Hi guys, a big update what to expect from LOT in 2018, also if a mod could change the thread title to LOT News I would be thankful.

Fleet Changes

B787-9 - three deliveries planned this year starting March, increasing capacity to ORD/JFK/YYZ
E195 - six deliveries planned from April to June, these will be used planes
B737 MAX 8 - three more will be delivered this year with the last one in 2019

Routes

WAW-DME - from 03JUN new route x 6 weekly
WAW-KRK - from 29MAR increase to x8 daily
WAW-BUD - from 25MAR increase to x5 daily
WAW-PRG - from 03MAY increase to x5 daily
WAW-DBV - from 03MAY seasonal x5 weekly
WAW-SIN - from 15MAY resumes x4 weekly
WAW-KUN - from 21MAY new route x6 weekly
WAW-NUE - from 07MAY new route x2 daily
WAW-OSL - from 25MAR resumes x2 daily

RZE-TLV - from 11MAR new route x1 weekly
RZE-EWR - from 29APR resumes x1 weekly

SZY-LWO - from 27MAR new route x2 weekly

KRK-BUD - from 28APR new route x6 weekly
KRK-ORD - from 05JUL increase to x2 weekly

BUD-ORD - from 05MAY new route x2 weekly
BUD-JFK - from 03MAY new route x4 weekly

Warsaw Airport

Despite the Central Airport being decided as the replacement for Warsaw Chopin, the current airport is going to expand before being closed. This is due to a very high growth rate at the airport which last year was 22% as Warsaw overtook Prague for the first time. The South pier and non-shengen area are going to be expanded and 40 additional aircraft parking bays will be added with the airport planning to increase capacity from 38 to 50 operations per hour. Last year 25% of all passengers flying via Warsaw Chopin were transit passengers.

I will update this post in case I have missed something.

Milka

LO will also increase ZAG to double daily and BEG to 11 weekly. Belgrade seems to be performing really well for them with strong O&D demand and transfer passengers mostly continuing onto Lot's domestic network but also the Baltics, Chicago and Toronto.

As for WAW, could you tell me where the location of the Central Airport will be? Can't they just use Modlin as the new Warsaw airport?

2X weekly BUD-ORD but only 1X weekly KRK-ORD Ughhhh!! Anyways I'm booked for June ORD-WAW then will be driving on the Polish autobahn to Krakow!

Blerg wrote:

LO will also increase ZAG to double daily and BEG to 11 weekly. Belgrade seems to be performing really well for them with strong O&D demand and transfer passengers mostly continuing onto Lot's domestic network but also the Baltics, Chicago and Toronto.

As for WAW, could you tell me where the location of the Central Airport will be? Can't they just use Modlin as the new Warsaw airport?

Airport will be located where the small town of Baranow is, along the A2 roadway between Warsaw and Lodz. I think it's a bad idea, especially after all the investment into WAW (new terminal, railroad tunnel, hotels), LCJ, and even RMO. WMI won't close, and it'll make FR stronger there as both airports will now be far from the Warsaw city center, even though the new airport is supposed to have a high-speed rail link. But the current government wants the new airport badly, as they believe it can rival a FRA, MUC, etc...

Will the new 787-9's feature a new economy class and business class cabin?

They can already build upon the current infrastructure of the Baranow airport , I mean the reviews are good

https://www.google.de/maps/place/L%C4%8 ... 68!9m1!1b1

BOEING777EK wrote:

Will the new 787-9's feature a new economy class and business class cabin?

There will be some changes:
- the business seats will be the same with 2-2-2 configuration, but the first row will have the monitors on the bulkhead instead of the armrests;
- premium economy will have an increased seat pitch from 38 to 42" and a dedicated lavatory;
- the economy seats will be new Zodiak Z300 with bigger screens (10,6 vs 8,9").

http://www.pasazer.com/news/36856/wieksze,dreamlinery,lot,u,poleca,glownie,do,ameryki.html

I guess a new aiport is inevitable as Chopin is quite boxed in and I don't see any obvious way to expand it. If they really go for Baranowo I hope that the new airport will have better and faster public transport access, like a high speed train from the city center, preferably extended to Lodz on the other side as well.

