Future U.S. Expansion Possibilities For Aer Lingus

chepos · Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:38 pm

LAS. CLT???? It would struggle with AA on the route already (seasonal) and little cooperation between the two at the moment.

msycajun · Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:58 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Louisiana has been pushing hard for DUB-MSY nonstop, before the end of 2019.

From one of the state's top economic development and tourism bureaus, after the launch of LHR-MSY and FRA-MSY:

http://www.louisianaweekly.com/new-orle ... n-decades/

That article is nearly 2 years old.
Depends on what the IAG thinks, if their BA flight is doing well, EI is a possibility for MSY. If the IAG thinks BA still needs to mature, they won’t do EI just yet.

I was surprised to see DUB being mentioned. But with BA already here, maybe it is a good way for IAG to segment the market and discourage other LCCs from setting up at MSY. BA gets the premium nonstop London traffic and DUB allows them to capture more tourist and connecting traffic. Would be great if EI operated on the days that BA doesn't.

georgiabill · Tue Mar 27, 2018 5:17 pm

I hope DUB-PIT-DUB becomes a reality within the next 3 to 5 years

Kevinflyer · Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:15 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I hope DUB-PIT-DUB becomes a reality within the next 3 to 5 years

Agreed,

PIT is one of the few big Rust Belt cities that has been doing well over the past 20 or so years.

I felt it amazing that international service(s) to it are quite limited.

As for EI I think PIT, MSP, DTW, and BNA would be great additions. The first 3 have large Irish American populations and business links with Europe. BA is going to Nashville so why not EI?

I think another Northeastern city such as PVD would be a good target as well. If Norwegian doesn't have that market cornered already.

stratocruiser · Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:47 am

Kevinflyer wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I hope DUB-PIT-DUB becomes a reality within the next 3 to 5 years

Agreed,

PIT is one of the few big Rust Belt cities that has been doing well over the past 20 or so years.

I felt it amazing that international service(s) to it are quite limited.

As for EI I think PIT, MSP, DTW, and BNA would be great additions. The first 3 have large Irish American populations and business links with Europe. BA is going to Nashville so why not EI?

I think another Northeastern city such as PVD would be a good target as well. If Norwegian doesn't have that market cornered already.

I would also add CLE to the selection of possibilities - big Irish-American population and very limited European connections. CVG might be another possibility for the A321LR as it currently only offers services to Paris and Keflavik.

Kevinflyer · Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:01 pm

stratocruiser wrote:
Kevinflyer wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I hope DUB-PIT-DUB becomes a reality within the next 3 to 5 years

Agreed,

PIT is one of the few big Rust Belt cities that has been doing well over the past 20 or so years.

I felt it amazing that international service(s) to it are quite limited.

As for EI I think PIT, MSP, DTW, and BNA would be great additions. The first 3 have large Irish American populations and business links with Europe. BA is going to Nashville so why not EI?

I think another Northeastern city such as PVD would be a good target as well. If Norwegian doesn't have that market cornered already.

I would also add CLE to the selection of possibilities - big Irish-American population and very limited European connections. CVG might be another possibility for the A321LR as it currently only offers services to Paris and Keflavik.

Both would be good options too. BWI is another one for the same demographic reasons as CLE. Could be too close to IAD though where EI appears to have a small presence for a European carrier. Then again Baltimore has closer ties to Ireland then DC does. Ex. Big Irish-American community and a number of Irish companies have their North American presence based in the area.

flymco753 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:27 pm

I'm surprised TPA hasn't been mentioned on here at 2 or 3x weekly. It would require an A330 but it's doable. TPA doesn't have Norwegian yet so I think EI would be safe to doing DUB.

FLYKTPA · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:36 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I'm surprised TPA hasn't been mentioned on here at 2 or 3x weekly. It would require an A330 but it's doable. TPA doesn't have Norwegian yet so I think EI would be safe to doing DUB.

TPA was mentioned in post 11, 24, and 34. As EI continues their U.S. expansion, I feel like TPA is bound to happen eventually. Will it be added before the likes of LAS, DFW, and DEN? Probably not. But 2-3x weekly service makes sense for them to add in a few years, especially as more A330's become available.

flymco753 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:41 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I'm surprised TPA hasn't been mentioned on here at 2 or 3x weekly. It would require an A330 but it's doable. TPA doesn't have Norwegian yet so I think EI would be safe to doing DUB.

