Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
BENAir01 wrote:Thank you, as always!
“AI SFO-DEL APR 0.9>1.3 MAY 0.8>1.3 JUN 0.9>1.3 JUL 0.8>1.3 AUG 0.9>1.3 SEP 0.9>1.3 OCT 0.8>1.2”
Any info on what the schedule for the extra flights will be? Maybe an afternoon departure from DEL, arrive in the evening, and then an overnight back?
Cointrin330 wrote:Guessing the AS Florida drops (LAX-MCO and SFO-FLL) are VX flights that didn't make money?
tys777 wrote:With NK dropping ORD-MSP I'm curious where the aircraft will come from to operate MSP-ATL.
enilria wrote:*AS FLL-SFO JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS LAX-MCO JUL 1.0>0.2 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
I guess they must return these MEX slots?
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 2>1.6 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
enilria wrote:B6 BOS-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 3>5
B6 BOS-RDU SEP 5>6
B6 LGB-LAS JUL 7>5 AUG 7>5 SEP 7>5
enilria wrote:WN ATL-BOS SEP 3>2
jetbluefan1 wrote:enilria wrote:WN ATL-BOS SEP 3>2
I know SEP is low season, but 2x is not competitive with DL's shuttle-like operation and B6's 5x. I wonder if this will stick around for much longer...
Midwestindy wrote:FWIW, WN already added OAK and SAN from EWR a little while back
jetbluefan1 wrote:Thanks enilria! Lots of interesting updates this week...enilria wrote:WN ATL-BOS SEP 3>2
I know SEP is low season, but 2x is not competitive with DL's shuttle-like operation and B6's 5x. I wonder if this will stick around for much longer...
Midwestindy wrote:FWIW, WN already added OAK and SAN from EWR a little while back
phluser wrote:My sense is WN in ATL attracts the value segment of the business traffic bookings (likely, a lot of smaller businesses in Atlanta like using WN, as I've experienced some), and of course, WN can route connections through ATL.
enilria wrote:*3M HSV-MCO JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
Cointrin330 wrote:Guessing the AS Florida drops (LAX-MCO and SFO-FLL) are VX flights that didn't make money?
jetbluefan1 wrote:Thanks enilria! Lots of interesting updates this week...
It looks like the combined AS management is starting to act on some of the VX network's lowest yielding routes. FLL-SFO I suspect became especially tough once B6 rolled out Mint, which has done well.
LAX-MCO is one of the lowest yielding transcon markets with what, 5 different carriers flying it? Not surprised to see AS exit.
Regarding LAX-MEX, my recollection is that the reallocated MEX slots required B6 to start LAX-MEX by summer 2018. Is that still happening? Schedules still haven't been loaded...
Good to see the increase on BOS-ORD continue through the fall. Let's see if it sticks around through the winter...
So is B6 returning a second slot back to LGB (in addition to the one that went to HA)?
I know SEP is low season, but 2x is not competitive with DL's shuttle-like operation and B6's 5x. I wonder if this will stick around for much longer...
phluser wrote:jetbluefan1 wrote:
I know SEP is low season, but 2x is not competitive with DL's shuttle-like operation and B6's 5x. I wonder if this will stick around for much longer...
WN also flies 2x daily PIT-ATL, and 2x CLE-ATL (originally at CAK at 3x daily), and for a period PHL-ATL was 2x daily. When PIT dropped to 2x daily and stayed at that, I was surprised how it kept attractive for business passengers against DL's much greater frequency at the same airport. At DAL, it might be viable for 1x against AA at DFW, but at ATL, WN is right up against DL with high frequency.
My sense is WN in ATL attracts the value segment of the business traffic bookings (likely, a lot of smaller businesses in Atlanta like using WN, as I've experienced some), and of course, WN can route connections through ATL.
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
WN MCO-EWR JUL 2>1.2 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0
enilria wrote:enilria wrote:*3M HSV-MCO JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
I thought this was kinda interesting.
tphuang wrote:BOS-ATL is a huge bloodbath. NK yields are at LAX-PDX/SEA level right before they cut those routes, so I think they are toast. B6 is definitely loosing money. WN is definitely loosing money also. DL is down $100 per passengers, don't think they are making much money either. B6 is tolerating this kind of losses for network reasons and hoping that one or both of NK/WN dropping out. Long term, I see this as a route with only B6 and DL. Same with BOS-MSP in a couple of years time.
enilria wrote:enilria wrote:*3M HSV-MCO JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
I thought this was kinda interesting.
Dominion301 wrote:DL CVG-XNA JUL 0.7>0.5
That doesn't bode well for the P&G Walmart express or is it just a few flights cut around July 4th...or is it cut to 4x weekly for the month?
Doesn't CVG-XNA normally operate X67?
enilria wrote:
*AS FLL-SFO JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS LAX-MCO JUL 1.0>0.2 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
I guess they must return these MEX slots?
