wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:11 pm

So CNBC came out with an article today saying that Morgan Stanley estimates that Amazon Air is presently taking about 2 percent of the FedEx and UPS air parcel revenue away.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/ups-fed ... n-air.html

My favorite lines: "Morgan Stanley believes Amazon Air represents 2 percent of potential revenue lost for UPS and FedEx this year. The firm sees that revenue loss accelerating to more than 10 percent by 2025.

"We expect this drag to intensify once Amazon Air has all 40 planes in the air (and potentially 100 planes if it runs its planned air hub at capacity) and as its utilization improves to UPS/FedEx levels," Shanker said."

Wait. What? WHEN they have all 40 planes in the air???? You mean in September 2018? (The last plane came on in November, but, counting spares used by Atlas, there were basically 20 available at Atlas as of September 2018. ATSG put its last of 20 online in mid-2017.) And one additional aircraft isn't going to cause "drag to intensify".

This is what passes for financial analysis these days. At a premier firm. Yikes. So chances are this is a big wild-a$$ guess. However, it is an interesting perspective.

One would note that to be 2 percent of parcel revenue, it has to be a much bigger slice of parcel volume, given the highly-discounted rates at which Amazon parcels move on UPS and FedEx.
 
CallmeJB
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:26 pm

Reading that article, I figured the 'future tense' was a matter of financial reports. Morgan Stanley is doing market analysis of FedEx and UPS based on 3Q results. In the 3Q, there were still at least three aircraft to be delivered.

Looking forward to 4Q results, MS predicts that UPS and FedEx revenues to be impacted even more "once Amazon Air has all 40 planes in the air". As you pointed out, they're in the air now, and we'll have to wait and see how 4Q results are affected (if there's even an accurate way to measure the impact Amazon Air has on UPS and FedEx).

I think it was just financial-specific writing, not botched market awareness.
 
travaz
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:35 am

Who knows what to believe anymore. In Oct of 2017 Bloomberg puts the revenue at UPS in the 5 to 10% range.
"Amazon accounts for 5 percent to 10 percent of UPS revenue, according to analyst estimates, while FedEx has said the e-commerce giant accounts for less than 3 percent of its sales.Oct 5, 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/.../amazon-is- ... ival-fed...
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:37 am

travaz wrote:
Who knows what to believe anymore. In Oct of 2017 Bloomberg puts the revenue at UPS in the 5 to 10% range.
"Amazon accounts for 5 percent to 10 percent of UPS revenue, according to analyst estimates, while FedEx has said the e-commerce giant accounts for less than 3 percent of its sales.Oct 5, 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/.../amazon-is- ... ival-fed...


Remember they do a lot of ground, too. This was only about Amazon Air.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:51 am

wjcandee wrote:
travaz wrote:
Who knows what to believe anymore. In Oct of 2017 Bloomberg puts the revenue at UPS in the 5 to 10% range.
"Amazon accounts for 5 percent to 10 percent of UPS revenue, according to analyst estimates, while FedEx has said the e-commerce giant accounts for less than 3 percent of its sales.Oct 5, 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/.../amazon-is- ... ival-fed...


Remember they do a lot of ground, too. This was only about Amazon Air.


The other consideration is that Amazon might fly it on Amazon Air, then hand it off to UPS for the last mile. They insert a fair amount of packages at the local UPS hub for delivery. (Yes they use USPS, and AMZL as well for last mile for Amazon Air.)
 
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:45 am

N373AA will be going to ATI and entering service soon. It will be flying a UPS route but it wasn’t specified which one. In an interesting twist, because of delays with conformity and certification, the plane will operate for the foreseeable future in the scrubbed down AA livery. UPS wants the airplane now, so there’s no time to send it to paint. That should provide some interesting spotting opportunities. Also, does anyone know anything about N382CM? It was mentioned that this will be the next plane destined to ATI, but I can’t figure out if that’s a separate plane or a re-registration of N373AA once it comes out of paint. Thanks!
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:50 am

382CM will be the new number for 930WE.

373AA will be 359CM.
 
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:00 am

Never mind, I answered my own question. It appears N382CM is the former N930WE. I don’t have any intel yet on what the plans for that aircraft will be, but rumors have been swirling of Europe, China and Australia flying in the works, so we will see.
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:02 am

wjcandee wrote:
382CM will be the new number for 930WE.

373AA will be 359CM.


You must have answered while I was typing. I should have just waited, I knew someone would have an answer. Thanks, WJ!
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:07 am

My pleasure!!
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:15 am

They must have anticipated 373 going right into service, because someone at TLV painted over the green with some almost matching grey. So it doesn't have the scary, about-to-fall-apart look that usually characterizes CAM's TLV conversions. Until they go through a full strip and paint at Dean Baldwin.
 
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:13 am

[twoid][/twoid]
wjcandee wrote:
They must have anticipated 373 going right into service, because someone at TLV painted over the green with some almost matching grey. So it doesn't have the scary, about-to-fall-apart look that usually characterizes CAM's TLV conversions. Until they go through a full strip and paint at Dean Baldwin.


I guess that’s not as exciting/Frankenstein-ish though it will be something different for a bit. I’m sure some will comment on it if they see it from a terminal or roadway. Welcome to ACMI. :D
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:49 am

Acey559 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
wjcandee wrote:
They must have anticipated 373 going right into service, because someone at TLV painted over the green with some almost matching grey. So it doesn't have the scary, about-to-fall-apart look that usually characterizes CAM's TLV conversions. Until they go through a full strip and paint at Dean Baldwin.


I guess that’s not as exciting/Frankenstein-ish though it will be something different for a bit. I’m sure some will comment on it if they see it from a terminal or roadway. Welcome to ACMI. :D


I will bet you were thinking about something like this one:



That's certainly what I was thinking (hoping for?) when you mentioned the washed-down AA livery. Keepin' it classy.

