LovePrunesAnet wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

Now that we are nearing the next schedule extension (Feb 15) does anyone have any predictions. I am always curious to see what people predict vs what happens.

A few on here rooting for XNA
say XNA-HNL. probably have to wait behind LIT-XNA to start first, however. On the new A380 fleet.

Just go big. HNL-XNA for each of their first routes.

jbmitt wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

On new cities FAT or MSN seems most likely (but not very likely). For actual announcements I would guess PAE routes, LAX-EWR, CVG-DEN, IND-BNA*, LAX-CMH.

Well, these are just my hopes, I don't really have an idea what they will add.

RDU-RSW, CLT-DEN, LAX-SEA, and CVG-MCO may be farther out possibilities. BZN, JAC, and RAP would be nice DEN feeders, but are probably too small and/or seasonal for WN.

*IND-BNA was previously stated one of the top three requested destinations from WN's BNA passengers.

Just to challenge you.. why would WN fly to BZN and not BIL? BIL is the larger city (largest in MT) and has more business ties, but BZN has more tourism, MSU and the tech scene.

I actually don't know, I just assumed it was a larger market. At first glance it does seem to be, but is probably mostly seasonal and inbound. Its probably analogous to EYW for WN.
What about JAC, UA is at $500+ fares for the short DEN-JAC flight in the Spring/Summer, F9 serves it, but at a more reasonable price I bet ther's enough demand for WN to consider it. Neither airport might fit in their strategy though.

Jshank83 wrote:

I am going to ask you to clean this up a bit by asking this question. We know they aren't adding all those suggestions in the next update, so let's say WN can only add 5 new routes this update. What 5 do you think they would be? Not routes they might add a year or 3 from now. Top 5 most likely routes you think they would add in the update next week.

5 routes I could see being announced in the next update are MDW-RIC, CVG-TPA, HOU-SMF, LAX-SEA, and OAK-PHL.

WN used to serve PHL nonstop from OAK 9 years ago, but WN dropped PHL-OAK nonstop service during the economic downturn. WN could bring back OAK-PHL nonstop service in order to better compete against AS SFO-PHL nonstop service.

Other possible adds out of the San Francisco Bay Area on WN include OAK-BOS, OAK-FLL, OAK-RDU, OAK-IAD, SJC-RDU, and SJC-IAD.

If Southwest announces CVG-TPA nonstop service next week, WN could possibly start CVG-TPA nonstop service earlier than August 7th since the demand for additional CVG-TPA nonstop service is really there with DL only doing 1 daily nonstop between CVG and TPA, with F9 doing CVG-TPA on a less-than-daily basis in Summer 2018, and with demand exceeding the number of seats available on the DL CVG-TPA nonstops.

With Southwest, there are so many routes you would love to see. I wish Southwest was #1 in Spokane, Washington. They draw a lot of passengers from nearby Pasco / Tri - Cities area.

For a frequent BNA user, I would love to see IND, PDX, and either SJC/SMF from Nashville.

dc10lover wrote:

With Southwest, there are so many routes you would love to see. I wish Southwest was #1 in Spokane, Washington. They draw a lot of passengers from nearby Pasco / Tri - Cities area.

Southwest did drop GEG-SEA, GEG-PDX, and GEG-SLC nonstop service several years ago, but Southwest did add nonstop service to MDW (seasonal), DEN, PHX, SMF and SAN (seasonal) out of GEG. WN will also be starting GEG-SJC nonstop service on April 8th.

Southwest will probably never serve SEA nonstop again from GEG since AS still has nonstop service to SEA from GEG, since DL now has a hub at SEA, and since DL now has nonstop service to SEA from GEG.

Southwest could possibly bring back GEG-PDX nonstop service if there is enough O&D demand for GEG-PDX nonstop service on WN since there is no US3 hub at PDX, since PDX is a larger WN station than SEA is, and since AS is currently the only airline to serve PDX nonstop from GEG. However, Southwest is unlikely to bring back GEG-PDX nonstop service since there is probably not enough O&D demand for Southwest to bring back GEG-PDX nonstop service and since all of the destinations that WN currently serves nonstop from GEG also already have nonstop service out of PDX on WN.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

What domestic airport will Southwest serve next FAT, XNA, OR ANC?

Xna is NOT going to happen.
There are some local boosters on here that are sure rooting for it or thinking it will, but it ain't going to happen.
Read up thread for why I say that. If you STILL don't agree then if for no other reason than it's too much airplane...too many seats. Southwest comes into an airport and usually connects it to 2 to 4 other cities on the southeast map with flights a few times a day.

Say on the conservative side they started serving XNA with 5 or 6 flights a day somewhere...that's 1000 new seats on 737s that are seats dumped into the XNA market, a market with a total of ZERO Mainline flights ANYWHERE on US3 aircraft, that oh by the way only have half the capacity into XNA of any aircraft WN would use. If there was more demand the US3 would fly bigger planes or greater frequency.

WN is NOT HAPPENING in XNA. everyone who wants to fly Southwest will keep driving.

Your hate warms my heart in the chilly winter.

Recent economic outlooks states that Northwest Arkansas needs 90,000 residential units in the next 3 to 5 years. At just two people per unit, that puts the population around 750K. The jobs being created are engineers, doctors, ect. To continue to ignore one of the fastest growing and top performing economic regions in the country under the assumption that they continue to drive two hrs to Tulsa is financial malfeasance. This argument in less than a decade, will be like you saying folks in Tulsa should drive to OKC for all WN flights.

WN should stick XNA in between two major markets that need more frequencies or fill the excess capacity
needed to keep the frequencies for no plane change stops that they have done for years and grow from there. But, yeah, as long as XNA is one of the top 10 most expensive airports in the country, folks will drive elsewhere. Just offering dozens of connecting markets for sub $400 fares would do wonders at XNA. If XNA is right and there is at least a 20% bleed to other airports due to high fares and there was 700,000 enplanements in 2017, that's 140,000 enplanements to possibly be had just in 2018 and it's growing every day.

For those unfamiliar with what's happening in Northwest Arkansas:

http://www.nwacouncil.org/our-regions-ranking/

WaywardMemphian wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

What domestic airport will Southwest serve next FAT, XNA, OR ANC?

Xna is NOT going to happen.
There are some local boosters on here that are sure rooting for it or thinking it will, but it ain't going to happen.
Read up thread for why I say that. If you STILL don't agree then if for no other reason than it's too much airplane...too many seats. Southwest comes into an airport and usually connects it to 2 to 4 other cities on the southeast map with flights a few times a day.

Say on the conservative side they started serving XNA with 5 or 6 flights a day somewhere...that's 1000 new seats on 737s that are seats dumped into the XNA market, a market with a total of ZERO Mainline flights ANYWHERE on US3 aircraft, that oh by the way only have half the capacity into XNA of any aircraft WN would use. If there was more demand the US3 would fly bigger planes or greater frequency.

WN is NOT HAPPENING in XNA. everyone who wants to fly Southwest will keep driving.

Your hate warms my heart in the chilly winter.

Recent economic outlooks states that Northwest Arkansas needs 90,000 residential units in the next 3 to 5 years. At just two people per unit, that puts the population around 750K. The jobs being created are engineers, doctors, ect. To continue to ignore one of the fastest growing and top performing economic regions in the country under the assumption that they continue to drive two hrs to Tulsa is financial malfeasance. This argument in less than a decade, will be like you saying folks in Tulsa should drive to OKC for all WN flights.

WN should stick XNA in between two major markets that need more frequencies or fill the excess capacity
needed to keep the frequencies for no plane change stops that they have done for years and grow from there. But, yeah, as long as XNA is one of the top 10 most expensive airports in the country, folks will drive elsewhere. Just offering dozens of connecting markets for sub $400 fares would do wonders at XNA. If XNA is right and there is at least a 20% bleed to other airports due to high fares and there was 700,000 enplanements in 2017, that's 140,000 enplanements to possibly be had just in 2018 and it's growing every day.

For those unfamiliar with what's happening in Northwest Arkansas:

http://www.nwacouncil.org/our-regions-ranking/

yay arkansas, it's great, we're growing, it's a travesty we don't have WN


we get it, you are a big fan. you should get a job with the chamber of commerce there.

it doesn't change any of the facts mentioned up thread. If WN thought they could make money there they'd already be there. Apparently they need your expertise in their route planning department for they certainly don't know what they're doing, and in fact are committing "malfeasance"
Read up thread. too much new capacity if WN started flying 737s multiple times a day to a place that has no big 3 mainline service ANYWHERE.
Sorry, not happening, bud

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

yay arkansas, it's great, we're growing, it's a travesty we don't have WN


we get it, you are a big fan. you should get a job with the chamber of commerce there.

it doesn't change any of the facts mentioned up thread. If WN thought they could make money there they'd already be there. Apparently they need your expertise in their route planning department for they certainly don't know what they're doing, and in fact are committing "malfeasance"
Read up thread. too much new capacity if WN started flying 737s multiple times a day to a place that has no big 3 mainline service ANYWHERE.
Sorry, not happening, bud

There are a few smaller markets in Texas served by WN that do not have any mainline flights on any of the US3, including AMA, MAF, CRP, and HRL. However, DL does not serve AMA, MAF, and CRP, and DL also only has seasonal nonstop service to its MSP hub from HRL.

In addition, BHM and LIT do not have any mainline service on AA or UA, and DL only has mainline service to its main ATL hub from BHM and LIT.

WN does serve SDF, but AA only operates mainline service to its main DFW hub from SDF and DL only operates mainline service to its main ATL hub from SDF. UA has no mainline service out of SDF.

WN does serve MHT and ROC, but the majority of the service out of MHT and ROC on AA, DL, and UA is on regional jets.

