A350OZ wrote:JBusworth wrote:[
I can see QF having daily flights out of Perth to LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM as you suggest. They would need to have seamless east coast connections to be entirely successful.
I think we are getting carried away here as what that PER mini-hub is about to achieve. It will be the bridge to Europe due to the proximity and current aircraft range limitations. Once this is overcome, and QF can fly non-stop MEL/SYD-Europe, the PER mini-hub will be history. By the same logic, flights to the likes of BOM or CPT will not happen form PER, at least not on QF. They will fly them from the East Coast or not at all.
Another factor is aircraft: to operate the scissor hub efficiently, the planes going out must also be the ones coming in. Realistically, that's only 3 flights (from SYD, MEL, BNE), continuing to 3 destinations (LHR, FRA, CDG). I just do not see anything beyond that.
Lastly, airport infrastructure: for a seamless hub to work, all those planes must arrive and depart around the same time from the same terminal. That does not happen anytime soon, before QF moves all ops to the Intl side.
I do agree with you in principle with the current setup and fleet plans ( CDG/FRA if they happen won't until at least 2019 with new 789s), however when the time comes that QF fly direct to Europe from the East, PER should still maintain their services.
Airport infrastructure is due to be upgraded around 2023 when the direct flights might start, but by that time the market may have matured; and who knows if the EK alliance will still exist.
Longer term there would still be scope for PER-CPT/JNB/NBO as well as the proposed LHR/CDG/FRA services. They won't be flying east coast to Europe non-stop, so there would still be a market for this secondary traffic through a mini-hub. And I would think customers from SA and WA won't want to be backtracking and can help feed the flights along with their Eastern cousins.
The subcontinent is an interesting one, as SEA (SIN/KUL/BKK) are the main transit points along with recent direct services; however there could be significant growth still to come as the emergent middle class whets their appetite for travel. QF could play a role with having that traffic filter through PER to 3 or 4 key cities on the sub continent (think CMB/DEL/BOM/HYD)
Heck- as a way out there idea, perhaps JQ gets in on the act ex PER and uses the dreamliners in conjunction with an Indian Domestic network.
QF doesn't have as many regulatory hiccups when it comes to PER ( compared to redQ in SIN, HKG Jetstar); and in fact are able to use their brand recognition and power as leverage with the AU government to get them to invest.
It would be much cheaper to operate this kind of thing ex Asia, but if LHR goes well and subsequent flights follow; this could be the start of something much bigger for PER.
Think Widebodies from SYD/MEL/BNE/ADL/AKL/CHC and regular dailies ex DRW/CBR/OOL/CNS/TSV/NTL using PER as their key connecting point to Africa, Europe and the Subcontinent.
- Almost like a mini EK. That could be a reality in 10years.... subject to lots of $$ and other challenges of course!