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 2>1.6 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
AS LAX-PVR AUG 1.5>1.4
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS SAN-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
AS SEA-BNA JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS SEA-BUR JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS SEA-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
*WN EWR-OAK SEP 0>1.0
WN IND-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN MCO-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN MSP-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN OAK-ONT AUG 7>8
WN OAK-PVR AUG 1.0>0.3
WN OAK-RNO JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.8
WN OAK-SAT JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN OAK-SEA JUL 6>7
tphuang wrote:BOS-ATL is a huge bloodbath. NK yields are at LAX-PDX/SEA level right before they cut those routes, so I think they are toast.
*AS SAN-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
B6 YOY Compare
B6 BOS-SAN JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
*WN EWR-SAN SEP 0>1.0
BENAir01 wrote:Thank you, as always!
“AI SFO-DEL APR 0.9>1.3 MAY 0.8>1.3 JUN 0.9>1.3 JUL 0.8>1.3 AUG 0.9>1.3 SEP 0.9>1.3 OCT 0.8>1.2”
Any info on what the schedule for the extra flights will be? Maybe an afternoon departure from DEL, arrive in the evening, and then an overnight back?
tphuang wrote:BOS-ATL is a huge bloodbath. NK yields are at LAX-PDX/SEA level right before they cut those routes, so I think they are toast. B6 is definitely loosing money. WN is definitely loosing money also. DL is down $100 per passengers, don't think they are making much money either. B6 is tolerating this kind of losses for network reasons and hoping that one or both of NK/WN dropping out. Long term, I see this as a route with only B6 and DL. Same with BOS-MSP in a couple of years time.
enilria wrote:UA ORD-FCO OCT 0.1>0.8
ericm2031 wrote:Interesting if AS gives up their MEX slots as WN gave up 2 of their pairs too.
Is there a reason why they don't operate SEA-MEX?
jb1087xna wrote:Thanks as always Enilria!Dominion301 wrote:DL CVG-XNA JUL 0.7>0.5
That doesn't bode well for the P&G Walmart express or is it just a few flights cut around July 4th...or is it cut to 4x weekly for the month?
Doesn't CVG-XNA normally operate X67?
Looks like the July 4th theory is correct. The flight is gone for that entire week. After then it's back to M-F for the rest of the month.
I mentioned it in another thread, but I don't think the equipment downgrade to a regularly scheduled CR2 bodes well for the flight. DL at XNA has been CR7 at minimum (other than holiday weeks or one-off flights) for over a year, yet the CR2 is coming back for XNA-CVG in April. I'd assume if there was that much business demand, the fares would offset the use of a CR7. Though if DL gives up the flight, a big portion of the XNA originating traffic will likely go to AA.
adamh8297 wrote:I always thought NK-WN-B6 was often like rock paper scissors.
NK beats WN
adamh8297 wrote:B6 beats NK
adamh8297 wrote:WN beats B6
wedgetail737 wrote:I'm not too surprised to see some routes out of the SFO being dropped considering the yields and competition in those markets.
ericm2031 wrote:Interesting if AS gives up their MEX slots as WN gave up 2 of their pairs too.
SANFan wrote:My question earlier in the thread was whether these slots are available for AAG to use elsewhere in their network or do they go back in the MEX-Bilateral pool? (I assume it's the latter.)
flymco753 wrote:DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.
SANFan wrote:ericm2031 wrote:Interesting if AS gives up their MEX slots as WN gave up 2 of their pairs too.
Is there a reason why they don't operate SEA-MEX?
What AAG did was cancel an entire EMJ daily operation: SAN-MEX-LAX-MEX-SAN. They still operate a 737 r/t between LAX and MEX, which ties in with a SFO-MEX r/t. So yes, AAG is finished with 1 LAX-MEX slot and a single SAN-MEX slot. My question earlier in the thread was whether these slots are available for AAG to use elsewhere in their network or do they go back in the MEX-Bilateral pool? (I assume it's the latter.)
Otherwise, would they maybe be able to use 1 slot each to start SEA-MEX and PDX-MEX, both of which they elected not to serve when the slots were originally awarded?
My other question remains, what will they do with the newly-available EMJ as of May 20??? New route? More frequency in an existing market? Return it to OO perhaps relieving some crew availability pressure?
bb
enilria wrote:adamh8297 wrote:I always thought NK-WN-B6 was often like rock paper scissors.
NK beats WN
Agreedadamh8297 wrote:B6 beats NK
I don't agree. Reverse. I think in FLL, NK does fine. Maybe better.adamh8297 wrote:WN beats B6
I don't agree. Reverse. WN has failed at gaining ground in B6 focus cities like BOS, NYC, and to a large extent FLL.wedgetail737 wrote:I'm not too surprised to see some routes out of the SFO being dropped considering the yields and competition in those markets.
An unfortunate consequence of AS backing off transcons is that it makes an AS-B6 merger easier.
BobbyPSP wrote:UA’s FLL/MCO - SFO are timed for the prime Asia bank. Plus west coast connections of course.
MCO-LAX seems more timed for entertainment business between the two cities, along with connections to SIN and SYD
enilria wrote:I expect the Mexican LCCs to get more of these slots.SANFan wrote:My question earlier in the thread was whether these slots are available for AAG to use elsewhere in their network or do they go back in the MEX-Bilateral pool? (I assume it's the latter.)
