What's Next For TPA (Route Wise)?--2018

axiom · Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:27 am

FlyerTalkUserNa wrote:
PDX or Central America makes the most sense to me. I’m not confident enough in the performance of our TATLs to root for another one.

Where in Central America?

BOG is the only southerly destination that I think has a near term chance -- iirc TPA is the largest unserved US O&D route from BOG.

I'm also surprised that TPA hasn't landed a seasonal flight to YYC. We can take multiple 767s from YYZ for half the year, but not 20-30 737 flights a season on WestJet?

Midwestindy · Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:52 am

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
NK announced 4x weekly TPA-PHL beginning in December.

TBBJ and TPA Airport Twitter hinting at "announcements" of new routes in next couple of weeks.

PDX maybe and a INTL flight? Really exited to see what's to come.

https://twitter.com/TBBJFrances/status/ ... 7514019840

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/ne ... -more.html
"TIA is targeting several new international destinations, including three in Europe — Manchester, England; Amsterdam; and Dublin, Ireland; and three in Latin America — Bogota, Colombia; Mexico City and Lima, Peru."

As I outlined over on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389993&p=20376327&hilit=aer+lingus+us#p20376327
I'm 90% sure TPA-DUB will be announced soon

DL is also really interested in adding TPA-AMS as well, so that should be interesting to watch.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were announcements from DL and F9 as well

Flyingstump · Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:54 am

Midwestindy wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
NK announced 4x weekly TPA-PHL beginning in December.

TBBJ and TPA Airport Twitter hinting at "announcements" of new routes in next couple of weeks.

PDX maybe and a INTL flight? Really exited to see what's to come.

https://twitter.com/TBBJFrances/status/ ... 7514019840

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/ne ... -more.html
"TIA is targeting several new international destinations, including three in Europe — Manchester, England; Amsterdam; and Dublin, Ireland; and three in Latin America — Bogota, Colombia; Mexico City and Lima, Peru."

As I outlined over on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389993&p=20376327&hilit=aer+lingus+us#p20376327
I'm 90% sure TPA-DUB will be announced soon

DL is also really interested in adding TPA-AMS as well, so that should be interesting to watch.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were announcements from DL and F9 as well

I think DL would add SEA before it adds AMS.

As for international destination, I think the most likely destination is Manchester. Something like 2x-3x weekly similar to how WK started ZRH. Either Virgin or a leisure airline can market the Tampa Bay area as a vacation destination from Manchester. Although I would more than welcome Dublin, DUB seems to be more of a connecting hub play (EI shuttling passengers to and from Europe through DUB), and this is less attractive with FI already established in this way (and increasing flights)...but I'll eagerly anticipate and hope for the announcement of DUB regardless!

Midwestindy · Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:53 am

Flyingstump wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
NK announced 4x weekly TPA-PHL beginning in December.

TBBJ and TPA Airport Twitter hinting at "announcements" of new routes in next couple of weeks.

PDX maybe and a INTL flight? Really exited to see what's to come.

https://twitter.com/TBBJFrances/status/ ... 7514019840

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/ne ... -more.html
"TIA is targeting several new international destinations, including three in Europe — Manchester, England; Amsterdam; and Dublin, Ireland; and three in Latin America — Bogota, Colombia; Mexico City and Lima, Peru."

As I outlined over on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389993&p=20376327&hilit=aer+lingus+us#p20376327
I'm 90% sure TPA-DUB will be announced soon

DL is also really interested in adding TPA-AMS as well, so that should be interesting to watch.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were announcements from DL and F9 as well

I think DL would add SEA before it adds AMS.

As for international destination, I think the most likely destination is Manchester. Something like 2x-3x weekly similar to how WK started ZRH. Either Virgin or a leisure airline can market the Tampa Bay area as a vacation destination from Manchester. Although I would more than welcome Dublin, DUB seems to be more of a connecting hub play (EI shuttling passengers to and from Europe through DUB), and this is less attractive with FI already established in this way (and increasing flights)...but I'll eagerly anticipate and hope for the announcement of DUB regardless!

I wouldn't be too sure, I know DL just announced IND-CDG before they announced IND-SEA, so it is very possible that they could announce AMS then SEA or both at the same time.

