We are less than a week away from February 15, 2018, when WN will open their schedule for sale through October 1, 2018.

What should we expect?

The Company expects its 2018 available seat mile year-over-year growth to be in the low five percent range, with first half 2018 year-over-year growth in the low three percent range and second half 2018 year-over-year growth in the low seven percent range. The second half 2018 year-over-year growth rate is significantly impacted by the 2017 retirement of Boeing 737-300 Classic aircraft and the approximately 5,000 flight cancellations due to natural disasters in third quarter 2017.

This schedule extension coincides with the 737-300 retirement last year, so their August/September schedule should look different than it did last year

Which routes are likely? More CA growth? PAE?

Also, if you hear any rumors or if any airports have announcements on Feb 16th please post them here

Hoping for DTW-HOU like I have been for the past few years. What do you think WN will do in response to F9?

Nothing from STL as there are few places left to go in the country
if we are lucky maybe a Caribbean/Latin America flight or a northeast flight (RIC? PVD?)

I would like to see some international additions out of MDW.

According to rumors, WN was planning to extend CVG-PHX to year round. Given that DL is now returning on the route, I will be curious to see if WN actually extends it.

flymco753 wrote:

What do you think WN will do in response to F9?

I'd expect some sort of retaliation from AUS....

I think we will see in this extension how much interest WN has in harassing AS further, both in California and otherwise. I would not be shocked either to see or not to see stuff like STL-SJC or BNA-PDX, but it will be instructive either way.

I would like Dulles to get some new cities!!! And hope this Schedule has more Hawaii info.

I would love to see STL-SDF make a come back but it's doubtful with oil around $60.
Plus they wouldn't want to cannibalize westward connections over DEN.

Cubsrule wrote:

I think we will see in this extension how much interest WN has in harassing AS further, both in California and otherwise. I would not be shocked either to see or not to see stuff like STL-SJC or BNA-PDX, but it will be instructive either way.

STL SJC is starting in April actually.

flydulles wrote:

I would like Dulles to get some new cities!!! And hope this Schedule has more Hawaii info.

I agree that WN does have opportunities to further expand at IAD, and WN could add nonstop service from IAD to AUS, DAL, HOU, LAX, OAK, PHX, and SJC. WN could also bring back nonstop service from IAD to MDW, LAS, and SAN.

FYI, this topic has been discussed for a week or 2 over on the WN thread...

bb

SANFan wrote:

FYI, this topic has been discussed for a week or 2 over on the WN thread...

bb

I'm aware, I made a new topic because that is generally what is done with WN schedule releases. Similar to what just happened with F9, and plus there would have been 4-5 new threads made next Friday when all the routes are released. This way, everything is centralized, and the WN thread can stay generalized.

Anyone see Southwest adding a route or two from Islip (ISP)?

Could this extension be the one that includes SXM?!?

Hopefully BNA will see a new city or two added, though I'm doubtful. Something like IND, SJC, BDL, PVD or PDX.

Also, hopefully CVG sees one or more of DAL, HOU, DEN, MCO, etc.

cvgComair wrote:

According to rumors, WN was planning to extend CVG-PHX to year round. Given that DL is now returning on the route, I will be curious to see if WN actually extends it.

I don't see why not. DL and WN would be the only daily flights on that route, so they could compete effectively. G4 (via AZA) and F9 don't do daily to Phoenix, so I don't really count them as serious competition.

ADrum23 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

According to rumors, WN was planning to extend CVG-PHX to year round. Given that DL is now returning on the route, I will be curious to see if WN actually extends it.

I don't see why not. DL and WN would be the only daily flights on that route, so they could compete effectively. G4 (via AZA) and F9 don't do daily to Phoenix, so I don't really count them as serious competition.

TBH, I think it would be more profitable for WN to make CVG-PHX daily, rather than CVG-DEN....

I think we could see these routes from PAE:

PAE-LAS
PAE-PHX
PAE-SJC

PAE-DEN/MDW are possible too IMO.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Southwest decides to add some Saturday Caribbean routes from LGA if they get their hands on some new slots. Maybe LGA-SJU, LGA-CUN?

Midwestindy wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

According to rumors, WN was planning to extend CVG-PHX to year round. Given that DL is now returning on the route, I will be curious to see if WN actually extends it.

I don't see why not. DL and WN would be the only daily flights on that route, so they could compete effectively. G4 (via AZA) and F9 don't do daily to Phoenix, so I don't really count them as serious competition.

TBH, I think it would be more profitable for WN to make CVG-PHX daily, rather than CVG-DEN....

