alongside the terrible service AA provides with their jurassic 763s, that show regular technical problems/cancelations in this flight

par13del · Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:17 pm

Funny how the comfort of the 767 narrow cabin forcing airlines to NOT cram 3 3 3 in does not come into play in some markets....go figure...

BENAir01 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:17 pm

This is most likely where the plane for MIA-COR is coming from! The only question now is did they cancle CNF because they wanted to start COR, did they start COR because they wanted to end CNF, or was it a mix of both?

C010T3 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:37 pm

Either way, AA is leaving CNF just like they did POA, under heavy criticism as an unreliable carrier from litigation-loving Brazilians.

dfwjim1 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:36 pm

BENAir01 wrote:
This is most likely where the plane for MIA-COR is coming from! The only question now is did they cancle CNF because they wanted to start COR, did they start COR because they wanted to end CNF, or was it a mix of both?

Which airport is COR?

chepos · Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:41 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
BENAir01 wrote:
This is most likely where the plane for MIA-COR is coming from! The only question now is did they cancle CNF because they wanted to start COR, did they start COR because they wanted to end CNF, or was it a mix of both?

Which airport is COR?

Cordoba, Argentina

FSDan · Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:07 pm

par13del wrote:
Funny how the comfort of the 767 narrow cabin forcing airlines to NOT cram 3 3 3 in does not come into play in some markets....go figure...

It's less the seat width, and more the fact that AA hasn't touched Y class in their 763s for years... They are miles behind the competition with this particular aircraft - no PTVs, tired, old seats, and small overhead bins. It's a trip right back to the 90s. I'd happily ride a DL 763 on an 8+ hour flight any day because they have received a recent product investment, but I'd think twice before booking a long haul flight on an AA 763.

jumbojet · Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:17 pm

FSDan wrote:
par13del wrote:
Funny how the comfort of the 767 narrow cabin forcing airlines to NOT cram 3 3 3 in does not come into play in some markets....go figure...

It's less the seat width, and more the fact that AA hasn't touched Y class in their 763s for years... They are miles behind the competition with this particular aircraft - no PTVs, tired, old seats, and small overhead bins. It's a trip right back to the 90s. I'd happily ride a DL 763 on an 8+ hour flight any day because they have received a recent product investment, but I'd think twice before booking a long haul flight on an AA 763.

To clarify, AA's 763's don't even have in-seat PTV in J class. The FA's hand you a portable device which isn't even handed out until 10,000 feet and collected during initial decent. I'd call that archaic.

Pu752 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:30 pm

I always thought CNF was a good market for AA though. It is quite similar to MVD, both similar cities, operated by 763. I wonder if MVD might be the next to follow CNF.

Tailwinds13 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:40 pm

Pu752 wrote:
I always thought CNF was a good market for AA though. It is quite similar to MVD, both similar cities, operated by 763. I wonder if MVD might be the next to follow CNF.

MVD performs well enough for AA. I doubt they would cut the only route to Uruguay. CNF lost yields due to Azul’s MCO flight. COR was a very wise choice for AA, Argentina is growing tremendously and Argentinians will pay a little more for a direct flight. I predict COR will financially perform much better than CNF did.

MAH4546 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:43 pm

LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

chepos · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:48 pm

MVD performs very well, it helps it is the only nonstop link to the US. Hard to ever find an open flight with high fares. Not sure I would say CNF and MVD are in the same boat.

ahj2000 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:55 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

Confirmed or a guess?

MAH4546 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:14 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

Confirmed or a guess?

A guess. It becomes the largest local market between the U.S. and any foreign country without a non-stop.

winGl3t · Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:23 pm

LATAM seems to be struggling with fleet availability for open this route.
I suspect Azul will increase frequency on CNF-MCO or launch CNF-FLL and enjoy the feed it can generate out of CNF

rrlopes · Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:27 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

Confirmed or a guess?

A guess. It becomes the largest local market between the U.S. and any foreign country without a non-stop.

