Southwest may take 500 MAX 7

fcogafa · Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:57 pm

Some quotes from the Southwest CEO in a Leeham article:

- Southwest Airlines needs about 100 more Boeing 737-8s before turning its.attention to the 737-7
- he expects that perhaps 60% of the fleet will eventually be the MAX 7
- Southwest looks at all aircraft, including the Bombardier CSeries—but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”
- Kelly has no interest in the Boeing 737-9 and might in the 737-10

https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/01/south ... more-26466

Stitch · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:02 pm

Well it always seemed logical with a fleet of so many 737-700 airframes and the 737-7 being upscaled to exactly 150 seats in a WN-style configuration that the model had a fair bit more life in it than some presumed / hoped.

BWIAirport · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:09 pm

fcogafa wrote:
- Kelly has no interest in the Boeing 737-9 and might in the 737-10

One would think the -10 would be extremely limited from MDW, one of their biggest hubs. Also, would it exceed gate size limits in terms of length? There are already gates at BWI (Concourse B, even-numbered gates) that can only fit the -700, as the -800 is too long. I imagine there are some airports (maybe BUR?) where the -800 is the limit of aircraft length. IMO, WN should only look at 20-30 MAX10s, if at all, for high-demand mid-continent routes, probably LAX/BWI/OAK/SEA/MCO/FLL/DEN-HOU/DAL. I think it would be more effort than it's worth.

hivue · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:28 pm

fcogafa wrote:
but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”

So I guess the question is, how long will he be CEO? :duck:

Dominion301 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:32 pm

I've always thought WN's initial 737-7 order is just that and that the 7M7's success level will be on par with say that of the 735 rather than that of the 736 (or 731).

UWPAviation · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:32 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
- Kelly has no interest in the Boeing 737-9 and might in the 737-10

One would think the -10 would be extremely limited from MDW, one of their biggest hubs. Also, would it exceed gate size limits in terms of length? There are already gates at BWI (Concourse B, even-numbered gates) that can only fit the -700, as the -800 is too long. I imagine there are some airports (maybe BUR?) where the -800 is the limit of aircraft length. IMO, WN should only look at 20-30 MAX10s, if at all, for high-demand mid-continent routes, probably LAX/BWI/OAK/SEA/MCO/FLL/DEN-HOU/DAL. I think it would be more effort than it's worth.

MDW is there biggest hub. However I do not think WN needs the -10 at MDW. Midway is perfectly in the middle of the WN network where a 700 or 800 can easily reach anywhere in the WN destination tree just fine. However 757's do operate out of MDW (right now sports charters only), ATA used to use 757's regularly out of MDW. I do not see the size of a 900 or -10 being that big of an issue at MDW. More or less of they are just not needed there. Like you stated West coast to East Coast and vice-versa seems where that aircraft would fit.

cledaybuck · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:37 pm

fcogafa wrote:
he expects that perhaps 60% of the fleet will eventually be the MAX 7

Consider me skeptical.

N776AU · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:44 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
However 757's do operate out of MDW (right now sports charters only), ATA used to use 757's regularly out of MDW. I do not see the size of a 900 or -10 being that big of an issue at MDW. More or less of they are just not needed there.

Perhaps, but let's not forget the 757 has a just a little more horsepower than a 737-900

81819 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:47 pm

hivue wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”

So I guess the question is, how long will he be CEO?

Maybe he wants to retire early

Am I reading inbetween the lines correctly that these MAX 7 will be used for growth just as much as it will for replacement?

Stitch · Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:56 pm

hivue wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”

So I guess the question is, how long will he be CEO?

Well WN does not have a mandatory retirement age.

travelhound wrote:
Maybe he wants to retire early.

He stated in the article he does not see himself leaving anytime soon and I do not see the Board forcing him out anytime soon.

N776AU wrote:
UWPAviation wrote:
However 757's do operate out of MDW (right now sports charters only), ATA used to use 757's regularly out of MDW. I do not see the size of a 900 or -10 being that big of an issue at MDW. More or less of they are just not needed there.

Perhaps, but let's not forget the 757 has a just a little more horsepower than a 737-900

Well the concern was gate length, not field performance.

That being said, depending on how far they would fly, TOW might be low enough that field performance is not a critical concern.

travelhound wrote:
Am I reading inbetween the lines correctly that these MAX 7 will be used for growth just as much as it will for replacement?

Well at 150-seats they can hold about 5% more people (7 seats) than the 737-700 in a WN configuration so WN could support mild traffic growth with them.

