lightsaber wrote:

But eventually what happens from here on with regards to Air India will finally be decided by four of Modi’s trusted ministers - Arun Jaitley, Suresh Prabhu, Nitin Gadkari and Piyush Goyal. The quartet forms a group called Air India Specific Alternate Mechanism (AISAM), which will take a call on the future of the disinvestment process.

Interesting we now know who decides AI's fate...

So what now? I cannot imagine the GoI wants to keep burning a billion USD+ per year...

Lightsaber

Gadkari and Goyal figured out how to skirt the sticky issues such as land acquisition, unions, tariffs and so forth for the 2 fastest infra sectors, viz. roads and power.

Domestic aviation is growing at 25%, international at about 10-15%. If they figure out a way to sustain that growth, everyone will be happy. One easy fix would be to let Air India fend for itself. That will force Air India to sell slots at congested airports.

dtw2hyd wrote:

globetrotter94 wrote:

...
Regarding the 2nd part of your comment:
Right, which is why TK flights from DEL and BOM are always fully booked (speaking from experience). Plus, if those routes were being shunned, I'm sure that TK would be continuously expressing to fly to at least 6 other cities in India (3 of which are untouched by any other European carrier) as they have been doing over the past several years (sarcasm).

How can I put it delicately, Indians wouldn't go through a <four letter acronym> hub which is not worth mentioning on an av forum. Erdoğan should have thought about that.

WOW is in play now, so EU legacies are not the only game in town.

Yes, I am sure that WOW--which, by the way, would also only be able to fly 2 flights to India per day, just like TK, will steal all Indian traffic away from the EUB3 and the MEB3+TK--although they don't even have high-density 777s like the type TK flies to India. LOL. And in terms of "not worth mentioning on an av forum", perhaps you ought to triple check before making that remark. It's been mentioned many many times across airliners.net, is slated to be one of the largest and busiest airports in the world, offering one-stop connections to more places in the words, thanks purely to TK and the scale of its network. And I'm sure that President Erdoğan, being the leader of a country, has far more important things to worry about than an airport--even one as grand as I have just described. Not everything going on in India is because of Modi. Similarly, not everything going on in Turkey is because of Erdoğan. Simple.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

globetrotter94 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

IST may qualify for India open skies(>5000km@DEL rule), but I sincerely doubt Indians would go through IST with its reputation.

IST is not >5000km from DEL. Falls short at ~4,5000km.

Regarding the 2nd part of your comment:
Right, which is why TK flights from DEL and BOM are always fully booked (speaking from experience). Plus, if those routes were being shunned, I'm sure that TK would be continuously expressing to fly to at least 6 other cities in India (3 of which are untouched by any other European carrier) as they have been doing over the past several years (sarcasm).

Agreed. Turkish airlines doesn't have a bad reputation with Indians (although I'm not the biggest fan of their flight departure times x India). I think TK's issue is that most Indians don't really think of them as an airline they should fly, same on the US end (while TK might be full, they are usually a super cheap option even with earning UA FF points). The issue is the Indian govt has a bad impression of Turkey's govt based on Turkey supporting Pakistan on issues like terrorism in India etc. This is one thing both the Congress and BJP agree on. So unlikely TK will get more seats anytime soon. Should politics play a role in aviation bilaterals - absolutely. That said, I am glad there are two daily flights between IST-India. Surprised they don't fly IST-HYD instead of IST-BOM (I know why, $$$, but alluding to rhetoric of the historical links).

I have never thought that negative relations between India and Turkey (debatable whether the relations can actually be categorized as "negative", given the scale of trade, cultural ties, etc.) are what is behind TK's limited rights into India. IMO, it is more the fact that the Indian side of the bilateral is completely unused, and Turkey does not have leverage in terms of migrant worker communities or energy exports like UAE, Qatar, etc. This is why I was hoping that TK might look at the AI sale as a way to grab a foothold that they currently do not have in the Indian market. But clearly, for the foreseeable future, they have their hands full with the pending transfer to the new IST.

globetrotter94 wrote:

Yes, I am sure that WOW--which, by the way, would also only be able to fly 2 flights to India per day, just like TK, will steal all Indian traffic away from the EUB3 and the MEB3+TK--although they don't even have high-density 777s like the type TK flies to India. ...

Unlike IST, KEF is well over 5000km@DEL and qualifies for Indian open-skies, and WOW's A330NEOs will have range to most of secondary cities EU3 ignoring.

dtw2hyd wrote:

globetrotter94 wrote:

Yes, I am sure that WOW--which, by the way, would also only be able to fly 2 flights to India per day, just like TK, will steal all Indian traffic away from the EUB3 and the MEB3+TK--although they don't even have high-density 777s like the type TK flies to India. ...

Unlike IST, KEF is well over 5000km@DEL and qualifies for Indian open-skies, and WOW's A330NEOs will have range to most of secondary cities EU3 ignoring.

WOW only has plans to take on 4 A330NEO, in addition to the 3 they already have. For daily flights to Delhi & Mumbai, they already require 4 of these 7 aircraft. Plus, they want to start flights to other parts of Asia. Really doubt that WOW will ever become a major player in the Indian market, regardless of what happens to AI, or TK, or any of the other airlines mentioned on this thread thus far. Plus, Indians are not only going to North America. Lot of travellers to Europe and Middle East--I don't think a great many would choose to backtrack via Iceland, especially since WOW's price offers for Delhi are so far underwhelming.

vadodara wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

But eventually what happens from here on with regards to Air India will finally be decided by four of Modi’s trusted ministers - Arun Jaitley, Suresh Prabhu, Nitin Gadkari and Piyush Goyal. The quartet forms a group called Air India Specific Alternate Mechanism (AISAM), which will take a call on the future of the disinvestment process.

