Rumor: Air New Zealand to announce Chicago

787fan8 · Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:43 pm

The New Zealand Herald is reporting that former president Barack Obama will visit New Zealand in March, and that the trip has been arranged by Air New Zealand. Although the reason for the visit is unknown, there has been speculation that Air New Zealand will announce service to Chicago during the visit, as this is Obama’s hometown.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=11987689

MaverickM11 · Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:51 pm

On a related note—can the 789 do AKLNYC? It’s a little longer than LAXSIN.

SumChristianus · Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:11 pm

I doubt there is enough demand left over for NZ from the US to see much more expansion.
The recent (2 or so years ago) entrance of AA and UA (now 77W) as well as Air New Zealand launching IAH.
New nonstops from the US/Canada to Australia also pull away from feed for AKL-US flights, making AKL more dependent on local traffic.
ORD is probabaly the best option for any additional capacity to New Zealand, but I overall question its viability versus IAH/LAX/SFO service.

I think a B789 "could" fly ORD-AKL, but is this anything more than a rumor?

jetero · Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:18 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
I doubt there is enough demand left over for NZ from the US to see much more expansion.
The recent (2 or so years ago) entrance of AA and UA (now 77W) as well as Air New Zealand launching IAH.
New nonstops from the US/Canada to Australia also pull away from feed for AKL-US flights, making AKL more dependent on local traffic.
ORD is probabaly the best option for any additional capacity to New Zealand, but I overall question its viability versus IAH/LAX/SFO service.

I think a B789 "could" fly ORD-AKL, but is this anything more than a rumor?

If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

qf002 · Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:52 pm

jetero wrote:
If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

Really? IAH itself has decent O&D with Australia, and it's high yield traffic. And ORD isn't really a direct replacement for IAH in terms of hub connectivity or geography either, the two routes can easily coexist and serve complementary roles.

I'm not sure I get the whole Obama angle though. Seems like a very strange marketing strategy for an airline to pursue.

LHUSA · Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:30 pm

qf002 wrote:
jetero wrote:
If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

Really? IAH itself has decent O&D with Australia, and it's high yield traffic..

Remember that UA has just started IAH-SYD, most of that high-yield traffic will opt for the nonstop .

I do wonder how NZ's IAH-AKL will fare with an ORD flight in place.

NZ321 · Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:58 pm

IAH opens the gateway to central America and Mexico and the northern part of South America in a way that LAX and EZE do not and neither does ORD. So that will be a factor in the mix. I wouldn't jump to conclusions that IAH is gone just because ORD may begin. This doesn't seem to fit the long thin strategy that NZ are employing. UAL nonstop IAH-SYD is certainly another factor in the mix. But SYD isn't everything. There is BNE and MEL too. Plenty of high yielding traffic ex MEL. Domestic-international connections in Australia vs international-international at Auckland as well. Plus service. NZ in business still has an edge over UAL IMHO so for passengers in MEL and BNE who have to do a domestic connection to SYD to catch a UAL service, NZ may still be the favoured carrier. Time will tell.

rbavfan · Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:03 pm

787fan8 wrote:
The New Zealand Herald is reporting that former president Barack Obama will visit New Zealand in March, and that the trip has been arranged by Air New Zealand. Although the reason for the visit is unknown, there has been speculation that Air New Zealand will announce service to Chicago during the visit, as this is Obama’s hometown.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=11987689

Home of Choice yes. But being born in Honolulu make that his home town.

LAX772LR · Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:15 pm

jetero wrote:
If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

Based on ____?

MaverickM11 wrote:
On a related note—can the 789 do AKLNYC? It’s a little longer than LAXSIN.

We're talking about a 30nm difference, for a flight that will op at lower latitudes.
Block another seat or two over what UA does on their worst days, and you're there.

SumChristianus wrote:
I think a B789 "could" fly ORD-AKL

The model in general can, as ORD-AKL is 600mi shorter than some of the routes the 789 already flies.
Whether it can do so with a configuration/load/yield that NZ finds preferable, is another story.

smi0006 · Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:25 pm

Don’t forget this isn’t simply AKL-ORD, or NZ-ORD or SYD-AKL-ORD, it’s NZ/SYD/BNE/MEL/BNE/PER/ADL/MCY/OOL\CNS- great feed from all over AU and NZ. I do think NZ have to move fast on this one as QF will be snapping at their heals.

Should the AA/QF JV go through, I wouldn’t be surprised for NZ/UA to apply for AU/US/NZ to be a single market JV

jetero · Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:26 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
jetero wrote:
If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

Based on ____?

Yes, based on a line.

What would ORD add?

The only reason they'd be doing it would be to p*ss UA off for IAH-SYD.

