SteelChair
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:57 am

RJMAZ wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
The 787-8 should have been a shoe-in for 767 replacement, but with its somewhat orphan status things are not quiet that easy. Could UA convince Boeing to bring the -8 up to -9 production standards, then I think not only United but a long line of airlines would be highly interested. If they were to further enhance the -8 to better fit a 5000NM / 250-seat market, then it might just be the 'MoM' airlines would be flocking to. It would, figuratively speaking, blow the -800neo out of the water for anyone not having a desperate need to carry 250 souls, and not a soul more, for 14 hours, whilst simultaneously nursing a serious aversion to Boeing 787s. And that, as I'm sure we'll all agree, is about as rare as hens teeth.

The 787 is proving to be a money maker, 'even' in -8 disguise, and so even if UA can't make Boeing improve on an already fine mousetrap, my guess is UA will take them anyway.

Which is why my money's on a A321neo/B787-8 order for near-term 757/767 replacement.

I completely agree with this. You may have seen my posts saying the same thing.

The 788 has very low commonality with the larger versions and is the now the most expensive model to produce. The 788 in a way is the prototype model of the 787 family let's call it the version 1. Many production improvements were included in the 789 making it faster to build and slightly lighter let's call it the version 2.

Commonality isn't the biggest problem it's more the extra labour and weight in the 788 design reducing fuel burn and purchase price making it unattractive. Boeing has gained a lot of knowledge and is ready to implement more production and weight improvements in a version 3 carbon fibre aircraft.

The 788 could very well be relaunched with these improvements and become the NMA / MOM aircraft everyone is talking about. Very disappointing as an enthusiast.

As so much of the relaunched 788 would be rebuilt it would be easy for Boeing to target short range efficiency. By setting a maximum takeoff weight below 200T it reduces the peak load the aircraft would see. This allows the bulkheads, wingbox, wingspars, wing skins and landing gear to be made lighter. This is as simple as removing a few layers of carbon fibre or machining an extra few millimetres of metal from the parts.

The A338 competing against the Boeing MOM in United order is further evidence that this new Boeing NMA will be large and could be a 787-3 done properly.

Remember the 787-3 failed because it was going to only be around 5% lighter than the 787-8 despite having a maximum takeoff weight reduced by a massive 27%. A proper weight reduction optimisation would have seen 10-20T of empty weight shed off the 787-3 but budget only allowed for it to be a simple wing tip reduction and weights/thrust reduced on paper. To do it properly instead of using a derated engine it would have been better to go with a slightly smaller but higher bypass ratio engine.


I agree with this concept: a "properly" re-done 783 that significantly reduces OEW.

The problem is that there is no modern engine that is appropriately sized....they're all to big.
 
Flighty
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:03 am

DLHAM wrote:
I dont see why United should order the A330-800 as a 767 replacement rather than the 787-8, an airplane they already operate. The A330-800 is about the same size as the 787-8, with a fuselage which is narrower, weighs about the same. Just MTOW/Range are much too high for UAs 767 routes in both cases. Could maybe be reduced on paper. The 787-3 would have been Uniteds Airplane, If they intend to replace the 767 with something bigger. If they want a same size replacement all they can do is keeping the freshest of their 767s longer, buy new builds and wait for the 797. I think this is what they will do ...

Does Boeing still offer the 767-400 btw?


Well sure, and you could say the same about the 789 versus the A330-900.

But it isn't the whole story. The 787 is Boeing's no-excuses, high priced longhauler. Its capital cost is too high to use it on shorter routes (AFAIK).

The Airbus A330 line was never, and still is not, designed to win the longhaul game. It is a mid-hauler with capital costs to match. Unfortunately I can't provide hard numbers here. But many aircraft manufacturers do this. Look at Gulfstream. Are the lighter weight models really less costly to build? Almost certainly no. They are just priced lower, and less capable, in order to satisfy a different part of the market. And Gulfstream still makes money on the purchase. This is why Airbus will keep the A330 in production.

The A338 could provide UAL with a right-sized, (relatively) low cost 767 replacement that still has strong legs IF required on a few routes. Boeing may introduce something more optimal, but it will not have the A338's legs. UAL has uses for that. And, think of the 797's development costs. A330 NEO is already developed. Thanks.
Last edited by Flighty on Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
trex8
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:05 am

Planesmart wrote:
trex8 wrote:
A will give you a regional A333 with 199K MTOW so if you dont need a 242K MTOW A338 I'm sure you can get a discount for a @200K one. I guess its just a question of how much that lower capital cost is vs possibly higher operating costs thru its life due to its higher OEW.
Some airlines are operating their A359s at 275 to 240K(or was it 250K- Zeke pip in!) , not sure if they got a break in purchase price for getting a version certified where you can use a long haul and a regional TOW.

