Delta CSeries deliveries to begin this year

DeSpringbokke · Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:03 am

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... es-447653/

The first CS100s for Delta will arrive this year, but its going to be a fourth quarter event. No more than a handful according to Ed. Entry into service will be in the first quarter of next year.

cheapgreek · Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:56 am

Slightly off topic, will the CS100 work off HVN's 5600 foot runway? At present, AA has CRJ-200's on the HVN-PHL and are doing very well with many sold out flights and some oversold. The airport is in the midst of trying to pave the overruns to get to over 6000 feet. In the past, NW tried twice to propose HVN-DTW flights, first with a DC-9 and then a CRJ-200. It was found there would be weight restrictions at certain times due to the runway. With many NW people at DL and the success of AA's service, just wondering if DL could do DTW with the CS100 which I read is very good off short runways.Thanks.

sasd209 · Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:02 am

Takeoff run at MTOW is 4800', don't see why not..

AirFiero · Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:19 pm

The 717s obviously won’t last forever. Are the C series supposed to be the eventual replacement?

Midwestindy · Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:20 pm

AirFiero wrote:
The 717s obviously won’t last forever. Are the C series supposed to be the eventual replacement?

CS100s are for the MD88s

MIflyer12 · Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:02 pm

If you believe the fleet plan in the 12/17 Investor Day presentation, CS100s replace the CR7/CR9 that get shifted down to replace the CR2s.

FSDan · Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:02 pm

AirFiero wrote:
The 717s obviously won’t last forever. Are the C series supposed to be the eventual replacement?

Last I heard, the 717s are supposed to be getting consolidated to MSP/DTW/ATL eventually, with the CS100s taking over 717-type routes in the West and in NYC. I expect that as M88 and M90 aircraft are retired, you'll see a mix of 717s, 738s, 739s, and 321s backfilling.

ahj2000 · Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
If you believe the fleet plan in the 12/17 Investor Day presentation, CS100s replace the CR7/CR9 that get shifted down to replace the CR2s.

I just don’t see that except maybe in Atlanta reducing a freq or two a day. MDs make so much more sense

Bluegrass60 · Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:57 pm

DeSpringbokke wrote:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/delta-sees-early-2019-debut-for-cseries-447653/

The first CS100s for Delta will arrive this year, but its going to be a fourth quarter event. No more than a handful according to Ed. Entry into service will be in the first quarter of next year.

"Delta intends to operate the C-Series out of coastal bases to mid-country outstations. Predictions? LAX-SDF; SFO-SDF; SEA-SDF; BOS-SDF

ERJ170 · Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:47 pm

Color me biased, but I could see some RDU routes upgraded.. AUS, BOS, NYC, DCA, MCO, TPA, and a few others.. simply because DL seems to be upguaging rather than expanding at RDU at the moment.. of addition, ORD and DFW have to be near the top of their radar..

cvgComair · Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:55 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
If you believe the fleet plan in the 12/17 Investor Day presentation, CS100s replace the CR7/CR9 that get shifted down to replace the CR2s.

I just don’t see that except maybe in Atlanta reducing a freq or two a day. MDs make so much more sense

That doesn't make much sense as the CSeries is a huge downgrade from the MD's. Like the indirect replacements with the CSeries, the new A321's/B739's are replacing B738/A319/A320's that get shifted down to replace the MD88/90's. As MIflyer12 said, the CS100's are indirectly replacing the CR2's.

ERJ170 wrote:
Color me biased, but I could see some RDU routes upgraded.. AUS, BOS, NYC, DCA, MCO, TPA, and a few others.. simply because DL seems to be upguaging rather than expanding at RDU at the moment.. of addition, ORD and DFW have to be near the top of their radar..

RDU is a perfect example of how the CSeries will be used. They can use the aircraft to upgrade the CR7/9's on routes like RDU-NYC/BOS/DCA/Florida/etc. Then those CR7/9's can be used to upgrade CR2 routes like RDU-PHL/CVG/BWI/etc.

MIflyer12 · Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:44 pm

cvgComair wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Color me biased, but I could see some RDU routes upgraded.. AUS, BOS, NYC, DCA, MCO, TPA, and a few others.. simply because DL seems to be upguaging rather than expanding at RDU at the moment.. of addition, ORD and DFW have to be near the top of their radar..

RDU is a perfect example of how the CSeries will be used. They can use the aircraft to upgrade the CR7/9's on routes like RDU-NYC/BOS/DCA/Florida/etc. Then those CR7/9's can be used to upgrade CR2 routes like RDU-PHL/CVG/BWI/etc.

That's really the only way it can work the math of the domestic seat departures chart to 2023 -- unless you think they're going to drop a huge number of today's CR2 routes. (Some, surely.)

They're dropping CR2 departures by 2/3.

Large RJ departures are static (from 20% to 18% on system growth, I expect).

Small narrowbody seats grow by ~50%. That's where the CS100s go, I believe.

Medium narrowbody seats drop by about 60%. That's the MD-88, MD-90, and some A320 retirements, I believe.

Large narrowbody seats nearly double, as the mediums get upgauged to 739/321/321neo. I'm not sure they have quite enough aircraft on order to do that, frankly. Maybe they'll be exercising some 321neo options, or place a new Max10 order.

Midwestindy · Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:52 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
"Delta intends to operate the C-Series out of coastal bases to mid-country outstations. Predictions? LAX-SDF; SFO-SDF; SEA-SDF; BOS-SDF

I'll give you LAX-SDF, but you probably won't see SFO-SDF, SEA-SDF, and BOS-SDF on the Cseries for a while

BoeingGuy · Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:56 pm

I’m looking forward to flying the C-series. I work for Boeing and I still root for the C-series success. From what I understand, it’s an awesome airplane. I wish AS would buy some.

DDR · Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:19 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
I’m looking forward to flying the C-series. I work for Boeing and I still root for the C-series success. From what I understand, it’s an awesome airplane. I wish AS would buy some.

