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PVD757
Posts: 3098
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:30 am

I’d like to see the return of PVD-MSP but it seems DL is content with leaving PVD the way it is.
 
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SumChristianus
Topic Author
Posts: 390
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:19 am

cvgComair wrote:
I think we are going to see some adds at CVG this year. The CVG station manager tweeted out to "expect more great news from Delta in 2018" in regards to CVG. Also, a spokesperson for DL said, "The addition of Austin later in 2018 is the next evolution in our approach to serve the most popular destinations from CVG." It certainly sounds like DL has new routes and capacity increases coming for CVG this year...

They have already announced CVG-AUS, plus added frequency/capacity on CVG-ATL/DTW/RDU/STL/BWI/LAX/SEA/DEN. I think CVG-MSY/SAN/JAX could be very strong adds. Apparently, CVG and MEM are working with DL to bring back CVG-MEM: https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/new ... ntion.html.


So CVG has become strategic again,

I find it interesting how airlines manage connecting flows, ORD-MCO on DL can flow through DTW, CVG, ATL, or LGA; BWI-DEN through ATL, CVG, DTW, or MSP.
By growing in CVG they are "stealing"/redirecting some of their own passengers onto new connecting routes through CVG. Similiarly with RDU they are filling up regional jets into a ~80 daily flight operation at the expense of not moving them through ~900 daily flight ATL on MD88s/739s/A321s.
Do they see untapped connecting demand? Is ATL really full again and they need reliever hubs in CVG and RDU. I understand much of the buildup in CVG, RDU, BOS, etc., is for the local market, Delta's stratregic future in important buisness markets, and competitive reasons, but with local O&D passengers quite low on most routes compared to the amount of capacity offered on even CVG-DCA or RDU-BOS, RDU-PHL, etc., they have to change their own connecting flows and broad domestic market strategy to fill their capacity their.
If DL can maintain or grow its capacity in CVG against the ULCC onslaught, I think its a good sign that America will not go the way of Europe where ULCC's become the norm, and "full service" carriers, to "compete" drop most amenites and "premium services", losing much of their O&D short-haul traffic. That has forced many European "FSCs" to focus on long-haul traffic as EasyJet, Ryanair, Wizz Air, etc. continue to gain share.
Given that that has happened in Europe, I worry somewhat for that trend to happen in America (not that I don't like low-fares), but I hope that true full-service carriers can survive in America to give customers a full range of options.
CVG for DL as a primarily short-haul, point-to-point operation is a good test of the durability of U.S. carriers relative to their European counterparts.

I expect AUS to grow for DL, with IND, MCO, AMS, and a few other routes added over the next few years. AUS is more isolated than RDU or BOS geographically, and more competitive with a large WN operation, but DL seems in strategy over the past eight years or so, to have moved from a focus on its legacy core hub of ATL, to growing NYC, then on to LAX, then SEA, with RDU and various point to point routes sprinkled amidst them. Now the focus seems to be BOS, RDU, a few upgauges in DTW, and in a small way CVG/IND. I'd expect AUS to be next as DL grows in strategic buisness and technology markets, while SJC and BNA may be future focuses of attention.
In the long term (2025-2030) I see daily departures by key airport as settling around the following. They're just guesses, I really have no idea, but DL on one hand has a consolidated network with the huge ATL focus and also a diversified network with all its point-to-point routes and focus cities.
ATL: 950
DTW: 480
MSP: 400
LGA: 270
SLC: 270
LAX: 220
SEA: 220
JFK: 180 (not sure of current numbers)
BOS: 140
RDU: 90
CVG: 80
MCO: 50
AUS: 40
IND: 40
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA (coming soon)
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4406
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:35 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
afcjets wrote:
FSDan wrote:

ATL-OGG: not out of the question, but I'd expect a year-round daily SLC-OGG first.


The longest runway at OGG is only 6995 feet, is that long enough? There are plans to lengthen it to 8500 in the future though.


DL flew ATL-OGG in the past with a 767-300.

There are several other routes mentioned in this thread that DL has done on the past.

ATL-BOI (not just summer)
SEA-KIX (NW did it, then DL tried it)
SLC-CLE (with an MD-90)


SLC-CMH was run for 2-3 years with E170s (I think that might have been the first DCI E170 route), MD-90s, and CRJ-900s before it was dropped.

Speaking of, how about CMH-SLC/SEA/CDG or AMS, Delta?
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
winginit
Posts: 1335
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:39 pm

dmorbust wrote:
winginit wrote:
dmorbust wrote:
Ever since DL nixed JFK-NRT, I am really surprised they don't have a single NYC to Asia flight. I would hope that when the JV gets approved, DL takes over one of KE's JFK-ICN flights so there is a direct Delta option. Relying solely on China Eastern and Korean Air without operating its own metal to Asia does not cut it if one's strategy is to win NYC.


In what ways has Delta not already won NYC? Also, 'does not cut it' according to who? Certainly not shareholders. Those New York to Asia nonstops are bloodbaths for profitability, so it seems to me that it would actually be prudent to continue having JV metal fly those versus DL metal that can be better deployed elsewhere.


