Ethiopian Airlines is adding a fourth US destination in June 2018, with the CEO on record stating that they are comparing Houston and Chicago.

Ethiopian, which styles itself as the “New Spirit of Africa”, would introduce new long-haul flight to Chicago, or Houston in the US in June 2018. “We are still comparing Houston and Chicago they are almost comparable in terms of giving us connectivity to the rest of North America,” the CEO said.

https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/art ... six-months

Besides YYZ, EWR, and IAD, how big is the ADD-ORD/IAH market? If they do launch ORD or IAH, it will no doubt be with an stop, maybe DUB for example.

Otherwise, how is ADD-DUB-LAX doing? I've heard that it's not doing to well, even now considering EI is on the route (and the fact that they seem like there doing better than ET on it).

Neither Houston or Chicago have sizable Ethiopian communities or business ties to ADD themselves so this will live and die by connections. Houston has a lot of oil traffic to Africa, but its mainly to Nigeria not so much Ethiopia.

Based on that, I would think Chicago would be the best option because its a shorter flight and offers more domestic connections. That said, I hope they pick Houston...

As much as I would like to say IAH, if I were a betting man, my money would be on ORD.

I wonder if they are looking at ORD/IAH-West African Destination-ADD, or ORD/IAH-Europe-ADD? Hopefully the former, although if they got 5th freedom rights on a route like IAH-FCO they could do IAH-FCO-ADD and serve a unique market. That would be more difficult to do from ORD, as Europe is already very well covered.

Who else remembers around November that the CEO made an announcement that ORD was the next US destination. It was a local article in the ET press.

jcwr56 wrote:

Who else remembers around November that the CEO made an announcement that ORD was the next US destination. It was a local article in the ET press.

I remember this, just don't have a link.

Also, could be interesting where this goes...

nmdrdh787 wrote:

jcwr56 wrote:

Who else remembers around November that the CEO made an announcement that ORD was the next US destination. It was a local article in the ET press.

I remember this, just don't have a link.

Also, could be interesting where this goes...

https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/art ... ly-chicago
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1378203&p=19946001&hilit=et+ord#p19946001

Your memory isn't failing you...but apparently ET hasn't even communicated to ORD their intention to start flying there, so maybe they backed out...

FSDan wrote:

I wonder if they are looking at ORD/IAH-West African Destination-ADD, or ORD/IAH-Europe-ADD? Hopefully the former, although if they got 5th freedom rights on a route like IAH-FCO they could do IAH-FCO-ADD and serve a unique market. That would be more difficult to do from ORD, as Europe is already very well covered.

IAH-LOS-ADD anyone? Maybe they could recapture some of the oil traffic from DL....

NichCage wrote:

Besides YYZ, EWR, and IAD, how big is the ADD-ORD/IAH market? If they do launch ORD or IAH, it will no doubt be with an stop, maybe DUB for example.

Otherwise, how is ADD-DUB-LAX doing? I've heard that it's not doing to well, even now considering EI is on the route (and the fact that they seem like there doing better than ET on it).

Neither IAH or ORD have a big market out of ADD. Only IAD does for that matter, with EWR being mainly fed out of West Africa.

Regarding ADD-DUB-LAX, while EI has taken the LAX route up, ET has maintained the service and remains competitive. Granted, it does not any feed at DUB, but it's still increasing frequency from 3x per week to 4x per week as of June. It has also adjusted the schedule to leave DUB at 0730 instead of 0600 so that it's more appealing to passengers. Out of IAD, EWR and YYZ, this is the north Atlantic route that has not seen an upgauge of aircraft throughout its entire existence, with all others seeing the 77L/77Ws operating at times.

FSDan wrote:

I wonder if they are looking at ORD/IAH-West African Destination-ADD, or ORD/IAH-Europe-ADD? Hopefully the former, although if they got 5th freedom rights on a route like IAH-FCO they could do IAH-FCO-ADD and serve a unique market. That would be more difficult to do from ORD, as Europe is already very well covered.

Ethiopian served IAD and at some point EWR via FCO and they were never able to get 5th freedom ex-FCO. Not only that, it's been a challenge for years for ET to get additional landing rights to FCO. Only this year will we see their weekly frequency increase from daily to 9x per week.

jcwr56 wrote:

Who else remembers around November that the CEO made an announcement that ORD was the next US destination. It was a local article in the ET press.

Ethiopian is quick to adjust to new realities, and unless you see official announcements on new service, they are going to adjust until such time. We have seen adjustments even after announcements come up.

