Welcome to the Australian Aviation Thread - March 2018 edition. Link to previous thread viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1385245&p=20209963#p20209963

I will add a summary of last thread in the next few days. We have finally reached the month for MEL-PER-LHR. Other changes to QF's network this month include DXB transit for SIN. We will also see A330s deployed to AKL from both MEL & BNE. Both PER-MEL and BNE-MEL will both see one less wide body frequency to accommodate the AKL flights, BNE-PER will only see 1 A330 per day.

Link to QF Fleet Thread 2018

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382753

Latest on QF 787-9's

VH-ZNA (Great Southern Land) delivered
VH-ZNB (Waltzing Matilda) delivered
VH-ZNC (Quokka) Delivered
VH-ZND (Yam Dreaming) ready for delivery, will depart PAE in less than 24 hours
Planned Delivery dates - #5 - 12 July 18, #6 - 24 August 18, #7 - 13 November, #8 - 26 November
MEL-LAX (QF95/96) from 15 Dec - 6 weekly, 5 weekly 3 May -27 June 18, down to 2 weekly 1 September
MEL-LAX (QF93/94) will see 3 weekly A388 and 2 weekly 789 12 Feb -24 March 18
Domestic 789 services back running until start of PER-LHR
MEL-PER-LHR from 24 March 18
MEL-SFO to start 1 September 2018. 4 weekly
BNE will be base for frames 5-8
First BNE based 789 will be named Great Barrier Reef
BNE-LAX-JFK to 789 service from 1 September
BNE-LAX to go to 11 weekly 789 service from 1 December, from 1 September BNE-LAX will be served by a daily 789 and 3 weekly 744

VA says that ordering new widebodies to replaces the 77W's and A332's are not going to happen anytime soon. When replacements are ordered it could be either A350's, 787's and now the 777X may be in the mix too even though that would be too big for them

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -way-away/

qf789 wrote:

VA says that ordering new widebodies to replaces the 77W's and A332's are not going to happen anytime soon. When replacements are ordered it could be either A350's, 787's and now the 777X may be in the mix too even though that would be too big for them

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -way-away/

I see the 77X as too big, doubt even the 77W ever made sense for them. Now if they were a bit clever, I am sure there are some great 338 deals to be had right now, the right size AC and as far as I can tell, could/would serve all their missions, both domestic & Intl ´rightsized´. From a CAPEX angle surely much more attractive than a 78 or 350.

SA has sent another A332 to PER today, could we see this on a more permanent basis

http://aegwaspotters.blogspot.com.au/20 ... s-saa.html

Qantas delays WiFi fitout on domestic A330s to 2019-2020, was supposed to start "early 2017" and then "early 2018"
https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-delays- ... ource=hero

qf789 wrote:

VA says that ordering new widebodies to replaces the 77W's and A332's are not going to happen anytime soon. When replacements are ordered it could be either A350's, 787's and now the 777X may be in the mix too even though that would be too big for them

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -way-away/

I think the A350 is perfect for VA, good size and good range. A fleet of 10-12 or so would allow for some international expansion (where? I don't know) and daily services on all the current routes.

JBusworth wrote:

I think the A350 is perfect for VA, good size and good range. A fleet of 10-12 or so would allow for some international expansion (where? I don't know) and daily services on all the current routes.

I would agree, moving to a single type makes perfect sense for their small fleet and this indicates something beyond mid-size but not 777, given Qantas has backed the 787 for Virgin to choose the A350 would be a good point of differentiation because a lot of passengers can tell the difference inside these, the A350 is roomier, and the A350 would not be too massively over-spec'd for east-west if it came to having a few trundle back and forth coast to coast, but it would be perfect size for Asia and US.

I don't understand what's happening at Virgin - not that that's new.

They have said they're not taking the company private, but effectively, it is - only about 7% of the airline is available to the public, that is can be bought and/or sold on the open market. The rest is held by the airlines (including Branson/Virgin) that own the airline.

As I understand it, if a new company were looking to be listed 7% wouldn't cut it - at least 20% would have to be available to the public, but Virgin's ASX status is considered to be of long standing and was at the 20% (or more) when they first listed. Well - maybe.

Those few members of the public who do own shares might have been hoping for a buy-out by the big boys, a welcome bit of a premium for their shares, but, alas, it seems not to be. I cannot think what the value is in keeping the airline "public" with such a small (public) float available.

