Andy33
Posts: 2089
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:23 am

cedarjet wrote:
A little bit of small print ain’t much. EasyJet are moving their entire fleet from the G- reg to the OE- reg, that’s a pretty big step!


They're moving a large part of their fleet to Austrian registry and an Austrian AOC, but not all of it.
The logic is : if there's a settlement that effectively means no change for aviation, they've incurred some admin charges in reflagging part of the fleet,.but that's all.
if there's no settlement at all, they can continue to fly their G registered planes on UK domestics and on routes from the UK to places covered by UK- destination country bilaterals rather than by ECAA membership, and their OE registered planes on any other route that doesn't go to the UK
if a compromise settlement is reached (most likely) they have considerable flexibility in how they continue to operate their network, depending on the exact terms.

The key issue in all of this is that in aviation most bookings open between 364 days and about 6 months before departure, depending on airline, though some Summer 2019 flights are already on sale. As a result it is really important to airlines and their customers the general public to know what the new rules are going to be right now, or more and more bookings are going to be "provisional".
I've yet to see any evidence that the UK started any kind of serious planning for this more than a very few months ago, or that the EU negotiators have done any more than sit back with big smirks on their faces. No politicians anywhere seem to care at all.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 2041
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:13 pm

I think the Guardian would report the good news about Brexit - if there were any. May's government could be seen as almost criminally negligent in its lack of preparation for a Brexit in whatever form it may happen. And that government seems to have lost control on what will happen and that because they never really knew what they wanted to happen. It is almost like a rebellious teenager announcing they are going to leave home. Parents know it can well happen, but that it will not happen well.

Where are the tens of thousands of technocrats being trained for multitudes of careful studies, visiting throughout the world and becoming knowledgeable about what needs to be done for the interim? They cannot start negotiating until next year, but they need to be ready to spring into action. Where are the medical people being trained for all of the positions that immigrants have heretofore filled. Where are the machinery and construction people being prepared for managing customs areas?

The aviation report, to post some good news, was well prepared. There is a link somewhere on the site, and worth reading. I read the whole thing carefully. It discusses in detail what needs to be done. That respected group of technocrats would have standing throughout the aviation world. Has May made any appointments and given authority to any of them to come up with a variety of position papers? I think not.

The report discusses the various 'brexits' UK and EU may experience, and how each of them might work. But it does not protect the UK from all the sand traps as negotiations are conducted around the world. Those Ryan flights will probably take place, but guess what country will have to make the concessions in other areas to allow it to happen if negotiators are having to haywire agreements on the fly.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2054
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:13 am

Who knows what the brain-impaired politicians in the UK will come up aviation wise. They're certainly no strangers to not understanding commercial aviation, nor trying to strangle it economically (APD) or politically (lack of developing infrastructure), nor suck up to the political leanings du-jour (NIMBY pampering).

As such it is certainly not outside the realms of possibility, the UK may force a UK/EU aviation pact to contain language along the lines of '3rd party airlines shall not operate flights between the UK and a EU member state'. Which would bankrupt Ryanair in a very short span of time, unless they obtain a UK AOC and drastically overhaul their route planning, i.e. only UK registered aircraft operating UK-EU services. Wizz would also feel the squeeze as, in such a scenario, they'd only be allowed to operate UK services from Hungary. Norwegian has a UK AOC, as does Easy obviously, so they could manage their way around a 'no 3rd party' restriction.

As for transatlantic services from the UK, it may well end with a reversal to the Bermuda II agreement, which will see joint ventures between UK and US based airlines being discontinued. Whilst that will be bad for AA/BA and VS/DL, as their ability to control the market will diminish, for the consumer it will mean increased competition, resulting in lower prices and/or better service.
From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
 
Jomar777
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:27 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

Although It might sound political - which is not the case of this site - I really must point out that there's an enormous mistake in thinking that it is all for UK to do and lose on Brexit. EU does have to push for agreements too you know? They need the UK market and usually being tough in one area might bring issues on others like imports. We seem to have an inferiority complex when dealing with Brexit as if we always have to look up to the might EU.

The UK will still have a formidable economy and LHR, for example, will still be a very important Hub.