Hey BoeingGuy, I work for a competing airline and I also am rooting for DL and the C-series. Anytime mainline crews work an aircraft is a good thing for everyone. The mainline airline hires people who get better wages, and passengers get a more streamlined service.

Bluegrass60 · Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:33 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
"Delta intends to operate the C-Series out of coastal bases to mid-country outstations. Predictions? LAX-SDF; SFO-SDF; SEA-SDF; BOS-SDF

I'll give you LAX-SDF, but you probably won't see SFO-SDF, SEA-SDF, and BOS-SDF on the Cseries for a while

":Midwestindy....why not?"

Expanding on that prediction a bit...DL should look at:
LAX-SDF-RIC or ORF
BOS-SDF-MEM or OKC
SFO-SDF-CHS or RDU
SEA-SDF-CHS or RDU

Reasons: SDF is one of larger markets without NS to LAX, SFO, SEA and BOS. The tag-ons would provide RIC, ORF, MEM, OKC, CHS, RDU with possible connections at SDF and new fare combi's to compete and win v AS and WN on those routes.

cvgComair · Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:09 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
"Delta intends to operate the C-Series out of coastal bases to mid-country outstations. Predictions? LAX-SDF; SFO-SDF; SEA-SDF; BOS-SDF

I'll give you LAX-SDF, but you probably won't see SFO-SDF, SEA-SDF, and BOS-SDF on the Cseries for a while

":Midwestindy....why not?"

Expanding on that prediction a bit...DL should look at:
LAX-SDF-RIC or ORF
BOS-SDF-MEM or OKC
SFO-SDF-CHS or RDU
SEA-SDF-CHS or RDU

Reasons: SDF is one of larger markets without NS to LAX, SFO, SEA and BOS. The tag-ons would provide RIC, ORF, MEM, OKC, CHS, RDU with possible connections at SDF and new fare combi's to compete and win v AS and WN on those routes.

Oh my...

Let's use some PDEW numbers for reference:
SDF-LAX: 139
SDF-BOS: 131
SDF-SFO: 91
SDF-SEA: 61
SDF-RDU: 36
SDF-RIC: 19
SDF-CHS: 17
SDF-ORF: 15
SDF-OKC: 15
SDF-MEM: <5

DL could add LAX and BOS, that seems pretty reasonable to me, but CRJ-700 is a more appropriate aircraft for SDF-BOS. Perhaps SDF-RDU could work on a 1x/day CRJ-200, but definitely not a CSeries.

As for the rest of the routes, no way, especially not on a 100 seat airplane. SDF-RIC/CHS/ORF/OKC/MEM would not even work on a CRJ-200, let alone a CSeries. SEA/SFO are just to thin, especially SFO, which isn't a hub for Delta.

There is no doubt that LEX/SDF see a significant loss of passengers due to CVG just 1-1.5 hrs up the road, but my guess is that DL would prefer not to draw traffic away from its Cincinnati operation. There is a reason DL has such little capacity in SDF/LEX, but this is another discussion for another forum.

MIflyer12 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:04 am

Pilots confirmed there's an AE that puts Delta's first CSeries base at NYC. That's not to say that they won't get to LAX (and need to come back), but LAX isn't going to be the focus of CSeries departures.

SumChristianus · Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:19 am

Replacements as I see it
CR2 > CR7/CR9
CR7/CR9 > 717/CS100
717 > A319
A319/MD88 > 73H
320/M90/73H > 739/321
In the end I still think DL needs more medium ~140-160 seat narrowbodies, can GSO-ATL, MEM-ATL, or DTW-PHL really support 7x daily A321/B739 for example?

Comparing timetables for DL growth areas like SEA/LAX/BOS/RDU is a great way to see this cascade effect.
SEA-LAS went from CR9/E75 to E75/717 to 717 to 717/319 to 319/73H for example over the past four or so years its been in operation, SEA-DEN went from 5x E75/CR9 to 4x 717, etc.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:49 am

cvgComair wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I'll give you LAX-SDF, but you probably won't see SFO-SDF, SEA-SDF, and BOS-SDF on the Cseries for a while

":Midwestindy....why not?"

Expanding on that prediction a bit...DL should look at:
LAX-SDF-RIC or ORF
BOS-SDF-MEM or OKC
SFO-SDF-CHS or RDU
SEA-SDF-CHS or RDU

Reasons: SDF is one of larger markets without NS to LAX, SFO, SEA and BOS. The tag-ons would provide RIC, ORF, MEM, OKC, CHS, RDU with possible connections at SDF and new fare combi's to compete and win v AS and WN on those routes.

Oh my...

Let's use some PDEW numbers for reference:
SDF-LAX: 139
SDF-BOS: 131
SDF-SFO: 91
SDF-SEA: 61
SDF-RDU: 36
SDF-RIC: 19
SDF-CHS: 17
SDF-ORF: 15
SDF-OKC: 15
SDF-MEM: <5

DL could add LAX and BOS, that seems pretty reasonable to me, but CRJ-700 is a more appropriate aircraft for SDF-BOS. Perhaps SDF-RDU could work on a 1x/day CRJ-200, but definitely not a CSeries.

As for the rest of the routes, no way, especially not on a 100 seat airplane. SDF-RIC/CHS/ORF/OKC/MEM would not even work on a CRJ-200, let alone a CSeries. SEA/SFO are just to thin, especially SFO, which isn't a hub for Delta.

There is no doubt that LEX/SDF see a significant loss of passengers due to CVG just 1-1.5 hrs up the road, but my guess is that DL would prefer not to draw traffic away from its Cincinnati operation. There is a reason DL has such little capacity in SDF/LEX, but this is another discussion for another forum.

