I’d Expect them on:
BNE-DPS
SYD-DPS
MEL-DPS
MEL-SIN
New Markets like AKL/CHC-PER, MEL-NAN, MEL/SYD-CGK

It looks like QANTAS used corporate debt ($350m) payable in year eight to finance the first four 787 aircraft. CASA are showing these aircraft as being unencumbered.

Revelation wrote:

Did Jetstar hire our very own keesje as their graphic artist?

I looked for but didn't see a housefly.

I would like to see a photo, but the A321 looks very nice in Jetstar's livery.

k

AirbusA322 wrote:

I’d Expect them on:
BNE-DPS
SYD-DPS
MEL-DPS
MEL-SIN
New Markets like AKL/CHC-PER, MEL-NAN, MEL/SYD-CGK

CGK, and CHC/AKL-PER all make a lot of sense to me. MNL too?

travelhound wrote:

Page 15 of 28.

Syndicated loans mature in 2019. These loans could be the syndicated loans used to finance the A380's.

Not to be too picky but does this sound more like a credit line or other short term bank loan? It's referred to as "syndicated loan facility - drawn" which implies it may or may not be used. If short term, its short maturity would be mismatched for long term financing for aircraft. It's also singular while there are several other debt tranches of bonds and secured aircraft debt that seem more likely to finance planes. Or were there more in the past?

Investment grade ratings...not too common in the industry.

QANTAS have already announced 45 of the existing Jetstar A320's will be refitted with new slimline seats and an extra row. With there currently being 63 A320 series in the Jetstar fleet the 18 A321LR will simply replace existing aircraft on a one to one basis.

If this is correct, over the next four years Jetstar will maintain a fleet of 63 A320 series aircraft, but will increase the available seats by 10.14% due to the larger size of the A321 and the extra row of seats to be fitted to each A320 aircraft.

If we now consider the A321LR will replace the 787 on some Bali flights, the aircraft is better suited to longer route structures (i.e. New Zealand, North Queensland)) we could actually see a reduction of Jetstar seats on traditional core trunk routes (i.e. Brisbane-Sydney). This will bode well for the higher yielding Qantas, which reported a domestic load factor of 78.7% and would probably like to have more of Jetstar's passengers flying on the red kangaroo.

I'd suggest the additional capacity of the A321LR, the extra row of seats in the existing A320's and QANTAS paying out leases on existing Jetstar A320's over the next couple of years will allow Jetstar to buy the new A321LR aircraft through free cash flows.

With an expected average fleet age of 8.0 years in 2022, no requirement for new capital, Jetstar is really looking like a star performer.

An example for Airbus and Boeing of more capable narrowbodies cannibalising what would be widebody sales. Who needs a 330/787 when a far cheaper 321LR does the job with less risk?

zeke wrote:

travelhound wrote:

This article from Flightglobal relates to the topic:

"Since its financial turnaround in fiscal 2015, Qantas has used surplus capital to fund shareholder returns rather than to grow invested capital. We do not view this as sustainable," says S&P credit analyst Graeme Ferguson.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... di-445939/

I saw a similar article showing two potential probelms, the ability to raise capital from the markets, and second the cap they have on foreign investment.

Their ability to raise funds at all or that they'll ultimately need more because they've deferred fleet replacement and spent the money on shareholder friendly policies? Returning funds to shareholders is fine if done in moderation or there's nothing else to do with the money, but QF has something else to do with some of it.

cschleic wrote:

travelhound wrote:

Page 15 of 28.

Syndicated loans mature in 2019. These loans could be the syndicated loans used to finance the A380's.

Not to be too picky but does this sound more like a credit line or other short term bank loan? It's referred to as "syndicated loan facility - drawn" which implies it may or may not be used. If short term, its short maturity would be mismatched for long term financing for aircraft. It's also singular while there are several other debt tranches of bonds and secured aircraft debt that seem more likely to finance planes. Or were there more in the past?

Investment grade ratings...not too common in the industry.

No, you are not being too picky. I simply made the connection because:

[list=]the A380's were financed through syndicate loans.
Alan Joyce seems to prefer his financing arrangements to be a little less opaque, suggesting he could have negotiated an early payout of the loans.[/list]

Only a supposition on my part.

This release does contain a fair amount of information. I think we are actually starting to see the QANTAS strategy play out. The jigsaw is starting to come together.

tayser wrote:

Re: 18 aircraft

MEL-DPS can be double daily 787-800s at times, if the aim is to at least match the same capacity, they'll need a significant amount of frequencies.