Then again, it's not the first time that Virgin/Borghetti has me scratching my head.

mariner

JBusworth wrote:

qf789 wrote:

VA says that ordering new widebodies to replaces the 77W's and A332's are not going to happen anytime soon. When replacements are ordered it could be either A350's, 787's and now the 777X may be in the mix too even though that would be too big for them

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -way-away/

I think the A350 is perfect for VA, good size and good range. A fleet of 10-12 or so would allow for some international expansion (where? I don't know) and daily services on all the current routes.

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

Qantas16 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

qf789 wrote:

VA says that ordering new widebodies to replaces the 77W's and A332's are not going to happen anytime soon. When replacements are ordered it could be either A350's, 787's and now the 777X may be in the mix too even though that would be too big for them

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -way-away/

I think the A350 is perfect for VA, good size and good range. A fleet of 10-12 or so would allow for some international expansion (where? I don't know) and daily services on all the current routes.

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

By expansion I meant new routes into China and the US, replacing the Trans-con flying I can't see A350s doing. Does VA really wants to keep wide bodies on SYD/MEL/BNE - PER?

I doubt even the 77W ever made sense for them.

At the time the 77W was ordered, there wasn't anything much smaller than could do SYD-LAX. They could have taken the 77L but its trip costs are pretty simiar to the 77W. Likewise the A346 was cheaper upfront but had higher trip costs. Were they making the decision today, you'd think the best option would be the A359 with the 789 a reasonable alternative.

They have said they're not taking the company private, but effectively, it is - only about 7% of the airline is available to the public, that is can be bought and/or sold on the open market. The rest is held by the airlines (including Branson/Virgin) that own the airline.

They have said they will not go private at this stage. The buyback of non-marketable parcels is a signal that they are leaving their options only and the removal of these high volume - low value shareholders who basically inherited their shares from Toll will make any future privatisation/takeover much less complex.

JBusworth wrote:

Qantas16 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

I think the A350 is perfect for VA, good size and good range. A fleet of 10-12 or so would allow for some international expansion (where? I don't know) and daily services on all the current routes.

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

By expansion I meant new routes into China and the US, replacing the Trans-con flying I can't see A350s doing. Does VA really wants to keep wide bodies on SYD/MEL/BNE - PER?

I would say that if VA would go with a single-type widebody fleet (and I agree the A350 seems to make most sense and is a wonderful aircraft from a pax perspective), then the focus of this fleet would be LAX and Asia flying, with a small number of "premium" services (2 a day maybe) on MEL/SYD-PER. That would possibly assist with fleet utilisation also. But the 738 would become the norm on the Coast-to-Coast, if one likes it or not. The days of them flying the 332 on all/most services are over, and they need to be realistic with this and also manage expectations. A select number of services that also work time-wise for the corporate accounts, and then stick with those and don't substitute them with 738s all the time.

mariner wrote:

I don't understand what's happening at Virgin - not that that's new.

They have said they're not taking the company private, but effectively, it is - only about 7% of the airline is available to the public, that is can be bought and/or sold on the open market. The rest is held by the airlines (including Branson/Virgin) that own the airline.

As I understand it, if a new company were looking to be listed 7% wouldn't cut it - at least 20% would have to be available to the public, but Virgin's ASX status is considered to be of long standing and was at the 20% (or more) when they first listed. Well - maybe.

Those few members of the public who do own shares might have been hoping for a buy-out by the big boys, a welcome bit of a premium for their shares, but, alas, it seems not to be. I cannot think what the value is in keeping the airline "public" with such a small (public) float available.

Then again, it's not the first time that Virgin/Borghetti has me scratching my head.

mariner

I think it's simple Mariner and explains why they aren't going private as well.

It's that 7% free float that owns the 100% of Virgin Australia International (VAI) which is the holding company that owns the international traffic rights. If VAH went private they would need a 51% Australian investor to retain the international traffic rights, where as right now the traffic rights are leased to VA from VAI which is allegedly 100% Australian owned, but in reality only needs to be 51% Australian owned. I would suspect that the 7% shareholding is made up of some overseas investors and it surprises me every single day that the IASC don't look into this ownership arrangement.

QF questioned this back when VA wanted to move the Bali flights to TT here: http://iasc.gov.au/applications/files/2 ... ission.pdf

Nothing came of it though...

Boof wrote:

I think it's simple Mariner and explains why they aren't going private as well.