"Oh my...I see these cites to PDEW and wonder where they come from and how accurate they are?? Reason for such little DL capacity at LEX/SDF (and DAY/IND/CMH) is likely tied to the legacy DL hub at CVG that would never have been able to operate as 'profitably' as it did/does (not that it is all that profitable) if capacity were increased in the surrounding airports. PDEW and other such stats ignore basic facts. SDF has zero NS to LAX/SFO/SEA. It serves a CSA with 1.5M people. CVG serves a CSA with 2.2M people. Last I checked CVG has NS service to LAX/SFO/SEA (multiple times/day)...yet it serves a population that is not 2x SDF. Same comparison to IND or BNA. The only reason any of those cities have multiple NS to the west coast is because of connections via "hub or focus operations" from DL and WN respectively. PDEW includes connecting traffic is my guess....or as a gov statistic is subject to just being wrong.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:56 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

":Midwestindy....why not?"

Expanding on that prediction a bit...DL should look at:
LAX-SDF-RIC or ORF
BOS-SDF-MEM or OKC
SFO-SDF-CHS or RDU
SEA-SDF-CHS or RDU

Reasons: SDF is one of larger markets without NS to LAX, SFO, SEA and BOS. The tag-ons would provide RIC, ORF, MEM, OKC, CHS, RDU with possible connections at SDF and new fare combi's to compete and win v AS and WN on those routes.

Oh my...

Let's use some PDEW numbers for reference:
SDF-LAX: 139
SDF-BOS: 131
SDF-SFO: 91
SDF-SEA: 61
SDF-RDU: 36
SDF-RIC: 19
SDF-CHS: 17
SDF-ORF: 15
SDF-OKC: 15
SDF-MEM: <5

DL could add LAX and BOS, that seems pretty reasonable to me, but CRJ-700 is a more appropriate aircraft for SDF-BOS. Perhaps SDF-RDU could work on a 1x/day CRJ-200, but definitely not a CSeries.

As for the rest of the routes, no way, especially not on a 100 seat airplane. SDF-RIC/CHS/ORF/OKC/MEM would not even work on a CRJ-200, let alone a CSeries. SEA/SFO are just to thin, especially SFO, which isn't a hub for Delta.

There is no doubt that LEX/SDF see a significant loss of passengers due to CVG just 1-1.5 hrs up the road, but my guess is that DL would prefer not to draw traffic away from its Cincinnati operation. There is a reason DL has such little capacity in SDF/LEX, but this is another discussion for another forum.

"Oh my...I see these cites to PDEW and wonder where they come from and how accurate they are?? Reason for such little DL capacity at LEX/SDF (and DAY/IND/CMH) is likely tied to the legacy DL hub at CVG that would never have been able to operate as 'profitably' as it did/does (not that it is all that profitable) if capacity were increased in the surrounding airports. PDEW and other such stats ignore basic facts. SDF has zero NS to LAX/SFO/SEA. It serves a CSA with 1.5M people. CVG serves a CSA with 2.2M people. Last I checked CVG has NS service to LAX/SFO/SEA (multiple times/day)...yet it serves a population that is not 2x SDF. Same comparison to IND or BNA. The only reason any of those cities have multiple NS to the west coast is because of connections via "hub or focus operations" from DL and WN respectively. PDEW includes connecting traffic is my guess....or as a gov statistic is subject to just being wrong.

"the other point am making is the tag-on flights....they would have multiple connection opps at SDF under the routes (with tag alongs suggested). Why would DL make SDF a focus city? They may never choose to do that...BUT...AA or UA or WN or Jet Blue could choose to do that very thing....and it likely would be successful; DAY operated a very successful little hub for PI back in the day....and the same operation could be created at SDF today....and likely be as successful....caveat is to keep it limited to a focus city with C Series aircraft (or similar). There are opps for limited pt to point with connections via focus cities all across the USA. The big hubs can only get so big.

cessna2 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:29 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Pilots confirmed there's an AE that puts Delta's first CSeries base at NYC. That's not to say that they won't get to LAX (and need to come back), but LAX isn't going to be the focus of CSeries departures.

The plan is to open up NYC first. After 15 CS100's are delivered, the plan is to open up LAX. Most of the 717's will return back to the east and the CS100's will takeover the majority of west coast 717 routes. Of course all this is subject to change.

TheRedBaron · Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:38 am

crownvic wrote:
For those that are impatient, the GeminiJets version comes out in April

The Gemini Jets version is subject to import tariffs? :duck:

I really hope PW gets its act together...and starts delivering by the ton, Bombardier and Airbus have a lot of delayed deliveries.

TRB

Midwestindy · Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:53 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

":Midwestindy....why not?"

Expanding on that prediction a bit...DL should look at:
LAX-SDF-RIC or ORF
BOS-SDF-MEM or OKC
SFO-SDF-CHS or RDU
SEA-SDF-CHS or RDU

Reasons: SDF is one of larger markets without NS to LAX, SFO, SEA and BOS. The tag-ons would provide RIC, ORF, MEM, OKC, CHS, RDU with possible connections at SDF and new fare combi's to compete and win v AS and WN on those routes.

Oh my...

Let's use some PDEW numbers for reference:
SDF-LAX: 139
SDF-BOS: 131
SDF-SFO: 91
SDF-SEA: 61
SDF-RDU: 36
SDF-RIC: 19
SDF-CHS: 17
SDF-ORF: 15
SDF-OKC: 15
SDF-MEM: <5

DL could add LAX and BOS, that seems pretty reasonable to me, but CRJ-700 is a more appropriate aircraft for SDF-BOS. Perhaps SDF-RDU could work on a 1x/day CRJ-200, but definitely not a CSeries.

As for the rest of the routes, no way, especially not on a 100 seat airplane. SDF-RIC/CHS/ORF/OKC/MEM would not even work on a CRJ-200, let alone a CSeries. SEA/SFO are just to thin, especially SFO, which isn't a hub for Delta.