I'm glad LOT is expanding, I've always liked them, I just hope it's sustainable. I'm actually flying LOT in about three weeks, PRG-WAW-LCA.

ORD, YYZ, and JFK living on leakage from states (primarily one) between IL and NY.

As our good friend would say, “DL could print money from my airport to WAW, but DL will run it from ATL and bleed BitCoins!”

_AA_777_MAN wrote:

2X weekly BUD-ORD but only 1X weekly KRK-ORD Ughhhh!! Anyways I'm booked for June ORD-WAW then will be driving on the Polish autobahn to Krakow!

Take the shiny new polish fast train Pendolino... much better than driving...

hoya wrote:

Blerg wrote:

LO will also increase ZAG to double daily and BEG to 11 weekly. Belgrade seems to be performing really well for them with strong O&D demand and transfer passengers mostly continuing onto Lot's domestic network but also the Baltics, Chicago and Toronto.

As for WAW, could you tell me where the location of the Central Airport will be? Can't they just use Modlin as the new Warsaw airport?

Airport will be located where the small town of Baranow is, along the A2 roadway between Warsaw and Lodz. I think it's a bad idea, especially after all the investment into WAW (new terminal, railroad tunnel, hotels), LCJ, and even RMO. WMI won't close, and it'll make FR stronger there as both airports will now be far from the Warsaw city center, even though the new airport is supposed to have a high-speed rail link. But the current government wants the new airport badly, as they believe it can rival a FRA, MUC, etc...

Thanks for the explanation. I think they can't really compete with MUC and FRA but they should concentrate on outperforming Vienna. It won't be easy with VIE slashing its charges and Wizz Air expanding there but LO will have as many widebody aircraft as OS. LO's geographical location is ideal to offer connections from Europe to Asia and given their success at ICN it seems this model is working for them.
On top of that, WAW's terminal is much more pleasant than the narrow and claustrophobic one at VIE (the new one).

How is LO doing in terms of finances? Are they still losing money?

Milka wrote:

Despite the Central Airport being decided as the replacement for Warsaw Chopin, the current airport is going to expand before being closed.

Really? A new airport? It doesn't seem like that long ago that they built the new terminal at WAW.

mke717spotter wrote:

Milka wrote:

Despite the Central Airport being decided as the replacement for Warsaw Chopin, the current airport is going to expand before being closed.

Really? A new airport? It doesn't seem like that long ago that they built the new terminal at WAW.

Yes that is correct, however the existing Airport was rebuilt and planned in a time when the growth rate was around 5-7% and the financial crisis had just subsided. The last two years saw the airport grow at a significantly faster pace, 14.5% in 2016 and 22% in 2017. Couple this with LOT's ambitious expansion plans and you have a already pretty crowded airport quickly filling up.

The non-shengen area of the airport is packed and most of the gate area's were not designed to handle wide bodies, one of the reasons Emirates has not received permission to operate the A380 into Warsaw is because it would take up two non-shengen gates at one time, something the airport cant spare. LOT is planning on taking three 789 this year which will make that part of the airport even more busy. If you look at Chopin Airport on google maps, there is no way of adding a third runway, add to that intersecting runways and a night curfew and you leave very little room for growth.

The reason the gov wants to choose Baranow as the location of the new Centralny Port Lotniczy (CPL), is because it's located between Warsaw and Poland's third largest city Lodz near the main highway running across the country. However, the location has its problems, it is neither close to the city centre of Warsaw or Lodz, both cities have airports that would need to be closed and the current highway has already too much traffic and new rail links built. The project is not set in stone yet and there are bound to be many changes still. It would be wiser if they either expanded Modlin or built the CPL closer to Warsaw and just linked the new Airport via high speed train to Lodz's brand new main train station.

The new airport will take up to 10 years to complete so there are still plans to expand Chopin even though it is going to be shut down once the new location is operating. The government plans to turn Chopin into a business 'city' so they hope they will recoup money being spent. In 10 years Chopin is going to be clogged and the airport authority may impose restrictions. If LOT is to continue its expansion there is no other way but to build a new airport. They plan to double their fleet in 10 years and so Chopin could not handle it.

