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KGRB
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Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:17 am

Image

SkyWest is reactivating the former Midwest/Republic hangars at MKE:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/bu ... 024580001/

"At 190,000 square feet, the facility in Milwaukee will be SkyWest's largest maintenance facility as measured by square footage. It will run 24 hours a day and has capacity to service up to 12 aircraft at a time."

SkyWest already has a much-smaller hangar on the southwest side of the airfield, so this is a huge expansion for them. Between OO and ZW's existing maintenance base there, MKE will certainly be bustling with RJ MX activity over the coming years.

It's great to see this huge complex being put back to use. Hopefully a buyer for the former Skyway hangar on Layton Ave. will be found soon as well.
Flown on: Air Wisconsin, America West, American, Compass, Delta, Endeavor Air, Envoy, ExpressJet, GoJet, KLM, Mesa, Mesaba, Midwest Express, Northwest, Piedmont, Pinnacle, PSA, Skyway, SkyWest, United, US Airways
 
9w748capt
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:07 am

I don't have much to add but - cool thread! I have gone memories of living in MKE. Would love to make it back to Door County sometime.
 
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qf789
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:00 am

As the previous thread has not been active for a while a new thread has been started, link to previous thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=597313&p=20089007#p20089007
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mke717spotter
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread

Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:01 am

KGRB wrote:
"At 190,000 square feet, the facility in Milwaukee will be SkyWest's largest maintenance facility as measured by square footage. It will run 24 hours a day and has capacity to service up to 12 aircraft at a time."

SkyWest already has a much-smaller hangar on the southwest side of the airfield, so this is a huge expansion for them. Between OO and ZW's existing maintenance base there, MKE will certainly be bustling with RJ MX activity over the coming years.

I hope this doesn't mean we're going to lose mainline flights as they try to cycle RJs through here for maintenance.

In other news, DL and AS are both upgrading SEA-MKE to mainline in the coming months.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread

Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:02 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
KGRB wrote:
"At 190,000 square feet, the facility in Milwaukee will be SkyWest's largest maintenance facility as measured by square footage. It will run 24 hours a day and has capacity to service up to 12 aircraft at a time."

SkyWest already has a much-smaller hangar on the southwest side of the airfield, so this is a huge expansion for them. Between OO and ZW's existing maintenance base there, MKE will certainly be bustling with RJ MX activity over the coming years.

I hope this doesn't mean we're going to lose mainline flights as they try to cycle RJs through here for maintenance.

In other news, DL and AS are both upgrading SEA-MKE to mainline in the coming months.


Skywest already have a whole lot of aircraft coming through Milwaukee each day but having the base here already likely gives us a few more RJ's than we might otherwise have. In 2016 Milwaukee was the second-busiest Skywest station outside of their hubs:

Average daily departures full year 2016
23.5 Boise
21.8 Milwaukee
21.1 Fresno
19.3 Tucson
17.3 Colorado Springs
16.6 San Diego
16.5 Santa Barbara
16.5 Palm Springs

Not coincidentally all of those cities except SAN and SBA have Skywest maintenance bases.

If you throw in Expressjet (also owned by Skywest) thhe only non-hub city which surpasses MKE's activity is Cleveland, which has the residual hub point-to-point flying.
(Anybody know if Skywest bases routinely do work on ExpressJet aircraft? )

Average daily Skywest+ExpressJet departures full year 2016
30.7 Cleveland
28.7 Milwaukee
23.5 Boise
21.1 Fresno
19.8 Tucson
18.7 Richmond
18.2 Baton Rouge
18.0 Colorado Springs

The picture is changing somewhat since Air Wisconsin ZW s transitioning to United Express. Skywest used to have most (sometimes all) of the Milwaukee-Chicago flying for United and American. Now ZW will have most of the United flying as a way to rotate aircraft to/from their own sizable base in Milwaukee. I've heard that's why we're getting more Skywest E75 to Denver instead of mainline -- Skywest needs to rotate UA aircraft here. The mx base here is way we already have two early-morning Skywest RJ's to Detroit rather than mainline flights -- it's been that way for years.

I do think having a maintenance base tends to get you more aircraft of the type served there. Sometimes that means having an RJ instead of a mainline aircraft on a flight, but on the other hand it can also mean getting (or keeping) a flight which would not otherwise exist. I'd love to see a few Skywest E75's on MKE-ORD and then have Air Wisconsin rotate an aircraft here with a nonstop to Dulles. We shall see.
 
GSPSPOT
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:13 pm

Hopefully the current seasonal SAN & SFO flts on WN will run longer or become year-round once more new planes come online.
Great Lakes, great life.
 
kiowa
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:48 pm

GSPSPOT wrote:
Hopefully the current seasonal SAN & SFO flts on WN will run longer or become year-round once more new planes come online.



It is a sad comparison between the outstanding airline "Midwest Express" and the low budget airline "Southwest". Milwaukee lost a true gem when Midex went out of business. I now avoid MKE and prefer ORD.
 
UWPAviation
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:55 pm

kiowa wrote:
GSPSPOT wrote:
Hopefully the current seasonal SAN & SFO flts on WN will run longer or become year-round once more new planes come online.



It is a sad comparison between the outstanding airline "Midwest Express" and the low budget airline "Southwest". Milwaukee lost a true gem when Midex went out of business. I now avoid MKE and prefer ORD.


It is sad, we do not have any year round Cali service. Besides the Southwest flight to LAX. Which has poor times.

With Alaska moving to mainline service for there Seattle route I would love to see them open up daily SFO flight with the acquisition of Virgin and a daily LAX flight.
 
GSPSPOT
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:02 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
kiowa wrote:
GSPSPOT wrote:
Hopefully the current seasonal SAN & SFO flts on WN will run longer or become year-round once more new planes come online.



It is a sad comparison between the outstanding airline "Midwest Express" and the low budget airline "Southwest". Milwaukee lost a true gem when Midex went out of business. I now avoid MKE and prefer ORD.


It is sad, we do not have any year round Cali service. Besides the Southwest flight to LAX. Which has poor times.

With Alaska moving to mainline service for there Seattle route I would love to see them open up daily SFO flight with the acquisition of Virgin and a daily LAX flight.