DEN would be tricky since DL, UA, F9 and G4 all serve it, but I would imagine at some point they'll take the plunge and launch it, since it is their fourth largest station. Though I don't expect that anytime soon.

Is this the one we will get more Hawaii info...??

Do you think WN is still working on their extension today though? Is it already set in stone before their extension?
If they are in a retaliation mood I think IND-AUS (could) go daily. The SXSW Austin festival would nicely increase traffic over the beginning of the schedule period.
Here is PDEW information by city and carrier for IND-AUS and IND-SAT (IND-XXX only) in Q3 2017. (Excel work from USDOT DB1B) Increased IND-AUS service would pull from both AUS and SAT to an extent.
Carrier ... PDEW ... Fare
AUS Total 119.3406593 $215.81
Interline … 0.549450549 … $235.61
AA … 25.71428571 … $255.81
DL … 15.6043956 … $230.78
F9 … 0.989010989 … $127.58
G4 … 22.08791209 … $79.30
UA … 10.21978022 … $221.37
WN … 44.17582418 … $218.38
… …
SAT Total … 80.87912088 … $230.99
Interline … 0.10989011 … $305.88
AA … 20.32967033 … $247.67
DL … 13.2967033 … $251.20
F9 … 1.098901099 … $118.42
UA … 7.032967033 … $209.27
WN … 39.01098901 … $221.36


AUS-SEA could come back (DL dropped back to 1x daily)
From an IND point of view maybe they could start a fifth daily IND-DEN, given their load factor.
I'd like to see BNA, but unless they cut back on ATL I don't think it would happen.
These are load factors on WN flights to IND (January-September 2017) from T100
To IND Load Factor
DEN … 89.10%
DAL … 88.24%
LAS … 87.72%
MSY … 87.27%
MCO … 86.67%
SAN … 86.28%
HOU … 84.07%
PHX … 82.91%
TPA … 82.52%
RSW … 80.82%
LAX … 78.87%
FLL … 77.25%
DCA … 75.71%
BWI … 71.96%
BOS … 70.31%
ATL … 66.38%
EWR … 63.12%
MCI … 63.03%
MDW … 60.46%
LGA … 54.75%

MEM-DEN

Ever since WN dropped to one MEM- DAL flight, the connections to LA completely suck.
Either that or MEM-LAS to open up some better connectivity with the coast.

SumChristianus wrote:

Do you think WN is still working on their extension today though? Is it already set in stone before their extension?
If they are in a retaliation mood I think IND-AUS (could) go daily. The SXSW Austin festival would nicely increase traffic over the beginning of the schedule period.
Here is PDEW information by city and carrier for IND-AUS and IND-SAT (IND-XXX only) in Q3 2017. (Excel work from USDOT DB1B) Increased IND-AUS service would pull from both AUS and SAT to an extent.
Carrier ... PDEW ... Fare
AUS Total 119.3406593 $215.81
Interline … 0.549450549 … $235.61
AA … 25.71428571 … $255.81
DL … 15.6043956 … $230.78
F9 … 0.989010989 … $127.58
G4 … 22.08791209 … $79.30
UA … 10.21978022 … $221.37
WN … 44.17582418 … $218.38
… …
SAT Total … 80.87912088 … $230.99
Interline … 0.10989011 … $305.88
AA … 20.32967033 … $247.67
DL … 13.2967033 … $251.20
F9 … 1.098901099 … $118.42
UA … 7.032967033 … $209.27
WN … 39.01098901 … $221.36


AUS-SEA could come back (DL dropped back to 1x daily)
From an IND point of view maybe they could start a fifth daily IND-DEN, given their load factor.
I'd like to see BNA, but unless they cut back on ATL I don't think it would happen.
These are load factors on WN flights to IND (January-September 2017) from T100
To IND Load Factor
DEN … 89.10%
DAL … 88.24%
LAS … 87.72%
MSY … 87.27%
MCO … 86.67%
SAN … 86.28%
HOU … 84.07%
PHX … 82.91%
TPA … 82.52%
RSW … 80.82%
LAX … 78.87%
FLL … 77.25%
DCA … 75.71%
BWI … 71.96%
BOS … 70.31%
ATL … 66.38%
EWR … 63.12%
MCI … 63.03%
MDW … 60.46%
LGA … 54.75%

I'm agreeing with you that IND will likely go daily, SEA might come back as well. Do you think WN will add routes that F9 added to AUS like MKE? WN has sizable presence in MKE.

Come on MHT to FLL and DEN!