It's that 7% free float that owns the 100% of Virgin Australia International (VAI) which is the holding company that owns the international traffic rights. If VAH went private they would need a 51% Australian investor to retain the international traffic rights, where as right now the traffic rights are leased to VA from VAI which is allegedly 100% Australian owned, but in reality only needs to be 51% Australian owned.

Ahhh, yes, of course - and now I feel stupid for not thinking of it. LOL.

Thanks.

mariner

Qantas16 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

I think the A350 would be a bit much for east-west but unless Virgin is going to abandon widebodies completely on east-west they will want something to go head to head with the Qantas A330s. The only alternative is to do what is create a dedicated B737 subfleet for east-west, which is of course the rumour, with something like JetBlue Mint, and only fly B737s east-west, no widebodies at all.

CraigAnderson wrote:

Qantas16 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

I think the A350 would be a bit much for east-west but unless Virgin is going to abandon widebodies completely on east-west they will want something to go head to head with the Qantas A330s. The only alternative is to do what is create a dedicated B737 subfleet for east-west, which is of course the rumour, with something like JetBlue Mint, and only fly B737s east-west, no widebodies at all.

Even though the idea of a B737 sub fleet sounds ideal, it would be an operational nightmare the event a aircraft goes tech or AOG. Better to keep the product consistent across all types opposed to operating a sub fleet. QF going back to the drawing board & rolling out suites on all A330s is a perfect example.

EK413

A350OZ wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

Qantas16 wrote:

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

By expansion I meant new routes into China and the US, replacing the Trans-con flying I can't see A350s doing. Does VA really wants to keep wide bodies on SYD/MEL/BNE - PER?

I would say that if VA would go with a single-type widebody fleet (and I agree the A350 seems to make most sense and is a wonderful aircraft from a pax perspective), then the focus of this fleet would be LAX and Asia flying, with a small number of "premium" services (2 a day maybe) on MEL/SYD-PER. That would possibly assist with fleet utilisation also. But the 738 would become the norm on the Coast-to-Coast, if one likes it or not. The days of them flying the 332 on all/most services are over, and they need to be realistic with this and also manage expectations. A select number of services that also work time-wise for the corporate accounts, and then stick with those and don't substitute them with 738s all the time.

I would agree with that. The A359 or B789 would be the "right-sized" aircraft for VA's wide-body operations in the medium to long term future (assuming they're still around).

6 frames would be required for daily SYD/MEL/BNE-LAX operations as part of the DL/VA JV,
3 frames for SYD/MEL-HKG and SYD or MEL-China port as part of the HNA/VA JV
and the remaining 2 frames on selected SYD/MEL - PER Transcons.

Whatever the replacement may be will largely replace the existing (and short-term future e.g the AU-China route) wide-body operations, as part of their existing JVs with their overseas partners.

Also, the 24 'W' seats could be sold as 'Economy X' on the SYD/MEL-PER Transcons where needed.

ZND has been moved to the Everett Delivery Center ready for its delivery flight to ASP later today



https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/968996027704340480

REX is predicting a 20% improvement in financials for FY18

https://blueswandaily.com/rex-projects- ... in-fy2018/

CraigAnderson wrote:

Qantas16 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

I think the A350 would be a bit much for east-west but unless Virgin is going to abandon widebodies completely on east-west they will want something to go head to head with the Qantas A330s. The only alternative is to do what is create a dedicated B737 subfleet for east-west, which is of course the rumour, with something like JetBlue Mint, and only fly B737s east-west, no widebodies at all.

A transcon 738 subfleet is a bad idea: fleet utilisation complexities, the transcon plane sub'ed out for a normal 738 (same issue as today when the 332 becomes a 738 all of a sudden), and people who expect a widebody will complain nonetheless or book QF. Maybe for a large airline like AA where the economies of scale are different, but not for VA which would need how many, maybe 10-12 of those designated transcon birds?

Looking at the A359, in a VA layout it could have 30J (between doors 1 and 2), 24W, and then approx 250Y, for a total of 304 seats. (just going by the layouts of other operators). That compares with their current widebodies:

332: 20J, 255Y = 275 total
77W: 37J, 24W, 278Y = 339 total

So yes maybe a bit premium-heavy for the PER flying, but I still believe a good compromise and viable alternative over the 2 small 77W and 332 fleets.

But all pie in the sky anyway...

Btw: is LH the only airline that has 7-abreast in W on the A359? I was surprised when I saw this, seems everyone else is going for 2-4-2.