TPA was mentioned in post 11, 24, and 34. As EI continues their U.S. expansion, I feel like TPA is bound to happen eventually. Will it be added before the likes of LAS, DFW, and DEN? Probably not. But 2-3x weekly service makes sense for them to add in a few years, especially as more A330's become available.

Ah, didn't see that, thank you. You're right though, even alternating days from MCO similarly to how Edelweiss is running would be a good idea, TPA and MCO are essentially working as a Central Florida link right now.

flyingclrs727 · Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:49 pm

stlgph wrote:
Oh good. This is only the third or fourth time we've had this same topic posted this year and still NO ONE has mentioned Corpus Christi?

If EI flew to DFW, AA would charge as much to fly a passenger from CRP to connect at DFW as EI would charge to fly from DFW to DUB.

stratocruiser · Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:40 pm

Although some of the airports mentioned above such as PDX, ANC, MSY and AUS might nominally be within the range of the 321LR from Ireland, they might become borderline destinations westbound in terms of range with a full payload when you consider the almost inevitable headwind component they will face particularly in winter. I think for this reason most of the new 321LR routes are likely to be to destinations a little closer than these (and indeed there are a lot of strong candidates in the northeastern states) but it will be interesting to see if EI decides to push the routes out towards the aircraft's range limit. EI certainly did this in their early jet days when they used 720s to New York but these flights were frequently forced to make technical stops for fuel.

I note the comments above with regard to TPA, but I think this could be a possible new A330 route and indeed the proximity of MCO would allow them to dip their toes in the water as it were operating a low frequency initially (perhaps just one or two flights a week) as they could easily transfer crews up and down the road between their TPA and MCO operations to avoid long layovers. Other than TPA, I would see potential future 330 destinations as most likely being LAS, DEN, PHX and DFW. I agree SAN may be a possibility but I think this might depend on how strongly LAX performs as I don't think they would otherwise want to risk drawing traffic away from their LAX operation. A route that hasn't been mentioned is YVR and given the increasing numbers of Irish living and working in Vancouver, I could see EI going head to head with Rouge on this route at some stage in the future although given its proximity to SEA this may depend on how the SEA route performs.

At the end of the day however, I'm sure that the direction of any route expansion for EI will be dependant on IAG's plans for BA and I would be surprised if many destinations earmarked as future BA routes from LHR would also be launched by EI although I may be wrong in this assumption given current slot limitations at LHR which are likely to persist for quite a few years to come.

Midwestindy · Tue May 01, 2018 8:27 pm

Sorry if this was already posted, but I think this will reveal some pretty interesting info for everyone. Some of it has already been shared and some of it hasn't
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/aer-ling ... k-pilling/

"Aer Lingus has launched a Request for Information for Commercial Support for Transatlantic Network Development (RFI). The process presents a unique opportunity for North American airports and their local communities to invest alongside Aer Lingus in the introduction or expansion of Aer Lingus service. Multiple studies have shown the economic multiplier benefits of international air service. Aer Lingus would operate to Dublin, Europe’s fastest growing transatlantic hub, offering both US Customs and Border Protection pre-clearance and extensive onward connectivity throughout Europe."

"The process is extended to both airports not yet served by Aer Lingus for new route opportunity and those already served by Aer Lingus, for increased capacity/frequencies. The process applies to both the A321LR aircraft as well as existing A330 aircraft, as wide-body capacity may become available by substitution with the new A321LR aircraft."

"Airports along with local government, business and tourism bodies are invited to submit information to assist in building the commercial and operational case to operate a new direct route by 6th April, 2018. Shortlisted airport meetings will take place at the end of April at Routes Europe, followed by an official announcement of 2019 destinations in early May.

List of US airports at Routes Europe:
AUS
BWI
DTW
ATL
JAX
MCI
MEM
IAD
SWF
ONT
PBI
PVD
SAT
SEA
RSW
TPA

rj777 · Tue May 01, 2018 8:53 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
"The airline opens a Dublin-Philadelphia route Sunday. Kavanagh said Aer Lingus will announce new U.S. destinations for 2019 later this year"

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... er-lingus/
My new destination predictions:
A321- MKE, CLE, PIT, DTW, MSP, BUF, RDU, CLT, IND, and CVG.
A330- SAN, DEN, LAS, DFW, and TPA.

