More new built A380s to BA this year? See the story https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/airbus-is-said-to-be-in-talks-with-british-airways-on-more-a380s

Can't be true. Simon Calder pronounced this to be impossible, and the A380 dead, in the Indy, earlier this week.

I would like to see more A380's BA fleet. Since the LHR is so busy. The A380 would be great way to increase capacity on certain routes.

I saw this coming from a mile away. This was the 2nd worst kept secret in the industry, after EK's desire for another A380 order.

As a A380 fan I better check my blood pressure these days I always wondered what to do after all these 747 retire. How many are still in service at this point?

LH might even be in it, too. They even started to move some to MUC.

The U.K. carrier, a unit of IAG SA, has said in the past that it was looking for six to seven second-hand A380s. Instead, it’s looking at new ones, said the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. Refurbishing used models of the 500-seat behemoth for BA’s needs is too expensive, one of the people said.

John Leahy, Airbus’s outgoing head of sales, said on Bloomberg Television Friday that he was confident the European planemaker would secure one more A380 order this year. That customer is British Airways, the people said.

So BA is in the market for additional A380 lift and figured refurbishing is too costly. Add Leahy to the mix who can offer some good deals due to his retirement and both parties may reach an agreement.

KarelXWB wrote:

So BA is in the market for additional A380 lift and figured refurbishing is too costly. Add Leahy to the mix who can offer some good deals due to his retirement and both parties may reach an agreement.

May I ask you to elaborate on those bold words?

BREECH wrote:

KarelXWB wrote:

So BA is in the market for additional A380 lift and figured refurbishing is too costly. Add Leahy to the mix who can offer some good deals due to his retirement and both parties may reach an agreement.

May I ask you to elaborate on those bold words?

Leahy is retiring this year. This is pretty well known. Airbus has already announced his replacement.

I think it was the implication that they are allowing him to write bad deals so he can go out in a blaze of glory. I am not sure that is what was meant though.

Polot wrote:

BREECH wrote:

KarelXWB wrote:

So BA is in the market for additional A380 lift and figured refurbishing is too costly. Add Leahy to the mix who can offer some good deals due to his retirement and both parties may reach an agreement.

May I ask you to elaborate on those bold words?

Leahy is retiring this year. This is pretty well known. Airbus has already announced his replacement.

But why would he have the authority to offer better deals because he is retiring?

To be honest at this point I think Airbus would be fairly flexible with deals to get any A380s not destined for EK signed. Linking it with Leahy's retirement can further help PR, and gives a firmer deadline to customers to try and get them to agree to the deal.

mat66 wrote:

As a A380 fan I better check my blood pressure these days I always wondered what to do after all these 747 retire. How many are still in service at this point?

LH might even be in it, too. They even started to move some to MUC.

I guess the big difference is that LH does have the 779 coming online (20x to replace the 13x remaining 744), while BA's order for A35K (18x) is nowhere near enough to replace the 30+ B744 that still operate. Yes, BA got some B78X on order also, but I see some of those replacing older B772/77E also. Plus LH got the 748s

It is no surprise BA wants more. Maybe all these comments made so far by BA in the sense that they want to go for second hand ones have the goal of giving Airbus an incentive to put together a very attractive proposal for new ones for BA. As mentioned, the capacity situation at LHR certainly makes BA a quite obvious customer of more A380s. I think BA has stated their 744s still have some life left, but maybe BA could go for an accelerated replacement of 744s in order to have an A380-77W-A35K combo of VLAs for their highest demand routes.

Well just call me Nostradomus - in the now locked thread about possible program shutdown without an EK order, I posted that in the end the EK order would happen and that BA would place a follow-up order. I'm two for two, maybe I should go play the lotto

KarelXWB wrote:

So BA is in the market for additional A380 lift and figured refurbishing is too costly. Add Leahy to the mix who can offer some good deals due to his retirement and both parties may reach an agreement.

So what happens to the older A380's? Do they just get scrapped? That couldn't possibly be good for residual values for other airlines' A380's. Is Airbus going to develop a P2F program to convert A380's that are coming off lease?

GlenP wrote:

Can't be true. Simon Calder pronounced this to be impossible, and the A380 dead, in the Indy, earlier this week.

