Norwegian's next long-haul targets

TC957 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:11 pm

....NRT, PVG, BJS, PHL and a Middle East service from LGW.
This from their CEO on the eve of their new EZE service.
https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/news/phil ... 20Bulletin

zeke · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:14 pm

Pretty ambitious for an airline that only has a month or two worth of cash on hand.

PatrickZ80 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:32 pm

They're doing it totally wrong by putting the focus on Gatwick. The APD will kill them. They should focos on growth elsewhere in Europe and minimalise their UK service.

If I were them I'd put up long haul bases in Ireland and Belgium, just east and west of the UK, and then add feeder flights to the UK from there. Passengers can self-transfer at those bases to avoid the APD, making you the cheapest TATL.

Just compare Norwegian TATL fares out of Gatwick and out of Oslo/Stockholm/Copenhagen/Barcelona/etc. Gatwick is always the most expensive by far, all due to the APD. Why grow there? As I said before, a very stupid move by Norwegian.

787fan8 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:37 pm

Uh oh. The article says they're considering DTW. Cue the notorious fanboys in 3..2..1.

On the other hand, I'm glad that PHL is in the running. More options among foreign carriers at PHL would be really great to see.

TC957 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:45 pm

Well, it looks like Bjorn Kjos disagrees with you on that. The APD isn't all what the higher fares ex-LGW are - clearly then the yields are better if they can command higher fares. Besides, unless a transfer flight is on a separate booking, the APD will still be to the end destination. Don't think many from the UK will backtrack to Scandinavia to go TATL. However, I can see that idea working for Asian services.

flymco753 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:48 pm

787fan8 wrote:
Uh oh. The article says they're considering DTW. Cue the notorious fanboys in 3..2..1.

sevenair · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:55 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
They're doing it totally wrong by putting the focus on Gatwick. The APD will kill them. They should focos on growth elsewhere in Europe and minimalise their UK service.

If I were them I'd put up long haul bases in Ireland and Belgium, just east and west of the UK, and then add feeder flights to the UK from there. Passengers can self-transfer at those bases to avoid the APD, making you the cheapest TATL.

Just compare Norwegian TATL fares out of Gatwick and out of Oslo/Stockholm/Copenhagen/Barcelona/etc. Gatwick is always the most expensive by far, all due to the APD. Why grow there? As I said before, a very stupid move by Norwegian.

They seem to add more to the UK than any other country. They must see something in the UK market. They're already offering transfers and self-transfers 'plus' with Gatwick Connects.

Around half of the easyJet fleet are in the UK, around a quarter of the Ryanair fleet are in the UK. UK airports have continued to grow despite the APD. easyJet and Ryanair have continued to grow and add units to the UK despite APD and Wizzair operate a massive London operation and will add units to their new LTN base. Primera is adding a UK TATL services. The world's longest flight will soon be to/from London.

The airlines seem to see potential in the UK.

ADrum23 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:58 pm

Still nothing on DFW or IAH? That is surprising

AAvgeek744 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:23 pm

zeke wrote:
Pretty ambitious for an airline that only has a month or two worth of cash on hand.

Absolutely. They are expanding way to quick. It's quite likely they are losing money on quite a few of their long haul cities that just don't make sense.

flymco753 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:29 pm

Perhaps they could tackle MAN next and do key US markets like NYC and MCO?

User001 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:55 pm

I doubt they will come to MAN. Had the chance with the B737 max but seems the long haul focus in the U.K. is LGW. I d t even think EDI will last much longer either.

nordikcam · Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:07 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Pretty ambitious for an airline that only has a month or two worth of cash on hand.

Absolutely. They are expanding way to quick. It's quite likely they are losing money on quite a few of their long haul cities that just don't make sense.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... al-results

CrawleyBen · Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:10 pm

Be interesting to see how this all pans out in the medium-long term. The long haul flights they currently operate always tend to have sizeable loads on them from what I've seen when I'm at work at Gatwick. Most Passengers & colleagues who have travelled with Norwegian all speak very highly of the airline, so I don't honestly believe they will be going away anytime soon.

More routes is great news for passengers and the airport itself. I wonder if BA will respond with any new routes from Gatwick to try and counter Norwegian?

Cheers

Ben

ShinyAndChrome · Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:17 pm

CrawleyBen wrote:
Be interesting to see how this all pans out in the medium-long term. The long haul flights they currently operate always tend to have sizeable loads on them from what I've seen when I'm at work at Gatwick. Most Passengers & colleagues who have travelled with Norwegian all speak very highly of the airline, so I don't honestly believe they will be going away anytime soon.

More routes is great news for passengers and the airport itself. I wonder if BA will respond with any new routes from Gatwick to try and counter Norwegian?