Interesting we now know who decides AI's fate...

So what now? I cannot imagine the GoI wants to keep burning a billion USD+ per year...

Lightsaber

Gadkari and Goyal figured out how to skirt the sticky issues such as land acquisition, unions, tariffs and so forth for the 2 fastest infra sectors, viz. roads and power.

Domestic aviation is growing at 25%, international at about 10-15%. If they figure out a way to sustain that growth, everyone will be happy. One easy fix would be to let Air India fend for itself. That will force Air India to sell slots at congested airports.

But is Air India holding on to a great number of unused slots? If not, how should they operate? They cannot simply become the Ryanair of India and move to other, less-used airports, since most metros in India only have one airport (if that).

globetrotter94 wrote:

vadodara wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

But eventually what happens from here on with regards to Air India will finally be decided by four of Modi’s trusted ministers - Arun Jaitley, Suresh Prabhu, Nitin Gadkari and Piyush Goyal. The quartet forms a group called Air India Specific Alternate Mechanism (AISAM), which will take a call on the future of the disinvestment process.

Interesting we now know who decides AI's fate...

So what now? I cannot imagine the GoI wants to keep burning a billion USD+ per year...

Lightsaber

Gadkari and Goyal figured out how to skirt the sticky issues such as land acquisition, unions, tariffs and so forth for the 2 fastest infra sectors, viz. roads and power.

Domestic aviation is growing at 25%, international at about 10-15%. If they figure out a way to sustain that growth, everyone will be happy. One easy fix would be to let Air India fend for itself. That will force Air India to sell slots at congested airports.

But is Air India holding on to a great number of unused slots? If not, how should they operate? They cannot simply become the Ryanair of India and move to other, less-used airports, since most metros in India only have one airport (if that).

For AI to grow, they need a money bag. No one seems to want to invest in an overstaffed airline.

Short of asking govt to put more money, what would u suggest?

dtw2hyd wrote:

Had GoI given just ONE Billion USD in 2009 per CAG recommendation, GoI wouldn't have wasted $3.3B AI wouldn't have accrued $8.1B debt.

You write things about this subject that are false. I do my best to ignore you (and I wonder how many others have that policy). Buy against my better judgement I'm asking. Can you provide a reputable source that says this? Not your own reasoning, but a source by someone I ought to trust that says this.

kitplane01 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Had GoI given just ONE Billion USD in 2009 per CAG recommendation, GoI wouldn't have wasted $3.3B AI wouldn't have accrued $8.1B debt.

You write things about this subject that are false. I do my best to ignore you (and I wonder how many others have that policy). Buy against my better judgement I'm asking. Can you provide a reputable source that says this? Not your own reasoning, but a source by someone I ought to trust that says this.

Read my statement you quoted, slowly, you will find the source.

You have zero knowledge on the topic, you have no data or source to prove me wrong, but you are 100% sure I am wrong.

dtw2hyd wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Had GoI given just ONE Billion USD in 2009 per CAG recommendation, GoI wouldn't have wasted $3.3B AI wouldn't have accrued $8.1B debt.

You write things about this subject that are false. I do my best to ignore you (and I wonder how many others have that policy). Buy against my better judgement I'm asking. Can you provide a reputable source that says this? Not your own reasoning, but a source by someone I ought to trust that says this.

Read my statement you quoted, slowly, you will find the source.

You have zero knowledge on the topic, you have no data or source to prove me wrong, but you are 100% sure I am wrong.

I should not have written sentences 1 and 2. I apologize.

Can you provide a link to something that says what you said? I did read "per CAG recomendation" but that's not a source I can use. Did they write some document that says that spending $1B would save $3.3B? Which document? Where?

I didn't say you were wrong on this. I said please provide a source.

This discussion on Air India is essentially becoming irrelevant.

Latest numbers from AAI for April 2018 Traffic. This is the growth story.
Cities like Indore, Ranchi, Raipur, Agartala, Udaipur, Bhopal, Leh, Surat, Silichar all posting >30% growth.
Air India probably has close to zero contribution to this story.

April 2018/April 2017 % Change

35 INDORE 235389 169658 38.7
36 RANCHI 203141 107574 88.8
37 RAIPUR 167934 101501 65.5
38 JAMMU 108116 113247 -4.5
39 AGARTALA 139321 102567 35.8
40 UDAIPUR 103760 77066 34.6
41 DEHRADUN 104661 89679 16.7
42 VADODARA 89847 77708 15.6
43 BHOPAL 69237 50192 37.9
44 LEH 60152 42346 42.0
45 SURAT 63369 28173 124.9
46 JODHPUR 35137 32340 8.6
47 SILCHAR 31821 24446 30.2

kitplane01 wrote:

...
Can you provide a link to something that says what you said? I did read "per CAG recomendation" but that's not a source I can use. Did they write some document that says that spending $1B would save $3.3B? Which document? Where?

There are only a handful of CAG/PAC reports on civil aviation. All contain depositions from several sources. There are also books published on this topic. Should be easy to find the source.