Well, not really, as Azul covers it currently.

rrlopes · Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:31 pm

The article is also saying that there are other reductions in the AA's schedule to Brazil. Namely:

- "Reduction in one of three frequencies to GRU". I assume they mean a reduction from 3 daily to 2 daily, but it's not absolutely clear from how it's written.
- Cancelling of the seasonal DFW-GIG
- JFK-GIG kept as seasonal

MAH4546 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:46 pm

rrlopes wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
Confirmed or a guess?

A guess. It becomes the largest local market between the U.S. and any foreign country without a non-stop.

Well, not really, as Azul covers it currently.

No, it does not. Azul serves Miami (FLL) from VCO, REC and BEL.

dcajet · Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:57 pm

rrlopes wrote:
The article is also saying that there are other reductions in the AA's schedule to Brazil. Namely:

- "Reduction in one of three frequencies to GRU". I assume they mean a reduction from 3 daily to 2 daily, but it's not absolutely clear from how it's written.
- Cancelling of the seasonal DFW-GIG
- JFK-GIG kept as seasonal

Correct. And trimming one LAX-GRU frequency to free up equipment to fly LAX-EZE. LAX-GRU goes from 5x w to 4x w.

thgsr08 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:06 pm

rrlopes wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
Confirmed or a guess?

A guess. It becomes the largest local market between the U.S. and any foreign country without a non-stop.

Well, not really, as Azul covers it currently.

There's no AC for AD to improve fligths or create CNF-FLL. JJ is soon back at the game!

adamh8297 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:18 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

Confirmed or a guess?

A guess. It becomes the largest local market between the U.S. and any foreign country without a non-stop.

Though served via a 3rd city wouldn't NYC-MNL/SIN be larger. What about NYC-India/Pakistan other than BOM/DEL?

NYCVIE · Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:59 am

MAH4546 wrote:
rrlopes wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

A guess. It becomes the largest local market between the U.S. and any foreign country without a non-stop.

Well, not really, as Azul covers it currently.

No, it does not. Azul serves Miami (FLL) from VCO, REC and BEL.

But Azul flies CNF-MCO.

incitatus · Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:09 am

I find surprising that MIA-CNF has had a very variable number of frequencies over high and low season for many years. Recently AA had stuck to 6 x week or daily regardless of season. Then suddenly it is out of the market. Bipolar disorder?

Anyway, as I have said, I don't think US-Brazil is going to be an attractive market for a while. Moving capacity to Argentina is logical.

gatibosgru · Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:11 am

AD killed this. And GRU-BOS will only solidify it's demise.

MAH4546 · Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:16 am

gatibosgru wrote:
AD killed this. And GRU-BOS will only solidify it's demise.

Don’t be ridiculous. More people fly between Florida and Belo Horizonte in one month than between Boston and Belo Horizonte in one year. Newark is the biggest non-Florida market for CNF, not Boston.

But has Azul with its superior product and lower fares hurt AA in secondary Brazil? Absolutely.

NYCVIE wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
rrlopes wrote:

Well, not really, as Azul covers it currently.

No, it does not. Azul serves Miami (FLL) from VCO, REC and BEL.

But Azul flies CNF-MCO.

And? I said Miami, not Orlando.

PRGEC · Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:32 pm

rrlopes wrote:
The article is also saying that there are other reductions in the AA's schedule to Brazil. Namely:

- "Reduction in one of three frequencies to GRU". I assume they mean a reduction from 3 daily to 2 daily, but it's not absolutely clear from how it's written.
- Cancelling of the seasonal DFW-GIG
- JFK-GIG kept as seasonal

Actually the official release says that JFK-GIG will be reduced to 5 weekly and will return to daily to summer.

PRGEC · Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:20 pm

For quite some time AA has struggled with load factors in Brazil and one of the reasons was the attempt to force the yields up. I'm sure UA and mainly DL have wide opened eyes to this move from AA, which year by year sees its connections in Brazil decrease due to Latam's strategy.
JFK-GIG has been running 95% O/D for a long time, now that they are weakening Kennedy's hub i'm not really impressed by the reduction. Hopefully Delta will take it over, as they seem to intent to.