There was an article a while back that quoted the ET CEO indicating that future expansion into the US will be via West Africa. If this holds true, then I'd suspect that we will see the flight operate via Lome, ET's west African hub. But wait ...

A new development last week was that the government of Ivory Coast has granted ET rights for 4x per week service from Abidjan to Washington DC, New York or a third US gateway, to be fed by Air Cote d'Ivoire. This service is to begin in May 2018. So this throws us off even more!

My thoughts/wish list/speculation is as follows:
- United operated into Lagos out of IAH until recently, with oil price crashes making the route unprofitable. UA didn't have the feed it needed ex-LOS. UA has higher costs than ET. ET could perhaps make ADD-LFW-IAH route work, with its subsidiary Asky feeding it at LFW from LOS and a multitude of central African oil rich countries. UA could take care of onward passengers out of IAH.
- ORD may be inferior to IAH in that connection points out of ORD can already be served from EWR and IAD by UA. YYZ is also a connection point to a slew of American cities, and can be a competitor to ORD> IAH could be seen as more superior due to the oil industry traffic
- With the above, ET could switch its New York service to operate via Abidjan, where a previous link existed and feeds could be had via Air Cote d'Ivoire.
- Kenya Airways is going daily nonstop to New York, and we have yet to see/determine how ET will respond to this. Will it be skeptical about KQ's success or will it make New York a route it will also operate as ADD-DUB-NYC-ADD?

IAH LOS ADD should do well if they could get traffic rights on IAH LOS

True, the bulk of Ethiopian-Americans are in the DC and New York metro areas. Wouldn't ORD would seem to be a better place for connection feeder traffic, for example to the Ethiopian and Somali communities in Minneapolis, or even places like metro Toronto? (I know they already fly to YYZ but flights are usually cheaper with a stop than nonstop).

alan3 wrote:

True, the bulk of Ethiopian-Americans are in the DC and New York metro areas. Wouldn't ORD would seem to be a better place for connection feeder traffic, for example to the Ethiopian and Somali communities in Minneapolis, or even places like metro Toronto? (I know they already fly to YYZ but flights are usually cheaper with a stop than nonstop).

ET's services at IAD, EWR and YYZ are well positioned to connect to eastern US, midwest and the northern US as well as the West.

Re: YYZ, why would ET undercut its own service? BTW it's increasing service to YYZ to 5x per week as of this summer.

berari wrote:

alan3 wrote:

True, the bulk of Ethiopian-Americans are in the DC and New York metro areas. Wouldn't ORD would seem to be a better place for connection feeder traffic, for example to the Ethiopian and Somali communities in Minneapolis, or even places like metro Toronto? (I know they already fly to YYZ but flights are usually cheaper with a stop than nonstop).

ET's services at IAD, EWR and YYZ are well positioned to connect to eastern US, midwest and the northern US as well as the West.

Re: YYZ, why would ET undercut its own service? BTW it's increasing service to YYZ to 5x per week as of this summer.

So what markets would they be seeking to capture by flying to IAH? (given that they already fly to LAX). Oil business, Latam connections? Texas doesn't have a large Ethiopian population.

alan3 wrote:

berari wrote:

alan3 wrote:

True, the bulk of Ethiopian-Americans are in the DC and New York metro areas. Wouldn't ORD would seem to be a better place for connection feeder traffic, for example to the Ethiopian and Somali communities in Minneapolis, or even places like metro Toronto? (I know they already fly to YYZ but flights are usually cheaper with a stop than nonstop).

ET's services at IAD, EWR and YYZ are well positioned to connect to eastern US, midwest and the northern US as well as the West.

Re: YYZ, why would ET undercut its own service? BTW it's increasing service to YYZ to 5x per week as of this summer.

So what markets would they be seeking to capture by flying to IAH? (given that they already fly to LAX). Oil business, Latam connections? Texas doesn't have a large Ethiopian population.

Dallas does have the 5th largest Ethiopian populace in the US, but that’s not really a market worth going after.

It would be oil traffic ET would want from IAH.

I think the easiest way to look at it is that if ET routes this through Europe, ORD is better. If they route it through LFW, IAH is better. Reasons being oil ties to west Africa.

alan3 wrote:

berari wrote:

alan3 wrote:

True, the bulk of Ethiopian-Americans are in the DC and New York metro areas. Wouldn't ORD would seem to be a better place for connection feeder traffic, for example to the Ethiopian and Somali communities in Minneapolis, or even places like metro Toronto? (I know they already fly to YYZ but flights are usually cheaper with a stop than nonstop).

