Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
freakyrat wrote:EWR-FWA does not have the proper Load Factors to break even. They need a 70% load factor every flight to break even and aren't even getting that. SBN averages over 80% with 40-45 people per flight.
freakyrat wrote:Now for speculation. What jets are they going to use in SBN? They would have to use CRJ9's or E175's for Dallas because they can fill those seats and FWA uses CRJ9's, for CLT I do not know.
flyinryan99 wrote:FWAERJ wrote:flyinryan99 wrote:
Can they? The flights are being downguaged to CR7s this spring. Probably the more appropriate aircraft for the mission.
There’s also the SkyWest factor - they fly the CR7 (not the CR9), have a DFW crew base, and have a FWA maintenance base that is now maintaining the larger CRJs.
Nice try...I’ve been told by multiple different sources that route performance is why it’s downguaged. Lucky to get PHL back because of state wide tax incentives.
jetskipper wrote:freakyrat wrote:Now for speculation. What jets are they going to use in SBN? They would have to use CRJ9's or E175's for Dallas because they can fill those seats and FWA uses CRJ9's, for CLT I do not know.
Looks like it’s is going to be 2 CRJ-700s a day to each CLT and DFW. More lift than I had expected.
jetskipper wrote:Not any groundbreaking information but a confirmation that the airport is trying to attract international passenger and cargo flights.
https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/b ... abc50.html
freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
IndyHoosier wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
Just curious, is there really that much demand to justify such a flight?
freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
alancostello wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
alancostello wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
uconn99 wrote:alancostello wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
Aer Lingus into South Bend? I doubt that would happen and you can't compare SBN to BDL, completely different markets. Also, the Aer Lingus BDL-DUB flight began as 4x weekly in the fall/winter went daily in spring and summer, nothing has changed and the flight at the moment is 4x weekly and will go back to daily in the spring.
Midwestindy wrote:alancostello wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
Not a chance
freakyrat wrote:Midwestindy wrote:alancostello wrote:
As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
Not a chance
Never say Never. You never know what Notre Dame has up their sleeve. I feel the University had a say in bringing American back to South Bend as their students and employees of companies like Zimmer Biomet do a lot of travellng to Texas. Notre Dame being in the ACC also does a lot of business and travel to the Carolinas. The Newark flight on United is especially popular with students from the East Coast. Notre Dame has a significant amount of students from the Boston area who use this flight as their connection. Right now according to DOT reports 20 or so passengers daily out of South Bend connect to Boston. if that would double it would be highly likely for Delta to run a daily regional jet flight from South Bend to Boston
Midwestindy wrote:freakyrat wrote:Midwestindy wrote:
Not a chance
Never say Never. You never know what Notre Dame has up their sleeve. I feel the University had a say in bringing American back to South Bend as their students and employees of companies like Zimmer Biomet do a lot of travellng to Texas. Notre Dame being in the ACC also does a lot of business and travel to the Carolinas. The Newark flight on United is especially popular with students from the East Coast. Notre Dame has a significant amount of students from the Boston area who use this flight as their connection. Right now according to DOT reports 20 or so passengers daily out of South Bend connect to Boston. if that would double it would be highly likely for Delta to run a daily regional jet flight from South Bend to Boston
On the topic of SBN-Europe, Notre Dame isn't a large multinational corporation, they are a university. They can't singlehandedly make a route work...even if an airline is looking for a secondary airport for Chicago, RFD, MKE, or GYY make more sense.
freakyrat wrote:Midwestindy wrote:freakyrat wrote:
Never say Never. You never know what Notre Dame has up their sleeve. I feel the University had a say in bringing American back to South Bend as their students and employees of companies like Zimmer Biomet do a lot of travellng to Texas. Notre Dame being in the ACC also does a lot of business and travel to the Carolinas. The Newark flight on United is especially popular with students from the East Coast. Notre Dame has a significant amount of students from the Boston area who use this flight as their connection. Right now according to DOT reports 20 or so passengers daily out of South Bend connect to Boston. if that would double it would be highly likely for Delta to run a daily regional jet flight from South Bend to Boston
On the topic of SBN-Europe, Notre Dame isn't a large multinational corporation, they are a university. They can't singlehandedly make a route work...even if an airline is looking for a secondary airport for Chicago, RFD, MKE, or GYY make more sense.
Agree with you somewhat but a 90 minute or less express South Shore connection to downtown Chicago could make a flight like this feasable.