Virgin wouldn't be surprising either, considering they serve MCO and BOS, TPA is likely pretty high on their list of next possible US destinations. MT could be another possibility as well...

Should be interesting if/when EI announces TPA, especially how it will affect FI's flights to Iceland considering both offer similar service and EI would also likely rely on connections.

axiom · Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:16 am

EI does have a value proposition that FI doesn't in that it has much stronger feed from smaller U.K. cities. This is a huge and underserved market to TPA.

rajincajun01 · Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:18 pm

Norwegian has a lot of 787s laying around this upcoming winter. CDG could be a possibility with them as well.

FLYKTPA · Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:26 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
Norwegian has a lot of 787s laying around this upcoming winter. CDG could be a possibility with them as well.

TPA-CDG demand peaks April-Oct so imo they probably couldn’t make it work during the winter. TPA- Europe demand drops by around 40% during the winter.

bluefltspecial · Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:56 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
Norwegian has a lot of 787s laying around this upcoming winter. CDG could be a possibility with them as well.

"laying around"

You're likely already aware of this, but most of the aircraft that are not being utilized are being refurbed with new RR engines due to corrosion in the fan blades.

FLYKTPA · Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:21 pm

bluefltspecial wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
Norwegian has a lot of 787s laying around this upcoming winter. CDG could be a possibility with them as well.

"laying around"

You're likely already aware of this, but most of the aircraft that are not being utilized are being refurbed with new RR engines due to corrosion in the fan blades.

I think what the user was trying to say is that there’s capacity that’s unaccounted for this winter and Norwegian recently said exactly that. With ARN- OAK, LAS and DEN-CDG ending there’s some free capacity this winter.

bluefltspecial · Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:37 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
bluefltspecial wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
Norwegian has a lot of 787s laying around this upcoming winter. CDG could be a possibility with them as well.

"laying around"

You're likely already aware of this, but most of the aircraft that are not being utilized are being refurbed with new RR engines due to corrosion in the fan blades.

I think what the user was trying to say is that there’s capacity that’s unaccounted for this winter and Norwegian recently said exactly that. With ARN- OAK, LAS and DEN-CDG ending there’s some free capacity this winter.

Now I see the angle he was coming from, Norwegian, above anyone seems to overextend themselves with aircraft utilization.

FLYKTPA · Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:36 am

Midwestindy wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
NK announced 4x weekly TPA-PHL beginning in December.

TBBJ and TPA Airport Twitter hinting at "announcements" of new routes in next couple of weeks.

PDX maybe and a INTL flight? Really exited to see what's to come.

https://twitter.com/TBBJFrances/status/ ... 7514019840

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/ne ... -more.html
"TIA is targeting several new international destinations, including three in Europe — Manchester, England; Amsterdam; and Dublin, Ireland; and three in Latin America — Bogota, Colombia; Mexico City and Lima, Peru."

As I outlined over on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389993&p=20376327&hilit=aer+lingus+us#p20376327
I'm 90% sure TPA-DUB will be announced soon

DL is also really interested in adding TPA-AMS as well, so that should be interesting to watch.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were announcements from DL and F9 as well

So where exactly did you hear that DL is “really interested” in TPA-AMS? And why are you 90% sure that DUB-TPA will be added?

727LOVER · Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:49 am

Delta 8893 flew TPA-PIE earlier today...anyone know why?

In the air for 3 minutes.

LOL, does the gear even come up?

BTVB6Flyer · Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:51 am

Cargo news: Amazon Air addd a ONT-TPA-IAH leg. Bringing them up to 4 sometimes 5 departures a day (BWI,DFW,IAH,CVG). Incoming flights are from (ONT, SMF, BWI, CVG).

As for new routes, domestic expansion, in terms of new routes is getting slimmer in terms of available and viable markets. Maybe some in the Midwest and North East and of course PDX and some California routes on the West Coast.

As some mentioned, if it's TATL, I'm hopeful it won't eat at the current carrier share across the pond, specifically, WK and Icelandair. Does fit in with Aer Lingus new route announcements that are supposedly coming soon. I really hope it's either PDX, MEX or BOG or another Canadian city for the upcoming Winter season.

airtrantpa · Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:20 am

727LOVER wrote:
Delta 8893 flew TPA-PIE earlier today...anyone know why?

In the air for 3 minutes.

LOL, does the gear even come up?