CAG predicted this debt spiral demise in 2009. GoI ignored their recommendation and all aviation pundits are now(2018) surprised and analyzing the causes of AI's demise.

CAG said a drip (like paying minimum payments on a credit card) is not going work and booster shot ie., early timely large equity infusion is a must.. Because of its own financial problems India could never spare $1B in 2009, 2010 or even in 2011. Bailout bill was passed in 2012. Six years too late.

What GoI did and still doing is exactly opposite to what CAG recommended in 2009 ie., not to make minimum payments and expect a recovery. Even with 26,000 crores spent, it didn't make a dent in AI's debt, hence wasted money.

650 crores in 2018, and every one is chanting AI gets a $1 Billion (6600 crores) every year. If AI got $1B/year since 2006, it should have got $12B bailout amount by now, why only $3.1B(26,000 crores). Any elementary school kid should be able verify, correct?

Why a.net have difficulty with basic math.

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I cannot imagine the GoI wants to keep burning a billion USD+ per year...

Lightsaber

That is a false statement, unless you have evidence to support it. Had GoI given just ONE Billion USD in 2009 per CAG recommendation, GoI wouldn't have wasted $3.3B AI wouldn't have accrued $8.1B debt.

2011-12 - 1200 cr
2012-13 - 4000 cr
2013-14 - 5000 cr
2014-15 - 5500 cr (highest AI ever received in a year)
2015-16 - 2500 cr
2016-17 - 1800 cr
2017-18 - 650 cr

Again, debt guarantees are the same as subsidies. The GoI is on the hook for that debt.
Or are you stating that AI is no longer receiving debt guarantees they were receiving? If that has stopped, I can retract my statement. Otherwise, every penny of AI debt is in reality GoI debt effecting GoI bond ratings. Where India is in the development curve, the government should be borrowing for infrastructure (which I include education as well as water, medical, power, roads/rail, and airports).

If AI loses money, the GoI has to constrain spending elsewhere. There is a reason there is concern at the current losses by Air India.
This wouldn't matter if India bonds were selling well. Nope: https://in.reuters.com/article/india-bo ... NKBN1I51AA
Did I read that correctly that the GoI is borrowing at 7.5%? There is no way, due to the guarantees, to break apart the GoI issues from AI and vice versa.

So until the debt guarantee is terminated, I stand by every bit of debt AI takes on is a subsidy, even if not payed in the year of the loss.

The reality is none of India's government owned enterprises are adapting as they should be. Cest la vie.
For the sake of the GoI bond rating, Air India must be sold. Some debt must get off the government books or the spiral will get worse.

Project forward AI's loses when Indigo has the A321NEO and widebodies, Spicejet starts expanding again with the MAX, and GoAir isn't constrained by Pratt engine issues. Next year (as in calendar 2019) will probably be the most brutally competitive year yet for Indian Airlines. If AI had been sold, I could believe it would adapt at a reasonable rate. Now what?

I'm an analyst (fluids and aircraft), so I model everything. I model the Indian aviation market... as a hobby. To meet the growth that will happen over the next 19 months, RASK in India *must* drop. But since aviation is a very elastic market, the quantity of fliers will increase substantially with a drop in RASK. By my calculations, about 13% more growth for a 0.1 drop (Rupees per seat kilometer). India needs the drop in RASK to help national economic growth. So today's RASK is 3.4 with Indigo having a CASK of 3.3. The NEO cuts fuel burn 15%, or CASK by 5% (ish) to 3.15. The A321NEO cuts that further. Indigo claims 15%, I model more like 12%... But even a 12% drop gets CASK down to 2.78. So Indigo can push CASK down (assuming they either rotate out CEOs or increase seats to 186) and still make good money. What will AI do?

No government owned entity evolves as fast as private industry. Indian aviation over the next 19 months will change more than it did over the past 3 years, perhaps as much as past 4 years. Interesting times as the old Chinese curse goes...

So will AI be split into manageable chunks as bidders requested? Every other Indian airline that I'm aware of is only carrying aircraft debt (foreign lower interest rates vs. Indian rates). Has the debt on AI aircraft been paid down fast enough to bring them near their market value, or is there hidden debt there too (It is cheaper than borrowing from Indian banks).
https://qz.com/1247394/air-india-sale-w ... t-10-days/

Unfortunately, the 1st sale attempt will always generate the highest bids. I haven't seen AI's numbers on RASK dropping 0.12 in a year and fuel up 30% which boosted CASK by about 0.3.
So we started with AI having a CASK of 4.7 with a RASK of 4.0 (see earlier links) and 6E having a RASK dropping from 3.4 to 3.3. 6E's CASK grew due to currency losses and that fuel. What did AI's RASK drop to? What is their RASK. Did they evolve fast enough to get domestic (say Air India express) CASK below 6E? Air India is in a price war with Indigo. Notice from the below link that AI express is competing by discounting to Indigo! (Indigo has better reliability and higher customer satisfaction that boosts RASK vs. the competition). In other words, Air India is in a price war for its very survival versus a profitable competitor with incredible cash reserves (13+ crore rupees) who can be dismissive of poor lease term offerings (Indigo is selectively buying outright aircraft, including all ATRs if they are unable to secure great lease terms).

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indigo- ... es-1858257

The GoI is going to have a HUGE amount of debt they must acquire. Much more than if they had sold AI in chunks under more reasonable terms. When is too much too much?
It is so ironic reading through posts from 6 months to a year ago on the Air India divestment. We'll just say I was too much of an optimist on multiple fronts.


Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Again, debt guarantees are the same as subsidies. The GoI is on the hook for that debt.
Or are you stating that AI is no longer receiving debt guarantees they were receiving? If that has stopped, I can retract my statement. Otherwise, every penny of AI debt is in reality GoI debt effecting GoI bond ratings. Where India is in the development curve, the government should be borrowing for infrastructure (which I include education as well as water, medical, power, roads/rail, and airports).

Lightsaber

I posted in the past, GoI doesn't guarantee entire debt, just $5 Million per 787 x 21.= $105 Million guarantee.
Real estate is collateral for working capital loans taken from Indian PSBs. No government guarantee.
The ~6,000 crores of 26,000 crores bailout includes government guaranteed bonds, held buy government owned banks

In 2018 AI took $580 Million loans for VVIP planes, can't GoI pay that amount itself.

In 12 years AI got $3.3Billion ie., on average $230 Million per year.
AI paying $500-$600 Million every year.as taxes, duties, interest to PSBs. back to GoI


Off-topic but you keep quoting education, water (potable & irrigation) medical and power every time. I will give few examples how India is spending

FYI: When Oil went down from $120/BBL to $40/BBL Indian government didn't pass on the savings to customers, it kept all the money.

Indian Institute of Technology - 50 Crores
All India Institute of Medical Sciences - 6 Crores
Major irrigation dam which provides irrigation/drinking water - 1,500 crores
It will take 30 years to complete some of these projects at this rate.

Compare those to spending on fancy projects
300 Mile High-Speed Rail - 100,000 Cr
Dholera Special Investment Region (6x Shanghai) - 98,000 Cr
Unity Statue - 4,300 Crores
VVIP Planes - 4,400 Crores (on AI debt)
GoI advertising - 4,300 Crores

dtw2hyd wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

...
Can you provide a link to something that says what you said? I did read "per CAG recomendation" but that's not a source I can use. Did they write some document that says that spending $1B would save $3.3B? Which document? Where?

There are only a handful of CAG/PAC reports on civil aviation. All contain depositions from several sources. There are also books published on this topic. Should be easy to find the source.

So that means "no".

You wrote something. It seems wrong. I ask for a source. You tell me no. This is not the first time.

Total government subsidy into Air India:
"Over 40,000 crore"
https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes. ... air-india/

More recent subsidy:
The government will infuse Rs 1,800 crore from the 2017-18 Union budget, after pumping in close to Rs 24,000 crore between April 2012 and March 2016, from taxpayers’ money.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business ... xKLtI.html

Government guarantee of AI debt:
As of March 2017 the government guaranteed or partially guaranteed 36,312 crore.
Page 57 of http://www.civilaviation.gov.in/sites/d ... RANDUM.pdf

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Again, debt guarantees are the same as subsidies. The GoI is on the hook for that debt.
Or are you stating that AI is no longer receiving debt guarantees they were receiving? If that has stopped, I can retract my statement. Otherwise, every penny of AI debt is in reality GoI debt effecting GoI bond ratings. Where India is in the development curve, the government should be borrowing for infrastructure (which I include education as well as water, medical, power, roads/rail, and airports).

Lightsaber

I posted in the past, GoI doesn't guarantee entire debt, just $5 Million per 787 x 21.= $105 Million guarantee.

Can you explain how what you wrote is in agreement with the Government of India's information they offered during the bidding for Air India.
Page 57. It seems to say that Government of India has lots of loan guarantees for Air India, and not just $5M each for some 787s. It seems to say the Government of India has also helped with "Short Term Working Capital" loans and others.

http://www.civilaviation.gov.in/sites/d ... RANDUM.pdf

Huh, I found other loan guarantees
22,500 crore: https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 077_1.html
Then 3,250 emergency loan guarantee just last year: https://www.ibtimes.co.in/air-india-wan ... cit-741997

Let's see, last link notes Air India isn't able to borrow without guarantees (excluding loans backed by aircraft, I assume). I know politics will keep them from being shut down soon, but they should be. They are like SAA, Alitalia, and Pakistan airways (managed for subsidies).

Seriously, please answer the question of what AI will do next year as Indigo, Spicejet, and GoAir go on an expansion? An expansion with such lower CASK there simply is no way for AI to make a profit when they must sell at a discount to Indigo and others for the same service just means Air India's cost structure is non-viable. I'm an aviation fan. I strongly believe India aviation is the greatest growth story as yet unwritten. A subsidized competitor just hurts the true companies.

We should be discussing the next stage: How to wind down AI.
They simply aren't ready for what is coming their way the next 19 months. No state owned enterprise could adapt fast enough.
Air India had a recovery after the Kingfisher collapse, but now?
The GoAir stall in market share should be over thanks to NEO deliveries.
Spicejet paid of operating debt and is now ready for market share growth.
The Indigo stall in market share climb that the NEO problems caused is over.


from: https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/18/indig ... g-airline/

Lightsaber

Just for reminders, the audit of the losses:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... ZxrfN.html

National carrier Air India incurred a loss of Rs 321 crore in 2015-16 instead of an operating profit of Rs 105 crore that the airline declared last October, officials with the comptroller and auditor general (CAG) said on Friday.

Also, a CAG report tabled in Parliament says the carrier understated losses to the tune of Rs 6,415 crore in three years from 2012.