WROORD wrote:

The new airport will take up to 10 years to complete so there are still plans to expand Chopin even though it is going to be shut down once the new location is operating. The government plans to turn Chopin into a business 'city' so they hope they will recoup money being spent. In 10 years Chopin is going to be clogged and the airport authority may impose restrictions. If LOT is to continue its expansion there is no other way but to build a new airport. They plan to double their fleet in 10 years and so Chopin could not handle it.

This all assumes that LO's growth will be successful. It's an extremely ambitious growth plan, though it seems to be doing well so far, but LO is still owned by the government. it wasn't that long ago where the Polish government provided aid to LO (for which the EU punished LO) and was looking for buyers - and no one was interested. Also assumes that LH group and other airlines in the region won't really do anything to counter LO. To base your grandiose airport plan on the success of a single airline is extremely risky.

hoya wrote:

This all assumes that LO's growth will be successful. It's an extremely ambitious growth plan, though it seems to be doing well so far, but LO is still owned by the government. it wasn't that long ago where the Polish government provided aid to LO (for which the EU punished LO) and was looking for buyers - and no one was interested. Also assumes that LH group and other airlines in the region won't really do anything to counter LO. To base your grandiose airport plan on the success of a single airline is extremely risky.

The new airport is necessary whether LOT's ambitious growth plans come to fruition or not. Not being bought actually saved LOT, had it been acquired by Lufthansa or similar it would have been turned into a feeder airline with no long haul. The bottom line is that Chopin has a limited capability to expand which will be exhausted sooner rather than later. Budapest airport continues to grow year on year without a flag carrier being present and the same case will apply to Chopin. Polish people fly more and more whilst the country is becoming a tourist hotspot so capacity will be needed one way or another. As Chopin is limited and Modlin badly situated the only solution is a new airport.

Milka

Effective 01.06 LOT will launch Warsaw-Skopje and Warsaw-Podgorica. Both will be served 6x weekly and are meant to be summer only. At least for now.

LO already flew to Podgorica last summer, Skopje is a new destination.

Johner wrote:

Effective 01.06 LOT will launch Warsaw-Skopje and Warsaw-Podgorica. Both will be served 6x weekly and are meant to be summer only. At least for now.

Podgorica was launched last year as a seasonal route and will return this summer.

FYI: last years Podgorica timings

eff 17JUN17 Warsaw – Podgorica 1 weekly until 14OCT17
LO583 WAW1400 – 1555TGD E95 6
LO584 TGD1635 – 1835WAW E95 6

Milka

Milka wrote:

RZE-EWR - from 29APR resumes x1 weekly

Isn't it a bit odd? Lounching major international route from a tiny airport at the far end of Poland, away from major centers? What is the idea here?

EL-AL wrote:

Isn't it a bit odd? Lounching major international route from a tiny airport at the far end of Poland, away from major centers? What is the idea here?

Indeed the airport is tiny and the town is not that big either, however Rzeszow is home to the Dolina Lotnicza (Aviation Valley). There are 14 large international companies in the Valley, including Pratt Whitney, MTU Aero Engines, the German aircraft engine manufacturer, and Safran, as well as about 20 medium-size companies. Further Aviation related companies such as Rolls-Royce are planning to open plants there. Therefore, there is enough demand for a direct service to the USA.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff4b32ce-90a ... 28cb934b78

Milka

EL-AL wrote:

Milka wrote:

Hi guys, a big update what to expect from LOT in 2018, also if a mod could change the thread title to LOT News I would be thankful.

RZE-EWR - from 29APR resumes x1 weekly

Isn't it a bit odd? Lounching major international route from a tiny airport at the far end of Poland, away from major centers? What is the idea here?

In addition to the Aviation Valley already outlined, there was a lot of emigration form the SW corner of Poland to the US which helps fills the plane with VFR traffic, albeit at low yields. If I recall, this isn't the first time LOT flies between RZE and NYC.

RZE-EWR is for VFR traffic mostly. Previously, hardly any seats were sold in Business Class. Now, with two "premium" cabins, it's going to be even tougher. Yields are going to be poor on this route.

I struggle to believe that LOT would relaunch the route without some form of backing from companies in the Aviation Valley. The route didn't work out before so going in with the same game plan would be outright dumb.

