WJ I thought you were talking about the ATI stuff. I think I need to get some sleep before I try to read any more.

Cheery Bye!

N376AN is scheduled for delivery on Sunday morning to SNN

travaz wrote:

WJ I thought you were talking about the ATI stuff. I think I need to get some sleep before I try to read any more.

Cheery Bye!

Oh, I know, Trav. It was I who wasn't clear in my post! Sweet dreams!!

wjcandee wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

Also, if anyone from Hawaii could share some information if they have a package shipped via Amazon Air it would be interesting to know if they are dropped off at the SCF level or the DDU level. I wonder what this will mean for ParcelPool/International Bridge.

Interesting question. I'm assuming that they were forwarding Amazon packages on a variety of carriers to Hawaii (and PR?), and then arranging for DDU-level injection and final-mile by the USPS. That's at least their usual program for their stateside customers. I don't know why USPS final-mile wouldn't be used by AFS (now ASI) as well, so presumably it's the air component and delivery to USPS that would shift over to ASI. But if the flight isn't going daily, I wonder whether other Amazon shipments to Hawaii would still use International Bridge. Aloha Cargo certainly wants to maintain whatever level of Amazon it is carrying (presumably for International Bridge?), so it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Of course, a rising tide floats all boats, so maybe losing business isn't something that's going to happen in any meaningful way... Also, Aloha Cargo only flies six days a week, so there's an opportunity to fill a hole there.

I know in PR, International Bridge does injection at the Catano Annex. Also, to PR Amazon also sometimes uses UPS Mail Innovations, which has a dedicated flight from MCO and injects at San Juan. Other times they simply use straight USPS First Class/Priority or UPS 2nd Day.

All of the Atlas Amazon 767s are ETOPS certified. The fleet has maintained ETOPS certification since the beginning based on Amazon indicating (at some point, to somebody) that extended overwater and international routes would be a growth opportunity someday. Now it looks like that decision is paying off for Atlas and Amazon with the HNL route.

[twoid][/twoid]

wjcandee wrote:

This whole Hawaii thing also raises the question of which Atlas-Titan-Andromeda Amazon Air aircraft are currently ETOPS-certified. I'm guessing 1217A is, because it did the Hawaii run on Sunday. Are any of the rest certified? Will they be now that Amazon seems to have about-faced in terms of what maintenance standard it wants to apply to its leased aircraft?

Amazon wanted them all to be ETOPs so they are.

Thanks, Whip! I guess they didn't have the same arrangement with ABX/ATI, and now may be changing that.

Just as an update on local Amazon operations here in the Phoenix area, it appears that Amazon Air packages delivered by AMZL are now airport-sorted, without making the extra stop at the PHX8 Sortation Center. PHX8 now primarily handles USPS-bound packages, as well as AMZL ground packages (except from PHX3, PHX6, ONT6, and possibly the new TUS1, which go straight to the Delivery Station at least in the case of DPX3 in Chandler).

Also, another difference between Amazon's choice of shipping carriers for Alaska/Hawaii vs. Puerto Rico is that as far as I know Amazon never uses FedEx to Puerto Rico, since I think their shipping rates to PR are too high for Amazon. I know UPS shipping services to PR are a hybrid domestic/international product, where export documentation is required but the standard domestic services are offered. FedEx on the other hand only offers its purely international products to Puerto Rico.

N376AN is grounded in TLV after a wing collision while pushing back from the hangar on Saturday, ETD still unknown at the moment

yochai wrote:

N376AN is grounded in TLV after a wing collision while pushing back from the hangar on Saturday, ETD still unknown at the moment

Ugh. What a shame. Probably not there at TLV, but the funniest reports I have ever read are the ones where the wing walkers try to explain how the wing hit something when they are standing right there. The airlines often are not employing rocket scientists for this work -- nor need they do so -- but sometimes you don't get that they are hiring people with the most scrupulous dedication to their responsibility.

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

JamesCousins wrote:

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

Very interesting! Thanks for that!

JamesCousins wrote:

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

Is that the case even in rural areas? While major cities most of the deliveries are done by Amazon Logistics in the United States, some deliveries will overflow to other carriers (usually USPS, but sometimes UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional delivery carriers). In most rural areas USPS is the main last mile carrier, with occasional shipments by UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional carriers. Also, one-day air shipping is usually UPS or FedEx.