WN might be willing to serve markets that have limited mainline service on the US3 if there is enough demand for at least 8 daily departures on 737-700 or larger aircraft on WN. There is more than enough demand to support WN service to SDF and MHT, despite limited mainline service out of these WN stations on the US3. There is also more than enough demand for WN service out of LIT during the summer travel season, despite limited DL service out of LIT.

Since we're asking for wishlists or predictions, I'd love to see WN add either PIT-OAK to compete with UA's PIT-SFO service or PIT-SAN to add another non-stop market that has been overlooked by the existing carriers at PIT. I doubt it will happen this time around, but I'm hoping that will happen someday soon.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

Now that we are nearing the next schedule extension (Feb 15) does anyone have any predictions. I am always curious to see what people predict vs what happens.

A few on here rooting for XNA
say XNA-HNL. probably have to wait behind LIT-XNA to start first, however. On the new A380 fleet.

I would love to see SWA here in XNA. But, we probably won't see them till another 2 years Min. I assume. You never know though. You are right though, most is business travel out of XNA.

XNA2ASG wrote:

I would love to see SWA here in XNA. But, we probably won't see them till another 2 years Min. I assume. You never know though. You are right though, most is business travel out of XNA.

XNA on WN is kind of a running joke on this thread. Only a couple of posters who appear to be regional fanboys on here have convinced themselves it's possible. I have stated a bunch of business reasons why it will never happen. There may be some low cost carrier like Frontier someday at XNA, but WN will never be there.

Will WN ever add service to MYR? AA, DL, UA, G4, and NK all already serve MYR, and in addition, F9 and SY have already announced plans to serve MYR.

Destinations that WN could possibly serve nonstop from MYR if it adds service to MYR include ALB, ATL, AUS, BWI, MDW, DAL, HOU, MCI, MKE, BNA, and STL.

Southwest is going to be offering air cargo service on its flights to and from Mexico starting in May 2018, and this announcement can be found at https://www.swamedia.com/releases/release-7fde866a3ced02f40d9a61c301146dea-southwest-airlines-cargo-to-go-beyond-borders.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

XNA2ASG wrote:

I would love to see SWA here in XNA. But, we probably won't see them till another 2 years Min. I assume. You never know though. You are right though, most is business travel out of XNA.

XNA on WN is kind of a running joke on this thread. Only a couple of posters who appear to be regional fanboys on here have convinced themselves it's possible. I have stated a bunch of business reasons why it will never happen. There may be some low cost carrier like Frontier someday at XNA, but WN will never be there.

'Never' is a bit of a strong word. I completely agree with you in the next 3 years. WN has more important things on their mind. But much can change in 5, 10, or even 20 years down the road that might make a different business case. Would you have believed it if someone told you 20 years ago that AUS would have 747 service to LHR on BA this summer? I certainly would not have believed that.

Jshank83 wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

What domestic airport will Southwest serve next FAT, XNA, OR ANC?

I can't see them starting XNA. I don't think they can get the passengers they would need to get to fill their planes

That's why they aren't here

Jshank83 wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

What domestic airport will Southwest serve next FAT, XNA, OR ANC?

I can't see them starting XNA. I don't think they can get the passengers they would need to get to fill their planes

That's why they aren't here I'd say...

FlyingJhawk wrote:

Southwest operates out of Wichita is about a 2.5 to 3 hour drive from KC and about the same to OKC. XNA is a longer drive than that . . . perhaps close to 4 hours to KCI depending on the time of day. The drive from NWA to Tulsa is about the same from as KC to Wichita. I could see an XNA/LAS flight working and perhaps a XNA/MCO. Granted that's only two city pairs but I don't think SWA servicing XNA is that big of a leap. Add in that the population growth in NWA is off the charts and it's probably a matter of when not if.

Would love them do that. Those are both AAY routes though, giving them a run for their money.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

What domestic airport will Southwest serve next FAT, XNA, OR ANC?

Xna is NOT going to happen.
There are some local boosters on here that are sure rooting for it or thinking it will, but it ain't going to happen.
Read up thread for why I say that. If you STILL don't agree then if for no other reason than it's too much airplane...too many seats. Southwest comes into an airport and usually connects it to 2 to 4 other cities on the southeast map with flights a few times a day.

Say on the conservative side they started serving XNA with 5 or 6 flights a day somewhere...that's 1000 new seats on 737s that are seats dumped into the XNA market, a market with a total of ZERO Mainline flights ANYWHERE on US3 aircraft, that oh by the way only have half the capacity into XNA of any aircraft WN would use. If there was more demand the US3 would fly bigger planes or greater frequency.

WN is NOT HAPPENING in XNA. everyone who wants to fly Southwest will keep driving.

False, we have a daily (sometimes 2x daily in some seasons) DL mainline from ATL. No matter what always one daily mainline flight is available.

There is an article titled "Southwest Airlines CEO sees growth for carrier in Las Vegas" that was published on the Las Vegas Review Journal's website yesterday, and that article can be found at https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/southwest-airlines-ceo-sees-growth-for-carrier-in-las-vegas/.

I agree that WN has opportunities to further expand domestically at LAS. WN did previously serve LAS nonstop from ALB, JAX, MHT, ORF, and PVD, and WN could bring back nonstop service to these 5 destinations from LAS. Additionally, WN could also add nonstop service to LAS from CVG, MEM, and RIC, and WN could also extend LAS-MSP nonstop service to year-round.

TYSflyer wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

XNA2ASG wrote:

I would love to see SWA here in XNA. But, we probably won't see them till another 2 years Min. I assume. You never know though. You are right though, most is business travel out of XNA.

XNA on WN is kind of a running joke on this thread. Only a couple of posters who appear to be regional fanboys on here have convinced themselves it's possible. I have stated a bunch of business reasons why it will never happen. There may be some low cost carrier like Frontier someday at XNA, but WN will never be there.

'Never' is a bit of a strong word. I completely agree with you in the next 3 years. WN has more important things on their mind. But much can change in 5, 10, or even 20 years down the road that might make a different business case. Would you have believed it if someone told you 20 years ago that AUS would have 747 service to LHR on BA this summer? I certainly would not have believed that.

"Never" is not too strong of a word for me. If the shoe fits....

I take issue with your comparison.
So, the fact that Austin now has international flight to LHR and this surprises you somehow from where they were 20 years ago means XNA will get Southwest?

These two aren't even REMOTELY connected business situations. Ridiculous. The geography of where it's located in between other bigger cities isn't changing "in 20 years." There's a solid reason XNA won't work and WN has no need to fly there, and can still capture passengers. It's been discussed but fanboys won't accept it. It's like the 2 guys on the thread here insisting the US3 airlines will still order A380s "in a couple of years".

XNA2ASG wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

What domestic airport will Southwest serve next FAT, XNA, OR ANC?

Xna is NOT going to happen.
There are some local boosters on here that are sure rooting for it or thinking it will, but it ain't going to happen.
Read up thread for why I say that. If you STILL don't agree then if for no other reason than it's too much airplane...too many seats. Southwest comes into an airport and usually connects it to 2 to 4 other cities on the southeast map with flights a few times a day.

Say on the conservative side they started serving XNA with 5 or 6 flights a day somewhere...that's 1000 new seats on 737s that are seats dumped into the XNA market, a market with a total of ZERO Mainline flights ANYWHERE on US3 aircraft, that oh by the way only have half the capacity into XNA of any aircraft WN would use. If there was more demand the US3 would fly bigger planes or greater frequency.

WN is NOT HAPPENING in XNA. everyone who wants to fly Southwest will keep driving.

False, we have a daily (sometimes 2x daily in some seasons) DL mainline from ATL. No matter what always one daily mainline flight is available.

My bad. This little airport with mostly Monday-Friday service for Walmart business has exactly ONE mainline flight and SOMETIMES TWO in certain seasons. It is certainly ready to fill the added 750-1000 seats PER DAY on new Southwest flights into XNA International.

jplatts wrote:

There is an article titled "Southwest Airlines CEO sees growth for carrier in Las Vegas" that was published on the Las Vegas Review Journal's website yesterday, and that article can be found at https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/southwest-airlines-ceo-sees-growth-for-carrier-in-las-vegas/.

I agree that WN has opportunities to further expand domestically at LAS. WN did previously serve LAS nonstop from ALB, JAX, MHT, ORF, and PVD, and WN could bring back nonstop service to these 5 destinations from LAS. Additionally, WN could also add nonstop service to LAS from CVG, MEM, and RIC, and WN could also extend LAS-MSP nonstop service to year-round.

I'd also love to see LAS-ISP service re-added. They used to have 2x daily at one point but cut the service in the 2008 recession. Maybe also a LAS-PBI?

Would love to see WN grow some more in LAS. Seems like it has been years since they have been active. LAS and PHX have been put on the back burner in favor of DEN. LAS can probably sustain service to 99% of the WN cities.

WNflyer1523 wrote:

I'd also love to see LAS-ISP service re-added. They used to have 2x daily at one point but cut the service in the 2008 recession. Maybe also a LAS-PBI?

I agree that WN could possibly bring back LAS-ISP nonstop service, and I also agree that WN could possibly also add LAS-PBI nonstop service.

IN a Wall Street journal article posted yesterday on the American monopoly at CLT, a WN financial exec was quoted in saying that WN has plans to expand in Charlotte. I would assume this would be in concurrency with the opening of the new concourse, which they will move o and receive an additional gate.
What might they be looking at? Additional flights to BWI/HOU/DAL/MDW? Or new service out west to Denver/Las Vegas? I’m not sure they’d try Florida again given how fast they pulled out of it once AirTran transferred their routes to/fro Charlotte. The only way I could see that is if they did it to FLL to connect to Latin America.
Thoughts?