Delta has not already won NYC according to revenue premiums vs competitors. I believe both Jetblue and United command a premium over Delta in the NYC market according to the data.


Source? Let's have a look at that data please, because I don't recall that being the case for United. I think it's fair to put JetBlue to the side on that one since the context of the comparison was long-haul international.
 
Capn
Posts: 188
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:34 pm

Capn wrote:
I really think DL. will enter into any market that is needed to support a hub or focus city if business travel warrants it. This is not a slam on any of its competitors, but it is really running a great operation and the other airlines have yet to catch up. That is how they earn a 117 % premium in fares charged.
The only thing holding them back is the real lack of gates at most of the cities mentioned in above threads e.g. AUS BOS ORD LAX RDU SEA SLC DAL DFW.
The fact that they manage to add a few new flts. at a time without junking there ops at these cities is really a tribute to Network Planning.
Unfortunately its going to take awhile.


I just realized that I left off a couple of key cities.
I would also list CLT LAS and SJC.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
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flymco753
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:44 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
MCO: 50
I'd really like to see that number more around 75 or 80 daily, there's a lot of unused potential in MCO especially with the ability to relieve ATL and connect passengers on partners like AM, VS, and WS, while utilizing a codeshare on GOL, it's a good opportunity.
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

*Future Route Network Planner*
 
BlatantEcho
Posts: 1943
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:56 pm

I’m really interested to see what happens when the Korean JV is approved.

I assume the remaining NRT flights will go away and move to ICN.

PDX is desperate for a n/s Asia flight with real connections deeper into Asia. PDX-ICN with all the connections available would be a big improvement.

I’d also like to see PDX-CDG to help get to Africa easier. And pdx-Lhr to go daily in summer, and maybe 3-4x weekly year round.

Those are my hopes for the next 12-18 months with Delta.
 
afcjets
Posts: 1995
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:59 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
I expect AUS to grow for DL, with IND, MCO, AMS, and a few other routes added over the next few years.


I would expect CDG before AMS. I actually assumed they already flew AUS-CDG, especially since they are launching IND-CDG this summer with a 763 year round.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:01 pm

BlatantEcho wrote:
I’m really interested to see what happens when the Korean JV is approved.

I assume the remaining NRT flights will go away and move to ICN.

PDX is desperate for a n/s Asia flight with real connections deeper into Asia. PDX-ICN with all the connections available would be a big improvement.

I’d also like to see PDX-CDG to help get to Africa easier. And pdx-Lhr to go daily in summer, and maybe 3-4x weekly year round.

Those are my hopes for the next 12-18 months with Delta.


That's been the speculation all along. However, it's been rumored for years now that DL will discontinue PDX-NRT. Hasn't happened yet.

If DL does move that to PDX-ICN, I would not at all be surprised to see NH or JL add PDX-NRT. I suspect someone will be flying it long-term.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:02 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
ATL: 950
DTW: 480
MSP: 400
LGA: 270
SLC: 270
LAX: 220
SEA: 220
JFK: 180 (not sure of current numbers)
BOS: 140
RDU: 90
CVG: 80
MCO: 50
AUS: 40
IND: 40


ATL in the summer is closer to 1000 departures today.

I'm not sure I see LAX getting quite as high as 220, given the gate constraints. As I understand it, part of Delta's reason for moving to a facility with more gates was to better handle the existing operation (which had lots of gating delays in T5). Growing departures to 220 would probably put them right back where they started. That said, I do think they'll grow some more once the renovations are complete, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go north of 200 departures.

JFK is already over 200 departures in the summer. If they ever decide to build out T4-A completely maybe they'll have some room to increase slightly further.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:14 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
In the long term (2025-2030) I see daily departures by key airport as settling around the following. They're just guesses, I really have no idea, but DL on one hand has a consolidated network with the huge ATL focus and also a diversified network with all its point-to-point routes and focus cities.
ATL: 950
DTW: 480
MSP: 400
LGA: 270
SLC: 270
LAX: 220
SEA: 220
JFK: 180 (not sure of current numbers)
BOS: 140
RDU: 90
CVG: 80
MCO: 50
AUS: 40
IND: 40


IND is already at 40 departures, I was told by someone at DL to expect at least 20 more non-stops per day out of IND over the next couple years (most of which being p2p). Supposedly, although p2p expansion network wide is delayed because of the Cseries.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 106
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:14 pm

BlatantEcho wrote:
I’d also like to see PDX-CDG to help get to Africa easier. And pdx-Lhr to go daily in summer, and maybe 3-4x weekly year round


If anything, it wouldn’t be illogical to replace PDX-AMS with PDX/CDG, though I know the former route has a lot of pre-merger history behind it.
 
