Yesterday in Bogota, the two countries signed a new bilateral that will see flights between the two countries increase significantly from the 4 weekly per side + 3 temporary weekly ones, a total of 7 frequencies per side, totally inadequate for today's demand.

Under the new bilateral, each side will receive 21 frequencies per side, to be increased to 28 next year for a total of 56 flights per week. The Argentinian side got what it wanted, which is full fifth freedom rights to points bey ond Colombia (what AR wanted) and the Colombian side also gets to fly from any city in Colombia to any city in Argentina - AV has been chomping at the bit to start BOG-COR, BOG-MDZ and BOG-ROS. The Argentinian side can also fly to points in Colombia beyond BOG.

LATAM Argentina or Colombia are now also free to launch flights between the two countries; Avianca can also add new flights using AV or A0.

https://aviacionline.com/2018/02/despue ... -colombia/

SEEMS like all are winners, but perhaps LATAM seems to be a major beneficiary here. Now they can actually fly between the two countries under a local flag, hopefully allowing restoration of service soon. Wouldn’t surprise me to see AV announce new Argentina within the next few weeks.
Any predictions on how AR would do fifth freedom from Colombia? I’m not sure they would do well with their inferior product and little recognition.

ahj2000 wrote:

SEEMS like all are winners, but perhaps LATAM seems to be a major beneficiary here. Now they can actually fly between the two countries under a local flag, hopefully allowing restoration of service soon. Wouldn’t surprise me to see AV announce new Argentina within the next few weeks.
Any predictions on how AR would do fifth freedom from Colombia? I’m not sure they would do well with their inferior product and little recognition.

I agree, it won't be easy for AR to take advantage of 5th freedom rights through Colombia. I would say BOG is out of the question, it would be hard to compete with AV's (and, to a lesser extent, LA's) massive hub. What they could try is something like EZE-CTG-LAX, although I'm sure the passenger numbers are not there...

We'll probably see EZE-BOG (or MDE or CTG)-MIA and EZE-BOG-JFK but boy do I want to see EZE-BOG-ATL

Though it'll definitely be difficult for AR to compete with the local product (AV)

So Argentina got a bit more than Colombia, I mean the 5th freedom from the latter?
Could any of these new frequencies and 5th freedom rights be granted to Norwegian Argentina?

jmmadrid wrote:

So Argentina got a bit more than Colombia, I mean the 5th freedom from the latter?
Could any of these new frequencies and 5th freedom rights be granted to Norwegian Argentina?

Both get 5th freedom rights, except that the only places were AV could make use of them would be to SCL, MVD or else, transporting penguins to Antarctica. By virtue of its location, EZE is, most of the times, the end of the line. Now here is an idea (crazy): AV could start BOG-EZE-AKL or BOG-EZE-JNB

Any airline designated as a national airline by Argentina can make use of these new frequencies and 5th freedom rights, so both LATAM Argentina, (4M) and Norwegian Argentina (DN) are able to do so. DN holds the authority to fly between EZE and BOG. The Arg-Col market needs some low cost TLC to upset the extortion-like high fares charged by both AR & AV.

pipeafcr wrote:

We'll probably see EZE-BOG (or MDE or CTG)-MIA and EZE-BOG-JFK but boy do I want to see EZE-BOG-ATL

Though it'll definitely be difficult for AR to compete with the local product (AV)

AR has no plans in the immediate future to start exploiting the 5th freedom rights from Colombia to the US. And lets not forget that all of AR's US flights are coordinated and codeshared with the good people of Delta Air Lines. Not sure of an ATL leg from BOG, I'd put my money on LAX, eventually, always with Delta within the Skyteam framework. And lets not forget that under this new agreement, not everything has to begin/end with EZE. A COR-BOG-LAX, COR-BOG-CUN, ROS-BOG-HAV or something similar could be entirely possible - AND doable with the MAX 8s already on the AR fleet,

Well, they updated the bilateral from the 1980s to the 1990s. 28 weekly frequencies? Is that a joke? And frequency restrictions by destination?

Geez. I get Argentina is trying to be more liberal in its aviation policies but maybe this was not a baby-step kind of situation.

Cities in argentina such as COR, ROS, MDZ, SLA and TUC deserve to be well connected to the BOG hub. EZE also deserves to be well connected to BOG, MDE, CLO and CTG.

This expansion will only allow for a scarce expansion of frequencies on the BOG-EZE sector and minimal connectivity to provincial cities. Sad.

dcajet wrote:

jmmadrid wrote:

So Argentina got a bit more than Colombia, I mean the 5th freedom from the latter?
Could any of these new frequencies and 5th freedom rights be granted to Norwegian Argentina?

Both get 5th freedom rights, except that the only places were AV could make use of them would be to SCL, MVD or else, transporting penguins to Antarctica.