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

TYSflyer wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

XNA on WN is kind of a running joke on this thread. Only a couple of posters who appear to be regional fanboys on here have convinced themselves it's possible. I have stated a bunch of business reasons why it will never happen. There may be some low cost carrier like Frontier someday at XNA, but WN will never be there.

'Never' is a bit of a strong word. I completely agree with you in the next 3 years. WN has more important things on their mind. But much can change in 5, 10, or even 20 years down the road that might make a different business case. Would you have believed it if someone told you 20 years ago that AUS would have 747 service to LHR on BA this summer? I certainly would not have believed that.

"Never" is not too strong of a word for me. If the shoe fits....

I take issue with your comparison.
So, the fact that Austin now has international flight to LHR and this surprises you somehow from where they were 20 years ago means XNA will get Southwest?

These two aren't even REMOTELY connected business situations. Ridiculous. The geography of where it's located in between other bigger cities isn't changing "in 20 years." There's a solid reason XNA won't work and WN has no need to fly there, and can still capture passengers. It's been discussed but fanboys won't accept it. It's like the 2 guys on the thread here insisting the US3 airlines will still order A380s "in a couple of years".

XNA2ASG wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

Xna is NOT going to happen.
There are some local boosters on here that are sure rooting for it or thinking it will, but it ain't going to happen.
Read up thread for why I say that. If you STILL don't agree then if for no other reason than it's too much airplane...too many seats. Southwest comes into an airport and usually connects it to 2 to 4 other cities on the southeast map with flights a few times a day.

Say on the conservative side they started serving XNA with 5 or 6 flights a day somewhere...that's 1000 new seats on 737s that are seats dumped into the XNA market, a market with a total of ZERO Mainline flights ANYWHERE on US3 aircraft, that oh by the way only have half the capacity into XNA of any aircraft WN would use. If there was more demand the US3 would fly bigger planes or greater frequency.

WN is NOT HAPPENING in XNA. everyone who wants to fly Southwest will keep driving.

False, we have a daily (sometimes 2x daily in some seasons) DL mainline from ATL. No matter what always one daily mainline flight is available.

My bad. This little airport with mostly Monday-Friday service for Walmart business has exactly ONE mainline flight and SOMETIMES TWO in certain seasons. It is certainly ready to fill the added 750-1000 seats PER DAY on new Southwest flights into XNA International.

Ridiculous? You're kidding me, right? What I find ridiculous is how easily the point I'm trying to make went sailing over your head. First of all, I agree with you that XNA will not be seeing WN service in the near future if ever at all. I have never been there and don't know much about the market other than what I've read on here. It is a unique airport due to the presence of Walmart. That is the extent of what I know. What I find interesting is the language that you use like you have a crystal ball and can see the entire existence of WN. The statement about AUS simply means that markets can change dramatically in a relatively short time. I do not think that XNA is equivalent to AUS and that because AUS has service on BA means that XNA will get WN. I just would have never predicted the growth of AUS. I'm sure some people did. Anyway, if that doesn't make some sense we will have to agree to disagree!

ahj2000 wrote:

IN a Wall Street journal article posted yesterday on the American monopoly at CLT, a WN financial exec was quoted in saying that WN has plans to expand in Charlotte. I would assume this would be in concurrency with the opening of the new concourse, which they will move o and receive an additional gate.
What might they be looking at? Additional flights to BWI/HOU/DAL/MDW? Or new service out west to Denver/Las Vegas? I’m not sure they’d try Florida again given how fast they pulled out of it once AirTran transferred their routes to/fro Charlotte. The only way I could see that is if they did it to FLL to connect to Latin America.
Thoughts?

I agree that WN could possibly add nonstop service from CLT to DEN and LAS. I also agree that the possibility of WN adding a 3rd MDW-CLT nonstop is there (at least during the summer travel season) since most of the other markets that are as big as CLT have at least 3 daily nonstops to MDW on WN.

WN could possibly add CLT-PHX nonstop service since PHX is one of the top destinations from CLT, since WN has nonstop service from PHX to destinations that AA does not serve nonstop from PHX, and since there are frequent flyers in Greater Phoenix who prefer to fly on WN over AA.

WN could also add CLT-STL nonstop service since WN has over 50% market share in the STL market, since there are many frequent flyers in the St. Louis area who prefer to fly on WN over other airlines, and since STL used to have nonstop service to CLT on both TW and US prior to the AA-TW and AA-US mergers.

WN has stated that it wants to further expand its international operations, and I agree that WN could add CLT-FLL nonstop service in order to connect passengers to Caribbean destinations from CLT.

TYSflyer wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

TYSflyer wrote:

'Never' is a bit of a strong word. I completely agree with you in the next 3 years. WN has more important things on their mind. But much can change in 5, 10, or even 20 years down the road that might make a different business case. Would you have believed it if someone told you 20 years ago that AUS would have 747 service to LHR on BA this summer? I certainly would not have believed that.

"Never" is not too strong of a word for me. If the shoe fits....

I take issue with your comparison.
So, the fact that Austin now has international flight to LHR and this surprises you somehow from where they were 20 years ago means XNA will get Southwest?

These two aren't even REMOTELY connected business situations. Ridiculous. The geography of where it's located in between other bigger cities isn't changing "in 20 years." There's a solid reason XNA won't work and WN has no need to fly there, and can still capture passengers. It's been discussed but fanboys won't accept it. It's like the 2 guys on the thread here insisting the US3 airlines will still order A380s "in a couple of years".

XNA2ASG wrote:

False, we have a daily (sometimes 2x daily in some seasons) DL mainline from ATL. No matter what always one daily mainline flight is available.

My bad. This little airport with mostly Monday-Friday service for Walmart business has exactly ONE mainline flight and SOMETIMES TWO in certain seasons. It is certainly ready to fill the added 750-1000 seats PER DAY on new Southwest flights into XNA International.

Ridiculous? You're kidding me, right? What I find ridiculous is how easily the point I'm trying to make went sailing over your head. First of all, I agree with you that XNA will not be seeing WN service in the near future if ever at all. I have never been there and don't know much about the market other than what I've read on here. It is a unique airport due to the presence of Walmart. That is the extent of what I know. What I find interesting is the language that you use like you have a crystal ball and can see the entire existence of WN. The statement about AUS simply means that markets can change dramatically in a relatively short time. I do not think that XNA is equivalent to AUS and that because AUS has service on BA means that XNA will get WN. I just would have never predicted the growth of AUS. I'm sure some people did. Anyway, if that doesn't make some sense we will have to agree to disagree!

9

He was too wrapped up in himself.

I agree that WNs move to higher capacity planes hurt the prospects of new service in smaller markets. I would love to see a Boeing /Embraer marriage lead to the introduction of the E2's into a fleet like WN's to address this lower capacity void they have created for themselves.

With the battle going on at Love over 2 gates, I wonder if WN ever entertains the notion of flying out of McKinney. They could shift a lot of intra Texas flying there opening up slots for more markets outside of Texas and better timed connections at Love.

jplatts wrote:

There are a few smaller markets in Texas served by WN that do not have any mainline flights on any of the US3, including AMA, MAF, CRP, and HRL. However, DL does not serve AMA, MAF, and CRP, and DL also only has seasonal nonstop service to its MSP hub from HRL.

In addition, BHM and LIT do not have any mainline service on AA or UA, and DL only has mainline service to its main ATL hub from BHM and LIT.

They have all had mainline service in the past for decades though in addition to WN.

XNA will likely see WN and more mainline flights at some point in the future if it keeps growing.

One interesting thing about XNA is it is probably the smallest market to have nonstop service to both NYC and LAX.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

TYSflyer wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

With the battle going on at Love over 2 gates, I wonder if WN ever entertains the notion of flying out of McKinney. They could shift a lot of intra Texas flying there opening up slots for more markets outside of Texas and better timed connections at Love.

Not until 2024. Until then the current Love field agreement says that WN has to give up a Love Field gate when it starts using a gate at a different metroplex airport. I personally hope that in 2024 WN starts flights out of both Meacham (Alliance?), and McKinney. That'd sure shake up the local politicians - and maybe exert enough pressure to up the number of gates at Love Field, too.

afcjets wrote:

jplatts wrote:

There are a few smaller markets in Texas served by WN that do not have any mainline flights on any of the US3, including AMA, MAF, CRP, and HRL. However, DL does not serve AMA, MAF, and CRP, and DL also only has seasonal nonstop service to its MSP hub from HRL.

In addition, BHM and LIT do not have any mainline service on AA or UA, and DL only has mainline service to its main ATL hub from BHM and LIT.

They have all had mainline service in the past for decades though in addition to WN.

XNA will likely see WN and more mainline flights at some point in the future if it keeps growing.

I have just argued that you over come capacity issue by stopping one of the lower yielding flights between two major cities, say Dallas and St. Louis or Denver and Nashville for example, to fill up the empties with XNA traffic each way. Combine two smaller markets for a Sat MCO run like mco/xna/ict/xna/mco.

afcjets wrote:

One interesting thing about XNA is it is probably the smallest market to have nonstop service to both NYC and LAX.

Don't forget UA with SFO

bob75013 wrote:

Not until 2024. Until then the current Love field agreement says that WN has to give up a Love Field gate when it starts using a gate at a different metroplex airport. I personally hope that in 2024 WN starts flights out of both Meacham (Alliance?), and McKinney. That'd sure shake up the local politicians - and maybe exert enough pressure to up the number of gates at Love Field, too.

The 5-party agreement can be amended if Southwest Airlines, the City of Dallas, the City of Fort Worth, the DFW International Airport Board, and American Airlines all agree to the proposed changes in writing.