Cheers

Ben

Level's performance in BCN will be instructive, I think. If that platform works well there and IAG starts feeling pressure in the UK, then they have a viable option out of the gate.

klm617 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:20 pm

787fan8 wrote:
Uh oh. The article says they're considering DTW. Cue the notorious fanboys in 3..2..1.

On the other hand, I'm glad that PHL is in the running. More options among foreign carriers at PHL would be really great to see.

So that two airlines targeting Detroit now Norwegian and Aer Lingus let's see how committed the airport authority is to landing these airlines to compete against Delta

theobcman · Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:43 pm

The LON > BKK route is very competitive but I think DY could squeeze in there also !

Jerry123 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:51 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
They're doing it totally wrong by putting the focus on Gatwick. The APD will kill them. They should focos on growth elsewhere in Europe and minimalise their UK service.

If I were them I'd put up long haul bases in Ireland and Belgium, just east and west of the UK, and then add feeder flights to the UK from there. Passengers can self-transfer at those bases to avoid the APD, making you the cheapest TATL.

Just compare Norwegian TATL fares out of Gatwick and out of Oslo/Stockholm/Copenhagen/Barcelona/etc. Gatwick is always the most expensive by far, all due to the APD. Why grow there? As I said before, a very stupid move by Norwegian.

Because it's London one of the biggest cities in the world and one of the biggest tourist destinations as well and why would people connect using Norwegian to get to London when they could go direct.

PatrickZ80 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:45 pm

Jerry123 wrote:
Because it's London one of the biggest cities in the world and one of the biggest tourist destinations as well and why would people connect using Norwegian to get to London when they could go direct.

Why? Because it's cheaper, and not just a little bit but a whole lot. People that fly Norwegian are price sensitive, so if they can save a few bucks by connecting they will.

leghorn · Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:48 pm

According to flightconnections.com Stuttgart airport has no flights to New York. It is a wealthy large city and I doubt the residents want to take a train or car to Frankfurt or Munich.

khowaga · Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:50 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Still nothing on DFW or IAH? That is surprising

I doubt any Europe-based LCCs will look at DFW until the FI/WW bloodbath has settled itself out. IAH, on the other hand, would be worth a shot. It's a premium-heavy market for sure, but surely it's big enough for at least one LCC, right?

SCQ83 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:52 pm

ME destination will be Dubai I guess?

Norwegian already flies to DXB from Scandinavia.

PatrickZ80 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:03 pm

leghorn wrote:
According to flightconnections.com Stuttgart airport has no flights to New York. It is a wealthy large city and I doubt the residents want to take a train or car to Frankfurt or Munich.

No direct flights indeed, but plenty of one-stop opportunities. No need to drive to another airport, just transfer at another airport.

lightsaber · Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:08 pm

zeke wrote:
Pretty ambitious for an airline that only has a month or two worth of cash on hand.

https://www.investing.com/equities/norw ... -cash-flow

As I read the cash flow analysis, the airline is generating cash. The issue is in this market, competing against Chinese banks, aircraft leasing down payments and reserves are far less than historical norms. With all the financing available, purchase of aircraft, by what people who should know, are happening at what was old lease down payments

Because of this, the leasing arm needs far more cash.
Those same Chinese financial companies are willing to buy the leasing arm for a profit.

The issue isn't the airline, it is the leasing arm. MoL attempts to retain pilots aside.

Lightsaber

Egerton · Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:21 pm

The top people at Norwegian seem to be delusional. They seem to be operating in a dream world, digging deeper and deeper into the mire. Shareholders will loose everything, poor lambs. The banks can look after themselves. But the ordinary creditors? In the UK, trading whilst insolvent (i.e. unable meet financial obligations when they fall due) can mean prison. And rightly so. Better for the top people to cease digging and call it a day, by inviting their main bank to call in insolvency practitioners.

leghorn · Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:24 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
leghorn wrote:
According to flightconnections.com Stuttgart airport has no flights to New York. It is a wealthy large city and I doubt the residents want to take a train or car to Frankfurt or Munich.

No direct flights indeed, but plenty of one-stop opportunities. No need to drive to another airport, just transfer at another airport.

No thanks. A narrowbody should be able to make it to New York direct without inconveniencing all those passengers who can afford to pay for a direct connection.

PatrickZ80 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The issue isn't the airline, it is the leasing arm. MoL attempts to retain pilots aside.

Speaking of Michael o'Leary, I wouldn't be surprised if he was just waiting for Norwegian to go belly-up and then acquire it for cheap. Sooner or later that's going to happen anyway, Norwegian will run out of cash and then who will buy it? My money is on Ryanair.

Years ago, when Ryanair and Norwegian were still friendly with each other, Ryanair announced they no longer had plans for a long haul devision. Instead they would be feeding for Norwegian. That never happened and relations between the two of them got worse when Norwegian started 'stealing' Ryanair pilots and made a feeder agreement with EasyJet.

