Alaska announces 8 destinations to be served from PAE

SeaDoo · Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:39 pm

https://www.heraldnet.com/news/alaska-a ... s-tuesday/

SeaDoo · Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:39 pm

SeaDoo wrote:
https://www.heraldnet.com/news/alaska-airlines-to-announce-paine-field-destinations-tuesday/

Please correct to destinations

Passedv1 · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:13 pm

My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

Midwestindy · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:23 pm

Passedv1 wrote:
My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

PAE-CHS, wow that's a bold prediction, even with the obvious Boeing connection ....

SeaDoo · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:28 pm

Passedv1 wrote:
My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

I am excited to see the announcement tomorrow. Lots of predictions have been made for PDX. SFO would be interesting. I think United may have preempted that by announcing they were coming to PAE and serving SFO. OGG would be a popular destination. CHS would surprise me. I would guess the connections from SEA help make the CHS flight work. EWR would surprise me. LAX wouldn't.

Previously there had been lots of talk of GEG, but I never understood how that was a better choice than something like a Hawaii flight, LAS, or maybe some other sought after destination. I do understand it is much shorter, and then would cost less to run.

enilria · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:31 pm

Passedv1 wrote:
My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

Agreed on PDX, LAX, SFO. Why OGG and not HNL? I'd say HNL maybe; and LAS is obvious. Anything beyond those would just be to block other carriers with a loss-leader. I'd be surprised to see something like ORD.

aviationjunky · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:37 pm

The article says the terminal is already at capacity with the 15 daily flights. Regardless of the size of the airport and it being so small, if 2 of the largest airlines in the US maxed out the capacity of the airport before it was even finished being constructed, doesn't that give the owners an idea that maybe they should look into a "Phase 2" expansion with at least one additional gate? Does anyone know if that is an option? I'm trying to remember the original post about them announcing the terminal, but I cant remember if the terminal takes up all the space available, or if there is additional land to build on.

Prost · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:38 pm

Is there the ability to expand the terminal? My guess is they could easily handle 10-12 gates.

BoeingGuy · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:41 pm

enilria wrote:
Passedv1 wrote:
My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

Agreed on PDX, LAX, SFO. Why OGG and not HNL? I'd say HNL maybe; and LAS is obvious. Anything beyond those would just be to block other carriers with a loss-leader. I'd be surprised to see something like ORD.

Remember that AS serves OGG from BLI, but no longer HNL. That's probably the basis of that prediction.

I can understand why someone would suggest PAE-CHS, but that's always an A.net fallacy. Just because company XX has a plant in ABC and a plant in QRS doesn't mean there is an airplane full of people flying between the two cities each day. Further, not necessarily everyone who works on the 787 program lives near PAE. Many Boeing pilots live in Seattle or south or east, for example.

I'd like to see PAE-SJC or SNA personally as a nice convenience. Doesn't mean they are viable though.

DaufuskieGuy · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:54 pm

Passedv1 wrote:
My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

pae chs in addition to sea chs or in place of it? hard to see both

Prost · Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:58 pm

AS needs to make certain they don’t erode their SEA hub too much. The fact that PAE is only 2 Gates helps a lot, but if it were to expand much more, it might impact their SEA flows.

ERJ170 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:01 am

I would assume that PAE route would be used to supplement AS highest frequency SEA routes... so that where I would look first... SFO, LAX, SAN, ???

deltal1011man · Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:08 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
enilria wrote:
Passedv1 wrote:
My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

Agreed on PDX, LAX, SFO. Why OGG and not HNL? I'd say HNL maybe; and LAS is obvious. Anything beyond those would just be to block other carriers with a loss-leader. I'd be surprised to see something like ORD.

Remember that AS serves OGG from BLI, but no longer HNL. That's probably the basis of that prediction.

I can understand why someone would suggest PAE-CHS, but that's always an A.net fallacy. Just because company XX has a plant in ABC and a plant in QRS doesn't mean there is an airplane full of people flying between the two cities each day. Further, not necessarily everyone who works on the 787 program lives near PAE. Many Boeing pilots live in Seattle or south or east, for example.

I'd like to see PAE-SJC or SNA personally as a nice convenience. Doesn't mean they are viable though.