On the subject of International flights out of South Bend though, flights to Cancun and the Bahamas do make sense on a carrier like Allegiant, Sun Country or Spirit as the airport has surveys from the surounding area that show that the flights would be successful. For example DOT studies show 15000 passengers yearly fly from the Michiana area to Cancun. That's enough to fill two Allegiant Airbus A319 flights per week.
adam47150 wrote:When thinking about Notre Dame, you also have to remember that they are not just the University. They are also the Congregation of Holy Cross and the Sisters of the Holy Cross who also run St. Mary's College. ND is also the primary Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross. So, one entity may not be able to generate enough traffic for a TATL flight, but the entire related group (as well as the local demand generated) could be enough to add at least once a week service some time down the road.
adam47150 wrote:When thinking about Notre Dame, you also have to remember that they are not just the University. They are also the Congregation of Holy Cross and the Sisters of the Holy Cross who also run St. Mary's College. ND is also the primary Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross. So, one entity may not be able to generate enough traffic for a TATL flight, but the entire related group (as well as the local demand generated) could be enough to add at least once a week service some time down the road.
freakyrat wrote:The airport has the data on Cancun trips. The Boston info came out of a DOT that tracks in demand city pairs at air carrier airports and it was brought up on this group by others.
freakyrat wrote:adam47150 wrote:When thinking about Notre Dame, you also have to remember that they are not just the University. They are also the Congregation of Holy Cross and the Sisters of the Holy Cross who also run St. Mary's College. ND is also the primary Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross. So, one entity may not be able to generate enough traffic for a TATL flight, but the entire related group (as well as the local demand generated) could be enough to add at least once a week service some time down the road.
The cost effective aircraft that could provide Dublin flights and has the range for them is the Airbus A331LR which isn't even in service yet and made it's first flight yesterday. A flight to Dublin is all total speculation at this point. Cancun and the Bahamas are in the works with Cancun most likely becoming the first International flights out of SBN. Flights to Toronto are also on the airports radar . The reason that Air Georgian didn't start those on behalf of Air Canada several years ago is because SBN didn't have Customs avialable. Even with pre-clearance at Toronto, US Customs is still required to be available at the US destination airport.
The airport built the FIS and GAF because they were approached first by Allegiant in regard to flights to Cancun. The GAF was built so that International corporate flights that operate into SBN could clear Customs in SBN instead of other border airports. Customs has cleared close to 50 GA flights since they have been open for business.
FWAERJ wrote:And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).
But there is something known as market stimulation. WN was famous for that in the 1980s and 1990s by offering fares on short hops that were competitive with driving, and when 9/11 hit, WN applied the same tactics to long flights. Even Herb said "we're not competing with other airlines, we're competing with ground transportation". In other words, the Southwest Effect often involved getting people of cars and into planes.
Then G4 changed the rules again. By offering service that only flew on peak days spaced around vacations and using used aircraft, leading to very inexpensive unbundled fares, G4 could offer a product that could compete on price with family road trips from small cities to leisure destinations. In other words, they didn't just let small airports compete with big ones to LAS, Phoenix, and Florida, but they made a lot of people end their road trip habit with a faster, cost-effective replacement. I know many here in FWA that stopped driving to Florida and MYR because G4 offered a product that was cost-competitive with driving and significantly faster. In other words, G4 changed age-old habits of piling a family into a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry that were very hard to break. Now, G4 is repeating the same successful tactic in midsize cities like IND and CVG with equally successful results.
Midwestindy wrote:FWAERJ wrote:And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).
But there is something known as market stimulation. WN was famous for that in the 1980s and 1990s by offering fares on short hops that were competitive with driving, and when 9/11 hit, WN applied the same tactics to long flights. Even Herb said "we're not competing with other airlines, we're competing with ground transportation". In other words, the Southwest Effect often involved getting people of cars and into planes.
Then G4 changed the rules again. By offering service that only flew on peak days spaced around vacations and using used aircraft, leading to very inexpensive unbundled fares, G4 could offer a product that could compete on price with family road trips from small cities to leisure destinations. In other words, they didn't just let small airports compete with big ones to LAS, Phoenix, and Florida, but they made a lot of people end their road trip habit with a faster, cost-effective replacement. I know many here in FWA that stopped driving to Florida and MYR because G4 offered a product that was cost-competitive with driving and significantly faster. In other words, G4 changed age-old habits of piling a family into a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry that were very hard to break. Now, G4 is repeating the same successful tactic in midsize cities like IND and CVG with equally successful results.
Midwestindy wrote:FWAERJ wrote:And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).
