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ADrum23
Posts: 1432
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:22 pm

reggiet wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
ADrum23 wrote:
reggiet wrote:

With the current estimates of tripling their gate
Footprint it would grow to about 70 flights a day.


How many gates will DL have compared with UA/AA/WN?


Current AUS US3 & WN gates. Alaska and Virgin have a few gates mixed in.

DL
3

UA
5

AA
5

WN
6


And how many gates will DL gain from the 9 being added? Will they give up any of their existing ones?
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4406
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:10 pm

reggiet wrote:
KAUSavgeek wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I have a wishlist.


MCO-AUS CR9


Not really allowed to say where I got this from, but MCO-AUS will become a thing, prolly on mainline


Yes, I also heard the MCO-AUS rumor in the framework of 757 service in July.
There's a heck of a gulf between a CR9 and 757. Does Austin to Orlando really need 200 seats each way?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I257 using Tapatalk
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
reggiet
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 5:04 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:05 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
reggiet wrote:
KAUSavgeek wrote:

Not really allowed to say where I got this from, but MCO-AUS will become a thing, prolly on mainline


Yes, I also heard the MCO-AUS rumor in the framework of 757 service in July.
There's a heck of a gulf between a CR9 and 757. Does Austin to Orlando really need 200 seats each way?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I257 using Tapatalk


I think the 757 would be seasonal
Reggie in Austin
 
reggiet
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 5:04 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:09 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
reggiet wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
ADrum23 wrote:

How many gates will DL have compared with UA/AA/WN?


Current AUS US3 & WN gates. Alaska and Virgin have a few gates mixed in.

DL
3

UA
5

AA
5

WN
6


And how many gates will DL gain from the 9 being added? Will they give up any of their existing ones?



6 Gates Gained. And giving up 4, 5 and 6 is supposedly the plan although there were DL contractors on site last month wiring gates 5 and 6 for the large flat screens that exist in Atlanta with the upgrade and non rev seat status
Reggie in Austin
 
msycajun
Posts: 691
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:25 pm

Nola wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:

Air France is too premium-heavy to operate a 787 to MSY. This is very wishful thinking.


This gets back to an oft repeated A.net fallacy that there is a market for a MSY-CDG flight because 100 years ago there was the historical tie between Louisiana Cajuns and the French Speaking Arcadians.

There are probably more viable markets for AF or DL to serve from MSY whilst BA matures the market first.


I cannot speak to any A.net fallacy, but while there are still some sizable economic ties (particularly in the chemical industry), the rationale for this route (or AMS) is that AA is expanding in MSY and with the BA flight, there is a risk to DL that AA will pick up loyalty in what has, heretofore, been a strong market for DL.


A few points:
An AF 789 is actually less premium heavy than the BA 788 which currently flies into MSY. We actually very often see the even more premium 789 subbed in on a regular basis.

While I don't think anyone seriously believes that the Cajuns/Acadians are driving any large amount of traffic, there still are strong cultural ties. MSY is probably the smallest US city with a French Consulate. The state brings in hundreds of French teachers and their families every year to teach in the public schools. Then there are the business ties in the chemical, shipping, and tech sectors - even the city's buses are run by a French company. I could go on, but all of which is to say that there are disproportionate levels of traffic to CDG compared to most US metros.

I think the point about loyalty is also important. DL has generally been the strongest legacy at MSY, but it offers no international partners, while AA has BA and UA has AC and CM. AA is close to matching DL pax numbers this year and UA is building a club in the new terminal. Not saying it will definitely happen soon, but I do think there is room for CDG, especially since it is much better than LHR for connections to secondary Europe/Africa/Middle East (although not as good as AMS).
 
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flymco753
Posts: 2354
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:47 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
reggiet wrote:
KAUSavgeek wrote:

Not really allowed to say where I got this from, but MCO-AUS will become a thing, prolly on mainline


Yes, I also heard the MCO-AUS rumor in the framework of 757 service in July.
There's a heck of a gulf between a CR9 and 757. Does Austin to Orlando really need 200 seats each way?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I257 using Tapatalk
Nooooo, 31J (319) at most.
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

*Future Route Network Planner*
 
jubguy3
Posts: 495
Joined: Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:18 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:52 pm

msycajun wrote:
Nola wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

This gets back to an oft repeated A.net fallacy that there is a market for a MSY-CDG flight because 100 years ago there was the historical tie between Louisiana Cajuns and the French Speaking Arcadians.

There are probably more viable markets for AF or DL to serve from MSY whilst BA matures the market first.


I cannot speak to any A.net fallacy, but while there are still some sizable economic ties (particularly in the chemical industry), the rationale for this route (or AMS) is that AA is expanding in MSY and with the BA flight, there is a risk to DL that AA will pick up loyalty in what has, heretofore, been a strong market for DL.


A few points:
An AF 789 is actually less premium heavy than the BA 788 which currently flies into MSY. We actually very often see the even more premium 789 subbed in on a regular basis.

While I don't think anyone seriously believes that the Cajuns/Acadians are driving any large amount of traffic, there still are strong cultural ties. MSY is probably the smallest US city with a French Consulate. The state brings in hundreds of French teachers and their families every year to teach in the public schools. Then there are the business ties in the chemical, shipping, and tech sectors - even the city's buses are run by a French company. I could go on, but all of which is to say that there are disproportionate levels of traffic to CDG compared to most US metros.

I think the point about loyalty is also important. DL has generally been the strongest legacy at MSY, but it offers no international partners, while AA has BA and UA has AC and CM. AA is close to matching DL pax numbers this year and UA is building a club in the new terminal. Not saying it will definitely happen soon, but I do think there is room for CDG, especially since it is much better than LHR for connections to secondary Europe/Africa/Middle East (although not as good as AMS).


I think service to CDG would be competitive, but it would never be on AF. International SkyTeam carriers with joint ventures (KE, AF, KL) limit their service to the largest cities and SkyTeam hubs. MSY would fit well into Delta's portfolio, but Air France is wishful thinking that two legacy European carriers could operate profitably. A Delta low-J 76W would probably work best.
 
reggiet
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 5:04 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:57 pm

flymco753 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
reggiet wrote:

Yes, I also heard the MCO-AUS rumor in the framework of 757 service in July.
There's a heck of a gulf between a CR9 and 757. Does Austin to Orlando really need 200 seats each way?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I257 using Tapatalk
Nooooo, 31J (319) at most.


Just rumors my man.
Reggie in Austin
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 2354
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:02 pm

reggiet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
There's a heck of a gulf between a CR9 and 757. Does Austin to Orlando really need 200 seats each way?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I257 using Tapatalk
Nooooo, 31J (319) at most.


Just rumors my man.
I guess we'll have to find out what happens next, I'll still stick to my guess with a CR9 though.
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

*Future Route Network Planner*
 
jordanh
Posts: 165
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:56 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:03 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
You make some fair points, but I disagree with some of them. Texas is the second largest state in the Union (population wise), there is plenty of traffic to go around. AUS (and SAN, since it has been admitted that they sometimes overlap) have the second and third fastest growing city economies according to the article I mentioned above. There is plenty of market for DL to tap into as combined, the AUS/SAN region boasts some 3 million+ inhabitants (and growing!). None of the US3 have a strong presence within the area. As the business community grows in the area, there will be much more demand for nonstop flights (both domestic and international) and DL can serve that.
Sure, they could fly to DFW or IAH to use AA or UA respectively, but will travelers really want to connect in those airports forever? I also might add DL is becoming the preferred airline of choice for younger professionals and with no presence in Texas currently, the Austin/San Antonio area opens up some intriguing opportunities. Not only could a hypothetical AUS hub become a reliever for E/W traffic, it could also become a gateway to Mexico/Latin America, much better than any of their existing hubs do now.
You are right, I wouldn't say a hub is likely, but I will say it is certainly a possibility down the road. Right now, DL only flies from AUS to their hubs/focus cities, they do yet fly to any non hub/focus cities.