ET's services at IAD, EWR and YYZ are well positioned to connect to eastern US, midwest and the northern US as well as the West.

Re: YYZ, why would ET undercut its own service? BTW it's increasing service to YYZ to 5x per week as of this summer.

So what markets would they be seeking to capture by flying to IAH? (given that they already fly to LAX). Oil business, Latam connections? Texas doesn't have a large Ethiopian population.

Oil Business. But I also found this article below that states:

African immigrants to the U.S. are more likely to settle in the South (39%) or the Northeast (25%), than in the Midwest (18%) or West (17%), while the largest numbers of African immigrants are found in Texas, New York, California, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Virginia. Each of these states is home to at least 100,000 foreign-born Africans.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... ly-climbs/

Well in terms of Ethiopian American population, the highest concentrations are in DC, LA, Atlanta, Seattle, and Dallas. The first 2 are advantageous to ET as they are Star hubs. ET's missing link is a Central U.S. route which I personally think is better achieved by Chicago due to its closer distance to Addis and potential for a larger local market

iadadd wrote:

Well in terms of Ethiopian American population, the highest concentrations are in DC, LA, Atlanta, Seattle, and Dallas. The first 2 are advantageous to ET as they are Star hubs. ET's missing link is a Central U.S. route which I personally think is better achieved by Chicago due to its closer distance to Addis and potential for a larger local market

Replace LA with Minneapolis and you’d have it. LA is no loner in the top 5.

berari wrote:

alan3 wrote:

ET's services at IAD, EWR and YYZ are well positioned to connect to eastern US, midwest and the northern US as well as the West.

Re: YYZ, why would ET undercut its own service? BTW it's increasing service to YYZ to 5x per week as of this summer.

Agreed. I think the fact they have increased service to YYZ means they have plenty of coverage on the upper Midwest.

They both have massive United hubs so that's a push.

I also think that adding IAH would give them a much needed arm connecting them to South America, central America, and Mexico. Plus they would no doubt fill the front of the plane better with Oil money out of IAH. I Really can't think of any reason to start from ORD. I think this is a foregone conclusion.

Always ironic how US posters - in a country renowned for hubs - forget it'll be mainly about connections across Africa.

Ethiopian has filed schedules for its flights out of Abidjan: its to Newark! All I see is frequency at 3x per week so far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LAXdude1023 wrote:

I think the easiest way to look at it is that if ET routes this through Europe, ORD is better. If they route it through LFW, IAH is better. Reasons being oil ties to west Africa.

Strongly agree, but I think oil-related travel to WAF would be minimal via ADD. Not only are WAF barrels increasingly less-important to US-based energy enterprises thanks to domestic shale, but for many of the global refiners who do rely and trade with WAF, those entities overseeing Africa tend to be based in Europe or the Middle East today, not Houston. Not to mention, if one is to use a resources-related argument for supporting business travel: Ethopia and East Africa's primary strengths are agricultural and metals-based...something that would suit more counterparties and businesses in the Midwest and Northern parts of the US. In that case, ORD or JFK/EWR would make more sense.

berari wrote:

Ethiopian has filed schedules for its flights out of Abidjan: its to Newark! All I see is frequency at 3x per week so far.

Makes sense to me....

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Neither Houston or Chicago have sizable Ethiopian communities or business ties to ADD themselves so this will live and die by connections. Houston has a lot of oil traffic to Africa, but its mainly to Nigeria not so much Ethiopia.

Based on that, I would think Chicago would be the best option because its a shorter flight and offers more domestic connections. That said, I hope they pick Houston...

UA used to fly IAH-LOS, but cut that route. Ethiopian would have the advantage of both connecting *A traffic at IAH and then to various African destinations at LFW using ASKY Airlines. That route could be 3 or 4 times weekly IAH-LFW-IAH on a B788.

While I would really enjoy having Ethiopian at IAH I will not count on it until I see them at D.