JQ's 788s are 314 Y seats and another 21 of their premium economy seats.

A321LR likely to be around 200 seats. 3x daily frequency would match the capacity of 2x daily 788.

Separately, might they also have the legs to do MEL-SIN (3,254NM via GC) - another 788 route?

I'm thinking that JQ might diversify its operations in Indonesia & expand Singapore (even though they just reduced it to x2 weekly from 5)

MEL-DPS: x2 daily A321NEOLR
MEL-LOM: x4 weekly A321NEOLR
MEL-CGK: x1 daily A321NEOLR
MEL-SIN: x1 daily A321NEOLR (7.5 hours on a A321 might be a bit of a stretch)

The freed up 787's:

MEL-KIX: new x4 weekly 788 (booming Japanese market exMEL, NRT has been doing well for QF and JL)
MEL-ICN: new x4 weekly 788 (growing market for Korean tourists, students, increasingly popular for Australians)
MEL-BKK: increase to x1 daily 788
MEL-SGN: increase to x1 daily 788

This will allow JQ to build on its international hub at MEL, which is already the biggest hub for the airline.

cschleic wrote:

zeke wrote:

travelhound wrote:

This article from Flightglobal relates to the topic:



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... di-445939/

I saw a similar article showing two potential probelms, the ability to raise capital from the markets, and second the cap they have on foreign investment.

Their ability to raise funds at all or that they'll ultimately need more because they've deferred fleet replacement and spent the money on shareholder friendly policies? Returning funds to shareholders is fine if done in moderation or there's nothing else to do with the money, but QF has something else to do with some of it.

Yes, you are correct. I agree their CAPEX spending has been low. What their financial results do tell us is that (1) Jetstar is not planning to increase its size over the next four years, (2) Jetstar A321LR jet purchases will largely be funded through additional free cash flows generated by the larger aircraft, (3) QANTAS domestic has room for growth simply by improving load factors and greater utilisation of the 737 fleet and (4) we have no idea how QANTAS International will fund the replacement of aircraft required to maintain a competitive fleet.

We have some parts to the jigsaw, but not all.

Interesting that Japan is not mentioned with regards to 787 destinations. Currently Jetstar flies OOL-NRT, CNS-NRT, CNS-KIX. Then again, the Jetstar Japan network can serve onwards destinations like CTS and FUK.

flee wrote:

tayser wrote:

A321LR likely to be around 200 seats.

In a single class configuration, the A321neo can have up to 236 seats.

JetStar will probably have less if they deploy Premium Economy.

AirbusA322 wrote:

I’d Expect them on:
BNE-DPS
SYD-DPS
MEL-DPS
MEL-SIN
New Markets like AKL/CHC-PER, MEL-NAN, MEL/SYD-CGK

What about heavy domestic routes like MEL-PER, MEL-BNE, etc.?

The catching up continues

tayser wrote:

Separately, might they also have the legs to do MEL-SIN (3,254NM via GC) - another 788 route?

That should be realistic even with a stock A321 with one extra fuel tank if they don't fill it with seats to the hilt. The LR, probably close to exit limit.

Best regards
Thomas

Swadian wrote:

flee wrote:

tayser wrote:

A321LR likely to be around 200 seats.

In a single class configuration, the A321neo can have up to 236 seats.

JetStar will probably have less if they deploy Premium Economy.

AirbusA322 wrote:

I’d Expect them on:
BNE-DPS
SYD-DPS
MEL-DPS
MEL-SIN
New Markets like AKL/CHC-PER, MEL-NAN, MEL/SYD-CGK

What about heavy domestic routes like MEL-PER, MEL-BNE, etc.?

Here is what was stated in QF's press release

These next generation, longer range aircraft can fly routes like Melbourne and Sydney to Bali, currently operated by the 787-8 Dreamliner. The arrival of the first four long range NEOs will add capacity on these routes with potential to also free up some 787-8 flying time for use on other leisure routes such as Vietnam, China, Thailand and Hawaii.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -training/

The A321's that JQ use now are used on SYD-MEL, SYD-HBA, SYD-OOL, SYD-CNS, SYD-BNE, MEL-BNE, MEL-OOL, MEL-CNS, MEL-HBA, so any of these are candidates and probably SYD/MEL-PER as well