I think you can't see the forest for the trees. Sure, loyal AA flyers from Austin must go to DFW to make most connections... and UA flyers there must go to IAH. But those airports - DFW and IAH - collect passengers from much smaller Texas cities, and build up enough mass to make those large hubs sustainable. If DL were to make a true hub out of AUS, where would their "spokes" in Texas go? The biggest markets: Dallas and Houston? Delta has many loyal flyers in those cities, I am sure, but I don't think they would see any reason to go via Austin rather than any other existing Delta hub. While I don't see how Austin could offer much more - as a hub - than what they already have in the South of the USA;,I do see that concentrating on Austin's O&D traffic - with some of San Antonio and a lot of Austin's northern suburbs thrown in - make it viable to expand there.

But not as a hub.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4406
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:13 pm

reggiet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
reggiet wrote:

Just rumors my man.
I guess we'll have to find out what happens next, I'll still stick to my guess with a CR9 though.


Still would be a nice add either way


I feel like that's one of those which would start on an RJ and might find its way up to mainline at some point, much as is the case with many of the other point-to-point flights they run.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
reggiet
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 5:04 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:14 pm

flymco753 wrote:
reggiet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Nooooo, 31J (319) at most.


Just rumors my man.
I guess we'll have to find out what happens next, I'll still stick to my guess with a CR9 though.


Still would be a nice add either way
Reggie in Austin
 
reggiet
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 5:04 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:30 pm

jordanh wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
You make some fair points, but I disagree with some of them. Texas is the second largest state in the Union (population wise), there is plenty of traffic to go around. AUS (and SAN, since it has been admitted that they sometimes overlap) have the second and third fastest growing city economies according to the article I mentioned above. There is plenty of market for DL to tap into as combined, the AUS/SAN region boasts some 3 million+ inhabitants (and growing!). None of the US3 have a strong presence within the area. As the business community grows in the area, there will be much more demand for nonstop flights (both domestic and international) and DL can serve that.
Sure, they could fly to DFW or IAH to use AA or UA respectively, but will travelers really want to connect in those airports forever? I also might add DL is becoming the preferred airline of choice for younger professionals and with no presence in Texas currently, the Austin/San Antonio area opens up some intriguing opportunities. Not only could a hypothetical AUS hub become a reliever for E/W traffic, it could also become a gateway to Mexico/Latin America, much better than any of their existing hubs do now.
You are right, I wouldn't say a hub is likely, but I will say it is certainly a possibility down the road. Right now, DL only flies from AUS to their hubs/focus cities, they do yet fly to any non hub/focus cities.


I think you can't see the forest for the trees. Sure, loyal AA flyers from Austin must go to DFW to make most connections... and UA flyers there must go to IAH. But those airports - DFW and IAH - collect passengers from much smaller Texas cities, and build up enough mass to make those large hubs sustainable. If DL were to make a true hub out of AUS, where would their "spokes" in Texas go? The biggest markets: Dallas and Houston? Delta has many loyal flyers in those cities, I am sure, but I don't think they would see any reason to go via Austin rather than any other existing Delta hub. While I don't see how Austin could offer much more - as a hub - than what they already have in the South of the USA;,I do see that concentrating on Austin's O&D traffic - with some of San Antonio and a lot of Austin's northern suburbs thrown in - make it viable to expand there.

But not as a hub.



I concur Jordanh. Lots of AUS DL growth in a focus city size strategy is right around the corner (2018/2019) IMO. But a true DL hub in the Backyard of AA and UA I don’t see. I concur that there are big market share impediments that exist, on top of current airport structural/limited space impediments that are Texas sized hurdles
Reggie in Austin
 
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flymco753
Posts: 2354
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:37 pm

reggiet wrote:
jordanh wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
You make some fair points, but I disagree with some of them. Texas is the second largest state in the Union (population wise), there is plenty of traffic to go around. AUS (and SAN, since it has been admitted that they sometimes overlap) have the second and third fastest growing city economies according to the article I mentioned above. There is plenty of market for DL to tap into as combined, the AUS/SAN region boasts some 3 million+ inhabitants (and growing!). None of the US3 have a strong presence within the area. As the business community grows in the area, there will be much more demand for nonstop flights (both domestic and international) and DL can serve that.
Sure, they could fly to DFW or IAH to use AA or UA respectively, but will travelers really want to connect in those airports forever? I also might add DL is becoming the preferred airline of choice for younger professionals and with no presence in Texas currently, the Austin/San Antonio area opens up some intriguing opportunities. Not only could a hypothetical AUS hub become a reliever for E/W traffic, it could also become a gateway to Mexico/Latin America, much better than any of their existing hubs do now.
You are right, I wouldn't say a hub is likely, but I will say it is certainly a possibility down the road. Right now, DL only flies from AUS to their hubs/focus cities, they do yet fly to any non hub/focus cities.


I think you can't see the forest for the trees. Sure, loyal AA flyers from Austin must go to DFW to make most connections... and UA flyers there must go to IAH. But those airports - DFW and IAH - collect passengers from much smaller Texas cities, and build up enough mass to make those large hubs sustainable. If DL were to make a true hub out of AUS, where would their "spokes" in Texas go? The biggest markets: Dallas and Houston? Delta has many loyal flyers in those cities, I am sure, but I don't think they would see any reason to go via Austin rather than any other existing Delta hub. While I don't see how Austin could offer much more - as a hub - than what they already have in the South of the USA;,I do see that concentrating on Austin's O&D traffic - with some of San Antonio and a lot of Austin's northern suburbs thrown in - make it viable to expand there.

But not as a hub.



I concur Jordanh. Lots of AUS DL growth in a focus city size strategy is right around the corner (2018/2019) IMO. But a true DL hub in the Backyard of AA and UA I don’t see. I concur that there are big market share impediments that exist, on top of current airport structural/limited space impediments that are Texas sized hurdles
I'm surprised nobody really mentioned what SAT could turn into as well.
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

*Future Route Network Planner*
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 2304
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:43 pm

flymco753 wrote:
reggiet wrote:
jordanh wrote:

I think you can't see the forest for the trees. Sure, loyal AA flyers from Austin must go to DFW to make most connections... and UA flyers there must go to IAH. But those airports - DFW and IAH - collect passengers from much smaller Texas cities, and build up enough mass to make those large hubs sustainable. If DL were to make a true hub out of AUS, where would their "spokes" in Texas go? The biggest markets: Dallas and Houston? Delta has many loyal flyers in those cities, I am sure, but I don't think they would see any reason to go via Austin rather than any other existing Delta hub. While I don't see how Austin could offer much more - as a hub - than what they already have in the South of the USA;,I do see that concentrating on Austin's O&D traffic - with some of San Antonio and a lot of Austin's northern suburbs thrown in - make it viable to expand there.

But not as a hub.