1337Delta764 wrote:

JamesCousins wrote:

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

Is that the case even in rural areas? While major cities most of the deliveries are done by Amazon Logistics in the United States, some deliveries will overflow to other carriers (usually USPS, but sometimes UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional delivery carriers). In most rural areas USPS is the main last mile carrier, with occasional shipments by UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional carriers. Also, one-day air shipping is usually UPS or FedEx.

In New York City, AMZL does the line-haul and transportation to the DDU, but the USPS is the overwhelmingly-favorite carrier. Some one-day deliveries come AMZL or Lasership, etc., or FedEx/UPS, in NYC, but the vast majority of 2-day is delivered by USPS. It's extraordinary how much volume they deliver. More-balanced in the 'burbs.

wjcandee wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

JamesCousins wrote:

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

Is that the case even in rural areas? While major cities most of the deliveries are done by Amazon Logistics in the United States, some deliveries will overflow to other carriers (usually USPS, but sometimes UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional delivery carriers). In most rural areas USPS is the main last mile carrier, with occasional shipments by UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional carriers. Also, one-day air shipping is usually UPS or FedEx.

In New York City, AMZL does the line-haul and transportation to the DDU, but the USPS is the overwhelmingly-favorite carrier. Some one-day deliveries come AMZL or Lasership, etc., or FedEx/UPS, in NYC, but the vast majority of 2-day is delivered by USPS. It's extraordinary how much volume they deliver. More-balanced in the 'burbs.

We get mostly AMZL for both one-day and two-day, with USPS second, UPS third, OnTrac fourth, and FedEx fifth. UPS and OnTrac typically occur when they ship from an atypical fulfillment center within ground range (probably those without linehaul routes to PHX8), or in the case of UPS, a backordered item shipped overnight or an order placed during a high-demand time (such as Prime Day or the holiday season). The only time I have ever gotten FedEx to my home address was a paid upgrade to One-Day shipping for a Saturday Delivery.

https://reut.rs/2J8hplg

Potentially relevant news

1337Delta764 wrote:

JamesCousins wrote:

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

Is that the case even in rural areas? While major cities most of the deliveries are done by Amazon Logistics in the United States, some deliveries will overflow to other carriers (usually USPS, but sometimes UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional delivery carriers). In most rural areas USPS is the main last mile carrier, with occasional shipments by UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional carriers. Also, one-day air shipping is usually UPS or FedEx.

I believe so. The size of the UK is obviously far smaller, and rural areas often closely neighbor cities with those deliveries just being handled by the closest Amazon Logistics driver. The only instance where the national post carrier is used (Royal Mail), is with deliveries that fit into a letter form factor (e.g. go through a letterbox). Even this isn't always the case, if you order after around 8pm it will go with an Amazon driver, as Royal Mail will only accept next day deliveries before a certain time.

I was shocked to discover Prime in the US is 2-day delivery, we get all of the stuff next day here (with some items on free 2 hour delivery!)

JamesCousins wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

JamesCousins wrote:

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

Is that the case even in rural areas? While major cities most of the deliveries are done by Amazon Logistics in the United States, some deliveries will overflow to other carriers (usually USPS, but sometimes UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional delivery carriers). In most rural areas USPS is the main last mile carrier, with occasional shipments by UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional carriers. Also, one-day air shipping is usually UPS or FedEx.

I believe so. The size of the UK is obviously far smaller, and rural areas often closely neighbor cities with those deliveries just being handled by the closest Amazon Logistics driver. The only instance where the national post carrier is used (Royal Mail), is with deliveries that fit into a letter form factor (e.g. go through a letterbox). Even this isn't always the case, if you order after around 8pm it will go with an Amazon driver, as Royal Mail will only accept next day deliveries before a certain time.

I was shocked to discover Prime in the US is 2-day delivery, we get all of the stuff next day here (with some items on free 2 hour delivery!)

Depending on ZIP code, free Same-Day Delivery or One-Day Shipping is offered on qualifying items as long as the order is over $35. That is, the item is readily stocked at the nearest fulfillment centers. Free 2-Hour Delivery is offered in the more central areas on select items. And the Free One-Day Shipping can cover quite a bit of rural area; most of Arizona is covered at least by the Free One-Day Shipping area (probably either from the Phoenix or Las Vegas area fulfillment centers depending on ZIP code, possibly also the Inland Empire for southwestern Arizona) except for Northeastern Arizona.