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SumChristianus
Topic Author
Posts: 390
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:17 pm

FSDan wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
ATL: 950
DTW: 480
MSP: 400
LGA: 270
SLC: 270
LAX: 220
SEA: 220
JFK: 180 (not sure of current numbers)
BOS: 140
RDU: 90
CVG: 80
MCO: 50
AUS: 40
IND: 40


ATL in the summer is closer to 1000 departures today.

I'm not sure I see LAX getting quite as high as 220, given the gate constraints. As I understand it, part of Delta's reason for moving to a facility with more gates was to better handle the existing operation (which had lots of gating delays in T5). Growing departures to 220 would probably put them right back where they started. That said, I do think they'll grow some more once the renovations are complete, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go north of 200 departures.

JFK is already over 200 departures in the summer. If they ever decide to build out T4-A completely maybe they'll have some room to increase slightly further.


DTW-JFK, JFK-IND, etc., have seen some increases for the Summer, which is surprising considering that LGA is supposedly the preferred airport with JFK for domestic to international connections.
I took the LAX guess from the Airways News, "Battle for Los Angeles" article; it was sometime in 2016, I think, and I don't think he considered gate constraints that much.
Perhaps the midfield concourse development would open up more gates at LAX, but AA and DL seem to have slowed their rapid LAX expansion. ORD, IAH, MKE, PHL, RNO, and ICN seem like future possibilities for DL.
How many more flights can they fit through ATL? 1200? Weren't they close to that at one time? I somehow doubt there is enough connecting demand to fill up that many flights. I'd expect more upgauging there, but unless they build a new terminal, and there is a big increase in demand to Florida/the Southeast, it seems that frequencies would have to stay pretty stagnant.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA (coming soon)
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:24 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
In the long term (2025-2030) I see daily departures by key airport as settling around the following. They're just guesses, I really have no idea, but DL on one hand has a consolidated network with the huge ATL focus and also a diversified network with all its point-to-point routes and focus cities.
ATL: 950
DTW: 480
MSP: 400
LGA: 270
SLC: 270
LAX: 220
SEA: 220
JFK: 180 (not sure of current numbers)
BOS: 140
RDU: 90
CVG: 80
MCO: 50
AUS: 40
IND: 40


IND is already at 40 departures, I was told by someone at DL to expect at least 20 more non-stops per day out of IND over the next couple years (most of which being p2p). Supposedly, although p2p expansion network wide is delayed because of the C-Series.


20 more flights? Wow! Some combination of AUS, TPA, BNA, MSY, DCA, and additional frequencies to hubs?
ATL would probably max out at 11 daily flights, DTW at 7, MSP at 5, and LGA at 5; to reach 60, then they have to be planning a lot of new routes.
They'd never consider CVG again with some of their recent growth there would they? It seems almost as illogical as 6x daily JFK-PHL on AA E140s, but they somehow thought IND-STL would work (NW at the time?) a few years ago. The amount of seats in many IND markets compared to both local (and recorded connecting) demand, never ceases to amaze me!
The C-Series would have replaced regional operations, I would guess, and with the delay of its arrival, the regional jets that would have been freed up by the C-Series, have to continue on the current network.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA (coming soon)
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:24 pm

afcjets wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
I expect AUS to grow for DL, with IND, MCO, AMS, and a few other routes added over the next few years.


I would expect CDG before AMS. I actually assumed they already flew AUS-CDG, especially since they are launching IND-CDG this summer with a 763 year round.


Only reason for CDG-IND was cargo, the planned int'l expansion is supposed to go through AMS.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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cvgComair
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:26 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
I think we are going to see some adds at CVG this year. The CVG station manager tweeted out to "expect more great news from Delta in 2018" in regards to CVG. Also, a spokesperson for DL said, "The addition of Austin later in 2018 is the next evolution in our approach to serve the most popular destinations from CVG." It certainly sounds like DL has new routes and capacity increases coming for CVG this year...

They have already announced CVG-AUS, plus added frequency/capacity on CVG-ATL/DTW/RDU/STL/BWI/LAX/SEA/DEN. I think CVG-MSY/SAN/JAX could be very strong adds. Apparently, CVG and MEM are working with DL to bring back CVG-MEM: https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/new ... ntion.html.


So CVG has become strategic again,

I find it interesting how airlines manage connecting flows, ORD-MCO on DL can flow through DTW, CVG, ATL, or LGA; BWI-DEN through ATL, CVG, DTW, or MSP.
By growing in CVG they are "stealing"/redirecting some of their own passengers onto new connecting routes through CVG. Similiarly with RDU they are filling up regional jets into a ~80 daily flight operation at the expense of not moving them through ~900 daily flight ATL on MD88s/739s/A321s.
Do they see untapped connecting demand? Is ATL really full again and they need reliever hubs in CVG and RDU. I understand much of the buildup in CVG, RDU, BOS, etc., is for the local market, Delta's stratregic future in important buisness markets, and competitive reasons, but with local O&D passengers quite low on most routes compared to the amount of capacity offered on even CVG-DCA or RDU-BOS, RDU-PHL, etc., they have to change their own connecting flows and broad domestic market strategy to fill their capacity their.
If DL can maintain or grow its capacity in CVG against the ULCC onslaught, I think its a good sign that America will not go the way of Europe where ULCC's become the norm, and "full service" carriers, to "compete" drop most amenites and "premium services", losing much of their O&D short-haul traffic. That has forced many European "FSCs" to focus on long-haul traffic as EasyJet, Ryanair, Wizz Air, etc. continue to gain share.
Given that that has happened in Europe, I worry somewhat for that trend to happen in America (not that I don't like low-fares), but I hope that true full-service carriers can survive in America to give customers a full range of options.
CVG for DL as a primarily short-haul, point-to-point operation is a good test of the durability of U.S. carriers relative to their European counterparts.
CVG: 80