I concur Jordanh. Lots of AUS DL growth in a focus city size strategy is right around the corner (2018/2019) IMO. But a true DL hub in the Backyard of AA and UA I don’t see. I concur that there are big market share impediments that exist, on top of current airport structural/limited space impediments that are Texas sized hurdles
I'm surprised nobody really mentioned what SAT could turn into as well.


SAT has no DL service to SEA, BOS, RDU, or CVG and no p2p so I can't imagine they are that interested in expanding SAT.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
reggiet
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 5:04 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:45 pm

flymco753 wrote:
reggiet wrote:
jordanh wrote:

I think you can't see the forest for the trees. Sure, loyal AA flyers from Austin must go to DFW to make most connections... and UA flyers there must go to IAH. But those airports - DFW and IAH - collect passengers from much smaller Texas cities, and build up enough mass to make those large hubs sustainable. If DL were to make a true hub out of AUS, where would their "spokes" in Texas go? The biggest markets: Dallas and Houston? Delta has many loyal flyers in those cities, I am sure, but I don't think they would see any reason to go via Austin rather than any other existing Delta hub. While I don't see how Austin could offer much more - as a hub - than what they already have in the South of the USA;,I do see that concentrating on Austin's O&D traffic - with some of San Antonio and a lot of Austin's northern suburbs thrown in - make it viable to expand there.

But not as a hub.



I concur Jordanh. Lots of AUS DL growth in a focus city size strategy is right around the corner (2018/2019) IMO. But a true DL hub in the Backyard of AA and UA I don’t see. I concur that there are big market share impediments that exist, on top of current airport structural/limited space impediments that are Texas sized hurdles
I'm surprised nobody really mentioned what SAT could turn into as well.



If i’m not mistaken Texas could very well be an MCO/TPA template. In a manner of speaking, MCO is the focus city that TPA the AFP (alternative flying program for flight crews) reports to.
In this theoretical case, AUS would be the focus city that SAT the AFP reports to.
Reggie in Austin
 
Nola
Posts: 249
Joined: Thu May 29, 2014 1:40 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:00 pm

jubguy3 wrote:
msycajun wrote:
Nola wrote:

I cannot speak to any A.net fallacy, but while there are still some sizable economic ties (particularly in the chemical industry), the rationale for this route (or AMS) is that AA is expanding in MSY and with the BA flight, there is a risk to DL that AA will pick up loyalty in what has, heretofore, been a strong market for DL.


A few points:
An AF 789 is actually less premium heavy than the BA 788 which currently flies into MSY. We actually very often see the even more premium 789 subbed in on a regular basis.

While I don't think anyone seriously believes that the Cajuns/Acadians are driving any large amount of traffic, there still are strong cultural ties. MSY is probably the smallest US city with a French Consulate. The state brings in hundreds of French teachers and their families every year to teach in the public schools. Then there are the business ties in the chemical, shipping, and tech sectors - even the city's buses are run by a French company. I could go on, but all of which is to say that there are disproportionate levels of traffic to CDG compared to most US metros.

I think the point about loyalty is also important. DL has generally been the strongest legacy at MSY, but it offers no international partners, while AA has BA and UA has AC and CM. AA is close to matching DL pax numbers this year and UA is building a club in the new terminal. Not saying it will definitely happen soon, but I do think there is room for CDG, especially since it is much better than LHR for connections to secondary Europe/Africa/Middle East (although not as good as AMS).


I think service to CDG would be competitive, but it would never be on AF. International SkyTeam carriers with joint ventures (KE, AF, KL) limit their service to the largest cities and SkyTeam hubs. MSY would fit well into Delta's portfolio, but Air France is wishful thinking that two legacy European carriers could operate profitably. A Delta low-J 76W would probably work best.


Hopefully, SkyTeam is looking at the success BA has had along with the increased presence of AA and will do something about it, either on DL or AF metal. I don't know if the New Orleans Aviation Board is pushing a route, but it would seem to be in both the city and the carriers' interest to try one out.
 
777Mech
Posts: 444
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:57 pm

reggiet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
reggiet wrote:

Just rumors my man.
I guess we'll have to find out what happens next, I'll still stick to my guess with a CR9 though.


Still would be a nice add either way


I'd look for a 738 doing SEA-AUS-MCO and reverse.
 
masonh2479
Posts: 102
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:08 pm

The big announcement today for AUS was a big nothing unfortunately. The sky club that we've known about for months was revealed.
 
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cvgComair
Posts: 1597
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:19 pm

reggiet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
There's a heck of a gulf between a CR9 and 757. Does Austin to Orlando really need 200 seats each way?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I257 using Tapatalk
Nooooo, 31J (319) at most.

Just rumors my man.

Are these rumors actually from a credible source or is this just talk amongst DL crew and staff at AUS. Crew "rumors" are terribly inaccurate and should always be taken lightly, things such as AA setting up a focus city at CVG have emerged from such talk. I have no doubt that AUS will build up some PTP flying from AUS over the next few years, but I am doubtful about rumors related to AUS when the "big" announcement was just about a SkyClub. In of itself, a SkyClub gives no indication of DL's future plans, many cities that are not very important to DL have SkyClubs such as BNA/JAX/DFW/DEN/MEM/MKE/FLL/TPA/PBI. Not saying nothing is happening at AUS, but I would be careful getting too excited about rumors.
Next: CVG-BOS (Delta Air Lines MD90), BOS-AMS (Delta Air Lines A333), AMS-CPH (KLM B738)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5130
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:57 pm

NateGreat wrote:
I saw something similar to this on Anet for AA, so let’s have some fun here. This is for the years 2025-2030 and onward. What routes/specific cities do y’all predict each widebody aircraft will serve in Delta’s fleet? Also, if any, what possible widebody additions may we see by then?

Airbus A330-200:
Airbus A330-300:
Airbus A330-900neo:
Airbus A350-900XWB:
Boeing 767-300ER (in the process of being phased out, if not already phased out):
Boeing 767-400ER:
Boeing 777-200ER:
Boeing 777-200LR:

I know that the 777 fleets, as well as the 767-400 fleet and very likely the A330neo fleet will all have the same onboard products as the A350 fleet. Not sure about the A330-200/300 though.

won't be close to going by 2025. The 25 NEOs are probably going to replace 20-25 frames and the A350 is replacing 3 frames.

Overthecascades wrote:
Don’t think there’ll be much happening with DL in Seattle on the long haul international front before the new IAF completes which is Q4 2019. Domestically DFW and AUS are possible in 2018.

Management has already said they are done with international expansion at SEA till the IAF is done.

Even with that, I don't really see much more Delta could do. Give TPE a try maybe. Go back to KIX/NGO seems highly unlikely. Europe outside of AMS/CDG/LHR is even more unlikely.

My guess is international growth a SEA comes from 339s going to PEK/PVG/NRT/ICN, maybe starting TPE and adding frequency to LHR. That is all at most.
BWIAirport wrote:
Could we see more o&d routes from CDG, like they have CDG-PIT/IND/RDU? I could see CDG-BWI/CLE/BDL/PHL/BNA tried out on a 752/763 seasonally.

The issue right now is lack of frames. The international fleet is pretty much at the point that something has to be cut for something to be added. The 350 is adding a little bit of slack but mods on the 764/777 fleets are about to start and that will hurt. Plus 3 767s leaving this year.
Nola wrote:
MSY-CDG would be great. Likely on AF 787, if ever, but it would be great. A hub/focus in AUS would also be really helpful because I'm frequently having to go east to ATL to then turn around and go west.

highly highly unlikely. AF/KL/DL have been using Delta small metal (757/767) to start new cities. I can't remember the last time KL/AF added a city that wasn't started by Delta first.