But is it worth Airbus investment and time? They already hold significant a330neo margin and performance improvement aces close to the chest, to protect A350 and A320 margins and volumes. At what point do they show their hand?

Is there really any investment A needs to do to paper derate? I suppose theres some paperwork but that must be it. If they try cut structural weight etc etc thats one thing but that probably wont happen. Just like a "light" 788 is not too likely either.
 
tpaewr
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:06 am

My eyes played a trick on me....I read it as A380 for second! Lol
 
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lightsaber
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:56 am

cpd wrote:
If United buys the A330-800, my gosh there will be a lot of people throwing their toys out of the proverbial pram in a tantrum. It will be a bombshell.

StTim wrote:
I am sure Boeing are teasing the airlines with the 797 be it one or two different frames. It is the classic disruption ploy. Look what is just around the corner. Oh sorry it is just around the next corner - and so on...


I'm sure airlines are smart enough to see through that ploy. If we can, then the airlines can. There is a point where an airline can say, that's nice but we need the planes now, not 5 or 10 years down the track.

I predict the a.net server freezes up if this happens. ;)

Seriously, I have trouble taking this seriously. However.. for the right price...

Of course Boeing will counter with the 789 or even 788 at discounted prices.

Winner.. UA.

Lightsaber
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DBKissORD
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:26 am

If you look at recent actions by United like the fact that they are spending money on the fuel inerting systems for the 757s. They also recently ordered 3 used 767s and have started Polaris mods on the existing fleet. These aircraft will be in the fleet at least 5 more years to recover these investments.

I think they will end up being a 797 launch customer and this Airbus conversation is to keep Boeing honest. It seems like the timing looks perfect for the 797 launch.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:47 am

Doesn't UA already fly the 788 from IAD-CDG? That very much a 763 market, at least range and basic capacity wise.
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DocLightning
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:31 am

1989worstyear wrote:
[
Trust me, I'm a huge 757 fan, but as someone else posted above, the efficiency gains of the modern NEO engines offset the revenue from the lost payload.


I should like to go on record as registering my extreme disappointment with ALL of you that the A321NEO and its payload was mentioned and nobody brought up fish. This community is slipping, I tell you. Damned sloppy! :old:

Anyway, I don't think people understand just how good of a plane the A338 is. It's cheaper to acquire than the 788, its fuel consumption per ASM is quite similar, and it can fly for around 14 hours. There is a reason that DL chose the 339 over the 789. The other thing is that it is likely to be much more quickly available.

As for the MOM, it could be 15 years until EIS. I think the airlines are going to be quite leery of Boeing's ability to build an entirely new type given the 787 debacle.
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blrsea
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:34 am

Would the cost of a new MOM plane for Boeing exceed the cost of bringing 787-8 up to 787-9 standard? Wouldn't that be the better option? Of course it may not be as efficient as a MOM optimized for 5000nm. But given the lack of appropriate engines for NMA and the timelines involved, I agree with others that it would make sense to bring 787-8 to 787-9 standard and many might be interested.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:42 am

MrHMSH wrote:
If Leahy was still in charge and pulled that off he'd have had to retire on the spot. I'm not as pessimistic about the A338 as some others... but there's optimism and there's fantasy, this is surely the latter. The 797 is much closer to the size and performance/capability they want.


Well maybe you are right! But then the A330-800 is here now with EIS in Mar 2019?

The Boeing 797 is, well how do you put it? Only Maya! :P

Wonder what an airline looking for a replacement for their 767 fleet should do? Go for a design whose specs & entry are already known or with a design that still resides only in the wetdreams of avgeeks and nowhere else!

Come out of Maya people! And step into the real world! Om Shanti! :old:
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RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:23 am

SteelChair wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
I completely agree with this. You may have seen my posts saying the same thing.

The 788 has very low commonality with the larger versions and is the now the most expensive model to produce. The 788 in a way is the prototype model of the 787 family let's call it the version 1. Many production improvements were included in the 789 making it faster to build and slightly lighter let's call it the version 2.

Commonality isn't the biggest problem it's more the extra labour and weight in the 788 design reducing fuel burn and purchase price making it unattractive. Boeing has gained a lot of knowledge and is ready to implement more production and weight improvements in a version 3 carbon fibre aircraft.

The 788 could very well be relaunched with these improvements and become the NMA / MOM aircraft everyone is talking about. Very disappointing as an enthusiast.