LOL

dcajet wrote:

Any airline designated as a national airline by Argentina can make use of these new frequencies and 5th freedom rights, so both LATAM Argentina, (4M) and Norwegian Argentina (DN) are able to do so. DN holds the authority to fly between EZE and BOG.

WOW Sounds like a good opportunity for Norwegian to increase flights to the USA through the back door. BOG-MIA, BOG-FLL or BOG-JFK would not be a bad idea.

RCS763AV wrote:

Well, they updated the bilateral from the 1980s to the 1990s. 28 weekly frequencies? Is that a joke? And frequency restrictions by destination?

Geez. I get Argentina is trying to be more liberal in its aviation policies but maybe this was not a baby-step kind of situation.

Cities in argentina such as COR, ROS, MDZ, SLA and TUC deserve to be well connected to the BOG hub. EZE also deserves to be well connected to BOG, MDE, CLO and CTG.

This expansion will only allow for a scarce expansion of frequencies on the BOG-EZE sector and minimal connectivity to provincial cities. Sad.

I am confused. Where are you getting your information from? AFAIK, the only restriction is that only 7 of the 28 weekly frequencies can have fifth freedom rights

IDK, but if, say AV goes from daily to 3 daily BOG-EZE, does is not a scarce expansion, if you ask me.

Can MDE generate enough traffic to Argentina? Just asking, IDK.

dcajet wrote:

Both get 5th freedom rights, except that the only places were AV could make use of them would be to SCL, MVD or else, transporting penguins to Antarctica.

Probably AV won't exercise 5th freedom rights beyond Argentina as there is an Avianca Argentina capable of flying any beyond place without restrictions.

But I don't think 5th freedoms restrict the beyond flight to be exactly a straight line from the previous flight.
AV could market a direct flight BOG-EZE-LIM under this new 5th freedom right by simply using one BOG-LIM and one BOG-EZE right from each country and both Argentina and Peru allowing 5th freedoms ex-EZE and ex-LIM. But would they? Avianca Peru can fly LIM-EZE and Avianca Argentina can fly EZE-LIM so why the hassle.

jmmadrid wrote:

WOW Sounds like a good opportunity for Norwegian to increase flights to the USA through the back door. BOG-MIA, BOG-FLL or BOG-JFK would not be a bad idea.

Yes, but it seems by only 1 daily flight. DN could be granted rights to fly Argentina-Colombia and even Argentina-Colombia-Beyond. But they also need rights on Argentina-Beyond to do so. And the "country of Beyond" also must allow DN to come, not from their home country but, from a third one. Don't know exactly what the ASA between Argentina and the US says regarding this...

dcajet wrote:

I am confused. Where are you getting your information from? AFAIK, the only restriction is that only 7 of the 28 weekly frequencies can have fifth freedom rights

IDK, but if, say AV goes from daily to 3 daily BOG-EZE, does is not a scarce expansion, if you ask me.

Can MDE generate enough traffic to Argentina? Just asking, IDK.

Probably not.

Avianca has been flying a sole E-190 daily on the MDE-LIM for many years now. Well-timed for connections to the southern cone beyond LIM, and extremely convenient for bypassing BOG. That said, if this connection to a hub such as LIM hasn't been upgraded in equipment or frequency in so many years, I doubt there's market for any other nonstop flight to deep South America from Medellin for now.

I'm thinking this could be good for flights between Argentina and Central America. It would allow AR, for example, to fly to San Jose with a stop in Cartagena or to fly to Panama with a stop in Medellin. It will also enable AV to offer these kinds of connections between Central America and Argentina and hopefully lower prices.

dcajet wrote:

jmmadrid wrote:

So Argentina got a bit more than Colombia, I mean the 5th freedom from the latter?
Could any of these new frequencies and 5th freedom rights be granted to Norwegian Argentina?

Both get 5th freedom rights, except that the only places were AV could make use of them would be to SCL, MVD or else, transporting penguins to Antarctica. By virtue of its location, EZE is, most of the times, the end of the line. Now here is an idea (crazy): AV could start BOG-EZE-AKL or BOG-EZE-JNB

AV perhaps don't need to rely on 5th freedom rights to launch international flights ex EZE. Although not yet the same company, Avianca Argentina (A0) having an Argentinian AOC means they can already launch flights ex EZE the same way as for example Taca Peru flying ex LIM.

dcajet wrote:

RCS763AV wrote:

Well, they updated the bilateral from the 1980s to the 1990s. 28 weekly frequencies? Is that a joke? And frequency restrictions by destination?

Geez. I get Argentina is trying to be more liberal in its aviation policies but maybe this was not a baby-step kind of situation.