There is no doubt that LEX/SDF see a significant loss of passengers due to CVG just 1-1.5 hrs up the road, but my guess is that DL would prefer not to draw traffic away from its Cincinnati operation. There is a reason DL has such little capacity in SDF/LEX, but this is another discussion for another forum.

"Oh my...I see these cites to PDEW and wonder where they come from and how accurate they are??

They are very accurate

Bluegrass60 wrote:

Reason for such little DL capacity at LEX/SDF (and DAY/IND/CMH)

DL has plenty of capacity at IND and CMH

Bluegrass60 wrote:
PDEW and other such stats ignore basic facts. SDF has zero NS to LAX/SFO/SEA. It serves a CSA with 1.5M people. CVG serves a CSA with 2.2M people. Last I checked CVG has NS service to LAX/SFO/SEA (multiple times/day)...yet it serves a population that is not 2x SDF. Same comparison to IND or BNA. The only reason any of those cities have multiple NS to the west coast is because of connections via "hub or focus operations" from DL and WN respectively. PDEW includes connecting traffic is my guess....or as a gov statistic is subject to just being wrong.

PDEW doesn't include connections, SDF doesn't have flights to the west coast, because it doesn't have the connections to the west that cities like IND or BNA do.

City populations mean nothing in aviation, those PDEW numbers are widely used by airlines, airports, e.t.c so for you to discredit them when you have no idea what they entail kind of discredits your argument.

Midwestindy · Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:07 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Oh my...

Let's use some PDEW numbers for reference:
SDF-LAX: 139
SDF-BOS: 131
SDF-SFO: 91
SDF-SEA: 61
SDF-RDU: 36
SDF-RIC: 19
SDF-CHS: 17
SDF-ORF: 15
SDF-OKC: 15
SDF-MEM: <5

DL could add LAX and BOS, that seems pretty reasonable to me, but CRJ-700 is a more appropriate aircraft for SDF-BOS. Perhaps SDF-RDU could work on a 1x/day CRJ-200, but definitely not a CSeries.

As for the rest of the routes, no way, especially not on a 100 seat airplane. SDF-RIC/CHS/ORF/OKC/MEM would not even work on a CRJ-200, let alone a CSeries. SEA/SFO are just to thin, especially SFO, which isn't a hub for Delta.

There is no doubt that LEX/SDF see a significant loss of passengers due to CVG just 1-1.5 hrs up the road, but my guess is that DL would prefer not to draw traffic away from its Cincinnati operation. There is a reason DL has such little capacity in SDF/LEX, but this is another discussion for another forum.

"Oh my...I see these cites to PDEW and wonder where they come from and how accurate they are?? Reason for such little DL capacity at LEX/SDF (and DAY/IND/CMH) is likely tied to the legacy DL hub at CVG that would never have been able to operate as 'profitably' as it did/does (not that it is all that profitable) if capacity were increased in the surrounding airports. PDEW and other such stats ignore basic facts. SDF has zero NS to LAX/SFO/SEA. It serves a CSA with 1.5M people. CVG serves a CSA with 2.2M people. Last I checked CVG has NS service to LAX/SFO/SEA (multiple times/day)...yet it serves a population that is not 2x SDF. Same comparison to IND or BNA. The only reason any of those cities have multiple NS to the west coast is because of connections via "hub or focus operations" from DL and WN respectively. PDEW includes connecting traffic is my guess....or as a gov statistic is subject to just being wrong.

"the other point am making is the tag-on flights....they would have multiple connection opps at SDF under the routes (with tag alongs suggested). Why would DL make SDF a focus city? They may never choose to do that...BUT...AA or UA or WN or Jet Blue could choose to do that very thing....and it likely would be successful; DAY operated a very successful little hub for PI back in the day....and the same operation could be created at SDF today....and likely be as successful....caveat is to keep it limited to a focus city with C Series aircraft (or similar). There are opps for limited pt to point with connections via focus cities all across the USA. The big hubs can only get so big.

Why would DL or any other airline try that? No airline is going to add a focus city that is reliant on connections in a small market like SDF. DL doesn't serve their hubs in SLC, LAX, SEA, and JFK, or serve their focus cities in RDU and BOS from SDF, but now DL would be interested in making it a focus city with flights like Louisville to Oklahoma city and Louisville to Norfolk.....c'mon. SDF should work on getting service to all the hub stations, before a focus city comes into the equation.

Faro · Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:39 am

On a sidenote, is it correct that CSeries' PW GTF's are not experiencing the troubles besetting their A320neo brethren?...

Faro

MIflyer12 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:52 am

SumChristianus wrote:
Replacements as I see it
CR2 > CR7/CR9
CR7/CR9 > 717/CS100
717 > A319
A319/MD88 > 73H
320/M90/73H > 739/321
In the end I still think DL needs more medium ~140-160 seat narrowbodies, can GSO-ATL, MEM-ATL, or DTW-PHL really support 7x daily A321/B739 for example?

Please review the December '17 Investor Day presentation. 'Medium size' narrowbodies are declining from 35% of seats in domestic departures to 15% in 2023. Slide #25.

Awachna · Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:33 pm

I know someone who works for an PL+C company that is a contractor for P&W. This company that my "friend" works for has not been doing P&W any favours in terms of on-time project deliveries. That's what contracting work out will do to you, I've seen it time and time again.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:14 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Oh my...

Let's use some PDEW numbers for reference:
SDF-LAX: 139
SDF-BOS: 131
SDF-SFO: 91
SDF-SEA: 61
SDF-RDU: 36
SDF-RIC: 19
SDF-CHS: 17
SDF-ORF: 15
SDF-OKC: 15
SDF-MEM: <5

DL could add LAX and BOS, that seems pretty reasonable to me, but CRJ-700 is a more appropriate aircraft for SDF-BOS. Perhaps SDF-RDU could work on a 1x/day CRJ-200, but definitely not a CSeries.