As so much of the relaunched 788 would be rebuilt it would be easy for Boeing to target short range efficiency. By setting a maximum takeoff weight below 200T it reduces the peak load the aircraft would see. This allows the bulkheads, wingbox, wingspars, wing skins and landing gear to be made lighter. This is as simple as removing a few layers of carbon fibre or machining an extra few millimetres of metal from the parts.

The A338 competing against the Boeing MOM in United order is further evidence that this new Boeing NMA will be large and could be a 787-3 done properly.

Remember the 787-3 failed because it was going to only be around 5% lighter than the 787-8 despite having a maximum takeoff weight reduced by a massive 27%. A proper weight reduction optimisation would have seen 10-20T of empty weight shed off the 787-3 but budget only allowed for it to be a simple wing tip reduction and weights/thrust reduced on paper. To do it properly instead of using a derated engine it would have been better to go with a slightly smaller but higher bypass ratio engine.


I agree with this concept: a "properly" re-done 783 that significantly reduces OEW.

The problem is that there is no modern engine that is appropriately sized....they're all to big.

The development time of a new engine version depends on how much new technology is added. The Trent 7000 is pretty much 1% PIP'd Trent 1000 with bleed air added and was introduced quickly. It took 18 months to go from launch to test engine and another 18 months for the first production engine to be delivered.

If the goal is a massive 10% fuel burn improvement over the current Trent 1000 that might take 10 years to develop and enter service. A more modest 5% reduction in SFC would be much quicker to bring to market.

Most of the short haul efficiency gain would come from the reduction in empty weight. So engine SFC targets could be relaxed to allow the engine to suit the desired production date.

Lets assume there would be only one engine option and also assume GE gets the contract. GE would have to make a slightly smaller cored GEnx using a bit of newer tech from the GE9x to make it run a bit hotter.

Engine technology takes a long time to develop. It is highly likely GE would already have plans or even a prototype engine to power a future 787NEO in 10-15 years time. Usually as engines are in development they increasingly run them hotter and at higher thrust levels. So a derated version of this new engine could power the lightweight 787 in the medium term but as that engine matures it could become the next engine for the 787-9 and 787-10.

Rolls Royce also has its advance engine ready. It comes with larger A350 fan but spins it's slower using a smaller and hotter new generation core. With the A350 fan it might have too much thrust despite the increased bypass ratio usually resulting in less thrust.

Pratt engineers have had their hands full with the GTF and F135. I highly doubt they have a secret engine in development.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:17 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The development time of a new engine version depends on how much new technology is added. The Trent 7000 is pretty much 1% PIP'd Trent 1000 with bleed air added and was introduced quickly. It took 18 months to go from launch to test engine and another 18 months for the first production engine to be delivered.

If the goal is a massive 10% fuel burn improvement over the current Trent 1000 that might take 10 years to develop and enter service. A more modest 5% reduction in SFC would be much quicker to bring to market.

Most of the short haul efficiency gain would come from the reduction in empty weight. So engine SFC targets could be relaxed to allow the engine to suit the desired production date.

Lets assume there would be only one engine option and also assume GE gets the contract. GE would have to make a slightly smaller cored GEnx using a bit of newer tech from the GE9x to make it run a bit hotter.

Engine technology takes a long time to develop. It is highly likely GE would already have plans or even a prototype engine to power a future 787NEO in 10-15 years time. Usually as engines are in development they increasingly run them hotter and at higher thrust levels. So a derated version of this new engine could power the lightweight 787 in the medium term but as that engine matures it could become the next engine for the 787-9 and 787-10.

Rolls Royce also has its advance engine ready. It comes with larger A350 fan but spins it's slower using a smaller and hotter new generation core. With the A350 fan it might have too much thrust despite the increased bypass ratio usually resulting in less thrust.

Pratt engineers have had their hands full with the GTF and F135. I highly doubt they have a secret engine in development.


The 787 introduced a high % of new methods - Bleedless engines, electric architecture, FRP barrels, FRP wings, etc but also new manufacturing methods to do the tech. The 787-8 was really Gen 1, with the -9 and -10 being Gen 2. Until the 777 and 787 & 350 entered service more range was a big driver in the design. Now, the NMA is driven by efficiency so a 3,200 / 4,500 range 280/230 pax choice is probably better than say 500 mi more range. As you noted, go for efficiency.

If both the base and stretch use the same engine thrust it would be easier to have two mfg - probably CFM, RR, or GE.

The 779 is Gen 3 for a number of items so the 797 is basically Gen 4 of the 787 concept. Lessons learned and in-service experience greatly improves the design as it is scaled to the new size. A good dress rehearsal before taking on the 737 replacement.
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:56 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
[Why not just get a 788 then? The market till date has made it quite clear regarding the A330neo.