But there is something known as market stimulation. WN was famous for that in the 1980s and 1990s by offering fares on short hops that were competitive with driving, and when 9/11 hit, WN applied the same tactics to long flights. Even Herb said "we're not competing with other airlines, we're competing with ground transportation". In other words, the Southwest Effect often involved getting people of cars and into planes.
Then G4 changed the rules again. By offering service that only flew on peak days spaced around vacations and using used aircraft, leading to very inexpensive unbundled fares, G4 could offer a product that could compete on price with family road trips from small cities to leisure destinations. In other words, they didn't just let small airports compete with big ones to LAS, Phoenix, and Florida, but they made a lot of people end their road trip habit with a faster, cost-effective replacement. I know many here in FWA that stopped driving to Florida and MYR because G4 offered a product that was cost-competitive with driving and significantly faster. In other words, G4 changed age-old habits of piling a family into a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry that were very hard to break. Now, G4 is repeating the same successful tactic in midsize cities like IND and CVG with equally successful results.
Market stimulation is one thing, but why would SBN magically jump over the 70+ other MSAs(that could be stimulated as well) that aren't served nonstop from the Bahamas?
freakyrat wrote:I think what the feeling is about SBN-Europe is that in the next few years O'Hare is going to become saturated and gate constrained and the European ULCC carriers such as WOW Air, Norwegian and Rynair (if they decide to start TATL flights) are going to start looking at the secondary airports in the Chicago area with FIS's such as RFD, MKE and SBN to operate their limited services. MKE and SBN both have train connections into Chicago and RFD has bus connections. A long shot for SBN as most of SBN's Customs customers will be primarily GA flights and freight plus occasional charters and future seasonal G4 flights to the Yucatan. But airports always have to build for the future and be ready and all three airporta are.
FWAERJ wrote:And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).
Midwestindy wrote:alancostello wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
Not a chance
LupineChemist wrote:Midwestindy wrote:alancostello wrote:
As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
Not a chance
I could actually see a 2x weekly. Even as far away as Lake County would be a hell of a lot easier to use SBN than ORD. Could definitely see this being an attractive option not only for ND, but higher ups with Arcelor Mittal that want to get to/from the Michigan City plant. Whirlpool could also be a good corporate customer for that route to get to Europe.
freakyrat wrote:LupineChemist wrote:Midwestindy wrote:
Not a chance
I could actually see a 2x weekly. Even as far away as Lake County would be a hell of a lot easier to use SBN than ORD. Could definitely see this being an attractive option not only for ND, but higher ups with Arcelor Mittal that want to get to/from the Michigan City plant. Whirlpool could also be a good corporate customer for that route to get to Europe.
Rumor has it that Norwegian who gets their A321LR’s next year has been following the South Shore upgrades and the airport’s FIS with keen interest. Also it has been rumored that ND has been discussing Dublin service with another of Ireland’s ULCC carriers about providing these flights. That carrier would use a B737 MAX8 which would have to refuel in Iceland. These carriers know more of what is going on than we as the general public do.
IndyHoosier wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
Just curious, is there really that much demand to justify such a flight?
FlyingElvii wrote:IndyHoosier wrote:freakyrat wrote:Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
Just curious, is there really that much demand to justify such a flight?
Norwegian backdoor to Chicago/MWI without having to deal with the craziness and rep at GYY?
cleared2land wrote:Air cargo operators interested in international air freight at SBN. Looks like 2018 will be good to SBN. Article doesn't go into much detail but the writing is on the wall.
http://www.wndu.com/content/news/StJose ... 66293.html
jetskipper wrote:cleared2land wrote:Air cargo operators interested in international air freight at SBN. Looks like 2018 will be good to SBN. Article doesn't go into much detail but the writing is on the wall.
http://www.wndu.com/content/news/StJose ... 66293.html
I suppose I don’t understand how this is a logistic advantage. They mention east coast in the article, if they want goods on the east coast wouldn’t they just ship them directly to the east coast? It will be interesting to see what materializes out of this if anything.
cleared2land wrote:jetskipper wrote:cleared2land wrote:Air cargo operators interested in international air freight at SBN. Looks like 2018 will be good to SBN. Article doesn't go into much detail but the writing is on the wall.
http://www.wndu.com/content/news/StJose ... 66293.html
I suppose I don’t understand how this is a logistic advantage. They mention east coast in the article, if they want goods on the east coast wouldn’t they just ship them directly to the east coast? It will be interesting to see what materializes out of this if anything.
I think part of the issue is non-airport people talking about stuff they don't know enough about. I'm interested to see what further developments occur at SBN this year. It really seems that the authority is putting major effort and money into campaigns to decrease leakage and get businesses and citizens to use SBN on all fronts.