While Southwest already does serve the entire DFW Metroplex (including both Dallas and Fort Worth) through DAL, Downtown Fort Worth is 37 miles away from DAL and it can be hard to get all the way to DAL from Downtown Fort Worth in rush-hour traffic. I do agree that the lack of WN service to an airport closer to Downtown Fort Worth is one of the few remaining holes in the WN network, and I do agree that WN could start service out of either FTW or AFW.

While AFW is further from Downtown Fort Worth than FTW is, AFW is still closer to Downtown Fort Worth than DFW and DAL are. AFW is also closer to Denton than DFW, DAL, and FTW all are. There is also more room to build a passenger terminal at AFW than there is at FTW, and the runways are also longer at AFW than at FTW.

I also agree that WN could also start service out of TKI, even though portions of Collin County (including the southwest corner of Plano and the northernmost portion of Far North Dallas) are closer to DAL than to TKI. There is also still plenty of room at TKI to build a passenger terminal, and there are some business travelers who might be willing to fly out of TKI if TKI is opened up to commercial service.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

TYSflyer wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

"Never" is not too strong of a word for me. If the shoe fits....

I take issue with your comparison.
So, the fact that Austin now has international flight to LHR and this surprises you somehow from where they were 20 years ago means XNA will get Southwest?

These two aren't even REMOTELY connected business situations. Ridiculous. The geography of where it's located in between other bigger cities isn't changing "in 20 years." There's a solid reason XNA won't work and WN has no need to fly there, and can still capture passengers. It's been discussed but fanboys won't accept it. It's like the 2 guys on the thread here insisting the US3 airlines will still order A380s "in a couple of years".



My bad. This little airport with mostly Monday-Friday service for Walmart business has exactly ONE mainline flight and SOMETIMES TWO in certain seasons. It is certainly ready to fill the added 750-1000 seats PER DAY on new Southwest flights into XNA International.

Ridiculous? You're kidding me, right? What I find ridiculous is how easily the point I'm trying to make went sailing over your head. First of all, I agree with you that XNA will not be seeing WN service in the near future if ever at all. I have never been there and don't know much about the market other than what I've read on here. It is a unique airport due to the presence of Walmart. That is the extent of what I know. What I find interesting is the language that you use like you have a crystal ball and can see the entire existence of WN. The statement about AUS simply means that markets can change dramatically in a relatively short time. I do not think that XNA is equivalent to AUS and that because AUS has service on BA means that XNA will get WN. I just would have never predicted the growth of AUS. I'm sure some people did. Anyway, if that doesn't make some sense we will have to agree to disagree!

9

He was too wrapped up in himself.

I agree that WNs move to higher capacity planes hurt the prospects of new service in smaller markets. I would love to see a Boeing /Embraer marriage lead to the introduction of the E2's into a fleet like WN's to address this lower capacity void they have created for themselves.

With the battle going on at Love over 2 gates, I wonder if WN ever entertains the notion of flying out of McKinney. They could shift a lot of intra Texas flying there opening up slots for more markets outside of Texas and better timed connections at Love.

XNA fanboys with their Southwest nonsense be like Lloyd Christmas in "Dumb and Dumber"
https://youtu.be/KX5jNnDMfxA
"So you're telling me there's a chance"

Some of the big differences between WN and the US3 include the following:

• There are currently 17 WN destinations in the contiguous U.S. without nonstop service from DAL that have nonstop service from DFW on AA, from ATL on DL, and from ORD on UA, including CVG, CLE, DSM, RSW, GRR, GSP, BDL, SDF, MKE, MSP, EWR, ORF, RIC, TUS, IAD, PBI, and ICT
• There are 101 destinations in the U.S. that AA serves nonstop from DFW, DL serves nonstop from ATL, and UA serves nonstop from ORD, whereas WN only has daily nonstop service to 50 destinations from DAL and 62 destinations from MDW
• Of the 101 destinations in the U.S. that have nonstop service from ATL on DL, DFW on AA, and ORD on UA, WN does not serve ANC, AVL, ASE, BZN, CID, CHA, COS, CAE, DAY, EGE, EVV, FAR, XNA, FWA, GSO, HDN, HNL, IAH, HSV, JAN, JAC, TYS, LEX, MSN, MIA, MSO, MOB, MLI, MTJ, MYR, PSP, PIA, RAP, SAV, FSD, SBN, SGF, TVC, and ILM
• WN's MDW, BWI, LAS, and DEN focus cities are all bigger than its DAL home base, whereas DFW is the largest AA hub, ATL is the largest DL hub, and ORD is the largest UA hub
• AA's DFW, CLT, ORD, PHL, MIA, and PHX hubs, DL's ATL, DTW, MSP, and LGA hubs, UA's ORD, IAH, EWR, DEN, and SFO hubs, and AS's SEA hub are all larger than WN's MDW focus city
• AA, DL, and UA serve international destinations in Canada, South America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, whereas WN only serves the US along with some international destinations in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean
• AA, DL, and UA all have codeshare agreements with foreign airlines, and all 3 of these airlines codeshare with airlines that serve Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania, and Latin America
• WN does not charge for the 1st and 2nd checked bags, whereas AA, DL, and UA all usually charge for checked bags in economy class
• WN does not charge change fees that AA, DL, and UA do charge on nonrefundable fare tickets (even though WN will charge for difference in fare)
• WN does not have assigned seating, whereas AA, DL, and UA all have assigned seating
• AA, DL, and UA all offer first class service on all of their mainline flights and on most of their regional flights, whereas WN does not offer first class service on any of its flights
• AA, DL, and UA offer basic economy fares that do not allow changes to be made to the itinerary, whereas WN does not offer basic economy fares

jplatts wrote:

Some of the big differences between WN and the US3 include the following:

• There are currently 17 WN destinations in the contiguous U.S. without nonstop service from DAL that have nonstop service from DFW on AA, from ATL on DL, and from ORD on UA, including CVG, CLE, DSM, RSW, GRR, GSP, BDL, SDF, MKE, MSP, EWR, ORF, RIC, TUS, IAD, PBI, and ICT
• There are 101 destinations in the U.S. that AA serves nonstop from DFW, DL serves nonstop from ATL, and UA serves nonstop from ORD, whereas WN only has daily nonstop service to 50 destinations from DAL and 62 destinations from MDW
• Of the 101 destinations in the U.S. that have nonstop service from ATL on DL, DFW on AA, and ORD on UA, WN does not serve ANC, AVL, ASE, BZN, CID, CHA, COS, CAE, DAY, EGE, EVV, FAR, XNA, FWA, GSO, HDN, HNL, IAH, HSV, JAN, JAC, TYS, LEX, MSN, MIA, MSO, MOB, MLI, MTJ, MYR, PSP, PIA, RAP, SAV, FSD, SBN, SGF, TVC, and ILM
• WN's MDW, BWI, LAS, and DEN focus cities are all bigger than its DAL home base, whereas DFW is the largest AA hub, ATL is the largest DL hub, and ORD is the largest UA hub
• AA's DFW, CLT, ORD, PHL, MIA, and PHX hubs, DL's ATL, DTW, MSP, and LGA hubs, UA's ORD, IAH, EWR, DEN, and SFO hubs, and AS's SEA hub are all larger than WN's MDW focus city
• AA, DL, and UA serve international destinations in Canada, South America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, whereas WN only serves the US along with some international destinations in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean
• AA, DL, and UA all have codeshare agreements with foreign airlines, and all 3 of these airlines codeshare with airlines that serve Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania, and Latin America
• WN does not charge for the 1st and 2nd checked bags, whereas AA, DL, and UA all usually charge for checked bags in economy class
• WN does not charge change fees that AA, DL, and UA do charge on nonrefundable fare tickets (even though WN will charge for difference in fare)
• WN does not have assigned seating, whereas AA, DL, and UA all have assigned seating
• AA, DL, and UA all offer first class service on all of their mainline flights and on most of their regional flights, whereas WN does not offer first class service on any of its flights
• AA, DL, and UA offer basic economy fares that do not allow changes to be made to the itinerary, whereas WN does not offer basic economy fares

You must remember that while all the big three hubs are bigger, volume wise, than WN's MDW focus city, the big three rely a lot on regional jets with 50-75 seats which allows them more frequency. WN is all mainline with the smallest plane having a capacity of 143 passengers.

Today is a day I look forward to -- the peak spring break Saturday -- when the Southwest network takes a pretty extreme bend to Florida and the southwest.

Nonstops for Saturday 3/24 to Florida, Arizona and Vegas

63 Chicago Midway
39 Baltimore
29 Milwaukee
29 St Louis
26 Indianapolis
24 Columbus
22 Kansas City
20 Buffalo
16 Pittsburgh
12 Providence
11 Hartford
11 Minneapolis
11 Philadelphia

On days like this demand seems nearly bottomless. Of the 29 flights to Florida/PHX/LASS 20 were completely sold out . Doing test bookings (for example finding that flight n will sell two seats but if you ask for three it says sold out) it appears there were approximate 25 seats avabile for purchase today across those 29 flights. On top of those 29 FL/PHX/LAS flight nearaly everything else out of Milwaukee was full or nearly so. Easter is early this year and spring break is very compact.

Not sure if other stations were as full but it wouldn't be too surprsing. Days like this there isn't much room for error and for the most part it has been good flying except for poor Indianapolis which got dumped with about 10 inches of snow and has seen 7 of 26 flights axed. Probably a lot of people stuck when they most want to get to warm weather.

I usually look at this spreak break Saturday peak from the northern side but it would be interesting to see what the bulge looks like for Southwest on the southern end.