Pretty sure the pool.
wedgetail737 wrote:SANFan wrote:ericm2031 wrote:Interesting if AS gives up their MEX slots as WN gave up 2 of their pairs too.
Is there a reason why they don't operate SEA-MEX?
What AAG did was cancel an entire EMJ daily operation: SAN-MEX-LAX-MEX-SAN. They still operate a 737 r/t between LAX and MEX, which ties in with a SFO-MEX r/t. So yes, AAG is finished with 1 LAX-MEX slot and a single SAN-MEX slot. My question earlier in the thread was whether these slots are available for AAG to use elsewhere in their network or do they go back in the MEX-Bilateral pool? (I assume it's the latter.)
Otherwise, would they maybe be able to use 1 slot each to start SEA-MEX and PDX-MEX, both of which they elected not to serve when the slots were originally awarded?
My other question remains, what will they do with the newly-available EMJ as of May 20??? New route? More frequency in an existing market? Return it to OO perhaps relieving some crew availability pressure?
bb
AS is contracting SkyWest CRJ-200's to fly on several of the routes out of SEA and PDX to places like GEG, BOI, RNO and FAT...just to name a few. I still think we will see these EMJ's filling in additional longer-haul Q400 routes like RNO, FAT and STS...eventually. Perhaps we'll also see additional frequencies on existing, developing routes. Lastly, there will be quite a few EMJ resources to be used out of PAE when that starts in the Fall.
jetbluefan1 wrote:enilria wrote:WN ATL-BOS SEP 3>2
I know SEP is low season, but 2x is not competitive with DL's shuttle-like operation and B6's 5x. I wonder if this will stick around for much longer...
enilria wrote:WN MCO-ABQ JUL 1.0>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.1
knope2001 wrote:jetbluefan1 wrote:enilria wrote:WN ATL-BOS SEP 3>2
I know SEP is low season, but 2x is not competitive with DL's shuttle-like operation and B6's 5x. I wonder if this will stick around for much longer...
A little brow-furrowing to see the number of weekday September flights for some Boston markets:
2x Atlanta
1x Columbus
1x Houston
1x Indianapolis
Sure, September is a week month because kids are back in school and people who have taken summer vacations are not primed to take another getaway so quickly after summer has ended. But September is not a weak business month and the level of service is just not worth much in these competitive business-travel city pairs.
This is a good-economy era with reasonable fuel prices and yet Southwest is choosing to trim back this flying. How will they do when we have $110 oil or a recession? If Southwest want to compete solidly for business travel in market like these they either need to stick it out in slower months or look to smaller aircraft. Of course nothing says they have to be going for the business market in these city pairs, but that raises the question of who do they want to be. When an Atlanta flyer can't get a nonstop to Boston until 1:30 in the afternoon it sure doesn't help build loyalty. And when you consider that travelers typically have to seek out Southwest specifically, whose to say they will bother checking Southwest the next time they fly even if there is a morning nonstop back in the schedule
Alias1024 wrote:enilria wrote:WN MCO-ABQ JUL 1.0>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.1
Sure didn't take WN very long to tuck tail and run after Frontier announced the route.
wedgetail737 wrote:enilria wrote:
*AS FLL-SFO JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS LAX-MCO JUL 1.0>0.2 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
I guess they must return these MEX slots?
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 2>1.6 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
AS LAX-PVR AUG 1.5>1.4
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS SAN-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
AS SEA-BNA JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS SEA-BUR JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS SEA-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
*WN EWR-OAK SEP 0>1.0
WN IND-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN MCO-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN MSP-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN OAK-ONT AUG 7>8
WN OAK-PVR AUG 1.0>0.3
WN OAK-RNO JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.8
WN OAK-SAT JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN OAK-SEA JUL 6>7
I'm not too surprised to see some routes out of the SFO being dropped considering the yields and competition in those markets. It is my guess that the drop in LAX-MEX service and the dropped SAN-MEX have more to do with low loads. I'm sure we'll see much more rearranging of flights when the VX schedule is integrated with AS schedules.
I'm really impressed with WN's expansion of OAK. I never realized that WN had been adding some of those routes at OAK!
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:BobbyPSP wrote:UA’s FLL/MCO - SFO are timed for the prime Asia bank. Plus west coast connections of course.
MCO-LAX seems more timed for entertainment business between the two cities, along with connections to SIN and SYD
I think both are fine for now. MCO suffering from over saturation to the west coast and low yields. ULCC competition also.
FLL being killed by Mint. In fact, I'm told by a reliable person that AA is feeling the impact on MIA transcoms that compete with B6 FLL Mint operations (FLL-
LAX/SFO).
enilria wrote:adamh8297 wrote:WN beats B6
I don't agree. Reverse. WN has failed at gaining ground in B6 focus cities like BOS, NYC, and to a large extent FLL.
flymco753 wrote:DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.
jetero wrote:flymco753 wrote:DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.
It amazes me that people think there’s a market from DTW to BJX.