This plus PAE-CHS would likely hurt SEA-CHS.

My guess is PAE-PDX/LAX/SFO and maybe something like LAS/SJC

jubguy3 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:09 am

Passedv1 wrote:
My predictions

PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO
PAE-OGG
PAE-CHS
PAE-EWR
PAE-LAX

Is CHS an error? What did you mean to say?

wedgetail737 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:17 am

I don't think there will be that many destinations. But I do think it will be PAE-PDX, PAE-LAX, PAE-GEG and maybe PAE-SFO and PAE-HI.

Overthecascades · Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:52 am

AS probably only want to fly to its frequent destinations which they have at SEA. CHS sounds logical at the beginning but AS only flies there once a day. Moving to PAE will hurt SEA. So no. It’ll be the usual suspects in CA, plus GEG, PDX maybe BOI.

wedgetail737 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:56 am

It wouldn't surprise me if there's even a nonstop to SEA from PAE for connections and people who do not want to drive.

BoeingGuy · Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:04 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if there's even a nonstop to SEA from PAE for connections and people who do not want to drive.

That would be interesting. I live very close to PAE and don't drive and park at SEA. Parking is expensive at SEA. I'm too cheap to pay it. I take public transportation there.

Flying out of PAE would be nice. What's not so nice is the sound of a jet engine spooling up for takeoff at 10pm last night, shattering a nice quiet Mukilteo evening.

admanager · Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:07 am

Overthecascades wrote:
AS probably only want to fly to its frequent destinations which they have at SEA. CHS sounds logical at the beginning but AS only flies there once a day. Moving to PAE will hurt SEA. So no. It’ll be the usual suspects in CA, plus GEG, PDX maybe BOI.

CHS is only 4 weekly not even daily. As regular user of this route I can tell you the back of the plane is filled with tourists making connections in SEA to other destinations. The front of the plane may be filled with Boeing employees (I can't prove or disprove that) but PAE on its own couldn't support a CRJ.

gunsontheroof · Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:51 am

PAE-CHS isn't happening for reasons other members have already detailed. PAE-SEA would require a robust market of passengers with cash to burn and a religious aversion to King County. Given the cap on flights per day, it would also be a waste of plane.

Predictions:
PAE-PDX
PAE-LAS
PAE-GEG
PAE-SFO
PAE-PHX

SeaDoo · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:15 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if there's even a nonstop to SEA from PAE for connections and people who do not want to drive.

That would surprise me, but I would be happy to be proved wrong and happy if it was a success for Alaska.

wedgetail737 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:22 am

gunsontheroof wrote:
PAE-CHS isn't happening for reasons other members have already detailed. PAE-SEA would require a robust market of passengers with cash to burn and a religious aversion to King County. Given the cap on flights per day, it would also be a waste of plane.

Predictions:
PAE-PDX
PAE-LAS
PAE-GEG
PAE-SFO
PAE-PHX

You just never know in this industry. PAE-SEA would be similar to OAK-SFO in the past. Both UA and CO did that for a while. And I don't necessarily mean it would be a 737. It could be a Q400.

I think PAE-LAX is a contender. But then again, I thought BLI-LAX was a contender. In any case, I'm pretty excited about the prospects.

jbmitt · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:38 am

Why not a flight from ANC? They have plenty of frequency on that route.

drdisque · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:40 am

They aren't going to erode their SEA base. Everywhere they fly from PAE will be a large AS station. I also don't think they're interested in serving exclusively local-to-local traffic from PAE (ie LAS or Hawaii)

My guesses:
PAE-PDX
PAE-SFO or SJC
PAE-LAX

RWA380 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:40 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:
PAE-CHS isn't happening for reasons other members have already detailed. PAE-SEA would require a robust market of passengers with cash to burn and a religious aversion to King County. Given the cap on flights per day, it would also be a waste of plane.

Predictions:
PAE-PDX
PAE-LAS
PAE-GEG
PAE-SFO
PAE-PHX

You just never know in this industry. PAE-SEA would be similar to OAK-SFO in the past. Both UA and CO did that for a while. And I don't necessarily mean it would be a 737. It could be a Q400.