I am hoping to see CVG at 90-100 flights again, but it depends on how much frequency reduction for larger aircraft we see. Currently summer 2018 is scheduled for 82 peak daily departures. I think we will have a much better image of CVG's future after these teased adds are made.
Next: CVG-BOS (Delta Air Lines MD90), BOS-AMS (Delta Air Lines A333), AMS-CPH (KLM B738)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
Capn
Posts: 188
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:49 pm

My thoughts ( for what they are worth )
FROM- TO

AUS- LAS SJC MCI BNA IND ORD CMH IAD MCO DFW

BNA- AUS LAS MCI BDL MSY MCO

BOS- ROC CLE STL LAS SJC SAN ORD DFW MSY CLT PHL DCA SDF ICN FRA

ORD- AUS LAX BOS RDU

LAX- ANC STL ORD PIT CLE YYZ PHL IAD CLT IAH FAT SAF

RDU- SJC SAN SAT DEN ORD DFW MCI YYZ YUL JAX

SEA- OAK LGB BUR STL OMA DFW CMH MSY PIT PHL CLT FAT SBA

SLC- ANC SBA SLO MRY MEM PIT CMH. CLE RIC SDF BDL ELP SAF BHM

DFW- AUS BOS SEA RDU

SJC- DTW BOS AUS RDU CVG IND

LAS- AUS BNA RDU BOS

CLT- LAX BOS SEA

This is certainly my wish list for the future and this would take time, however I think alot of these will eventually come on line.
Fingers crossed...
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
FSDan
Posts: 1695
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:34 pm

cvgComair wrote:
I am hoping to see CVG at 90-100 flights again, but it depends on how much frequency reduction for larger aircraft we see. Currently summer 2018 is scheduled for 82 peak daily departures. I think we will have a much better image of CVG's future after these teased adds are made.


If an announcement is coming, I'd expect it to happen in the next few weeks (if it's going to be for summer 2018 flying, anyway).
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Buffalomatt1027
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:59 pm

afcjets wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Delta should expand in Buffalo at BNIA. Jetblue, southwest, Frontier all have taken the leap of faith with Canadians / current local market and its been working out great! MANY airline people didnt think that BUF - LA would succeed as a non hub route and it has produced above and beyond expectations!


Didn't AA fly DC10s BUF-LAX nonstop in the 1970s?


I am not sure if they did .... i am not old enough to know for sure. BNIA / Buffalo has gone from an airport from about 5.5 million dropped down to 4.6 million passengers per year due to carriers buying each other and consolidation.


But finally some hope for BNIA with Jetblue to LA, Frontier to Miami, Denver, and couple other destinations, and Express something to Cancun and punta cana, and so on. So Buffalo is slowly making its way back up. Legacy carriers like Delta, United, AA need to expand their routes and learn that there is money to be made and passengers that will fly out.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5130
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:14 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Delta should expand in Buffalo at BNIA. Jetblue, southwest, Frontier all have taken the leap of faith with Canadians / current local market and its been working out great! MANY airline people didnt think that BUF - LA would succeed as a non hub route and it has produced above and beyond expectations!


Didn't AA fly DC10s BUF-LAX nonstop in the 1970s?


I am not sure if they did .... i am not old enough to know for sure. BNIA / Buffalo has gone from an airport from about 5.5 million dropped down to 4.6 million passengers per year due to carriers buying each other and consolidation.


But finally some hope for BNIA with Jetblue to LA, Frontier to Miami, Denver, and couple other destinations, and Express something to Cancun and punta cana, and so on. So Buffalo is slowly making its way back up. Legacy carriers like Delta, United, AA need to expand their routes and learn that there is money to be made and passengers that will fly out.

It is highly questionable how true this is.

Other than larger airplanes maybe a few extra frequency here or there, the only possible route that somewhat makes sense would be a CS flight on SLC-BUF.

SEA/LAX-BUF are long, very thin routes that really offers Delta very little. IMHO B6 wouldn't have even entertained the idea of LAX-BUF if they weren't trying to kiss Chuck Schumer's butt.

IMO the only new upstate NY routes we see are BOS-SYR/ROC.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 1598
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:19 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
afcjets wrote:

Didn't AA fly DC10s BUF-LAX nonstop in the 1970s?