If MSY-CDG or AMS happens it will be on a low-J 763.
commavia wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Why can't it be a hub? DL needs a presence in Texas, it is the biggest hole in their network. Texas is home to 3 of the top 5 fastest growing city economies according to a recent Forbes magazine article, so DL is missing out.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/karstenstrauss/2018/01/03/the-10-big-u-s-cities-with-the-fastest-growing-and-slowest-growing-economies/#4c3f51c74734

They'll probably start out with a focus city like operation (along the lines of CVG, RDU, BOS, etc), but it would be in their long term interest to establish a hub similar to SLC, expect a little bit bigger. Of course, AUS doesn't have the space right now for a hub, but a new satellite concourse could be added to the south of the existing terminal building and connected via an underground tunnel (which I believe is one of the future growth scenarios AUS has in its master plan anyway).


Both the demographics and geography of AUS are suboptimal. AUS would be, by a considerably margin, the smallest metro in the U.S. to support a network carrier hub, other than SLC (more on that shortly). In addition, AUS is quite far south to serve as a convenient hub for anything but east-west flows (largely already covered by ATL). Neither of those challenges is insurmountable - again, SLC is smaller, and IAH is further south. But perhaps the biggest impediment to AUS as a viable hub is its situation within 200 miles of two of the largest and strongest hubs in the country. SLC (like CLT) benefits from being the second hub in its region. I remain skeptical that Texas can support three network carrier hubs. Regional markets that would presumably feed a hypothetical AUS hub are all already sufficiently served by competitors.

I think what's far more likely, if anything, is a CVG- or RDU-style, O&D-tailored "focus city" with nonstop links to hubs and key O&D markets. Delta is already doing that, and could plausibly do more. But I suspect doing so will be at network-dilutive yields given that both AA and United have very strong penetration with the AUS corporate market and, in AUS as in so many other places, both of those competitors benefit from having hubs in many of the nation's largest and most important O&D markets. And oh yeah, then there's this little airline called Southwest.

At some point, well in the future, maybe. But for the foreseeable future - with respect - it just doesn't seem plausible.

All of this is exactly spot on.

Midwestindy wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
reggiet wrote:


I concur Jordanh. Lots of AUS DL growth in a focus city size strategy is right around the corner (2018/2019) IMO. But a true DL hub in the Backyard of AA and UA I don’t see. I concur that there are big market share impediments that exist, on top of current airport structural/limited space impediments that are Texas sized hurdles
I'm surprised nobody really mentioned what SAT could turn into as well.


SAT has no DL service to SEA, BOS, RDU, or CVG and no p2p so I can't imagine they are that interested in expanding SAT.

IMO its only a matter of time till we see SEA-SAT. Also It wouldn't surprise me to see CVG-SAT come back and RDU/BOS added on RJs. That is all I see happening in SAT though.

reggiet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
reggiet wrote:


I concur Jordanh. Lots of AUS DL growth in a focus city size strategy is right around the corner (2018/2019) IMO. But a true DL hub in the Backyard of AA and UA I don’t see. I concur that there are big market share impediments that exist, on top of current airport structural/limited space impediments that are Texas sized hurdles
I'm surprised nobody really mentioned what SAT could turn into as well.



If i’m not mistaken Texas could very well be an MCO/TPA template. In a manner of speaking, MCO is the focus city that TPA the AFP (alternative flying program for flight crews) reports to.
In this theoretical case, AUS would be the focus city that SAT the AFP reports to.

If SAT gets and AFP and Dallas doesn't employees may riot.

Plus SAT is close enough that they can just have AUS crews cover, much like MIA covers FLL and PBI, NYC covers JFK/LGA/EWR, LAX covers SNA etc.

On top of all of that, it would shock me if AUS itself is anything more than an AFP for the FAs and a virtual base for pilots.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:51 pm

masonh2479 wrote:
The big announcement today for AUS was a big nothing unfortunately. The sky club that we've known about for months was revealed.


:lol:

Where does this stack up in terms of most underwhelming announcements, is this worse than the CMH 5K a while back?
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:02 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
The big announcement today for AUS was a big nothing unfortunately. The sky club that we've known about for months was revealed.


:lol:

Where does this stack up in terms of most underwhelming announcements, is this worse than the CMH 5K a while back?


Yes.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
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flymco753
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:37 pm

Question, has DL finished planning aircraft types for April? I was looking through the flight schedules for DTW, the last 2 weeks in March there will be 2 A321’s on FLL and 1 on TPA. Both of these routes are showing all 4x 757 in April. What are the odds the 757 is placeholding for 321s? I assume we’d expect final aircraft adjustments in the next 2 weeks?
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

*Future Route Network Planner*
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:58 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Question, has DL finished planning aircraft types for April? I was looking through the flight schedules for DTW, the last 2 weeks in March there will be 2 A321’s on FLL and 1 on TPA. Both of these routes are showing all 4x 757 in April. What are the odds the 757 is placeholding for 321s? I assume we’d expect final aircraft adjustments in the next 2 weeks?

Domestically Delta will make changes pretty short notice. I'd bet APR is just place holders.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:36 am

deltal1011man wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Question, has DL finished planning aircraft types for April? I was looking through the flight schedules for DTW, the last 2 weeks in March there will be 2 A321’s on FLL and 1 on TPA. Both of these routes are showing all 4x 757 in April. What are the odds the 757 is placeholding for 321s? I assume we’d expect final aircraft adjustments in the next 2 weeks?

Domestically Delta will make changes pretty short notice. I'd bet APR is just place holders.
I figured because RSW and TPA only get the 321 for a week and a half until the spring schedule, it made no sense to me, that said, I think it’s possible DTW-FLL/TPA/RSW could be going almost to all A321. LAX and LAS have some in there as well for a few weeks until it all changes.
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

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BoeingGuy
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:54 am

Midwestindy wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
The big announcement today for AUS was a big nothing unfortunately. The sky club that we've known about for months was revealed.


:lol:

Where does this stack up in terms of most underwhelming announcements, is this worse than the CMH 5K a while back?


Didn’t DFW have a big announcement scheduled a few years ago? It was something like they were changing the soda pop vendor.
 
brian415
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:30 am

Here's Airways Mag's article on Delta's CVG revival ...

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-t ... incinnati/
 
ThomasMTroxell
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:47 am

Delta announced today that they are leaving the Palau and Saipan markets.

Per memo:
"APAC leaders today notified employees in the Asia Pacific region that Delta would be ending direct service between Narita and Palau and Narita and Saipan effective May 6.

The decision to end service was made due to unsustainable pressure on these two routes, including lower demand in the Micronesia market.

"The most difficult part of these decisions is the impact on our people," said Matteo Curcio, Vice President – Asia Pacific. "We will offer a package to our employees in Palau and Saipan, and any employee who has work authorization in the United States, or any other location, may apply for open positions via eBid."

These reductions, along with the recent Guam closure and upcoming Narita-Shanghai flight suspension, will further increase staffing overages in Delta's Narita operations.

"As we have done in the past, we will offer a Japan-wide voluntary separation program, and in addition, any employee who has work authorization in the United States, or any other location, may apply for open positions via eBid," Matteo said. "Later this year, Delta will open a Customer Engagement Center in Japan in order to provide additional employment opportunities for our Japan-based employees while adding a valuable strategic layer in support of Delta's worldwide operations."

