I look at this as "Emirates is willing to take 36 A380s if Airbus is willing to sell them at or below cost." For strategic reasons, Airbus would like to keep the pipeline primed. Emirates knows this. So Emirates would have extracted the maximum value from their position as sole prospective customer.

GE90man wrote:

Yes! Great news! Hope to see more A380s in other colors in the near future

Don't get your hope up too high. While limited to the trans-Pacific flights, this study shows the draw backs of the 747 and A380.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-17/q ... dy/9333616

The A380 fits Emirates as they only fly from one hub. China has many cities in which their airlines can establish secondary hubs for point-to-point flights. Heck, I just came back from Vietnam and they have 3-4 possible international airports that can accommodate point to point flights.

bt

The A380 was revealed on this day in 2005. Coincidence much?

Waterbomber wrote:

No surprises, great news for the program. It's not a homerun, but definitely a "triple".
What I see happening though is QF taking its 12 deferred units. It's not going to happen this year, but give QF the time to realise that their non-stop twin kangaroo operation is not viable and they'll be knocking on Airbus' doors for a 350-400 seat A380LR+ (low density, with activated center tank and higher MTOW) to fly the route, perhaps in a JV with BA. If QF doesn't do it themselves, perhaps BA will. Or perhaps VS...

Qantas only has 8 A388's not taken up not 12. They have also been on record as saying they will not take any more A388's. Once the current A388's are done with that is it. Furthermore whatever QF decides to go with whether it be the 778 or A359ULR they wont be just ordering them for SYD-JFK and SYD-LHR but they will also be used on other normal routes within their network which a A388ULR simply wont work on. Finally a QF/BA JV seems highly unlikely

Well this is good news to wake up to!
The engine selection will be interesting. I'm guessing they'll just stick with the T900 as the order isn't really big enough to justify the certification of the T7000 or GEnx. Same goes for any other improvements. Unless some or most of their current backlog gets the same treatment. Should be to keep the line ticking until the decision of a NEO is made in a few years.

Congrats to Airbus and EK.

SC430 wrote:

grbauc wrote:

Has a passenger Im glad.. A380 have made getting good J class seats possible. Has a Aviation fan im stoked, I love the variety and even though she's not the pretty thing the 747 is its nice to see lined up at LAX. Has a Boeing fan im glad because A healthy Airbus is better for the industry.

How does this make for a healthier Airbus. It just guaranteed continued production at a rate the loses money. Every A380 delivered is negative to profitability using cash that could be invested developing profitable models. If I were an Airbus stockholder, I would be angry. As a Boeing stockholder i'm happy Airbus is willing to throw money away just to get a 36 frame order on the books.

What would Airbus develop right now? Both the A320NEO and A350 families WILL be profitable. The A35K just got certified with the first delivery yet to commence. And A350 ramp-up still in progress. A320NEO deliveries are still in ramp-up too and the A320CEO still has a healthy backlog. The A330NEO is also still in certification. Airbus are not going to be in a hurry to develop anything else right now. They have also said that the losses on the A380 are not material.

dtw2hyd wrote:

SomebodyInTLS wrote:

.... But support and maintenance will obviously still bring in money from those frames over another couple of decades.

Does this consider the non-existent secondary market condition?

If there is no secondary market and old frames go straight to scrappers after 12 years, there will be a lot of remarketed parts. Less money to supply chain.

Not sure what point you are trying to make considering there are no frames for a secondary market yet. Nobody expected the early build frames to be taken up anyway.

Just 36? I thought they were negotiating for a much larger number of aircraft. Or perhaps, I'm just used to Emirates ordering in the triple digits!

JAAlbert wrote:

Just 36? I thought they were negotiating for a much larger number of aircraft. Or perhaps, I'm just used to Emirates ordering in the triple digits!

At list prices this is "only" an US$ 16 billion order.

It was and is a near thing. Airbus and its suppliers get and maintain production at their new minimum of 6 planes a year. EK gets a guarantee of ten years of production. Small question, might EK be pushing for at least one more PIP? And the most comfortable plane will be here for a good piece longer.