Understating losses... my oh my. By $65 million USD in one year, by much more over multiple years. My... if I do with past exchange rates, understated losses by a cool $1 billion USD.

So what next?

Late edit:
"Average air fares fell by 18 per cent in 2017 over average air fare in 2015, making air travel more affordable for everyone," Prabhu tweeted.

"Indian scheduled airlines carried more than 120 million domestic passengers during FY18 as against 61 million in FY14, recording growth of 19 per cent CAGR. Strategic policies resulting in enabling more Indians to fly than ever before," he said in a separate tweet.
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 487_1.html

kitplane01 wrote:

...
Can you explain how what you wrote is in agreement with the Government of India's information they offered during the bidding for Air India.
Page 57. It seems to say that Government of India has lots of loan guarantees for Air India, and not just $5M each for some 787s. It seems to say the Government of India has also helped with "Short Term Working Capital" loans and others.

http://www.civilaviation.gov.in/sites/d ... RANDUM.pdf

Aviation debt related example
To take one 787 delivery AI has to
1) Take a bridge loan AKA short term working capital loan for $110 Million (after 2014 with sovereign guarantee)
2) Take delivery
3) Apply for US EXIM loan guarantee
4) Once US EXIM approves loan guarantee, start sale-and-lease back
5) Complete sale-lease-back (with $5 Million sovereign guarantee, rest is insured frame guarantee)

So the $110 Million guarantee(for post 2014 deliveries) at Step 1 gets converted into a $5 Million guarantee with SLB complete. Because it has US EXIM guarantee and $5 Million soverign guarantee for lease+lease-end condition, it gets the best rates in the world say at 3%

Working capital related debt example
Say AI needs $200 Million working capital loan.
It cannot get it from say Goldman Sachs, because RBI limits external commercial borrowing, so it has to get those from State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank or Bank of Baroda ...and who owns these banks???
So it goes to SBI,PNB or BoB, they need collateral, AI puts up $400 Million worth HQ as collateral and takes $200 Million loan at 15%. This is another shackle to sell to real estate.

Lender - GoI owned Indian Public sector banks
Borrower - GoI owned airline
Guarantor - Is GoI??? on top of AI real estate collateral

Bottom line GoI has no money or enough borrowing power to provide basic necessities, thinking it guarantees AI to the extent of $$Billions is chasing ghosts.

It is not some global bank harming AI, it is its own sister banks, because artificially generating revenue for failing PSBs is more important to GoI than AI's finances or image.

dtw2hyd wrote:

In 12 years AI got $3.3Billion ie., on average $230 Million per year.
AI paying $500-$600 Million every year.as taxes, duties, interest to PSBs. back to GoI

DTW at his best again.

AI is not 'IT' industry. It has to pay its taxes and excise duties like other industries. AI is no longer a 'govt.' department. It has to pay aviation related taxes like other airlines.

Only IT industry is exempt from paying taxes. You might reasonably question that. Since you dont, it makes me wonder if you are a cyber coolie.

vadodara wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

In 12 years AI got $3.3Billion ie., on average $230 Million per year.
AI paying $500-$600 Million every year.as taxes, duties, interest to PSBs. back to GoI

DTW at his best again.

AI is not 'IT' industry. It has to pay its taxes and excise duties like other industries. AI is no longer a 'govt.' department. It has to pay aviation related taxes like other airlines.

Only IT industry is exempt from paying taxes. You might reasonably question that. Since you dont, it makes me wonder if you are a cyber coolie.

Whatsapp University, Saraswati Vidya Mandir or Khilji's Education Academy comprehension skills???

Where did I say AI shouldn't pay taxes and duties?

I have no idea how much taxes,duties IT coolies, tea sellers and fritter fryers pay in India.

Point is, no global business should pay 15% for working capital loans, 40% duty on ATF and 50% taxes on MRO.

Indian tax payers pay on average $230M to AI and get back $600 Million every year. Shutdown AI, both will go.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Indian tax payers pay on average $230M to AI and get back $600 Million every year. Shutdown AI, both will go.

So let's do it!

dtw2hyd wrote:

Whatsapp University, Saraswati Vidya Mandir or Khilji's Education Academy comprehension skills???

Hyderebad based, Satyam University!

vadodara wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Indian tax payers pay on average $230M to AI and get back $600 Million every year. Shutdown AI, both will go.

So let's do it!

Malik is resting after out-of-sequence transplant, give some time, he will shut it down AI as soon as he recovers.

vadodara wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Whatsapp University, Saraswati Vidya Mandir or Khilji's Education Academy comprehension skills???

Hyderebad based, Satyam University!

Keep guessing

dtw2hyd wrote:

vadodara wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Indian tax payers pay on average $230M to AI and get back $600 Million every year. Shutdown AI, both will go.

So let's do it!

Malik is resting after out-of-sequence transplant, give some time, he will shut it down AI as soon as he recovers.

So we finally have an agreement! Govt. should step out and let Air India to Malik's devices. He (or she) will fix the issue. Most resourceful Air India employee.

This will also save dtw some embarassement of actually producing some data.

Btw, was Malik also the pilot who sucked in one of the ground handling guys in the engine?

I presented more data than anybody on this thread. I am not going to spoon feed someone who will in turn argue with me.

If someone believes AI need to be shutdown present accurate numbers and your own analysis, not some randomly googled articles from Indian media outlets and AIG math, ie., counting same dollars multiple times.