Always sad to see Delta leave markets and I feel for the impacted employees.
CRJ CR7 CR9 E45 E70 E90 DC9 MD80 MD88 MD90 717 733 734 735 73W 738 739ER 744 752 753 763 76W 764 77E 77L 77W A319 A320 A321 A343 US HP DL FL WN LH AC BA AB UA TW
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:48 pm

Interesting posted from CVGComair, I had originally expected CVG to get down to hubs + BOS, CDG, MCO, and maybe FLL, but its now becoming more of an alternative connecting point, while DTW and IND are also growing for DL in the Midwest.
https://blueswandaily.com/delta-to-expand-service-at-cincinnati-northern-kentucky-international-airport/

I agree that the long-term outlook will probably not have all these carriers on every route. Right now the LCC's are exploding because of cheap fuel, a strong economy, higher wages. The next time the economy struggles, many of these LCC's are going to be hurting and the cycle is going to start all over again. I think DL had every intention of fully dropping CVG in 2020 when the leases expire, but the resurgence of the economy has changed that course. All airports are seeing record amounts of passengers because people have the money to spend. I hate to be negative, but some of these airlines are going to be hurting on the next economic downturn. I think many of them have learned from 9/11 and '08/'09, so it probably won't be quite as dramatic, but certainly G4 would have trouble filling its daily CVG-SAV flight and DL will not have 3xB738 to MCO.


I wonder if, after the problems DL has, and appears to be having today with ATL storms and cancellations, if they starting to reconsider their high-level capacity distribution amongst hubs.
Image

What if they moved say: 100 daily departures from ATL to DTW and around 30 to CVG? Would that help them operationally? It might help, but only on the few days per year when ATL has problems, but would be an interesting development.
The density of DL's network in the Midwest is impressive, and recent increases at CVG point to it becoming newly strategic for them.
Do you think there the growth will stay that way, or are they just trying to push G4 and F9 out in the time before their lease runs out, at which point they would shrink again?
Another interesting article on DL at RDU: https://blueswandaily.com/delta-touts-success-in-raleigh-but-meets-fierce-competition-in-boston-from-jetblue/

I wonder if this weeks stock crash (DOW down a record 1175 points on Monday) is a harbinger of a downturn that makes domestic capacity untenable.

But there is this:https://blueswandaily.com/solid-demand-and-tax-cut-benefits-fuel-deltas-bullish-outlook-for-corporate-travel/

So I'm positive overall, especially for the Midwest.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA (coming soon)
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
jubguy3
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:55 pm

With the upcoming terminal redevelopment, including the optimism by Delta that the final 15 gate extension on the north concourse is necessary, I could see SLC approaching 550k system seats in 2026 very easily.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:18 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Interesting posted from CVGComair, I had originally expected CVG to get down to hubs + BOS, CDG, MCO, and maybe FLL, but its now becoming more of an alternative connecting point, while DTW and IND are also growing for DL in the Midwest.
https://blueswandaily.com/delta-to-expand-service-at-cincinnati-northern-kentucky-international-airport/

I agree that the long-term outlook will probably not have all these carriers on every route. Right now the LCC's are exploding because of cheap fuel, a strong economy, higher wages. The next time the economy struggles, many of these LCC's are going to be hurting and the cycle is going to start all over again. I think DL had every intention of fully dropping CVG in 2020 when the leases expire, but the resurgence of the economy has changed that course. All airports are seeing record amounts of passengers because people have the money to spend. I hate to be negative, but some of these airlines are going to be hurting on the next economic downturn. I think many of them have learned from 9/11 and '08/'09, so it probably won't be quite as dramatic, but certainly G4 would have trouble filling its daily CVG-SAV flight and DL will not have 3xB738 to MCO.


I wonder if, after the problems DL has, and appears to be having today with ATL storms and cancellations, if they starting to reconsider their high-level capacity distribution amongst hubs.
Image

What if they moved say: 100 daily departures from ATL to DTW and around 30 to CVG? Would that help them operationally? It might help, but only on the few days per year when ATL has problems, but would be an interesting development.

The density of DL's network in the Midwest is impressive, and recent increases at CVG point to it becoming newly strategic for them.
Do you think there the growth will stay that way, or are they just trying to push G4 and F9 out in the time before their lease runs out, at which point they would shrink again?
Another interesting article on DL at RDU: https://blueswandaily.com/delta-touts-success-in-raleigh-but-meets-fierce-competition-in-boston-from-jetblue/

I wonder if this weeks stock crash (DOW down a record 1175 points on Monday) is a harbinger of a downturn that makes domestic capacity untenable.

But there is this:https://blueswandaily.com/solid-demand-and-tax-cut-benefits-fuel-deltas-bullish-outlook-for-corporate-travel/

So I'm positive overall, especially for the Midwest.

Its not going to happen but if it did it would be incredibly stupid.

Atlanta is the most profitable hub at least in the US and probably in the world. Even when it has a major melt down, the cost of that melt down is peanuts compared to what the hub makes.

Move flights out is quite literally spending dollars to save pennies, and Delta management has said as much.

Management did something that in hindsight that weren't the best ideas, but they are changing somethings around as well as the continued investments in technology and infrastructure to make sure some of the things don't happen.
 
ADrum23
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:21 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
I wonder if, after the problems DL has, and appears to be having today with ATL storms and cancellations, if they starting to reconsider their high-level capacity distribution amongst hubs.

What if they moved say: 100 daily departures from ATL to DTW and around 30 to CVG? Would that help them operationally? It might help, but only on the few days per year when ATL has problems, but would be an interesting development.
The density of DL's network in the Midwest is impressive, and recent increases at CVG point to it becoming newly strategic for them.
Do you think there the growth will stay that way, or are they just trying to push G4 and F9 out in the time before their lease runs out, at which point they would shrink again?


We actually discussed this during the ATL power outage back in December (see the Rest of Ohio 2017 thread for more info). Originally, I supported DL dehubbing CVG completely, but in the last few months, I have gone 180 and have been thinking DL made a mistake cutting back CVG as much as they have.

This thinking led me to believe that DL should build back up CVG into a 200-250 or so flight reliever hub for ATL (a bit smaller size wise than SLC). Yes, you have DTW to the north, but cvgComair pointed out that DTW (and MSP) doesn't necessarily serve the same traffic flows as ATL, and CVG would be a better location for a E/W reliever hub for ATL, as it is more centrally located and further inland from the Great Lakes, thus, less chance of weather problems. DL has 28 gates on Concourse B at CVG, which if you had eight flights per gate per day, that would be 224 flights per day. So essentially, if DL wanted a 200 flight reliever hub at CVG, they could do it with minimal investment since the infrastructure is virtually already there.

However, they have shown no signs of being interested in doing this, as they want to grow ATL as big as possible. Someday, that will come back to bite DL as I believe slot restrictions will inevitably be imposed at ATL if we continue to see things such as December's power outage.

Who knows if this recent growth by DL means they are committed to CVG long term or not. It will be interesting to see what happens when the lease expires in 2020 and it is time to design a new terminal.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:24 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
I wonder if, after the problems DL has, and appears to be having today with ATL storms and cancellations, if they starting to reconsider their high-level capacity distribution amongst hubs.