As for the rest of the routes, no way, especially not on a 100 seat airplane. SDF-RIC/CHS/ORF/OKC/MEM would not even work on a CRJ-200, let alone a CSeries. SEA/SFO are just to thin, especially SFO, which isn't a hub for Delta.

There is no doubt that LEX/SDF see a significant loss of passengers due to CVG just 1-1.5 hrs up the road, but my guess is that DL would prefer not to draw traffic away from its Cincinnati operation. There is a reason DL has such little capacity in SDF/LEX, but this is another discussion for another forum.

"Oh my...I see these cites to PDEW and wonder where they come from and how accurate they are??

They are very accurate

Bluegrass60 wrote:

Reason for such little DL capacity at LEX/SDF (and DAY/IND/CMH)

DL has plenty of capacity at IND and CMH

Bluegrass60 wrote:
PDEW and other such stats ignore basic facts. SDF has zero NS to LAX/SFO/SEA. It serves a CSA with 1.5M people. CVG serves a CSA with 2.2M people. Last I checked CVG has NS service to LAX/SFO/SEA (multiple times/day)...yet it serves a population that is not 2x SDF. Same comparison to IND or BNA. The only reason any of those cities have multiple NS to the west coast is because of connections via "hub or focus operations" from DL and WN respectively. PDEW includes connecting traffic is my guess....or as a gov statistic is subject to just being wrong.

PDEW doesn't include connections, SDF doesn't have flights to the west coast, because it doesn't have the connections to the west that cities like IND or BNA do.

"Huh? SDF has lots of connections available to the West Coast: ORD(14), MSP(3-4), DEN(3). LAS(1), PHX(1), DFW(4-5), IAH(4-5), ATL(10-12), CLT (7-8) (Nonstops/Day)"

City populations mean nothing in aviation, those PDEW numbers are widely used by airlines, airports, e.t.c so for you to discredit them when you have no idea what they entail kind of discredits your argument.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"Oh my...I see these cites to PDEW and wonder where they come from and how accurate they are?? Reason for such little DL capacity at LEX/SDF (and DAY/IND/CMH) is likely tied to the legacy DL hub at CVG that would never have been able to operate as 'profitably' as it did/does (not that it is all that profitable) if capacity were increased in the surrounding airports. PDEW and other such stats ignore basic facts. SDF has zero NS to LAX/SFO/SEA. It serves a CSA with 1.5M people. CVG serves a CSA with 2.2M people. Last I checked CVG has NS service to LAX/SFO/SEA (multiple times/day)...yet it serves a population that is not 2x SDF. Same comparison to IND or BNA. The only reason any of those cities have multiple NS to the west coast is because of connections via "hub or focus operations" from DL and WN respectively. PDEW includes connecting traffic is my guess....or as a gov statistic is subject to just being wrong.

"the other point am making is the tag-on flights....they would have multiple connection opps at SDF under the routes (with tag alongs suggested). Why would DL make SDF a focus city? They may never choose to do that...BUT...AA or UA or WN or Jet Blue could choose to do that very thing....and it likely would be successful; DAY operated a very successful little hub for PI back in the day....and the same operation could be created at SDF today....and likely be as successful....caveat is to keep it limited to a focus city with C Series aircraft (or similar). There are opps for limited pt to point with connections via focus cities all across the USA. The big hubs can only get so big.

Why would DL or any other airline try that? No airline is going to add a focus city that is reliant on connections in a small market like SDF. DL doesn't serve their hubs in SLC, LAX, SEA, and JFK, or serve their focus cities in RDU and BOS from SDF, but now DL would be interested in making it a focus city with flights like Louisville to Oklahoma city and Louisville to Norfolk.....c'mon. SDF should work on getting service to all the hub stations, before a focus city comes into the equation.

"You are missing the point. Piedmont had a small hub operation in DAY in the 80's that was very profitable. It flew routes that would be very thin if pt to pt...but...they promoted a no nonsense hub at DAY. It worked until US bought PI and closed it because of proximity to PIT (at the time a fortress hub for US) and IND (then a focus city for US). What I describe is exactly what Jet Blue once talked about when discussing an expansion into fly-over country. DL could do same at SDF...as could WN, UA or AA. CSA for Louisville is 1.5M and it is geographically desirable (why do you think UPS is there?).

For a different perspective...I took the CSA of BNA, IND, CVG, MEM, CMH and SDF and divided it by the annual total passenger counts from 2017. BNA 6.9. IND 3.6. CVG 3.5 MEM 3.05 CMH 3.05 SDF 2.28
SDF has ZERO connecting traffic. BNA has substantial connecting traffic from WN. IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN. CVG is still considered a hub for DL and a focus for F9. MEM is not a hub or focus city. CMH has some WN "focus". I submit that a score > 3.05 could indicate presence of meaningful connecting traffic and below 3 could indicate under-served.

gsg013 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:43 pm

Does anyone think the C-Series could take over the ATL-EYW routes? Think its in similar specs as the 737-700. Also relatively short flight with many turns a day could be good for initial training.

tlecam · Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:33 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN.

What connecting traffic is DL flowing through Indianapolis?

To be clear, I'm not saying that passengers have not made a connection in IND, but I doubt that connecting passengers are anything but incidental.

Indy's DL destinations are almost all hubs / focus cities, with a couple of beach destinations.
Hubs
ATL
DTW
MSP
SEA
SLC
LAX
LGA
JFK
BOS
RDU
MCO
Ft. Myers
CUN

CDG

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 pm

tlecam wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN.

What connecting traffic is DL flowing through Indianapolis?

To be clear, I'm not saying that passengers have not made a connection in IND, but I doubt that connecting passengers are anything but incidental.