None of this is enough to drive a flight, but I wanted to point out the greater Houston Ethiopian population is more than what folks might initially think:
That said do realise Houston does have a healthy Ethiopian diaspora. In 2003 it was estimated at ~5,000 by the local Ethiopian Orthodox church leaders. During the "Lucy" protests in 2014 it was noted at well over 6,000. And anecdotally, in the Bellaire, Gulfton, and Sharpstown areas there are new Ethiopian businesses which are opening all over. Just recently, four new restaurants, two new grocery stores, and several other Ethiopian owned businesses including a tow shop/mechanic and medical clinic have popped up. Older established ones have been around for years in the Southwest area. The running local joke is the Bellaire Starbucks (at Rice Blvd) is the Ethiopian Embassy (yes I know embassies are in capitals-just a local joke one hears in Bellaire). Many of them drive taxis, and the parking lot looks yellow in the afternoon when they all come in for a break LOL. Southwest Houston in general is the main historic area for the community and where four Ethiopian churches operate. Of note, many in the area lump in Eritreans with Ethiopians when counting. But again these flights would be driven mainly by connections similar to Air New Zealand building on the two Star hubs.

berari wrote:

alan3 wrote:

True, the bulk of Ethiopian-Americans are in the DC and New York metro areas. Wouldn't ORD would seem to be a better place for connection feeder traffic, for example to the Ethiopian and Somali communities in Minneapolis, or even places like metro Toronto? (I know they already fly to YYZ but flights are usually cheaper with a stop than nonstop).

ET's services at IAD, EWR and YYZ are well positioned to connect to eastern US, midwest and the northern US as well as the West.

Re: YYZ, why would ET undercut its own service? BTW it's increasing service to YYZ to 5x per week as of this summer.

It is already 5x weekly.

berari wrote:

Ethiopian has filed schedules for its flights out of Abidjan: its to Newark! All I see is frequency at 3x per week so far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Does anyone know the schedule and start date for Abidjan-Newark service?

Melb94 wrote:

berari wrote:

Ethiopian has filed schedules for its flights out of Abidjan: its to Newark! All I see is frequency at 3x per week so far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Does anyone know the schedule and start date for Abidjan-Newark service?

I read EWR-ABJ begins sometime in May 4x weekly. Haven't seen a schedule yet though anywhere. Also EWR-LFW increases to 5x weekly.

Keeping 4x weekly ADD-LFW-EWR and adding a 3x weekly ADD-ABJ-EWR sounds the most realistic, it makes Newark a daily destination and I don't see ET operating more than that to the New York Market as of now. In the future (maybe 5-10 years), I see ET switching these services to JFK as they seems to be primarily focused on the NY-West Africa Market which is primarily situated in the Queens area of NYC. I can also see ET starting an EWR-ADD nonstop that arrives during its main morning bank to better serve connecting opportunities in Addis.

Slightly off topic , does anyone know how ET do with lift to Africa from Dublin ??? ...the Cape Town connection is brilliant , met lots of Dubliners in Cape Town who love the ET option

iadadd wrote:

Keeping 4x weekly ADD-LFW-EWR and adding a 3x weekly ADD-ABJ-EWR sounds the most realistic, it makes Newark a daily destination and I don't see ET operating more than that to the New York Market as of now. In the future (maybe 5-10 years), I see ET switching these services to JFK as they seems to be primarily focused on the NY-West Africa Market which is primarily situated in the Queens area of NYC. I can also see ET starting an EWR-ADD nonstop that arrives during its main morning bank to better serve connecting opportunities in Addis.

And this is exactly what's happening according to updated schedules:

4x per week ADD-LFW-EWR
3x per week ADD-ABJ-EWR

ET initially wanted to fly into JFK but couldn't secure slots that work with its requirements. We know there's an added advantage with connectivity at EWR.

The on time performance on the flights to EWR have been abysmal, especially on the return leg with flights out of EWR departing late and missing connections at LFW and ultimately arriving late at ADD.

NichCage wrote:

Besides YYZ, EWR, and IAD, how big is the ADD-ORD/IAH market? If they do launch ORD or IAH, it will no doubt be with an stop, maybe DUB for example.

Otherwise, how is ADD-DUB-LAX doing? I've heard that it's not doing to well, even now considering EI is on the route (and the fact that they seem like there doing better than ET on it).

Here's what Ethiopian has to say about Dublin:

Ethiopian Airlines says Irish passenger uplift figures are up 37pc and load factors have increased by 26pc as it named its one millionth passenger out of Dublin.

Meseret Tekalign said: “Ethiopian’s steady growth since entering into the Irish market in June 2015 can be attributed to offering more choice of routes to Irish travellers with fares that are consistently competitive.”

Ms Tekalign, who succeeded Michael Yohannes as Ireland Country Manager in September 2017, added: “We knew coming into a market that had little awareness of Ethiopian would have its challenges however, we’ve worked hard at overcoming them and we’re now seeing positive results.