What new U.S. destinations do you think Aer Lingus will announce later this year?

I think that MKE could handle an A330! I remember several years back during some bad weather, KLM Asia parked a 747 at what used to be the E concourse!

klm617 · Tue May 01, 2018 8:55 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Sorry if this was already posted, but I think this will reveal some pretty interesting info for everyone. Some of it has already been shared and some of it hasn't
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/aer-ling ... k-pilling/

"Aer Lingus has launched a Request for Information for Commercial Support for Transatlantic Network Development (RFI). The process presents a unique opportunity for North American airports and their local communities to invest alongside Aer Lingus in the introduction or expansion of Aer Lingus service. Multiple studies have shown the economic multiplier benefits of international air service. Aer Lingus would operate to Dublin, Europe’s fastest growing transatlantic hub, offering both US Customs and Border Protection pre-clearance and extensive onward connectivity throughout Europe."

"The process is extended to both airports not yet served by Aer Lingus for new route opportunity and those already served by Aer Lingus, for increased capacity/frequencies. The process applies to both the A321LR aircraft as well as existing A330 aircraft, as wide-body capacity may become available by substitution with the new A321LR aircraft."

"Airports along with local government, business and tourism bodies are invited to submit information to assist in building the commercial and operational case to operate a new direct route by 6th April, 2018. Shortlisted airport meetings will take place at the end of April at Routes Europe, followed by an official announcement of 2019 destinations in early May.

List of US airports at Routes Europe:
AUS
BWI
DTW
ATL
JAX
MCI
MEM
IAD
SWF
ONT
PBI
PVD
SAT
SEA
RSW
TPA

Interesting that really the only viable candidates there are BWI, DTW and ATL

slvfly · Tue May 01, 2018 9:39 pm

TyroneShoes wrote:
continental004 wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Oh good. This is only the third or fourth time we've had this same topic posted this year and still NO ONE has mentioned Corpus Christi?

Selena Quintanilla Perez will forever be the legend from Corpus Christi

When are y'all gonna change the name of your airport to:
Corpus Christi - Selena Quintanilla Perez International Airport

This is the content I come here for.

LAX772LR · Wed May 02, 2018 12:15 am

Midwestindy wrote:
List of US airports at Routes Europe:
AUS
BWI
DTW
ATL
JAX
MCI
MEM
IAD
SWF
ONT
PBI
PVD
SAT
SEA (Seattle - Tacoma International Airport)
RSW
TPA

Where did this list come from? Source?

FLYKTPA · Wed May 02, 2018 12:39 am

rj777 wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
"The airline opens a Dublin-Philadelphia route Sunday. Kavanagh said Aer Lingus will announce new U.S. destinations for 2019 later this year"

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... er-lingus/
My new destination predictions:
A321- MKE, CLE, PIT, DTW, MSP, BUF, RDU, CLT, IND, and CVG.
A330- SAN, DEN, LAS, DFW, and TPA.

What new U.S. destinations do you think Aer Lingus will announce later this year?

I think that MKE could handle an A330! I remember several years back during some bad weather, KLM Asia parked a 747 at what used to be the E concourse!

It’s not really a question of if MKE can physically handle a 330. The real question is can they fill one?

Midwestindy · Wed May 02, 2018 12:41 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
List of US airports at Routes Europe:
AUS
BWI
DTW
ATL
JAX
MCI
MEM
IAD
SWF
ONT
PBI
PVD
SAT
SEA (Seattle - Tacoma International Airport) (Seattle - Tacoma International Airport)
RSW
TPA

Where did this list come from? Source?

https://www.routesonline.com/events/192 ... tendeeList

WaywardMemphian · Wed May 02, 2018 12:56 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Selfishly I want to see DEN (decent chance) and IAH (definately won't happen before DFW). I'd also love to see MEM with the A321neo.

I see STL being a good route with the A321neo, still a good-sized metro area and a good sized AA FF base without TATL on a EU or US legacy, they could give WOW a run for their money.

http://www.anna.aero/2017/09/13/kansas- ... om-europe/

I could see MEM getting a go at it. Considering this doesn't take in to account other Euro travelers that fly in elsewhere and then drive to Memphis that could with such a flight.

Air Canada started their second daily from MEM today.