Indy's DL destinations are almost all hubs / focus cities, with a couple of beach destinations.
Hubs
ATL
DTW
MSP
SEA
SLC
LAX
LGA
JFK
BOS
RDU
MCO
Ft. Myers
CUN

CDG

" Am only surmising there is connecting traffic at Indy. Basis is 2017 Traffic = 8.7M/CSA population = 2.4M Divisor = 3.637. Compare that to CVG (a known DL hub/focus city). 2017 Traffic = 7.8M/CSA population = 2.2M Divisor = 3.5M. Cinci definitely has connecting traffic via DL and others. So if Indy CSA is 8% larger than CVG and CVG does have hub ops...why is Indy PAX level 12% higher than CVG?" other data point: IND CSA is 3% smaller than CMH yet has 16% more passengers? Maybe there is another reason for the differences? (I know that IND has had connecting operations throughout its history...Allegheny/USAir/American...NW/DL focus...ATA...

SumChristianus · Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:05 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Replacements as I see it
CR2 > CR7/CR9
CR7/CR9 > 717/CS100
717 > A319
A319/MD88 > 73H
320/M90/73H > 739/321
In the end I still think DL needs more medium ~140-160 seat narrowbodies, can GSO-ATL, MEM-ATL, or DTW-PHL really support 7x daily A321/B739 for example?

Please review the December '17 Investor Day presentation. 'Medium size' narrowbodies are declining from 35% of seats in domestic departures to 15% in 2023. Slide #25.

I understand that, I just think DL is taking a risk by decreasing its mid size narrowbody operations. ATL can easily fill large narrowbodies at reduced frequencies, but DL's smaller hubs would seem to require more of that type, as it just seems that replacing every MD88/MD90 departure in the DL system with an A321/B739 would be too large of a capacity jump.
Perhaps two MD88 flights would be replaced by one A321 and one CS300, which is less of a capacity jump than 2x 321?

The above plane types were just how I see their cascade strategy operating as they upgauge and grow, partuclarly from watching the SEA/LAX schedules.

WaywardMemphian · Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:13 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"the other point am making is the tag-on flights....they would have multiple connection opps at SDF under the routes (with tag alongs suggested). Why would DL make SDF a focus city? They may never choose to do that...BUT...AA or UA or WN or Jet Blue could choose to do that very thing....and it likely would be successful; DAY operated a very successful little hub for PI back in the day....and the same operation could be created at SDF today....and likely be as successful....caveat is to keep it limited to a focus city with C Series aircraft (or similar). There are opps for limited pt to point with connections via focus cities all across the USA. The big hubs can only get so big.

Why would DL or any other airline try that? No airline is going to add a focus city that is reliant on connections in a small market like SDF. DL doesn't serve their hubs in SLC, LAX, SEA, and JFK, or serve their focus cities in RDU and BOS from SDF, but now DL would be interested in making it a focus city with flights like Louisville to Oklahoma city and Louisville to Norfolk.....c'mon. SDF should work on getting service to all the hub stations, before a focus city comes into the equation.

"You are missing the point. Piedmont had a small hub operation in DAY in the 80's that was very profitable. It flew routes that would be very thin if pt to pt...but...they promoted a no nonsense hub at DAY. It worked until US bought PI and closed it because of proximity to PIT (at the time a fortress hub for US) and IND (then a focus city for US). What I describe is exactly what Jet Blue once talked about when discussing an expansion into fly-over country. DL could do same at SDF...as could WN, UA or AA. CSA for Louisville is 1.5M and it is geographically desirable (why do you think UPS is there?).

For a different perspective...I took the CSA of BNA, IND, CVG, MEM, CMH and SDF and divided it by the annual total passenger counts from 2017. BNA 6.9. IND 3.6. CVG 3.5 MEM 3.05 CMH 3.05 SDF 2.28
SDF has ZERO connecting traffic. BNA has substantial connecting traffic from WN. IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN. CVG is still considered a hub for DL and a focus for F9. MEM is not a hub or focus city. CMH has some WN "focus". I submit that a score > 3.05 could indicate presence of meaningful connecting traffic and below 3 could indicate under-served.

MEM is tricky. May I ask, where did you get your CSA numbers for MEM? I would instead use the within 2 hr drive or the TV viewing area of local Memphis stations. Either one puts Memphis over 2 million.

WaywardMemphian · Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:21 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
I’m looking forward to flying the C-series. I work for Boeing and I still root for the C-series success. From what I understand, it’s an awesome airplane. I wish AS would buy some.

SEA to STL, MEM, MCI with CS100 for example.

Alias1024 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:53 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:

For a different perspective...I took the CSA of BNA, IND, CVG, MEM, CMH and SDF and divided it by the annual total passenger counts from 2017. BNA 6.9. IND 3.6. CVG 3.5 MEM 3.05 CMH 3.05 SDF 2.28
SDF has ZERO connecting traffic. BNA has substantial connecting traffic from WN. IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN. CVG is still considered a hub for DL and a focus for F9. MEM is not a hub or focus city. CMH has some WN "focus". I submit that a score > 3.05 could indicate presence of meaningful connecting traffic and below 3 could indicate under-served.

Isn’t it just as likely that a score over 3.05 indicates an airport that draws passengers from outside its CSA. Look at a place like BOIwhich comes out to 4.63 based on your statistic or ABQ at 4.33. They punch above their weight because they draw from outside their cities, not heavy connecting traffic.

gsg013 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:14 pm

With BNA-ATL going 757 towards the end of the 2018 replacing MD-88/90's I think its possible MEM could reduce 1X frequency and go 757-200 on MEM-ATL. (Just my 2 cents).

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:55 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

For a different perspective...I took the CSA of BNA, IND, CVG, MEM, CMH and SDF and divided it by the annual total passenger counts from 2017. BNA 6.9. IND 3.6. CVG 3.5 MEM 3.05 CMH 3.05 SDF 2.28
SDF has ZERO connecting traffic. BNA has substantial connecting traffic from WN. IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN. CVG is still considered a hub for DL and a focus for F9. MEM is not a hub or focus city. CMH has some WN "focus". I submit that a score > 3.05 could indicate presence of meaningful connecting traffic and below 3 could indicate under-served.