And the keyword in your statement is "date". There's a lot of 767's and A330ceo's still flying which will all need to be replaced at some point and there are a lot whose operators don't currently have replacements on order. For A330ceo operators, the chance to pick up neo's and not having to expensively re-train cabin crew and pilots on an all-new type will be an attractive incentive for some. There's also the potential for tanker/freighter orders as I doubt Airbus will offer the -200 for that purpose forever. So from my perspective, there's plenty of opportunities for both variants of the A330neo to pick up more orders in the coming years. Likewise with the 787.

If the market doesn't take to the A330neo in numbers as large as they took to the ceo, then so be it, but we'll find out over time.

As for those saying "why not just get a -900neo instead of an -800neo", maybe some airlines just don't need that level of capacity along with the associated costs? Same with the 787-8 and it was interesting that BA chose to convert some of their orders for the larger 787's to increase their -8 fleet.
 
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STT757
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:19 pm

What does the second hand A330 market look like for anything 2005/2006 or later? Perhaps UA could grab some second hand A330s to hold them over for another ten to twelve years until a 797 is ready.
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Aptivaboy
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:45 pm

Doesn't this all depend upon desperation?

The A338 is a bit if an orphan with (allegedly) not much of a future. Might Airbus be so desperate to sell it that they'd make UAL a sweetheart deal? Even a sweetheart lease deal?

Then again, how desperate is UAL for lift? How imminent are the 767 retirements? How much longer can the 757 soldier on? If the desperation level is high, UAL might just be tempted to buy or lease the only reasonable solution on the market, even if only short to medium term until a true MOM arrives

While I personally believe that this is just a negotiations ploy on UAL's part, it will be interesting to see if this actually goes anywhere. .
 
AvObserver
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:20 pm

Don't count out the 787-8 either IF Boeing is willing to sell it cheaply enough. It's a long shot maybe but it's on the list of possibilities.
 
WIederling
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:23 pm

DocLightning wrote:
I should like to go on record as registering my extreme disappointment with ALL of you that the A321NEO and its payload was mentioned and nobody brought up fish. This community is slipping, I tell you. Damned sloppy! :old:


Obviously the A321 will only transport containerized fish:
Image
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EddieDude
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:28 pm

My humble opinion is that, as much as it would be awesome to see UA commit to the A338, the 788 seems to be a safe choice. I don't know what Boeing's backlog looks like, but I assume that it would be available much sooner than the 797. As for narrowbodies, the A321NEO would be a great choice, but I am not entirely sure it would solve all of UA's 752, 753 and 763ER replacement needs.
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SonomaFlyer
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:45 pm

The 788 has far too much range vis a vie the 767. They don't need a 16 hour plane to perform an 8-9 hour mission which is primarily what the 767 does (though many segments are shorter).

A driving force as people stated earlier is efficiency. The 338 will be cheaper almost certainly than the 788, Airbus will make it available earlier than the 788 and they will likely provide options like paper derating that Boeing likely won't do for the 788.

This could all be smoke and mirrors given UA is refurbishing the 767 fleet over time to Polaris but those aircraft are getting old and expensive heavy checks are a consideration. Is UA refurbishing the 767s during a heavy check? If so, they might refurbish some and then retire others as either 338s or 788s are delivered.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:49 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
The 788 has far too much range vis a vie the 767. They don't need a 16 hour plane to perform an 8-9 hour mission which is primarily what the 767 does (though many segments are shorter).

A driving force as people stated earlier is efficiency. The 338 will be cheaper almost certainly than the 788, Airbus will make it available earlier than the 788 and they will likely provide options like paper derating that Boeing likely won't do for the 788.

This could all be smoke and mirrors given UA is refurbishing the 767 fleet over time to Polaris but those aircraft are getting old and expensive heavy checks are a consideration. Is UA refurbishing the 767s during a heavy check? If so, they might refurbish some and then retire others as either 338s or 788s are delivered.
The A338 has more range than the 788.
 
holzmann
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:04 pm

I think the subtext is that the 797 design is more or less firmed and internally the US3 (primarily) are jockeying for launch customer pricing and terms. Hence, UA's appeal to the public and the general chatter we are hearing from CEOs considering the 797.
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par13del
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:33 pm

So no one thinks UA is doing Airbus a solid by talking about the A330-800 to allow HA to firm up their potential cancellation as there may be more users?