Leahy’s finally manages to close the additional a380 orders he had claimed the last four year. After airbus going public with plans to shutter the line to hold EK hostage here, I suspect it will be a Pyrrhic victor, and other carriers will treat the plane with even more skepticism, but we will see.

EK fell prey here to the bankers delimitation. When you owe the bank money, you have a problem. When you owe them too much, they have a problem. EK is now forced to order a plane with few of the improvements they asked for.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

It was and is a near thing. Airbus and its suppliers get and maintain production at their new minimum of 6 planes a year. EK gets a guarantee of ten years of production. Small question, might EK be pushing for at least one more PIP? And the most comfortable plane will be here for a good piece longer.

Ek bluffed, trying to get more out of Airbus, while airbus had all of the leverage. It’s game over here for EK and their additional asks.

boerje wrote:

JAAlbert wrote:

Just 36? I thought they were negotiating for a much larger number of aircraft. Or perhaps, I'm just used to Emirates ordering in the triple digits!

At list prices this is "only" an US$ 16 billion order.

Assuming $200M each real sale price ie., $100M for engines and $100M rest for 20x commitment.

It is a $2B frame commitment with TBD engine contract.

$20M buys a lot of PR.

Great news for Airbus and the A380! Congratulations.

Anything known (rumored) as to the price Emirates was able to get them for?

Tugg

dtw2hyd wrote:

boerje wrote:

JAAlbert wrote:

Just 36? I thought they were negotiating for a much larger number of aircraft. Or perhaps, I'm just used to Emirates ordering in the triple digits!

At list prices this is "only" an US$ 16 billion order.

Assuming $200M each real sale price ie., $100M for engines and $100M rest for 20x commitment.

It is a $2B frame commitment with TBD engine contract.

$20M buys a lot of PR.

HIGHLY doubt they are getting the them for less than half of list...

I think Emirates will go with RR for the engines.

dtw2hyd wrote:

boerje wrote:

JAAlbert wrote:

Just 36? I thought they were negotiating for a much larger number of aircraft. Or perhaps, I'm just used to Emirates ordering in the triple digits!

At list prices this is "only" an US$ 16 billion order.

Assuming $200M each real sale price ie., $100M for engines and $100M rest for 20x commitment.

It is a $2B frame commitment with TBD engine contract.

$20M buys a lot of PR.

We all know the A380 isn't the big moneymaker. What is important is that Airbus will build the A380 for another decade and the door is still open for a NEO.

spacecookie wrote:

boom, the plane who all told is dead(me included) is more alive than ever.

Good news for the A-380 but 20 firm orders and 16 options is hardly a "turned the corner" moment.

Slug71 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

boerje wrote:

At list prices this is "only" an US$ 16 billion order.

Assuming $200M each real sale price ie., $100M for engines and $100M rest for 20x commitment.

It is a $2B frame commitment with TBD engine contract.

$20M buys a lot of PR.

HIGHLY doubt they are getting the them for less than half of list...

50% is standard. There were cases of 65%. 55% is doable for a slow-moving end-of-line product.

DWC wrote:

I also surmised elsewhere that JL would not leave without a landmark deal, specially that it is he & Jean Pierson who talked Airbus into the A380 adventure, so there was an added personal commitment to a programme he officially strongly believed in. Besides, him leaving with his cherished programme in limbo would have been a stain in his career & a certain failure history would have retained against him and Airbus.

I'm not sure that it's a good thing for a corporation to allow an executive to make deals in order to improve their personal legacy.

Since this tentative deal is a "kick the can down the road" kind of affair, maybe it is being pushed forward to give Leahy's successors a means to blame him for prolonging the agony if the often repeated prediction of the future strength of the VLA market never happens.

Time will tell.

Bald1983 wrote:

spacecookie wrote:

boom, the plane who all told is dead(me included) is more alive than ever.

Good news for the A-380 but 20 firm orders and 16 options is hardly a "turned the corner" moment.

No, but it is a 'stay in the game' moment, kind of like the UPS 747-8F order.

Bald1983 wrote:

spacecookie wrote:

boom, the plane who all told is dead(me included) is more alive than ever.

Good news for the A-380 but 20 firm orders and 16 options is hardly a "turned the corner" moment.