LOL... I cant stand the guy... most of what he says is a load of tripe.

As for Ba and the A380 I'm really surprised they havent got more in their fleet yet. They can certainly use twice what they have now!

Polot wrote:

Linking it with Leahy's retirement can further help PR, and gives a firmer deadline to customers to try and get them to agree to the deal.

How? How exactly does his retirement (yes, I heard) can "further help PR"? How exactly does it "give a firmer deadline to customers..."? After Leahy retires Airbus sales will stop? Nothing that you or Karel just said about Leahy makes sense to me. What do you mean?

This is an aircraft BA sorely needs more of. Look that the schedules, they are spread woefully thin, switching on a regular basis between JNB/MIA/ORD/SFO. It’s a premium heavy aircraft for BA too, 14F/97J/55W, but still has 300+ Y seats, where the 747 has 145 in the 14F/86J/30W configuration. Like EK, BA will be able to use the 77W/350 and 787-10 fleets to complement the A380, particularly where cargo is concerned.

IAG are interested, as they have said. They want a bargain though. With EK carrying the cost for keeping the line open IAG may we’ll be able to get a deal. Any additional A380s sold are gravy.

StTim wrote:

I think it was the implication that they are allowing him to write bad deals so he can go out in a blaze of glory. I am not sure that is what was meant though.

That's my suspicion, too, and I sure hope they don't mean that. That would be a disgusting insult to an amazing person that Leahy is.

zakuivcustom wrote:

mat66 wrote:

As a A380 fan I better check my blood pressure these days I always wondered what to do after all these 747 retire. How many are still in service at this point?

LH might even be in it, too. They even started to move some to MUC.

I guess the big difference is that LH does have the 779 coming online (20x to replace the 13x remaining 744), while BA's order for A35K (18x) is nowhere near enough to replace the 30+ B744 that still operate. Yes, BA got some B78X on order also, but I see some of those replacing older B772/77E also. Plus LH got the 748s

Well, LH already said last year that they may have bought too few A350s and too many 777X, and are pondering a slower delivery rate for the latter.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... serve-cash
They have an orphan in the 747-8i, which Boeing has pretty much given up on as well, so if LH buy any additional VLAs, I'd definitely have my money on those being A380s.
That said - BA already made public their interest in more A380s, as they are very happy with the plane, but not happy with the prices for new-built A380s. So their interest/need is more iminent than LH's, whom I wouldn't see ordering more before 2020. And the whole thing about price can usually be tackled.

It's interesting how within the space of less than a week, Leahy has gone from basically saying "EK needs to safe this plane" to "I'm highly confident we'll see at least one more A380 order this year".
To be honest, if I were BA, LH or any other airline looking at the A380, the EK order would give me some additional confidence in the programme, because the EK order means that I'm definitely going to get A380s I order today for 2023. Before the EK order, I wouldn't have placed an order for 2020 or later orders with any confidence at all.

flyingclrs727 wrote:

So what happens to the older A380's? Do they just get scrapped? That couldn't possibly be good for residual values for other airlines' A380's. Is Airbus going to develop a P2F program to convert A380's that are coming off lease?

I suspect that most, if not all, of the early frames with wiring issues will be scrapped, as refurbishing them will likely be very expensive, though a few might just find a buyer if someone is prepared to take them almost as-is.

I doubt we will see how the secondary market will pan out until multiple frames without the early-build issues come available.

Part of the problem for BA in wanting secondhand frames is that the frames most likely to come available within a reasonable period will be early build frames with those wiring and weight issues, which is why they are looking at new builds (and they have, in fact, been talking to Airbus for quite some time - the Brexit vote put many BA plans on slowdown/hold for a while).

Refurbishing used airplanes is too expensive, so they’re gonna buy new instead? Something amiss here.

flyingclrs727 wrote:

So what happens to the older A380's? Do they just get scrapped? That couldn't possibly be good for residual values for other airlines' A380's. Is Airbus going to develop a P2F program to convert A380's that are coming off lease?

A few early birds will probably be dismantled for parts. The rest... oh, there's a VERY long queue of airlines who want a used A380 at half the price of a new one. Starting with BA and ending with every holiday charterer... Is that a word?