I am not sure if they did .... i am not old enough to know for sure. BNIA / Buffalo has gone from an airport from about 5.5 million dropped down to 4.6 million passengers per year due to carriers buying each other and consolidation.


But finally some hope for BNIA with Jetblue to LA, Frontier to Miami, Denver, and couple other destinations, and Express something to Cancun and punta cana, and so on. So Buffalo is slowly making its way back up. Legacy carriers like Delta, United, AA need to expand their routes and learn that there is money to be made and passengers that will fly out.

It is highly questionable how true this is.

Other than larger airplanes maybe a few extra frequency here or there, the only possible route that somewhat makes sense would be a CS flight on SLC-BUF.

SEA/LAX-BUF are long, very thin routes that really offers Delta very little. IMHO B6 wouldn't have even entertained the idea of LAX-BUF if they weren't trying to kiss Chuck Schumer's butt.

IMO the only new upstate NY routes we see are BOS-SYR/ROC.


People from every city say "there is money to be made!" "it will be profitable!" yet have no data to back it up (none exists, really). Airlines aren't going to just throw capacity at markets and make money, that's how they all went into bankruptcy.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 2917
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:27 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
MANY airline people didnt think that BUF - LA would succeed as a non hub route and it has produced above and beyond expectations!


Says Who?

All the intel I have points to BUF-LAX being one of B6's worst performing routes. It already been cut to 4x weekly and is still almost always one of B6's cyber specials. I expect it to be dropped completely once the incentives end this fall...
 
NateGreat
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:58 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Similar to the United Airlines Network Thread I think it would be good to have one about DL.
Between SEA, BOS, future high level capacity allocation among hubs, fleet deployment present and future, DL's upgauging strategy, and its international alliances, there is PLENTY to discuss.

To start out:
What do you think about ATL-SYD, ATL-BOI, DTW-HKG, MSP-COS, LAX-ORD, LAX-IAH, and SEA-KIX as future possibilities?
How will DL's CRJ200s be allocated amongst hubs as the fleet continues to draw down? Which cities will lose service or see major changes from their reduction?
What is DL doing at CVG, splitting connecting flows with DTW, BOS, spitting with NYC, and RDU, splitting with ATL?
What are Delta's plans at AUS? A focus city, or simply connecting the dots from other growing focus city operations?
Is DL winning the War for Seattle?

Bring it on...

ATL-SYD isn't happening. Nothing has the range.
ATL-BOI would have to be a CS route

I believe DTW-HKG is going to come back. I'm fairly sure it will be the next HKG route Delta adds. LAX also makes sense.

MSP-COS is a big missing piece for the MSP hub, IMO.

LAX-IAH/ORD as well as LAX-RNO/OKC/PHL/ELP would all be very logical adds.

SEA-KIX/NGO/TPE all make some level of sense. The issue here is the lack of appropriate aircraft. The lack of 787 is hurting. Even SEA-SYD with a 787 makes sense in the DL/VA JV.

Is there ANY chance of Delta placing even a small order of 787s somewhere down the road, even if that somewhere isn’t until somewhere between the mid-2020s and 2030s? I mean, if the price is right and the 767s are almost if not entirely gone from Delta’s fleet, and the older 777s are getting ready to be retired (when it’s time), why not?
 
NateGreat
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:06 pm

winginit wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
Internationally I don't see a ton of non-safe growth from Delta. Till they get 787s they don't really have the right plane to try a lot of routes that are longer distances.


I don't disagree with your point about what I assume is higher risk growth (not sure if non-safe is the right word) in the form of brand new spokes, etc., but it won't be on account of aircraft range given the 25 A350s that are coming in between now and 2022.

I do think we'll see at least one if not two additional nonstops between the US and ICN assuming the JV is approved exit-Asia. LAX is an obvious candidate and SEA not unreasonable.

Are they planning on cutting the order of 25 back to 15?
 
maximairways
Posts: 73
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:05 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:08 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
MANY airline people didnt think that BUF - LA would succeed as a non hub route and it has produced above and beyond expectations!


Says Who?

All the intel I have points to BUF-LAX being one of B6's worst performing routes. It already been cut to 4x weekly and is still almost always one of B6's cyber specials. I expect it to be dropped completely once the incentives end this fall...


There are no incentives, NY doesn't offer incentives. Also, its 5x weekly through April before returning to daily in June.

The airport director noted in the past that bookings are inline with expectations.
 
NateGreat
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:15 pm

DDR wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
FSDan wrote:


This anet wet dream of converting Delta to all Airbus just simply isn't going to happen.


Agreed. DL is simply too large to rely on one aircraft manufacturer. And before anyone brings up WN and how they only fly Boeing aircraft, DL has a much more different route structure. Hell, even the big European airlines fly both Boeing and Airbus.

Agreed x2. Does WN fly to London? Does WN fly to Tokyo? Does WN fly to Rio? NO to all three of those questions. Obviously DL has a much different route structure than WN. As of right now, DL has no plans for any 787s. But in the next 10, maybe 15, or even 20 years, DL could very potentially place an order for some 787s to cover a handful of TATL, TPAC, or Deep South routes.
 