It's enough to bridge the gap until a NEO. It's all Airbus and EK need for now.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Slug71 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Assuming $200M each real sale price ie., $100M for engines and $100M rest for 20x commitment.

It is a $2B frame commitment with TBD engine contract.

$20M buys a lot of PR.

HIGHLY doubt they are getting the them for less than half of list...

50% is standard. There were cases of 65%. 55% is doable for a slow-moving end-of-line product.

Airbus (or any business) won't sell for less than cost, and I doubt cost is that low.

flee wrote:

gokmengs wrote:

With top up orders from few airlines -which I’m expecting from AF, LH and Especially BA, I wonder if Airbus would commit to a NEO?

This order will enable Airbus to tick over until new engine technology is available. I think we should get an answer in about 3 to 5 years.

I think if Airbus continue to do so well with the A320neo and future A350 sales, and Airbus stand by their projections then I think we'll see one. EK won't order the plus, that's clear to see and new engine tech could be a key development...

Revelation wrote:

Bald1983 wrote:

spacecookie wrote:

boom, the plane who all told is dead(me included) is more alive than ever.

Good news for the A-380 but 20 firm orders and 16 options is hardly a "turned the corner" moment.

No, but it is a 'stay in the game' moment, kind of like the UPS 747-8F order.

It's a stay in the game until 2026 moment, that tides Airbus over quite nicely

Revelation wrote:

Bald1983 wrote:

spacecookie wrote:

boom, the plane who all told is dead(me included) is more alive than ever.

Good news for the A-380 but 20 firm orders and 16 options is hardly a "turned the corner" moment.

No, but it is a 'stay in the game' moment, kind of like the UPS 747-8F order.

Excellent analogy.

JamesCousins wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Bald1983 wrote:

Good news for the A-380 but 20 firm orders and 16 options is hardly a "turned the corner" moment.

No, but it is a 'stay in the game' moment, kind of like the UPS 747-8F order.

It's a stay in the game until 2026 moment, that tides Airbus over quite nicely

Indeed, and in that time we will see if the replacement market materializes and if there's a second hand market.
Myself I think the former is plausible: The latter not so much. Replacement orders (non-EK) should really be coming
sooner rather than later. And all that presumes no bumps in the road on the world stage.

Well, I guess that debunks this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382065

So what is the net/net? I image that X frames are retired ever X years....

Congradulations! This is a nice order to keep the line going.

Bricktop wrote:

JamesCousins wrote:

Revelation wrote:

No, but it is a 'stay in the game' moment, kind of like the UPS 747-8F order.

It's a stay in the game until 2026 moment, that tides Airbus over quite nicely

Indeed, and in that time we will see if the replacement market materializes and if there's a second hand market.
Myself I think the former is plausible: The latter not so much. Replacement orders (non-EK) should really be coming
sooner rather than later. And all that presumes no bumps in the road on the world stage.

I see a couple of airlines ordering top ups or replacements in the next few years, a BA top up seems inevitable IMO for some of the up-gauged 747 A/C. Many airlines 380s are still fairly new, BA's are 3.8 years avg, plus I think they're bought and not leased but I could be wrong

KarelXWB wrote:

vhtje wrote:

Are these additional aircraft or replacement aircraft for earlier-build birds?

Definitely replacement.

Who's going to buy EK's second hand frames when these last 36 orders will start delivering?...


Faro

This order also possibly suggests that any move to DWC is not imminent.If they are to keep their pax numbers up/growing at their present airport they 'have' to use this aircraft.Indeed will be interesting to watch the ratio of their present 3 class to 2 class change over time.

Sadly I don't suppose they will take the 'plus' variant- shame looks much nicer and is more economical ($70 a barrel these days).Also offers more interior space.But no hurry on that decision at the future production rate!

This was a necessary - not sufficient - condition for NEO. Production is secured at 6-12/year well into the 2020's. This sends a clear message to any airlines who may have been on the fence regarding a (top-up?) A380 order and had doubts about the long-term sustainment of the program, which are now removed. This order doesn't turn the tide for the A380, but it creates the necessary conditions for that turnaround to happen.

So Emirates would have extracted the maximum value from their position as sole prospective customer.