Rafabozzolla · Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:34 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

Source?

Before the takeover by LAN, TAM had a non stop on the route, but did not last long. CNF is an ordinary station for them, I doubt they will create this flight.

Rafabozzolla · Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:40 pm

What seems odd to me is the fact that COR is a much, much smaller market.

dcajet · Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:44 pm

Rafabozzolla wrote:
What seems odd to me is the fact that COR is a much, much smaller market.

It is not a matter of absolute population numbers, but a case of per capita travel/income. Brazil has 5 times the population of Argentina; yet for travel to the US, which is what ultimately AA is more concerned with, Brazilian nationals only double Argentinians (roughly 1 M to 500K) in terms of arrivals. Furthermore, and again on a per capita basis, Argentinians are the most frequent international travelers in South America, spend more and for longer periods of time (vacation days).

FSDan · Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:00 pm

PRGEC wrote:
rrlopes wrote:
The article is also saying that there are other reductions in the AA's schedule to Brazil. Namely:

- "Reduction in one of three frequencies to GRU". I assume they mean a reduction from 3 daily to 2 daily, but it's not absolutely clear from how it's written.
- Cancelling of the seasonal DFW-GIG
- JFK-GIG kept as seasonal

Actually the official release says that JFK-GIG will be reduced to 5 weekly and will return to daily to summer.

It'll be 5x weekly in the Fall, daily from December through March, and then will not operate between April and the next December. So "seasonal" is the correct term.

MAH4546 · Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:32 pm

Rafabozzolla wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

Source?

Before the takeover by LAN, TAM had a non stop on the route, but did not last long. CNF is an ordinary station for them, I doubt they will create this flight.

It's a guess. The market is too big to ignore non-stop service. If not LATAM, then Azul.

There's also a bigger story here: while AA is no doubt being hurt by Azul, AA is also purposely cutting back and crying poor in Brazil in order to get it's LATAM JBA approved. And make no mistake, AA will promise things to get approval like "this will allow us to return to previously unsustainable markets like Belo Horizonte."

incitatus · Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:10 pm

dcajet wrote:

It is not a matter of absolute population numbers, but a case of per capita travel/income. Brazil has 5 times the population of Argentina; yet for travel to the US, which is what ultimately AA is more concerned with, Brazilian nationals only double Argentinians (roughly 1 M to 500K) in terms of arrivals. Furthermore, and again on a per capita basis, Argentinians are the most frequent international travelers in South America, spend more and for longer periods of time (vacation days).

Not sure the differences between Brazil and Argentina explain why Cordoba would be more attractive for service than Belo Horizonte. COR airport is 3 million pax/year airport while CNF is 10 million. CNF is a top 15 airport in Latin America with about the same passenger volume as EZE - even though EZE is much more a long-haul deal. It is hard to put numbers on gross metropolitan product, but Cordoba's economy is at best half the size of that of Belo Horizonte. I think American is looking down the road and seeing investment in Argentina, and a recovery in travel in Brazil that is more based on budget travelers heading to Florida. It is pretty clear where the money is - in the medium term.

bsbisland · Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:07 pm

incitatus wrote:
dcajet wrote:

It is not a matter of absolute population numbers, but a case of per capita travel/income. Brazil has 5 times the population of Argentina; yet for travel to the US, which is what ultimately AA is more concerned with, Brazilian nationals only double Argentinians (roughly 1 M to 500K) in terms of arrivals. Furthermore, and again on a per capita basis, Argentinians are the most frequent international travelers in South America, spend more and for longer periods of time (vacation days).