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TransWorldOne
Posts: 199
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:27 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
I’d also like to see PDX-CDG to help get to Africa easier. And pdx-Lhr to go daily in summer, and maybe 3-4x weekly year round


If anything, it wouldn’t be illogical to replace PDX-AMS with PDX/CDG, though I know the former route has a lot of pre-merger history behind it.


Don't forget, Nike's world headquarters is in the Portland area and their European headquarters is located in Amsterdam. The front cabin on this flight is usually filled with Nike execs.
 
tphuang
Posts: 1218
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:28 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
MANY airline people didnt think that BUF - LA would succeed as a non hub route and it has produced above and beyond expectations!


Says Who?

All the intel I have points to BUF-LAX being one of B6's worst performing routes. It already been cut to 4x weekly and is still almost always one of B6's cyber specials. I expect it to be dropped completely once the incentives end this fall...


Yep that one is definitely one of the worst performing routes for b6.

Only mco lax is worse. Without the incentives, no reason to fly it.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5130
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:50 pm

NateGreat wrote:
winginit wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
Internationally I don't see a ton of non-safe growth from Delta. Till they get 787s they don't really have the right plane to try a lot of routes that are longer distances.


I don't disagree with your point about what I assume is higher risk growth (not sure if non-safe is the right word) in the form of brand new spokes, etc., but it won't be on account of aircraft range given the 25 A350s that are coming in between now and 2022.

I do think we'll see at least one if not two additional nonstops between the US and ICN assuming the JV is approved exit-Asia. LAX is an obvious candidate and SEA not unreasonable.

Are they planning on cutting the order of 25 back to 15?

right now no. The extended the delivery of the last 10 out to 2021-2023

It is rumored they may be canceled but I personally think Delta takes them. 15 airplanes is a pretty small fleet, IMO.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 2917
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:55 pm

maximairways wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
MANY airline people didnt think that BUF - LA would succeed as a non hub route and it has produced above and beyond expectations!


Says Who?

All the intel I have points to BUF-LAX being one of B6's worst performing routes. It already been cut to 4x weekly and is still almost always one of B6's cyber specials. I expect it to be dropped completely once the incentives end this fall...


There are no incentives, NY doesn't offer incentives. Also, its 5x weekly through April before returning to daily in June.

The airport director noted in the past that bookings are inline with expectations.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 2917
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:57 pm

maximairways wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
MANY airline people didnt think that BUF - LA would succeed as a non hub route and it has produced above and beyond expectations!


Says Who?

All the intel I have points to BUF-LAX being one of B6's worst performing routes. It already been cut to 4x weekly and is still almost always one of B6's cyber specials. I expect it to be dropped completely once the incentives end this fall...


There are no incentives, NY doesn't offer incentives. Also, its 5x weekly through April before returning to daily in June.

The airport director noted in the past that bookings are inline with expectations.

Not quite sure why you think there are no incentives. The NFTA has very competitive incentives packages for carriers launching targeted new routes from BUF
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 106
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:18 pm

TransWorldOne wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
I’d also like to see PDX-CDG to help get to Africa easier. And pdx-Lhr to go daily in summer, and maybe 3-4x weekly year round


If anything, it wouldn’t be illogical to replace PDX-AMS with PDX/CDG, though I know the former route has a lot of pre-merger history behind it.


Don't forget, Nike's world headquarters is in the Portland area and their European headquarters is located in Amsterdam. The front cabin on this flight is usually filled with Nike execs.


Good point and thanks for bringing it up. I hadn’t considered that.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 163
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:53 am

usflyer msp wrote:
maximairways wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

Says Who?

All the intel I have points to BUF-LAX being one of B6's worst performing routes. It already been cut to 4x weekly and is still almost always one of B6's cyber specials. I expect it to be dropped completely once the incentives end this fall...


There are no incentives, NY doesn't offer incentives. Also, its 5x weekly through April before returning to daily in June.

The airport director noted in the past that bookings are inline with expectations.

Not quite sure why you think there are no incentives. The NFTA has very competitive incentives packages for carriers launching targeted new routes from BUF


They do have incentives for BNIA .... i saw the list and how much money. But it was few years old. If i find the website or list, ill post the link.

As for the Jetblue LA - BUF route - Yes, I read or heard in the Buffalo News that bookings were in line with expectations. No issues at all.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3796
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:39 am

SLC growth is impressive on O&D, trends look for that to continue.

Delta is at a pretty interesting phase at SLC until I bet 2021. Don't look for much interesting stuff for a while. They really have to focus on O&D and those necessary western connections more with airport limitations, but after the construction I think they will really try some interesting stuff.

It is great to see CVG resources be used again!
 
JDawgboy512
Posts: 46
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:41 am

Word is the Austin Chamber of Commerce will have a big Delta announcement on Feb 6th. Very curious to know what that is.
 
n7371f
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Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:06 am

Delta SkyClub with outdoor deck.