Good for them. Like when O'Leary raped Boeing back in the day. And, like then for Boeing, it is strategically more important for Airbus to keep the line open and running, even if you're not making any money out of it in the short term.

While limited to the trans-Pacific flights, this study shows the draw backs of the 747 and A380.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-17/q ... dy/9333616

I don't know how that study was made, but if QF were truly burning 64% more fuel than ANA, I would think they'd long be out of business?

SC430 wrote:

grbauc wrote:

Has a passenger Im glad.. A380 have made getting good J class seats possible. Has a Aviation fan im stoked, I love the variety and even though she's not the pretty thing the 747 is its nice to see lined up at LAX. Has a Boeing fan im glad because A healthy Airbus is better for the industry.

How does this make for a healthier Airbus. It just guaranteed continued production at a rate the loses money. Every A380 delivered is negative to profitability using cash that could be invested developing profitable models. If I were an Airbus stockholder, I would be angry. As a Boeing stockholder i'm happy Airbus is willing to throw money away just to get a 36 frame order on the books.

Sometimes a lifeline can turn into much more is my thinking.

Cue "Ode to Joy", the Whale jet has breached.

KarelXWB wrote:

JerseyFlyer wrote:

Given 41 (?) yet to be delivered from EK's firm order backlog. plus another 20 firm from this MoU, that's 61, which at 6 a year is 10 years' production from now. Throw in a few top up orders, and we will see A380 production to 2030 at least.

In addition to that, with the latest A380 on order being delivered in 2029, a lease period of 10-12 years and assuming the carrier doesn't go belly up, EK should operate the A380 until 2039-41.

If nothing else this is a testament to how ahead of it's time the A380 has been, in terms of fuel efficiency at high pax load factors, operating until 2040 at an airline which typically values the newest, most fuel efficient planes

r2rho wrote:

I don't know how that study was made, but if QF were truly burning 64% more fuel than ANA, I would think they'd long be out of business?

QF dispute the study, but maybe that is why they are not ordering any more A380's. If the A350 or the new 777x can handle the kangaroo route (or Sydney-LAX), they'll probably go with those frames as they are easier to fill.

bt

Saved the birds bacon.......for now.

airfrnt wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

It was and is a near thing. Airbus and its suppliers get and maintain production at their new minimum of 6 planes a year. EK gets a guarantee of ten years of production. Small question, might EK be pushing for at least one more PIP? And the most comfortable plane will be here for a good piece longer.

Ek bluffed, trying to get more out of Airbus, while airbus had all of the leverage. It’s game over here for EK and their additional asks.

Yea but unless we know the price tag, it will be hard to claim that victory in the manner you put it.

This is great news. The Broughton factory has had a great boost today.
I seem to remember saying a while back 'the orders will come', now let's see what BA do.

Regards
b

bikerthai wrote:

r2rho wrote:

I don't know how that study was made, but if QF were truly burning 64% more fuel than ANA, I would think they'd long be out of business?

QF dispute the study, but maybe that is why they are not ordering any more A380's. If the A350 or the new 777x can handle the kangaroo route (or Sydney-LAX), they'll probably go with those frames as they are easier to fill.

bt

I would think that particularly the kangaroo route is one of the best cases for VLA's. While smaller aircraft are easier to fill, that is only a concern where demand is the limiting factor. There are more than a dozen, maybe even two dozen options to go from Europe to Australia and the overall capacity far surpasses the handful of A380s Qantas uses there. Switching to a smaller, higher-CASM model would only reduce their market share and increase their costs but they wouldn't have a meaningful impact on the market to demand a premium. Neither is frequency an issue, due to the length of the trip. The only benefit of smaller ULH frames would be opening non-stop routes, which could then be sold at a premium. This is what PER-LHR is doing. As long as the A380 has better CASM than any widebody doing the flight non-stop, it should be the best choice. Once that changes, though...

Revelation wrote:

Since this tentative deal is a "kick the can down the road" kind of affair, maybe it is being pushed forward to give Leahy's successors a means to blame him for prolonging the agony if the often repeated prediction of the future strength of the VLA market never happens.

Time will tell.