“With passenger numbers increasing month on month we added a fourth service in June 2017 to our Dublin to Los Angeles and Dublin to Addis Ababa routes and that increase in schedule means we are now attracting both leisure and business traffic.”

http://www.travelextra.ie/ethiopian-cel ... d-factors/

We have seen a huge growth of Ethiopians and Eritreans in the Midwest in the last three years. I work with them a lot and they tend to go back home once a year at least and it seems to me that they always go through Europe to fly back and forth.

iadadd wrote:

Keeping 4x weekly ADD-LFW-EWR and adding a 3x weekly ADD-ABJ-EWR sounds the most realistic, it makes Newark a daily destination and I don't see ET operating more than that to the New York Market as of now. In the future (maybe 5-10 years), I see ET switching these services to JFK as they seems to be primarily focused on the NY-West Africa Market which is primarily situated in the Queens area of NYC. I can also see ET starting an EWR-ADD nonstop that arrives during its main morning bank to better serve connecting opportunities in Addis.

No announcement anywhere but the new 3x weekly ABJ-EWR is available for booking beginning May 10, 2018. Newark is like you said now a daily destination for ET.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Neither Houston or Chicago have sizable Ethiopian communities or business ties to ADD themselves so this will live and die by connections. Houston has a lot of oil traffic to Africa, but its mainly to Nigeria not so much Ethiopia.

UA used to fly IAH-LOS, but cut that route. Ethiopian would have the advantage of both connecting *A traffic at IAH and then to various African destinations at LFW using ASKY Airlines. That route could be 3 or 4 times weekly IAH-LFW-IAH on a B788.

I think they would be better served by ADD-LOS-IAH if they can get rights from LOS. ADD-LFW-IAH from the perspective of a passenger in LOS would be competing with established and entrenched BA (LOS-LHR-IAH), EK (LOS-DXB-IAH), KL(LOS-AMS-IAH) and LH (LOS-FRA-IAH).

mapletux wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Neither Houston or Chicago have sizable Ethiopian communities or business ties to ADD themselves so this will live and die by connections. Houston has a lot of oil traffic to Africa, but its mainly to Nigeria not so much Ethiopia.

UA used to fly IAH-LOS, but cut that route. Ethiopian would have the advantage of both connecting *A traffic at IAH and then to various African destinations at LFW using ASKY Airlines. That route could be 3 or 4 times weekly IAH-LFW-IAH on a B788.

I think they would be better served by ADD-LOS-IAH if they can get rights from LOS. ADD-LFW-IAH from the perspective of a passenger in LOS would be competing with established and entrenched BA (LOS-LHR-IAH), EK (LOS-DXB-IAH), KL(LOS-AMS-IAH) and LH (LOS-FRA-IAH).

Iah-lfw-los/phc would be about 5hours faster than going through Europe. Ethiopian/Asky have a very large following in Nigeria (EAT is actually the largest foreign carrier in Nigeria, serving LOS, ABV, and ENU) so they would do fine...

usflyer msp wrote:

mapletux wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

UA used to fly IAH-LOS, but cut that route. Ethiopian would have the advantage of both connecting *A traffic at IAH and then to various African destinations at LFW using ASKY Airlines. That route could be 3 or 4 times weekly IAH-LFW-IAH on a B788.

I think they would be better served by ADD-LOS-IAH if they can get rights from LOS. ADD-LFW-IAH from the perspective of a passenger in LOS would be competing with established and entrenched BA (LOS-LHR-IAH), EK (LOS-DXB-IAH), KL(LOS-AMS-IAH) and LH (LOS-FRA-IAH).

Iah-lfw-los/phc would be about 5hours faster than going through Europe. Ethiopian/Asky have a very large following in Nigeria (EAT is actually the largest foreign carrier in Nigeria, serving LOS, ABV, and ENU) so they would do fine...

ET serves KAN and KAD as well.

There are rumours they want to start ORD & IAH via DUB with 5th freedom but a certain few airlines are objecting. If it does come to fruition hopefully it’s an ADD-DUB-IAH route, AA/EI/UA don’t seem to have much interest in starting a Texas route.

mapletux wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Neither Houston or Chicago have sizable Ethiopian communities or business ties to ADD themselves so this will live and die by connections. Houston has a lot of oil traffic to Africa, but its mainly to Nigeria not so much Ethiopia.