Wouldn't put it beneath an international flight to AMS or CDG to coincide with the new International arrivals concourse.

JDawgboy512 wrote:
Word is the Austin Chamber of Commerce will have a big Delta announcement on Feb 6th. Very curious to know what that is.
 
JDawgboy512
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:39 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:24 am

Unlikely they will have an announcement about the skyclub which is already known about and advertised.

As far as AMS we shall see if it has anything to do with extending the short stint during SXSW.
 
Varsity1
Posts: 1421
Joined: Mon May 02, 2016 4:55 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:35 am

Word on the street is delta will start directly capacity dumping on the transatlantic LCC routes. Blood in the water at Norwegian.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
jubguy3
Posts: 495
Joined: Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:18 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:12 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
SLC growth is impressive on O&D, trends look for that to continue.

Delta is at a pretty interesting phase at SLC until I bet 2021. Don't look for much interesting stuff for a while. They really have to focus on O&D and those necessary western connections more with airport limitations, but after the construction I think they will really try some interesting stuff.

It is great to see CVG resources be used again!


Delta's commitment to the TRP and the lease extensions, and their willingness to take on debt for the SLCDA makes me think that they have serious plans for SLC. If they do end up getting the north gate 15- extension, that has to mean a capacity of what, 30-40m per year? I could see them creating an ATL #2 (obviously not on the same scale, but larger than it is now) with the ability to expand rapidly and inexpensively and SLC's amazingly low landing fees. DL has something UA and AA don't in the mountain west, a fortress hub, and I think they are ready to utilize it to it's fullest. They already make a surprisingly good margin off of SLC and our rapid O/D growth and middle class wealth-saturated economy and isolation is helping too (SLC is a primate airport with no competitors for hundreds of miles, and it's one of the richest metros with a high level of income equality which is perfect for growing a FF base). The true limiting factor has been the facilities and soon that will no longer impede Delta here.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 2304
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:57 am

SumChristianus wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
IND is already at 40 departures, I was told by someone at DL to expect at least 20 more non-stops per day out of IND over the next couple years (most of which being p2p). Supposedly, although p2p expansion network wide is delayed because of the C-Series.


20 more flights? Wow! Some combination of AUS, TPA, BNA, MSY, DCA, and additional frequencies to hubs?
ATL would probably max out at 11 daily flights, DTW at 7, MSP at 5, and LGA at 5; to reach 60, then they have to be planning a lot of new routes.
They'd never consider CVG again with some of their recent growth there would they? It seems almost as illogical as 6x daily JFK-PHL on AA E140s, but they somehow thought IND-STL would work (NW at the time?) a few years ago. The amount of seats in many IND markets compared to both local (and recorded connecting) demand, never ceases to amaze me!
The C-Series would have replaced regional operations, I would guess, and with the delay of its arrival, the regional jets that would have been freed up by the C-Series, have to continue on the current network.


Totally agree with the part bolded

DL on DCA-IND would be difficult, competing with lots of frequencies from AA. it was run by DL in the past.... Plus, where would they get slots for DCA-IND

With the 40 IND has now, and the 20 new flights being proposed a typical day could look something like this:
ATL: 11, DTW:8, LGA:6, MSP:6, BOS:4, JFK:3, LAX:2, RDU:2, SLC:2, MCO:2, AUS:1, SAT:1, BDL:1, LAS:1, FLL:1, MSY:1, TPA:1, MEX:1, RSW:1, SEA:1, CDG:1, MIA:1 maybe maybe if DL cuts CVG-BNA it could move to IND when/if DL builds up the connections
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 3440
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:07 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Word on the street is delta will start directly capacity dumping on the transatlantic LCC routes. Blood in the water at Norwegian.


From where is Delta's capacity to dump coming?
 
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TransWorldOne
Posts: 199
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:37 pm

JDawgboy512 wrote:
Word is the Austin Chamber of Commerce will have a big Delta announcement on Feb 6th. Very curious to know what that is.


I'm very much looking forward to this announcement. I don't want to get my hopes up but rumor has it that AUS will become Delta's newest focus city. DL staff in AUS seem convinced of it. It seems unusual to me that DL would open a SkyClub with a skydeck at a regular outstation. The only other clubs with a skydeck are at ATL and JFK, both large DL hubs.
 
727LOVER
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:44 pm

Just from a personal view.....why so stingy on SRQ-DTW? I mean...1 year round and double daily in winter...is that too much to ask?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
afcjets
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:46 pm

TransWorldOne wrote:
JDawgboy512 wrote:
Word is the Austin Chamber of Commerce will have a big Delta announcement on Feb 6th. Very curious to know what that is.


I'm very much looking forward to this announcement. I don't want to get my hopes up but rumor has it that AUS will become Delta's newest focus city. DL staff in AUS seem convinced of it. It seems unusual to me that DL would open a SkyClub with a skydeck at a regular outstation. The only other clubs with a skydeck are at ATL and JFK, both large DL hubs.