What if they moved say: 100 daily departures from ATL to DTW and around 30 to CVG? Would that help them operationally? It might help, but only on the few days per year when ATL has problems, but would be an interesting development.
The density of DL's network in the Midwest is impressive, and recent increases at CVG point to it becoming newly strategic for them.
Do you think there the growth will stay that way, or are they just trying to push G4 and F9 out in the time before their lease runs out, at which point they would shrink again?


We actually discussed this during the ATL power outage back in December (see the Rest of Ohio 2017 thread for more info). Originally, I supported DL dehubbing CVG completely, but in the last few months, I have gone 180 and have been thinking DL made a mistake cutting back CVG as much as they have.

This thinking led me to believe that DL should build back up CVG into a 200-250 or so flight reliever hub for ATL (a bit smaller size wise than SLC). Yes, you have DTW to the north, but cvgComair pointed out that DTW (and MSP) doesn't necessarily serve the same traffic flows as ATL, and CVG would be a better location for a E/W reliever hub for ATL, as it is more centrally located and further inland from the Great Lakes, thus, less chance of weather problems. DL has 28 gates on Concourse B at CVG, which if you had eight flights per gate per day, that would be 224 flights per day. So essentially, if DL wanted a 200 flight reliever hub at CVG, they could do it with minimal investment since the infrastructure is virtually already there.

However, they have shown no signs of being interested in doing this, as they want to grow ATL as big as possible. Someday, that will come back to bite DL as I believe slot restrictions will inevitably be imposed at ATL if we continue to see things such as December's power outage.


Who knows if this recent growth by DL means they are committed to CVG long term or not. It will be interesting to see what happens when the lease expires in 2020 and it is time to design a new terminal.

ATL is no where near its peak and is about to get a 6th runway. A 7th on the northside is a fairly easy thing to do as well.

Slots at ATL aren't happening.

and even if slots were an issue, Delta's flights per day have been pretty much flat for years. Capacity is up based on larger airplanes, slots do nothing to stop that.
 
ADrum23
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:49 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
I wonder if, after the problems DL has, and appears to be having today with ATL storms and cancellations, if they starting to reconsider their high-level capacity distribution amongst hubs.

What if they moved say: 100 daily departures from ATL to DTW and around 30 to CVG? Would that help them operationally? It might help, but only on the few days per year when ATL has problems, but would be an interesting development.
The density of DL's network in the Midwest is impressive, and recent increases at CVG point to it becoming newly strategic for them.
Do you think there the growth will stay that way, or are they just trying to push G4 and F9 out in the time before their lease runs out, at which point they would shrink again?


We actually discussed this during the ATL power outage back in December (see the Rest of Ohio 2017 thread for more info). Originally, I supported DL dehubbing CVG completely, but in the last few months, I have gone 180 and have been thinking DL made a mistake cutting back CVG as much as they have.

This thinking led me to believe that DL should build back up CVG into a 200-250 or so flight reliever hub for ATL (a bit smaller size wise than SLC). Yes, you have DTW to the north, but cvgComair pointed out that DTW (and MSP) doesn't necessarily serve the same traffic flows as ATL, and CVG would be a better location for a E/W reliever hub for ATL, as it is more centrally located and further inland from the Great Lakes, thus, less chance of weather problems. DL has 28 gates on Concourse B at CVG, which if you had eight flights per gate per day, that would be 224 flights per day. So essentially, if DL wanted a 200 flight reliever hub at CVG, they could do it with minimal investment since the infrastructure is virtually already there.

However, they have shown no signs of being interested in doing this, as they want to grow ATL as big as possible. Someday, that will come back to bite DL as I believe slot restrictions will inevitably be imposed at ATL if we continue to see things such as December's power outage.


Who knows if this recent growth by DL means they are committed to CVG long term or not. It will be interesting to see what happens when the lease expires in 2020 and it is time to design a new terminal.

ATL is no where near its peak and is about to get a 6th runway. A 7th on the northside is a fairly easy thing to do as well.

Slots at ATL aren't happening.

and even if slots were an issue, Delta's flights per day have been pretty much flat for years. Capacity is up based on larger airplanes, slots do nothing to stop that.


Never say never. At some point, there has to be a critical mass.
 
michman
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:51 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Interesting posted from CVGComair, I had originally expected CVG to get down to hubs + BOS, CDG, MCO, and maybe FLL, but its now becoming more of an alternative connecting point, while DTW and IND are also growing for DL in the Midwest.
https://blueswandaily.com/delta-to-expand-service-at-cincinnati-northern-kentucky-international-airport/



The connecting options at CVG are actually fairly limited. Most of the west coast flights depart before the arrival of many of the flights from the eastern cities. It's not going to be "relieving" the other large hubs in any meaningful way. Like RDU and BOS (and likely soon AUS), the flights are first and foremost about serving O & D demand with connecting options being a secondary consideration. On April 1st, AA will be moving to Concourse B and taking up 5 gates to allow ramp work on Concourse A. There's little reason to believe that a large hub build-up is in the plans for DL at CVG.
 
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:04 am

CVG is probably never going to become a primary reliever for ATL like it did during its peak, but it at least is a supplement. There are not a ton of connecting options at CVG compared to other DL hubs, but given the size of the station, there are numerous city pairs whose fastest routing on DL is through CVG. DL's operations are mostly O&D passengers, but the connecting pax still take up a sizable chunk (about 15-20% at the moment). As they resume a handful of destinations and add some more seats, there will certainly be more connecting pax as well, and that can go a long way when ATL or DTW grinds to a halt. The nice thing about DL's network is you have 4 hubs that serve intra-midwest connections, each with their own flows, so they are not completely redundant. CVG's role in this operation has greatly diminished, but it is still a nice compliment to the network and does take some flows.

As for storms/shutdowns at ATL/DTW, DL already uses CVG's for many diversions when either hub is having backups. So, to that extent, CVG is already an "emergency relief" station for DL.
Next: CVG-BOS (Delta Air Lines MD90), BOS-AMS (Delta Air Lines A333), AMS-CPH (KLM B738)
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ShinyAndChrome
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:55 am

ADrum23 wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

We actually discussed this during the ATL power outage back in December (see the Rest of Ohio 2017 thread for more info). Originally, I supported DL dehubbing CVG completely, but in the last few months, I have gone 180 and have been thinking DL made a mistake cutting back CVG as much as they have.

This thinking led me to believe that DL should build back up CVG into a 200-250 or so flight reliever hub for ATL (a bit smaller size wise than SLC). Yes, you have DTW to the north, but cvgComair pointed out that DTW (and MSP) doesn't necessarily serve the same traffic flows as ATL, and CVG would be a better location for a E/W reliever hub for ATL, as it is more centrally located and further inland from the Great Lakes, thus, less chance of weather problems. DL has 28 gates on Concourse B at CVG, which if you had eight flights per gate per day, that would be 224 flights per day. So essentially, if DL wanted a 200 flight reliever hub at CVG, they could do it with minimal investment since the infrastructure is virtually already there.

However, they have shown no signs of being interested in doing this, as they want to grow ATL as big as possible. Someday, that will come back to bite DL as I believe slot restrictions will inevitably be imposed at ATL if we continue to see things such as December's power outage.


Who knows if this recent growth by DL means they are committed to CVG long term or not. It will be interesting to see what happens when the lease expires in 2020 and it is time to design a new terminal.

ATL is no where near its peak and is about to get a 6th runway. A 7th on the northside is a fairly easy thing to do as well.