WNflyer1523 wrote:

I think we could see these routes from PAE:

PAE-LAS
PAE-PHX
PAE-SJC

PAE-DEN/MDW are possible too IMO.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Southwest decides to add some Saturday Caribbean routes from LGA if they get their hands on some new slots. Maybe LGA-SJU, LGA-CUN?

Has WN said anything about wanting to serve PAE? We already know AS and UA are going in. Two gates can only support so many flights.

masonh2479 wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

Do you think WN is still working on their extension today though? Is it already set in stone before their extension?
If they are in a retaliation mood I think IND-AUS (could) go daily. The SXSW Austin festival would nicely increase traffic over the beginning of the schedule period.
Here is PDEW information by city and carrier for IND-AUS and IND-SAT (IND-XXX only) in Q3 2017. (Excel work from USDOT DB1B) Increased IND-AUS service would pull from both AUS and SAT to an extent.
Carrier ... PDEW ... Fare
AUS Total 119.3406593 $215.81
Interline … 0.549450549 … $235.61
AA … 25.71428571 … $255.81
DL … 15.6043956 … $230.78
F9 … 0.989010989 … $127.58
G4 … 22.08791209 … $79.30
UA … 10.21978022 … $221.37
WN … 44.17582418 … $218.38
… …
SAT Total … 80.87912088 … $230.99
Interline … 0.10989011 … $305.88
AA … 20.32967033 … $247.67
DL … 13.2967033 … $251.20
F9 … 1.098901099 … $118.42
UA … 7.032967033 … $209.27
WN … 39.01098901 … $221.36


AUS-SEA could come back (DL dropped back to 1x daily)
From an IND point of view maybe they could start a fifth daily IND-DEN, given their load factor.
I'd like to see BNA, but unless they cut back on ATL I don't think it would happen.
These are load factors on WN flights to IND (January-September 2017) from T100
To IND Load Factor
DEN … 89.10%
DAL … 88.24%
LAS … 87.72%
MSY … 87.27%
MCO … 86.67%
SAN … 86.28%
HOU … 84.07%
PHX … 82.91%
TPA … 82.52%
RSW … 80.82%
LAX … 78.87%
FLL … 77.25%
DCA … 75.71%
BWI … 71.96%
BOS … 70.31%
ATL … 66.38%
EWR … 63.12%
MCI … 63.03%
MDW … 60.46%
LGA … 54.75%

I'm agreeing with you that IND will likely go daily, SEA might come back as well. Do you think WN will add routes that F9 added to AUS like MKE? WN has sizable presence in MKE.

Maybe starting as Sat/Sun only.
I wish WN would boost their MKE-West Coast presence. They used to have higher frequencies to LAX and SFO and are now the only carriers on those routes from MKE.

SumChristianus wrote:

From an IND point of view maybe they could start a fifth daily IND-DEN, given their load factor.
I'd like to see BNA, but unless they cut back on ATL I don't think it would happen.

September numbers are kind of out of wack, due to the natural disasters. So I'll focus in on the August numbers
IND-LAS-91.1%- add in an extra Sat frequency
IND-DEN-92.5%-add in an extra frequency, but decrease the flights to 737s rather than 738s

Re: IND-BNA and cutting back IND-ATL, would be likely more profitable for WN to move one of the IND-ATL frequencies over to BNA. If you look at peer cities, they can usually charge more for XXX-BNA than XXX-ATL, due to the fact there is less competition.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

I think we could see these routes from PAE:

PAE-LAS
PAE-PHX
PAE-SJC

PAE-DEN/MDW are possible too IMO.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Southwest decides to add some Saturday Caribbean routes from LGA if they get their hands on some new slots. Maybe LGA-SJU, LGA-CUN?

Has WN said anything about wanting to serve PAE? We already know AS and UA are going in. Two gates can only support so many flights.

"In addition, as a complement to our more than forty flights a day to 15 cities nonstop from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, today we announce our commitment to launch up to five daily flights at a new commercial aircraft facility at Paine Field in Everett, Washington, scheduled to be completed later this year."

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... -113046083

WN could add daily nonstop service to DAL from MSP, extend MSP-LAS nonstop service to year-round, and add new nonstop service from MSP to HOU and SAN.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

I think we could see these routes from PAE:

PAE-LAS
PAE-PHX
PAE-SJC

PAE-DEN/MDW are possible too IMO.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Southwest decides to add some Saturday Caribbean routes from LGA if they get their hands on some new slots. Maybe LGA-SJU, LGA-CUN?

It’ll be PAE-OAK before PAE-SJC.

stl07 wrote:

Nothing from STL as there are few places left to go in the country
if we are lucky maybe a Caribbean/Latin America flight or a northeast flight (RIC? PVD?)