As for the other side of the coin, UA has a number of 757's and 767's to be replaced, we all know that the A330 claim to fame over the 767 is increased size and range,
so either UA is going to upgrade all their routes or will reduce frequency to accommodate the larger a/c.
If they are really interested in the A330-800, then Boeing may as well offer discounts on the 788, after all, it is still available for sale and it would make no sense to say that they are going to allow UA to replace their 757 / 767 a/c with Airbus a/c for the next 10 to 20 years because they want higher margins on the 789.
 
strfyr51
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:40 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
The 338 seems like too much plane for UA, given that it appears to be optimised for longer routes.

The aircraft size could work as 767 replacement, less so the 757, but unless it looks at a A321neo and 338 combination, it will not really be able to match both requirements.

Overall, UA appears to be a very long shot but stranger things have happened.


Let's put it this way, United was a launching customer for the B747, B757,B767,B777, B787 and We'll be one of the First customers for the B797.
We may get the A330 if Boeing plays hardball just like we bought the A320 and the A319 when Boeing played hardball with the pricing of the B737-400. They opened the door. I doubt they will again.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:02 am

cledaybuck wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
The 788 has far too much range vis a vie the 767. They don't need a 16 hour plane to perform an 8-9 hour mission which is primarily what the 767 does (though many segments are shorter).

A driving force as people stated earlier is efficiency. The 338 will be cheaper almost certainly than the 788, Airbus will make it available earlier than the 788 and they will likely provide options like paper derating that Boeing likely won't do for the 788.

This could all be smoke and mirrors given UA is refurbishing the 767 fleet over time to Polaris but those aircraft are getting old and expensive heavy checks are a consideration. Is UA refurbishing the 767s during a heavy check? If so, they might refurbish some and then retire others as either 338s or 788s are delivered.
The A338 has more range than the 788.


Fair point. I think though the 338 would be cheaper. The published range difference of 145 nm is pretty negligible. Is this a ploy or something serious by UA? I haven't seen a CASM comparison between these two aircraft, does anyone know the difference off the top of their pencils given UA's typical layout?
 
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aerolimani
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:14 am

par13del wrote:
So no one thinks UA is doing Airbus a solid by talking about the A330-800 to allow HA to firm up their potential cancellation as there may be more users?

As for the other side of the coin, UA has a number of 757's and 767's to be replaced, we all know that the A330 claim to fame over the 767 is increased size and range,
so either UA is going to upgrade all their routes or will reduce frequency to accommodate the larger a/c.
If they are really interested in the A330-800, then Boeing may as well offer discounts on the 788, after all, it is still available for sale and it would make no sense to say that they are going to allow UA to replace their 757 / 767 a/c with Airbus a/c for the next 10 to 20 years because they want higher margins on the 789.

Re HA, my understanding is that they are still planning on taking the A338neo but are looking at the 787 as additional aircraft in the future.

The A330-800 order has not been cancelled. What we have said is that it is well-known that we have been negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for the next addition to our fleet. We have not signed an agreement with either manufacturer [at this stage].

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... ncellation
 
flyabr
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:15 am

So, is the passenger 763ER revival dead in the water??
 
brian415
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:25 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
United does not have 53 Boeing 767-300ER are active 35, I believe that in the replacement of these aircraft are in the hands of Boeing


United has 51 767s among the two variants they operate (767-300er and 767-400er) and 3 used orders for the 767-300er from HA.
 
brian415
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:30 am

par13del wrote:
If they are really interested in the A330-800, then Boeing may as well offer discounts on the 788, after all, it is still available for sale and it would make no sense to say that they are going to allow UA to replace their 757 / 767 a/c with Airbus a/c for the next 10 to 20 years because they want higher margins on the 789.


I thought Boeing hates its 787-8 and would love to see production of that variant shut down.
 
marcelh
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:49 am

brian415 wrote:
par13del wrote:
If they are really interested in the A330-800, then Boeing may as well offer discounts on the 788, after all, it is still available for sale and it would make no sense to say that they are going to allow UA to replace their 757 / 767 a/c with Airbus a/c for the next 10 to 20 years because they want higher margins on the 789.


I thought Boeing hates its 787-8 and would love to see production of that variant shut down.

They certainly don't hate it so much that they won't sell it.
 
brian415
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:02 am

SteelChair wrote:
I agree with this concept: a "properly" re-done 783 that significantly reduces OEW.

The problem is that there is no modern engine that is appropriately sized....they're all to big.