UA used to fly IAH-LOS, but cut that route. Ethiopian would have the advantage of both connecting *A traffic at IAH and then to various African destinations at LFW using ASKY Airlines. That route could be 3 or 4 times weekly IAH-LFW-IAH on a B788.

I think they would be better served by ADD-LOS-IAH if they can get rights from LOS. ADD-LFW-IAH from the perspective of a passenger in LOS would be competing with established and entrenched BA (LOS-LHR-IAH), EK (LOS-DXB-IAH), KL(LOS-AMS-IAH) and LH (LOS-FRA-IAH).

They could also serve via Heathrow or Frankfurt for that matter, or Paris. The reality is that it comes with either the authorization to operate with 5th freedom out of those cities, and the existence of enough traffic and feed at that station to make it work well. If you look at ET's model, it has a hub in LFW that allows it to funnel traffic from multiple parts of the region, and it is working well for it. Nigeria is not easy to get traffic into nor is it easy to operate in (check on their local carriers!) If ET does initiate ADD-LFW-IAH, it'd already be at an advantage over the other airlines in terms of distance traveled.

usflyer msp wrote:

mapletux wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

UA used to fly IAH-LOS, but cut that route. Ethiopian would have the advantage of both connecting *A traffic at IAH and then to various African destinations at LFW using ASKY Airlines. That route could be 3 or 4 times weekly IAH-LFW-IAH on a B788.

I think they would be better served by ADD-LOS-IAH if they can get rights from LOS. ADD-LFW-IAH from the perspective of a passenger in LOS would be competing with established and entrenched BA (LOS-LHR-IAH), EK (LOS-DXB-IAH), KL(LOS-AMS-IAH) and LH (LOS-FRA-IAH).

Iah-lfw-los/phc would be about 5hours faster than going through Europe. Ethiopian/Asky have a very large following in Nigeria (EAT is actually the largest foreign carrier in Nigeria, serving LOS, ABV, and ENU) so they would do fine...

Asky still operates a combination of 737-700 and Q400 in and out of Lagos once per day. And less than daily frequency in and out of Abuja with similar combination of aircraft. One would think that Nigeria's strong market would see KP sending in its largest 737-800 all the time but that is not the case. Granted ET does servce 5 destinations in Nigeria and seems to have maintained/added flights despite the downturn in the oil industry.

eicvd wrote:

There are rumours they want to start ORD & IAH via DUB with 5th freedom but a certain few airlines are objecting. If it does come to fruition hopefully it’s an ADD-DUB-IAH route, AA/EI/UA don’t seem to have much interest in starting a Texas route.

Where are these rumours circulating? I'd be surprised to see them pursuing ADD-DUB-IAH when ADD-LFW-IAH seems logical.

berari wrote:

mapletux wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

UA used to fly IAH-LOS, but cut that route. Ethiopian would have the advantage of both connecting *A traffic at IAH and then to various African destinations at LFW using ASKY Airlines. That route could be 3 or 4 times weekly IAH-LFW-IAH on a B788.

I think they would be better served by ADD-LOS-IAH if they can get rights from LOS. ADD-LFW-IAH from the perspective of a passenger in LOS would be competing with established and entrenched BA (LOS-LHR-IAH), EK (LOS-DXB-IAH), KL(LOS-AMS-IAH) and LH (LOS-FRA-IAH).

They could also serve via Heathrow or Frankfurt for that matter, or Paris. The reality is that it comes with either the authorization to operate with 5th freedom out of those cities, and the existence of enough traffic and feed at that station to make it work well. If you look at ET's model, it has a hub in LFW that allows it to funnel traffic from multiple parts of the region, and it is working well for it. Nigeria is not easy to get traffic into nor is it easy to operate in (check on their local carriers!) If ET does initiate ADD-LFW-IAH, it'd already be at an advantage over the other airlines in terms of distance traveled.

usflyer msp wrote:

mapletux wrote:

I think they would be better served by ADD-LOS-IAH if they can get rights from LOS. ADD-LFW-IAH from the perspective of a passenger in LOS would be competing with established and entrenched BA (LOS-LHR-IAH), EK (LOS-DXB-IAH), KL(LOS-AMS-IAH) and LH (LOS-FRA-IAH).

Iah-lfw-los/phc would be about 5hours faster than going through Europe. Ethiopian/Asky have a very large following in Nigeria (EAT is actually the largest foreign carrier in Nigeria, serving LOS, ABV, and ENU) so they would do fine...