Maybe they have plans to make AUS a hub.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4406
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:49 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Word on the street is delta will start directly capacity dumping on the transatlantic LCC routes. Blood in the water at Norwegian.


From where is Delta's capacity to dump coming?


This is what I'm fascinated and befuddled with. Last year, there was a supposedly informed rumor of six cities in the running for new DL focus cities to include P2P flying and a TATL flight, especially if the airport in question was willing to pony up money. One of the conditions was no existing TATL or TPAC service, which isn't the case at AUS, but apparently they're one of them.

That rumor is apparently still valid with 4-5 more candidates in the running, but now there's also talk (from the same source on APC as well) of taking on the ULCCs head to head in some markets, which clashes with the original rumor.

How are they going to do it?
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
bkflyguy
Posts: 170
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:25 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:52 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Word on the street is delta will start directly capacity dumping on the transatlantic LCC routes. Blood in the water at Norwegian.


From where is Delta's capacity to dump coming?


From de-hubbing DTW, obviously.
 
afcjets
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:54 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
Last year, there was a supposedly informed rumor of six cities in the running for new DL focus cities to include P2P flying and a TATL flight, especially if the airport in question was willing to pony up money. One of the conditions was no existing TATL or TPAC service, which isn't the case at AUS, but apparently they're one of them.

That rumor is apparently still valid with 4-5 more candidates in the running, but now there's also talk (from the same source on APC as well) of taking on the ULCCs head to head in some markets, which clashes with the original rumor.

How are they going to do it?


Flying the MD88s for 40 years instead of retiring them, just like the DC9 ;)
 
Capn
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:35 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
FSDan wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
ATL: 950
DTW: 480
MSP: 400
LGA: 270
SLC: 270
LAX: 220
SEA: 220
JFK: 180 (not sure of current numbers)
BOS: 140
RDU: 90
CVG: 80
MCO: 50
AUS: 40
IND: 40


ATL in the summer is closer to 1000 departures today.

I'm not sure I see LAX getting quite as high as 220, given the gate constraints. As I understand it, part of Delta's reason for moving to a facility with more gates was to better handle the existing operation (which had lots of gating delays in T5). Growing departures to 220 would probably put them right back where they started. That said, I do think they'll grow some more once the renovations are complete, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go north of 200 departures.

JFK is already over 200 departures in the summer. If they ever decide to build out T4-A completely maybe they'll have some room to increase slightly further.


"DTW-JFK, JFK-IND, etc., have seen some increases for the Summer, which is surprising considering that LGA is supposedly the preferred airport with JFK for domestic to international connections."
I took the LAX guess from the Airways News, "Battle for Los Angeles" article; it was sometime in 2016, I think, and I don't think he considered gate constraints that much.
Perhaps the midfield concourse development would open up more gates at LAX, but AA and DL seem to have slowed their rapid LAX expansion. ORD, IAH, MKE, PHL, RNO, and ICN seem like future possibilities for DL.
How many more flights can they fit through ATL? 1200? Weren't they close to that at one time? I somehow doubt there is enough connecting demand to fill up that many flights. I'd expect more upgauging there, but unless they build a new terminal, and there is a big increase in demand to Florida/the Southeast, it seems that frequencies would have to stay pretty stagnant.


Actually, if you look at DL.s JFK schedule it pretty much mirrors the one at LGA for domestic ops. I believe it is more than just a feeder for international flying, although that is its primary mission.
It has mostly 3 flts. a day, as opposed to LGAs 5 or 6,
to most of the primary business markets in the U.S.
They have built it up gradually and have made a nice little hub for Long Island residents, and those who prefer JFK.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 2304
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:46 pm

JDawgboy512 wrote:
Word is the Austin Chamber of Commerce will have a big Delta announcement on Feb 6th. Very curious to know what that is.


Hmmm interesting....the director of IND said the the city and the airport had a major announcement coming in the next few weeks, he refused to say anything else about it but it isn't FedEx related...

With everything that has been said up to now, it seems like announcements coming from the cities of AUS and IND, close to the same time is likely not a coincidence....
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
Varsity1
Posts: 1421
Joined: Mon May 02, 2016 4:55 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:10 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Word on the street is delta will start directly capacity dumping on the transatlantic LCC routes. Blood in the water at Norwegian.


From where is Delta's capacity to dump coming?


This is what I'm fascinated and befuddled with. Last year, there was a supposedly informed rumor of six cities in the running for new DL focus cities to include P2P flying and a TATL flight, especially if the airport in question was willing to pony up money. One of the conditions was no existing TATL or TPAC service, which isn't the case at AUS, but apparently they're one of them.

That rumor is apparently still valid with 4-5 more candidates in the running, but now there's also talk (from the same source on APC as well) of taking on the ULCCs head to head in some markets, which clashes with the original rumor.

How are they going to do it?


I don't know, But I have heard the aircraft flying these routes will be in non-standard configs per tech ops.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
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