Now that Norwegian is running out of cash and Ryanair has plenty of cash I think it's a logical step for Ryanair to place a bid on Norwegian. Then they finally got their long haul division with a reasonable size fleet (which was always a problem when Ryanair still had plans for it) and the Norwegian 737s can be perfectly integrated into Ryanair.

PatrickZ80 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:39 pm

leghorn wrote:
No thanks. A narrowbody should be able to make it to New York direct without inconveniencing all those passengers who can afford to pay for a direct connection.

They can do so on plenty of other airlines. You're just not competitive when you're offering the same as everyone else.

CrawleyBen · Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:59 pm

[threeid][/threeid]

ADrum23 wrote:
Still nothing on DFW or IAH? That is surprising

Washington (IAD) or Baltimore (BWI) have been mentioned as possible destinations in 2019 with A321 LR aircraft so it's been reported elsewhere recently.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... et-445441/

Ben

ADrum23 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:40 pm

CrawleyBen wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
ADrum23 wrote:
Still nothing on DFW or IAH? That is surprising

Washington (IAD) or Baltimore (BWI) have been mentioned as possible destinations in 2019 with A321 LR aircraft so it's been reported elsewhere recently.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... et-445441/

Ben

What? That article does not mention DFW or IAH.

ADrum23 · Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:42 pm

khowaga wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Still nothing on DFW or IAH? That is surprising

I doubt any Europe-based LCCs will look at DFW until the FI/WW bloodbath has settled itself out. IAH, on the other hand, would be worth a shot. It's a premium-heavy market for sure, but surely it's big enough for at least one LCC, right?

True about DFW, though DY launching DFW-LGW would be nice to break up the AA/BA monopoly on London routes.

chrisp390 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:46 am

How will PHL work for them when DL could not even make it work? AA will not let them succeed in PHL-LGW.

xwb777 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:10 am

I read that they are looking at Jordan, Kuwait and Pakistan.

acentauri · Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:10 am

chrisp390 wrote:
How will PHL work for them when DL could not even make it work? AA will not let them succeed in PHL-LGW.

DL never flew PHL-LGW. Regarding PHL-LHR; IMO (and many others), DL never had any intention of making PHL-LHR a viable network route. They just wanted the slot pair from the EU mandated AA-US merger requirement to transfer a PHL-LHR route to a non-OW carrier for 3 years.

Cunard · Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:21 am

xwb777 wrote:
I read that they are looking at Jordan, Kuwait and Pakistan.

Honestly where did you actually read that and do you have a link or source as I find those destinations highly unlikely and regardless of what you have supposed to have read if you believe otherwise you need to get a reality check!

slcdeltarumd11 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:47 am

zeke wrote:
Pretty ambitious for an airline that only has a month or two worth of cash on hand.

To be fair A.net has been saying Norweigan would be out of business for years now. They have really beaten the odds, why couldn't they Continue to??

af773atmsp · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:13 am

Would be nice to see them at MSP even if there isn't non-stop service to OSL, CPH, and/or ARN. Out of all the TATL LCCs I'd choose DY.

parapente · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:21 am

Well they have already bought/leased the aircraft so they have no choice but to make that sunk money work for them.
I have no idea whether they will go under,a shame (and terrible management) if they do.
Ryanair always said it was the cost of aircraft that stopped them going LH.We shall see I guess.
If they did come up for sale/merger would EasyJet sit in the wings passively?

fiestyemus · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:36 am

Cunard wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
I read that they are looking at Jordan, Kuwait and Pakistan.

Honestly where did you actually read that and do you have a link or source as I find those destinations highly unlikely and regardless of what you have supposed to have read if you believe otherwise you need to get a reality check!

This is something I have heard about as well. Refer here (as one example) - https://thepointsguy.com/2018/02/norweg ... 0152526321

xwb777 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:46 am

Cunard wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
I read that they are looking at Jordan, Kuwait and Pakistan.

Honestly where did you actually read that and do you have a link or source as I find those destinations highly unlikely and regardless of what you have supposed to have read if you believe otherwise you need to get a reality check!

I think you can search google for the topics you are searching for instead of throwing out your useless words!

"In the Middle East, though, Norwegian would face three behemoths, the Gulf carriers collectively known as the ME3: Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad Airways. Kjos isn’t apparently too fazed: “There is room for everyone, especially given we are a low-fare airline.”

and

"“While [London] Gatwick is full, we see potential in connecting secondary cities, which are perfectly suited to receive the A321LR, and cheaper for us to operate in and out of,” he said. So, East Midlands to Islamabad, maybe, or Birmingham to Quetta? Kjos didn’t say, but the new Airbus single-aisle plane . makes those possible"

source: https://thepointsguy.com/2018/02/norweg ... ddle-east/

LAX772LR · Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:07 am

chrisp390 wrote:
How will PHL work for them when DL could not even make it work? AA will not let them succeed in PHL-LGW.

Market differentiation, I'd imagine.

Different gateway , different clientele target, ULCC cost basis (for whatever that's worth), etc.

grjplanes · Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:35 am

CrawleyBen wrote:
Be interesting to see how this all pans out in the medium-long term. The long haul flights they currently operate always tend to have sizeable loads on them from what I've seen when I'm at work at Gatwick. Most Passengers & colleagues who have travelled with Norwegian all speak very highly of the airline, so I don't honestly believe they will be going away anytime soon.

More routes is great news for passengers and the airport itself. I wonder if BA will respond with any new routes from Gatwick to try and counter Norwegian?

Cheers

Ben

Could this be partly what happened with Norwegian's CPT plans...for a few years they've been talking about CPT and Southern Africa etc...but lately very quiet about that...did BA actually counter this one before DY could launch it, to protect their good share of the market they have to CPT...and then MT just jumped on the bus also.

TC957 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:28 am

The A321LR will be a game changer in the mid-haul LCC market. We'll have regular flights to new destinations that would have been laughed at just a few years ago. Good on DY to exploit these opportunities the 321LR will bring.

LPSHobby · Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:16 pm

and nothing about Brazil? They are performing yet LGW_EZE, why not GRU or GIG?

CrawleyBen · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:04 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
CrawleyBen wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
ADrum23 wrote:
Still nothing on DFW or IAH? That is surprising

Washington (IAD) or Baltimore (BWI) have been mentioned as possible destinations in 2019 with A321 LR aircraft so it's been reported elsewhere recently.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... et-445441/

Ben

What? That article does not mention DFW or IAH.

I apologise for posting the wrong information, I hold my hands up to that one, my bad.

Cheers

Ben

Arion640 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:25 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
ME destination will be Dubai I guess?

Norwegian already flies to DXB from Scandinavia.

Dubai would be a likley choice. I would not be surprised if they selected DWC in the future like TUI does for their handful of flights to Dubai.

I don't think AUH would be totally out of the way. Certainly more to do in Dubai though.

lavalampluva · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:34 pm

af773atmsp wrote:
Would be nice to see them at MSP even if there isn't non-stop service to OSL, CPH, and/or ARN. Out of all the TATL LCCs I'd choose DY.

I just can't see a A321 flying non-stop from LGW to MSP. It would be making fuel stops on the westbound flight just about every time. Maybe with a larger aircraft with more range.

PatrickZ80 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:38 pm

grjplanes wrote:
Could this be partly what happened with Norwegian's CPT plans...for a few years they've been talking about CPT and Southern Africa etc...but lately very quiet about that...did BA actually counter this one before DY could launch it, to protect their good share of the market they have to CPT...and then MT just jumped on the bus also.

They could still launch Cape Town, but it would be foolish to launch it from Gatwick. Far too much competition. But Copenhagen - Cape Town is completely unserved for example, so that would be an idea. Similar to Bangkok, there's a reason Norwegian only flies to Bangkok from their Scandinavian hubs and not from Gatwick. The competition from Gatwick is far too big, but from Scandinavia they got a lot less competition. Besides, still lots of British take these flights with a feeder flight from the UK to Scandinavia. When I flew them to Bangkok from Stockholm I sat next to a girl from London, she flew Gatwick - Stockholm - Bangkok.

Cunard · Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:20 am

xwb777 wrote:
Cunard wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
I read that they are looking at Jordan, Kuwait and Pakistan.

Honestly where did you actually read that and do you have a link or source as I find those destinations highly unlikely and regardless of what you have supposed to have read if you believe otherwise you need to get a reality check!

I think you can search google for the topics you are searching for instead of throwing out your useless words!

"In the Middle East, though, Norwegian would face three behemoths, the Gulf carriers collectively known as the ME3: Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad Airways. Kjos isn’t apparently too fazed: “There is room for everyone, especially given we are a low-fare airline.”

and

"“While [London] Gatwick is full, we see potential in connecting secondary cities, which are perfectly suited to receive the A321LR, and cheaper for us to operate in and out of,” he said. So, East Midlands to Islamabad, maybe, or Birmingham to Quetta? Kjos didn’t say, but the new Airbus single-aisle plane . makes those possible"

source: https://thepointsguy.com/2018/02/norweg ... ddle-east/

I did read the statement made by Norwegian again and saw that Jordan and Kuwait was mentioned but I stand by what I wrote before I just can't see them operating to either of those countries as there are bigger markets to fly to before we see them flying to either of those two countries.

I think they are just two random countries that Norwegian decided to mention in their press release, yes I can appreciate Jordan to a certain extent but honestly Kuwait WHY!

Let's be serious here in five years time the only reason we will be discussing Norwegian on these forums is the country not the airline.

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