I think the Free-One Day Shipping outside of the Phoenix Metropolitan Area may be either via UPS Ground or OnTrac. And actually they started Free One-Day to our ZIP Code two months before AMZL actually started serving our area, and the first time I place a Free One-Day order it was delivered via USPS shipping out of Phoenix.

JamesCousins wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

JamesCousins wrote:

Wow, might I just thank everyone for their contributions to this thread, it's a fascinating read! As a UK member it's interesting to see Amazon are still so reliant on the likes of USPS, UPS and FedEx in the US. Here in the UK Amazon Prime is all done in house, with the door-to-door couriers all working for 'Amazon Logistics' and long range trucks being brought in house too. Amazon's strategy of bringing things in house is great to see, and with Samsung following maybe we'll see companies such as Apple follow suit, on the airline front at least...

Is that the case even in rural areas? While major cities most of the deliveries are done by Amazon Logistics in the United States, some deliveries will overflow to other carriers (usually USPS, but sometimes UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional delivery carriers). In most rural areas USPS is the main last mile carrier, with occasional shipments by UPS, FedEx, and smaller regional carriers. Also, one-day air shipping is usually UPS or FedEx.

I believe so. The size of the UK is obviously far smaller, and rural areas often closely neighbor cities with those deliveries just being handled by the closest Amazon Logistics driver. The only instance where the national post carrier is used (Royal Mail), is with deliveries that fit into a letter form factor (e.g. go through a letterbox). Even this isn't always the case, if you order after around 8pm it will go with an Amazon driver, as Royal Mail will only accept next day deliveries before a certain time.

I was shocked to discover Prime in the US is 2-day delivery, we get all of the stuff next day here (with some items on free 2 hour delivery!)

The size of the UK is comparable to US from Maine to NC, roughly out to Ohio/Kentucky? That's not much outside of UPS' guaranteed one day delivery from PHL area, and perhaps at less volume, too. A lot of UPS Air premium service is trucked in this area, too. FedEx ground has taken much of FedEx Express and UPS volume with how far they cover in a day. I'm not surprised that the majority of UK can get one day, if not same day service on many items.

A Boeing 767-319 just landed at ILN (N930WE) from HNL. I think it was an Air New Zealand bird but now owned by ATSG. Don't know as is to why it is here now as it has a strange tail number. I suspect it will be converted.

It is definitely being converted. 30 West, hence the tail number, bought 3 former Air New Zealand 767-300 with GE engines. It took possession of one, and kind of sat on it for over a year while it tried to remarket it for passenger or freighter use. Eventually, they sold it recently to CAM. Don't know about the other two yet. 30 West is a small aircraft consulting firm in New Jersey, that's done a few transactions every year buying and selling a few transport category aircraft. Sounds like a fun business.

I heard it fly over today. Who knows, maybe it’ll stay in storage at ILN like 712AX but highly doubt it.

cmairplaneman wrote:

I heard it fly over today. Who knows, maybe it’ll stay in storage at ILN like 712AX but highly doubt it.

I agree. 930WE has been purchased by CAM for conversion. The 30 West press release says so. I'm sure 30 West is trying to sell 830WE and 730WE as well. All three were together at Alice Springs, and as you pointed out, 930 flew from ASP to HNL to ILN over the past two days.

wjcandee wrote:

It is definitely being converted. 30 West, hence the tail number, bought 3 former Air New Zealand 767-300 with GE engines. It took possession of one, and kind of sat on it for over a year while it tried to remarket it for passenger or freighter use. Eventually, they sold it recently to CAM. Don't know about the other two yet. 30 West is a small aircraft consulting firm in New Jersey, that's done a few transactions every year buying and selling a few transport category aircraft. Sounds like a fun business.

Sounds fun if you have a lot of Money to risk.

travaz wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

It is definitely being converted. 30 West, hence the tail number, bought 3 former Air New Zealand 767-300 with GE engines. It took possession of one, and kind of sat on it for over a year while it tried to remarket it for passenger or freighter use. Eventually, they sold it recently to CAM. Don't know about the other two yet. 30 West is a small aircraft consulting firm in New Jersey, that's done a few transactions every year buying and selling a few transport category aircraft. Sounds like a fun business.