BA have 12 aircraft, do they need 12 more, or less?

BrianDromey wrote:

This is an aircraft BA sorely needs more of. Look that the schedules, they are spread woefully thin, switching on a regular basis between JNB/MIA/ORD/SFO. It’s a premium heavy aircraft for BA too, 14F/97J/55W, but still has 300+ Y seats, where the 747 has 145 in the 14F/86J/30W configuration. Like EK, BA will be able to use the 77W/350 and 787-10 fleets to complement the A380, particularly where cargo is concerned.

Wait... BA has ALL of those? 777, A350, AND B787!? Talk about fleet commonality! Or do they want the laurels of KLM in the number of aircraft types?

BrianDromey wrote:

IAG are interested, as they have said. They want a bargain though. With EK carrying the cost for keeping the line open IAG may we’ll be able to get a deal. Any additional A380s sold are gravy.

They are mostly interested in avoiding the daily mail writing an "editorial" that will say that this deal is very bad for them because of this and that, and then the entire British population getting sickened on them for "wasting money that could've well been spent elsewhere".

PPVRA wrote:

Refurbishing used airplanes is too expensive, so they’re gonna buy new instead? Something amiss here.

That's BA logic in a nutshell. If you're missing the beef in a sandwich, forget the sandwich and fire up the BBQ instead.

With a production rate of 6/yr and Emirate's order filling the order book for the next ten years, when will BA get these birds?

What happened to BA‘s A380-options? Did they expire?

neomax wrote:

PPVRA wrote:

Refurbishing used airplanes is too expensive, so they’re gonna buy new instead? Something amiss here.

That's BA logic in a nutshell. If you're missing the beef in a sandwich, forget the sandwich and fire up the BBQ instead.

Nothing amiss for the right new price. Uses A380s have a value as spares and no new aircraft maintenance holiday.

Plus Europe is waking up to any harm Brexit has on the UK will hurt them 3X or 4X as much. Sensible negotiations probably has BA increasing their need.

Lightsaber

JAAlbert wrote:

With a production rate of 6/yr and Emirate's order filling the order book for the next ten years, when will BA get these birds?

I am sure that is not an issue. If more airlines order A380, Airbus can cancel the plans to reduce the output or increase it from 6 if the reduction has been already implemented.

I am really glad for more orders for A380 which I also agree is the best plane on the sky now. Very comfortable and very safe ( 0 hull loss so far). I think eventually carriers like TK will order some (~10 for trunk routes from Istanbul).

BREECH wrote:

Polot wrote:

Linking it with Leahy's retirement can further help PR, and gives a firmer deadline to customers to try and get them to agree to the deal.

How? How exactly does his retirement (yes, I heard) can "further help PR"? How exactly does it "give a firmer deadline to customers..."? After Leahy retires Airbus sales will stop? Nothing that you or Karel just said about Leahy makes sense to me. What do you mean?

Leahy has been part of Airbus for the entire existence of the A380 from concept to delivery, so he knows the customers and demands for the A380 very well. This also is a tremendous help for the airlines as they can get straight to business having established the grounds for the A380 years before. When Leahy (along with Bregier and Enders) retires, airlines' relationship with Airbus will essentially be reset to scratch with the entire management and sales team wiped clean. This is as big a problem for their future ability to sell Airbii as it is for the airlines to learn the style of the new Airbus which will take a loooong time. Trust me, even if it costs more, it is definitely in the benefit of airlines to work with Airbus's familiar faces while they still know them well and land an order with Leahy at the helm before the new team comes in, which will jeopardize their ability to sell the A380 and delay any orders for a substantial period of time until the airlines can understand the new Airbus's strategy. With the retirement of the Airbus 3, there most definitely is a looming deadline which can and no doubt will be used to secure an order as soon as possible, hence the BA rumors.

And what about Willie Walsh's notion that he might stick a couple in Iberia service and maybe Aer Lingus too ? Might that also come to fruition ?

JannEejit wrote:

And what about Willie Walsh's notion that he might stick a couple in Iberia service and maybe Aer Lingus too ? Might that also come to fruition ?