Here are the full year load factors for WNs cities and routes (outbound loads from each city to destinations under bold heading for origin city). The number next to the bold heading is an RPM/ASM load factor for the city overall.
These are full year 2017 numbers, so some routes show may no longer exist. I filtered out routes with less than five departures performed in 2017, but some of these numbers, particularly the outliers, could be diversion flights picked up in the data. Take it with a grain of salt, but enjoy. Florida, DEN, and SJU to the load factor lists but its interesting to see WN's performance in LGA, its probably improved mostly because the really bad ((IND for example) routes were trimmed during the year, bringing up the overall average. I have no idea how CRP is holding on, but CVG didn't appear to do that well either in its first six months. They did enter with quite a bit of capacity though (to CVG) but it must be improving given the addition of DEN and PHX.
SJU 93.4%
TPA 95.3%
MDW 95.1%
MCO 93.3%
BWI 93.2%
FLL 92.6%
EWR 92.4%
HOU 91.8%

DEN 87.6%
ORF 95.0%
FLL 93.1%
LGA 93.0%
BOS 92.3%
CLE 92.2%
CMH 92.1%
PHL 92.0%
RDU 92.0%
IAD 90.8%
PHX 90.7%
MSY 90.6%
LAX 90.4%
PDX 90.4%
SAN 90.3%
BNA 90.3%
SAT 90.3%
SEA 90.2%
AUS 90.0%
MCO 89.9%
ALB 89.8%
IND 89.8%
PNS 89.6%
TPA 89.5%
SNA 89.3%
MDW 89.2%
MKE 89.1%
DAL 89.1%
OMA 89.0%
MSP 88.9%
DTW 88.7%
HOU 88.0%
MCI 87.8%
PIT 87.6%
CHS 87.3%
ATL 87.0%
LAS 87.0%
GRR 87.0%
STL 86.8%
BUR 86.5%
SJC 86.4%
JAX 86.4%
ONT 86.2%
SLC 85.2%
BDL 85.1%
RSW 84.2%
SFO 84.1%
SMF 83.9%
EWR 83.8%
BOI 83.4%
OAK 82.1%
GEG 82.1%
TUS 81.7%
BWI 81.5%
TUL 81.0%
OKC 79.5%
SDF 77.3%
ABQ 76.1%
RNO 73.6%
LGB 65.3%

MCO 87.1%
OKC 97.8%
BOS 96.9%
LAS 93.1%
OMA 92.4%
AUS 92.0%
PHL 92.0%
DEN 92.0%
DAY 91.9%
GRR 91.7%
PHX 91.6%
MDW 91.3%
SAN 90.9%
STL 89.9%
DAL 89.9%
CMH 89.6%
BNA 89.6%
EWR 89.3%
MCI 88.9%
BWI 88.4%
BDL 88.0%
ALB 87.9%
DCA 87.6%
HOU 87.5%
BUF 87.5%
IND 87.3%
SJU 87.3%
ATL 87.1%
MSY 86.8%
ABQ 86.6%
PIT 86.6%
MHT 86.6%
MKE 86.3%
ORF 85.9%
PVD 85.4%
SAT 85.3%
FNT 84.1%
IAD 84.0%
RDU 83.2%
MEM 82.4%
SDF 80.8%
ISP 80.2%
ROC 76.1%
BHM 74.8%
RIC 58.6%
FLL 56.3%

LGA 86.3%
DEN 92.7%
DAL 91.3%
ATL 91.0%
MDW 90.8%
HOU 86.9%
MCI 86.3%
TPA 84.1%
STL 82.2%
BNA 82.2%
MKE 71.9%
IND 54.8%

ALB 85.7%
LAS 90.9%
FLL 89.2%
MCO 87.2%
DEN 86.8%
TPA 85.6%
MDW 85.6%
BWI 84.7%
RSW 71.8%

PHL 84.8%
DEN 93.0%
LAS 92.9%
MCO 92.5%
TPA 92.3%
DAL 91.9%
PHX 91.0%
FLL 88.3%
ATL 87.1%
BNA 83.8%
STL 80.6%
PBI 79.3%
MDW 70.7%

FLL 84.7%
LAS 94.6%
DEN 93.7%
PHX 92.6%
PHL 91.9%
MDW 90.3%
BUF 90.1%
PIT 90.0%
BNA 89.5%
HOU 88.9%
EWR 88.8%
CMH 88.5%
ATL 87.9%
BDL 87.8%
RDU 87.0%
PVD 86.7%
MSY 85.8%
AUS 85.4%
MKE 85.4%
DAL 85.1%
ALB 84.5%
DCA 84.2%
BWI 83.8%
MCI 83.0%
SJU 82.7%
ISP 78.3%
STL 77.9%
IND 77.5%
TPA 77.3%
IAD 68.7%
MCO 63.5%

RSW 84.5%
ALB 89.7%
MDW 88.6%
BWI 88.2%
PVD 86.7%
STL 85.9%
BDL 85.4%
CMH 85.2%
MKE 84.0%
MSP 83.2%
MCI 83.1%
IND 82.5%
PIT 82.4%
BUF 81.7%
DCA 79.8%
DEN 78.6%
GRR 78.6%
ATL 76.2%
BNA 66.7%

PWM 84.1%
BWI 84.1%

EWR 84.0%
OAK 91.1%
PHX 90.7%
SAN 88.4%
MCO 88.1%
FLL 87.7%
DEN 85.4%
MDW 84.1%
AUS 83.9%
STL 81.3%
SJU 81.0%
IND 61.3%

DSM 83.9%
LAS 92.0%
STL 79.6%

SEA 83.8%
MKE 93.0%
HOU 92.6%
PHX 92.5%
SNA 88.2%
MDW 88.1%
DEN 87.3%
BNA 86.4%
AUS 86.3%
STL 85.7%
DAL 85.5%
BWI 84.4%
LAS 84.0%
SAN 83.6%
OAK 81.3%
MCI 80.6%
SJC 77.5%
SMF 75.8%

BDL 83.6%
DEN 89.6%
LAS 89.0%
TPA 88.7%
MCO 88.6%
FLL 86.9%
RSW 82.9%
BWI 80.8%
MDW 76.0%

ROC 83.6%
MCO 88.7%
BWI 82.6%
TPA 81.1%

PBI 83.4%
PVD 87.5%
BWI 85.0%
ATL 83.7%
PHL 81.2%
ISP 81.2%

BOS 83.4%
MCO 95.2%
DAL 91.6%
DEN 90.5%
MDW 89.3%
HOU 89.3%
AUS 88.4%
BNA 87.4%
STL 84.2%
ATL 83.0%
BWI 81.1%
MCI 79.5%
MKE 74.4%
CMH 73.3%
IND 71.4%

BUF 83.3%
FLL 89.0%
PHX 87.0%
LAS 86.6%
MCO 86.2%
MDW 83.7%
TPA 83.4%
BWI 78.6%
RSW 71.0%

TPA 83.3%
PHL 94.2%
LAS 91.8%
DEN 91.8%
MDW 91.7%
DCA 90.0%
MCO 89.5%
PHX 89.3%
SJU 89.2%
ALB 87.8%
DAL 87.7%
MHT 86.6%
BDL 86.3%
CMH 85.3%
PIT 85.1%
FNT 85.0%
IND 83.8%
BWI 83.3%
LGA 83.2%
BUF 83.0%
HOU 82.4%
GRR 82.3%
BNA 82.1%
ATL 81.9%
MCI 81.6%
STL 81.0%
ISP 80.2%
PVD 80.1%
AUS 79.6%
MKE 78.8%
SAT 78.1%
FLL 77.8%
ROC 77.2%
SDF 77.1%
MEM 75.3%
MSY 73.5%
RDU 72.1%
BHM 72.1%

ATL 82.8%
LAX 93.9%
LGA 92.1%
PHX 91.4%
OAK 90.7%
LAS 90.3%
SAN 89.4%
FLL 89.3%
DEN 89.3%
DTW 88.2%
MCO 87.4%
DAL 87.2%
MDW 85.7%
HOU 85.2%
PBI 85.1%
MSY 84.5%
PHL 84.1%
AUS 84.1%
DCA 83.3%
TPA 83.1%
SAT 82.9%
BOS 82.2%
RIC 80.2%
BWI 80.2%
STL 80.0%
MSP 79.7%
MCI 79.5%
RSW 79.0%
JAX 77.2%
RDU 76.5%
MKE 75.1%
CLE 72.0%
GSP 71.2%
CAK 70.4%
CMH 70.0%
IAD 67.8%
IND 67.7%
PIT 66.2%

MDW 82.8%
LAX 94.8%
PHX 92.4%
SAN 92.2%
FLL 92.2%
SNA 92.1%
LAS 91.8%
SMF 91.8%
MCO 91.6%
DEN 91.4%
ONT 91.3%
LGA 91.0%
SFO 90.9%
PDX 90.6%
TPA 90.5%
MSY 90.5%
HOU 90.2%
SAT 90.0%
SEA 89.3%
AUS 89.1%
SLC 88.9%
BOI 88.9%
DAL 88.7%
SJC 88.6%
RSW 88.3%
TUS 88.2%
BOS 87.9%
ABQ 87.5%
OAK 87.1%
ATL 86.6%
GEG 86.1%
ECP 85.7%
MSP 85.1%
EWR 84.7%
ALB 84.6%
BWI 84.1%
ORF 82.9%
DCA 81.7%
JAX 81.1%
BUF 80.2%
MHT 79.7%
SJU 79.6%
PVD 79.3%
PNS 78.7%
RNO 78.3%
OKC 78.0%
BHM 77.5%
OMA 75.7%
MCI 75.4%
RDU 74.8%
BNA 74.5%
MEM 74.3%
GRR 74.2%
BDL 74.2%
CHS 73.2%
STL 72.8%
PHL 72.5%
CLE 72.3%
SDF 71.4%
CMH 71.1%
FNT 67.3%
DAY 65.6%
CLT 65.6%
CVG 65.3%
PIT 64.9%
DTW 64.8%
IND 62.8%