Sounds fun if you have a lot of Money to risk.

Even more fun if you have a lot of other people's money to risk.

wjcandee wrote:

travaz wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

It is definitely being converted. 30 West, hence the tail number, bought 3 former Air New Zealand 767-300 with GE engines. It took possession of one, and kind of sat on it for over a year while it tried to remarket it for passenger or freighter use. Eventually, they sold it recently to CAM. Don't know about the other two yet. 30 West is a small aircraft consulting firm in New Jersey, that's done a few transactions every year buying and selling a few transport category aircraft. Sounds like a fun business.

Sounds fun if you have a lot of Money to risk.

Even more fun if you have a lot of other people's money to risk.

As usual you are right on the Money!

N378CX had a test flight scheduled on flight aware but looks like that won’t happen today. I suspect it’s in the NAC livery

cmairplaneman wrote:

N378CX had a test flight scheduled on flight aware but looks like that won’t happen today. I suspect it’s in the NAC livery

Actually, that one is going to Amerijet, and so has its livery. Used to be N387AM

wjcandee wrote:

cmairplaneman wrote:

N378CX had a test flight scheduled on flight aware but looks like that won’t happen today. I suspect it’s in the NAC livery

Actually, that one is going to Amerijet, and so has its livery. Used to be N387AM

Ok thank you for update

So N1511A is done with paint and positioned to CVG as of yesterday (4/25/18). Should be in-service shortly.

N1511A arrived in all white paint similar to N1399A and N1709A.

KCVGSpotter wrote:

N1511A arrived in all white paint similar to N1399A and N1709A.

Interesting. So maybe isn't going into service right away... N1709A is an anomaly, because it's not an aircraft leased to Amazon. It's a maintenance spare. But the others being painted in white is, I assume, because they're not going into service exclusively for Amazon yet...

1511A is available as a spare to Amazon right now, and is available to Amazon if they choose to expand their schedule or network.

If Amazon does not choose to utilize 1511A, I wouldn't be surprised to see Atlas use it in the existing South America network.

Next out on the schedule is N1013A, scheduled for a check flight in QPG on May 10th (Singapore).

Thanks for the info, JB. This slow and careful expansion of the Amazon network this year is one reason that I am dubious about the pesky rumours that Amazon is going to order 40-60 new 767Fs. Perhaps they have ideas for next year and beyond that could absorb more aircraft, particularly once they open their own sort operation, but it still feels like they haven't made the decision yet to do what they have to do facilities-wise and logistics-wise to run twice as many planes as they do today. I also have to wonder what happens if Trump pushes the USPS to charge more for Parcel Select, which would dramatically-change the economics of the in-house operation. Could they use Lasership or some organic delivery options to do final-mile? Yeah, probably. But if you see how much volume the USPS is handling on final-mile for Amazon in particular, it is absolutely mind-boggling. Nobody but nobody could step into those shoes without a major disruption of Amazon's delivery operation. (Remember, Amazon Air is just a supplement to what is otherwise an enormous ground line-haul network.) Even in this non-holiday period, here in NYC at least, you see large USPS trucks stuffed to the gills unloading to just one or two apartment buildings, a single office building, etc.

wjcandee wrote:

Thanks for the info, JB. This slow and careful expansion of the Amazon network this year is one reason that I am dubious about the pesky rumours that Amazon is going to order 40-60 new 767Fs.

I share your dubious feelings. Amazon seems to be doing quite well with the 30ish aircraft fleet they have now, growing to 40 by year end. More growth right now would probably be too much. More growth 2 years from now? Definitely a possibility, but still not a sure thing.

Then, of course, there is today's news to stir the pot a little:

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... order.html

JB: I agree that that is very interesting. But given how large Amazon is, and how many known and unknown projects/interests that it has, increasing one's credit line and commercial paper could really just be a prudent course of action by a smart CFO. Most companies (all?) don't buy aircraft using a credit line; they arrange long-term debt. A credit line might be used to opportunistically pick up a few used aircraft at amazing prices, and later maybe transfer them to long-term debt, but it would be odd to do aircraft (or headquarters) financing that way. Short-term debt like a credit line is used to smooth out variances in cash flow, usually. Personally, I would be thinking that they're lining up to buy a company or something that may be initially non-accretive to earnings or for which they may need 60-90 days worth of receivables financed, rather than acquiring equipment or assets. On the other hand, everybody is buying operating assets like crazy because they can be deducted immediately from their corporate taxes under the new tax bill, rather than deducted over 6-10 years, so maybe this has something to do with that.