I think PAE-LAX is a contender. But then again, I thought BLI-LAX was a contender. In any case, I'm pretty excited about the prospects.

IIRC, AS wants to use a mix of E-175's & 737's at PAE. I think the city list is fairly spot on, there will be PDX, LAX & SFO (all AS hubs) & likely GEG, I wouldn't expect too much at first until AS gets the feel of the market. I'd be surprised if there was PAE-SEA-PAE, but with the traffic a peak time flight may work & a good short RON from SEA.

32andBelow · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:44 am

jbmitt wrote:
Why not a flight from ANC? They have plenty of frequency on that route.

Most anchorage people are looking for connections.

Newbiepilot · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:49 am

I predict LAX, LAS, PDX, SFO/SJC. Possibly ANC/PHX/SAN/OGG/HNL

Chugach · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:00 am

32andBelow wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
Why not a flight from ANC? They have plenty of frequency on that route.

Most anchorage people are looking for connections.

Seattle is also the biggest O&D market by far from ANC. I wouldn’t be too surprised with a PAE-ANC red eye turn but I think the California routes plus PDX/GEG are most likely.

BoeingGuy · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:06 am

admanager wrote:
Overthecascades wrote:
AS probably only want to fly to its frequent destinations which they have at SEA. CHS sounds logical at the beginning but AS only flies there once a day. Moving to PAE will hurt SEA. So no. It’ll be the usual suspects in CA, plus GEG, PDX maybe BOI.

CHS is only 4 weekly not even daily. As regular user of this route I can tell you the back of the plane is filled with tourists making connections in SEA to other destinations. The front of the plane may be filled with Boeing employees (I can't prove or disprove that) but PAE on its own couldn't support a CRJ.

Boeing’s policy is that employees travel coach on business travel in the US. There may be exceptions for some executives, but not an entire First Class on a flight. My guess is that zero people up front were on Boeing travel.

SANFan · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:10 am

We went through such silly predictions back months ago when the Paine service was first announced by AAG and UA. Doesn't look like most guesses are any more thoughtful than they were last time.

I guess I can play the game too, so here are my 10 well-thought-out guesses:
PAE-BZN
PAE-DAL
PAE-SBP
PAE-STL
PAE-LIH
PAE-HDN
PAE-MSY
PAE-MFR
PAE-OKC
PAE-IND

I'm glad to hear that we will finally learn the cities to be served from Everett tomorrow!

bb

jetmechanicdave · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:13 am

SeaDoo wrote:
SeaDoo wrote:
https://www.heraldnet.com/news/alaska-airlines-to-announce-paine-field-destinations-tuesday/

Please correct to destinations

fixed, thanks man

loisencroach · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:15 am

Anybody heard how it will be marketed? Seattle/Everett.....just Everett.....Seattle-Paine....

flyfresno · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:26 am

SANFan wrote:
We went through such silly predictions back months ago when the Paine service was first announced by AAG and UA. Doesn't look like most guesses are any more thoughtful than they were last time.

I guess I can play the game too, so here are my 10 well-thought-out guesses:
PAE-BZN
PAE-DAL
PAE-SBP
PAE-STL
PAE-LIH
PAE-HDN
PAE-MSY
PAE-MFR
PAE-OKC
PAE-IND

I'm glad to hear that we will finally learn the cities to be served from Everett tomorrow!

bb

You forgot FAT!

jubguy3 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:35 am

flyfresno wrote:
SANFan wrote:
We went through such silly predictions back months ago when the Paine service was first announced by AAG and UA. Doesn't look like most guesses are any more thoughtful than they were last time.

I guess I can play the game too, so here are my 10 well-thought-out guesses:
PAE-BZN
PAE-DAL
PAE-SBP
PAE-STL
PAE-LIH
PAE-HDN
PAE-MSY
PAE-MFR
PAE-OKC
PAE-IND

I'm glad to hear that we will finally learn the cities to be served from Everett tomorrow!

bb

You forgot FAT!

Yay, provincialism!

Chugach · Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:41 am

SANFan wrote:
We went through such silly predictions back months ago when the Paine service was first announced by AAG and UA. Doesn't look like most guesses are any more thoughtful than they were last time.