I was just thinking the same thing. English language media is always way too quick to just assume IAG = BA. I assume if that actually happens they'd still be operated by BA either on a full wet lease or just directly with BA flight numbers depending on traffic rights and what happens with Brexit.

PPVRA wrote:

Refurbishing used airplanes is too expensive, so they’re gonna buy new instead? Something amiss here.

not really.

Widebodies are very expensive to reconfigure and on top of that early A380s have a host of issues that will make that reconfiguration even more costly. Add in the lack of used Trent models on the market (or coming up on the market) and it makes total sense.

You also get all the benefits of new airplanes (latest PIPS, latest weight savings, maintenance holiday for a few years etc).



*All of this is assuming Airbus gets the price down enough to make it worth while. *

neomax wrote:

When Leahy (along with Bregier and Enders) retires, airlines' relationship with Airbus will essentially be reset to scratch with the entire management and sales team wiped clean.

Right! When Pharaoh Leahy leaves, all his concubines, subordinates and personal slaves will be killed and buried with him. That's how it usually works at "Airbii".

In my post "Fact Based Discussion on IAG for 2018" of three weeks ago, I wrote this:

4. Friday, February 23, 2018 is the date for IAG's full year results. We will be given an update on their thoughts for 2018.
Will IAG have another set of cracking good financial results with an increased dividend, whilst also increasing their huge cash pile?

and this:

6. IAG-BA holds option for 7 more A380. How likely is IAG to have confirmed these options by 23 Feb 2018? For early delivery to enable a trickle down of capacity expansion to permit a slightly more aggressive future growth plan from all IAG airline brands? Would IAG be investing in success with internal funds (not leases) before interest rate rise, as A380's may be set to have an exceptionally long service life, and leasors are currently spooked by the A380?

7. If not A380s, then how much more long haul IAG capacity of a different sort is needed? Will it be A350-1000 for the trickle down? Or more used aeroplanes? Will existing options be brought forward, and new options taken up? Will there be no more 787s other than those ordered and optioned and no 777-9s?

So far so good. There are a total of 11 points up for discussion.

PPVRA wrote:

Refurbishing used airplanes is too expensive, so they’re gonna buy new instead? Something amiss here.

Not really. The only frames available soon would be ones with the wiring issues, so refurbishment will mean that lots of the cabin fittings will need to be done differently from the way it has been done on their existing fleet (i.e. lots of additional customisation costs). There will also be a mountain of additional/different paperwork. Add in the cost of maintenance of multiple significantly different versions of everything and it becomes easier and easier to make the case for new build.

New build lets them save a lot of money by copying their existing cabin fits and much of the paperwork.

They could, of course, wait until non-early-build frames become available, but I think BA know they will need more capacity before that happens.

neomax wrote:

BREECH wrote:

Polot wrote:

Linking it with Leahy's retirement can further help PR, and gives a firmer deadline to customers to try and get them to agree to the deal.

How? How exactly does his retirement (yes, I heard) can "further help PR"? How exactly does it "give a firmer deadline to customers..."? After Leahy retires Airbus sales will stop? Nothing that you or Karel just said about Leahy makes sense to me. What do you mean?

Leahy has been part of Airbus for the entire existence of the A380 from concept to delivery, so he knows the customers and demands for the A380 very well. This also is a tremendous help for the airlines as they can get straight to business having established the grounds for the A380 years before. When Leahy (along with Bregier and Enders) retires, airlines' relationship with Airbus will essentially be reset to scratch with the entire management and sales team wiped clean. This is as big a problem for their future ability to sell Airbii as it is for the airlines to learn the style of the new Airbus which will take a loooong time. Trust me, even if it costs more, it is definitely in the benefit of airlines to work with Airbus's familiar faces while they still know them well and land an order with Leahy at the helm before the new team comes in, which will jeopardize their ability to sell the A380 and delay any orders for a substantial period of time until the airlines can understand the new Airbus's strategy. With the retirement of the Airbus 3, there most definitely is a looming deadline which can and no doubt will be used to secure an order as soon as possible, hence the BA rumors.

Corporations since the earliest day have had to face the issue of retiring executives, and only the most stupid have had problems. These guys fill a role, and are expected by Terms Of Refernce to fulfill that role, and to do so the the level of transparency required by the TOR.