TWA772LR · Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:26 pm

It's been rumored before. Right before they announced Houston, it was down to ORD, IAH & DEN.

JBusworth · Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:27 pm

smi0006 wrote:
I do think NZ have to move fast on this one as QF will be snapping at their heals.

If QF doesn't announce BNE-ORD this month or next, its NZs to lose.

PA515 · Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:59 pm

jetero wrote:
The only reason they'd be doing it would be to p*ss UA off for IAH-SYD.

Not at all. UA and NZ co-operate to compete with AA and QF.

JBusworth wrote:
If QF doesn't announce BNE-ORD this month or next, its NZs to lose.

Could be both Air NZ and Qantas with three weekly flights to ORD from Dec 2018.

Air NZ received the first two 275 seat 789s in 2017 which are used on the daily AKL-IAH. They receive a further two in Sep 2018. One will be used on the daily AKL-SIN and one for a destination yet to be announced, so AKL-ORD can only be three weekly to begin.

The last Qantas 789 on order will be delivered in Nov 2018. There are six aircraft days available for a destination yet to be announced (Tu Th Su from BNE).

PA515

axio · Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:02 pm

qf002 wrote:
I'm not sure I get the whole Obama angle though. Seems like a very strange marketing strategy for an airline to pursue.

The hypothesis I've seen elsewhere is that his mate, former PM John Key, is now on the NZ board, and might have been able to swing such an arrangement.

AAvgeek744 · Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:16 pm

I can't see them doing anything until they get the 789 engine issue behind them. Regardless, I think ORD and IAH can co-exist.

DWC · Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:32 am

If rumour is true, I could fly AKL-ADD with one stop only in ORD, yay !

ZK-NBT · Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:46 am

jetero wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
jetero wrote:
If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

Based on ____?

Yes, based on a line.

What would ORD add?

The only reason they'd be doing it would be to p*ss UA off for IAH-SYD.

It adds fragmentation to the market.

NZ/UA JV doesn’t extend to OZ/US only NZ/US however NZ won’t do something just to annoy a partner they will go elsewhere.

No way NZ drops IAH.

LAX772LR · Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:28 am

jetero wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
jetero wrote:
If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

Based on ____?

Yes, based on a line.

What would ORD add?

The only reason they'd be doing it would be to p*ss UA off for IAH-SYD.

So in other words, nothing more than supposition? Figures.

jetero · Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 am

PA515 wrote:
jetero wrote:
The only reason they'd be doing it would be to p*ss UA off for IAH-SYD.

Not at all. UA and NZ co-operate to compete with AA and QF.

JBusworth wrote:
If QF doesn't announce BNE-ORD this month or next, its NZs to lose.

Could be both Air NZ and Qantas with three weekly flights to ORD from Dec 2018.

Air NZ received the first two 275 seat 789s in 2017 which are used on the daily AKL-IAH. They receive a further two in Sep 2018. One will be used on the daily AKL-SIN and one for a destination yet to be announced, so AKL-ORD can only be three weekly to begin.

The last Qantas 789 on order will be delivered in Nov 2018. There are six aircraft days available for a destination yet to be announced (Tu Th Su from BNE).

PA515

Don’t think JV covers US-Australia yet.

babastud · Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:20 am

I don't see the demand, Sorry. As is there has already been a lot of capacity adds of late to Aus and NZ. This does not add anything.

Motorhussy · Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:28 am

NZ has to fragment its market to the US outside of its traditional LAX hub. Expect smaller planes (A359 most probably) operating to more destinations so as to remain relevant to passengers to/from Australia and the US. This is in light of more competition from more airlines and aircraft that can skip New Zealand so NZ needs a point of difference. Passengers from IAH to PER can go one stop with NZ via AKL, same with passengers from ORD to ADL for example (if the launch goes ahead as speculated).

A lot of us here in New Zealand think EWR will be next after ORD, along with a new aircraft announcement to replace the 77E and eventually 77W too.

jetero · Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:35 am

Motorhussy wrote:
NZ has to fragment its market to the US outside of its traditional LAX hub. Expect smaller planes (A359 most probably) operating to more destinations so as to remain relevant to passengers to/from Australia and the US. This is in light of more competition from more airlines and aircraft that can skip New Zealand so NZ needs a point of difference. Passengers from IAH to PER can go one stop with NZ via AKL, same with passengers from ORD to ADL for example (if the launch goes ahead as speculated).

A lot of us here in New Zealand think EWR will be next after ORD, along with a new aircraft announcement to replace the 77E and eventually 77W too.

What you describe is adding a flight for the outbound ORD market. If that’s how NZ approaches route planning, well fine I guess. 50% of 3 ORD-ADL passengers per day doesn’t sound like the right business model to me for a 7000-mi route.

EWR, however, is a completely different story.