Agreed that specific situation is sad, but I will continue to use MKE for its much more manageable size and convenience unless fare differences are ridiculous.
Great Lakes, great life.
 
planespotter20
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:49 pm

Madison is getting a new nonstop flight from UA... to SFO!!

http://www.nbc15.com/content/news/Dane- ... 31893.html
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:28 am

planespotter20 wrote:
Madison is getting a new nonstop flight from UA... to SFO!!


UWPAviation wrote:
It is sad, we do not have any year round Cali service. Besides the Southwest flight to LAX. Which has poor times.
With Alaska moving to mainline service for there Seattle route I would love to see them open up daily SFO flight with the acquisition of Virgin and a daily LAX flight.


I’d say odds are better than even at least MKE-SFO returns year-round on Southwest, but competition to California seems painfully overdue. It’s only January, of course, but so far I’m surprised that we don’t (yet) even have something as minimal as a seasonal 3x/week redeye to any California destination on somebody like Frontier, Allegiant. Of course if I had a choice I’d prefer some year-round competition from a big player like Delta, American, United or Alaska, but it seems like there’s an abundance of leisure traveler spill during the warmer half of the year for a peak-chaser to add. The surest way to get United to start MKE-SFO is to have Alaska start it, and ditto for Delta if American were to add MKE-LAX.

In spite of seasonally losing those flights last fall 2017 has been pretty good at MKE. Milwaukee has thirteen new nonstop destinations from 3/17 through 3/17, giving Milwaukee 50.

Columbus
Guadalajara
Houston Hobby
Los Cabos
Miami
Nashville
Omaha
Orlando Sanford
Phoenix Mesa
Portland
Punta Gorda
Salt Lake City
St Petersburg

On top of that list we are likely to have at least a few more added in 2018 given OneJet’s focus city expansion plans, It's also possible Allegiant could add a few new markets such as Myrtle Beach or Austin this summer as their service continues to mature here -- it's only a few months old. What we can really use in 2018 is some expansion in some of our routes – longer seasons or year-round for some seasonal routes, more frequent flights on some less frequent (or less than daily) routes. For example Guadalajara posted great numbers in this its first summer – over 92% full in July with about 165/178 seat occupied, so maybe we can see added frequency during busier months. Getting year-round to SFO and hopefully SAN as well are high on the wish list, of course, but I’m hopeful those are in Southwest’s plans even if the routes don’t see new competitors. It would be good to see Portland's season run longer, and perhaps it will at some point, but with so many nonstop Seattle seats there may be pressure to serve Portland via a Seattle connection versus running the nonstop longer.

Madison’s SFO service is on E175 regional jets which are (apparently) already pushing useful range to go that far. The additional 75 or so miles to MKE is likely too far or perhaps Milwaukee would already have United or Alaska to SFO with the E75. It’s quite a coup for Madison to get a west coast nonstop – I’m guessing it’s among the smallest airports in the central US to have nonstops to both coasts.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:58 pm

Since this is a Wisconsin thread and not only Milwaukee here is how 2017 traffic is looking through October for out-state airports:

Through October:
Madison
1,404,717 + 4.1%
Green Bay
420,166 -3.4%
Appleton
412,314 +2.3%
Wausau/Central Wisconsin
174,551 -1.7
La Crosse
138,852 -3.2%
Rhinelander
35,180 +13.2%
Eau Claire
35,051 +11.2%

Madison is posting solid growth and will continue to do so with more attention in 2018. Appleton surpasses Green Bay in some months and I suspect they may pull ahead, but in essence they’ve been pretty much on par for several years.

I find it interesting that the EAS markets of Rhinelander and Eau Claire have grown so much, something several EAS markets in the north have done . If you throw in the UP (excluding Sault Ste Marie which is not really in Wisconsin’s orbit) passenger traffic is up about 13% overall, or around 30k passengers, with Iron Mountain leading the way with over 13k more passengers than last year. I wonder how much of the decrease seen in Green Bay and Wausau comes from people using IMT and RHI instead of driving down to GRB or CWA.

Milwaukee’s stats are available through November, which itself posted a nice 7.4% year-over year increase but only brought the 11-months YOY increase up to 2.2%. Three big things going on:

--Large decrease in connection passengers
Connections are down 36.7% through November, which is all about Southwest. The flipside of this is that it means local traffic over last year is actually up about 4.6%, not 2.2%. Connecting traffic can flow most anyplace, but the local traffic is really what airlines look to serve.

--West coast cuts hit passenger counts
Sadly it’s likely MKE will just miss the 7.0m passenger count for 2017 by a few tens of thousands. Through November MKE has 6,383,726 total passengers. The dropped Southwest nonstops to the west coast carried more than 80k passengers last fall. Some of those people found their way onto other flights but many were undoubtedly lost to O’Hare. After posting a 7.3% year-over-year increase in August, airport traffic was off, -4.8% in September and -2.7% in October. Southwest’s drop was the big factor.

--Big Florida increases
Primarily driven by major expansion by Frontier and the entrance of Allegiant, capacity to Florida is up over 20% this winter and spring break season. That’s how November posted the 7.4% gains in spite of the lost west coast service which killed the September and October numbers.

The big Florida increase should give Milwaukee good numbers through Easter or so. We'll see how the spring and summer shape up for a better take on all of 2018.
 
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:34 pm

Yesterday's Green Bay Press-Gazette had an article about airlines increasing capacity at GRB. More mainline for Delta and larger RJs for United and American.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/sto ... 075408001/
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:27 pm

With Frontier's Austin and Raleigh that makes 15 new nonstop cities from MKE since last March:

Austin
Columbus
Guadalajara
Houston Hobby
Los Cabos
Miami
Nashville
Omaha
Orlando Sanford
Phoenix Mesa
Portland
Punta Gorda
Raleigh
Salt Lake City
St Petersburg

At the moment you can book nonstops to 52 cities from Milwaukee. Milwaukee is losing DAL next month (moving to HOU) and there's no guarantee MIA and IWA will come back next winter. But it's still quite a nice jump, hopefully a trend which continues.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:08 pm

knope2001 wrote:
With Frontier's Austin and Raleigh that makes 15 new nonstop cities from MKE since last March:


When did we get a SJD flight? I don't see it on MKE's website and its not listed on the Apple Vacations MKE flight schedule.