MHT 82.6%
TPA 88.7%
MCO 85.9%
BWI 81.2%
MDW 80.8%

PDX 82.6%
AUS 93.7%
PHX 91.4%
MDW 90.1%
DEN 90.0%
LAX 89.5%
DAL 87.8%
BWI 87.4%
STL 87.3%
LAS 87.0%
HOU 85.8%
SNA 85.0%
ABQ 84.8%
ONT 84.7%
OAK 81.9%
MCI 81.8%
BUR 78.8%
SJC 77.8%
SAN 77.2%
SEA 74.7%
SMF 72.2%
SFO 55.0%

DCA 82.5%
TPA 90.5%
DAL 90.0%
AUS 88.7%
MCI 87.3%
HOU 86.7%
MCO 86.1%
STL 85.0%
OMA 82.8%
MDW 82.6%
MSY 81.6%
ATL 80.6%
PVD 80.5%
FLL 80.5%
MKE 79.8%
IND 76.7%
BNA 75.2%
CMH 68.5%
RSW 67.9%

PVD 82.4%
RSW 91.5%
FLL 88.3%
MCO 87.3%
TPA 86.1%
MDW 82.1%
PBI 81.2%
BWI 81.0%
DCA 69.9%

SNA 82.3%
HOU 92.7%
MDW 92.6%
AUS 90.9%
SEA 88.1%
STL 88.0%
PDX 88.0%
DEN 87.5%
DAL 87.3%
PHX 86.5%
LAS 82.1%
OAK 82.0%
SMF 81.9%
SJC 79.5%
MCI 75.9%
SFO 73.1%

ORF 82.2%
DEN 91.3%
MCO 89.6%
BWI 81.0%
MDW 80.5%

PHX 82.1%
DTW 93.9%
EWR 93.3%
FLL 93.1%
MDW 92.5%
RDU 92.2%
CMH 92.1%
MSP 92.1%
PDX 91.3%
BUF 91.0%
SEA 90.9%
ATL 90.7%
MCO 90.6%
PIT 90.2%
CLE 90.2%
DEN 90.2%
GEG 90.1%
SDF 89.1%
AUS 88.6%
MKE 88.0%
DAL 87.8%
BOI 87.7%
SNA 87.6%
BWI 87.0%
SAT 86.9%
PHL 86.6%
LIT 85.6%
MSY 85.4%
BNA 84.5%
TPA 84.1%
IND 83.7%
MCI 83.6%
STL 83.1%
HOU 82.2%
OMA 82.0%
ICT 81.7%
SMF 81.5%
ONT 81.5%
SJC 79.9%
BUR 78.4%
OKC 77.4%
SAN 75.4%
LAX 75.2%
ABQ 74.1%
SFO 74.0%
ELP 72.9%
OAK 72.0%
LAS 71.5%
SLC 71.4%
RNO 69.9%
TUL 69.0%

LAS 82.0%
MSP 93.5%
FLL 93.2%
MCO 92.8%
MDW 92.6%
DSM 91.9%
ATL 91.4%
PHL 90.3%
PIT 90.1%
TPA 89.6%
CLE 89.4%
CMH 89.0%
DTW 88.8%
DAL 88.4%
IND 87.6%
BWI 87.5%
AUS 87.4%
SFO 87.3%
SEA 87.2%
HOU 87.0%
PDX 86.7%
ICT 86.7%
TUL 86.3%
MCI 86.2%
LAX 85.8%
MKE 85.8%
SNA 85.7%
BDL 85.7%
BUF 85.1%
LIT 85.1%
DEN 85.0%
BNA 84.7%
BOI 84.6%
RDU 84.4%
STL 84.1%
MSY 84.0%
SAT 83.4%
GEG 82.3%
TUS 81.7%
OMA 81.6%
SJC 81.0%
MAF 80.4%
OAK 79.0%
BHM 77.6%
RNO 77.5%
ONT 77.1%
LBB 77.0%
OKC 76.2%
ELP 76.0%
LGB 75.2%
ALB 74.8%
SAN 74.5%
SDF 74.3%
ABQ 74.2%
SLC 73.7%
SMF 73.2%
PHX 70.2%
BUR 69.5%
AMA 68.8%

BWI 81.8%
LAX 93.4%
OAK 92.5%
SMF 91.9%
SJC 91.7%
PDX 91.6%
SEA 91.5%
HOU 90.4%
LAS 90.3%
MCO 89.3%
SAN 89.1%
DAL 88.0%
SLC 87.9%
SJU 87.3%
PHX 87.0%
ABQ 86.0%
MDW 86.0%
RSW 85.7%
ROC 85.7%
MSY 84.8%
FLL 84.7%
PBI 84.4%
BOS 83.1%
PWM 82.6%
DEN 82.6%
SAT 82.6%
TPA 82.5%
AUS 82.5%
OKC 81.7%
MEM 81.4%
MHT 81.3%
ALB 81.3%
BDL 80.8%
PVD 80.8%
MSP 80.1%
ATL 79.9%
RDU 79.9%
MKE 79.5%
ORF 78.8%
CHS 78.5%
STL 78.3%
ECP 78.0%
CLT 77.7%
JAX 77.6%
DTW 77.6%
GRR 77.5%
MCI 77.2%
ISP 76.2%
BUF 75.1%
CLE 74.4%
BNA 73.4%
IND 73.2%
PIT 72.3%
BHM 72.0%
CVG 71.1%
SDF 70.3%
CMH 67.2%

RDU 81.7%
DEN 92.3%
LAS 91.8%
DAL 89.4%
PHX 89.1%
FLL 87.5%
MCO 86.6%
BNA 82.9%
HOU 80.2%
MDW 79.8%
BWI 79.3%
STL 78.7%
MSY 77.8%
ATL 75.8%
TPA 71.1%

AUS 81.5%
PDX 93.9%
DEN 91.6%
MCO 90.3%
DCA 88.6%
LAS 88.5%
SAT 88.4%
BOS 88.0%
PHX 87.2%
ABQ 85.6%
OAK 85.5%
SEA 85.4%
SAN 85.4%
LAX 85.3%
MDW 84.7%
EWR 84.2%
BWI 83.7%
BNA 83.2%
FLL 83.2%
SJC 82.9%
SNA 82.8%
MCI 81.7%
ATL 80.7%
STL 80.2%
TPA 79.1%
HOU 77.5%
MSY 77.4%
DAL 74.8%
HRL 70.0%
ELP 68.1%
LBB 49.8%

BNA 81.4%
SEA 90.7%
PHX 90.0%
DEN 89.9%
FLL 89.9%
SAN 89.0%
MCO 88.8%
BOS 88.7%
LAS 87.5%
CHS 86.6%
PIT 86.6%
PHL 84.5%
MKE 84.5%
RDU 83.6%
DAL 83.6%
CLE 83.3%
LAX 82.3%
LGA 81.9%
TPA 81.9%
AUS 80.8%
MCI 80.3%
OAK 80.2%
CLT 80.0%
STL 79.0%
ECP 79.0%
MSY 78.5%
DTW 77.1%
DCA 77.0%
SAT 76.7%
CMH 76.3%
PNS 75.9%
MSP 75.0%
MDW 74.8%
BWI 74.2%
HOU 73.4%
JAX 72.9%
ATL 72.6%
RSW 71.7%

IAD 81.3%
DEN 86.8%
MCO 84.7%
ATL 74.2%
FLL 69.8%

OMA 81.3%
MCO 89.7%
HOU 87.8%
LAX 86.6%
PHX 84.6%
DAL 84.4%
STL 84.1%
DEN 83.8%
LAS 83.7%
DCA 82.1%
MDW 73.0%

PIT 80.9%
DEN 90.2%
LAS 90.0%
FLL 88.4%
MCO 87.5%
BNA 86.6%
STL 86.5%
PHX 85.7%
HOU 84.7%
TPA 84.1%
DAL 83.8%
LAX 83.6%
RSW 78.7%
ATL 74.6%
MDW 70.7%
BWI 68.6%
MSY 58.6%

TUS 80.8%
MDW 89.2%
DEN 86.0%
LAS 79.3%
SAN 77.9%
LAX 76.6%
OAK 71.8%

GRR 80.8%
MCO 86.3%
MDW 81.4%
BWI 80.4%
RSW 79.1%
DEN 78.6%
TPA 78.1%

GEG 80.7%
MDW 92.0%
SMF 89.0%
SAN 89.0%
LAS 88.3%
PHX 88.0%
DEN 87.7%
OAK 80.3%
BOI 54.2%

MKE 80.6%
SEA 91.3%
PHX 89.6%
STL 89.1%
LAS 89.1%
LAX 88.9%
DEN 88.3%
DAL 87.9%
FLL 85.4%
SFO 85.2%
MCO 85.2%
BNA 83.5%
SAN 82.4%
RSW 82.0%
DCA 78.7%
BWI 78.0%
ATL 77.1%
BOS 77.0%
TPA 75.6%
MCI 73.6%
LGA 71.7%
CLE 44.3%
MSP 43.4%

BOI 80.6%
MDW 88.7%
SMF 88.0%
DEN 86.3%
PHX 84.9%
SAN 83.3%
LAS 81.4%
OAK 78.7%
GEG 65.8%

MCI 80.6%
LAX 91.7%
PHX 88.5%
SNA 87.8%
LAS 87.0%
DEN 86.9%
DCA 86.9%
MCO 86.2%
OAK 85.4%
PDX 84.6%
AUS 84.2%
LGA 84.1%
ATL 83.7%
ABQ 82.9%
SEA 82.3%
FLL 81.9%
SAN 81.9%
SAT 81.0%
RSW 80.6%
BNA 79.9%
BOS 79.7%
HOU 78.5%
BWI 77.1%
TPA 76.5%
DAL 75.7%
MDW 75.6%
MSY 75.5%
STL 74.3%
PNS 73.0%
MSP 72.1%
MKE 71.3%
IND 65.7%