Slots at ATL aren't happening.

and even if slots were an issue, Delta's flights per day have been pretty much flat for years. Capacity is up based on larger airplanes, slots do nothing to stop that.


Never say never. At some point, there has to be a critical mass.


Slot regimes exist to manage day-to-day congestion at overcrowded airports, not as an insurance policy against weather events and system outages. And with that in mind, there’s no way ATL is getting slotted before LAX, ORD, and SFO get bumped up to JFK-level slot controls. It would be absurdly stupid.

But then again, never say never.
 
Capn
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:05 am

With all due respect to above posters, the term" reliever hub" is misunderstood.
When you are booking your. forthcoming trip from an east coast city to a city west or south of CVG, do you know what the wx. will be 2 weeks in advance or if there will be s power outage at ATL.?
My point is ATL is the most well designed and profitable hub in airline history, it works day in and day out.
No hub will be 100% free of disruptions.
To build a "RELEIVER HUB" to standby for those occasions would not be a sound business plan
I believe DL. is building CVG back up to a profitable" large station"which will grow on its own merits, not on connecting traffic.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
FA9295
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:54 am

BlatantEcho wrote:

That's been the speculation all along. However, it's been rumored for years now that DL will discontinue PDX-NRT. Hasn't happened yet.

If DL does move that to PDX-ICN, I would not at all be surprised to see NH or JL add PDX-NRT. I suspect someone will be flying it long-term.

It'll definitely be JL, not NH, since they operate to SEA. I would say that if JL were to start this route (hypothetically, if DL dropped the route for ICN) that they would use the 787-9.
 
jubguy3
Posts: 495
Joined: Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:18 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:57 am

Do you guys think SLC-ICN would be feasible within the next few years? Transatlantic growth from SLC on Delta flights has been very strong. SLC used to have a flight to Narita following the NW merger. The obvious concern is the hot and high performance of SLC limiting tire rotation speeds - does anyone know what aircraft in either DL or KE's fleet would be capable of flying the route with minimal restrictions? I am pretty sure that SLC-NRT used to be on an A33X, and that part of the issues with the route were the amount of blocked seats because of the takeoff speed limit of A330s and the volatile financial performance of Delta-Northwest following the merger. Now that international growth has expanded and matured at SLC with successful international SkyTeam carriers like KLM and Aeromexioc, and the upcoming KE DL joint venture has nearly been approved by the South Korean Transport Ministry, I feel that SLC is in a good place to start this flight. My foremost concern is that few aircraft within either companies fleet seems to be a good fit for the route. As I said before, A330s and 767s are restricted by the takeoff speed necessary at a full load (could someone with more technical experience give insight into this) regardless of runway length. The A359 is stretched thin right now and is too big; the same for the 772. KE has the 787 in it's fleet that would presumably work considering UA uses it on DEN-NRT, but KE aircraft tend to be premium heavy... it may work for SLC considering the fortress hub status, but it also may fall flat depending on where Delta chooses to send their connecting passengers. Does anyone think this would be viable given the parameters of the upcoming joint venture?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6618
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:40 am

MSP-ICN would come before SLC-ICN.
For all but the smallest markets, connecting flows for an SLC-ICN flight are redundant with SEA-ICN and LAX-ICN connections.
 
jubguy3
Posts: 495
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:17 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
MSP-ICN would come before SLC-ICN.
For all but the smallest markets, connecting flows for an SLC-ICN flight are redundant with SEA-ICN and LAX-ICN connections.


The same can be said for MSP in regards to Seattle and Detroit. I don't think MSP will get ICN service first, precisely because: Delta doesn't want to tamper with their Haneda slots, and MSP-ICN/MSP-HND would be too much capacity. I would imagine MSP-ICN being a profitable and sensible route... if they didn't have to hang on to the Haneda slot.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2725
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:02 am

jubguy3 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
MSP-ICN would come before SLC-ICN.
For all but the smallest markets, connecting flows for an SLC-ICN flight are redundant with SEA-ICN and LAX-ICN connections.


The same can be said for MSP in regards to Seattle and Detroit. I don't think MSP will get ICN service first, precisely because: Delta doesn't want to tamper with their Haneda slots, and MSP-ICN/MSP-HND would be too much capacity. I would imagine MSP-ICN being a profitable and sensible route... if they didn't have to hang on to the Haneda slot.


MSP can support service to two Asian destinations, it did for over a decade in the past when the hub was much smaller. HND relies on connections through MSP while ICN would serve MSP-Asia over connections in ICN.

Jeremy
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:54 am

ADrum23 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
I wonder if, after the problems DL has, and appears to be having today with ATL storms and cancellations, if they starting to reconsider their high-level capacity distribution amongst hubs.

What if they moved say: 100 daily departures from ATL to DTW and around 30 to CVG? Would that help them operationally? It might help, but only on the few days per year when ATL has problems, but would be an interesting development.
The density of DL's network in the Midwest is impressive, and recent increases at CVG point to it becoming newly strategic for them.
Do you think there the growth will stay that way, or are they just trying to push G4 and F9 out in the time before their lease runs out, at which point they would shrink again?


We actually discussed this during the ATL power outage back in December (see the Rest of Ohio 2017 thread for more info). Originally, I supported DL dehubbing CVG completely, but in the last few months, I have gone 180 and have been thinking DL made a mistake cutting back CVG as much as they have.

This thinking led me to believe that DL should build back up CVG into a 200-250 or so flight reliever hub for ATL (a bit smaller size wise than SLC). Yes, you have DTW to the north, but cvgComair pointed out that DTW (and MSP) doesn't necessarily serve the same traffic flows as ATL, and CVG would be a better location for a E/W reliever hub for ATL, as it is more centrally located and further inland from the Great Lakes, thus, less chance of weather problems. DL has 28 gates on Concourse B at CVG, which if you had eight flights per gate per day, that would be 224 flights per day. So essentially, if DL wanted a 200 flight reliever hub at CVG, they could do it with minimal investment since the infrastructure is virtually already there.

However, they have shown no signs of being interested in doing this, as they want to grow ATL as big as possible. Someday, that will come back to bite DL as I believe slot restrictions will inevitably be imposed at ATL if we continue to see things such as December's power outage.

Who knows if this recent growth by DL means they are committed to CVG long term or not. It will be interesting to see what happens when the lease expires in 2020 and it is time to design a new terminal.


What about the opposite scenario. If DLwanted to move everything possible that could flow through ATL, through ATL, how big could it get for them? 1200 daily departures? 150,000 daily seats? That would probably require a new runway, a new terminal, and a new inter-concourse transit system, but its another interesting hypothesis.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA (coming soon)
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1432
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:04 am

SumChristianus wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
I wonder if, after the problems DL has, and appears to be having today with ATL storms and cancellations, if they starting to reconsider their high-level capacity distribution amongst hubs.

What if they moved say: 100 daily departures from ATL to DTW and around 30 to CVG? Would that help them operationally? It might help, but only on the few days per year when ATL has problems, but would be an interesting development.
The density of DL's network in the Midwest is impressive, and recent increases at CVG point to it becoming newly strategic for them.
Do you think there the growth will stay that way, or are they just trying to push G4 and F9 out in the time before their lease runs out, at which point they would shrink again?


We actually discussed this during the ATL power outage back in December (see the Rest of Ohio 2017 thread for more info). Originally, I supported DL dehubbing CVG completely, but in the last few months, I have gone 180 and have been thinking DL made a mistake cutting back CVG as much as they have.