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-sc ... milwaukee/
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:02 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
With Frontier's Austin and Raleigh that makes 15 new nonstop cities from MKE since last March:


When did we get a SJD flight? I don't see it on MKE's website and its not listed on the Apple Vacations MKE flight schedule.

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-sc ... milwaukee/


Interesting -- it must have been pulled or only operated on certain dates in January and/or early February. It was on the MKE website and was Apple-only (not FunJet) and once per week. I see Punta Cana is 3x/week the rest of the season and I *think* it was only 2x before. Perhaps based on booking demand PUJ was stronger and SJD weaker. Apple is running two daily sun flights each morning (plus a third trip on Saturday late PM) so there's not a day when a plane sits idle that previously was planned for Cabo.
 
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:35 am

MSN is getting $25M worth of improvements:

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/ ... e7cbf.html
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jplatts
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:19 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Milwaukee is losing DAL next month (moving to HOU) and there's no guarantee MIA and IWA will come back next winter. But it's still quite a nice jump, hopefully a trend which continues.


There is an average of 720 passengers per day who travel to MKE from DFW/DAL in Q2 2017, and there are only currently 752 regular economy-class seats available per day on AA's DFW-MKE nonstops. There appears to be enough demand for either AA to fly larger planes on DFW-MKE, for AA to add an extra DFW-MKE nonstop, or for WN to bring back DAL-MKE nonstop service at some point.

AA currently operates DFW-MKE on MD-80 planes, but AA could fly 737-800 or A321 planes that have more regular economy class seats on its DFW-MKE nonstops in order to fill in the void left by WN discontinuing DAL-MKE.

WN will still be able to connect passengers to MKE from DAL through MCI, STL, and BNA after the discontinuation of DAL-MKE nonstop service, and DL can connect passengers to MKE from DFW through MSP. In addition, flying in First Class or Main Cabin Extra on the AA DFW-MKE nonstops is also usually more expensive than flying from DFW to MKE on DL through MSP in regular economy class or flying from DAL to MKE on WN through MCI, STL, or BNA.

AA has enough room to accommodate the O&D demand between DFW and MKE on its DFW-MKE nonstops if Main Cabin Extra and First Class Seats are included, but the higher fares normally charged for Main Cabin Extra and First Class make the connecting options on WN and DL between DFW/DAL and MKE more attractive.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:18 pm

We will almost certainly see fewer passengers between Milwaukee and Dallas with the loss of MKE DAL and Frontier not bringing back the non daily summer Dfw flight. Demand is not fixed — it is shaped by capacity quite a bit. That’s particularly true given how readily some of Milwaukees market spills to nearby ORD when options are better. Of course the demand elasticity is impacted by fares, so perhaps the volume of traffic the the market last year was at weaker than ideal fares.

I do think Southwest will still carry quite a few Dallas passengers via intermediate cities and we might see AA eventually up capacity a bit, but largely we will see traffic volume slip from the capacity reduction.
 
ADrum23
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:18 am

Will WN ever come to MSN or is Madison too small of a market for WN?
 
77H
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:26 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Will WN ever come to MSN or is Madison too small of a market for WN?


Good question. Madison and it’s immediate “suburbs” are home to over 300,000 people. The Madison MSA is over 500,000 people. WN serves smaller markets than MSN but is surrounded by larger markets already served by WN like MKE and it’s largest station MDW all within driving distance which makes it less likely.

Beyond that, not sure what markets WN would serve from MSN that are not already well covered by AA, DL, F9 and UA. MSN is very well connected for a market it’s size with nonstops to a majority of the US3 hubs and one-stop connectivity to countless destinations with F9 offering nonstops to a few popular leisure markets.

All that said, the more I type the more I start to think it’s likely that MSN may not see a new carrier for some time. I think AS would be the most likely next entrant into the MSN market with E75 service to SEA. Probably a long shot given they already serve MKE and ORD but if I’m not mistaken MKE is being upgauged to mainline which I take to mean the route is a decent performer. Perhaps that success is cause for AS to continue to explore options in the region.

Would be interesting to know what the top 5-10 markets are from MSN that aren’t already served nonstop.

77H
 
jplatts
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:51 pm

77H wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Will WN ever come to MSN or is Madison too small of a market for WN?


Good question. Madison and it’s immediate “suburbs” are home to over 300,000 people. The Madison MSA is over 500,000 people. WN serves smaller markets than MSN but is surrounded by larger markets already served by WN like MKE and it’s largest station MDW all within driving distance which makes it less likely.

Beyond that, not sure what markets WN would serve from MSN that are not already well covered by AA, DL, F9 and UA. MSN is very well connected for a market it’s size with nonstops to a majority of the US3 hubs and one-stop connectivity to countless destinations with F9 offering nonstops to a few popular leisure markets.

All that said, the more I type the more I start to think it’s likely that MSN may not see a new carrier for some time. I think AS would be the most likely next entrant into the MSN market with E75 service to SEA. Probably a long shot given they already serve MKE and ORD but if I’m not mistaken MKE is being upgauged to mainline which I take to mean the route is a decent performer. Perhaps that success is cause for AS to continue to explore options in the region.

Would be interesting to know what the top 5-10 markets are from MSN that aren’t already served nonstop.

77H


While WN does serve GRR nonstop from MDW, MSN is closer to MDW than GRR is. MSN is also likely to be too close to MDW for WN to serve MSN nonstop from MDW since MSN is only 124 miles NW of MDW.

If WN did start service out of MSN, WN could serve DEN, MCI, STL, BNA, and BWI nonstop from MSN. However, all 5 of these destinations are already served nonstop from both MKE and MDW on WN, and MKE is only a hour-and-a-half drive from Downtown Madison.

Other possible destinations not currently served nonstop from MSN that WN could serve nonstop from MSN if it started service out of MSN include FLL, HOU, PHX, and TPA, but WN already serves FLL, PHX, and TPA from MKE, and WN will also be starting MKE-HOU nonstop service on March 8th.
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:04 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Since this is a Wisconsin thread and not only Milwaukee here is how 2017 traffic is looking through October for out-state airports:
Through October:
...Green Bay
420,166 -3.4%
Appleton
412,314 +2.3%
...Appleton surpasses Green Bay in some months and I suspect they may pull ahead, but in essence they’ve been pretty much on par for several years. ...I wonder how much of the decrease seen in Green Bay and Wausau comes from people using IMT and RHI instead of driving down to GRB or CWA ...