That is an argument one does hear from the UK side. But in this case the size and the importance of the UK market for the EU, about 10%, is vastly overrated and the importance of the EU market for the UK, about 50% is vastly underrated. The UK will have to accept that the EU will not overthrow its founding principles for the UK, because that is what the UK is asking of the EU. The UK alone is not a formidable economy. It is very big on services, especially banking and that can well go down the drain in a hard Brexit.
Just a look at GDP numbers 2017 from the IMF. EU 19,362,129 million USD, Germany 3,651,871, France 2,574,807, UK 2,565,051 about 13 % of the EU.

In regards to airlines and travel, yes there should not be big problems to come to an agreement, but is there time? It is one year left until the UK leaves. And it is not only the big bad EU. The USA seems to be offering less of a deal in a bilateral, than the EU has with the USA, with offering only the standard variation the USA has with most other countries.
There is much traffic flowing from Europe through the UK to the USA and that will be influenced by a UK USA bilateral. Even when the EU and the UK agree on UK airlines being able to be owned by EU companies and vice versa and perhaps capotage in the agreement between the UK and EU, what will the USA accept? So we can have traffic flows and ownership regulation that could depend on finishing a new UK USA bilateral.
The biggest problem is the uncertainty about the rules when everything changes in a years time.


The argument is not a UK one but a REALISTIC one. You are not precise I am afraid when you state that the UK market for the EU is overrated. The UK IS EU's biggest partner. Yet, form an UK perspective, the trade balance with the EU is negative (we import more than export) meaning that we would take our customer elsewhere. Just this last week, Reuters was reporting that, with the lack of an agreement, the German Automobile Industry would get about a 10% hit overall with BMW and VW getting a bigger impact.

I am not telling that the EU should beg the UK to agree to terms. Absolutely not. I just stating a clear fact: the situation is much more balanced than people actually believe.

now Aviation: only one year to agree? Agree. Will it be a problem, I doubt it. Expect a "business as usual transition period" until an overall agreement is reached. If we stop the whole thing as feared, a lot of business would go to the wall in the UK AND in the EU. Actually, I would say that BA is better prepared than. let's say, Air France for example. It already makes part of a big Group which has Iberia and Air Lingus on it on it so they could find provisional solutions on their own. Easyjet has already an EU entity and Ryanair will certainly find a solution (they always do...).

Something for all to consider: in the height of the Cold War, when we were due to have a Nuclear Strike any time of the day, we still had flights between the West and the USSR Block by airlines from both sides. Tightly regulated but existent. We are nowhere near that tension with the EU (I personally do not see Germany threatening the UK with bombs...). Just so you put things in perspective.
 
User avatar
Jayafe
Posts: 1152
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:12 pm

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:46 am

B777LRF wrote:
... the UK may force a UK/EU aviation pact to contain language along the lines of...


As if the UK was in a position of forcing anything... :rotfl:
 
ei146
Posts: 162
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:54 pm

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:04 am

B777LRF wrote:
As such it is certainly not outside the realms of possibility, the UK may force a UK/EU aviation pact to contain language along the lines of '3rd party airlines shall not operate flights between the UK and a EU member state'.


This won't happen, the EU can't allow this. Else it would give up one of the four freedoms, the freedom to establish and provide services (meaning every EU company can offer their services in all of the EU, e.g. Irish Ryanair can fly from every EU airport). The four freedoms belong to the very foundation of EU.
You should not go to a negotiation with a requirement to the other side to give up a fundamental position, one that is the very foundation of its existance.You don't request the pope to become Muslim. Because this won't help you, it will just end the negotiation. It may be difficult to grasp for some politicions, because their fundamental positions tend to be more flexible.
 
YIMBY
Posts: 400
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:53 pm

Richard28 wrote:
The problem here though, is in the (hopefully unlikely) event of no EU27/UK aviation deal, then it would not only be FR that cannot fly the route, it would be everyone, so no alternatives would be possible.


That would be very disappointing outcome. That is unfortunately not that unlikely.

Negotiating, signing and ratifying the agreements takes a lot of time. The agreements oblige the signing countries to put what was agreed with the partner to their legislation which also takes time. Only thereafter will they be operative. Sometimes it is sufficient to make a blanco law, sometimes more massive legislative changes are required.