Agree with you. STL doesn't have many more new destinations to go to on WN. Not sure this is the right time to add more international. IF we get an add, I think it will be BDL or RIC/ORF. JAX is our highest PDEW not served but I figured it would have come the last extension if it was coming. I wouldn't say I feel very confident in anything. CVG/MEM/IND are wild cards if they want to move flow from other stations. Hopefully CHS stays daily and doesn't go back to weekend only. Still waiting on PIT to go 2x daily for the full week.

Don't forget that as the ratio of 738s to 737s increases, the number of seats will increase significantly even if number of flights remains the same. So 7% y-o-y growth is maybe 1-2% of additional flights and the rest up-gauging. I suspect that apart from PAE, it will be a lot of seasonal flights going year-round and 1 weekly stuff going daily.

As for MSY, we will have 6 routes 1-2 weekly: RDU, PIT, CMH, IND, SMF, SJC, and CUN. RDU and PIT definitely have enough traffic to go daily, but September is a pretty slow period. However October is one of our busiest months, so it might not be a bad time to go daily on some of those routes. There may also be some opportunities to start some 1 weekly routes: MKE, BUF, RIC/ORF, PDX and BDL.

If there is one airline that could actually use more gates at AUS, that would be WN. I'm sure if they had more, they'd launch more routes. As it stands, do they have gate space to add flights in retaliation to DL or F9?

Other than that, I guess more California routes out of SAN and SJC? They are making a big deal about being the largest carrier at SAN, so I could see them strengthening that station. How much more gate space do they have there?

IND-SAN Year around

msycajun wrote:

Don't forget that as the ratio of 738s to 737s increases, the number of seats will increase significantly even if number of flights remains the same. So 7% y-o-y growth is maybe 1-2% of additional flights and the rest up-gauging.

You aren't wrong that seat count should be considered, but it doesn't weigh that significantly.

Jshank83 wrote:

stl07 wrote:

Nothing from STL as there are few places left to go in the country
if we are lucky maybe a Caribbean/Latin America flight or a northeast flight (RIC? PVD?)

Agree with you. STL doesn't have many more new destinations to go to on WN. Not sure this is the right time to add more international. IF we get an add, I think it will be BDL or RIC/ORF. JAX is our highest PDEW not served but I figured it would have come the last extension if it was coming. I wouldn't say I feel very confident in anything. CVG/MEM/IND are wild cards if they want to move flow from other stations. Hopefully CHS stays daily and doesn't go back to weekend only. Still waiting on PIT to go 2x daily for the full week.

WN did serve ABQ, BHM, IND, SDF, and SLC nonstop from STL in the past, and WN could bring back nonstop service to these 5 destinations out of STL.

CLT previously had nonstop service out of STL on both US and TW. CVG previously had nonstop service out of STL on both DL and TW. WN could add STL-CLT and STL-CVG nonstop service since WN now has over 50% market share at STL, since there are many frequent flyers in the St. Louis area that prefer to fly on WN, and since both CLT and CVG each have had nonstop service out of STL on more than 1 airline in the past.

WN would also be able to connect passengers to many destinations west of the Mississippi through STL from BHM, CLT, CVG, BDL, IND, SDF, MEM, ORF, and RIC if WN adds nonstop service to these destinations from STL. WN can connect passengers to at least AUS, DAL, DEN, DSM, HOU, MCI, LAS, LIT, LAX, MSP, MSY, OKC, OMA, PHX, SAT, SAN, TUL, and ICT from destinations east of the Mississippi that have nonstop service to STL on WN through STL (and vice versa).

tphuang wrote:

If there is one airline that could actually use more gates at AUS, that would be WN. I'm sure if they had more, they'd launch more routes. As it stands, do they have gate space to add flights in retaliation to DL or F9?

They are making a big deal about being the largest carrier at SAN, so I could see them strengthening that station.

If DL opens the rumored focus city/hub at AUS, then it would make more sense for WN to expand and strengthen SAN, as they would be the dominant carrier there and would not have to compete with the lure of DL and their more expansive network.

Mexicana757 wrote:

timberwolf24 wrote:

I would like to see some international additions out of MDW.

Same here. The last international additions were in 2013. I would like to see a 2x weekly MDW-PVR/SJD.

How are the loads/yields on WN international routes out of MDW? I wonder if the lack of international adds is due to trouble with competing with ORD's extensive international flights.

Here's my predictions.