Qantas16 wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

qf789 wrote:

VA says that ordering new widebodies to replaces the 77W's and A332's are not going to happen anytime soon. When replacements are ordered it could be either A350's, 787's and now the 777X may be in the mix too even though that would be too big for them

http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -way-away/

I think the A350 is perfect for VA, good size and good range. A fleet of 10-12 or so would allow for some international expansion (where? I don't know) and daily services on all the current routes.

Would the A350 not be a little bit too much aircraft for PER-SYD/MEL/BNE? Also a fleet of 10-12 would replace a fleet of 5 77Ws and 6 A330s so no room for expansion there - not that I think VA should be looking at any medium/long haul expansion anyway.

IMO the 789 makes sense at VA and maybe some 7810s if they can be considered common.

I messaged Virgin to ask them what Transcon services are affected for the new Sydney service to Hong Kong, they said none "a majority of Perth services will be A330s".

Not sure how thats going to work for them.

Flight plan for delivery of ZND

https://twitter.com/b787flighttest/stat ... 8168138753

qf789 wrote:

Flight plan for delivery of ZND

https://twitter.com/b787flighttest/stat ... 8168138753

Ok dumb question for the day and not sure its been covered. Why is it going to ASP?

sq256 wrote:

A350OZ wrote:

JBusworth wrote:

By expansion I meant new routes into China and the US, replacing the Trans-con flying I can't see A350s doing. Does VA really wants to keep wide bodies on SYD/MEL/BNE - PER?

I would say that if VA would go with a single-type widebody fleet (and I agree the A350 seems to make most sense and is a wonderful aircraft from a pax perspective), then the focus of this fleet would be LAX and Asia flying, with a small number of "premium" services (2 a day maybe) on MEL/SYD-PER. That would possibly assist with fleet utilisation also. But the 738 would become the norm on the Coast-to-Coast, if one likes it or not. The days of them flying the 332 on all/most services are over, and they need to be realistic with this and also manage expectations. A select number of services that also work time-wise for the corporate accounts, and then stick with those and don't substitute them with 738s all the time.

I would agree with that. The A359 or B789 would be the "right-sized" aircraft for VA's wide-body operations in the medium to long term future (assuming they're still around).

6 frames would be required for daily SYD/MEL/BNE-LAX operations as part of the DL/VA JV,
3 frames for SYD/MEL-HKG and SYD or MEL-China port as part of the HNA/VA JV
and the remaining 2 frames on selected SYD/MEL - PER Transcons.

Whatever the replacement may be will largely replace the existing (and short-term future e.g the AU-China route) wide-body operations, as part of their existing JVs with their overseas partners.

Also, the 24 'W' seats could be sold as 'Economy X' on the SYD/MEL-PER Transcons where needed.

Another option would be to sell the 24W as economy and allocate these seats to premium passengers (complimentary upgrade). The QF 789 East West flying would be a similar offering with the W seating offered to premuim passengers.

EK413

waoz1 wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Flight plan for delivery of ZND

https://twitter.com/b787flighttest/stat ... 8168138753

Ok dumb question for the day and not sure its been covered. Why is it going to ASP?

The new Dreamliner carrying the special livery (registration VH-ZND) is the fourth to enter the fleet, and will be welcomed into Australia with a special arrival event in Alice Springs in early March 2018 before entering service on routes like Melbourne-Los Angeles and Perth-London.

EK413

waoz1 wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Flight plan for delivery of ZND

https://twitter.com/b787flighttest/stat ... 8168138753

Ok dumb question for the day and not sure its been covered. Why is it going to ASP?

It’s going to ASP first for a welcoming ceremony by the artist’s family

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ft-livery/

Qantas unveils new menu for long haul flights to help reduce jet lag

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... l-flights/

Rex to commence Perth-Monkey Mia-Carnarvon

Increase in flights
20% Increase Perth to Carnarvon
and 50% Increase Perth to Monkey Mia

Prices have also dropped... had a quick look $150 odd one way isn't bad for a Promo Fare.

EK413 wrote:

Another option would be to sell the 24W as economy and allocate these seats to premium passengers (complimentary upgrade). The QF 789 East West flying would be a similar offering with the W seating offered to premuim passengers.