BWIAirport · Wed May 02, 2018 1:00 am

Recent activity from DE, FI, and WW have proved BWI is capable of sustaining international service. I would be shocked if it is not one of the airports selected for service by Aer Lingus.

smokeybandit · Wed May 02, 2018 1:15 am

BWI is sinking a ton of money into its international terminal, too.

HTCone · Wed May 02, 2018 1:45 am

EI used to serve BWI with the A330 before moving over to IAD, then suspending the service during the recession before returning to IAD. With the ending of their codeshare with UA on the horizon, and UA also serving IAD-DUB, there might not be the demand for 3 flights to DUB so close together geographically in that region.

CHI2DFW · Wed May 02, 2018 1:47 am

This is starting to get ridiculous. What’s next, the never being built Peotone - SNN as pure gold?

NWADTWE16 · Wed May 02, 2018 3:58 am

DTW & RSW nice, lucky day if that comes true. They'd have SW FL all to themselves as most would choose DUB over the EW options, and well, we already know they would be beating DY to the DTW Intl middle, long overlooked. Kudos EI, bring these 2 cities home

LAX772LR · Wed May 02, 2018 7:00 am

CHI2DFW wrote:
This is starting to get ridiculous. What’s next, the never being built Peotone - SNN as pure gold?

Exactly what is "ridiculous" about customers having more OPTIONS to CHOOSE their longhaul gateway??

Market fragmentation has been the consistent trend for transatlantic flights since the mid-'70s. As smaller and more efficient aircraft are developed that have range capability to cross the pond, more/new markets will receive nonstops that couldn't have been supported in the past.

How's that a bad thing?

MAH4546 · Wed May 02, 2018 8:30 am

NWADTWE16 wrote:
DTW & RSW nice, lucky day if that comes true. They'd have SW FL all to themselves as most would choose DUB over the EW options, and well, we already know they would be beating DY to the DTW Intl middle, long overlooked. Kudos EI, bring these 2 cities home

When over 90% of RSW's Europe traffic is to/from Germany, why would "most" choose to connect in Dublin? Southwest Florida is loved by Germans and pretty much nobody else in Europe.

axiom · Wed May 02, 2018 8:38 am

MAH4546 wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
DTW & RSW nice, lucky day if that comes true. They'd have SW FL all to themselves as most would choose DUB over the EW options, and well, we already know they would be beating DY to the DTW Intl middle, long overlooked. Kudos EI, bring these 2 cities home

When over 90% of RSW's Europe traffic is to/from Germany, why would "most" choose to connect in Dublin? Southwest Florida is loved by Germans and pretty much nobody else in Europe.

I was just about to type this.

I'm also unsure about BWI. My understanding is that IAD struggles to maintain a daily service as is, although the growth of the A321LR fleet might offset this problem.

stratocruiser · Wed May 02, 2018 9:47 am

axiom wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
DTW & RSW nice, lucky day if that comes true. They'd have SW FL all to themselves as most would choose DUB over the EW options, and well, we already know they would be beating DY to the DTW Intl middle, long overlooked. Kudos EI, bring these 2 cities home

When over 90% of RSW's Europe traffic is to/from Germany, why would "most" choose to connect in Dublin? Southwest Florida is loved by Germans and pretty much nobody else in Europe.

I was just about to type this.

I'm also unsure about BWI. My understanding is that IAD struggles to maintain a daily service as is, although the growth of the A321LR fleet might offset this problem.

Although I think it struggled during its first years of operation, EI now seems to be doing alright on IAD where it had load factors of 80-90%+ for most of 2017 except for January (70%), February (61%) and March (78%). However, I agree, adding BWI at this stage might just eat into their IAD figures.

axiom · Wed May 02, 2018 12:04 pm

stratocruiser wrote:
axiom wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

When over 90% of RSW's Europe traffic is to/from Germany, why would "most" choose to connect in Dublin? Southwest Florida is loved by Germans and pretty much nobody else in Europe.

I was just about to type this.

I'm also unsure about BWI. My understanding is that IAD struggles to maintain a daily service as is, although the growth of the A321LR fleet might offset this problem.

Although I think it struggled during its first years of operation, EI now seems to be doing alright on IAD where it had load factors of 80-90%+ for most of 2017 except for January (70%), February (61%) and March (78%). However, I agree, adding BWI at this stage might just eat into their IAD figures.