If they go the competition route:

IND-JAX
IND-ECP (long-shot) G4 competes indirectly through VPS.
IND-PHL (long-shot)
IND-SLC (somewhat long shot)

If they go the monopoly route:

IND-BNA
IND-STL (long-shot)

ADrum23 wrote:

Mexicana757 wrote:

timberwolf24 wrote:

I would like to see some international additions out of MDW.

Same here. The last international additions were in 2013. I would like to see a 2x weekly MDW-PVR/SJD.

How are the loads/yields on WN international routes out of MDW? I wonder if the lack of international adds is due to trouble with competing with ORD's extensive international flights.

How much room would they have at MDW to add INTL flights?

ctrabs0114 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

Mexicana757 wrote:

Same here. The last international additions were in 2013. I would like to see a 2x weekly MDW-PVR/SJD.

How are the loads/yields on WN international routes out of MDW? I wonder if the lack of international adds is due to trouble with competing with ORD's extensive international flights.

How much room would they have at MDW to add INTL flights?

MDW has 3 gates in Concourse C that are rarely used. Couldn't WN use them for expanded service or will those gates go away when the pedestrian bridge over Cicero Ave is widened?

I would love to see WN add more int'l flights to MDW, maybe to NAS and AUA. That would bring int'l service closer to what TZ used to have 15 years ago!

On a side note, I recently realized that WN service to EWR has been stuck at about 18 daily departures for quite a long time. Why is that? Even with only 3 gates they could surely add 1 or 2 additional departures per gate per day and there is demand for WN at that airport, maybe not from the NJ side, but from passengers flying into NJ from somewhere else and for whom LGA and ISP and PHL are poor options.

It would be nice to see ISP-STL although that’s pretty unlikely.

ISP-LAS would be nice, they used to have it (even at 2x daily at one point) but cut it in 2008 during the recession.
It would definitely be year-round. Good for west coast connections in the summer, and for all the snowbirds in the winter.

EWRandMDW wrote:

ctrabs0114 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

How are the loads/yields on WN international routes out of MDW? I wonder if the lack of international adds is due to trouble with competing with ORD's extensive international flights.

How much room would they have at MDW to add INTL flights?

MDW has 3 gates in Concourse C that are rarely used. Couldn't WN use them for expanded service or will those gates go away when the pedestrian bridge over Cicero Ave is widened?

I would love to see WN add more int'l flights to MDW, maybe to NAS and AUA. That would bring int'l service closer to what TZ used to have 15 years ago!

On a side note, I recently realized that WN service to EWR has been stuck at about 18 daily departures for quite a long time. Why is that? Even with only 3 gates they could surely add 1 or 2 additional departures per gate per day and there is demand for WN at that airport, maybe not from the NJ side, but from passengers flying into NJ from somewhere else and for whom LGA and ISP and PHL are poor options.

WN could add nonstop service from MDW to PVR and SJD in order to provide easier access to these destinations from MDW, BUF, CVG, MHT, PVD, and DCA.

Midwestindy wrote:

AAvgeek744 wrote:

WNflyer1523 wrote:

I think we could see these routes from PAE:

PAE-LAS
PAE-PHX
PAE-SJC

PAE-DEN/MDW are possible too IMO.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Southwest decides to add some Saturday Caribbean routes from LGA if they get their hands on some new slots. Maybe LGA-SJU, LGA-CUN?

Has WN said anything about wanting to serve PAE? We already know AS and UA are going in. Two gates can only support so many flights.

"In addition, as a complement to our more than forty flights a day to 15 cities nonstop from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, today we announce our commitment to launch up to five daily flights at a new commercial aircraft facility at Paine Field in Everett, Washington, scheduled to be completed later this year."

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... -113046083

OK thanks. I thought I'd heard it but missed the official word.

zackary747 wrote:

Here's my predictions.

If they go the competition route:

IND-JAX
IND-ECP (long-shot) G4 competes indirectly through VPS.
IND-PHL (long-shot)
IND-SLC (somewhat long shot)

If they go the monopoly route:

IND-BNA
IND-STL (long-shot)

Surprised no IND-SAT

In the long-shot category I'd throw in SMF and PBI

Midwestindy wrote:

zackary747 wrote:

Here's my predictions.

If they go the competition route:

IND-JAX
IND-ECP (long-shot) G4 competes indirectly through VPS.
IND-PHL (long-shot)
IND-SLC (somewhat long shot)

If they go the monopoly route:

IND-BNA
IND-STL (long-shot)

Surprised no IND-SAT

In the long-shot category I'd throw in SMF and PBI

Forgot about those. Knew I was missing something.

Doesn't WN have more gates at BNA coming online sometime soon?