EK413

Yes, I am flying the 789 PER-MEL on Sunday and was offered a premium economy seat at seat selection from the time of booking (and I'm only Gold, not Platinum)

ZND has been delivered and on her way home

https://twitter.com/psboeingtstflts/sta ... 9176407040

qf789 wrote:

waoz1 wrote:

It’s going to ASP first for a welcoming ceremony by the artist’s family
https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ft-livery/

Great to see, now that more photos of ZND have been shared showing it from other angles I really think this is the best Aboriginal livery QF has done to date. BUT, I am still NOT a fan of the name, QF held a contest and said here are the eight iconic Australian names we will use, got all the publicity from those eight names, and now have decided to abandon one in favour of the name of the artist herself? It would have much much more sense to everybody for ZND to be the 789 named 'Dreamtime'.

I cant remember if this was shown when ZND rolled out but here is a video of the paint job being applied

https://twitter.com/qantas/status/969099770332508161

qf789 wrote:

REX is predicting a 20% improvement in financials for FY18

https://blueswandaily.com/rex-projects- ... in-fy2018/

Good to hear they're profitable.
Has the question of ZL's fleet replacement come up, the average age of their fleet is over the 20+ years mark, or can they squeeze a bit more life out of them before a decision needs to be made.

ben175 wrote:

EK413 wrote:

Another option would be to sell the 24W as economy and allocate these seats to premium passengers (complimentary upgrade). The QF 789 East West flying would be a similar offering with the W seating offered to premuim passengers.

EK413

Yes, I am flying the 789 PER-MEL on Sunday and was offered a premium economy seat at seat selection from the time of booking (and I'm only Gold, not Platinum)

Enjoy, I believe MEL-PER sector loads have been relatively light but the PER-MEL full due to the departure time.

EK413

A350OZ wrote:

Btw: is LH the only airline that has 7-abreast in W on the A359? I was surprised when I saw this, seems everyone else is going for 2-4-2.

China Airlines has 7 abreast in W as well.

Welcome Home Emily Kame Kngwarreye

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/northern/2018/03/02/first-pics-qantas-vh-znd-emily-kame-kngwarreye-lands-alice-springs/

ZND in Alice Springs, next stop Sydney



https://twitter.com/Qantas/status/969328641715855360

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... us-livery/

Looks like VA's "Perth Product" will likely not be launched until 737MAX8's arrive

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero

Obzerva wrote:

qf789 wrote:

REX is predicting a 20% improvement in financials for FY18

https://blueswandaily.com/rex-projects- ... in-fy2018/

Good to hear they're profitable.
Has the question of ZL's fleet replacement come up, the average age of their fleet is over the 20+ years mark, or can they squeeze a bit more life out of them before a decision needs to be made.

Not sure how much more life you can squeeze out of those SAAB's, given the cold water taps in their toilets have been decommissioned and replaced with hand sanitiser.

Some more pics of ZND in ASP









http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -dreaming/

BITRE out for December

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1712.pdf

qf789 wrote:

BITRE out for December

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1712.pdf

Thanks for this - one that strikes me is OZ, who at ~65% are below KE (in the mid-high 80s).

I wonder what's behind OZ's poor performance at SYD this summer? Sale fares from KE?

Cheers,

C.

planemanofnz wrote:

qf789 wrote:

BITRE out for December

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1712.pdf

Thanks for this - one that strikes me is OZ, who at ~65% are below KE (in the mid-high 80s).

I wonder what's behind OZ's poor performance at SYD this summer? Sale fares from KE?

Cheers,

C.

Were they using an A380 last year?

Certainly a very competitive route between KE and OZ, especially during peak periods.

IndianicWorld wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

qf789 wrote:

BITRE out for December

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1712.pdf

Thanks for this - one that strikes me is OZ, who at ~65% are below KE (in the mid-high 80s).

I wonder what's behind OZ's poor performance at SYD this summer? Sale fares from KE?

Cheers,

C.

Were they using an A380 last year?

Certainly a very competitive route between KE and OZ, especially during peak periods.

Last summer OZ only used the A388 from 26 December 16

Any update on SEA / ORD / more DFW?

CHI2DFW wrote:

Any update on SEA / ORD / more DFW?

Possibly depends on the outcome of the AA JV, you have at the moment QF threatening to pull the DFW A380 if the JV application fails. I wonder if the new route ex BNE will be on hold for a while or if they might do BNE-SFO instead? Bigger local market and a destination already served from SYD and soon MEL.

qf789 wrote:

BITRE out for December

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1712.pdf

Whilst it should be a busy month for most carriers, some good load factors for UL. QF also continues to outperform VA on USA services (yes I know loadfactors = yield but QF fares are generally higher than VA anyway)

ZND has started descending into SYD, should be on the ground in about 20 mins

https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA6628/10959cd5