David_itl wrote:And the main talking point. Enhancing rail connectivity with the airport's railway station and introducing an APD holiday should, according to the airport, allow the following
Interesting presentation that I've not seen before. Some comments on the following - I've played around with the formatting to make it easier to follow.
Unserved routes to become viable:
Shanghai - a regular service (4/5x weekly) is likely already viable, with Air China sitting on the permissions for reasons unknown.
Guangzhou - Hainan have applied to serve this route, presumably on a 3/4x weekly seasonal basis.
Tokyo - interesting that this has appeared as ANA and JAL seem set to expand in Europe. It would be tough to see one of the big Japanese carriers operate this route, but I wonder whether VS or IAG might see a future opportunity here.
Bangkok - the third largest unserved market in the world. It's a surprise that TG, NokScoot or TCX have not jumped on it. Makes up much of the MEB's success at MAN. How might they react with a series of quick fire launches to BKK DEL and BOM...
Kuala Lumpur - previously served by MH. I find it difficult to see them return (you never know) but this may be a TCX, or IAG opportunity.
Phuket - now served on an ad hoc basis by TUi.
Seoul - an increasingly large unserved market. I'd not be surprised to see either of KE or OZ within the next 3-5 years.
Maldives - presumably at TCX or TUi possibility.
Colombo - I'm not sure Sri Lankan would be interested in MAN?
Johannesburg - possible VS route, albeit on a seasonal basis. I don't see JNB and CPT, but could see one or the other.
Cape Town - TCX are operating ad hoc services this winter, but this is another possible seasonal VS route (more likely than JNB in my view).
Durban - TCX? In any event I don't see this as likely.
Lagos - not really sure who could serve this route other than VS? It feels unlikely in any circumstance.
Manila - I find this incredibly unlikely.
Delhi - likely to be viable already, and with a range of possible carriers (VS feels the most likely) it feels unlikely that it will be unserved much longer.
Mumbai - as the third largest O&D market in Europe, it feels like a direct service cannot be far away. Jet feels the most likely at this point.
Amritsar - as AI have recently started this from BHX, I doubt the market exists for MAN as well.
Perth - this can only by QF - which would be interesting. MAN is the third largest European Kangaroo market (behind London and Paris). I would describe this as improbable but not impossible.
Tampa - feels like a VS route, particularly if VS's MAN fleet becomes all A330 and require additional rotations to Florida. TCX would be another probable operator.
Dallas - AA used to operate this, but I don't see them doing so in the near future.
Denver - this may be a winter seasonal ski route for TCX/TUi, but I don't see it going any further than this.
São Paulo - another seasonal possibility for TCX. I don't see a full service carrier on this for some years (i.e. Until Brazil meets its economic potential).
Dhaka - Biman seem intent on restarting JFK via MAN. We wait and see...
Riyadh - a route which operates (or did last year) on a seasonal basis.
Frequency increases on the following routes:
Beijing - this should stabilise at around 4x weekly in winter and daily in summer. A daily year round service is a realistic short term objective.
Hong Kong - recently a daily route, with legitimate stories that it would go up to 11x weekly within 18-24 months. Double daily is not unrealistic.
Boston - getting one carrier (likely VS) to operate this year round is a realistic objective for the next 3-5 years.
San Francisco - same as BOS, with VS the most likely airline.
Los Angeles - the key is, first, to get a "full service" carrier on the route and, second, get a year round service (most likely with that full service carrier). VS feels like the most likely option, which could tie in with Virgin Australia on the Kangaroo route.
Vancouver - a longer season by TS would be a start. It is not inconceivable that Rouge could operate this route. I don't see year round at anything other than 1/2 weekly as realistic in the short term.
Jeddah - this is already 5x weekly, and I don't see it as going anything above daily (particularly if direct routes to India take off).
Lahore - I'm not clear about the current nature of this route, but it could (in theory) draw more patronage from BHX and LBA with better transport (albeit these places have their own sustainable market).
Las Vegas - year round Vegas... what's not to love?
Singapore - there is a difference between the performance to SIN and IAH on SQ51/52. It is sensible for SQ to add more capacity on the MAN-SIN sector, but it is it not clear how (adding a terminator causes scheduling problems).
Miami - no longer served by TCX. Might VS serve MIA as part of a rejig of Florida services?
Toronto - it is realistic to seek a regular service from a full service carrier. This would almost certainly be Air Canada, who don't seem interested (other than Rouge, who are a summer seasonal). TS are offering more winter capacity, so it will be interesting to see how this performs.
Chicago - the route has degenerated significantly in the last 2/3 years, and is now a short summer seasonal route. I'd not be surprised if AA withdraw, so we might be looking at UA, or TCX as an alternative.
Washington - UA have since pulled out, so we see who might be interested in this route moving forward.