ILS28ORD · Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:00 pm

ATA and NW/DL used to operate the 757 at MDW. So the 737-10 fits. Question is would it be powerful enough to take off from the 6000ft runways. It could probably be used on high density routes to Florida and the east coast from MDW.

iceberg210 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:07 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well it always seemed logical with a fleet of so many 737-700 airframes and the 737-7 being upscaled to exactly 150 seats in a WN-style configuration that the model had a fair bit more life in it than some presumed / hoped.

This does give one more faith in the 7 having a shot. After Southwest delayed 23 out of the 30 on order I was beginning to think it'd end up as the 737-600 of the Max's but would happily be proven wrong. The fact is it'll live and die with Southwest, and to a lesser extent Westjet, so as long as they pick them up then it'll do okay. The interesting thing is that will help it find other homes, if there's a couple hundred out there it'll be a lot more interesting than if there's only a few dozen which I think it's fair to say has been a risk the 7 and the 319neo have been running for a while now. I show 58 total orders for the 7 in my spreadsheet (would be really nice if Boeing would breakdown models) and the big question to me is how many of the other 200+ 737maxes Southwest has on order currently and what they order in the future will be 7's. Sounds like more than we might have guessed which is great news for the model.

evank516 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:07 pm

ILS28ORD wrote:
ATA and NW/DL used to operate the 757 at MDW. So the 737-10 fits. Question is would it be powerful enough to take off from the 6000ft runways. It could probably be used on high density routes to Florida and the east coast from MDW.

My guess is if they had a STOL package for the 737NG then they probably have it for the MAX as well to help with this.

MIflyer12 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:16 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
- Kelly has no interest in the Boeing 737-9 and might in the 737-10

One would think the -10 would be extremely limited from MDW, one of their biggest hubs. Also, would it exceed gate size limits in terms of length? There are already gates at BWI (Concourse B, even-numbered gates) that can only fit the -700, as the -800 is too long. I imagine there are some airports (maybe BUR?) where the -800 is the limit of aircraft length. IMO, WN should only look at 20-30 MAX10s, if at all, for high-demand mid-continent routes, probably LAX/BWI/OAK/SEA/MCO/FLL/DEN-HOU/DAL. I think it would be more effort than it's worth.

It looks like WN's first 837-800 order was a conversion of twenty -700 orders in 2010. Now Planespotters.net shows there are 188 -800s in the fleet along with 13 Max 8s.

http://investors.southwest.com/news-and ... 5-12-2010a

Do not underestimate the value of domestic upgauging in a world of rapidly rising pilot wages. The fraction of WN flights out of short runway airports isn't that large.

flyingclrs727 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:33 pm

evank516 wrote:
ILS28ORD wrote:
ATA and NW/DL used to operate the 757 at MDW. So the 737-10 fits. Question is would it be powerful enough to take off from the 6000ft runways. It could probably be used on high density routes to Florida and the east coast from MDW.

My guess is if they had a STOL package for the 737NG then they probably have it for the MAX as well to help with this.

But with the new levered landing gear being developed for the -10Max, it should have better field performance than the -9Max. Also MDW being more of a mid continent airport, the planes wouldn't have to carry the fuel loads that are necessary for transcons.

TWA772LR · Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:49 pm

hivue wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”

So I guess the question is, how long will he be CEO?

He's very popular among the employees and Wall St. He's gonna stick around for a while.

Although I hope he changes that stances and strong arms someone into a very good deal for CS100/E2 sized aircraft.

jplatts · Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:03 pm

WN has over 360 737-700 planes that are over 10 years old, and the oldest of WN's 737-700 planes are already over 20 years old. I do think that WN will order additional 737 MAX 7 planes prior to the retirement of its last 737-700 planes since WN does serve some smaller markets where a plane smaller than the 737-800/MAX 8 is a better fit and since WN still needs to order over 270 additional Boeing 737 MAX planes prior to retiring its last 737-700 planes.

ScottB · Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:03 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
I imagine there are some airports (maybe BUR?) where the -800 is the limit of aircraft length.

Long-term, aircraft length shouldn't be a problem at BUR with the terminal replacement moving forward.

airzona11 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:06 pm

The larger 73710 would be for the longer stage length routes. CA to NorthEast, maybe Hawaii, etc. Does not need to get in and out of MDW. The 737-7 already has upgauging built in over the 73G.

I also think there will continue NG 737s coming available that they can continue to purchase second hand. So many new planes being built, there will be many flooding second hand market.

WN has been very disciplined over the years with fleet planning and it has paid off, if it is not broke, why play with it?