The countries can also change their laws independently by their own parliamentary decisions. UK can - and essentially must - make unilateral interim decisions to
- allow travellers with EU27/Schengen passports to enter the country (for 90 days or so)
- allow EU27/EEA airlines to operate to, from and in the UK (with some restrictions)
even if there were no guarantee for similar concessions in EU27 (not for lack of will, but for lack of time). Would there be bureaucratic obstacles from EU side that cannot be circumvented by unilateral UK decisions?

If bilaterals with USA and other countries cannot be made in time, similar unilateral interim concessions should be made for them, not to isolate UK completely from the rest of the world. That may hurt UK based airlines if there is no reciprocal concession from the other side, but a complete isolation would hurt the country much more. The US government can be very fast in their decisions, though they are faster to break than to build. AFIY the UK has a bilateral with Russia, unless that is terminated for retaliation.

The problem with unilateral interim solutions is that they reduce the future negotiation power. If the British government is very hard, they do not take that route. In the worst case that leads to a complete or partial isolation for an indefinite time.
 
leghorn
Posts: 491
Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:13 am

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:07 pm

This is how you protect yourself from Brexit:
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... an-pilots/
You re-focus on the wealthiest market in the E.U.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 6993
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:37 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

Although It might sound political - which is not the case of this site - I really must point out that there's an enormous mistake in thinking that it is all for UK to do and lose on Brexit. EU does have to push for agreements too you know? They need the UK market and usually being tough in one area might bring issues on others like imports. We seem to have an inferiority complex when dealing with Brexit as if we always have to look up to the might EU.

The UK will still have a formidable economy and LHR, for example, will still be a very important Hub.


That is an argument one does hear from the UK side. But in this case the size and the importance of the UK market for the EU, about 10%, is vastly overrated and the importance of the EU market for the UK, about 50% is vastly underrated. The UK will have to accept that the EU will not overthrow its founding principles for the UK, because that is what the UK is asking of the EU. The UK alone is not a formidable economy. It is very big on services, especially banking and that can well go down the drain in a hard Brexit.
Just a look at GDP numbers 2017 from the IMF. EU 19,362,129 million USD, Germany 3,651,871, France 2,574,807, UK 2,565,051 about 13 % of the EU.

In regards to airlines and travel, yes there should not be big problems to come to an agreement, but is there time? It is one year left until the UK leaves. And it is not only the big bad EU. The USA seems to be offering less of a deal in a bilateral, than the EU has with the USA, with offering only the standard variation the USA has with most other countries.
There is much traffic flowing from Europe through the UK to the USA and that will be influenced by a UK USA bilateral. Even when the EU and the UK agree on UK airlines being able to be owned by EU companies and vice versa and perhaps capotage in the agreement between the UK and EU, what will the USA accept? So we can have traffic flows and ownership regulation that could depend on finishing a new UK USA bilateral.
The biggest problem is the uncertainty about the rules when everything changes in a years time.


The argument is not a UK one but a REALISTIC one. You are not precise I am afraid when you state that the UK market for the EU is overrated. The UK IS EU's biggest partner. Yet, form an UK perspective, the trade balance with the EU is negative (we import more than export) meaning that we would take our customer elsewhere. Just this last week, Reuters was reporting that, with the lack of an agreement, the German Automobile Industry would get about a 10% hit overall with BMW and VW getting a bigger impact.

I am not telling that the EU should beg the UK to agree to terms. Absolutely not. I just stating a clear fact: the situation is much more balanced than people actually believe.

now Aviation: only one year to agree? Agree. Will it be a problem, I doubt it. Expect a "business as usual transition period" until an overall agreement is reached. If we stop the whole thing as feared, a lot of business would go to the wall in the UK AND in the EU. Actually, I would say that BA is better prepared than. let's say, Air France for example. It already makes part of a big Group which has Iberia and Air Lingus on it on it so they could find provisional solutions on their own. Easyjet has already an EU entity and Ryanair will certainly find a solution (they always do...).

Something for all to consider: in the height of the Cold War, when we were due to have a Nuclear Strike any time of the day, we still had flights between the West and the USSR Block by airlines from both sides. Tightly regulated but existent. We are nowhere near that tension with the EU (I personally do not see Germany threatening the UK with bombs...). Just so you put things in perspective.


Let us now see this realistic approach from you. The EU as a whole, exporting 9% of there goods to the UK will have great difficulties to find new markets and the UK, exporting 50% of their goods to the EU will have no difficulties to find new markets. Very logical. :sarcastic: :silly:
Regarding the UK service industry, especially banking, nearly a one way street to the EU, will have of course also no problem with loosing its biggest market. :sarcastic:
Did I get that right?