Also one should realize there are three numbers for every transaction in a parliamentary democracy. Requested, allocated in budget and actually paid in that financial year. In a given year if AI asks GoI for 4,300 Crores, GoI allots 2,500 crores in the budget but actually pays only 2,000 crores. There will be three different news reports at different times in the year with different number with for same financial year. Using AIG math, that is 10,800 crores where as the actual number is 2,000 crores.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Indian tax payers pay on average $230M to AI and get back $600 Million every year. Shutdown AI, both will go.

Gosh that's false.

(1) The Indian government has given AI 28,000 crore since April 2012. That's over $600 million per year. Plus additional significant loan guarantees.


(2) Shut down AI, and then other airlines will pick up the traffic. They will pay the taxes, but not need the subsidy. That's better.

dtw2hyd wrote:

I presented more data than anybody on this thread. I am not going to spoon feed someone who will in turn argue with me.

That's exactly it. When you post numbers, they are often wrong. Instead, what you write is contradicted by people like the Hindustan Time and the Government of India. And when I ask for a cite, I don't get one. Multiple times.

dtw2hyd wrote:

If someone believes AI need to be shutdown present accurate numbers and your own analysis, not some randomly googled articles from Indian media outlets and AIG math, ie., counting same dollars multiple times.

Also one should realize there are three numbers for every transaction in a parliamentary democracy. Requested, allocated in budget and actually paid in that financial year. In a given year if AI asks GoI for 4,300 Crores, GoI allots 2,500 crores in the budget but actually pays only 2,000 crores. There will be three different news reports at different times in the year with different number with for same financial year. Using AIG math, that is 10,800 crores where as the actual number is 2,000 crores.

The effect you note is real, but that's an error one can avoid.

I have decided I'll believe the government of India and the Hindustan Times over you, especially when I ask you for a source and I don't get one.

kitplane01 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Indian tax payers pay on average $230M to AI and get back $600 Million every year. Shutdown AI, both will go.

Gosh that's false.

(1) The Indian government has given AI 28,000 crore since April 2012. That's over $600 million per year. Plus additional significant loan guarantees..

Give details for 28,000 crores by year or accept that number is wrong. Don't keep saying my numbers are false without you presenting different number.

2011-12 - 1200 cr
2012-13 - 4000 cr
2013-14 - 5000 cr
2014-15 - 5500 cr
2015-16 - 2500 cr
2016-17 - 1800 cr
2017-18 - 650 cr

Here are typical 787 bridge loan and SLB transactions. These RFP are for AI 787s #22 and #23.

Bridge Loan - Read clause 8, No GoI guarantee
http://mmd.airindia.co.in/aimmd/tender/ ... 20Loan.pdf

SLB RFP - Read clause 8. GoI guarantee capped at $5 Million
http://mmd.airindia.co.in/aimmd/tender/ ... 20B787.pdf

dtw2hyd wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Indian tax payers pay on average $230M to AI and get back $600 Million every year. Shutdown AI, both will go.

Gosh that's false.

(1) The Indian government has given AI 28,000 crore since April 2012. That's over $600 million per year. Plus additional significant loan guarantees..

Give details for 28,000 crores by year or accept that number is wrong. Don't keep saying my numbers are false without you presenting different number.

2011-12 - 1200 cr
2012-13 - 4000 cr
2013-14 - 5000 cr
2014-15 - 5500 cr
2015-16 - 2500 cr
2016-17 - 1800 cr
2017-18 - 650 cr

I don't have to give the details by year. Instead I'll give a cite (one I've already given). https://www.hindustantimes.com/business ... xKLtI.html. And a quote: "The government will infuse Rs 1,800 crore from the 2017-18 Union budget, after pumping in close to Rs 24,000 crore between April 2012 and March 2016, from taxpayers’ money. ".

I'm gonna believe the Hindustan Times over some chart that you just typed in with no attribution.

This is my central claim. You type a bunch of stuff. When I look it up its contradicted by reasonable sources. And when I ask for a citation for your data .. nothing.

I'm gonna believe the Hindustan Times over some chart that you just typed in with no attribution.

As per the CAG report of 2016, Rs 22,280 crores were infused into AI till 2015-2016. Please look at page 8 of the report.

2011-12 - 1200
2012-13 - 6000
2013-14 - 6000
2014-15 - 5780
2015-16 - 3300

Here is another view on how AI accumulated debt starting 2006 and when equity infusion started.



https://imgur.com/a/K50V1sQ

Well past is past for AI. For now onwards, any VVIP plan should be bought by GoI itself or if AI is buying, AI should make sure it is making a small profit on that transaction. Also on any debt payment, it is better to make the minimum purchase and in addition GoI should force the Indian banks to accept reduced interest (restructuring the loans, which is quite common for large borrowers). After this is done, may be in a year or two, AI could be attractive to some buyer.

hohd wrote:

Well past is past for AI. For now onwards, any VVIP plan should be bought by GoI itself or if AI is buying, AI should make sure it is making a small profit on that transaction. Also on any debt payment, it is better to make the minimum purchase and in addition GoI should force the Indian banks to accept reduced interest (restructuring the loans, which is quite common for large borrowers). After this is done, may be in a year or two, AI could be attractive to some buyer.

That is just wishful thinking. For VVIP planes AI got $400 Million from Abu Dhabi Bank and $180 Million loan from GoI's own National Small Savings Fund.