Thanks for the figures. EI alternates between the 752 and the 332 on this route, the latter which might be more fitting. Last time I flew the route - about two weeks ago - the load factor was pretty terrible on the 332 (35%?), though of course one observation doesn't make a pattern.

Contrary to many posters, I maintain that TPA is on the shortlist here. Non-London UK demand for TPA is the airport's largest untapped international market, and if EI doesn't start this someone like MT will. The airport's recent success in attracting and growing international capacity, combined with solid subsidies, make this a pretty safe bet. Stimulating Anglo regional demand to a coastal Florida metropolis with a solid local business market could sustain services on the 332 a few times a week. BA, LH, WK, and FI all sustain service to MCO and TPA (and have leveraged both to sell holidays, in some cases), so I hardly see that as an issue.

FLYKTPA · Wed May 02, 2018 12:26 pm

axiom wrote:
stratocruiser wrote:
axiom wrote:

I was just about to type this.

I'm also unsure about BWI. My understanding is that IAD struggles to maintain a daily service as is, although the growth of the A321LR fleet might offset this problem.

Although I think it struggled during its first years of operation, EI now seems to be doing alright on IAD where it had load factors of 80-90%+ for most of 2017 except for January (70%), February (61%) and March (78%). However, I agree, adding BWI at this stage might just eat into their IAD figures.

Thanks for the figures. EI alternates between the 752 and the 332 on this route, the latter which might be more fitting. Last time I flew the route - about two weeks ago - the load factor was pretty terrible on the 332 (35%?), though of course one observation doesn't make a pattern.

Contrary to many posters, I maintain that TPA is on the shortlist here. Non-London UK demand for TPA is the airport's largest untapped international market, and if EI doesn't start this someone like MT will. The airport's recent success in attracting and growing international capacity, combined with solid subsidies, make this a pretty safe bet. Stimulating Anglo regional demand to a coastal Florida metropolis with a solid local business market could sustain services on the 332 a few times a week. BA, LH, WK, and FI all sustain service to MCO and TPA (and have leveraged both to sell holidays, in some cases), so I hardly see that as an issue.

TPA actually received an invitation from Aer Lingus to submit an application for DUB-TPA. I wouldn’t be surprised if TPA and EI met in Spain at Routes Europe.

Pepper456 · Thu May 03, 2018 12:06 am

Does EI do DUB-RDU??? If not it would work no??? Or DUB-SEA??? DUB could be an airport like MAD in medium term...

HTCone · Thu May 03, 2018 12:39 am

Pepper456 wrote:
Does EI do DUB-RDU??? If not it would work no??? Or DUB-SEA??? DUB could be an airport like MAD in medium term...

EI starting DUB-SEA in a couple of weeks.

Any airport that gurantees to plug any revenue shortfalls like BDL did has a decent chance I’d say.

ruskistl · Thu May 03, 2018 1:04 am

Does attendance at this thing vary by year? Disheartening to see KCI and MEM send representatives but not STL.

WaywardMemphian · Thu May 03, 2018 1:19 am

ruskistl wrote:
Does attendance at this thing vary by year? Disheartening to see KCI and MEM send representatives but not STL.

Do you want BA and Heathrow on a 787 or do you want Quasi-LCC Aer Lingus in a mostly single class 220 seat A321LR. There's a little business traffic but MEM would for the most part be leasure travelers from Westwrn Europe mostly for the music heritage aspect of Memphis and the Delta. It would complement BA's BNA and MSY service but fit the Memphis profile better.

I would figure that would be IAG's main focus, BA for the routes with a little more business and Aer Lingus for the nearly all leasure traveler.

Midwestindy · Thu May 03, 2018 1:37 am

ruskistl wrote:
Does attendance at this thing vary by year? Disheartening to see KCI and MEM send representatives but not STL.

Very much changes year-over-year
Last year attendees from US were
AUS, BDL, ORD, CLE, DFW, DTW, IAH, MCI, STL, LAS, MSY, MIA, BNA, ONT, SFB, PBI, PVD, SAT, RSW, and SYR
https://www.routesonline.com/events/188 ... tendeeList

flydude380 · Thu May 03, 2018 7:39 am

The contenders which I think would be great or would like to see are: DFW, IAH (maybe), AUS (if BA maybe pull out), DTW, CLT, TPA, DEN and perhaps BNA and MSY (if BA pull out). I kind of think SAN would be nice to see to a certain extent.