What ever happened to the "partially in development" derated engines with 53K thrust for the 787-3 as rendered on this photo: https://archive.is/yGYWr

Also Wikipedia: https://web.archive.org/web/20090825163259/http://en.wikipedia.org:80/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner#787-3

Surely, some work had to have been done by GE and/or RR for the 53K thrust engine, as of, let's say 2009/2010, before Boeing instructed them to stop work on it?!
 
brian415
Posts: 194
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:09 am

MTOW was going to be 375,000 pounds, according to Boeing:

https://archive.is/5Mlyr
https://web.archive.org/web/20100208233 ... 3prod.html
 
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iahcsr
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:38 am

leleko747 wrote:
Wasn't United in talks with Boeing for new build 767s?

The problem here, which I don’t know if has been determined yet, is can B now build passenger 767s for a price UA is willing to pay? The matter might still be in play, or dead and buried. Nothing has be said about it in some time now.
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:07 am

brian415 wrote:
What ever happened to the "partially in development" derated engines with 53K thrust for the 787-3 as rendered on this photo: https://archive.is/yGYWr

Also Wikipedia: https://web.archive.org/web/20090825163259/http://en.wikipedia.org:80/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner#787-3

Surely, some work had to have been done by GE and/or RR for the 53K thrust engine, as of, let's say 2009/2010, before Boeing instructed them to stop work on it?!

Boeing would be making very little, if any profit on the 787-8 due to the higher production costs. There would be very little incentive to sell that model.

Boeing would definitely prefer to end production of the current 787-8 if it meant airlines would swap to higher profit 787-9's or a new cheaper to produce lightweight 787-3.

The A300, A310, A330 and A340 all shared the same fuselage cross section. So the 787-3 if it is fully reworked with a smaller optimised wing, smaller gear and engines then Boeing could justify calling it a 797. I'm curious to see how light a 787-3 could be if it was fully optimised and how much extra range it would have compared to the original cheap 787-3 proposal.

Engine manufacturers would definitely having something at least on paper.
 
727200
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:23 am

Let's put it this way, United was a launching customer for the B747, B757,B767,B777, B787 and We'll be one of the First customers for the B797.
We may get the A330 if Boeing plays hardball just like we bought the A320 and the A319 when Boeing played hardball with the pricing of the B737-400. They opened the door. I doubt they will again.[/quote]

That is NOT the reason UA ended up with the 320/319. There were some 'political decisions' for the order. Boeing didn't stand a chance to get the order and Airbus used 'sources' to make sure they did.
 
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par13del
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:26 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Boeing would be making very little, if any profit on the 787-8 due to the higher production costs. There would be very little incentive to sell that model.

Boeing would definitely prefer to end production of the current 787-8 if it meant airlines would swap to higher profit 787-9's or a new cheaper to produce lightweight 787-3.

The A330 is larger than the 767, the 787-8 is larger than the A330, the 787-9 is larger than the 787-8, so if UA is looking to replace the 767 / 757 they either upgrade - A330 and above or downgrade A321 / 737-XX etc.
Boeing is going to throw the 787-9 at them because they can get higher margins, trying to match the clients capacity need with what is best for its production and profit....I'm thinking that is a sure way to loose the client.
If time is an issue, the new slots coming based on the increased production will allow the 787-8 to be a credible option, if UA goes more Airbus a/c that segment of their fleet / needs will be lost to Boeing for at least 10 years or more, that's a lot to give up for not wanting to continue production of the 787-8 while not committing to plugging the hole you identified in your lineup between the 787-900ER / MAX and the 787-8.

Boeing may as well follow the 777X example and customize as best as possible the 797 for UA and get it out the door, then follow the 787, the best selling model now is not the one that made the initial launch.
 
brian415
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:10 am

par13del wrote:
The A330 is larger than the 767, the 787-8 is larger than the A330, the 787-9 is larger than the 787-8, so if UA is looking to replace the 767 / 757 they either upgrade - A330 and above or downgrade A321 / 737-XX etc.

UA already ordered TOO MANY 737-10 frames (which was merely an upgauge of existing 737-900er); so for any downgauge, further 737-xx should be ruled out. That leaves the A321LR as the only downgauge option that could serve as a 757-200 replacement.

With the 757-300, they could go either way ... downgauge to A321neo/A321LR or upgauge to A330 / B787-8 / 797 / new build 767-300er.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:53 am

par13del wrote:
The A330 is larger than the 767, the 787-8 is larger than the A330, the 787-9 is larger than the 787-8, so if UA is looking to replace the 767 / 757 they either upgrade - A330 and above or downgrade A321 / 737-XX etc.

The 787-8 is actually the smallest and lightest widebody even when compared to the A330-800.