Probably to pick up the mariners or rays. I know the Rays fly ouy of PIE a lot, IIRC they fly the widget.

My second guess would be a special charter

yyztpa · Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:48 pm

airtrantpa wrote:
727LOVER wrote:
Delta 8893 flew TPA-PIE earlier today...anyone know why?

In the air for 3 minutes.

LOL, does the gear even come up?

Probably to pick up the mariners or rays. I know the Rays fly ouy of PIE a lot, IIRC they fly the widget.

My second guess would be a special charter

The flight number carries onward on the 10th to Seattle. Likely repositioning to carry the Mariners home.on that day.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl8893

danimarroquin · Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:49 pm

AV to do the TPA-BOG seems like a obvious move , but wont happen this year since they already lock the company with only 2 new routes for MUC and ORD this year .

axiom · Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:43 pm

According to the weekly OAG thread, NK is dropping TPA-LAX in September. Unclear if it's a seasonal suspension or permanent.

To be honest, this doesn't surprise me. DL responded by running up to 12x weekly, and WN enters the market this summer. I'm not sure the market can support more than two daily -- it's relatively long and thin. Let's see. WN and DL are the ones to do it, though.

jplatts · Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:18 pm

axiom wrote:
According to the weekly OAG thread, NK is dropping TPA-LAX in September. Unclear if it's a seasonal suspension or permanent.

To be honest, this doesn't surprise me. DL responded by running up to 12x weekly, and WN enters the market this summer. I'm not sure the market can support more than two daily -- it's relatively long and thin. Let's see. WN and DL are the ones to do it, though.

One big difference is that WN will be able to connect passengers between the San Francisco Bay Area and TPA through LAX when WN starts LAX-TPA nonstop service. WN also has an established customer base in the San Francisco Bay Area plus 2 focus cities at OAK and SJC in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Flyingstump · Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:40 pm

jplatts wrote:
axiom wrote:
According to the weekly OAG thread, NK is dropping TPA-LAX in September. Unclear if it's a seasonal suspension or permanent.

To be honest, this doesn't surprise me. DL responded by running up to 12x weekly, and WN enters the market this summer. I'm not sure the market can support more than two daily -- it's relatively long and thin. Let's see. WN and DL are the ones to do it, though.

One big difference is that WN will be able to connect passengers between the San Francisco Bay Area and TPA through LAX when WN starts LAX-TPA nonstop service. WN also has an established customer base in the San Francisco Bay Area plus 2 focus cities at OAK and SJC in the San Francisco Bay Area.

I don't think that will be a factor. If someone wants to fly from the San Francisco Bay area to Tampa, their most efficient option is to fly on United directly from SFO to TPA (and I would guess that United has more loyalty in SFO than Southwest does). In addition, if people didn't mind connecting, they would already have options in places like PHX, LAS, or DAL on WN alone. I don't see why there would be any significant benefit to inefficiently connecting pax through LAX to TPA from SFO. On the other hand, DL can provide pax from TPA with some unique connections to Hawaii or Australia that make sense.

GVIIO · Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:19 pm

My sources at the airport indicate its like Aer Lingus that the airport will announce within the coming weeks with a potential start date of November that's what I was told from credible sources. Not too sure if I buy it personally.

Murdoughnut · Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:56 pm

GVIIO wrote:
My sources at the airport indicate its like Aer Lingus that the airport will announce within the coming weeks with a potential start date of November that's what I was told from credible sources. Not too sure if I buy it personally.

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

axiom · Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:02 pm

Murdoughnut wrote:
GVIIO wrote:
My sources at the airport indicate its like Aer Lingus that the airport will announce within the coming weeks with a potential start date of November that's what I was told from credible sources. Not too sure if I buy it personally.

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

Do you have a source for this?

GVIIO's rumor is pretty consistent with buzz we've been hearing from many corners about DUB-TPA. TPA has also been relatively aggressive in offering incentives for new services.

727LOVER · Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:05 pm

Flyingstump wrote:
I don't think that will be a factor. If someone wants to fly from the San Francisco Bay area to Tampa, their most efficient option is to fly on United directly from SFO to TPA

I was looking to fly TPA-SFO last fall on UA...but that was $450, one-way....MCO-SFO on UA was about $150. So, guess who I chose.