This thinking led me to believe that DL should build back up CVG into a 200-250 or so flight reliever hub for ATL (a bit smaller size wise than SLC). Yes, you have DTW to the north, but cvgComair pointed out that DTW (and MSP) doesn't necessarily serve the same traffic flows as ATL, and CVG would be a better location for a E/W reliever hub for ATL, as it is more centrally located and further inland from the Great Lakes, thus, less chance of weather problems. DL has 28 gates on Concourse B at CVG, which if you had eight flights per gate per day, that would be 224 flights per day. So essentially, if DL wanted a 200 flight reliever hub at CVG, they could do it with minimal investment since the infrastructure is virtually already there.

However, they have shown no signs of being interested in doing this, as they want to grow ATL as big as possible. Someday, that will come back to bite DL as I believe slot restrictions will inevitably be imposed at ATL if we continue to see things such as December's power outage.

Who knows if this recent growth by DL means they are committed to CVG long term or not. It will be interesting to see what happens when the lease expires in 2020 and it is time to design a new terminal.


What about the opposite scenario. If DL wanted to move everything possible that could flow through ATL, through ATL, how big could it get for them? 1200 daily departures? 150,000 daily seats? That would probably require a new runway, a new terminal, and a new inter-concourse transit system, but its another interesting hypothesis.


I really honestly don't think the FAA would allow that. That would be WAY too many flights (there is already too many as it is) and a disruption at ATL would cause even more chaos across the American airport system. At some point, the powers that be have to look at the situation and say "enough is enough".

Plus, how much more can ATL realistically expand? They seem increasingly landlocked.
 
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cvgComair
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Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:53 am

ADrum23 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

We actually discussed this during the ATL power outage back in December (see the Rest of Ohio 2017 thread for more info). Originally, I supported DL dehubbing CVG completely, but in the last few months, I have gone 180 and have been thinking DL made a mistake cutting back CVG as much as they have.

This thinking led me to believe that DL should build back up CVG into a 200-250 or so flight reliever hub for ATL (a bit smaller size wise than SLC). Yes, you have DTW to the north, but cvgComair pointed out that DTW (and MSP) doesn't necessarily serve the same traffic flows as ATL, and CVG would be a better location for a E/W reliever hub for ATL, as it is more centrally located and further inland from the Great Lakes, thus, less chance of weather problems. DL has 28 gates on Concourse B at CVG, which if you had eight flights per gate per day, that would be 224 flights per day. So essentially, if DL wanted a 200 flight reliever hub at CVG, they could do it with minimal investment since the infrastructure is virtually already there.

However, they have shown no signs of being interested in doing this, as they want to grow ATL as big as possible. Someday, that will come back to bite DL as I believe slot restrictions will inevitably be imposed at ATL if we continue to see things such as December's power outage.

Who knows if this recent growth by DL means they are committed to CVG long term or not. It will be interesting to see what happens when the lease expires in 2020 and it is time to design a new terminal.

What about the opposite scenario. If DL wanted to move everything possible that could flow through ATL, through ATL, how big could it get for them? 1200 daily departures? 150,000 daily seats? That would probably require a new runway, a new terminal, and a new inter-concourse transit system, but its another interesting hypothesis.

I really honestly don't think the FAA would allow that. That would be WAY too many flights (there is already too many as it is) and a disruption at ATL would cause even more chaos across the American airport system. At some point, the powers that be have to look at the situation and say "enough is enough".

Plus, how much more can ATL realistically expand? They seem increasingly landlocked.

I believe DL's peak number of departures from ATL was somewhere in the 1200's (if anyone has the exact peak number that would be great!), so they certainly can add more flights once more gates are added. If anything, the number of flights at ATL is probably going to stay pretty steady, with more A321's and B739's coming in, that will allow more passengers to flow thought ATL without more flights. I would disagree that it is too many flights, United and American combined operate the same number of flights out of ORD (528 + 498 = 1026, vs 1038 at ATL), which is a much less efficient airport.

For the 36# days that ATL ops run smooth, it is a very profitable and effective hub to connect a lot of passengers. That said, I rarely get through ATL without a (usually minor) delay (both inbound and outbound). I personally would love to see DL spread out traffic amongst SLC/CVG/MSP/DTW/RDU, but profits are going to be better with the ATL megahub.
Next: CVG-BOS (Delta Air Lines MD90), BOS-AMS (Delta Air Lines A333), AMS-CPH (KLM B738)
A319/320/332/333, B712/722/732/733/738/739/752/753/763/764/772/773/788, CRJ-100/2/7/9, ERJ-145/75, MD-88/90, S340
 
pezzy669
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:30 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:26 am

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:

For the 36# days that ATL ops run smooth, it is a very profitable and effective hub to connect a lot of passengers. That said, I rarely get through ATL without a (usually minor) delay (both inbound and outbound). I personally would love to see DL spread out traffic amongst SLC/CVG/MSP/DTW/RDU, but profits are going to be better with the ATL megahub.


^ This. ATL is my home airport and the efficiency in which that clock ticks is stunning and yes there are a handful of weather and other events that really wreck things but what airline has not had a meltdown in similar situations? I have done ~70 segments as an O&D Atlanta passenger over the past 6 years mainly on DL, and except for I think now 4 weather related delays I have not had any kind of issues flying in or out. 95% of the time I can be walking in from the curb and be at my gate in 15-20 minutes with Pre Check, my bags are always already joyriding around on the carousel before I even get to baggage claim (10-15 mins) and overall ATL is set up quite well for O&D passengers.
 
klm617
Posts: 2553
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:21 pm

pezzy669 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:


^ This. ATL is my home airport and the efficiency in which that clock ticks is stunning and yes there are a handful of weather and other events that really wreck things but what airline has not had a meltdown in similar situations? I have done ~70 segments as an O&D Atlanta passenger over the past 6 years mainly on DL, and except for I think now 4 weather related delays I have not had any kind of issues flying in or out. 95% of the time I can be walking in from the curb and be at my gate in 15-20 minutes with Pre Check, my bags are always already joyriding around on the carousel before I even get to baggage claim (10-15 mins) and overall ATL is set up quite well for O&D passengers.


While I agree with you it's probably great for an ATL originating passenger the same is not true for someone having to make a connection. Delta only cares about one thing in ATL getting planes off on time and if you are left stranded there so be it because you missed your flight because it's Delta's fault they really don't care.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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TransWorldOne
Posts: 199
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 12:13 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread 2018

Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:37 pm

klm617 wrote:
pezzy669 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:


^ This. ATL is my home airport and the efficiency in which that clock ticks is stunning and yes there are a handful of weather and other events that really wreck things but what airline has not had a meltdown in similar situations? I have done ~70 segments as an O&D Atlanta passenger over the past 6 years mainly on DL, and except for I think now 4 weather related delays I have not had any kind of issues flying in or out. 95% of the time I can be walking in from the curb and be at my gate in 15-20 minutes with Pre Check, my bags are always already joyriding around on the carousel before I even get to baggage claim (10-15 mins) and overall ATL is set up quite well for O&D passengers.


While I agree with you it's probably great for an ATL originating passenger the same is not true for someone having to make a connection. Delta only cares about one thing in ATL getting planes off on time and if you are left stranded there so be it because you missed your flight because it's Delta's fault they really don't care.


If DL held every flight for late arriving passengers, no flight would ever leave on time. It always stuns me how many people expect a plane to be held for them and then lose their **** if it's not.
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