I guess I can play the game too, so here are my 10 well-thought-out guesses:
PAE-BZN
PAE-DAL
PAE-SBP
PAE-STL
PAE-LIH
PAE-HDN
PAE-MSY
PAE-MFR
PAE-OKC
PAE-IND

I'm glad to hear that we will finally learn the cities to be served from Everett tomorrow!

bb

PAE-ADK

gunsontheroof · Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:07 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:
PAE-CHS isn't happening for reasons other members have already detailed. PAE-SEA would require a robust market of passengers with cash to burn and a religious aversion to King County. Given the cap on flights per day, it would also be a waste of plane.

Predictions:
PAE-PDX
PAE-LAS
PAE-GEG
PAE-SFO
PAE-PHX

You just never know in this industry. PAE-SEA would be similar to OAK-SFO in the past. Both UA and CO did that for a while. And I don't necessarily mean it would be a 737. It could be a Q400.

I think PAE-LAX is a contender. But then again, I thought BLI-LAX was a contender. In any case, I'm pretty excited about the prospects.

PAE-LAX wouldn't surprise me. I left it off this initial list because I suspect that AS is going to hit SFO-LAX hard out of the gate and might run a connection (same plane?) through SFO until they get some idea of how the PAE market is shaping up. Regional markets and sun/fun destinations strike me as the starting point, but there are certainly cases to be made elsewhere. I won't be surprised if we're discussing a push for more PAE flights in 2019 because AS, UA or others see a case for SAN, BOI, SLC or even ORD or OGG/HNL. It will be interesting to see how it develops.

RWA380 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:11 am

SANFan wrote:
We went through such silly predictions back months ago when the Paine service was first announced by AAG and UA. Doesn't look like most guesses are any more thoughtful than they were last time.

I guess I can play the game too, so here are my 10 well-thought-out guesses:
PAE-BZN
PAE-DAL
PAE-SBP
PAE-STL
PAE-LIH
PAE-HDN
PAE-MSY
PAE-MFR
PAE-OKC
PAE-IND

I'm glad to hear that we will finally learn the cities to be served from Everett tomorrow!

bb

Hey B, I like your enthusiasm, those would be quite the adds to PAE indeed, however with AS starting just 9 flights a day at PAE, one is going to have to go, but which one? I too am excited about the announcement.

Who do you think will operate the E-175 routes, QX or OO? And will AS start flying to PAE with the 320's that have been rumored to be taking on North / South flying with AS or use a Boeing 737?

My solid bets are,

3 x daily PDX - E-175
2 x daily SFO - 737 or 320
2 x daily LAX - 737 or 320
2 x daily GEG - E-175

jetmatt777 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:20 am

I would bet on a few to PDX, a few to SFO, and a few to LAX. It needs to connect to the network as a whole.

dc10lover · Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:29 am

They should serve their top 2 or 3 markets. Los Angeles, San Francisco & Las Vegas. This would be best if they can get the slots.

jubguy3 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:59 am

dc10lover wrote:
They should serve their top 2 or 3 markets. Los Angeles, San Francisco & Las Vegas. This would be best if they can get the slots.

I agree. People are suggesting stuff like Indianapolis and Chicago. The routes we will see here will ultimately be routes with many daily flights like SFO, PDX, SAN, LAX, and LAS. They aren't going to move flights from their main hub over to PAE needlessly, and they aren't going to start routes that wouldn't work without Everett alone. PAE and SeaTac are 36 miles apart. This is only going to serve the busiest regional routes that AS already has from Seattle and can support O/D from Everett. None of this Oklahoma City, Fresno, JFK nonsense.

United has 6 slots a day for DEN and SFO, and Alaska might choose to either not complete with UA on these routes or try to run them out of Paine Field. I don't know, we will find out tomorrow.

SANFan · Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:05 pm

I seriously stick with the same predictions I made last time this was discussed. (Assuming 9 daily flights for AAG.)

PAE-PDX (2x, both EMJs)
PAE-GEG (EMJ)
PAE-SFO (2X, 1 EMJ, 1 737)
PAE-SJC (EMJ)
PAE-LAX (2X, 1 EMJ, 1 737)
PAE-SAN (EMJ)

This way, all lower-48 hubs and focus cities are connected (except SEA of course) + GEG, which seems like there would be enough traffic to support this station.