Asky still operates a combination of 737-700 and Q400 in and out of Lagos once per day. And less than daily frequency in and out of Abuja with similar combination of aircraft. One would think that Nigeria's strong market would see KP sending in its largest 737-800 all the time but that is not the case. Granted ET does servce 5 destinations in Nigeria and seems to have maintained/added flights despite the downturn in the oil industry.

eicvd wrote:

Where are these rumours circulating? I'd be surprised to see them pursuing ADD-DUB-IAH when ADD-LFW-IAH seems logical.

Increasing LFW-ABV to daily as well as adding flights to ENU, KAD, KAN and PHC should provide a very substantial feed.

Houston has strong Ethiopian population, not as big as LA or NYC, there also other communities such as Sudanese, Somali, Eritrean, and etc. Though Chicago I am sure has also decent size, also so does MSP area.

Great circle route from IAH-ADD runs through MAD.

berari wrote:

Asky still operates a combination of 737-700 and Q400 in and out of Lagos once per day. And less than daily frequency in and out of Abuja with similar combination of aircraft. One would think that Nigeria's strong market would see KP sending in its largest 737-800 all the time but that is not the case. Granted ET does servce 5 destinations in Nigeria and seems to have maintained/added flights despite the downturn in the oil industry.

I get the impression that KP's following is much weaker in Anglophone Africa than Francophone and Lusophone Africa. ACC, LOS, and ABV see minimal capacity, JNB was a failure, and FNA and MLW have been on and off. Offering the quickest connections to North America via LFW (beside the DL and SA non-stops) would greatly help them more deeply penetrate the Anglophone markets...

eicvd wrote:

There are rumours they want to start ORD & IAH via DUB with 5th freedom but a certain few airlines are objecting. If it does come to fruition hopefully it’s an ADD-DUB-IAH route, AA/EI/UA don’t seem to have much interest in starting a Texas route.

Where are these rumours circulating? I'd be surprised to see them pursuing ADD-DUB-IAH when ADD-LFW-IAH seems logical.[/quote]
Not sure where exactly but a travel agent friend & fellow a.net member mentioned it to me & posted it on the Irish thread.

mapletux wrote:

Increasing LFW-ABV to daily as well as adding flights to ENU, KAD, KAN and PHC should provide a very substantial feed.

See below

usflyer msp wrote:

berari wrote:

Asky still operates a combination of 737-700 and Q400 in and out of Lagos once per day. And less than daily frequency in and out of Abuja with similar combination of aircraft. One would think that Nigeria's strong market would see KP sending in its largest 737-800 all the time but that is not the case. Granted ET does servce 5 destinations in Nigeria and seems to have maintained/added flights despite the downturn in the oil industry.

I get the impression that KP's following is much weaker in Anglophone Africa than Francophone and Lusophone Africa. ACC, LOS, and ABV see minimal capacity, JNB was a failure, and FNA and MLW have been on and off. Offering the quickest connections to North America via LFW (beside the DL and SA non-stops) would greatly help them more deeply penetrate the Anglophone markets...

I think it has also to do with traffic rights. Nigeria is no easy country to get new rights into, and while partly owned by ET, KP still operates as a separate entity and is seen as a threat to regional operators and startups. There remains strong protectionism even in the Francophone countries, with Senegal being a prime example that held out rights to KP for the longest time while it propped up its own airline.

LH658 wrote:

Houston has strong Ethiopian population, not as big as LA or NYC, there also other communities such as Sudanese, Somali, Eritrean, and etc. Though Chicago I am sure has also decent size, also so does MSP area.

ET does not solely pursue Ethiopian diaspora for its new services. 70% of its traffic at ADD is transit, and its service offerings are tied to connectivity and when it comes to the US, its ability to get feed from fellow Star Alliance partner UA. Even if the Ethiopian population in IAH is large, they remain with solid options to travel via Europe and the Middle East where you usually see deeply discounted fares to ADD. There is no allegiance by the Ethiopian diaspora to their home town airline.

If they upped their connections into India/Pakistan, they could serve a similar role as the Gulf carries with connecting the Subcontinent to points west. In that case ORD could make a lot of sense with the large Indian community there.

berari wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

berari wrote:

Asky still operates a combination of 737-700 and Q400 in and out of Lagos once per day. And less than daily frequency in and out of Abuja with similar combination of aircraft. One would think that Nigeria's strong market would see KP sending in its largest 737-800 all the time but that is not the case. Granted ET does servce 5 destinations in Nigeria and seems to have maintained/added flights despite the downturn in the oil industry.