I wonder how often JL and some airline CEO have had late-night dinners with all sorts of bonga-bonga available on their own! I don't think that mega deals are done like that anymore. I am sure that in most/all cases, the customer team and the supplier team have a close relationship, built up during the negotiations. That relationship will still be in place when one team member from either side "disappears". JL retiring does not leave a hole on Airbus sales teams, I'm sure there is plenty of continuity to keep the 2 parties knowledgeable about each other!

BREECH wrote:

neomax wrote:

When Leahy (along with Bregier and Enders) retires, airlines' relationship with Airbus will essentially be reset to scratch with the entire management and sales team wiped clean.

Right! When Pharaoh Leahy leaves, all his concubines, subordinates and personal slaves will be killed and buried with him. That's how it usually works at "Airbii".

I like that.
IAG decide what BA get.

If BA would order more, any chance VS would ever change their minds about their existing 380 order?

BREECH wrote:

neomax wrote:

When Leahy (along with Bregier and Enders) retires, airlines' relationship with Airbus will essentially be reset to scratch with the entire management and sales team wiped clean.

Right! When Pharaoh Leahy leaves, all his concubines, subordinates and personal slaves will be killed and buried with him. That's how it usually works at "Airbii".

They won't be starting from scratch but with new management comes new personalities and new management styles. Airlines will adjust, but there will be a transitional period where everyone will be testing the waters and getting a feel for the new Airbus.

From memory I believe the original BA A380 order was for 12 plus 7 options. Could it be that IAG will just exercise these purchase options?

I think IAG is cautious about ordering too many A380’s because flying four engine aircraft during recessions can be immensely costly. Having a larger twin engined fleet is not only more cost efficient but easier to utilise across the widest destinations in the route network. Remember, there aren’t many airports around the world that are A380 ready. BA could easily utilise 24 aircraft in my opinion so I wouldn’t be surprised if they exercise the outstanding options and then add an additional 6.

Remember, Heathrow will expand in the next decade with an additional runway. Even if the airport goes for the shorter third runway option, this will free up capacity on the two existing full length runways. This will enable BA to expand frequencies (key for business travellers) by utilising long haul twin aircraft. For business travellers, frequency is more important that aircraft type, and the A350 and 787 are brilliant aircraft.

Polot wrote:

BREECH wrote:

neomax wrote:

When Leahy (along with Bregier and Enders) retires, airlines' relationship with Airbus will essentially be reset to scratch with the entire management and sales team wiped clean.

Right! When Pharaoh Leahy leaves, all his concubines, subordinates and personal slaves will be killed and buried with him. That's how it usually works at "Airbii".

They won't be starting from scratch but with new management comes new personalities and new management styles. Airlines will adjust, but there will be a transitional period where everyone will be testing the waters and getting a feel for the new Airbus.

Say what you want, but the "new guys" are just taking over on-going responsibilities from others, with an entire company organised as it was the day before

The "new guys" still have 99.9% of the "old guys" to continue to help sell the products

The products are not snake oil - the market knows what the Airbus products are

JH is/was the consummate salesman, by all accounts, but I bet he didnt sell 1 Airbus plane without direct help and much support from a well-structured and well-run organisation supporting him! His successor inherits that organisation

Polot wrote:

They won't be starting from scratch but with new management comes new personalities and new management styles. Airlines will adjust, but there will be a transitional period where everyone will be testing the waters and getting a feel for the new Airbus.

No, there won't be! I may work for a very, very, very, crappy company, but I know that billions-dollars deals are not done between two CEOs in an expesive brothel between a blondie and a dark one. Every deal is the result of work of hundreds of people who each do their part. My very, very, very, crappy company has a huge sales force and we know our counterparts in the companies that we deal with. And if our boss leaves, nothing much will change. Leahy is the frontman, but there are lots of people behind him. One of them will simply step up and take his place. The whole sales team will remain the same.

What you describe is only important if there are kick-backs involved. And if that's how you think business is done, maybe I'm not the one working for a very, very, very, crappy company.

I heard down the grapevine they wanted 4 more from a BA source.