MSY 80.4%
LAX 94.9%
DEN 93.4%
CMH 91.6%
MDW 90.5%
IND 87.3%
FLL 86.8%
PHX 86.4%
MCO 84.9%
BWI 84.8%
LAS 84.7%
SAN 83.5%
OAK 82.9%
ATL 82.0%
DCA 81.7%
BNA 77.7%
MCI 77.6%
DAL 75.8%
HOU 75.3%
STL 75.1%
AUS 74.8%
SAT 72.3%
RDU 70.5%
PIT 70.4%
TPA 67.7%

SAN 80.3%
HOU 92.7%
MDW 92.3%
BWI 92.0%
GEG 91.8%
MCO 90.2%
SEA 88.1%
EWR 88.1%
BNA 87.6%
DEN 87.4%
STL 87.3%
ATL 87.2%
MSY 86.6%
BOI 86.4%
IND 86.2%
DAL 85.4%
AUS 85.0%
PDX 83.9%
MCI 83.8%
SAT 80.7%
SMF 80.7%
SJC 79.7%
SLC 77.2%
MKE 76.8%
OAK 76.5%
TUS 75.6%
PHX 74.1%
SFO 74.1%
LAS 74.0%
RNO 73.6%
ABQ 73.6%

ICT 80.3%
PHX 85.7%
LAS 80.9%
STL 77.3%

LAX 80.3%
ATL 93.5%
MDW 93.4%
MSY 93.0%
DAL 92.9%
BWI 92.9%
HOU 92.6%
MCI 91.7%
DEN 89.9%
PDX 88.6%
MKE 88.5%
OMA 87.0%
LAS 84.3%
PIT 84.3%
STL 84.2%
ABQ 83.4%
BNA 82.6%
AUS 82.3%
SAT 80.6%
IND 80.2%
ELP 78.0%
TUS 77.8%
PHX 74.2%
SMF 73.8%
OAK 72.8%
SLC 71.3%
RNO 70.4%
SFO 68.0%
SJC 65.5%

STL 80.1%
SAN 90.1%
PNS 89.4%
SFO 89.4%
MCO 88.8%
SNA 87.6%
DEN 87.2%
LAS 86.6%
PIT 86.5%
BOS 86.2%
SEA 86.1%
PHX 86.1%
MKE 85.9%
PDX 85.3%
DCA 85.2%
CLE 85.2%
AUS 85.1%
LAX 84.7%
PHL 84.0%
LGA 83.9%
RDU 83.9%
ECP 83.2%
OAK 82.6%
EWR 82.6%
RSW 81.3%
BNA 81.2%
CMH 81.1%
DSM 79.7%
OMA 79.3%
BWI 79.0%
FLL 78.5%
ATL 78.2%
CHS 77.6%
TPA 76.7%
ICT 76.1%
HOU 75.6%
OKC 74.3%
DAL 73.7%
SAT 73.5%
DTW 73.4%
MCI 72.9%
LIT 72.7%
MDW 72.5%
MSP 71.5%
MSY 71.1%
TUL 69.1%

CHS 80.0%
DAL 91.3%
HOU 84.4%
BNA 83.8%
STL 83.4%
BWI 79.1%
DEN 76.2%
MDW 75.7%

MSP 79.9%
LAS 94.8%
PHX 89.8%
DEN 87.8%
ATL 84.4%
MDW 83.3%
BWI 81.7%
BNA 75.8%
RSW 74.5%
STL 66.7%
MCI 65.9%
MKE 50.2%

RIC 79.7%
ATL 79.7%
MCO 78.0%

DAL 79.6%
LAX 92.9%
LGA 92.1%
HRL 92.1%
DEN 91.0%
DCA 90.9%
PHX 90.9%
JAX 90.9%
SLC 90.7%
BOS 90.5%
RDU 89.8%
SNA 89.5%
LAS 89.5%
CLT 89.4%
MKE 89.1%
BWI 88.9%
MCO 88.8%
SFO 88.4%
ECP 88.4%
DTW 87.7%
PDX 87.7%
MDW 87.5%
PHL 87.1%
RNO 86.8%
SEA 86.6%
PNS 85.9%
PIT 85.6%
IND 85.4%
ONT 84.9%
BUR 84.8%
ATL 84.3%
SJC 84.3%
OMA 84.3%
CMH 83.9%
SAN 83.8%
FLL 83.6%
OAK 83.4%
BNA 83.3%
SMF 83.2%
CHS 83.0%
TPA 82.9%
ABQ 78.3%
MEM 77.3%
LIT 75.2%
MSY 74.4%
STL 74.0%
MCI 73.9%
SAT 73.3%
ELP 73.2%
LBB 72.1%
HOU 71.3%
BHM 70.5%
AUS 69.7%
TUL 69.6%
OKC 69.4%
AMA 66.2%
MAF 64.0%

CMH 79.5%
HOU 94.3%
LAS 89.3%
MCO 89.1%
FLL 88.7%
DEN 88.3%
PHX 86.8%
TPA 84.6%
DAL 82.9%
RSW 82.2%
OAK 81.9%
BNA 80.7%
STL 79.4%
MDW 77.4%
ATL 72.6%
DCA 71.2%
BOS 69.3%
BWI 68.6%
MSY 54.6%

ECP 79.2%
MDW 94.8%
AUS 91.3%
STL 88.5%
DAL 85.2%
BWI 84.5%
HOU 76.3%
BNA 75.3%

DTW 79.1%
PHX 93.6%
ATL 89.5%
DAL 89.1%
LAS 88.2%
DEN 88.1%
BNA 76.3%
BWI 76.2%
STL 70.1%
MDW 66.8%

CLE 79.1%
PHX 90.0%
LAS 89.6%
BNA 85.1%
STL 84.1%
DEN 83.4%
ATL 80.7%
MDW 74.3%
BWI 72.2%
MKE 40.3%

HOU 79.0%
SEA 94.6%
SLC 94.5%
CMH 93.8%
LAX 92.2%
BOS 91.1%
LGA 90.9%
SJU 90.0%
BWI 90.0%
SNA 90.0%
FLL 89.8%
MDW 89.7%
LAS 89.6%
MCO 88.8%
LBB 88.2%
SAN 88.0%
RDU 87.6%
PIT 87.3%
DEN 87.0%
DCA 86.9%
ATL 85.2%
CHS 85.0%
TPA 84.5%
OAK 84.4%
PDX 83.8%
IND 83.6%
PNS 83.2%
JAX 82.0%
OMA 80.4%
PHX 79.8%
CLT 77.2%
BHM 76.6%
AUS 75.7%
ECP 74.6%
MEM 74.3%
STL 74.1%
MSY 74.0%
BNA 73.8%
ABQ 73.5%
MCI 73.2%
DAL 73.1%
SAT 72.2%
ELP 70.2%
HRL 70.1%
OKC 66.0%
TUL 65.9%
MAF 63.8%
CRP 57.3%

IND 78.9%
LAX 89.6%
LAS 89.2%
DEN 88.4%
MCO 87.5%
PHX 86.5%
SAN 84.9%
DAL 84.5%
RSW 82.9%
TPA 80.0%
FLL 79.7%
HOU 75.8%
BWI 74.7%
MCI 73.0%
DCA 72.1%
ATL 72.1%
BOS 69.8%
MDW 63.7%
EWR 62.2%
MSY 61.0%
LGA 51.9%

ISP 78.8%
TPA 82.2%
PBI 81.6%
MCO 81.5%
FLL 76.2%
BWI 75.5%

SAT 78.4%
DEN 88.5%
MDW 87.5%
PHX 86.2%
LAS 86.0%
SAN 84.3%
BWI 84.2%
MCI 83.5%
LAX 81.4%
MCO 80.8%
TPA 80.2%
STL 77.3%
ATL 75.9%
BNA 75.5%
HOU 75.0%
MSY 72.3%
DAL 71.2%
ELP 65.6%

JAX 78.1%
MCO 94.1%
DAL 90.1%
DEN 87.1%
HOU 84.5%
MDW 78.1%
BWI 77.5%
BNA 77.0%
ATL 73.7%

ABQ 77.6%
MDW 90.1%
MCO 89.3%
BWI 88.8%
LAX 84.5%
PDX 83.6%
DEN 83.1%
HOU 81.4%
AUS 80.4%
MCI 76.8%
SAN 76.1%
PHX 74.9%
LAS 73.7%
OAK 72.0%
DAL 69.3%

SMF 77.5%
BOI 88.6%
MDW 87.8%
BWI 85.7%
DEN 83.4%
SNA 82.7%
PHX 82.2%
DAL 81.3%
SAN 81.2%
GEG 75.8%
ONT 75.6%
SEA 74.4%
LAX 74.3%
LAS 73.3%
BUR 72.7%
SLC 72.5%
LGB 71.9%
PDX 69.8%

LIT 77.4%
LAS 82.7%
PHX 81.9%
STL 77.1%
DAL 74.2%

ONT 77.3%
DAL 93.0%
MDW 92.1%
DEN 89.5%
PDX 82.8%
LAS 76.4%
SMF 76.4%
PHX 76.4%
OAK 75.7%
SAN 73.3%
SJC 68.7%

PNS 77.2%
DEN 94.0%
MCI 92.0%
DAL 88.6%
MDW 87.4%
HOU 80.0%
BNA 73.4%

OAK 77.1%
ATL 90.7%
EWR 87.7%
MCI 87.3%
BWI 87.1%
MDW 86.5%
HOU 86.4%
CMH 85.9%
TUS 85.5%
STL 85.1%
AUS 84.0%
GEG 83.0%
DAL 82.8%
PDX 81.7%
BNA 80.5%
MSY 80.4%
SEA 80.1%
DEN 80.1%
SNA 79.9%
BOI 77.6%
LAS 77.4%
PHX 76.1%
ONT 75.2%
SAN 75.2%
LGB 74.5%
ABQ 71.9%
BUR 71.8%
LAX 71.3%
SLC 68.1%
RNO 68.1%