Milka wrote:

The new airport is necessary whether LOT's ambitious growth plans come to fruition or not. Not being bought actually saved LOT, had it been acquired by Lufthansa or similar it would have been turned into a feeder airline with no long haul. The bottom line is that Chopin has a limited capability to expand which will be exhausted sooner rather than later. Budapest airport continues to grow year on year without a flag carrier being present and the same case will apply to Chopin. Polish people fly more and more whilst the country is becoming a tourist hotspot so capacity will be needed one way or another. As Chopin is limited and Modlin badly situated the only solution is a new airport.

Milka

I'm simply not convinced it's necessary. LGW has a single runway and has way more passengers and aircraft movements. I believe that the new airport is a vanity project for the current government. WAW has no room to grow? How about eliminating the Dzialki Ogrodowe just west of runway 33? Or building a new terminal, or expanding the current one, further north closer to the maintenance area? Building a new airport out in Baranow will likely hurt LO, in that the airport will be far from the city center, making FR that much more competitive at WMI, and someone will have to shoulder the costs of a new airport via fees and so on (LO). And Poland has something that Hungary doesn't have - multiple regional airports. Yes, Poles are traveling more and more, hence why airports like WRO, POZ, KTW, KRK, RZE, GDN, etc continue to see growth. Hungary just basically has BUD. The fact LO now flies transatlantic again from RZE and KRK shows how decentralized the aviation market is in Poland. Otherwise, why did Poland invest so heavily into WAW and all the other regional airports, if the plans are now to get everything centralized into one big new airport? Oh, and the EU will not be providing any funds for the new airport. It will all have to be funded by the Polish government.

Milka wrote:

I struggle to believe that LOT would relaunch the route without some form of backing from companies in the Aviation Valley. The route didn't work out before so going in with the same game plan would be outright dumb.

Believe me, 99% of Aviation Valley companies have corporate contracts with Lufthansa and United through their JV. I used to work at one of major business travel industry providers and Lufthansa rep boasted about this during his quarterly presentations. I'm sure given Lufthansa's position, nothing's changed.

There is a reason RZE-MUC is going twice daily this summer.

hoya wrote:

I'm simply not convinced it's necessary. LGW has a single runway and has way more passengers and aircraft movements. I believe that the new airport is a vanity project for the current government. WAW has no room to grow? How about eliminating the Dzialki Ogrodowe just west of runway 33? Or building a new terminal, or expanding the current one, further north closer to the maintenance area? Building a new airport out in Baranow will likely hurt LO, in that the airport will be far from the city center, making FR that much more competitive at WMI, and someone will have to shoulder the costs of a new airport via fees and so on (LO). And Poland has something that Hungary doesn't have - multiple regional airports. Yes, Poles are traveling more and more, hence why airports like WRO, POZ, KTW, KRK, RZE, GDN, etc continue to see growth. Hungary just basically has BUD. The fact LO now flies transatlantic again from RZE and KRK shows how decentralized the aviation market is in Poland. Otherwise, why did Poland invest so heavily into WAW and all the other regional airports, if the plans are now to get everything centralized into one big new airport? Oh, and the EU will not be providing any funds for the new airport. It will all have to be funded by the Polish government.

These are all valid points, but they do not change the fact that Warsaw Chopin is restricted in its growth. No matter how much you expand the terminals or even if you build another runway, there still is finite room around the airport and the Dzialki Ogrodowe are a pain in the ass to acquire. Add to that the night curfew and NIMBYs' surrounding the airport and you have very limited room to expand. I can see Warsaw Airport as some type of London City however the current gov wants to close it whatever may be. The location of the CPL has to be somewhere between Warsaw and Lodz, the capital and third largest city, but closer to Warsaw in my opinion. Also 25% of all passengers going through Chopin in 2017 were transit passengers and increasing each year. The EU is in a spat with the current gov but that wont prevent the EU funding the new airport as most major infrastructure projects in Poland are built by European construction companies. It is a vanity project but it is also necessary as no matter what you do, Chopin will run out of room in the near future.