Green Bay Airport's own figures for 2017 are out and, although the stats show only enplanements, they show the decrease in numbers are mainly due to a considerable drop in charter numbers (down 17% - a stat I cannot explain - perhaps someone here can?) and a large drop in Delta's numbers (also cannot explain). This, I think is certainly more of a reason for the pax decline at GRB than leakage to IMT and RHI.
http://www.flygrb.com/sites/default/fil ... tats_0.pdf

Incidentally, United and American show increases of 2.4 and 2.0 percent respectively in 2017, with Delta showing a sizable decrease of 6.7% (12,542 less pax than the year before!). Still, Delta enplanes more than AA and UA combined at GRB, due to several factors including flying nonstop from GRB to three of its hubs, whereas AA and UA only deliver pax to ORD. There's also the long history of Northwest at Green Bay which Delta has inherited and the fact that DL uses a mix of mainline and regional jets, whereas AA and UA use only regionals.

As far as ATW vs. GRB, the latter has one advantage over Appleton in being closer to Door County whose visitors and residents augment GRB's numbers.

yeo
Last edited by yeogeo on Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm

Madison is definitely on the margins for Southwest -- some of its peers do have service but most who do were inherited from AirTran or have been with Southwest 20+ years.

Here are some airports for comparison:with 2016 US ranking and traffic:

#79 TUL 2.6m
#80 GRR 2.6m
#82 BHM 2.6m
#83 DSM 2.4m
#84 ROC 2.3m
#85 SAV 2.1m
#86 DAY 2.0m
#87 PSP 2.0m
#88 MHT 2.0m
#89 GSP 2.0m
#90 SYR 2.0m
#91 LIT 1.9m
#94 MSN 1.8m
#95 TYS 1.7m
#96 PWM 1.7m
#97 GSO 1.7m
#98 PNS 1.6m
#99 ICT 1.6m
#101 FAT 1.5m
#104 CAK 1.3m
#105 XNA 1.3m
#106 COS 1.3m
#108 LEX 1.3m
#109 ISP 1.2m

Of course Southwest service would stimulate the market and bump traffic up a bit, but this set of airports is pretty familiar in Southwest route discussions over the years. They fall into four general categories:

1. "Will Southwest Add...."Freano, Colorado Springs, Lexington, Greensboro, etc.....the answer has been no

2. "But Southwest already serves..." Manchester, Islip, Little Rock, etc..... it was a very different Southwest back then

3. Smaller former AirTran stations always rumored to be in trouble...Wichita, Des Moines, Greenville, etc.....likely Southwest would not have added these without the merger

4. Smaller former AirTran stations which Southwest decided not to serve, either dropped before merger or after Southwest gave it a try....Akron, Lexington, Dayton, Knoxville


Now there's long been talk that someday Southwest needs to figure out how to serve stations in this range. The banked hub at STL has been part of the answer and many years of "Southwest needs to get a smaller aircraft" talk has been nothing more than talk. It's not out ot the realm of possibility Southwest could add Madison with something like 2x STL and 1x PHX or LAS, but so far they have found ample growth opportunities without adding new, likely-marginal stations on the small end like Madison.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:48 pm

2017 stats are finally out for MKE.

Total traffic up 2.4% to 6,922,130.

Connecting traffic down 37.8%, virtually all of that is Southwest.

If connecting traffic is pulled out of the stats for 2016 the local MIlwaukee O+D was up 4.9% in 2017.

Southwest remains the largest carrier at 42.5% market share, down from 45.7%
Total WN traffic was down 4.7%, largely from the last four month of the year when SAN/SFO/SEA nonstop were suspended.
Nearly all of the yearly loss came from connecting flow, however. Backing out connecting flow the local Southwest MKE O+D was down 0.07%

Delta remain #2 in market share, growing from 24.7% to 25.3% American was #3 growing from 12.6% to 13.0%.

Other than Southwest everybody else increased volume over last year

+83,053 Delta, up 5.0%
+60,466 Frontier, up 15.3%
+49,462 United, up 8,2%
+46,842 American, up 5.5%
+20,805 Allegiant (new)
+19,400 Volaris (new)
+17,380 Winter Charters (Norwegian/Swift), up 35.1%
+11,465 Alaska, up 22.9%
+2,731 OneJet, up 202.0%
+506 Air Canada, up 1.5%
-146,296 Southwest, down 4.7%

Without connecting passengers Southwest's O+D was off -1,976, down 0.07%
 
TYSflyer
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:57 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Madison is definitely on the margins for Southwest -- some of its peers do have service but most who do were inherited from AirTran or have been with Southwest 20+ years.

Here are some airports for comparison:with 2016 US ranking and traffic:

#79 TUL 2.6m
#80 GRR 2.6m
#82 BHM 2.6m
#83 DSM 2.4m
#84 ROC 2.3m
#85 SAV 2.1m
#86 DAY 2.0m
#87 PSP 2.0m
#88 MHT 2.0m
#89 GSP 2.0m
#90 SYR 2.0m
#91 LIT 1.9m
#94 MSN 1.8m
#95 TYS 1.7m
#96 PWM 1.7m
#97 GSO 1.7m
#98 PNS 1.6m
#99 ICT 1.6m
#101 FAT 1.5m
#104 CAK 1.3m
#105 XNA 1.3m
#106 COS 1.3m
#108 LEX 1.3m
#109 ISP 1.2m

Of course Southwest service would stimulate the market and bump traffic up a bit, but this set of airports is pretty familiar in Southwest route discussions over the years. They fall into four general categories:

1. "Will Southwest Add...."Freano, Colorado Springs, Lexington, Greensboro, etc.....the answer has been no

2. "But Southwest already serves..." Manchester, Islip, Little Rock, etc..... it was a very different Southwest back then

3. Smaller former AirTran stations always rumored to be in trouble...Wichita, Des Moines, Greenville, etc.....likely Southwest would not have added these without the merger

4. Smaller former AirTran stations which Southwest decided not to serve, either dropped before merger or after Southwest gave it a try....Akron, Lexington, Dayton, Knoxville


Now there's long been talk that someday Southwest needs to figure out how to serve stations in this range. The banked hub at STL has been part of the answer and many years of "Southwest needs to get a smaller aircraft" talk has been nothing more than talk. It's not out ot the realm of possibility Southwest could add Madison with something like 2x STL and 1x PHX or LAS, but so far they have found ample growth opportunities without adding new, likely-marginal stations on the small end like Madison.