However, they have 36 747's to replace with 12 787-10's, 18 A350's and and remaining 787-8/9's to come. Hard to see where the slots would come from unless a handful more 777's got taken to Gatwick, unless the number was indeed around 4.

BAorNoWay wrote:

From memory I believe the original BA A380 order was for 12 plus 7 options. Could it be that IAG will just exercise these purchase options?

I think IAG is cautious about ordering too many A380’s because flying four engine aircraft during recessions can be immensely costly. Having a larger twin engined fleet is not only more cost efficient but easier to utilise across the widest destinations in the route network. Remember, there aren’t many airports around the world that are A380 ready. BA could easily utilise 24 aircraft in my opinion so I wouldn’t be surprised if they exercise the outstanding options and then add an additional 6.

Remember, Heathrow will expand in the next decade with an additional runway. Even if the airport goes for the shorter third runway option, this will free up capacity on the two existing full length runways. This will enable BA to expand frequencies (key for business travellers) by utilising long haul twin aircraft. For business travellers, frequency is more important that aircraft type, and the A350 and 787 are brilliant aircraft.

I have to step in and bring a fresh breeze of reality to your contribution.

You write as if LHR is already building a third runway, and that LHR has the sole responsibility to decide if it has the longer or shorter version (your words)

LHR has 2 runways - that's all! It might like to have 3, or 4, or 5, or .................. That is not anything "LHR" can decide. Even after all the successive and accepted recommendations for a third runway at LHR, it has still not been approved, and is maybe not even on the current government's agenda for possible approval

Even when approved, UK PLC will take for-ever to build it, and it will be 10 times over budget before it is completed!

BA would be crazy to make any corporate plans that assumed a third runway at LHR, rather it should plan on the status quo, and order aircraft accordingly

I find the following article gives a brief look over current situation of European airports:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ort-charge

In relation to this post I find it interesting that Heathrow with its only two runways is managing to stay at top of passengers count in part by airlines shifting to bigger planes, I would not say it is all about utilizing A380 to achieving this but at the same time I would not argue against A380 not being a big factor in it. I also would not say we will see another airline with 100+ A380 fleet in the world besides Emirates (again, who knows!), but I would not disregard the fact that some of the present A380 operators would top of their fleets with few units given their home base hubs are getting more congested over time. For airports in mainland Europe, I think this should show sometime in 2020’s ( ). But BA with its home base in Heathrow, I reckon if an airline see a need for this VLA at least in next two to three years then it would be very logical they will be start looking, talking & planning their order now.

sassiciai wrote:

JH is/was the consummate salesman, by all accounts, but I bet he didnt sell 1 Airbus plane without direct help and much support from a well-structured and well-run organisation supporting him! His successor inherits that organisation

Shh. Can't let common sense get in the way of the idolatry, which I confess to falling into on occasion. If the guys under JL had pulses they obviously learned plenty from The Man, and they will do just fine without him. (aside/ Let's hope the bribery stuff wasn't a factor.)

BA had options for 7, and if they do end up taking any they will be at the LOWER of option or market, right? And the obvious "But, but, but Brexit!". I thought Britain was supposed to fall into the sea. And let's cut the silliness about future A388s going to EI and IB. Those birds will be painted red, white and blue.

KarelXWB wrote:

So BA is in the market for additional A380 lift and figured refurbishing is too costly. Add Leahy to the mix who can offer some good deals due to his retirement and both parties may reach an agreement.

StTim wrote:

I think it was the implication that they are allowing him to write bad deals so he can go out in a blaze of glory. I am not sure that is what was meant though.

Read his post again. The the exact word that he used was good. I'm not sure how you manage to turn good into bad.

cledaybuck wrote:

But why would he have the authority to offer better deals because he is retiring?

Because he has a proven record while the new guy still has to prove himself.

airbazar wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

But why would he have the authority to offer better deals because he is retiring?

Because he has a proven record while the new guy still has to prove himself.

Correct. Can you imagine Enders or Bregier saying "Sorry, John you can't sell them for that"? His successor doesn't have anything close to that clout yet.
That poor guy has real big shoes to fill. He'd better be Steve Young to Joe Montana, and we know that scenario is very rare. (American football reference).