The 787-8 is lower in ever metric:
Length: 56.7m vs 58.8m
Wing span: 60.1m vs 64m
Wing area: 377m2 vs 380m2
Empty weight: 119T vs 124T
Max takeoff weight: 227T vs 242T
Fuel capacity: 126,000L vs 139,000L
Range: 7355nm vs 7500nm

The 787-8 is closer to the 767-300ER than the A330-800.

If the 787-8 had it's maximum takeoff weight reduced by 20% to say 180T this would be 10T heavier than the original 787-3. Such a low maximum takeoff would make a 10% reduction in empty weight extremely easy to achieve coming close to 100T

This would make the 787 a near perfect replacement for the 767-300ER. The numbers look good and it shrinks the widebody to narrowbody gap for relatively low investment. This would be a fraction of the cost of a clean sheet design.

If a clean sheet mini 787 costs 10 times as much to develop but sells only 1000 aircraft then it would be a poor investment compared to a lightweight 787 that might sell 500 aircraft.
 
rj1385
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:26 am

I think this is a look to make Boeing make a deal on the 787's for cheap or to make a nice hold over deal on new 767's to hold over until the new 797 is available.

Boeing can easily deal some short lease 767 hold overs assuming they easily will be able to turn the aircraft in to freighters in short to near future.
 
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Goodyear
Posts: 183
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:01 am

brian415 wrote:
What ever happened to the "partially in development" derated engines with 53K thrust for the 787-3 as rendered on this photo: https://archive.is/yGYWr

While not really relevant to the discussion at hand, the image linked to above is the 787-8; the 787-3 had traditional winglets.
Image
 
brian415
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:02 am

rj1385 wrote:
I think this is a look to make Boeing make a deal on the 787's for cheap or to make a nice hold over deal on new 767's to hold over until the new 797 is available. [..]

It doesn't seem like the 787-8 is anything close to a 767-300er replacement. The -8 is perhaps a 767-400er replacement (capacity wise), but having much better performance.

Boeing would need to build a 787-6.5 (six dot five) to be a 767-300er replacement.
 
brian415
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:20 am

Goodyear wrote:
brian415 wrote:
What ever happened to the "partially in development" derated engines with 53K thrust for the 787-3 as rendered on this photo: https://archive.is/yGYWr

While not really relevant to the discussion at hand, the image linked to above is the 787-8; the 787-3 had traditional winglets.
Image

Thanks for pointing that out. I shouldn't rely on Google Images too much!
 
DartHerald
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:13 pm

The A330 started out as a regional aircraft of limited range. As its range has been increased over the years so (presumably) has its structural weight. Is there not an opportunity, therefore, for Airbus to reverse those increases and revert to the lighter airframe, albeit adjusted to accommodate the neo (heavier) engines and create something more akin to the desired nma? That would increase the distance between it and the 787-8.
 
Bhoy
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:14 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
Let's put it this way, United was a launching customer for the B747, B757,B767,B777, B787 and We'll be one of the First customers for the B797.

?? United took delivery of their first 757 in 1989, a full seven years after launch customers Eastern and British Airways.
 
mjoelnir
Topic Author
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:54 pm

DartHerald wrote:
The A330 started out as a regional aircraft of limited range. As its range has been increased over the years so (presumably) has its structural weight. Is there not an opportunity, therefore, for Airbus to reverse those increases and revert to the lighter airframe, albeit adjusted to accommodate the neo (heavier) engines and create something more akin to the desired nma? That would increase the distance between it and the 787-8.


You presume wrong, if anything the structural weight of the A330 has decreased. People forget that the A330-200/300 and A340-200/300 are the same frames. The structure, fuselage, wings and so on, was build for a MTOW of up to 275 t. The lighter A330 was the A300. The growth potential of the A330 has been also influenced by the available engines.

If you compare the weight of a A330-200 with a 787-8, it does not compare to badly. It is the slightly larger frame.
A330-200: OEW 120,5 t, MZFW 170 t, MTOW 242 t
787-8: OEW 120 t, MZFW 161 t, MTOW 228 t

The A330-800 would be: OEW 124 t, MZFW 176 t, MTOW 242 t with the OEW of 124t being my guess, I still think it could come lower due to weight reduction work, especially removing legacy A340 structure..

The A330-800 will have a higher OEW than the 787, but would carry a higher max payload and carry its typical payload further than the 787-8.
The 787-8 and the A330-800 will fit the same gate size, one size up from the 767.
For medium haul operation both frames will be offered at reduced MTOW.

I do not really understand why the 797 or NMA is mentioned here. It is not offer as it is. It will perhaps be launched some day and perhaps EIS ten years from now, if launched soon and the right engines become available. It is not a solution today, if you need a new frame for mid haul bigger and more range than a A321neo or A321LR today, the choice is between a 787_8 or a A330-800.
 