Nice assessment. I also think that it is important to realize that many of these markets on the "margins" are among the highest priced airports in the country and as a result have suppressed passenger numbers. I think GSP was around 1.2-1.4 million prior to adding WN. Granted I don't think this changes your point very much. Also, I suspect that WN garners a good percentage of passengers that drive to MKE/MDW from MSN, but I suspect these numbers will gradually drop as F9 and possibly G4 grow this market.
 
jplatts
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:09 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Madison is definitely on the margins for Southwest -- some of its peers do have service but most who do were inherited from AirTran or have been with Southwest 20+ years.

Of course Southwest service would stimulate the market and bump traffic up a bit, but this set of airports is pretty familiar in Southwest route discussions over the years. They fall into four general categories:

1. "Will Southwest Add...."Freano, Colorado Springs, Lexington, Greensboro, etc.....the answer has been no

2. "But Southwest already serves..." Manchester, Islip, Little Rock, etc..... it was a very different Southwest back then

3. Smaller former AirTran stations always rumored to be in trouble...Wichita, Des Moines, Greenville, etc.....likely Southwest would not have added these without the merger

4. Smaller former AirTran stations which Southwest decided not to serve, either dropped before merger or after Southwest gave it a try....Akron, Lexington, Dayton, Knoxville

Now there's long been talk that someday Southwest needs to figure out how to serve stations in this range. The banked hub at STL has been part of the answer and many years of "Southwest needs to get a smaller aircraft" talk has been nothing more than talk. It's not out ot the realm of possibility Southwest could add Madison with something like 2x STL and 1x PHX or LAS, but so far they have found ample growth opportunities without adding new, likely-marginal stations on the small end like Madison.


Correction to #3: WN did not acquire GSP through the WN-FL merger, but announced plans to serve GSP right after the FL acquisition by WN. WN also used to serve BWI, MDW, HOU, and BNA nonstop from GSP, but WN now only serves ATL nonstop from GSP.

With respect to #2, WN started service out of MHT and ISP back when WN didn't serve BOS, LGA, or EWR.

WN had actually considered serving ICT prior to the WN-FL merger in order to take advantage of the Shelby Amendment that allowed nonstop service to DAL from ICT, but WN started service out of ICT after FL was acquired by WN, and WN has also discontinued DAL-ICT nonstop service.

Fresno is the largest U.S. city proper that is not currently served by WN, and the Fresno metropolitan area is the largest metropolitan area in the contiguous U.S. that is not currently served by WN. In addition, Fresno is located further from an airport served by WN than Madison is, and both of these factors make WN service to FAT more likely than WN service to MSN.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:42 pm

jplatts wrote:
Correction to #3: WN did not acquire GSP through the WN-FL merger, but announced plans to serve GSP right after the FL acquisition by WN. WN also used to serve BWI, MDW, HOU, and BNA nonstop from GSP, but WN now only serves ATL nonstop from GSP.


You're right -- Greenville was a direct Southwest add in early 2011. That GSP struggled for years and that few if any small airports were added since then by Southwest doesn't exactly encourage Madison's prospects.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:13 pm

jplatts wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
Fresno is the largest U.S. city proper that is not currently served by WN, and the Fresno metropolitan area is the largest metropolitan area in the contiguous U.S. that is not currently served by WN. In addition, Fresno is located further from an airport served by WN than Madison is, and both of these factors make WN service to FAT more likely than WN service to MSN.


One huge thing working against Fresno is that it is widely viewed as "drivable" to/from every large CA metro area other than San Diego (although I know some people in SAN who would rather drive). When SMF was finally added in 1991 after much lobbying (at the time, it was in a somewhat similar place to what FAT is now), most of the demand was to Southern California (still mostly true today), including San Diego, because those places were not viewed as drivable. Fresno probably won't ever have that.

One huge thing working *for* Fresno is high O&D to Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Diego, all major SW cities. After Guadalajara, the top O&D cities from FAT were listed as LAS, SEA, PHX, and SAN in a recent report put out by the airport. Surprisingly, LAX made it in to top 10. SNA did not make it on the list, but then again, there are no non-stop flights, and who's going to connect to get to SNA from FAT? It's very, very likely (IMHO) that SW would greatly increase the O&D on FAT-LAS based on how high those numbers were as little as 5 years ago when 3 airlines served it. Combined with connections in one of their largest focus cities, I would imagine that 3 flights per day FAT-LAS would be a slam dunk for SW. The question would be whether 1-2 PHX and 1 SAN would combine with LAS to be enough to justify beginning service. It seems like SW would rather focus on adding more frequency than trying new flights to smaller markets.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:33 am

yeogeo wrote:
Green Bay Airport's own figures for 2017 are out and, although the stats show only enplanements, they show the decrease in numbers are mainly due to a considerable drop in charter numbers (down 17% - a stat I cannot explain - perhaps someone here can?) and a large drop in Delta's numbers (also cannot explain). This, I think is certainly more of a reason for the pax decline at GRB than leakage to IMT and RHI.
http://www.flygrb.com/sites/default/fil ... tats_0.pdf


Charters I can explain -- the LSU-Badger game in September 2016 added a boatload of additional charter passengers beyond the normal NFL bump in charter numbers at GRB. There were also a few more gambling charters in early 2016 than early 2017.

The Delta drop is harder to explain, but I keep coming back to the UP. Between Iron Mountain, Marquette and Escanaba they boarded about 13,000 more people than last year, nearly all Delta. Overall traffic from all UP airports was up about 11% in 2017 over 2016, but there's no particular reason to think the region's true air traffic grew that much in one year. It seems most likely that MQT getting a new flight to MSP and IMT getting a new flight to DTW allowed more passenger to use thoe airports rather than driving down to GRB. Where IMT/MQT/ESC enplanement were up about 13k, Delta's GRB enplanements were down about 12.5k.