Isn’t it just as likely that a score over 3.05 indicates an airport that draws passengers from outside its CSA. Look at a place like BOIwhich comes out to 4.63 based on your statistic or ABQ at 4.33. They punch above their weight because they draw from outside their cities, not heavy connecting traffic.

"Perhaps, however ABQ and BOI are 'remote Western cities' (the entire state of NM has 2.1M people; ID has 1.7M) that use air travel more than Eastern cities where distance are much less between cities. Closest big city to BOI is PDX or SLC and they are both @400 miles away; nearest big city to ABQ is DEN or PHX and they are both 400+ miles away. 400 mile radius of most cities in the East will identify many big cities 200 miles or less.

Here are some scores for mega hubs: DEN 19.09. CLT 18.09. ATL 16.96 ORD 8.06

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:04 pm

gsg013 wrote:
With BNA-ATL going 757 towards the end of the 2018 replacing MD-88/90's I think its possible MEM could reduce 1X frequency and go 757-200 on MEM-ATL. (Just my 2 cents).

"where did you see BNA-ATL up gauging to 757? Looking at 12/18 schedule there are only the mad dogs. With WN adding 5 daily NS BNA-ATL....if DL added the 757 capacity....nobody will be making money on that route"

WaywardMemphian · Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:25 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
gsg013 wrote:
With BNA-ATL going 757 towards the end of the 2018 replacing MD-88/90's I think its possible MEM could reduce 1X frequency and go 757-200 on MEM-ATL. (Just my 2 cents).

"where did you see BNA-ATL up gauging to 757? Looking at 12/18 schedule there are only the mad dogs. With WN adding 5 daily NS BNA-ATL....if DL added the 757 capacity....nobody will be making money on that route"

2 hr drive catchment for MEM is 2.7 million with 2.6 million being within 100 miles of MEM, now some of that bumps up with Jackson MS, Little Rock AR, Birmingham Al and Nashville TN.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:47 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
gsg013 wrote:
With BNA-ATL going 757 towards the end of the 2018 replacing MD-88/90's I think its possible MEM could reduce 1X frequency and go 757-200 on MEM-ATL. (Just my 2 cents).

"where did you see BNA-ATL up gauging to 757? Looking at 12/18 schedule there are only the mad dogs. With WN adding 5 daily NS BNA-ATL....if DL added the 757 capacity....nobody will be making money on that route"

2 hr drive catchment for MEM is 2.7 million with 2.6 million being within 100 miles of MEM, now some of that bumps up with Jackson MS, Little Rock AR, Birmingham Al and Nashville TN.

"2 hr drive catchment for SDF would be 1.5M (Louisville) + 750k (Lexington) + 2.1M (Cinci) + 2.2M (Indy) plus whatever is in between am sure gets to 7M catchment for SDF. Add an additional 45 mins and you pick up 2M (Nashville) and 2.2M (Columbus) that gets the catchment closer to 12M.

Part of the SDF challenge is all those cities have airports with varying degrees of air service"

gsg013 · Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:11 pm

If you look at a number of December and November dates have multiple 757-200 BNA-ATL... I believe they are doing this to come back at NW for entering the market.

Look at 12/6 for example:
5x: 757-200
5x MD-88

deltal1011man · Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:33 pm

cessna2 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Pilots confirmed there's an AE that puts Delta's first CSeries base at NYC. That's not to say that they won't get to LAX (and need to come back), but LAX isn't going to be the focus of CSeries departures.

The plan is to open up NYC first. After 15 CS100's are delivered, the plan is to open up LAX. Most of the 717's will return back to the east and the CS100's will takeover the majority of west coast 717 routes. Of course all this is subject to change.

right now this sounds like the likely route but there has been talk of both LAX/NYC CS bases on the first AE.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Pilots confirmed there's an AE that puts Delta's first CSeries base at NYC. That's not to say that they won't get to LAX (and need to come back), but LAX isn't going to be the focus of CSeries departures.

if LAX isn't opened with NYC on the first AE it will be opened shortly after as cessna2 pointed out.

I'd also bet on a MSP 717 base once LAX 717 closes.

gsg013 wrote:
Does anyone think the C-Series could take over the ATL-EYW routes? Think its in similar specs as the 737-700. Also relatively short flight with many turns a day could be good for initial training.

You wont see many CS flights in Atlanta with first batch of 75. LAX/SEA/NYC and some SLC(probably not enough for a pilot base) flying will see the majority of them. If/when Delta takes the next batch of options then you will see them more in the core hubs, probably replacing the 717 and some 319s with the CS300.

I haven't heard yet who is getting the c-check line for them, MSP or ATL, but one of the maintenance bases will see them some to route them in and out of checks. (but that is 2-3 years down the road that it becomes an issue)
GTF work will be done in ATL.

ilovelamp · Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:54 am

gsg013 wrote:
If you look at a number of December and November dates have multiple 757-200 BNA-ATL... I believe they are doing this to come back at NW for entering the market.

Look at 12/6 for example:
5x: 757-200
5x MD-88

The 757s start just a couple weeks after SWA enters the market in August.

Midwestindy · Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:12 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"the other point am making is the tag-on flights....they would have multiple connection opps at SDF under the routes (with tag alongs suggested). Why would DL make SDF a focus city? They may never choose to do that...BUT...AA or UA or WN or Jet Blue could choose to do that very thing....and it likely would be successful; DAY operated a very successful little hub for PI back in the day....and the same operation could be created at SDF today....and likely be as successful....caveat is to keep it limited to a focus city with C Series aircraft (or similar). There are opps for limited pt to point with connections via focus cities all across the USA. The big hubs can only get so big.