(I get a good giggle, for example, when I read article after article about how the Class 8 over-the-road truck market has exploded since December, with orders pouring in from everywhere. Not a single one mentions the new tax law. Not one. And yet plainly that has had a significant influence over the timing of the purchases, particularly with companies aware that what is available this year might not be available next, if the Other Side gets control of Congress and starts destroying the business climate again.)

I just don't see Amazon being able to take over USPS role anytime soon it is much to big to replace. I see prime going up to 119.00 as a signal that USPS might get a higher rate for delivering for Amazon. Trump thing is all a negotiation ploy. Plus he has no love for Bezos. I also see no way Amazon is going to absorb 40 to 100 frames from Boeing. There is a thread on here that says 100 frames! The air part of Amazons strategy does nothing to solve the last mile problem.

travaz wrote:

I just don't see Amazon being able to take over USPS role anytime soon it is much to big to replace. I see prime going up to 119.00 as a signal that USPS might get a higher rate for delivering for Amazon. Trump thing is all a negotiation ploy. Plus he has no love for Bezos. I also see no way Amazon is going to absorb 40 to 100 frames from Boeing. There is a thread on here that says 100 frames! The air part of Amazons strategy does nothing to solve the last mile problem.

Agreed. We all know that Trump carves out extreme positions and then settles for the undisclosed outcome that he always wanted, like every good real estate negotiation ever. What he wants I think is for the USPS to get more $$ from Parcel Direct, particularly now that USPS has proven what a great job they do with that service. Of the hundreds and hundreds of packages I have received this way, not a one failed to arrive at my door on-time, presuming that the middleperson got it to the proper Post Office before the cutoff for delivery that day. FedEx Smartpost sucks, but only because FedEx (maybe intentionally) puts the packages on the backs of snails to move them from Smartpost Facility to Smartpost Facility, uses sloths to sort them, and hires turtles to take them to the Post Offices. Amazon's system, in contrast, moves the packages around at lightning speed and gets them to the requisite Post Office very early in the morning, turning a 5-7-day SmartPost nightmare into a two-day Prime pleasure.

Anyway, if another 60 767-300s worth of packages per day go into the in-house sort-and-delivery system, somebody has to do the last mile. And if not USPS, it's hard to see how anybody else quickly could step up to do it. (Eventually, of course, anything is possible, but quickly? That would be quite something.)

Oh, and to add maximum thread drift, having just said what I said about nobody crediting the tax law changes with driving the doubling of orders for Class 8 trucks, I did just see an article where Southwest exercised an option for 40 737Maxes and said that one reason they're getting the MAX instead of some used 737-700s is that they can deduct the whole thing today rather than over X years. There ya go.

DHL might be the solution to the last mile problem. They are testing last-mile delivery in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta, San Francisco, Washington D.C. plus some various unnamed cites this year, with more cities to come in 2019. DHL already operates similar operations all over the world, I see no reason they cannot do the same in the US, especially if Amazon becomes an important customer.

travaz wrote:

I also see no way Amazon is going to absorb 40 to 100 frames from Boeing. There is a thread on here that says 100 frames!

That statement on 100 planes is from Amazon itself, but we will have to see what happens. Constructions begins in 2019 with the setup for phase 1 supposed to be ready by the end of 2020. Phase 2 is scheduled to be completed over the 2025-2028 timeframe and it is designed to handle a fleet of well over 100 planes. Amazon must be pretty confident that they will reach these goals because they bought another 200 acres only a month ago (now at 1129 acres for the CVG site). Also, they have hired quite a few more staff for the Amazon Air headquarters in Cincinnati to specifically plan for the growth of the airline (mostly business analysts with experience in cargo airlines).

I think 2020 is going to be pushing it for phase 1, but if planning/construction continues on its current trajectory, the facilities are going to be in place for the 100 planes in a little over 2 years.