(I’m confident enough it will be announced next week so I can be proven wrong.)

qf2220 · Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:36 am

Dont forget the QF results announcement is coming up somewhere in the next few weeks (Feb 22 to be exact) which is speculated to include a 789 order extension and new route announcements....

tealnz · Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 am

I have no idea whether NZ are planning an announcement involving Obama any time soon. But folks who can’t see NZ launching ORD at all need to do their homework. Luxon and co have been explicit about plans to launch ORD, NYC and Brazil (GRU?) as the 77E replacements come into service. There’s been nothing to suggest their plans have changed. You think they can’t do the math on viability of new routes? Success of EZE, IAH and HND says you’re wrong.

Motorhussy · Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:58 am

@TEALNZ

jetero wrote:
50% of 3 ORD-ADL passengers per day doesn’t sound like the right business model to me for a 7000-mi route.

EWR, however, is a completely different story.

(I’m confident enough it will be announced next week so I can be proven wrong.)

Being a bridge between the U.S. and Australia with an extremely compelling product has been a winning solution for NZ for quite sometime now so refining this strategy for a changing environment makes total sense, your opinion isn't really relevant.

BTW, ORD-ADL was merely an example, as previously stated. The same also applies for *alliance passengers to from ORD to MEL, PER, BNE, OOL and CNS, and WLG, CHC and ZQN.

Motorhussy · Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:03 am

jetero wrote:
Don’t think JV covers US-Australia yet.

UA codeshare on pretty much all trans-Tasman NZ flights. I fly many of them.

zkncj · Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:05 am

jetero wrote:

If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.[/quote]

You would have to be joking IAH just went daily this NW18, ORD would just add to one of the valuable connections from Australia via AKL.

AKL-ORD could depart at 22:30, allowing people to take an 16:00 service ex BNE,SYD,MEL getting to ORD late afternoon. AKL-IAH departs at 19:00 which requires an midday flight ex-Australia.

lavalampluva · Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:23 am

While that’s a huge achievement my God flights are getting long!!

zkncj · Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:34 am

lavalampluva wrote:
While that’s a huge achievement my God flights are getting long!!

AKL-ORD is nothing - try AKL-DOH its currently the longest at around 18h50m.

LAX772LR · Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:46 am

lavalampluva wrote:
While that’s a huge achievement my God flights are getting long!!

Yes and no.

Individual segments are getting longer... but journeys are getting shorter. Flights that required two connections not all that long ago, are now nonstop... and for the HVFs, that's a great thing, because time is money.

Nouflyer · Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:06 am

Considering that Air NZ fare levels and yields are consistently higher Australia-HNL then Australia-LAX/SFO......

then maybe the President from Hawaii would do better selling daily NZ services to Honolulu - or even a first OGG international flight - rather than another US mainland port.

I’m baffled anyway as to why NZ would open ORD before EWR. Are they trying to have no O+D traffic?

VirginFlyer · Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:23 am

Nouflyer wrote:
I’m baffled anyway as to why NZ would open ORD before EWR. Are they trying to have no O+D traffic?

North American koruhub?

:duck:

V/F

getluv · Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:21 am

Motorhussy wrote:
jetero wrote:
Don’t think JV covers US-Australia yet.

UA codeshare on pretty much all trans-Tasman NZ flights. I fly many of them.

This is true, however UA prices any AU bound or ex-AU itineraries with NZ operated flights (whether it be US-NZ or AU-NZ) significantly higher to prevent people from booking any NZ operated flights. By doing this, UA doesn't have to share revenue if it excludes NZ.

In fact, even interlines with QF on domestic AU flights are also significantly cheaper than connecting with NZ through AKL.

Zkpilot · Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:25 am

Nouflyer wrote:
Considering that Air NZ fare levels and yields are consistently higher Australia-HNL then Australia-LAX/SFO......

then maybe the President from Hawaii would do better selling daily NZ services to Honolulu - or even a first OGG international flight - rather than another US mainland port.

I’m baffled anyway as to why NZ would open ORD before EWR. Are they trying to have no O+D traffic?

They don’t currently and won’t for some time have an aircraft that is commercially viable for EWR.
Only once they receive either the A359 or 778 will this become possible.
ORD on the other hand is viable with current tech.

Word on the internal grapevine at Air NZ is that ORD is a definite.

smi0006 · Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:35 am

I vaguely recall QF stating once IAH,SFO and ORD were their highest traffic routes with greatest yields they DIDN’T fly too. This was just prior to or when they announced SFO. Seems NZ could be tapping into this.