Cities in argentina such as COR, ROS, MDZ, SLA and TUC deserve to be well connected to the BOG hub. EZE also deserves to be well connected to BOG, MDE, CLO and CTG.

This expansion will only allow for a scarce expansion of frequencies on the BOG-EZE sector and minimal connectivity to provincial cities. Sad.

I am confused. Where are you getting your information from? AFAIK, the only restriction is that only 7 of the 28 weekly frequencies can have fifth freedom rights

IDK, but if, say AV goes from daily to 3 daily BOG-EZE, does is not a scarce expansion, if you ask me.

Can MDE generate enough traffic to Argentina? Just asking, IDK.

1. You're right. I misread the official government's press release where it says it establishes 28 weekly frequencies between Bogotá and Buenos Aires with the possibility of launching daily flights to other cities. I guess there is no restriction at all.

2. However, I still find the new frequencies insufficient. As I said, service to secondary Argentinian cities will be very limited from the BOG hub and secondary Colombian cities will be very limited from EZE too. Yes, AV going three daily on BOG-EZE will be an increase. But in the overall picture, what about competition? What happens when in 5 years the market has matured and flights are packed full again?

3. I'm sure MDE, CTG and CLO generate enough traffic for three to four weekly narrowbody frequencies as of now. In a good economy and with direct connections i'm sure that figure would expand and those cities could generate decent yield. LATAM is relaunching LIM-MDE next month and CM and AV route a lot of traffic through their respective hubs in PTY and BOG.

4. If it had been me, I would have negotiated a treaty with 63 weekly frequencies for each side, with 14 weekly fifth freedoms. That way, I would ensure the following:

1. AV is able to match the three daily banks at BOG by flying 3x daily to EZE.
2. Low cost airlines are able to enter the market with decent frequencies (i'm thinking Viva, Flybondi and Norwegian), breaking the Avianca/LATAM market concentration.
3. AR is able to fly multiple daily frequencies to Colombia as it can generate fifth freedom traffic on top of local traffic (as EZE will never be a good connecting hub for Colombian traffic).
4. Important secondary Argentinian cities get daily connections to BOG by AV.

With the new bilateral, what they did was just a taylor made solution to the existing competitors in the market (Avianca and AR), granting a possibility for LATAM to restart the BOG-EZE route with its Argentinian or Colombian subsidiaries. There is no real possibility of good connections to BOG for the likes of COR, ROS, MDZ et al, and no real possibility for low cost airlines to enter the market before the large network airlines flood it with frequencies.

It is the typical shortsighted decision latin american authorities tend to make. Let's hope Cristina and Peronismo don't come into power during the next election and it takes Argentina another 30 years to negotiate new frequencies.

Well, Panama and Argentina reviewed their bilateral to what it is today twice already since the Macri administration came to power, and COPA is already asking for more frequencies. Colombia can do the same. But you've got to start somewhere and this is a good start.

Cristina? Stranger things have happened but the woman is a walking political corpse. She has a fixed base of ~3M supporters, and that is her ceiling, That is not enough to win any national election in Argentina. Besides, she has so many active judicial processes against her and her posse that she will spend the rest of her remaining active years (she is 65) visiting courthouse after courthouse. That is, if she doesn't land in prison, which is likely. Most of her lieutenants are already enjoying state-sponsored vacations.

Peronism? One can never discount the Peronists' ability to reinvent themselves, but they have not won a national election since 2013. That is a record for their lot.. Right now, the best analogy I can think of is of a burlap sac full of cats inside, fighting for control. The common thread to those cats is their hatred for Cristina Kirchner, who is seen as the captain of all their defeats since 2013.

This bilateral, and most bilaterals, is written in terms of airplane flights. Of course that incentives larger aircraft. Why are they not written in terms of total seats? This would seem to better capture the economic criteria the governments are looking to regulate.

For example instead of 28 flights per week, why not 9000 seats per week?

dcajet wrote:

Well, Panama and Argentina reviewed their bilateral to what it is today twice already since the Macri administration came to power, and COPA is already asking for more frequencies. Colombia can do the same. But you've got to start somewhere and this is a good start.

Panamá most likely will get more frequencies, but for those extra EZE frequencies CM really is looking for, CM would have to increase frequencies outside EZE and perhaps even have to start SLA and/or TUC.

That's why JJ cancelled its GRU-EZE-BOG route.

thgsr08 wrote:

That's why JJ cancelled its GRU-EZE-BOG route.

Nah... JJ needs the 767 for Brazil now that demand is picking up. The above flight was a good way to keep aircraft utilization at acceptable levels when Brazil was in the thick of it. Besides, I am certain LATAM knew the new bilateral was coming so they can start the route with either Argentinian or Colombian metal if they are interested - which I am sure they are.