WIederling
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:49 pm

DartHerald wrote:
The A330 started out as a regional aircraft of limited range. As its range has been increased over the years so (presumably) has its structural weight..


Looks like the OEW has been more or less constant more reflecting changes in IFE, cabin layout.
i.e. if Airbus did beefing up they also removed some fat in the process.
Not all but a significant number of MTOW increases allowed backports.
My guess would be that lots of FBW fiddling was instrumental aided
by "some more layers of paint there <points finger>" .
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Polot
Posts: 8214
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:04 pm

mjoelnir wrote:

I do not really understand why the 797 or NMA is mentioned here. It is not offer as it is. It will perhaps be launched some day and perhaps EIS ten years from now, if launched soon and the right engines become available. It is not a solution today, if you need a new frame for mid haul bigger and more range than a A321neo or A321LR today, the choice is between a 787_8 or a A330-800.

Its mentioned here because UA mentions it, even if you want to pretend that they don't/are not actually considering it. You realize that UA may decide to just work with what they have, maybe pick up a few more used 767s, and wait right? It is not like UA could get the A338 before ~2020 anyways.
 
WIederling
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:34 pm

Polot wrote:
Its mentioned here because UA mentions it, even if you want to pretend that they don't/are not actually considering it. You realize that UA may decide to just work with what they have, maybe pick up a few more used 767s, and wait right? It is not like UA could get the A338 before ~2020 anyways.


Its a much richer runoff with, my guess, some interdepencies:
Image
src: https://www.flightglobal.com/assets/get ... emid=73055
via https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/
referenced in the initial post.
Murphy is an optimist
 
trex8
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:45 pm

Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I do not really understand why the 797 or NMA is mentioned here. It is not offer as it is. It will perhaps be launched some day and perhaps EIS ten years from now, if launched soon and the right engines become available. It is not a solution today, if you need a new frame for mid haul bigger and more range than a A321neo or A321LR today, the choice is between a 787_8 or a A330-800.

Its mentioned here because UA mentions it, even if you want to pretend that they don't/are not actually considering it. You realize that UA may decide to just work with what they have, maybe pick up a few more used 767s, and wait right? It is not like UA could get the A338 before ~2020 anyways.

A338 is supposed to EIS 2019, originally they said a year after A339 which I think they are still hoping is still first half 2018 or at least Q3 per TAP, no idea how many A330ceo/neo slots are free for 2019.
But then there may be 6 slots free soon if certain rumors are true!
 
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Polot
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:02 pm

trex8 wrote:
Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I do not really understand why the 797 or NMA is mentioned here. It is not offer as it is. It will perhaps be launched some day and perhaps EIS ten years from now, if launched soon and the right engines become available. It is not a solution today, if you need a new frame for mid haul bigger and more range than a A321neo or A321LR today, the choice is between a 787_8 or a A330-800.

Its mentioned here because UA mentions it, even if you want to pretend that they don't/are not actually considering it. You realize that UA may decide to just work with what they have, maybe pick up a few more used 767s, and wait right? It is not like UA could get the A338 before ~2020 anyways.

A338 is supposed to EIS 2019, originally they said a year after A339 which I think they are still hoping is still first half 2018 or at least Q3 per TAP, no idea how many A330ceo/neo slots are free for 2019.
But then there may be 6 slots free soon if certain rumors are true!

According to DL's filings their first A330neos appear to slipping to late '19/early '20, so I don't think there are many Neo slots left in 2019.
 
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ro1960
Posts: 826
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:55 pm

trex8 wrote:
Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I do not really understand why the 797 or NMA is mentioned here. It is not offer as it is. It will perhaps be launched some day and perhaps EIS ten years from now, if launched soon and the right engines become available. It is not a solution today, if you need a new frame for mid haul bigger and more range than a A321neo or A321LR today, the choice is between a 787_8 or a A330-800.

Its mentioned here because UA mentions it, even if you want to pretend that they don't/are not actually considering it. You realize that UA may decide to just work with what they have, maybe pick up a few more used 767s, and wait right? It is not like UA could get the A338 before ~2020 anyways.

A338 is supposed to EIS 2019, originally they said a year after A339 which I think they are still hoping is still first half 2018 or at least Q3 per TAP, no idea how many A330ceo/neo slots are free for 2019.
But then there may be 6 slots free soon if certain rumors are true!


The first two A330neo for TP just rolled out of the paint shop. Any idea about the EIS?

https://worldairlinenews.com/2018/03/03/a-double-roll-out-for-the-first-airbus-a330neo-operator-tap-air-portugal/

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