There are about 30 non-stop flights a day between London and New-York. Impressive but not enough to warrant even one A380. Maybe that is a sign that the market tends to move towards fragmentation and frequency instead of consolidation. At the same time, the most popular model of the 777 is its largest member, the -300. Boeing chose to stretch it for the -9 upgrade. Clearly there is demand for large aircraft. Time will tell.

Awesome news and big congrats to Airbus I wish these were for the A380 Plus. The aero tweaks looked great. Any chance Airbus and EK worked that out as part of the deal?

parapente wrote:

This order also possibly suggests that any move to DWC is not imminent.If they are to keep their pax numbers up/growing at their present airport they 'have' to use this aircraft.Indeed will be interesting to watch the ratio of their present 3 class to 2 class change over time.

Sadly I don't suppose they will take the 'plus' variant- shame looks much nicer and is more economical ($70 a barrel these days).Also offers more interior space.But no hurry on that decision at the future production rate!

To quote STC he once stated "We've traded the company profitably above $100/barrel before, we've done it once and we will do it again". Perhaps to keep with commonality they haven't opted for the plus, this and the fact more than 36 frames would of been needed to launch the plus. So maybe not worth it for what they'd gain.

However it can't be that hard to certify the A380 for winglets as a simple add on?

On a side note to this, I read somewhere Emirates makes more money at higher oil price due to the higher premium demand stimulated. I'm also a big believer that the A380 has stimulated demand for air travel because of the lower fares offered. After all Emirates is a numbers run airline.

This is great news for Airbus, but also interesting for what it says about EK's expectations. It's a vote of confidence that Dubai will be able to keep DWC on track for an EK move within the next decade or so. It's a sign that EK thinks it will be able to continue significant growth and that it is comfortable with some level of risk. Tim Clark is bullish.

Will These be the current model or the proposed Plus?

rotating14 wrote:

gokmengs wrote:

With top up orders from few airlines -which I’m expecting from AF, LH and Especially BA, I wonder if Airbus would commit to a NEO?

Correction LH and AF are not in the market for more A380s. AF converted its backlog into A350-900s and and LH cancelled its last 3 it had. BA is in the market for more A380s but not new, so no, these airlines are not candidates for top up orders.

Willie Walsh has said that IAG is interested in leasing second-hand A380s for BA and possibly a couple for IB and even one for EI. I interpret his words as follows. "New A380s are ridiculously expensive, so we're happy to get some cheap, second-hand ones. But we'll buy new from Airbus is the price is dropped a lot, and right now Airbus has only one customer."

Arion640 wrote:

However it can't be that hard to certify the A380 for winglets as a simple add on?

Apparently the wing twist must be changed too, so it's not being offered as simple add on. Maybe we'll see more about it when the order is firmed.

rotating14 wrote:

gokmengs wrote:

With top up orders from few airlines -which I’m expecting from AF, LH and Especially BA, I wonder if Airbus would commit to a NEO?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Correction LH and AF are not in the market for more A380s. AF converted its backlog into A350-900s and and LH cancelled its last 3 it had. BA is in the market for more A380s but not new, so no, these airlines are not candidates for top up orders.

Well BA stated they want more.
And from the chatter I hear from LH colleagues I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see LH make a move this year regarding their A380 fleet. Which makes sense if they want to keep flying them from two hubs. Chinese markets would support it.
And then they're still the chinese airlines...

The A380 is certainly not bright. But it's alive and there is some hope to keep it alive until a NEO/stretch has a solid business case

I'll admit, I cursed out loud when I saw this today out of frustration that Boeing hasn't managed a similar coup in, what, a decade? I see this order as Boeing's loss, and I'm impressed that Airbus pulled it off but not at all surprised.

I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.

No 'plus' for these. I can see that when the time comes for NEO, the winglets and everything else that was being studied will be wrapped up in it, giving a potentially great fuel saving. Until then we will only see minor continuous improvement.

Regards
b

tigerotor77w wrote:

I'll admit, I cursed out loud when I saw this today out of frustration that Boeing hasn't managed a similar coup in, what, a decade? I see this order as Boeing's loss, and I'm impressed that Airbus pulled it off but not at all surprised.

I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.

I would argue that the launch orders for the 777x were an even bigger coup. 150 from EK alone...