GoI doesn't even pay bills.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 257449.cms

Indian PSBs lost $12 Billion last year. That is just the tip of the iceberg. Why would they take a haircut from $600 Million AI interest payment?

GoI should shutdown AI, it will take down SBI, PNB and/or BoB. Let private banks pick up the slack and Indian financial system will get better. Let AI be the sacrificial goat.

NZ321 wrote:

BawliBooch wrote:

Should Air India be sold off in a hurry? Of course not! But can Air India be sold off next year? Sure there is a way!

The most practical way is to split off the Air India assets - give Ajay Singh(SpiceJet) the International operations along with the slots. Give the Bhatia-Gangwal's AI's engine workshops & Training Establishments. Split off Air India Express and rename it "INDIAN AIRLINES" which will be the state-owned airline. The reborn 'Indian Airlines' can expand domestically with their fleet of 737-800's on a fresh note and allow the Govt to retain a key instrument of state policy. Cronies rewarded. Reformer image refurbished. Govt remains in Aviation business. WIN, WIN & WIN!

If Jaitley was the one driving it, this most sensible option would have been the approach. But unfortunately it will be a sound & light show with a big announcement, a spectacle on national television and a PR campaign to whitewash the disaster - much like what we saw with Demonetisation & GST.

I like your thinking. Fully agree. Split Air India up and offer it on the plate piece by piece and then the banks are happy. Re-igniting Indian Airlines is an interesting idea.

Its not my idea @NZ321 sir! I just suggested the most practical way to sell off Air India right now. But that is not what this govt will do because contrary to what some "faithful" are saying here, the intent is not there. The only thing this govt knows is to make a sound and light show on everything (like with demonetization) and that way is disaster. And that is exactly what happened. A demonetization style, overnight announcement of shutting down Air India followed by a piecemeal sale could still happen. However with General Elections just a year away and back to back losses in state elections and bypolls have shown the govt has lost the political capital to do so. The Govt is technically in a minority right now. Key political allies like Shiv Sena party are on the warpath - important because Shiv Sena controls the most powerful Air India unions.

The most sensible course of action fetching max returns to the Govt kitty, would be to announce a 5 year restructure plan followed by a offloading stake in tranches on the stock exchange. However that will have to wait for the next govt.

kitplane01 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

...
Can you provide a link to something that says what you said? I did read "per CAG recomendation" but that's not a source I can use. Did they write some document that says that spending $1B would save $3.3B? Which document? Where?

There are only a handful of CAG/PAC reports on civil aviation. All contain depositions from several sources. There are also books published on this topic. Should be easy to find the source.

So that means "no".

You wrote something. It seems wrong. I ask for a source. You tell me no. This is not the first time.

Total government subsidy into Air India:
"Over 40,000 crore"
https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes. ... air-india/

More recent subsidy:
The government will infuse Rs 1,800 crore from the 2017-18 Union budget, after pumping in close to Rs 24,000 crore between April 2012 and March 2016, from taxpayers’ money.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business ... xKLtI.html

Government guarantee of AI debt:
As of March 2017 the government guaranteed or partially guaranteed 36,312 crore.
Page 57 of http://www.civilaviation.gov.in/sites/d ... RANDUM.pdf

Take what you read in the Indian owned media with a bucket-load of salt. As the recent Cobrapost expose on fakenews showed, much of the baniya media has a problem with credibility having chosen to become an extension of the govt propaganda machine.

Note how many of these articles dont mention the journalist. Many of these articles/blogs are actually ghost written by industry players like CAPA. Atleast one airline CEO active on Social media is well known for writing many of these puff-pieces all of which selectively cherry pick data to prove their point.

Go to the source - download and analyse the CAG reports and the airlines own account books. When you do that you realise how Air India is not so much the bad guy here and has actually performed quite decently despite being forced to fight with its hands tied behind its back. Study the accounts of the private airlines and you will see how the picture is not so rosy as some here like to believe. Indigo is one bad cycle away from turning into a Kingfisher part 2. SpiceJet is the worst off being stretched too thin on cash flow - literally a week away from total shutdown. "The faithful" have short memories - this has happened to Spice before. And they want Indigo/Spice to takeover from AI!

Interesting read on Mint. Basically, the rise in oil prices decreased the value of Jet Airways by about half. Also, the required fuel surcharge or fare increase is expected to reduce demand, so no India airline is wanting to expand by that amount now.

My thought is that the Air India offer impossed so many constraints that exposed the buyer to such future payments that Air India is worth less than the tangible assets.

Lightsaber
Corrected Link:. https://www.livemint.com/Money/VEjnPz1o ... =googleamp

lightsaber wrote:

My thought is that the Air India offer impossed so many constraints that exposed the buyer to such future payments that Air India is worth less than the tangible assets.

Well, the way I see it, the Air India offer was specifically structured to benefit 2 cronies who could not bite. It was doomed from the start.

Looks like GoI dusting off cold cases to teach TATAs a lesson.
My take, once all complaints are filed by CBI, new EoI request will be released, Either TATAs should buy AI or deal with legal hassles.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Looks like GoI dusting off cold cases to teach TATAs a lesson.
My take, once all complaints are filed by CBI, new EoI request will be released, Either TATAs should buy AI or deal with legal hassles.