MEM 76.8%
DAL 85.4%
MCO 84.8%
TPA 79.3%
BWI 78.8%
MDW 70.0%
HOU 66.1%

CLT 76.2%
DAL 87.8%
BNA 79.4%
BWI 75.8%
MDW 75.1%
HOU 66.0%

SFO 75.8%
MDW 89.5%
MKE 87.7%
DAL 85.6%
LAS 85.4%
STL 83.0%
DEN 82.8%
PHX 74.4%
SAN 73.9%
SNA 73.7%
LAX 68.1%
BUR 66.4%
PDX 56.0%

SJC 75.7%
DEN 85.4%
MDW 84.8%
BWI 83.9%
SEA 82.8%
PDX 82.3%
AUS 81.1%
LAS 80.2%
PHX 79.9%
DAL 79.5%
SNA 78.8%
SAN 78.7%
BOI 76.6%
ONT 68.1%
SLC 67.9%
BUR 67.1%
LAX 65.4%
RNO 55.7%

SLC 75.7%
HOU 95.9%
MDW 90.2%
BWI 88.7%
DEN 86.6%
DAL 86.4%
SAN 74.5%
LAX 73.4%
OAK 71.6%
LAS 71.6%
PHX 71.2%
SMF 70.6%
SJC 65.1%
BUR 52.2%

SDF 75.6%
LAS 85.5%
PHX 83.0%
DEN 79.6%
MCO 78.7%
TPA 76.0%
MDW 73.3%
BWI 70.1%

BHM 74.1%
ATL 90.8%
LAS 88.4%
DAL 78.7%
MDW 76.3%
MCO 73.0%
BWI 73.0%
HOU 68.3%
TPA 66.1%

OKC 74.1%
MCO 86.0%
STL 80.8%
DEN 79.4%
LAS 77.5%
PHX 77.4%
BWI 74.9%
MDW 74.7%
DAL 68.9%
HOU 68.1%

GSP 73.8%
ATL 73.8%

RNO 73.4%
MDW 89.2%
DEN 83.5%
DAL 80.6%
PHX 76.2%
LAS 76.2%
SAN 69.9%
LAX 68.7%
OAK 65.1%
SJC 54.0%

ELP 72.0%
LAX 77.6%
LAS 77.0%
PHX 76.6%
HOU 76.0%
DAL 70.7%
AUS 66.0%
SAT 60.4%

TUL 71.6%
LAS 82.2%
DEN 78.6%
STL 74.7%
HOU 68.7%
PHX 68.5%
DAL 67.4%

BUR 71.5%
DAL 88.3%
DEN 88.0%
PDX 80.2%
PHX 77.6%
OAK 72.2%
SMF 71.4%
LAS 68.2%
SJC 67.8%
SFO 66.3%
SLC 54.7%

CAK 71.4%
ATL 71.4%

LGB 71.0%
OAK 72.5%
LAS 69.2%
DEN 68.3%
SMF 67.4%

HRL 70.9%
DAL 89.3%
HOU 71.2%
AUS 68.5%

LBB 70.7%
HOU 81.0%
DAL 71.5%
LAS 69.9%
AUS 67.3%

FNT 69.1%
MCO 76.5%
TPA 70.1%
MDW 68.9%

CVG 68.4%
BWI 70.7%
MDW 67.0%

AMA 67.8%
DAL 68.1%
LAS 66.3%

DAY 67.6%
MCO 80.0%
MDW 67.2%

MAF 67.4%
LAS 78.8%
HOU 66.7%
DAL 65.2%

CRP 59.1%
HOU 59.1%

Grand Total 81.0%

As a FF out of BUR, I notice their loads are generally lower. Does this mean they're struggling there, or is it likely a higher yielding market? (Hollywood, etc.)

55% LF on PDX-SFO ... ouch. Must be taking a bath on that but dragging down UA and AS while they're at it.

Flew a 800 back from MCO to MEM last Tues nite. It only had 90 people on it. I told the flight attendant that this was a big plane for MCO/MEM, she replied that it'll be full when it leaves MEM in the morning. Think it was going to BWI. So, there's things like positioning larger aircraft for morning runs that one must take onto account on load factors.

Jshank83 wrote:

LovePrunesAnet wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

Now that we are nearing the next schedule extension (Feb 15) does anyone have any predictions. I am always curious to see what people predict vs what happens.

A few on here rooting for XNA
say XNA-HNL. probably have to wait behind LIT-XNA to start first, however. On the new A380 fleet.

Just go big. HNL-XNA for each of their first routes.

Only if it continues on to the Marshall Islands. NWA has the largest dispora of Marshallese in the lower 48, second only to Hawaii overall.

So, once weekly, seasonal?

SumChristianus wrote:

Here are the full year load factors for WNs cities and routes (outbound loads from each city to destinations under bold heading for origin city). The number next to the bold heading is an RPM/ASM load factor for the city overall.
These are full year 2017 numbers, so some routes show may no longer exist. I filtered out routes with less than five departures performed in 2017, but some of these numbers, particularly the outliers, could be diversion flights picked up in the data. Take it with a grain of salt, but enjoy. Florida, DEN, and SJU to the load factor lists but its interesting to see WN's performance in LGA, its probably improved mostly because the really bad ((IND for example) routes were trimmed during the year, bringing up the overall average. I have no idea how CRP is holding on, but CVG didn't appear to do that well either in its first six months. They did enter with quite a bit of capacity though (to CVG) but it must be improving given the addition of DEN and PHX.

MCO 87.1%
DAY 91.9%

DAY 67.6%
MCO 80.0%

It appears that there might be enough demand for WN to add at least seasonal nonstop service to MCO from CVG with AirTran no longer around and WN no longer at DAY. Demand for flights to MCO from CVG has also increased since 2016. There are also markets close to the size of CVG or smaller than CVG that already have nonstop service to MCO on WN and that have more O&D demand to MCO than CVG does, including AUS, BUF, CLE, CMH, BDL, IND, MCI, MKE, BNA, STL, PIT, and RDU (many of which also already have nonstop service to MCO on F9 and SFB on G4). WN might be able to do well on CVG-MCO nonstop service since WN might be able to stimulate additional demand for flights to MCO from CVG if it adds CVG-MCO nonstop service. WN can also get more Dayton-area travelers to fly out of CVG instead of CMH if it adds CVG-MCO nonstop service.

SumChristianus wrote:

OKC 74.1%
MCO 86.0%

And yet WN won't give us full-time MCO service...just the sporadic once-a-week crap...and NO THEME PLANE!

Sum -

Great data you supplied, thanks. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see any international markets reported - was that intentional?

SumChristianus wrote:

Here are the full year load factors for WNs cities and routes (outbound loads from each city to destinations under bold heading for origin city). The number next to the bold heading is an RPM/ASM load factor for the city overall.
These are full year 2017 numbers, so some routes show may no longer exist. I filtered out routes with less than five departures performed in 2017, but some of these numbers, particularly the outliers, could be diversion flights picked up in the data. Take it with a grain of salt, but enjoy.

Where does this data come from?

WaywardMemphian wrote:

Flew a 800 back from MCO to MEM last Tues nite. It only had 90 people on it. I told the flight attendant that this was a big plane for MCO/MEM, she replied that it'll be full when it leaves MEM in the morning. Think it was going to BWI. So, there's things like positioning larger aircraft for morning runs that one must take onto account on load factors.

Another example is a late evening PVD BWI which misses most connections and is too late departing for the business traveler. Perhaps it is valuable for freight and mail or too many RONs at PVD, but it is very light on pax and no doubt puts a little chip in the LFs. Moving the early DCA to 9AM and losing all the gov't day travel also contributes. A little here, a little there......

lat41 wrote:

WaywardMemphian wrote:

Flew a 800 back from MCO to MEM last Tues nite. It only had 90 people on it. I told the flight attendant that this was a big plane for MCO/MEM, she replied that it'll be full when it leaves MEM in the morning. Think it was going to BWI. So, there's things like positioning larger aircraft for morning runs that one must take onto account on load factors.

Another example is a late evening PVD BWI which misses most connections and is too late departing for the business traveler. Perhaps it is valuable for freight and mail or too many RONs at PVD, but it is very light on pax and no doubt puts a little chip in the LFs. Moving the early DCA to 9AM and losing all the gov't day travel also contributes. A little here, a little there......

A 175 seater on MCO/MEM on a Tues night is a bit much so the Morning routing must be a money maker. I certainly enjoyed the space. We flew down on a Sat 10 days prior on a 700 and it was a sardine can and 100% full and had prices of well over 200 bucks for months on end.

barney captain wrote:

Sum -

Great data you supplied, thanks. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see any international markets reported - was that intentional?

Where does this data come from?

Sorry, should have referenced, some excel manipulation of the USDOT T100 data from https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.asp?DB_ID=110&DB_Name=Air%20Carrier%20Statistics%20%28Form%2041%20Traffic%29-%20%20U.S.%20Carriers&DB_Short_Name=Air%20Carriers#

The full year 2017 is only available for the domestic dataset, so thats all I was able to show.

The usual caveats on the meaning of load factor and it not necessarily correlating directly with profitability apply to analysis of these numbers (a full flight doesn't gurantee profitability...for example)