I don't think more people using UP airports is precisely 100% of the story. Fewer seats, for example, can readily drive people to use ATW or MKE when good fares (or open seats) are harder to find at Green Bay. But many of those added UP enplanements likely come from people who didn't use the highway, and I suspect many of them likely used GRB.
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:37 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Charters I can explain -- the LSU-Badger game in September 2016 added a boatload of additional charter passengers beyond the normal NFL bump in charter numbers at GRB. There were also a few more gambling charters in early 2016 than early 2017.
The Delta drop is harder to explain, but I keep coming back to the UP....


Thanks, knope, for the response. As always, your knowledge on these subjects is impressive!
I had no idea about the LSU charters - would have been interested in seeing GRB operating under those conditions - must have been wild. http://host.madison.com/wsj/sports/coll ... 18b1b.html

Also I was unaware of the changes to the UP's service w. Delta and now agree with you: these must be affecting to some extent DL's numbers in Green Bay; but good for pax in Marquette and Iron Mountain. I'm a fan of more flying and less driving, but until some carrier opens a Sturgeon Bay>hub route I'm stuck driving an hour and a half to GRB myself.

yeo
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:12 pm

Looks like Air Wisconin has opened pilot and F/A bases in Milwaukee. Seems to have gone under the radar media-wise.

https://www.facebook.com/AirWisconsin/
https://twitter.com/airwisconsin?lang=en

As long as we're already getting a heavier CRJ diet because of the mx base it's good to have the benefit of crews based here as well.
 
seanpmassey
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:37 pm

Based on this weeks OAG, it looks like American will be adding a 3rd daily to ORD starting in June. This will be an evening flight to O'Hare and will likely be the last departure out of Appleton.

It's good to see American expanding service here, and an evening departure has been a glaring hole in their current service.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 08, 2018 12:08 pm

February stats are out for MKE and full-year T100’s for other state airports so I figured I’d post an update .

Milwaukee MKE traffic was up 8.4% for February 2018 to 534,868 and up 8.1% for the year. A few notable things about February for Milwaukee:

1. Of the 41k+ additional passengers in 2018 about 50% came from Frontier snowbird expansion, about 25% came from Allegiant entering Milwaukee, and about 25% came from existing airline growth. Good to see growth among the existing carriers even as Frontier and Allegiant combined to add a bunch of capacity.

2. Southwest posted a 1.1% year over year growth, or 2.8% year-over-year if you look just at MKE O+D without connecting flow. This is encouraging at a time when Southwest has continued to nibble away at total flights at MKE. In 2018 the put about 10 more people on each flight than they did in 2017.

3. MKE set an all-time record for February local enplanements in 2018 at 267,827, surpassing the inflated dual-hub-dogfight years of 2010 (265,246) and 2011 (262,100). Back in those years local O+D (including drawi from northern Illinois) was stimulated by unsustainable fare wars, plus MKE had a comparably robust RJ network serving a (collective) substantial chunk of O+D traffic largely lost to the highways or ORD these days. Quite a few individual Milwaukee markets have long since surpassed the peak O+D numbers posted in 2010/2011, but never the total local enplanements. So it’s a milestone to finally have overcome.

We have 2017 passenger traffic at other Wisconsin airports based on December T100’s coming out:

Madison
1,888,806 +4.3%

Green Bay
563,706 -3.7%

Appleton
553,911 +2.3%

Wausau/Central Wisconsin
231,860 -1.8%

La Crosse
178.945 -0.9%

Eau Claire
46,504 +8.2%

Rhinelander
45,446 +12.6%
 
davescj
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:28 pm

In MKE DL had a club (taken over from NW) in terminal E. When DL moved to D, they took the Midwest Express "Best Care Club" (which was the only club in their system if memory serves). Has anyone else opened a club in E? I thought United might open something since they have a decent number of flights there, the club space isn't super large so the price should be (relatively) reasonable.
Can I have a mojito on this flight?
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:46 pm

davescj wrote:
In MKE DL had a club (taken over from NW) in terminal E. When DL moved to D, they took the Midwest Express "Best Care Club" (which was the only club in their system if memory serves). Has anyone else opened a club in E? I thought United might open something since they have a decent number of flights there, the club space isn't super large so the price should be (relatively) reasonable.


United moved over to C last year -- E is to be rebuilt into the new international arrivals faciilty but is planned to have 2-3 departure gates useable for international or domestic departures. The county allocated 2018 funds for the first half of the project but work has not yet begun.

As for a United club I would guess their traffic volume is too low at Milwaukee . American would be next in line size-wise but again I'd guess volumes are on the low side for a club. For 2017:

2,94m Southwest (does not do clubs)
1.73m Delta - club
0.90m American - no club
0.66m United - no club
 
kiowa
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:51 pm

davescj wrote:
In MKE DL had a club (taken over from NW) in terminal E. When DL moved to D, they took the Midwest Express "Best Care Club" (which was the only club in their system if memory serves). Has anyone else opened a club in E? I thought United might open something since they have a decent number of flights there, the club space isn't super large so the price should be (relatively) reasonable.


A United club in Milwaukee is doubtful. United just pulled their Cleveland flight. Now I have to drive to ORD to get to CLE. I don’t fly that often to Cleveland but would rather use MKE.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:22 pm

kiowa wrote:
davescj wrote:
In MKE DL had a club (taken over from NW) in terminal E. When DL moved to D, they took the Midwest Express "Best Care Club" (which was the only club in their system if memory serves). Has anyone else opened a club in E? I thought United might open something since they have a decent number of flights there, the club space isn't super large so the price should be (relatively) reasonable.


A United club in Milwaukee is doubtful. United just pulled their Cleveland flight. Now I have to drive to ORD to get to CLE. I don’t fly that often to Cleveland but would rather use MKE.


Not willing to take Southwest's nonstops to Cleveland? Frequent flyer credit??
 
jplatts
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 08, 2018 4:04 pm

Will UA ever add nonstop service to IAD from MKE and MSN? Wisconsin is the 2nd most populous U.S. state after Maryland that doesn't have any nonstop service to IAD. UA also has nonstop service to IAD from other Midwestern states, including Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. WN is also currently the only airline to have nonstop service to Washington, D.C. from MKE, and WN serves BWI and DCA nonstop from MKE. DL is also currently the only airline to serve DCA nonstop from MSN.