I get the impression that KP's following is much weaker in Anglophone Africa than Francophone and Lusophone Africa. ACC, LOS, and ABV see minimal capacity, JNB was a failure, and FNA and MLW have been on and off. Offering the quickest connections to North America via LFW (beside the DL and SA non-stops) would greatly help them more deeply penetrate the Anglophone markets...

I think it has also to do with traffic rights. Nigeria is no easy country to get new rights into, and while partly owned by ET, KP still operates as a separate entity and is seen as a threat to regional operators and startups. There remains strong protectionism even in the Francophone countries, with Senegal being a prime example that held out rights to KP for the longest time while it propped up its own airline.

There probably is some truth to that about Nigeria but Ghana is very loose with traffic rights and still only sees DH4's (that they usually have to share with other destinations)

usflyer msp wrote:

berari wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

I get the impression that KP's following is much weaker in Anglophone Africa than Francophone and Lusophone Africa. ACC, LOS, and ABV see minimal capacity, JNB was a failure, and FNA and MLW have been on and off. Offering the quickest connections to North America via LFW (beside the DL and SA non-stops) would greatly help them more deeply penetrate the Anglophone markets...

I think it has also to do with traffic rights. Nigeria is no easy country to get new rights into, and while partly owned by ET, KP still operates as a separate entity and is seen as a threat to regional operators and startups. There remains strong protectionism even in the Francophone countries, with Senegal being a prime example that held out rights to KP for the longest time while it propped up its own airline.

There probably is some truth to that about Nigeria but Ghana is very loose with traffic rights and still only sees DH4's (that they usually have to share with other destinations)

Ghana has a population of 20 Million. Nigeria has 186 Million. Could it be related to available traffic?

LupineChemist wrote:

If they upped their connections into India/Pakistan, they could serve a similar role as the Gulf carries with connecting the Subcontinent to points west. In that case ORD could make a lot of sense with the large Indian community there.

Just because they have service to those destinations doesn't mean they should. Look at the distance and detour that'd be required for such service and determine what footing they'd have in terms of ability to compete.

I'm surprised in all these responses, no one has brought up that Ethiopian serves LAD, an airport with very limited slots. Though IAH is connected to LAD non-stop, those flights are extremely expensive. I know several energy business friends who fly IAH-IAD-ADD-LAD currently. If my memory serves me correctly, none of the European carriers have convenient connecting times at their respective hubs, usually the connection time is 12+ hours. Same for flights to South Africa, which does get some mining traffic from IAH. Were ET able to offer quick connections to southern Africa from Houston, it could boost the success of such a flight. The IAH-Africa oil business is not all about Nigeria.

berari wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

berari wrote:

I think it has also to do with traffic rights. Nigeria is no easy country to get new rights into, and while partly owned by ET, KP still operates as a separate entity and is seen as a threat to regional operators and startups. There remains strong protectionism even in the Francophone countries, with Senegal being a prime example that held out rights to KP for the longest time while it propped up its own airline.

There probably is some truth to that about Nigeria but Ghana is very loose with traffic rights and still only sees DH4's (that they usually have to share with other destinations)

Ghana has a population of 20 Million. Nigeria has 186 Million. Could it be related to available traffic?

I'm not so sure about that, Accra is still the 3rd largest city in West Africa (after Lagos and Abidjan), has no national carrier, and is only 70 miles from LFW so I would think it would be a major source of traffic for KP. If relatively minor destinations like OUA and COO see 737's, I would think ACC definitely would...

usflyer msp wrote:

berari wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

There probably is some truth to that about Nigeria but Ghana is very loose with traffic rights and still only sees DH4's (that they usually have to share with other destinations)

Ghana has a population of 20 Million. Nigeria has 186 Million. Could it be related to available traffic?

I'm not so sure about that, Accra is still the 3rd largest city in West Africa (after Lagos and Abidjan), has no national carrier, and is only 70 miles from LFW so I would think it would be a major source of traffic for KP. If relatively minor destinations like OUA and COO see 737's, I would think ACC definitely would...

What's the ground transportation like between ACC and LFW? I see 3:26 hours by car. Also competition at ACC is strong, with long haul operators as well as the likes of Arik and Air Ivoire in there. Either way, it clearly is not commanding larger aircraft.

One challenge that KP may have is that its home base, LFW itself does not command enough traffic. While Air Ivoire is able to operate 2x daily flights to many destinations, KP is not doing the same. Age and structure wise they are similar.