Aussies and Kiwis love to travel, and we love the states. I can see ORD being a significant destination for leisure and a great hub, with IAH more skewed to business traffic. Purely speculation on my behalf

planemanofnz · Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:38 am

zkncj wrote:
AKL-ORD is nothing - try AKL-DOH

ORD - AKL on NZ's 3-4-3 77Ws or 3-3-3 789s will be horrendous (~16 hours 30 minutes).

QR's service is all the more bearable, by virtue of the wider seats (and other 5 star perks).

Cheers,

C.

IADCA · Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:17 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
AKL-ORD is nothing - try AKL-DOH

ORD - AKL on NZ's 3-4-3 77Ws or 3-3-3 789s will be horrendous (~16 hours 30 minutes).

QR's service is all the more bearable, by virtue of the wider seats (and other 5 star perks).

Cheers,

C.

Perhaps, but there's not much alternative from the US to NZ without connections. It's all 3-3-3 787s or 3-4-3 777s with the exception of HA, and HA's connections aside from the West Coast are poor for everything save JFK. Basically,unless you're on the West Coast with HA service, it's either a 3-4-3 777, a 3-3-3 787 if you're in coach, going the long way via the Gulf, or a double connection.

NZ321 · Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:19 pm

Cockpit and systems commonality aside, IMHO it's time for NZ to seize the moment and take the A350 and reclaim their status as a leading airline with a respectable service in all classes. That distinction has been sadly lost. I've done NZ 772 in economy once and I vowed after 11 hours on that jet I'd never do it again. I've been lucky enough to use my points and work provision of premium economy and business to avoid a repeat experience. For leisure travel I use Thai or SQ in economy if heading to Asia or EK on the A380. I use my status and points to avoid NZ economy on flights to North America. A350 allows NZ to keep 32-33 inches and wider seats down the back and offer the premium economy and business passengers a comparable travelling experience to what is available on the 777 and a lot better than the current config on the 789 for long haul and ultra long haul flights. Indeed, With NZ so far removed from so many of NZ's destinations I hope this becomes a reality. Surely this is not divorced from their role in marketing NZ as a world leading quality destination. I think the opportunity is for NZ to seize the competitive advantage on customer experience that has been lost to other airlines. New equipment allows for this. All the more so with QF likely selection of 77X. Time for a change and offering passengers on both sides of the ditch a choice.

zkncj · Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:26 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
AKL-ORD is nothing - try AKL-DOH

ORD - AKL on NZ's 3-4-3 77Ws or 3-3-3 789s will be horrendous (~16 hours 30 minutes).

It the passengers choice to fly in Y if you want an cheaper ticket then you have to live with 3-4-3, otherwise PE and J provide comfort.

ILS28ORD · Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:09 pm

How would this route be flown typically? Depart NZ northeast and head for the Mexico/California pacific coastline or fly south over Antarctica and then north over all of South America and the southern US into Chicago?

qf2220 · Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:28 pm

ILS28ORD wrote:
How would this route be flown typically? Depart NZ northeast and head for the Mexico/California pacific coastline or fly south over Antarctica and then north over all of South America and the southern US into Chicago?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=ord-akl

planemanofnz · Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:07 pm

zkncj wrote:
It the passengers choice to fly in Y if you want an cheaper ticket ...

If only NZ were cheap, though - it is a hugely expensive carrier.

Cheers,

C.

zkncj · Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:55 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
It the passengers choice to fly in Y if you want an cheaper ticket ...

If only NZ were cheap, though - it is a hugely expensive carrier.

Cheers,

C.

Over the past 18 months NZ has got allot cheaper - although $2000 return is pretty reasonable for 2x 14hour flights.

AMSAKL · Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:34 pm

Hi everyone

Long long time lurker first time poster.

It seems NZ's strategy is to build a US port up to daily then look to start the next, which of course with Houston now up to daily it's time to get into either ORD or EWR. This combined with the steady growth in wide body connections from Australia.

I really like the addition of John Key to the NZ board. The networking fire power is immense. As long as I see him and Luxon together I think NZ shareholders can look forward to good returns for years to come.

Frederik

nmdrdh787 · Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:44 pm

Thanks for the humor today , A.net . Love how uninformed most of the posters on this thread are :lol:

WROORD · Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:00 am

qf002 wrote:
jetero wrote:
If ORD is announced, IAH is gone.

Really? IAH itself has decent O&D with Australia, and it's high yield traffic. And ORD isn't really a direct replacement for IAH in terms of hub connectivity or geography either, the two routes can easily coexist and serve complementary roles.

I'm not sure I get the whole Obama angle though. Seems like a very strange marketing strategy for an airline to pursue.

Agreed, linking any political figure to marketing could be very risky.

CHI2DFW · Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:34 pm

It’s official now (on other threads)!

Thought this was supposed to happen last week.

kngkyle · Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:59 pm

We don't need to talk about this on multiple threads. Please continue on the newer thread.

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