The lack of UA nonstop service to IAD from MKE and MSN is a hole in the UA network, especially with UA serving IAD nonstop from other Midwestern states and with MKE and DCA currently only having nonstop service to Washington, D.C. on only 1 airline. The lack of UA nonstop service to IAD from MSN is a bigger hole than the lack of UA nonstop service to MKE is with MSN being located in the capital city of Wisconsin and with the lack of WN service out of MSN. UA should add MKE-IAD and MSN-IAD nonstop service.
 
kiowa
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 08, 2018 4:26 pm

knope2001 wrote:
kiowa wrote:
davescj wrote:
In MKE DL had a club (taken over from NW) in terminal E. When DL moved to D, they took the Midwest Express "Best Care Club" (which was the only club in their system if memory serves). Has anyone else opened a club in E? I thought United might open something since they have a decent number of flights there, the club space isn't super large so the price should be (relatively) reasonable.


A United club in Milwaukee is doubtful. United just pulled their Cleveland flight. Now I have to drive to ORD to get to CLE. I don’t fly that often to Cleveland but would rather use MKE.


Not willing to take Southwest's nonstops to Cleveland? Frequent flyer credit??


We avoid southwest for all air travel. They are not a viable option. I would much rather drive an extra hour to Chicago.
 
NWAESC
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:41 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will UA ever add nonstop service to IAD from MKE and MSN? Wisconsin is the 2nd most populous U.S. state after Maryland that doesn't have any nonstop service to IAD. UA also has nonstop service to IAD from other Midwestern states, including Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. WN is also currently the only airline to have nonstop service to Washington, D.C. from MKE, and WN serves BWI and DCA nonstop from MKE. DL is also currently the only airline to serve DCA nonstop from MSN.

The lack of UA nonstop service to IAD from MKE and MSN is a hole in the UA network, especially with UA serving IAD nonstop from other Midwestern states and with MKE and DCA currently only having nonstop service to Washington, D.C. on only 1 airline. The lack of UA nonstop service to IAD from MSN is a bigger hole than the lack of UA nonstop service to MKE is with MSN being located in the capital city of Wisconsin and with the lack of WN service out of MSN. UA should add MKE-IAD and MSN-IAD nonstop service.


My guess is you'll see MSN-IAH on UAL long before you'll see IAD service.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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MKE22
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:41 pm

http://www.omaha.com/money/onejet-ends- ... f6d0b.html

MKE-OMA getting the axe after just 6 months as well, wasn't sure if that was mentioned yet.
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:01 pm

Some nasty flying weather for the upper Midwest today

GRB 73% cancelled
MKE 15%
ATW 10%
MSN 8%

MSP is at 18% cancelled - yesterday was worse there I guess.
ORD is at only 2%

Here in Door County we’re in a blizzard: 50 m/hr winds with 1-2 feet of new snow flying around.

https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:33 pm

yeogeo wrote:
Some nasty flying weather for the upper Midwest today

GRB 73% cancelled
MKE 15%
ATW 10%
MSN 8%

MSP is at 18% cancelled - yesterday was worse there I guess.
ORD is at only 2%

Here in Door County we’re in a blizzard: 50 m/hr winds with 1-2 feet of new snow flying around.

https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled


Sounds pretty brutal for flying, or driving, or anything. From how things look snow-wise this is already among the biggest snowstorms for Green Bay ever recorded.

MKE22 wrote:
http://www.omaha.com/money/onejet-ends-omaha-to-milwaukee-service-after-months/article_b5d06b74-7f5b-5f1d-bc76-86d1e5bf6d0b.html

MKE-OMA getting the axe after just 6 months as well, wasn't sure if that was mentioned yet.


OneJet told the Milwaukee Business Journal the Omaha cut is planned to be temporary as they move away from 7-seat busines jets to 30-seat RJ's. It sounds like they are running into maintnenence constraints on the business jet fleet their subcontractor operators for them. The OneJet rep said they hope to be able to restore Omaha and other suspended flying later in 2018. Of course their plans have been changable over time but it does not sound like Omaha...or suspended Cincinnati and Richmond for that matter...were cuts based on route failure. The rep also stated they hoped to have all Milwaukee flying on the larger RJ's by later this year. Elsewhere another participant posted OneJet planning for four ER3 this year, though that story (which was PIT-centric) did not state an intention to have all the business jet flying gone by end of year.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:55 pm

knope2001 wrote:
yeogeo wrote:
Some nasty flying weather for the upper Midwest today

GRB 73% cancelled
MKE 15%
ATW 10%
MSN 8%

MSP is at 18% cancelled - yesterday was worse there I guess.
ORD is at only 2%

Here in Door County we’re in a blizzard: 50 m/hr winds with 1-2 feet of new snow flying around.

https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled


Sounds pretty brutal for flying, or driving, or anything. From how things look snow-wise this is already among the biggest snowstorms for Green Bay ever recorded.

MKE22 wrote:
http://www.omaha.com/money/onejet-ends-omaha-to-milwaukee-service-after-months/article_b5d06b74-7f5b-5f1d-bc76-86d1e5bf6d0b.html

MKE-OMA getting the axe after just 6 months as well, wasn't sure if that was mentioned yet.


The rep also stated they hoped to have all Milwaukee flying on the larger RJ's by later this year. Elsewhere another participant posted OneJet planning for four ER3 this year, though that story (which was PIT-centric) did not state an intention to have all the business jet flying gone by end of year.


Article April 12, 2018.

http://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News ... -see-snags

"OneJet plans to have four ERJ 135s in service this summer, and Maguire said the carrier expects to be operating 75% of its flights with the 30-seat craft by the end of the year."
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:50 am

Midwestindy wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
yeogeo wrote:
Some nasty flying weather for the upper Midwest today

GRB 73% cancelled
MKE 15%
ATW 10%
MSN 8%

MSP is at 18% cancelled - yesterday was worse there I guess.
ORD is at only 2%

Here in Door County we’re in a blizzard: 50 m/hr winds with 1-2 feet of new snow flying around.

https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled


Sounds pretty brutal for flying, or driving, or anything. From how things look snow-wise this is already among the biggest snowstorms for Green Bay ever recorded.

MKE22 wrote:
http://www.omaha.com/money/onejet-ends-omaha-to-milwaukee-service-after-months/article_b5d06b74-7f5b-5f1d-bc76-86d1e5bf6d0b.html

MKE-OMA getting the axe after just 6 months as well, wasn't sure if that was mentioned yet.