Why would DL or any other airline try that? No airline is going to add a focus city that is reliant on connections in a small market like SDF. DL doesn't serve their hubs in SLC, LAX, SEA, and JFK, or serve their focus cities in RDU and BOS from SDF, but now DL would be interested in making it a focus city with flights like Louisville to Oklahoma city and Louisville to Norfolk.....c'mon. SDF should work on getting service to all the hub stations, before a focus city comes into the equation.

"You are missing the point. Piedmont had a small hub operation in DAY in the 80's that was very profitable. It flew routes that would be very thin if pt to pt...but...they promoted a no nonsense hub at DAY. It worked until US bought PI and closed it because of proximity to PIT (at the time a fortress hub for US) and IND (then a focus city for US). What I describe is exactly what Jet Blue once talked about when discussing an expansion into fly-over country. DL could do same at SDF...as could WN, UA or AA. CSA for Louisville is 1.5M and it is geographically desirable (why do you think UPS is there?).

For a different perspective...I took the CSA of BNA, IND, CVG, MEM, CMH and SDF and divided it by the annual total passenger counts from 2017. BNA 6.9. IND 3.6. CVG 3.5 MEM 3.05 CMH 3.05 SDF 2.28
SDF has ZERO connecting traffic. BNA has substantial connecting traffic from WN. IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN. CVG is still considered a hub for DL and a focus for F9. MEM is not a hub or focus city. CMH has some WN "focus". I submit that a score > 3.05 could indicate presence of meaningful connecting traffic and below 3 could indicate under-served.

You are oversimplifying it dramatically, airports have different pax counts for a number of different reasons, and population has a very small influence.

I suggest you look at airports like XNA and LOS as to why population has little to no affect on air service.

SDF isn't "underserved," it just doesn't have the amount of corporate travel that cities like CVG, IND, CMH, and BNA do, so there is no reason for an airline (other than someone like J1 or G4) to build up a hub/focus city there

DL747400 · Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:15 am

ERJ170 wrote:
.......ORD and DFW have to be near the top of their radar..

According to the March 30th issue of PlaneBusiness, following the recent 'Delta Insights' event in New York, Glen Hauenstein told PBB founder Holly Hegeman that DFW-LGA would be the first DL CSeries route.

Behind a paywall:

http://www.planebusiness.com/banter/201 ... nter.shtml

DeSpringbokke · Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:45 am

My guess is CSeries bases in NYC/LAX/SEA and possibly SLC, although that may be contingent if Delta were to exercise some of the 50 CSeries options. With the move of the 717s out of SLC/LAX/SEA to MSP/ATL/DTW, more 50 seaters can be retired. Looking at Delta's latest investor day presentation, it looks like Delta plans on having ~50 50 seaters by the time the last CSeries plane is delivered to Delta, flying routes that the only viable plane is the 50 seat aircraft. As regards to a M88/90 replacement, you see where the 737-900ER/A321ceo might be too big. With the concentration of the 91 717s in MSP/ATL/DTW, a partial replacement for the M88/90 will indirectly be the 717s. The CSeries will fly routes that will be former 76 seat/717 routes and open up a few new routes such as SEA-DFW/IAH.

MIflyer12 · Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:54 am

deltal1011man wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Pilots confirmed there's an AE that puts Delta's first CSeries base at NYC. That's not to say that they won't get to LAX (and need to come back), but LAX isn't going to be the focus of CSeries departures.

if LAX isn't opened with NYC on the first AE it will be opened shortly after as cessna2 pointed out.

Well, NYC was opened and LAX was not, so stay tuned for the next AE.

HeyHey · Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:21 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:

For a different perspective...I took the CSA of BNA, IND, CVG, MEM, CMH and SDF and divided it by the annual total passenger counts from 2017. BNA 6.9. IND 3.6. CVG 3.5 MEM 3.05 CMH 3.05 SDF 2.28
SDF has ZERO connecting traffic. BNA has substantial connecting traffic from WN. IND has connecting traffic via DL and WN. CVG is still considered a hub for DL and a focus for F9. MEM is not a hub or focus city. CMH has some WN "focus". I submit that a score > 3.05 could indicate presence of meaningful connecting traffic and below 3 could indicate under-served.

As of Q4 2016, BNA's connecting traffic accounted for 8.5% of its total traffic. https://twitter.com/justinmeyerkc/statu ... 61952?s=21 Let's assume that rose all the way to 10% for 2017, then connecting traffic only accounts for ~1.4 million of BNA's 14.1 million total passengers. That leaves BNA with 12.7 million passengers as O&D. That compares to SDF O&D of ~3.4 million.

I am a Kentuckian who has lived in Western Kentucky, Lexington, West Tennessee, Northern Ohio, and now Nashville. Having lived in all of those places, I can tell you how people view their choice airports, and that viewpoint is where SDF loses out. SDF is surrounded on all sides by competing airports that offer more nonstop service. BNA, IND, STL, and CVG are all significantly larger metros/economies by at least 50% at this point, and all provide far more nonstops offers, frequency, and larger aircraft than SDF does. LEX is also nearby and provides further competition to people on the periphery of SDF's catchment area. Those "watershed" areas that distance-wise could go to SDF break in the majority of the cases to BNA, CVG, or IND. For example, Elizabethtown is a decent sized area and is closer to SDF than BNA. However, if someone is wanting to fly to LAX, SEA, or SFO they are going to drive to BNA and take a nonstop. Of course that just leads to more demand for those flights out of BNA and further service enhancements.

I also think there is a degree of dynamism that these other metros have in comparison to Louisville. BNA, IND, CVG, and STL all simply have more air travel per capita than Louisville. BNA has a significant tourism component and also has the entertainment and music industries which drive a lot of the west cost and northeast demand. STL and CVG have a huge corporate presence as well. In terms of corporate presence, Louisville has 4 Fortune 1000 companies while St Louis has 18, Cincy has 13, Nashville has 11, and Indy has 9. Population alone doesn't drive air travel patterns.

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