We should learn the 'winners' soon!

bb

SANFan · Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:09 pm

The announcement is out: 8 cities served by 13 daily flights!

Here's the link:
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2018-01- ... aine-Field

Service to
LAS
LAX
SNA
PHX
PDX
SAN
SFO
SJC

Freq and schedules out later in the year.

bb

khinstorff · Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:11 pm

SANFan wrote:
The announcement is out: 8 cities served by 13 daily flights!

Here's the link:
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2018-01- ... aine-Field

Service to
LAS
LAX
SNA
PHX
PDX
SAN
SFO
SJC

Wow, glad to see SNA made the cut. I’m surprised PHX is on the list.

SANFan · Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:16 pm

The only surprise to me is the number of flights (13!) I have no idea how all these are going to work in relation to UA's schedule but we'll find out later. (Gonna be 2 busy gates at PAE!)

Note that all cities served are in CA except PDX, PHX and LAS.

Nice!

bb

HPRamper · Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 pm

SANFan wrote:
The only surprise to me is the number of flights (13!) I have no idea how all these are going to work in relation to UA's schedule but we'll find out later. (Gonna be 2 busy gates at PAE!)

Note that all cities served are in CA except PDX and LAS.

Nice!

bb

I agree - if I'd guessed at 13 flights I might have guessed at more destinations. I'm still a little surprised at PHX and SNA over GEG but nothing earthshaking. Frequencies of course won't be too difficult to guess at.

BENAir01 · Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:19 pm

Yay! Congrats PAE and AS!
Now here’s the new question: will PDX be 5x a day and all the others once a day or will the extra frequency’s be split between the destinations?
I’m guessing:
PDX 3x/day
LAX 3x
SFO 2x
LAS 1x
PHX 1x
SNA 1x
SJC 1x
SAN 1x

SANFan · Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:38 pm

BENAir01 wrote:
Yay! Congrats PAE and AS!
Now here’s the new question: will PDX be 5x a day and all the others once a day or will the extra frequency’s be split between the destinations?
I’m guessing:
PDX 3x/day
LAX 3x
SFO 2x
LAS 1x
PHX 1x
SNA 1x
SJC 1x
SAN 1x

The frequencies will be very dependent on the a/c used. With EMJs, 737s and AirBi, I'm not even guessing any more.

If UA sticks with 6 daily departures and AS remains at 13, that's real close to 10 departures per gate split among 2 cx which means real tight coordinated scheduling between the two cx. (It's hard enough for a single carrier, such as WN, to work 10 flights thru 1 gate but for 2 independent cx to manage it?...) I really wonder if the 2 cx will be able to stay with these numbers. Or perhaps the design of the airport terminal will be changed?

With the start of service months away, I wouldn't be too surprised if there are 'adjustments'. In any case, It's going to be tough to wait months to see the flights begin!

bb

FSDan · Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

SANFan wrote:
The announcement is out: 8 cities served by 13 daily flights!

Here's the link:
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2018-01- ... aine-Field

Service to
LAS
LAX
SNA
PHX
PDX
SAN
SFO
SJC

Freq and schedules out later in the year.

bb

These routes make sense. Basically all the major AS hubs and focus cities down the West Coast, plus SNA (where they do some point-to-point service) and then the major leisure destinations of LAS and PHX.

SANFan · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:09 pm

FSDan wrote:
These routes make sense. Basically all the major AS hubs and focus cities down the West Coast, plus SNA (where they do some point-to-point service) and then the major leisure destinations of LAS and PHX.

I wonder if AAG will have to drop something at SNA in order to start this new PAE-route? (Or does AAG or the airport have unused slots available?)

I would expect SNA-PAE would see a single daily EMJ r/t. But that slot has to come from somewhere.

Yes, it seems like AAG is prolly going after mostly business traffic but also, with LAS and even SNA, some leisure travelers as well. (And there are certainly some warm-weather and beach destinations to appeal to winter flyers.) It does seem like a pretty nicely balanced route map selected for Everett and I'm sure AAG will easily be able to adjust frequencies and capacity amongst these destinations as necessary.

bb

amcnd · Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:10 pm

Any equipment guesses??

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