NWAROOSTER · Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:09 pm

Southwest is like Donald Nyrop at Northwest Airlines. Southwest will keep flying the 737 until there are NONE available.
Donal Nyrop would only buy aircraft that could powered by Pratt & Whitney engines even thought better engines were available especially on the 747 and 757. :old:

WIederling · Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:11 pm

N776AU wrote:
... but let's not forget the 757 has a just a little more horsepower than a 737-900

It also will not stop at your fingers when you feed it.

OA940 · Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:04 pm

Honestly I could see WN getting up to 100 MAX 10's eventually. That would liberate a lot of the MAX 8's and MAX 7's for expansion, and they themselves would be used for growth as well. Anyone in their right mind could have figured out that WN would go 737 MAX 7, but I was surprised to hear they were looking into the CSeries. I know he said there's no chance, and there probably isn't, but my secret fanboying can't hold on anymore. Plus just imagine how purely awesome a CS100 would look in WN colours.

Now all we need is for EZY to order 200 A319neo's...

ctrabs0114 · Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:58 am

OA940 wrote:
Honestly I could see WN getting up to 100 MAX 10's eventually. That would liberate a lot of the MAX 8's and MAX 7's for expansion, and they themselves would be used for growth as well. Anyone in their right mind could have figured out that WN would go 737 MAX 7, but I was surprised to hear they were looking into the CSeries. I know he said there's no chance, and there probably isn't, but my secret fanboying can't hold on anymore. Plus just imagine how purely awesome a CS100 would look in WN colours.

Now all we need is for EZY to order 200 A319neo's...

I know it's easy to 'never say never' as far as WN and the CS100 or even a (hypothetical) 797, but crazier things have happened. It's safe to say that WN's business plan, particularly as it pertains to using 737s - and only 737s (save for a brief spell early in their history when they leased a few 727s from Braniff I - over 40+ years has proven profitable. It would certainly be a seismic change in strategy if WN decided to purchase or lease anything other than a 737.

ADrum23 · Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:05 am

If they are going to buy so many MAX 7's, why did they defer 23 of their existing orders until after 2023?

Newbiepilot · Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:27 am

This makes sense that one day they will need smaller planes again. While other airlines have shifted to larger planes, much of the Southwest network doesn’t need bigger equipment. Even with the feed they have in some of their hubs, routes like Albuquerque to San Diego, Louisville to Tampa, St Louis to Wichita, Omaha to Houston, etc don’t need 175 seat airplanes. Even 150 seats is quite a few when the other major airlines are using all regional jets on similar types of routes. Southwest has the enough CASM advantage with 737s compared to RJs that they don’t need the more efficient per seat larger 737s for the majority of their network. Southwest is unique in the United States.

737max8 · Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:35 am

^Somebody didn't read the article. They don't need them until then. For now they need more 800/MAX8 to balance the fleet between 700/MAX7 and 800/MAX8.

Right now it's around 500 to 200....give it a few more years and it's closer to 500 to 400.

barney captain · Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:46 am

He's very popular among the employees

There are several major unions that say otherwise.

ericm2031 · Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:49 am

Although MDW may be their biggest hub currently, they could easily route them around MDW. With DEN growing so rapidly, as well as potential for expansion at BWI and recent comments about LAS and recent commitment to PHX and potential T0 at LAX and Hawaii in general, there could be a need for further upgauging...not to mention if they decide to get more into the transcon business. The -800 was absorbed pretty easily and I could see a -10 doing the same.

I want them to commit to the MoM, but with their recent construction projects being tailored to the -800/-8, I don't think they can afford to go for a plane that may have the width of a widebody.

ScottB · Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:27 am

ADrum23 wrote:
If they are going to buy so many MAX 7's, why did they defer 23 of their existing orders until after 2023?

Well, I'd imagine part of it is that they already have over 500 73Gs in the fleet; they have also been successful in finding used 73Gs on attractive terms, with 18 pre-owned -700s added or planned to be added from the start of 2017 onward.

MSPNWA · Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:09 am

Unless WN drastically changes their business model and decides to contract-out operations, they will have a huge need for small to medium-sized narrowbodies. Once the 73Gs come up for retirement, the Max 7 is an obvious choice. I expect them to have a large fleet of Max 7s someday.

ikramerica · Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:23 am

I think part of the motivation behind deferring the -7 until later is that it's not worth it over the -700 in terms of added efficiency to retire -700s sooner. Maybe if fuel gets more expensive that will change. But right now, fly the -700s until the wings fall off. Then later replace them, maybe after a few PIPs make the -7 more efficient.