Not that I despise DHL or anything (ahem), but the only thing they will find from their tests is that they can't do anything without completely overengineering it and finding a way to make it impossible to do the core task for for a reasonable price. For them to try to do it in NYC on the same scale as the USPS -- not gonna happen.

Amazon has never said that it's going to have a fleet of 100 767-300s.

It has said that it has bought enough space and made preliminary plans such that it could ultimately have parking space at its facility for 100 "aircraft". That is a wholly-different thing. Any smart company when talking about its plans gives the outside pie-in-the-sky number and makes arrangements for that today, because if they try to expand later, the same politicians who are kissing their butts today will be trying to extort all sorts of stuff for the expansion. Plan big now, in phases, and you'll never have to ask permission. But nobody has any obligation to go past Phase I, if even that.

Next time you're in Dallas, look at the big green angular I.M. Pei building at Fountain Place (or whatever it's called now). That was originally going to be two buildings with the light refracting off of one onto the other, with the fountain in the middle. Look at the Bank of America building with the green neon (or whatever it is called now -- originally InterFirst Tower). That was going to be two buildings. Look at Cityplace, which was going to be 20-30 office buildings and apartments. They built precisely one office building. And on and on. Market cycles put an end to those plans. But the wise developers got permission to do a lot, in phases, so they wouldn't have to come back and ask permission once they were successful.

100 parking spaces is not the ultimate number. Phase 1 is 100 parking spaces for 200 daily flights on 450 acres with 2700 jobs. You don't need 1200 acres to put 100 parking positions, DHL has 60 and sorting buildings at CVG in just over 200 acres. Interpret it how you want, but my understanding is that Amazon's goal is to have a fleet of about 100 aircraft (not necessarily as 767's) for the initial build-out at CVG. At this point, they will not have space for these additional aircraft until late 2020 (essentially 20212), so new or used deliveries would not need to start for quite awhile anyways.

The initial announcement from early 2017 was actually a "conservative" estimate, it has emerged in multiple places that Amazon has been is discussions for facilities much larger than were originally announced.

Long term, the expansion capability is much much bigger (and probably way too optimistic). That plan is the full 1200 acres and 15000 employees, with a fleet in the 100's of aircraft. These numbers were not released publicly until much later, but were discussed with the State of Kentucky for the incentives. This is the "phase 2" that could ultimately be built, but is really just reserved in the scenario that the operations ever gets that big.

CVG: Thanks for the additional detail!

wjcandee wrote:

CVG: Thanks for the additional detail!

Not sure if it's relevant to our discussion, but 783AX is coming back from two weeks in paint at ROW right now (4/29). Maybe just a touch-up in the DHL paint scheme, but maybe something else?

I wonder/speculate with the sudden influx of all white aircraft if it's possibly setting up for an eventual match to the official Amazon rebranding as Prime Air being drone based and Amazon Air being aircraft operations.

wjcandee wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

CVG: Thanks for the additional detail!

Not sure if it's relevant to our discussion, but 783AX is coming back from two weeks in paint at ROW right now (4/29). Maybe just a touch-up in the DHL paint scheme, but maybe something else?

It's probably all-white, just like N797AX

If it's all-white, it's probably leaving the ABX fleet, like some of the others. Anybody got a photo?

wjcandee wrote:

If it's all-white, it's probably leaving the ABX fleet, like some of the others. Anybody got a photo?

I can confirm 783 is in a fresh DHL livery.

KCVGSpotter wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

If it's all-white, it's probably leaving the ABX fleet, like some of the others. Anybody got a photo?

I can confirm 783 is in a fresh DHL livery.

Thanks for the info!

ThePinnacleKid wrote:

I wonder/speculate with the sudden influx of all white aircraft if it's possibly setting up for an eventual match to the official Amazon rebranding as Prime Air being drone based and Amazon Air being aircraft operations.

I am sure they will eventually switch to an "Amazon Air" livery, but they were using the new name well before the Holiday video and nothing has happened yet. Given all of their other issues at the moment, it probably has a very low priority, but I would love to see some planes in an updated livery!

KCVGSpotter wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

If it's all-white, it's probably leaving the ABX fleet, like some of the others. Anybody got a photo?

I can confirm 783 is in a fresh DHL livery.

Great. It did have a blank rudder for a while, so maybe it was time...