Regarding aviation, the big problem will be to make a new bilateral with the uninterested USA, even if the EU and UK will work something out inside a year.
 
Jomar777
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Ryanair protecting itself from a hard Brexit

Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:38 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

That is an argument one does hear from the UK side. But in this case the size and the importance of the UK market for the EU, about 10%, is vastly overrated and the importance of the EU market for the UK, about 50% is vastly underrated. The UK will have to accept that the EU will not overthrow its founding principles for the UK, because that is what the UK is asking of the EU. The UK alone is not a formidable economy. It is very big on services, especially banking and that can well go down the drain in a hard Brexit.
Just a look at GDP numbers 2017 from the IMF. EU 19,362,129 million USD, Germany 3,651,871, France 2,574,807, UK 2,565,051 about 13 % of the EU.

In regards to airlines and travel, yes there should not be big problems to come to an agreement, but is there time? It is one year left until the UK leaves. And it is not only the big bad EU. The USA seems to be offering less of a deal in a bilateral, than the EU has with the USA, with offering only the standard variation the USA has with most other countries.
There is much traffic flowing from Europe through the UK to the USA and that will be influenced by a UK USA bilateral. Even when the EU and the UK agree on UK airlines being able to be owned by EU companies and vice versa and perhaps capotage in the agreement between the UK and EU, what will the USA accept? So we can have traffic flows and ownership regulation that could depend on finishing a new UK USA bilateral.
The biggest problem is the uncertainty about the rules when everything changes in a years time.


The argument is not a UK one but a REALISTIC one. You are not precise I am afraid when you state that the UK market for the EU is overrated. The UK IS EU's biggest partner. Yet, form an UK perspective, the trade balance with the EU is negative (we import more than export) meaning that we would take our customer elsewhere. Just this last week, Reuters was reporting that, with the lack of an agreement, the German Automobile Industry would get about a 10% hit overall with BMW and VW getting a bigger impact.

I am not telling that the EU should beg the UK to agree to terms. Absolutely not. I just stating a clear fact: the situation is much more balanced than people actually believe.

now Aviation: only one year to agree? Agree. Will it be a problem, I doubt it. Expect a "business as usual transition period" until an overall agreement is reached. If we stop the whole thing as feared, a lot of business would go to the wall in the UK AND in the EU. Actually, I would say that BA is better prepared than. let's say, Air France for example. It already makes part of a big Group which has Iberia and Air Lingus on it on it so they could find provisional solutions on their own. Easyjet has already an EU entity and Ryanair will certainly find a solution (they always do...).

Something for all to consider: in the height of the Cold War, when we were due to have a Nuclear Strike any time of the day, we still had flights between the West and the USSR Block by airlines from both sides. Tightly regulated but existent. We are nowhere near that tension with the EU (I personally do not see Germany threatening the UK with bombs...). Just so you put things in perspective.


Let us now see this realistic approach from you. The EU as a whole, exporting 9% of there goods to the UK will have great difficulties to find new markets and the UK, exporting 50% of their goods to the EU will have no difficulties to find new markets. Very logical. :sarcastic: :silly:
Regarding the UK service industry, especially banking, nearly a one way street to the EU, will have of course also no problem with loosing its biggest market. :sarcastic:
Did I get that right?

Regarding aviation, the big problem will be to make a new bilateral with the uninterested USA, even if the EU and UK will work something out inside a year.


You ask you did get this right? Sorry but you did not. I am not even going through your trading figures because this is an aviation blog and we have already been warned about not going political here. But let's just say that you should review your facts and come back with reliable[b][i][/i][/b] sources to back whatever you are on. Above all on your statement that the Banking in the UK is nearly a one way street to the EU (if it was that way, Frankfurt would have taken this already - it was the Main Financial Hub when the EURO was created). Let's see what you come up to (or not...).

As for aviation, why do you think we need a new bilateral agreement with the US??? Our present one INDEPENDS to the EU already. We do not need a new one. With the EU, I agree, we need to have some sort of agreement but I have been telling all the time - it will come regardless of the kind of Brexit we face. There's no other way for both sides and will never be. End of.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos