Kentucky Aviation Thread 2018

SumChristianus · Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:31 pm

Kentucky seems to have been left out of Airliners for a while, the only Kentucky thread I could find was 12 years old...
For a market of its size, though, I think it deserves its own thread.
Sure, its airports are on the smaller side for passenger traffic, but with a growing UPS operation (SDF-DXB starting!), F9 returning, and potential for expansion from both F9 and G4, SDF has happenings. LEX I don't know much about, but overall Kentucky sees lots of ATL and DL capacity.
What do you think about the future of commercial aviation in Kentucky?
F9 expansion?
More mainline service by AA and DL?
SDF-LAX on G4?
Does growth at CVG, BNA, and IND reduce potential for Kentucky airports?
NK?
Air Canada?

ADrum23 · Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:38 pm

Well, CVG is technically in Kentucky, and it's been getting a lot of attention recently.

But outside of that, Kentucky is a small state. I almost never hear anything about what is going on at SDF, which has to be the second largest in the state after CVG.

SumChristianus · Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:44 pm

F9 to DEN seems to be the only route change for SDF listed, as long as they last at SDF.
And yes, CVG seems covered by Rest of Ohio, SDF for a city of three million passengers, seems to get little attention here.
A causal observer to Airliners might think DTW, IND, PHX, CVG, and CLE are the world's busiest airports....! :smile:

TYSflyer · Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:11 pm

I think one of the likely next legacy routes for SDF would be DL on SDF-BOS. I think SDF is right on the edge of the E175's max range for west coast flights but maybe AS to SEA on an E175 if it can do the return flight.

How many commercial airports are in the state? I guess pikeville lost their service not that long ago

Randy41018 · Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:18 pm

TYSflyer wrote:
I think one of the likely next legacy routes for SDF would be DL on SDF-BOS. I think SDF is right on the edge of the E175's max range for west coast flights but maybe AS to SEA on an E175 if it can do the return flight.

How many commercial airports are in the state? I guess pikeville lost their service not that long ago

There are 5 commercial airports in KY. In order by number of pax: CVG, SDF, LEX, OWB, PAH

jplatts · Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:29 pm

TYSflyer wrote:
I think one of the likely next legacy routes for SDF would be DL on SDF-BOS. I think SDF is right on the edge of the E175's max range for west coast flights but maybe AS to SEA on an E175 if it can do the return flight.

How many commercial airports are in the state? I guess pikeville lost their service not that long ago

WN could possibly add SDF-BOS nonstop service, and B6 could also add SDF-BOS nonstop service if it enters SDF.

ibthebigd · Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:53 pm

I think there are incentives for SDF-BOS/LAX DL would be the most logical choice for both. Might have to wait for the CS100 for LAX.

I would like to see LEX get DEN on UA

I wonder if OWB will keep G4 i was surprised it stayed when they cut several cities close to other stations.

ibthebigd · Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:52 pm

Allegiant added LEX-VPS

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skyharborshome · Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:37 pm

Did BWG lose the Pilatus flights to Florida?

SkyVoice · Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:50 am

I am VERY GLAD to see this thread ! ! ! I was born & raised in Richmond, a lifelong AvGeek. I hope that this thread reaches the kind of critical mass necessary to keep going. For those of you interested in the history of airline service to Bowling Green (BWG), here are a couple of links:
http://www.bgdailynews.com/news/causey- ... l?mode=jqm
http://home.insightbb.com/~bglandmark/l ... rFleet.htm

Bluegrass60 · Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:36 am

Nice to see the Ky Thread. There is a lot of history with Ky airports that is worth discussing because history can repeat itself.

Did you know that SDF was an EAL Focus City for many years ending in the early 70's when they transferred that focus to CLT. Reason...no parallel runways and Ky would not allow x-county/x-state banking....so off went EAL to NC which was about to boom because of banking.

PI seriously considered SDF for the hub they eventually established in DAY....SDF lost because no parallel runways.

AA seriously considered SDF for the hub that went to BNA...SDF lost because no parallel runways

DL considered SDF for the hub that eventually went to CVG...SDF lost because no parallel runways

So....finally in the late 80's....SDF embarked on a plan to develop parallel runways. Fortunately they did.....or UPS may have moved Worldport to BNA.

Fast forward to 2018 and SDF is doing well....Metro Louisville is growing...which airline will take notice? JetBlue had made noise about a hub in the central part of the country....why not recreate the PI DAY hub at SDF?

jplatts · Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:15 pm

WN could add SDF-HOU nonstop service in order to better connect SDF to AUS, DAL, SAT, and international destinations. HOU is a much better connecting point than MDW is for connections to AUS and SAT from SDF, and HOU is a slightly better connecting point than MDW is for connections to DAL from SDF.

ibthebigd · Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:18 pm

jplatts wrote:
WN could add SDF-HOU nonstop service in order to better connect SDF to AUS, DAL, SAT, and international destinations. HOU is a much better connecting point than MDW is for connections to AUS and SAT from SDF, and HOU is a slightly better connecting point than MDW is for connections to DAL from SDF.

I would be happy if they brought STL back.

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mtnwest1979 · Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:51 am

skyharborshome wrote:
Did BWG lose the Pilatus flights to Florida?

Well they had Jetstream 41 to ATL, and I guess they tried FL panhandle after that. I would assume it is gone since it isn't on their site anymore. Certainly wasted money by the local area if you ask me. I was kind of expecting it to be a decent enough market (ATL) to last at least 6 months lol.

Bluegrass60 · Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:44 pm

jplatts wrote:
WN could add SDF-HOU nonstop service in order to better connect SDF to AUS, DAL, SAT, and international destinations. HOU is a much better connecting point than MDW is for connections to AUS and SAT from SDF, and HOU is a slightly better connecting point than MDW is for connections to DAL from SDF.

WN today announced SDF-HOU. Would LUV to see WN reinstate SDF-STL and SDF-BHM. MKE, DCA,RDU, CHS and BOS would also be welcomed!

SumChristianus · Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:05 pm

SDF-MSP mainline on a 717 is being operated by Delta this summer.
LEX looks to be down to only one daily mainline on its ATL service 3x CR7, 3x CR9, 1x 717.
All as of June 11th.

ibthebigd · Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:32 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
SDF-MSP mainline on a 717 is being operated by Delta this summer.
LEX looks to be down to only one daily mainline on its ATL service 3x CR7, 3x CR9, 1x 717.
All as of June 11th.

The LEX ATL is disappointing

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SumChristianus · Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:44 am

ibthebigd wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
SDF-MSP mainline on a 717 is being operated by Delta this summer.
LEX looks to be down to only one daily mainline on its ATL service 3x CR7, 3x CR9, 1x 717.
All as of June 11th.
The LEX ATL is disappointing

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CVG growth is probably pulling passengers from nearby airports like LEX.

jasoncrh · Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:02 am

in addition to SDF - HOU on Southwest, Allegiant today announced SDF - JAX summer service, in addition to recently-announced SDF - MYR summer service. Love it.

jeffry747 · Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:04 am

With all of the UPS widebody action, SDF is a potential spotters heaven.

UALEX · Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:24 am

Really glad to see this thread and hope to see some good feedback and conversation.

LEX - Fly week on UA typically to ORD, and occasionally to IAH, EWR. Agree would love to see DEN - but not on a RJ145 like SDF-DEN. Just recently - GoJets has been operating CRJ700 out of LEX to ORD which has been a nice upgrade to the usual RJ145/CRJ200. However, I did notice in the coming months UA will operate under Air Wisconsin, Express Jet/SkyWest on mixture of CRJ200/RJ145 and no GoJets CRJ700. I assume just due to operational/demand. The daily LEX to IAH/EWR is on the RJ145 still. Any insight would be great.

Recently - LEX has been packed for morning departures and UA flights running full loads. I am assuming the same for AA/DL as well. Runway improvements should almost be finished from what I can tell as well as the additional parking stands to use for private jets for Keeneland and horse sales. Also, for people in the LEX area, flight pricing has been very comparable to SDF, and almost always LEX/SDF are always lower than flying out of CVG on legacy carriers.

CVG also is gearing up for Amazon to add additional facility at the airport which is great news since Delta has dwindled down to nothing. It really is sad to see when flying into CVG to have such nice facilities but feels as if you're in a ghost town.

Springs1816 · Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:21 pm

Would love to see DEN from LEX. I think it will come eventually. Just not sure when. I think we could see a few more adds from G4 down the road to somewhere like AZA or LAS. Hoping and thinking the F9 seasonal from SDF to DEN will go yearly if things go well.

Going to Dallas in May for work and the cheapest for LEX was $611 roundtrip and connecting in ORD. Yuck. CVG was sub $300. Even accounting for the drive I will probably do CVG because of price and I can do it direct. I almost never go out of LEX except for work because they are paying. Personally I'm seeing high fares from LEX/SDF and lower fares from CVG. Used to be the opposite with SDF and CVG but not anymore. Depends on the airline I guess.

I will say LEX is a nice and convenient airport if you can swing it.

cvgComair · Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:38 pm

UALEX wrote:
Also, for people in the LEX area, flight pricing has been very comparable to SDF, and almost always LEX/SDF are always lower than flying out of CVG on legacy carriers.

That really isn't the case anymore, CVG now ranks much lower than its surrounding airports:
CVG ranked #83 – average fare $301
IND ranked #61 – average fare $335
CMH ranked #45 – average fare $353
SDF ranked #21 – average fare $395
DAY ranked #20 – average fare $400
LEX ranked #10 – average fare $419

Even on legacy carriers, it seems that the airfares are still lower. For example, based on lowest bookable legacy one-way airfare:
CVG-ORD: $49 (UA/DL)
SDF-ORD: $84 (UA)
LEX-ORD: $181 (UA)

CVG-MCO: $84 (DL)
SDF-MCO: $95 (AA)
LEX-MCO: $224 (AA)

CVG-DFW: $69 (DL/AA)
SDF-DFW: $176 (DL/UA/AA)
LEX-DFW: $268 (AA)

SDF looks to be pretty competitive to CVG as far as legacy pricing goes, but it seems that LEX has a pretty good premium on most routes. LEX is in a similar position to DAY, with only 1 LCC, so the US3 have little competition and prices go up. LEX really needs NK or F9 to come in and put more pressure on the legacies to lower prices.

Bluegrass60 · Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:34 pm

Does a market exist for intra-state flights in Ky? In the past, SDF was connected to Paducah, Owensboro, Bowling Green, London-Corbin, CVG, LEX and Ashland/Huntington.

On a related but different subject....it would be interesting to see an airline reinstate direct flying like it used to be. In the rush to fly nonstop only to hubs....the carriers have made it difficult to fly short haul routes....as a frequent traveler....just the past few months....would have used SDF-IND-CLE-CMH-SDF a number of times...instead drove portions and flew portions.

You would have to pull up timetables from the 60's and 70's to get an idea of the direct flights flown. I think it is an area that should be explored again.

These type direct flights could work well if the stops/turns were quick and also allowed for some connections at the stops...online or intraline....maybe not allow baggage to connect to help keep turns quick; focus on the biz traveler who can live out of a carry-on for a day or 2.

ibthebigd · Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:43 am

Jus th saw Knoxville is getting MIA on AA. I wonder if LEX will be next or is it to close to CVG and SDF

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jplatts · Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:48 am

There is still limited competition on nonstop service to MIA/FLL from SDF as AA is currently the only airline to have daily nonstop service to the MIA/FLL market from SDF. While the lack of WN nonstop service to FLL isn't as big of a hole as it once was with G4 now doing less than daily nonstop service to FLL from SDF, WN could add SDF-FLL nonstop service in order to provide better competition on the SDF-MIA/FLL route. SDF is also in a big enough market to support WN nonstop service to FLL as there are a few markets smaller than SDF that already have nonstop service to FLL on WN, including ALB, BUF, BDL, and MSY.

Will WN ever add SDF-FLL nonstop service anytime soon?

adam47150 · Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:38 am

Call me crazy, but wouldn't SDF-FLL be an awesome inagural route for B6 in this market?

jplatts · Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:33 am

adam47150 wrote:
Call me crazy, but wouldn't SDF-FLL be an awesome inagural route for B6 in this market?

I agree that B6 could serve FLL nonstop from SDF if it enters the SDF market.

ibthebigd · Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:12 pm

Wonder who might start LAX

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/m ... 941664002/

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jplatts · Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:56 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
Wonder who might start LAX
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/m ... 941664002/

In addition to the already announced upcoming WN SDF-HOU and SDF-DAL nonstop routes, WN could add SDF-LAX, SDF-OAK, SDF-SAN, SDF-BOS, and SDF-FLL nonstop service.

ibthebigd · Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:32 pm

But WN dropped PHX to once weekly

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jasoncrh · Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:33 pm

Just for the lowest of low January and February season. I bet they'll be back up to daily in March for spring break and then through the summer and fall high seasons...

ibthebigd wrote:
But WN dropped PHX to once weekly

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Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:06 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
Wonder who might start LAX

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/m ... 941664002/

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"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

The point is...I think SDF would be best served (and could best leverage the LAD subsidies) if it could attract a Focus operation...better ensuring the success of new flights to the West Coast and Boston etc.
Which carrier might create a focus at SDF? For selfish reasons would pick DL followed by WN (have lots of miles on those carriers). DL does have a mini hub at CVG and a large operation at IND...but it is taking delivery of new A220s which are the perfect equipment for a market like SDF as they can fly to the West Coast with 100 seats. The Focus operation could be built out like PI's old DAY operation in the 80's.

WN has Focus ops in BNA, STL, MDW, BWI and lesser degree IND. If WN has a I-65 strategy (build up cities along I-65)...it could work.

AA/UA - maybe they could use a reliever operation for their ORD hubs? UA has nothing in the Southeast. AA has CLT and MIA.

JetBlue? A new airline being developed by JetBlue's founder? Cabotage rights? UPS combi aircraft? Hopefully not Allegiant or Frontier or Spirit...let them stick to their knitting as Ultra LCCs.

Midwestindy · Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:23 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
Wonder who might start LAX

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/m ... 941664002/

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"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

The point is...I think SDF would be best served (and could best leverage the LAD subsidies) if it could attract a Focus operation...better ensuring the success of new flights to the West Coast and Boston etc.
Which carrier might create a focus at SDF? For selfish reasons would pick DL followed by WN (have lots of miles on those carriers). DL does have a mini hub at CVG and a large operation at IND...but it is taking delivery of new A220s which are the perfect equipment for a market like SDF as they can fly to the West Coast with 100 seats. The Focus operation could be built out like PI's old DAY operation in the 80's.

WN has Focus ops in BNA, STL, MDW, BWI and lesser degree IND. If WN has a I-65 strategy (build up cities along I-65)...it could work.

AA/UA - maybe they could use a reliever operation for their ORD hubs? UA has nothing in the Southeast. AA has CLT and MIA.

JetBlue? A new airline being developed by JetBlue's founder? Cabotage rights? UPS combi aircraft? Hopefully not Allegiant or Frontier or Spirit...let them stick to their knitting as Ultra LCCs.

SDF is too small, in terms of Originating passengers in Q1 2018 they were in the same ballpark as RNO and ALB with around 215,000 Originating passengers according to the DOT. https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

You can't really compare SDF with the other midwest cities you listed above.
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

jasoncrh · Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:29 pm

While I love the enthusiasm, I really do not think that SDF will be in the running for any focus-style operation any time soon. While there are connections available at some of those other focus cities that are mentioned, those airlines have them mainly to target and serve the local market. SDF simply does not have the traffic to support that. Those focus cities live and die by the strength of the local market, not by any cheap transit traffic they happen to connect.

With that in mind, though, I really think SDF should focus on BOS rather than LA. While glamorous, LA is simply a very long distance that requires a lot of aircraft time and good fares to support it. Louisville simply does not have that.

SDF should target either DL for BOS, or B6. SDF is, I think, one of the largest unserved BOS markets. ABQ is larger I think, but it's farther and requires signifcantly more aircraft time. I think SDF has the next largest unserved market size. And a healthy fare. So, either Delta, which is looking to expand in Boston. Or B6. If it were B6, I'd think they could do some combination of both BOS and FLL flying from SDF. Maybe MCO too. Thoughts?

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
Wonder who might start LAX

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/m ... 941664002/

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

The point is...I think SDF would be best served (and could best leverage the LAD subsidies) if it could attract a Focus operation...better ensuring the success of new flights to the West Coast and Boston etc.
Which carrier might create a focus at SDF? For selfish reasons would pick DL followed by WN (have lots of miles on those carriers). DL does have a mini hub at CVG and a large operation at IND...but it is taking delivery of new A220s which are the perfect equipment for a market like SDF as they can fly to the West Coast with 100 seats. The Focus operation could be built out like PI's old DAY operation in the 80's.

WN has Focus ops in BNA, STL, MDW, BWI and lesser degree IND. If WN has a I-65 strategy (build up cities along I-65)...it could work.

AA/UA - maybe they could use a reliever operation for their ORD hubs? UA has nothing in the Southeast. AA has CLT and MIA.

JetBlue? A new airline being developed by JetBlue's founder? Cabotage rights? UPS combi aircraft? Hopefully not Allegiant or Frontier or Spirit...let them stick to their knitting as Ultra LCCs.

SDF is too small, in terms of Originating passengers in Q1 2018 they were in the same ballpark as RNO and ALB with around 215,000 Originating passengers according to the DOT. https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

You can't really compare SDF with the other midwest cities you listed above.
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

ibthebigd · Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:37 pm

I think the A220 is the only feasible plane to fly SDF-LAX

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jplatts · Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:13 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
With that in mind, though, I really think SDF should focus on BOS rather than LA. While glamorous, LA is simply a very long distance that requires a lot of aircraft time and good fares to support it. Louisville simply does not have that.

SDF should target either DL for BOS, or B6. SDF is, I think, one of the largest unserved BOS markets. ABQ is larger I think, but it's farther and requires signifcantly more aircraft time. I think SDF has the next largest unserved market size. And a healthy fare. So, either Delta, which is looking to expand in Boston. Or B6. If it were B6, I'd think they could do some combination of both BOS and FLL flying from SDF. Maybe MCO too. Thoughts?

WN could possibly add SDF-BOS nonstop service if DL doesn't add SDF-BOS nonstop service and if B6 doesn't start service out of SDF. WN also already serves BOS nonstop from Midwestern markets such as MCI, STL, MKE, IND, and CMH that aren't currently served by B6.

WN could also add SDF-FLL nonstop service if B6 doesn't start service out of SDF. I previously mentioned that this route could be added by WN, and WN also already serves FLL nonstop from markets that do not have B6 service such as SAT, MCI, STL, MKE, IND, and CMH.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:51 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
Wonder who might start LAX

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/m ... 941664002/

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

The point is...I think SDF would be best served (and could best leverage the LAD subsidies) if it could attract a Focus operation...better ensuring the success of new flights to the West Coast and Boston etc.
Which carrier might create a focus at SDF? For selfish reasons would pick DL followed by WN (have lots of miles on those carriers). DL does have a mini hub at CVG and a large operation at IND...but it is taking delivery of new A220s which are the perfect equipment for a market like SDF as they can fly to the West Coast with 100 seats. The Focus operation could be built out like PI's old DAY operation in the 80's.

WN has Focus ops in BNA, STL, MDW, BWI and lesser degree IND. If WN has a I-65 strategy (build up cities along I-65)...it could work.

AA/UA - maybe they could use a reliever operation for their ORD hubs? UA has nothing in the Southeast. AA has CLT and MIA.

JetBlue? A new airline being developed by JetBlue's founder? Cabotage rights? UPS combi aircraft? Hopefully not Allegiant or Frontier or Spirit...let them stick to their knitting as Ultra LCCs.

SDF is too small, in terms of Originating passengers in Q1 2018 they were in the same ballpark as RNO and ALB with around 215,000 Originating passengers according to the DOT. https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

You can't really compare SDF with the other midwest cities you listed above.
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

"Midwest Indy - how you love your O&D stats to justify all. RNO has CSA of 621k and ABQ CSA is 1.1M SDF CSA is 1.5M. BNA is 2M . CVG is 2.2M IND is 2.4M. Please do not lecture me that CSA population has nothing to do with O&D. Did you ever stop to think that CVG, BNA and IND all have connecting traffic that are included in their O&D numbers? If you don't believe me...ask the airports what the mix of connecting and O&D are. Trust me...the O&D numbers are inflated for BNA and CVG and lesser extent IND. There is zero inflation for SDF caused by connecting traffic.

Also, SDF O&D numbers are depressed by the fact that CVG and IND and BNA provide options to part of SDF CSA and those pax will make trek to CVG or IND or BNA because they prefer a nonstop flight. It is not in the interest of CVG or IND or BNA to see SDF improve its own air service...because that will likely decrease passenger counts at their respective airports.....and cause airlines to reduce flight from those airports"

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:02 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
While I love the enthusiasm, I really do not think that SDF will be in the running for any focus-style operation any time soon. While there are connections available at some of those other focus cities that are mentioned, those airlines have them mainly to target and serve the local market. SDF simply does not have the traffic to support that. Those focus cities live and die by the strength of the local market, not by any cheap transit traffic they happen to connect.

With that in mind, though, I really think SDF should focus on BOS rather than LA. While glamorous, LA is simply a very long distance that requires a lot of aircraft time and good fares to support it. Louisville simply does not have that.

SDF should target either DL for BOS, or B6. SDF is, I think, one of the largest unserved BOS markets. ABQ is larger I think, but it's farther and requires signifcantly more aircraft time. I think SDF has the next largest unserved market size. And a healthy fare. So, either Delta, which is looking to expand in Boston. Or B6. If it were B6, I'd think they could do some combination of both BOS and FLL flying from SDF. Maybe MCO too. Thoughts?

"Jason - why would SDF not be considered for focus city type ops? BNA and CVG have considerable connecting traffic (3M-4M at BNA and 1M-2.5M at CVG; IND is 500K-1M). Agree that O&D is important....which is why DL pulled the plug on CVG and why AA pulled the plug on BNA. Cheap transit traffic? Huh? WN would not offer 115 flights out of BNA if not for that "cheap transit" traffic. Same applies to Delta at CVG (to a lesser degree than BNA). DL makes a killing on that cheap transit traffic at ATL. Louisville has raised $4M or so to support efforts to get LAX and BOS....the A220 provides the right economics. For all the supporters of IND, CVG and BNA....SDF air service improvements mean....your growth might slow. "

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

The point is...I think SDF would be best served (and could best leverage the LAD subsidies) if it could attract a Focus operation...better ensuring the success of new flights to the West Coast and Boston etc.
Which carrier might create a focus at SDF? For selfish reasons would pick DL followed by WN (have lots of miles on those carriers). DL does have a mini hub at CVG and a large operation at IND...but it is taking delivery of new A220s which are the perfect equipment for a market like SDF as they can fly to the West Coast with 100 seats. The Focus operation could be built out like PI's old DAY operation in the 80's.

WN has Focus ops in BNA, STL, MDW, BWI and lesser degree IND. If WN has a I-65 strategy (build up cities along I-65)...it could work.

AA/UA - maybe they could use a reliever operation for their ORD hubs? UA has nothing in the Southeast. AA has CLT and MIA.

JetBlue? A new airline being developed by JetBlue's founder? Cabotage rights? UPS combi aircraft? Hopefully not Allegiant or Frontier or Spirit...let them stick to their knitting as Ultra LCCs.

SDF is too small, in terms of Originating passengers in Q1 2018 they were in the same ballpark as RNO and ALB with around 215,000 Originating passengers according to the DOT. https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

You can't really compare SDF with the other midwest cities you listed above.
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

jasoncrh wrote:
While I love the enthusiasm, I really do not think that SDF will be in the running for any focus-style operation any time soon. While there are connections available at some of those other focus cities that are mentioned, those airlines have them mainly to target and serve the local market. SDF simply does not have the traffic to support that. Those focus cities live and die by the strength of the local market, not by any cheap transit traffic they happen to connect.

With that in mind, though, I really think SDF should focus on BOS rather than LA. While glamorous, LA is simply a very long distance that requires a lot of aircraft time and good fares to support it. Louisville simply does not have that.

SDF should target either DL for BOS, or B6. SDF is, I think, one of the largest unserved BOS markets. ABQ is larger I think, but it's farther and requires signifcantly more aircraft time. I think SDF has the next largest unserved market size. And a healthy fare. So, either Delta, which is looking to expand in Boston. Or B6. If it were B6, I'd think they could do some combination of both BOS and FLL flying from SDF. Maybe MCO too. Thoughts?

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

The point is...I think SDF would be best served (and could best leverage the LAD subsidies) if it could attract a Focus operation...better ensuring the success of new flights to the West Coast and Boston etc.
Which carrier might create a focus at SDF? For selfish reasons would pick DL followed by WN (have lots of miles on those carriers). DL does have a mini hub at CVG and a large operation at IND...but it is taking delivery of new A220s which are the perfect equipment for a market like SDF as they can fly to the West Coast with 100 seats. The Focus operation could be built out like PI's old DAY operation in the 80's.

WN has Focus ops in BNA, STL, MDW, BWI and lesser degree IND. If WN has a I-65 strategy (build up cities along I-65)...it could work.

AA/UA - maybe they could use a reliever operation for their ORD hubs? UA has nothing in the Southeast. AA has CLT and MIA.

JetBlue? A new airline being developed by JetBlue's founder? Cabotage rights? UPS combi aircraft? Hopefully not Allegiant or Frontier or Spirit...let them stick to their knitting as Ultra LCCs.

SDF is too small, in terms of Originating passengers in Q1 2018 they were in the same ballpark as RNO and ALB with around 215,000 Originating passengers according to the DOT. https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

You can't really compare SDF with the other midwest cities you listed above.
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

Lexy · Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:10 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

The point is...I think SDF would be best served (and could best leverage the LAD subsidies) if it could attract a Focus operation...better ensuring the success of new flights to the West Coast and Boston etc.
Which carrier might create a focus at SDF? For selfish reasons would pick DL followed by WN (have lots of miles on those carriers). DL does have a mini hub at CVG and a large operation at IND...but it is taking delivery of new A220s which are the perfect equipment for a market like SDF as they can fly to the West Coast with 100 seats. The Focus operation could be built out like PI's old DAY operation in the 80's.

WN has Focus ops in BNA, STL, MDW, BWI and lesser degree IND. If WN has a I-65 strategy (build up cities along I-65)...it could work.

AA/UA - maybe they could use a reliever operation for their ORD hubs? UA has nothing in the Southeast. AA has CLT and MIA.

JetBlue? A new airline being developed by JetBlue's founder? Cabotage rights? UPS combi aircraft? Hopefully not Allegiant or Frontier or Spirit...let them stick to their knitting as Ultra LCCs.

SDF is too small, in terms of Originating passengers in Q1 2018 they were in the same ballpark as RNO and ALB with around 215,000 Originating passengers according to the DOT. https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

You can't really compare SDF with the other midwest cities you listed above.
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

"Midwest Indy - how you love your O&D stats to justify all. RNO has CSA of 621k and ABQ CSA is 1.1M SDF CSA is 1.5M. BNA is 2M . CVG is 2.2M IND is 2.4M. Please do not lecture me that CSA population has nothing to do with O&D. Did you ever stop to think that CVG, BNA and IND all have connecting traffic that are included in their O&D numbers? If you don't believe me...ask the airports what the mix of connecting and O&D are. Trust me...the O&D numbers are inflated for BNA and CVG and lesser extent IND. There is zero inflation for SDF caused by connecting traffic.

Also, SDF O&D numbers are depressed by the fact that CVG and IND and BNA provide options to part of SDF CSA and those pax will make trek to CVG or IND or BNA because they prefer a nonstop flight. It is not in the interest of CVG or IND or BNA to see SDF improve its own air service...because that will likely decrease passenger counts at their respective airports.....and cause airlines to reduce flight from those airports"

I don't think CVG, IND, or BNA really worry about what SDF is doing. All three airports are light years ahead of them. If SDF were to grow, it wouldn't likely be at the expense of those three airports because their base is already established and SDF isn't going to offer anything you can't get at the other three regional airports. BTW, UA and AA don't do reliever airports or focus cities.

Midwestindy · Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:31 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

SDF is too small, in terms of Originating passengers in Q1 2018 they were in the same ballpark as RNO and ALB with around 215,000 Originating passengers according to the DOT. https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

You can't really compare SDF with the other midwest cities you listed above.
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018

"Midwest Indy - how you love your O&D stats to justify all. RNO has CSA of 621k and ABQ CSA is 1.1M SDF CSA is 1.5M. BNA is 2M . CVG is 2.2M IND is 2.4M. Please do not lecture me that CSA population has nothing to do with O&D. Did you ever stop to think that CVG, BNA and IND all have connecting traffic that are included in their O&D numbers? If you don't believe me...ask the airports what the mix of connecting and O&D are. Trust me...the O&D numbers are inflated for BNA and CVG and lesser extent IND. There is zero inflation for SDF caused by connecting traffic.

Also, SDF O&D numbers are depressed by the fact that CVG and IND and BNA provide options to part of SDF CSA and those pax will make trek to CVG or IND or BNA because they prefer a nonstop flight. It is not in the interest of CVG or IND or BNA to see SDF improve its own air service...because that will likely decrease passenger counts at their respective airports.....and cause airlines to reduce flight from those airports"

O&D does not include connections, if it did MIA, SLC, CLT, MDW, e.t.c would have many many many more passengers than what was listed. Connections only make up 4-5% of IND's traffic so the numbers aren't inflated.

If you want to throw GMP in their SDF isn't close: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183 ... tro-areas/
IND: 151.8
CVG: 145.3
BNA: 134.9

SDF: 79.9

If you want to look at size of CSA SDF isn't close: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area
IND: 2,411,086
CVG: 2,238,265
BNA: 2,027,489

SDF: 1,522,112

Compared by pure Originating passenger numbers which don't factor in connections: https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018
https://www.bts.gov/content/fares-airpo ... arter-2018
BNA: 678,140
IND: 629,110
CVG: 517,690

SDF: 213,200

Therefore CVG, IND, and BNA all have service to LAX, SFO, SEA, BOS, SAN, Europe, e.t.c based on their own merit and not principally off the back of passengers from the SDF area.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:23 pm

To all you CVG, BNA, IND cheerleaders: I do not wish any negatives to your airports...my only wish is you accept that some portion of the traffic stats that are published include connecting traffic....that benefits (in order) BNA, CVG and IND.....and also include passengers from the SDF catchment area. I am a FF from SDF and appreciate the facility. I have with zero interest for it to emulate any of your facilities. I would however like to see SDF get additional flights to help it better retain the passengers in its CSA. I know for a fact that SDF catchment has been attracted to each of your airports for many years because:
1) Delta Hub at CVG ...which is still a hub but far smaller than its peak...it was de-hubbed ultimately because lack of enough O&D traffic and the fact it is surrounded by DAY, CMH, LEX, IND, SDF
2) Ultra LCC at CVG...Allegiant, Frontier, WOW have attracted budget flyers from SDF catchment
3) Delta to Paris; Air Canada to Toronto attract from SDF catchment
4) IND attracts from SDF catchment in Indiana portions of CSA...to a much less degree than CVG
5) BNA attracts from SDF catchment in southern/southwestern portions of CSA
6) Delta still utilizes CVG as a hub...large Focus City is probably better definition today
7) BNA is a Focus City for WN...it became a Focus City when AA pulled the plug on its hub. At that time BNA was @ the same size as SDF. Arguments that say SDF can't support a Focus operation ignore the fact that WN decided on a focus op at BNA when it was comparable in size to Louisville....and today Louisville is actually larger than BNA was in 1994 when WN started focus ops.
8) I am sure that CVG, BNA and IND keep tabs on SDF. None are lite years ahead. All of them have histories that include hub or focus ops (CVG with Delta/Comair; BNA with AA and WN; IND with LakeCentral, Allegheny, USAir, American, AirTrans/WN, ATA. SDF was actually a focus city for EA until 1972) SDF's terminal is as nice or better and ancillary services are as nice or better. It is located less than 6 miles from the CBD. SDF is trying to increase its air service to LAX, BOS, MCI, RDU, YYZ, SFO, SEA. It's economy is stronger than ever including a convention/tourism business that is causing headaches to competitors in Cinci, Nashville and Indy. CVG, BNA, IND have all provided $ incentives for various improvements to their own air service....and SDF has raised @$4m itself.
The UPS operations at SDF are far larger than Fedex at IND or DHL/Amazon at CVG.....and that helps keep a lid on PFCs
9) The C-Series...now known as A220....is the perfect aircraft to operate a focus city operation at airports like SDF. To underscore that, the founder of JetBlue, David Neeleman is starting a new airline....currently named Moxy that will focus operations on medium and small hubs.
10) What if UPS decided to revisit combi aircraft?? (Cargo/Passenger....it had 727s configured like that in the 90's)

Jshank83 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:42 pm

If you want them to accept the stats that include connecting traffic then why won't you accept the one that shows a truer demand and does not include connection traffic. That is what the airlines care about. They can put connecting traffic about anywhere but they need the O&D (non connecting traffic) as the base to support it. SDF has less a lot less than the others mentioned. If you have 100 people that want to go somewhere (and in Southwest's case your smallest plane holds 143 people) then you can use connecting traffic to put a route over the hump. If you only have 33 people that want to go somewhere you aren't going to supplement that with connecting traffic so you won't use that city to connect anyone. You can say SDF was the size of BNA when BNA became a focus city but that was years ago. Now you are going against Nashville and other cities at their present sizes not their 2000 sizes. Back then Southwest was looking for new cities to grow as connection points in that part of the country. Now they probably aren't. They inherited some AirTran cities since then and have built up others. If they were so keen on growing SDF they would have done it already. Their numbers have basically been flat since at least 2002.

cvgComair · Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:43 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

Bluegrass60 wrote:
To all you CVG, BNA, IND cheerleaders: I do not wish any negatives to your airports...my only wish is you accept that some portion of the traffic stats that are published include connecting traffic....that benefits (in order) BNA, CVG and IND.....and also include passengers from the SDF catchment area.

But you continue to claim that connections make up a significant share of passengers at these airports... I can't speak for BNA, but IND sees less than 5% of their passengers connect and CVG is less than 10%. DL's average is about 16% connecting at CVG, which equates to roughly 300,000 connecting emplacements out of 2 million total pax carried total. Your "guesstimate" put CVG's connecting passenger enplanments at 1-2 MILLION. That is nearly 5x the actual amount.

I would love to discuss what routes could be added from SDF. However, it is hard to hold discussions when you are throwing out random "guesstimates" that you have made up, meanwhile claiming that the DOT's data is invalid/has errors.

adam47150 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:54 pm

I would love to see B6 enter SDF with flights to BOS and FLL.

Lexy · Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:00 pm

I haven’t seen a single report the Nashville convention business is getting headaches because of Louisville. That’s pure conjecture on your part. The rest of it I can’t help but laugh at.

WN made BNA a focus city because of tourism, business potential, and location.

Furthermore, the infrastructure isn’t in place at SDF for a large operation.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:48 pm

Lexy wrote:
I haven’t seen a single report the Nashville convention business is getting headaches because of Louisville. That’s pure conjecture on your part. The rest of it I can’t help but laugh at.

WN made BNA a focus city because of tourism, business potential, and location.

Furthermore, the infrastructure isn’t in place at SDF for a large operation.

" Ask Butch Spryidon about the importance of authenticity in todays convention and tourism business....ask him if he wishes Nashville had Bourbon. Then ask him why MCP has not met expectations? Hint - hotel packages are too expensive. Then ask him about the just re-opened KICC and the new hotels in downtown Louisville. Trust me....he is reaching for Advil.

Nashville has done amazingly well and deserves all that it has gotten. Unfortunately that also includes lots more traffic, much higher cost of housing and overall higher cost of business. FWIW a large Nashville REIT continues to purchase apartment complexes in Louisville...they say Louisville is the next Nashville. (this is not an isolated quote)

WN made BNA a focus city because AA left a void when they pulled the plug on their hub.

I have never suggested a 'large operation"....larger operation yes;. SDF: WN has 4 gates...they could operate 40 flights. DL has 5-6 and could operate 50-60 flights. No other infrastructure needed in short term for that

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:07 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

Bluegrass60 wrote:
To all you CVG, BNA, IND cheerleaders: I do not wish any negatives to your airports...my only wish is you accept that some portion of the traffic stats that are published include connecting traffic....that benefits (in order) BNA, CVG and IND.....and also include passengers from the SDF catchment area.

But you continue to claim that connections make up a significant share of passengers at these airports... I can't speak for BNA, but IND sees less than 5% of their passengers connect and CVG is less than 10%. DL's average is about 16% connecting at CVG, which equates to roughly 300,000 connecting emplacements out of 2 million total pax carried total. Your "guesstimate" put CVG's connecting passenger enplanments at 1-2 MILLION. That is nearly 5x the actual amount.

I would love to discuss what routes could be added from SDF. However, it is hard to hold discussions when you are throwing out random "guesstimates" that you have made up, meanwhile claiming that the DOT's data is invalid/has errors.

"Apologies...I do make guesstimates...because there is no solid data on connections other than what the airlines have and they ain't gonna share it. Fact: Delta does connect passengers at CVG....so does Frontier. CVG passenger count in 2013 was 5.7M....it grew to 7.8M in 2017. That is 36% growth. The CSA grew maybe 1% during that time. Reason for growth - ULCC and Delta cx

BNA had passenger counts that have averaged 8M to 9.8M from the 90's thru 2012. 2017 saw 14M. That is 42% growth. Nashville has been growing since 2012...but not by 42%. Where did that pax growth come from? WN focus city expansion form 80 to 115 flights/day and all that connecting traffic is the reason

IND traffic was 7M in 1996 dropping to 6.8M in 2002 rising to 8.2M in 2007 falling to 7.2M in 2013 to 8.7M in 2017. IND CSA is 400K larger than Nashville has strong convention business and strong economy but BNA handles 6M more passengers? Why? (I agree that IND connecting traffic is less than CVG and way less than BNA)

TYSflyer · Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:25 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
"The article should note that CVG , BNA and IND enplanements include significant amounts of connecting traffic WN uses BNA as a Focus City and I would guesstimate 3M-4M of thier passenger enplanements are connecting traffic vs O&D; CVG is still a DL hub and would guesstimate 1M-2M enplanements are connecting; IND is a small focus operation for WN, AA and DL so think 500k-1M of their enplanements are connecting. SDF has probably less than 100k enplanements that connect.

Bluegrass60 wrote:
To all you CVG, BNA, IND cheerleaders: I do not wish any negatives to your airports...my only wish is you accept that some portion of the traffic stats that are published include connecting traffic....that benefits (in order) BNA, CVG and IND.....and also include passengers from the SDF catchment area.

But you continue to claim that connections make up a significant share of passengers at these airports... I can't speak for BNA, but IND sees less than 5% of their passengers connect and CVG is less than 10%. DL's average is about 16% connecting at CVG, which equates to roughly 300,000 connecting emplacements out of 2 million total pax carried total. Your "guesstimate" put CVG's connecting passenger enplanments at 1-2 MILLION. That is nearly 5x the actual amount.

I would love to discuss what routes could be added from SDF. However, it is hard to hold discussions when you are throwing out random "guesstimates" that you have made up, meanwhile claiming that the DOT's data is invalid/has errors.

"Apologies...I do make guesstimates...because there is no solid data on connections other than what the airlines have and they ain't gonna share it. Fact: Delta does connect passengers at CVG....so does Frontier. CVG passenger count in 2013 was 5.7M....it grew to 7.8M in 2017. That is 36% growth. The CSA grew maybe 1% during that time. Reason for growth - ULCC and Delta cx

BNA had passenger counts that have averaged 8M to 9.8M from the 90's thru 2012. 2017 saw 14M. That is 42% growth. Nashville has been growing since 2012...but not by 42%. Where did that pax growth come from? WN focus city expansion form 80 to 115 flights/day and all that connecting traffic is the reason

IND traffic was 7M in 1996 dropping to 6.8M in 2002 rising to 8.2M in 2007 falling to 7.2M in 2013 to 8.7M in 2017. IND CSA is 400K larger than Nashville has strong convention business and strong economy but BNA handles 6M more passengers? Why? (I agree that IND connecting traffic is less than CVG and way less than BNA)

Reason for growth at CVG during that period you reference was because of substantial drop in fares due to the ULCC and fewer people driving to neighboring airports like DAY. Look at the drop in average fares at CVG during that time as well as the drop in passengers using DAY. In short, the growth at CVG during that time had little if anything to do with connections.

Lexy · Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:26 pm

Butch doesn’t care about Little ol Louisville son. He’s busy with conventions large enough for LA and Chicago, not some farm show.

Louisville is not the next Nashville for one reason and one reason only...Kentucky.

If you think 40 flights out of 4 gates is doable, I’m glad you don’t work in network planning for the airlines cause that’s not happening.

Just stop already with the guesstimates and comparisons to neighboring cities. Louisville has a long way to go to catch up.

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