For Canadian destinations, I would say YUL and YVR. Maybe even YEG.

Caribbean destinations and Mexico would be great additions perhaps. MBJ maybe with a tag to another Caribbean destination. And for Mexico, maybe MEX or CUN?

I also hope EI continues to get more A321LR and A330s!!

LAX772LR · Thu May 03, 2018 8:29 am

flydude380 wrote:
AUS (if BA maybe pull out), DTW, CLT, TPA, DEN and perhaps BNA and MSY (if BA pull out).

Both AUS and MSY have over the last year generated higher load factors than several of BA's long-existing routes, on flights that fairly often price into the 5 digits two weeks out... they're not going anywhere.

stratocruiser · Thu May 03, 2018 9:42 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
Does attendance at this thing vary by year? Disheartening to see KCI and MEM send representatives but not STL.

Do you want BA and Heathrow on a 787 or do you want Quasi-LCC Aer Lingus in a mostly single class 220 seat A321LR. There's a little business traffic but MEM would for the most part be leasure travelers from Westwrn Europe mostly for the music heritage aspect of Memphis and the Delta. It would complement BA's BNA and MSY service but fit the Memphis profile better.

I would figure that would be IAG's main focus, BA for the routes with a little more business and Aer Lingus for the nearly all leasure traveler.

EI's A321LRs will not be single class 220 seat aircraft, but, like their current 757s, they will be fitted around 177 seats including 12 lie-flat business class seats. Their business seating receives a lot of compliments and their economy seating is no worse than that of the US big three or BA and, unlike any of the US big three, they have achieved a 4-star Skytrax award for service. Although I don't see MEM as being high on EI's priority list of potential new destinations, at the end of the day the final decision will probably lie with their lord and master IAG. If there isn't a lot of business traffic then IAG may not want to waste a valuable Heathrow slot by sending BA to MEM in which case they may steer EI in that direction.

WaywardMemphian · Thu May 03, 2018 12:17 pm

stratocruiser wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
Does attendance at this thing vary by year? Disheartening to see KCI and MEM send representatives but not STL.

Do you want BA and Heathrow on a 787 or do you want Quasi-LCC Aer Lingus in a mostly single class 220 seat A321LR. There's a little business traffic but MEM would for the most part be leasure travelers from Westwrn Europe mostly for the music heritage aspect of Memphis and the Delta. It would complement BA's BNA and MSY service but fit the Memphis profile better.

I would figure that would be IAG's main focus, BA for the routes with a little more business and Aer Lingus for the nearly all leasure traveler.

EI's A321LRs will not be single class 220 seat aircraft, but, like their current 757s, they will be fitted around 177 seats including 12 lie-flat business class seats. Their business seating receives a lot of compliments and their economy seating is no worse than that of the US big three or BA and, unlike any of the US big three, they have achieved a 4-star Skytrax award for service. Although I don't see MEM as being high on EI's priority list of potential new destinations, at the end of the day the final decision will probably lie with their lord and master IAG. If there isn't a lot of business traffic then IAG may not want to waste a valuable Heathrow slot by sending BA to MEM in which case they may steer EI in that direction.

According to Anna Aero there were 91,000 and some change that indirectly flew TATL to MEM in either 2016 or 2017, I forget which. Using their Austin case study, they cod capture 50% percent of that in the first year and doesn't take in to account the future stimulation that the direct route may generate. So over a year, a 177 seat configuration plane could theoretically do 3x to 4x weekly pretty easy. OF course, there's seasonality issues,.I could see.it vary from 2x to 5x weekly. But...here's the thing about that, the River cruise business has gone year round and is still expanding and one of the major Elvis events that seems to bring in internationals is in Feburary. USA Today just named Memphis the #1 place to visit in May.

izbtmnhd · Thu May 03, 2018 12:48 pm

enilria wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
"The airline opens a Dublin-Philadelphia route Sunday. Kavanagh said Aer Lingus will announce new U.S. destinations for 2019 later this year"

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... er-lingus/
My new destination predictions:
A321- MKE, CLE, PIT, DTW, MSP, BUF, RDU, CLT, IND, and CVG.
A330- SAN, DEN, LAS, DFW, and TPA.

What new U.S. destinations do you think Aer Lingus will announce later this year?