Interesting. So, for a foreigner, who is not fully immersed into that process, the situation, as you describe it, is like this: (and please correct me where I'm wrong):

1) GoI decides to privatize Air India
2) Privatization terms are supposedly tailored to profit a crony, specific crony (let's call it "T" for short)
2a) massive screams of corruption, favoritism towards "T", political agony and drama abound
3) Privatization fails: no-one bites, including "T"
4) GoI is pulling out a gun, Luca Brazzi-style pointing it to the head of "T", and suggesting that it's "an offer you cannot refuse".

Am I correct?

Air India needs help with an urgent 10 billion rupee loan!

Wow, no wonder no bids. When does it end? As noted, prior to the jet fuel price spike, AI is expected to lose $2 billion over the next two years. There should be a major cost cutting concession before more loan guarantees.

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-embattled ... t-loan.amp
Air India has failed to pay staff their salaries on time for the past three months, according to multiple news reports.

Oops. If AI was privately owned, they would be allowed to fail.

This loan is probably good for only about three months too!

Oh, AI also asked for 2,000 crore more subsidy. I'm past words. This needs to end:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 5.html/amp

Clearly AI needs to be either shut down and let another airline take over the market or alternatively do some serious restructuring. If I were running the show I would sell some slots to generate some cash, cut back as much as possible on personell and do whatever else to lower expenses but this is definitely getting out of hand.

Pilots threatening to not cooperate do to non-payment of salary.

Errr... Someone translate that for me. It sounds like a non-issue.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL3N1TA4AW

lightsaber wrote:

Oh, AI also asked for 2,000 crore more subsidy. I'm past words. This needs to end:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 5.html/amp

Read it properly - funding != subsidy. Not always.

As per the original restructuring & sale program created by the former Finance Minister and later President, Pranab Mukherjee, AI was to receive approx 3-4000 crores per annum till 2019 based on hitting performance targets.

Since 2014, with a change in govt, AI has not been receiving this amount even though it has met its agreed performance targets.

If AI was to claim true market price for the services it renders to the GoI, (keeping 4 A32S aircraft on permanent standby for emergencies, Tier-3 routes, VVIP charters, military charters and so on, it would work out to more than 4K per year.

Taxpayer subsidising Air India?

Phosphorus wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Looks like GoI dusting off cold cases to teach TATAs a lesson.
My take, once all complaints are filed by CBI, new EoI request will be released, Either TATAs should buy AI or deal with legal hassles.

Interesting. So, for a foreigner, who is not fully immersed into that process, the situation, as you describe it, is like this: (and please correct me where I'm wrong):

1) GoI decides to privatize Air India
2) Privatization terms are supposedly tailored to profit a crony, specific crony (let's call it "T" for short)
2a) massive screams of corruption, favoritism towards "T", political agony and drama abound
3) Privatization fails: no-one bites, including "T"
4) GoI is pulling out a gun, Luca Brazzi-style pointing it to the head of "T", and suggesting that it's "an offer you cannot refuse".

Am I correct?

"T" are not the crony of choice. "T" are being fixed to keep them in line and prevent them from funding the resurgent opposition camp.

The chosen cronies are the Bhatia's & Ajay Singh.

BawliBooch wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Oh, AI also asked for 2,000 crore more subsidy. I'm past words. This needs to end:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 5.html/amp

Read it properly - funding != subsidy. Not always.

This time ... yes. These are subsidies to keep a failing airline afloat.

And in general, the GoI says it subsidies Air India. I believe them.

BawliBooch wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Oh, AI also asked for 2,000 crore more subsidy. I'm past words. This needs to end:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india ... 5.html/amp

Read it properly - funding != subsidy. Not always.

As per the original restructuring & sale program created by the former Finance Minister and later President, Pranab Mukherjee, AI was to receive approx 3-4000 crores per annum till 2019 based on hitting performance targets.

Since 2014, with a change in govt, AI has not been receiving this amount even though it has met its agreed performance targets.

If AI was to claim true market price for the services it renders to the GoI, (keeping 4 A32S aircraft on permanent standby for emergencies, Tier-3 routes, VVIP charters, military charters and so on, it would work out to more than 4K per year.

Taxpayer subsidising Air India?

Phosphorus wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Looks like GoI dusting off cold cases to teach TATAs a lesson.
My take, once all complaints are filed by CBI, new EoI request will be released, Either TATAs should buy AI or deal with legal hassles.

Interesting. So, for a foreigner, who is not fully immersed into that process, the situation, as you describe it, is like this: (and please correct me where I'm wrong):

1) GoI decides to privatize Air India
2) Privatization terms are supposedly tailored to profit a crony, specific crony (let's call it "T" for short)
2a) massive screams of corruption, favoritism towards "T", political agony and drama abound
3) Privatization fails: no-one bites, including "T"
4) GoI is pulling out a gun, Luca Brazzi-style pointing it to the head of "T", and suggesting that it's "an offer you cannot refuse".

Am I correct?

"T" are not the crony of choice. "T" are being fixed to keep them in line and prevent them from funding the resurgent opposition camp.

The chosen cronies are the Bhatia's & Ajay Singh.

As noted, bailout package=subsidy.

There seems to be a need to find some reasons to blame people who wouldn't bid. That isn't the problem. It is a DECADE+ of corruption and mismanagement that is so deep set, the much tougher market of the next 18 months isn't a test AI is ready for.

I'm still at a loss for words how much more money is going to be thrown at AI.

Lightsaber

Only on ANet you will see AI apologists perform ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify wasting taxpayer funds on an airline that would have been shut down ages ago in any functional market driven economy.