QXAS · Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:30 am

WNs boarding system allows for 180 seats max. 60 A, 60 B and 60 C. The 7M10 would have far more than 180 seats. Probably closer to 215 as an arbitrary number. So would WN add a D boarding group in that case?

chrisair · Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:10 am

737max8 wrote:
Right now it's around 500 to 200....give it a few more years and it's closer to 500 to 400.

A potential fleet size of 900 planes is just mind boggling to me. Heck even ~700 right now is a staggering number.

Ryga · Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:43 am

OA940 wrote:
Now all we need is for EZY to order 200 A319neo's...

Won’t be happening :spin:

XT6Wagon · Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:06 am

OA940 wrote:
Honestly I could see WN getting up to 100 MAX 10's eventually. That would liberate a lot of the MAX 8's and MAX 7's for expansion, and they themselves would be used for growth as well. Anyone in their right mind could have figured out that WN would go 737 MAX 7, but I was surprised to hear they were looking into the CSeries. I know he said there's no chance, and there probably isn't, but my secret fanboying can't hold on anymore. Plus just imagine how purely awesome a CS100 would look in WN colours.

Now all we need is for EZY to order 200 A319neo's...

I don't think so right now. My guess is WN won't touch a plane larger than the 738M till Boeing finishes the specification for the new middle market plane. If Boeing can work some magic and offer what they said they intend... Narrowbody capital costs with widebody capacity and operating costs....

Its just too close right now for them to buy a plane thats better in limited situations for them, but not as good as what might be.

n471wn · Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:23 am

ScottB wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
If they are going to buy so many MAX 7's, why did they defer 23 of their existing orders until after 2023?

Well, I'd imagine part of it is that they already have over 500 73Gs in the fleet; they have also been successful in finding used 73Gs on attractive terms, with 18 pre-owned -700s added or planned to be added from the start of 2017 onward.

However there are only 5 used 700’s at PAE undergoing refurbishment so hopefully WN will secure more. Does anyone know if they intend to acquire more—these refurbishments take about two weeks so they are running out of stock (as odd as that sounds!)

Momo1435 · Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:03 pm

n471wn wrote:
ScottB wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
If they are going to buy so many MAX 7's, why did they defer 23 of their existing orders until after 2023?

Well, I'd imagine part of it is that they already have over 500 73Gs in the fleet; they have also been successful in finding used 73Gs on attractive terms, with 18 pre-owned -700s added or planned to be added from the start of 2017 onward.

However there are only 5 used 700’s at PAE undergoing refurbishment so hopefully WN will secure more. Does anyone know if they intend to acquire more—these refurbishments take about two weeks so they are running out of stock (as odd as that sounds!)

From the latest investors presentation they will only add 4 pre-owned 737-700s to the fleet in 2018.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... ebsite.pdf

If there are only 5 left it's very likely that these are the last 5.

n471wn · Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:32 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
n471wn wrote:
ScottB wrote:

Well, I'd imagine part of it is that they already have over 500 73Gs in the fleet; they have also been successful in finding used 73Gs on attractive terms, with 18 pre-owned -700s added or planned to be added from the start of 2017 onward.

However there are only 5 used 700’s at PAE undergoing refurbishment so hopefully WN will secure more. Does anyone know if they intend to acquire more—these refurbishments take about two weeks so they are running out of stock (as odd as that sounds!)

From the latest investors presentation they will only add 4 pre-owned 737-700s to the fleet in 2018.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... ebsite.pdf

If there are only 5 left it's very likely that these are the last 5.

Thanks and I fear you are right but I was hopeful that in light of UA’s capacity buildup that they would buy more. Their load factor remains high.

dbo861 · Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:41 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
n471wn wrote:
ScottB wrote:

Well, I'd imagine part of it is that they already have over 500 73Gs in the fleet; they have also been successful in finding used 73Gs on attractive terms, with 18 pre-owned -700s added or planned to be added from the start of 2017 onward.

However there are only 5 used 700’s at PAE undergoing refurbishment so hopefully WN will secure more. Does anyone know if they intend to acquire more—these refurbishments take about two weeks so they are running out of stock (as odd as that sounds!)

From the latest investors presentation they will only add 4 pre-owned 737-700s to the fleet in 2018.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... ebsite.pdf

If there are only 5 left it's very likely that these are the last 5.

I wonder if this is because they’ve bought up all available 73Gs on the second hand market and if any more of them eventually become available, they’ll buy those too. Or if they’re actually done buying second hand 73Gs and only taking on brand new aircraft from this point forward.