CLE is likely hideous for the 2 Iceland carriers. EI must be smarter than to jump into that.
MKE, IND, PIT, DTW, BWI, CMH likely
ORF, CVG, BUF maybe
I don't think CLT/RDU are within range? Certainly not CLT.

Oh Lord. Most people commenting on a.nut constantly kept CLE out of any discussion of TATL service and would always mention CMH as more "viable". Now CLE has two carriers while CMH still has zero which makes the CLE situation "hideous". OK. Whatever.

I think all these airports have a reasonable chance of scoring EI. I'm sure subsidies will play a large role.

enilria · Thu May 03, 2018 1:08 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
"The airline opens a Dublin-Philadelphia route Sunday. Kavanagh said Aer Lingus will announce new U.S. destinations for 2019 later this year"

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... er-lingus/
My new destination predictions:
A321- MKE, CLE, PIT, DTW, MSP, BUF, RDU, CLT, IND, and CVG.
A330- SAN, DEN, LAS, DFW, and TPA.

What new U.S. destinations do you think Aer Lingus will announce later this year?

CLE is likely hideous for the 2 Iceland carriers. EI must be smarter than to jump into that.
MKE, IND, PIT, DTW, BWI, CMH likely
ORF, CVG, BUF maybe
I don't think CLT/RDU are within range? Certainly not CLT.

Oh Lord. Most people commenting on a.nut constantly kept CLE out of any discussion of TATL service and would always mention CMH as more "viable". Now CLE has two carriers while CMH still has zero which makes the CLE situation "hideous". OK. Whatever.

I think all these airports have a reasonable chance of scoring EI. I'm sure subsidies will play a large role.

Two new carriers on the same route previously unserved is pretty much by definition hideous. Has nothing to do with it being CLE. DFW is likely very similar with 3 carriers! Unserved markets just don't ramp up fast enough to support that kind of growth. Even after they ramp up the question then turns to yield because a) very hard to fill all those new seats and b) each carrier will be trying to push the other out in order to make the market long term viable.

ruskistl · Thu May 03, 2018 6:27 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
Does attendance at this thing vary by year? Disheartening to see KCI and MEM send representatives but not STL.

Do you want BA and Heathrow on a 787 or do you want Quasi-LCC Aer Lingus in a mostly single class 220 seat A321LR. There's a little business traffic but MEM would for the most part be leasure travelers from Westwrn Europe mostly for the music heritage aspect of Memphis and the Delta. It would complement BA's BNA and MSY service but fit the Memphis profile better.

I would figure that would be IAG's main focus, BA for the routes with a little more business and Aer Lingus for the nearly all leasure traveler.

Of course BA/Heathrow sounds better. But Saint Louis has a psychological problem, a massive inferiority complex that's been pushing local talent away for decades. We're getting passed over for the likes of Nashville, Denver, Indy, Louisville, etc .... these were cowtowns comparatively 10/20 years ago. For far too long STL drags its feet too long while the powers that be get their act together.

Would BA be the better option? Sure. But STL can no longer afford to wait for the very best option. We gotta be scrapping for the BA and the EI and the WOW and anyone else that is looking to grow.

Let Lambert be that funky airport full of pink and green planes. It's been 27 years since Icahn sold our London routes. 21 years since MD was bought by Boeing. It's been 10 years since Anheuser-Busch was ransacked. It's been 11 years since we lost A.G. Edwards. We're about to lose Monsanto. We'll still have a respectable number of Fortune 500/1000 companies. But we've got to stop acting like we're too big, too good for anything.

Sorry, rant over.

RL757PVD · Thu May 03, 2018 7:06 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
The process applies to both the A321LR aircraft as well as existing A330 aircraft, as wide-body capacity may become available by substitution with the new A321LR aircraft."

AUS
BWI
DTW
ATL
JAX
MCI
MEM
IAD
SWF
ONT
PBI
PVD
SAT
SEA
RSW
TPA

The only A321 airports on that list are BWI DTW PVD IAD and SWF

axiom · Thu May 03, 2018 8:18 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
The process applies to both the A321LR aircraft as well as existing A330 aircraft, as wide-body capacity may become available by substitution with the new A321LR aircraft."

AUS
BWI
DTW
ATL
JAX
MCI
MEM
IAD
SWF
ONT
PBI
PVD
SAT
SEA
RSW
TPA

The only A321 airports on that list are BWI DTW PVD IAD and SWF

Not sure what you're getting at. The 321s will free up 330s for other routes.

WaywardMemphian · Thu May 03, 2018 8:32 pm

axiom wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
The process applies to both the A321LR aircraft as well as existing A330 aircraft, as wide-body capacity may become available by substitution with the new A321LR aircraft."

AUS
BWI
DTW
ATL
JAX
MCI
MEM
IAD
SWF
ONT
PBI
PVD
SAT
SEA
RSW
TPA

The only A321 airports on that list are BWI DTW PVD IAD and SWF

Not sure what you're getting at. The 321s will free up 330s for other routes.

No one really knows the effective range of the A321LR till it actally starts flying routes

Dublin in Nautical Miles from:
MEM=3,553
MCI=3,527
STL=3,407
BNA=3,344
CVG=3,203

LAX772LR · Thu May 03, 2018 9:16 pm

stratocruiser wrote:
unlike any of the US big three, they have achieved a 4-star Skytrax award

...which in all actually, doesn't mean (nor accomplish) squat.
Let's keep it real.

ruskistl wrote:
We're getting passed over for the likes of Nashville, Denver, Indy, Louisville, etc .... these were cowtowns comparatively 10/20 years ago. For far too long STL drags its feet too long while the powers that be get their act together.

Meh, could be worse.

You could've been an established major city for a century before ATL, DFW, IAH, or MIA were founded... yet watch them all outgrow you by a factor of 5+.

~signed,
New Orleans metro

klm617 · Thu May 03, 2018 9:31 pm

enilria wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
enilria wrote:
CLE is likely hideous for the 2 Iceland carriers. EI must be smarter than to jump into that.
MKE, IND, PIT, DTW, BWI, CMH likely
ORF, CVG, BUF maybe
I don't think CLT/RDU are within range? Certainly not CLT.

Oh Lord. Most people commenting on a.nut constantly kept CLE out of any discussion of TATL service and would always mention CMH as more "viable". Now CLE has two carriers while CMH still has zero which makes the CLE situation "hideous". OK. Whatever.

I think all these airports have a reasonable chance of scoring EI. I'm sure subsidies will play a large role.

Two new carriers on the same route previously unserved is pretty much by definition hideous. Has nothing to do with it being CLE. DFW is likely very similar with 3 carriers! Unserved markets just don't ramp up fast enough to support that kind of growth. Even after they ramp up the question then turns to yield because a) very hard to fill all those new seats and b) each carrier will be trying to push the other out in order to make the market long term viable.

Thank you for always being the voice of reason on this forum always seeing things objectively saying things sometimes that people don't want to hear you have my greatest respect sir.

ruskistl · Fri May 04, 2018 1:53 am

LAX772LR wrote:
stratocruiser wrote:
unlike any of the US big three, they have achieved a 4-star Skytrax award

...which in all actually, doesn't mean (nor accomplish) squat.
Let's keep it real.

ruskistl wrote:
We're getting passed over for the likes of Nashville, Denver, Indy, Louisville, etc .... these were cowtowns comparatively 10/20 years ago. For far too long STL drags its feet too long while the powers that be get their act together.

Meh, could be worse.

You could've been an established major city for a century before ATL, DFW, IAH, or MIA were founded... yet watch them all outgrow you by a factor of 5+.

~signed,
New Orleans metro

New Orleans is less than 50 years older than Saint Louis, Saint Louis was in USA top 10 by population for over 100 years while NOLA was 70, NOLA growth forever limited drastically by geography.

But ultimately NOLA doesn't need to be big to be important. NOLA doesn't have the psychological, inferiority complex that STL does. NOLA embraces what makes it unique and doubles down. Saint Louis is forever trying to keep up with the Jones' and ends up shooting itself in the foot.

FLYKTPA · Fri May 04, 2018 2:22 am

"Shortlisted airport meetings will take place at the end of April at Routes Europe, followed by an official announcement of 2019 destinations in early May"
If true, we should hear about new routes shortly.

Midwestindy · Fri May 04, 2018 2:31 am

FLYKTPA wrote:
"Shortlisted airport meetings will take place at the end of April at Routes Europe, followed by an official announcement of 2019 destinations in early May"
If true, we should hear about new routes shortly.

Correct!

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