Not sure the differences between Brazil and Argentina explain why Cordoba would be more attractive for service than Belo Horizonte. COR airport is 3 million pax/year airport while CNF is 10 million. CNF is a top 15 airport in Latin America with about the same passenger volume as EZE - even though EZE is much more a long-haul deal. It is hard to put numbers on gross metropolitan product, but Cordoba's economy is at best half the size of that of Belo Horizonte. I think American is looking down the road and seeing investment in Argentina, and a recovery in travel in Brazil that is more based on budget travelers heading to Florida. It is pretty clear where the money is - in the medium term.

Argentina's second city airport being only 3 mi pax/year is extremely low compared to the rest of Latin America, specially considering Argentina has "the most frequent international travelers in South America".

dcajet · Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:14 pm

bsbisland wrote:
incitatus wrote:
dcajet wrote:

It is not a matter of absolute population numbers, but a case of per capita travel/income. Brazil has 5 times the population of Argentina; yet for travel to the US, which is what ultimately AA is more concerned with, Brazilian nationals only double Argentinians (roughly 1 M to 500K) in terms of arrivals. Furthermore, and again on a per capita basis, Argentinians are the most frequent international travelers in South America, spend more and for longer periods of time (vacation days).

Not sure the differences between Brazil and Argentina explain why Cordoba would be more attractive for service than Belo Horizonte. COR airport is 3 million pax/year airport while CNF is 10 million. CNF is a top 15 airport in Latin America with about the same passenger volume as EZE - even though EZE is much more a long-haul deal. It is hard to put numbers on gross metropolitan product, but Cordoba's economy is at best half the size of that of Belo Horizonte. I think American is looking down the road and seeing investment in Argentina, and a recovery in travel in Brazil that is more based on budget travelers heading to Florida. It is pretty clear where the money is - in the medium term.

Argentina's second city airport being only 3 mi pax/year is extremely low compared to the rest of Latin America, specially considering Argentina has "the most frequent international travelers in South America".

Those other airports have more domestic service than COR - they also serve countries like yours, with 5x more population. On a per capita basis and for leisure trips, what I stated is factual. More population does not necessarily translate into more international service.

PRGEC · Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:22 am

The point is that Belo Horizonte is a much more developed city than Cordoba and this is a fact. I remember someone posting here that EZE-COR-MIA flight used to be 60% filled with Bs As outbound passengers before it was cancelled. City population wasn't even stated, it was only compared the number of pax/year of each airport.
AA is going against many airlines in Brazil which see their flights getting profitable every month since the Brazilian economy started recovering and, by consequence, are increasing the offer.
I'll keep my statement, the problem is not Brazil or any of its cities, the problem is in AA, which has had many problems with precification in the last years and lost market to United and Delta.
I am heavly changing my mind about this boom of flights in Argentina, we got to remember that its economy still has serious problems and I do not belive it has come from water to wine in 3 years.

BreezyIAH · Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:16 am

Probably just a little too far for the 738 max right?

millionsofmiles · Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:20 am

I realize that the Brazilian economy might be partially to blame for the suspension of CNF, but I was based in MIA during the 90s, and flew CNF frequently as a tag-end. At first, it has MIA-GRU-CNF, but with the addition of GRU-MVD, ASU, and POA, it was quickly switched to MIA-GIG-CNF. We carried decent loads in and out of CNF. There was a healthy cargo business in auto parts. And it was cheaper to park the 767-300 all day in CNF than in GRU or GIG.

Maybe we should go back to tag-end flying. AA did quite a bit of it in South America back in the 90s, though tag-ends as a percentage of the total operation didn't approach the level that Eastern or Braniff operated in their day.

gatibosgru · Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:22 am

ojjunior wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

And when this happens you all gonna miss the "archaic" AA service...
LATAM sucks in all ways.

Comparing JJ's 763s to AA's is almost comical.

ojjunior · Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:23 am

MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

And when this happens you all gonna miss the "archaic" AA service...
LATAM sucks in all ways.

andrefranca · Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:19 am

C010T3 wrote:
Either way, AA is leaving CNF just like they did POA, under heavy criticism as an unreliable carrier from litigation-loving Brazilians.

Agreed, I am yet to find a Brazilian who is positive about AA... charge for everything, crappy service, old and smelly planes, often on the news for the wrong reasons (recently AA staff attacked each other in GRU) the list is long... and about the litigation... well our consumer laws are clear: if you are a multi-million dollar company and can not get your acts together you will pay for the damage... I sued AF due to their pilot strike in 2014 that left me 4 days stranded and won.... their lawyer statement: "the staff has the right to strike!" judge's answer: "right so book your customers on other airlines and let them strike for years if they like it".

reffado · Sat Mar 31, 2018 4:28 am

[*]

ojjunior wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

And when this happens you all gonna miss the "archaic" AA service...
LATAM sucks in all ways.

While I’ll agree that LATAM is pretty awful, particularly on the narrowbody side of operations, their 763 product is immensely superior to AA’s. And, while LATAM is no price champion either, they’re usually cheaper than AA which doesn’t help American’s case at all.

aaexp · Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:02 am

And then there is the 800 pound gorilla in the room that no-one has mentioned: COPA. They may technically not fly non-stop to MIA from CNF, but the short stop in PTY is acceptable to many when you compare their prices to what AA was charging for their old 763's on the non-stop.

Rafabozzolla · Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:25 pm

aaexp wrote:
And then there is the 800 pound gorilla in the room that no-one has mentioned: COPA. They may technically not fly non-stop to MIA from CNF, but the short stop in PTY is acceptable to many when you compare their prices to what AA was charging for their old 763's on the non-stop.

I think you´re right, COPA does attract the low yielding pax looking for a way, any sort of way, to get to the US. Meanwhile, I´m stranded with a ton of AAdvantage miles, which, if I want to use, will mean paying for a flight to GRU (since AA never has availability on domestic LATAM).

And, unfortunately I won´t change my loyalty to COPA. Their service, especially in J is even lower standard than AA´s.

WA707atMSP · Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:42 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Rafabozzolla wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LATAM will enter the market soon enough.

Source?

Before the takeover by LAN, TAM had a non stop on the route, but did not last long. CNF is an ordinary station for them, I doubt they will create this flight.

It's a guess. The market is too big to ignore non-stop service. If not LATAM, then Azul.

There's also a bigger story here: while AA is no doubt being hurt by Azul, AA is also purposely cutting back and crying poor in Brazil in order to get it's LATAM JBA approved. And make no mistake, AA will promise things to get approval like "this will allow us to return to previously unsustainable markets like Belo Horizonte."

I think MAH's comments are 100% accurate. It is much easier to get a JBA approved when it's presented as a combination of a strong airline (LATAM) and a weak airline (AA) than it is to get a JBA approved between two strong airlines. Look at the problems AA has had with approvals of their alliances with BA and QF.

I think AA would have been far more likely to try to make their weaker Brazil flights improve if they were not trying to get a JBA approved.

Rafabozzolla · Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:42 pm

How come is AA a weak airline? I don´t really get it.

chepos · Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:59 pm

Rafabozzolla wrote:
How come is AA a weak airline? I don´t really get it.

I do not think that is an accurate statement, considering AA is the biggest US carrier in South America. AA flies to more Brazilian stations than UA or DL.

Rafabozzolla · Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:07 pm

chepos wrote:
Rafabozzolla wrote:
How come is AA a weak airline? I don´t really get it.

I do not think that is an accurate statement, considering AA is the biggest US carrier in South America. AA flies to more Brazilian stations than UA or DL.

Not my words, I was questioning WA707atMSP who said that.

MAH4546 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:08 pm

Rafabozzolla wrote:
How come is AA a weak airline? I don´t really get it.

Well they do have the worst product among domestic airlines, but I would not call them weak. There is a strategy behind what they are doing in Brazil, to avoid the mistakes with the Australia and UK JBA approvals. Because they are strong in Brazil, that will hurt this process.

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