Instead, it's not too bad:

Image
 
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:03 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
wjcandee wrote:
They must have anticipated 373 going right into service, because someone at TLV painted over the green with some almost matching grey. So it doesn't have the scary, about-to-fall-apart look that usually characterizes CAM's TLV conversions. Until they go through a full strip and paint at Dean Baldwin.


I guess that’s not as exciting/Frankenstein-ish though it will be something different for a bit. I’m sure some will comment on it if they see it from a terminal or roadway. Welcome to ACMI. :D


I will bet you were thinking about something like this one:



That's certainly what I was thinking (hoping for?) when you mentioned the washed-down AA livery. Keepin' it classy.

Instead, it's not too bad:

Image


Ha yes that’s more of what I had in mind. Though I did see a picture so I knew it wasn’t so bad, but it was from the right side so I wasn’t sure what the door area looked like. Thanks again for the info!
In Dixie Land I'll take my stand to live and die in Dixie.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:14 pm

I just realized that what's so perfect about Yochai's photo of 377AN is the weed(s) right there in the foreground. Really sets the tone for the image of the aircraft. Looks abandoned.

But instead, it's coming to an airport near you! Would have been so much fun to see that aircraft, in that condition, do two months of daily service for an airline. Preferably during the day, so that passengers could see it land from the windows of the passenger terminal, or pass it when queueing to depart...
 
travaz
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:18 am

The first picture reminds me of the neighbors car that had a wreck and he put the bondo on it but never quite got around to finishing it. :o :?
 
cmairplaneman
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:43 am

N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN
Glider Pilot & CVG/ILN Spotter
 
cmairplaneman
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:44 am

N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN
Glider Pilot & CVG/ILN Spotter
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:03 am

cmairplaneman wrote:
N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN

Does anyone know when it stopped flying for ABX and was stored @ILN?
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:23 am

July 2.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:17 am

MO11 wrote:
July 2.

As of September of last year it had 61000 hours and 44000 cycles. Still a few good years left in her.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:28 am

MO11 wrote:
July 2.


That's what I have, too.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:31 am

cmairplaneman wrote:
N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN


Huh. Still no pending number change or indication of export. But the records often trail reality.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:18 am

cmairplaneman wrote:
N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN


Didn't make it very far. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N78 ... /KILN/KILN

Guess it wanted to hang around the US a little longer.
 
DL757NYC
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:19 am

wjcandee wrote:
N1487A is the final Altas/Titan/Andromeda 767-300 conversion relating to the Amazon assignment. It has been at TLV since 12/5/18.

It did a 2.5-hour test flight on Saturday 10/6/18, so seems to be getting close to completion.

Also on Saturday, 10/6/18, IAI/Bedek/MexicanaMRO completed conversion of N765CK, Connie's latest 767-300 conversion (and the 4th one completed on the MexicanaMRO line). The MexicanaMRO shop, seems to be getting faster with every conversion. The initial conversion for Connie took a typical amount of time. The second one was 4.5 months. The third was 4.25 months. This one took 3.66 months. Obviously, things like backlog and condition of airframe, etc., enter into it, but it is interesting to see that the MexicanaMRO line (which can only put one 767-300 in the hangar at a time) seems to be working hard and getting better at accomplishing the IAI/Bedek conversion.


They also might be able to put more worker on it or staff around the clock shifts. The pay scale in Mexico is way less than Israel or Germany.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:47 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
N1487A is the final Altas/Titan/Andromeda 767-300 conversion relating to the Amazon assignment. It has been at TLV since 12/5/18.

It did a 2.5-hour test flight on Saturday 10/6/18, so seems to be getting close to completion.

Also on Saturday, 10/6/18, IAI/Bedek/MexicanaMRO completed conversion of N765CK, Connie's latest 767-300 conversion (and the 4th one completed on the MexicanaMRO line). The MexicanaMRO shop, seems to be getting faster with every conversion. The initial conversion for Connie took a typical amount of time. The second one was 4.5 months. The third was 4.25 months. This one took 3.66 months. Obviously, things like backlog and condition of airframe, etc., enter into it, but it is interesting to see that the MexicanaMRO line (which can only put one 767-300 in the hangar at a time) seems to be working hard and getting better at accomplishing the IAI/Bedek conversion.


They also might be able to put more worker on it or staff around the clock shifts. The pay scale in Mexico is way less than Israel or Germany.


Skyliner reports Connie got another conversion this week, LN 568 registered 739DH. Is this really his 9th 763?
The last of the famous international playboys
 
cmairplaneman
Posts: 98
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:00 pm

wjcandee wrote:
cmairplaneman wrote:
N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN


Didn't make it very far. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N78 ... /KILN/KILN

Guess it wanted to hang around the US a little longer.



That’s what I was going to say... wonder what happened with it
Glider Pilot & CVG/ILN Spotter
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:26 pm

cmairplaneman wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
cmairplaneman wrote:
N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN


Didn't make it very far. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N78 ... /KILN/KILN

Guess it wanted to hang around the US a little longer.



That’s what I was going to say... wonder what happened with it

Dunno, but looking at the flight log, it leveled off at 29000 feet. Looks like they made the decision to turn around right after that (that's the dip in airspeed). Bets are something broke, try again later!
The last of the famous international playboys
 
wjcandee
Posts: 7099
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Re: Amazon Fleet Growth - 2018

Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:57 am

wjcandee wrote:
cmairplaneman wrote:
N787AX is scheduled to depart ILN for SNN


Didn't make it very far. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N78 ... /KILN/KILN

Guess it wanted to hang around the US a little longer.


Looks like it's on the way again tonight, 9/7/18. Has made it a little further as of this writing.

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