Also, up until now they’ve only bought second hand 73Gs but as MAX8s get delivered to airlines and affordable used 738s become available on the market I wonder if they’ll consider used 738s as well.

AAvgeek744 · Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:57 am

MSPNWA wrote:
Unless WN drastically changes their business model and decides to contract-out operations, they will have a huge need for small to medium-sized narrowbodies. Once the 73Gs come up for retirement, the Max 7 is an obvious choice. I expect them to have a large fleet of Max 7s someday.

I would agree. They had their chance to go smaller but let the 717's go to DL. The MAX-7 fleet will be quite large one day.

aemoreira1981 · Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:25 am

With the greater demand for air travel, I'd be surprised if WN took that many 737 MAX 7s. I'd expect them to basically be flying around the western portion of the USA while B738s and B38Ms fly elsewhere.

Sooner787 · Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:59 am

Speaking of the MAX 7, any word on when the first test bird will fly?

ODwyerPW · Sun May 20, 2018 1:53 am

Even though WN has a fair number of 73Gs in it's fleet (an understatement to say the least), they are going to want to replace those (as some are used birds) in the coming years. They can't move all of those routes that presently take 137/143 seats / 3 flight attendents and boost them to a plane with 175 seats and the extra flight attendant. There will be a decent trip costs associated with abusing an 8MAX relative to utilizing a 7MAX. Therefore, I still feel a good number of them will be replaced by the 150 pax / 3 flight attendant 7MAX.

RickNRoll · Sun May 20, 2018 3:26 am

Southwest looks at all aircraft, including the Bombardier CSeries—but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”

That sentence is not logically consistent. Why bother looking at other aircraft when you have already decided you won't buy them.

justplanesmart · Sun May 20, 2018 3:56 am

RickNRoll wrote:
Southwest looks at all aircraft, including the Bombardier CSeries—but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”

That sentence is not logically consistent. Why bother looking at other aircraft when you have already decided you won't buy them.

Not necessarily. "Southwest" could refer to the corporation, and "he" to the individual.

MCIRNO · Sun May 20, 2018 4:14 am

Well if Boeing buy Embraer, maybe they'll really push the new E2 190 toward WN

airzona11 · Sun May 20, 2018 4:28 am

MCIRNO wrote:
Well if Boeing buy Embraer, maybe they'll really push the new E2 190 toward WN

There is no reason to believe Southwest is going smaller. They won't go smaller than the 737-7. Smaller doesn't fit their model.

TWA772LR · Sun May 20, 2018 5:18 am

RickNRoll wrote:
Southwest looks at all aircraft, including the Bombardier CSeries—but he has no interest in anything but the 737 “as long as I am CEO.”

That sentence is not logically consistent. Why bother looking at other aircraft when you have already decided you won't buy them.

To try to force Boeing's hand in to a better deal for WN. I heard that Herb had a meeting with Boeing and one of his tricks was to light up a smoke with an Airbus cigarette lighter.

flyingclrs727 · Sun May 20, 2018 6:41 am

airzona11 wrote:
MCIRNO wrote:
Well if Boeing buy Embraer, maybe they'll really push the new E2 190 toward WN

There is no reason to believe Southwest is going smaller. They won't go smaller than the 737-7. Smaller doesn't fit their model.

There are lots of cities that don't have the size to sustain frequencies throughout the day on an airframe the size of a 737-7 Max. There are lots of destinations available from HOU that are not offered on from my home airport of CRP, because the connect times are too long or have too many segments when CRP-HOU is added on. It's so bad I usually just drive to SAT, AUS, or HOU to catch flights. A smaller efficient plane would help by allowing more opportunities for connecting flights throughout the day.

XT6Wagon · Sun May 20, 2018 7:45 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
MCIRNO wrote:
Well if Boeing buy Embraer, maybe they'll really push the new E2 190 toward WN

There is no reason to believe Southwest is going smaller. They won't go smaller than the 737-7. Smaller doesn't fit their model.

There are lots of cities that don't have the size to sustain frequencies throughout the day on an airframe the size of a 737-7 Max. There are lots of destinations available from HOU that are not offered on from my home airport of CRP, because the connect times are too long or have too many segments when CRP-HOU is added on. It's so bad I usually just drive to SAT, AUS, or HOU to catch flights. A smaller efficient plane would help by allowing more opportunities for connecting flights throughout the day.

which is why WN likes its web of 1 stop flights. Many flights are only counting on 50% of the plane going to the 1st stop, and 50% continuing on to the next one. Maximizes frequency and allows a 737 to be used like a plane 1/2 its size.

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