The rep also stated they hoped to have all Milwaukee flying on the larger RJ's by later this year. Elsewhere another participant posted OneJet planning for four ER3 this year, though that story (which was PIT-centric) did not state an intention to have all the business jet flying gone by end of year.


Article April 12, 2018.

http://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News ... -see-snags

"OneJet plans to have four ERJ 135s in service this summer, and Maguire said the carrier expects to be operating 75% of its flights with the 30-seat craft by the end of the year."


Thanks! I'd forgotten what thread it had been posted in . Four by summer would be a nice bump up. The Milwaukee Business Journal item was from 4/3.

https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/n ... ee-to.html

It's always been something of a question...at least to those on the outside...if the business jets could make money in their model. They don't seem to have done much fare experimentation in their business jet markets -- I would think that if (for example) $200 wasn't covering costs in a market they'd try pushing the fare up to see if enough demands existed at $250. So not sure what to make of it. But I do think the somewhat larger regional jet gives them a whole lot more flexibility on pricing and utility for fliers who routinely find their desired flight sold out now.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:22 pm

Milwaukee saw a big increase in flying to Florida and Arizona this winter/spring, primarily driven by significant Frontier expansion and the entrance of Alleigant.

With January stats coming out recently I took a look at how these markets have been responding so far. In the face of a capacity increae around 25% the passenger traffic grew more than 31%. It's important to remember loads are only half the picture when guessing financial performace. But when there's a big capacity increase filling seats is job 1 so this is at least a good result in that fundemental measure.

MKE to/from Florida and Arizona, January 2018 verus January 2017

Flights +17.5%
909 to 1068

Capacity +25.1%
140,362 to 175,650

Passengers +31.3%
110,582 to 145,242

Here are specifics of the five general markets: South Florida, Orlando Area, Southwest Florida, Tampa Bay, and Greater PHX

South Florida
Capacity +167.2%
9,613 to 25,686
Traffic +168.2%
7,468 to 20,027
Load Factor: 77.7% to 78.0%

Orlando Area
Capacity -15.6%
51,187 to 43,190
Traffic -3.4%
39,470 to 38,141
Load Factor: 77.1% to 88.3%

Southwest Florida
Capacity +54.2%
23,287 to 35,916
Traffic +51.9%
18,939 to 28,763
Load Factor:81.3% to 80.1%

Tampa Bay
Capacity +65.1%
Traffic +92.0%
10,467 to 20,094
Load Factor 67.2% to 78.1%

Greater Phoenix
Capacity +10.9%
Traffic +11.7%
34,238 to 38,237
Load Factor 84.1% to 84.7%


Given the big Florida increases all around it I found the Orlando Area reponse interesting. In the face of added competition to Florida Southwest scheduled one fewer Orlando flight than last year for the slower period between New Year's and the spring break ramp up, But even with a sizable cut in capacity to the Orlando Area (over 15%) traffic was only down 3.4%, translating into a load factor jump of more than 11 points.

Looking by airline the bulk of the growth did come from Alleigant (new with nearly 11k passengers) and Frontier (up about 23k passengers over last year). But American's PHX flights carried about 2% more pasengers and Southwest...who trimmed FL/AZ seats by about 9% for the month...still saw just under 1% increase in passengers. When we get to the true spring break peak period Southwest will not have a year-over-year capacity cut. So if the market holds true we may see an ever bigger bump in March.

If there's one soft spot it's that newcomver Allegiant only filled 74.4% of seats in January for Milwaukee. That's not absurdly low -- similar or better than Greensboro, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Providence, Little Rock, Oakland, Reno and others form Alleigant's January results. But it's on the light side with FLL (60.9%) and AZA (70.3%) definite underperformers in the system. Being the new kid in town at a time when much-better-known Frontier loaded up the market with capacity didn't help. Hopefully they gain footing through 2018 and do well next winter.

Again, loads alone are only half the picture here, but it's encouraging that in January -- typcially a slow period ahead of the true winter/spring sunbird rush...saw traffic grow well beyond the added capacity. Hopefully enough money was made so 2019 is at least as busy as 2018 in these markets.
 
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MKE22
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed May 02, 2018 5:53 am

MKE22 wrote:
http://www.omaha.com/money/onejet-ends-omaha-to-milwaukee-service-after-months/article_b5d06b74-7f5b-5f1d-bc76-86d1e5bf6d0b.html

MKE-OMA getting the axe after just 6 months as well, wasn't sure if that was mentioned yet.


The rep also stated they hoped to have all Milwaukee flying on the larger RJ's by later this year. Elsewhere another participant posted OneJet planning for four ER3 this year, though that story (which was PIT-centric) did not state an intention to have all the business jet flying gone by end of year.[/quote]

Article April 12, 2018.

http://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News ... -see-snags

"OneJet plans to have four ERJ 135s in service this summer, and Maguire said the carrier expects to be operating 75% of its flights with the 30-seat craft by the end of the year."[/quote]

Nice, I missed that. Good to see MKE-OMA will return. In regards to Allegiant "news", it looks like MKE-IWA won't return as I don't see it listed on their website route map.

MSN-PHL on AA is set to start in a few more days and MSN-SFO on UA is starting soon too, does anyone have info on how bookings are going on those two routes?
 
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AAlaxfan
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed May 02, 2018 7:18 pm

If there is a MSN - SFO, why can't there be a MKE - LAX on one of the legacies?
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mke717spotter
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Re: Wisconsin Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu May 03, 2018 3:41 am

Lots of extra action at MKE tonight due to the stormy weather down in Chicago. The diverts included an Asiana 777, Aer Lingus A330, 2 FedEx DC-10s, and of course several UA and AA flights. FlightAware also showed an EVA 777 enroute, but it ended up making it into ORD. When I noticed the activity starting to fire up on FlightAware I drove up to the airport to check it out. Below are some pics, the quality kind of sucks but I resorted to using my phone and it was getting dark out.
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Diverted passengers boarding buses bound for ORD. It must be quite the headache for those who were connecting.
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Eventually a line of storms hit MKE around 9 PM or else I'm sure we would've gotten a few more diverts. It was pretty crazy watching the wall of rain/wind move across the airfield at the moment the storm rolled in. One of the Freight Runners turboprops was starting his takeoff roll right then, and he still went up into it!
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