Another new route announced - WAW-BLL-WAW effective july, 12xweekly using Embraer170s

Johner wrote:

Another new route announced - WAW-BLL-WAW effective july, 12xweekly using Embraer170s

They keep going very strong the last two years. More new routes as they take deliveries of new aircraft..

hoya wrote:

WROORD wrote:

The new airport will take up to 10 years to complete so there are still plans to expand Chopin even though it is going to be shut down once the new location is operating. The government plans to turn Chopin into a business 'city' so they hope they will recoup money being spent. In 10 years Chopin is going to be clogged and the airport authority may impose restrictions. If LOT is to continue its expansion there is no other way but to build a new airport. They plan to double their fleet in 10 years and so Chopin could not handle it.

This all assumes that LO's growth will be successful. It's an extremely ambitious growth plan, though it seems to be doing well so far, but LO is still owned by the government. it wasn't that long ago where the Polish government provided aid to LO (for which the EU punished LO) and was looking for buyers - and no one was interested. Also assumes that LH group and other airlines in the region won't really do anything to counter LO. To base your grandiose airport plan on the success of a single airline is extremely risky.

First of all I am not sure what you mean by "your grandiose" i.e who is "your". Second If Polish government wants to build a new airport they must see other reasons than the ones you state. Besides when Berlin came out with the plans for the new airport everyone was raving now the same people say WAW should not do it? By what standard or whose decree? They want to build it let them build it.

When you look at the new Central Airport from a purely political perspective it seems like a grandiose mega project that only dictatorships like China or Turkey would undertake. But if you look at it from a aviation enthusiast point of view, especially one who travels frequently through WAW (like me) you understand that the new airport is necessary and will be built sooner or later.

Some new increases in Ukraine-

WAW-OZH (Zaporizhia) new route, 6x weekly, effective 2JUL
WAW-IEV (Kiev-Zhuliany) increase 1x to 2x daily, effective 2AUG

These are in addition to
WAW-HRK (Charkiv) increasing 8x to 11x weekly (relative to S17)

That brings Kiev to 4 daily and Ukraine to 84 weekly (12 daily flights) this summer. A few smaller cities are still unserved..



http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=w:2,+waw-OZH,+waw-hrk,+waw-ods,+waw-kbp,+waw-iev,+waw-lwo,+c:yellow,+ifo,+cwc,+dnk,+KHE,+vin&MS=bm&PM=b:disc7%2b%22%25t%25+%28N%22&DU=mi

LOT is adding frequencies and destinations left and right. Where's all this capacity coming from? Have they added new Embraers?

They will, see the first post.

Johner wrote:

They will, see the first post.

I know about those six but it seems like they will need a lot more given how many new destinations and frequencies they are adding.

Blerg wrote:

Johner wrote:

They will, see the first post.

I know about those six but it seems like they will need a lot more given how many new destinations and frequencies they are adding.

The new MAXs are displacing some of the 737s they've used on the "major" European routes.

EDIT: Fittingly, I'm on the bus to LHR to board LO282!

pdp wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Johner wrote:

They will, see the first post.

I know about those six but it seems like they will need a lot more given how many new destinations and frequencies they are adding.

The new MAXs are displacing some of the 737s they've used on the "major" European routes.

EDIT: Fittingly, I'm on the bus to LHR to board LO282!

And some additional capacity will be provided by Nordica

Johner wrote:

pdp wrote:

Blerg wrote:

I know about those six but it seems like they will need a lot more given how many new destinations and frequencies they are adding.

The new MAXs are displacing some of the 737s they've used on the "major" European routes.

EDIT: Fittingly, I'm on the bus to LHR to board LO282!

And some additional capacity will be provided by Nordica

Does this mean the Nordia CRJs will be repainted into an ALL-LOT livery, or will it be like the Q400s and they will fly around during in whatever livery they have? Certainly one of the more diverse fleets in Europe!

pdp wrote:

Does this mean the Nordia CRJs will be repainted into an ALL-LOT livery, or will it be like the Q400s and they will fly around during in whatever livery they have? Certainly one of the more diverse fleets in Europe!

I think no.
Nordica networks are complex with LOT network and they are changing actual aircraft in operation a lot. A/c are moving TLL-ARN-WAW where TLL-ARN is being operated as Nordica flight and then ARN-WAW as LOT flight - and there more routings like that, mixing TLL-GOT, TLL-VNO with Nordica routes.

Also, Nordica is marketing all their flights as LO flights in distribution system.

Milka wrote:

When you look at the new Central Airport from a purely political perspective it seems like a grandiose mega project that only dictatorships like China or Turkey would undertake. But if you look at it from a aviation enthusiast point of view, especially one who travels frequently through WAW (like me) you understand that the new airport is necessary and will be built sooner or later.

The choice is not between the new airport and no new capacity. WAW needs new capacity and this can be built. The explanation provided above for the new airport is that it is easier to grow far from the city. This may be, but it comes at a cost of long new fast train and road connections, longer travel times for most users, and the lost value of the abandoned facilities at WAW. I'm not so sure that the trouble of expanding capacity of road and rail connections is not as great as expanding the existing WAW.
There is space for a second parallel runway next to 15/33, and I'd argue there's a possibility of building a third parallel runway south of the S2 road, near the villages Jaworowa and Davidy. Just look at Schiphol to see what's possible.
The challenge is not technical but political, since any expansion at WAW will be resisted by the local population.

And another new route, Warsaw - Hanover :

From 4/06/2018:

LO 361 Warsaw 8:15 - 10:00 Hanover (123456-)
LO 362 Hanover 10:35 - 12:15 Warsaw (123456-)

LO 363 Warsaw 17:30 - 19:15 Hanover (12345-7)
LO 364 Hanover 19:55 - 21:35 Warsaw (12345-7)

Embraer 170s will be used.

LOT and Chopin Airport Statistics 2017

LOT Total Passengers Carried
2018 - 8.800.000 (target)
2017 - 6.800.000 (+25%)
2016 - 5.400.000
2015 - 4.300.000

LOT Transit Passengers 2017 - 50%

LOT Chopin Market Share 2017
Total Passengers - 43%
Regular flights - 50%

LOT 2020 Targets
Total Passengers carried - 10.000.000+
Poland Market Share - 25%
Total Fleet - 70 planes
Dreamliner fleet - 16 minimum

Chopin Airport Total Passengers
2017 15,752,000 (+22,7%)
2016 12,835,560 (+14.5%)
2015 11,206,700 (+5.8%)

Chopin Most Popular International Routes 2017 (departures only)
1 - London 460.000
2 - Paris 283.000
3 - Frankfurt 272.000

Chopin Most Popular Domestic Routes 2017 (departures only)
1 - Wroclaw 262.000
2 - Gdansk 260.000
3 - Cracow 178.000

Sources:
http://www.pasazer.com/news/37799/lotni ... 017,r.html
https://www.pb.pl/lot-zarzadzil-cala-na-przod-905754

Bonus Info: Emirates is ready to schedule the A380 into Warsaw as soon as Chopin prepares the infrastructure.

Is it known what routes the 787-8s will be used once LOT receives its 787-9s?

LOT has taken delivery of its first Boeing 787-9 SP-LSA.
It will be used on North American routes from Warsaw and to Seoul.
Two more 787-9 to come this year.

Blerg wrote:

LOT is adding frequencies and destinations left and right. Where's all this capacity coming from? Have they added new Embraers?

LOT will introduce 6 former Azul Embraer 195 in the coming months.

PlaneHunter wrote:

Blerg wrote:

LOT is adding frequencies and destinations left and right. Where's all this capacity coming from? Have they added new Embraers?

LOT will introduce 6 former Azul Embraer 195 in the coming months.

Thank you.

In other news, LO will increase BEG to 12 weekly flights in stead of the previously announced 11.

And in another news there is a risk of Lot employee strike - in 1st week of May. Unions are unhappy with the salary structure, and don't like the policy of hiring self-employed stuff.
CEO says it will not happen.
More here in Polish - but google translate works pretty well: https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/za ... mi/9kk0gtl

According to polish news, 788 flying from Cancun had engine failure in flight and landed in NY. Wonder if RR issues just caught up with LOT.

PixelPilot wrote:

According to polish news, 788 flying from Cancun had engine failure in flight and landed in NY. Wonder if RR issues just caught up with LOT.

Based on a comment on polish forum looks like you are correct - it's waiting for engine replacement.

PixelPilot wrote:

According to polish news, 788 flying from Cancun had engine failure in flight and landed in NY. Wonder if RR issues just caught up with LOT.

Strangely there is no report of it on Avherald