Although, security line @ TPA was probably not as horrid.

FLYKTPA · Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:06 pm

Murdoughnut wrote:
GVIIO wrote:
My sources at the airport indicate its like Aer Lingus that the airport will announce within the coming weeks with a potential start date of November that's what I was told from credible sources. Not too sure if I buy it personally.

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

Ding ding ding... It’s not happening. TPA doesn’t do revenue guarantees...

Midwestindy · Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:08 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:
GVIIO wrote:
My sources at the airport indicate its like Aer Lingus that the airport will announce within the coming weeks with a potential start date of November that's what I was told from credible sources. Not too sure if I buy it personally.

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

Ding ding ding... It’s not happening. TPA doesn’t do revenue guarantees...

You might eat your words....

Murdoughnut · Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:18 pm

axiom wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:
GVIIO wrote:
My sources at the airport indicate its like Aer Lingus that the airport will announce within the coming weeks with a potential start date of November that's what I was told from credible sources. Not too sure if I buy it personally.

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

Do you have a source for this?

GVIIO's rumor is pretty consistent with buzz we've been hearing from many corners about DUB-TPA. TPA has also been relatively aggressive in offering incentives for new services.

Discussed it with leaders from a couple airports who responded to EI's recent RFI

FLYKTPA · Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:21 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

Ding ding ding... It’s not happening. TPA doesn’t do revenue guarantees...

You might eat your words....

For this round of expansion Aer Lingus is looking for revenue guarantees, which TPA doesn’t offer, so nothing to Tampa will be added during this round of expansion.
Now if Aer Lingus is open to adding service to airports not offering RG during the next round of expansion than TPA will likely happen.

Murdoughnut · Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:24 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:
GVIIO wrote:
My sources at the airport indicate its like Aer Lingus that the airport will announce within the coming weeks with a potential start date of November that's what I was told from credible sources. Not too sure if I buy it personally.

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

Ding ding ding... It’s not happening. TPA doesn’t do revenue guarantees...

Actually no airport can engage in a revenue guarantee. Revenue guarantees have to come from community groups not directly associated with the airport. In fact, the airport itself can't be a party to it - it would amount to a subsidy of airport revenue, and would be in violation of FAA rules.

axiom · Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:35 pm

Murdoughnut wrote:
axiom wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:

I wouldn't put too much stock into it - word is that Aer Lingus is focused on markets offering revenue guarantees, which large markets like Tampa Bay generally don't do.

Do you have a source for this?

GVIIO's rumor is pretty consistent with buzz we've been hearing from many corners about DUB-TPA. TPA has also been relatively aggressive in offering incentives for new services.

Discussed it with leaders from a couple airports who responded to EI's recent RFI

Interesting. Thanks. Makes sense. We'll see what happens!

axiom · Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:37 pm

Today NK announced GSO-TPA. Year round, 2-3 weekly. 21st city served from TPA (well, we'll see if LAX comes back next summer). This felt like a longstanding gap. Didn't DL serve this back when they had a TPA focus city in the early 2000s?

727LOVER · Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:40 pm

Well....Piedmont served it in the 1980s.

rajincajun01 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:49 pm

axiom wrote:
Today NK announced GSO-TPA. Year round, 2-3 weekly. 21st city served from TPA (well, we'll see if LAX comes back next summer). This felt like a longstanding gap. Didn't DL serve this back when they had a TPA focus city in the early 2000s?

NK is likely trying to draw from Raleigh and Charlotte with this route. RDU is at gate capacity during peak times right now. Also competes with G4’s GSO route out of PIE.

Flyingstump · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:15 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
axiom wrote:
Today NK announced GSO-TPA. Year round, 2-3 weekly. 21st city served from TPA (well, we'll see if LAX comes back next summer). This felt like a longstanding gap. Didn't DL serve this back when they had a TPA focus city in the early 2000s?

NK is likely trying to draw from Raleigh and Charlotte with this route. RDU is at gate capacity during peak times right now. Also competes with G4’s GSO route out of PIE.

It will be interesting to see how G4 responds (if at all). G4 usually avoids competition when evaluating new routes to start, but they had a very strong response to AirTran when AirTran wanted to take a piece of their pie in Orlando back in the late 2000s.

pipeafcr · Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:15 am

Can state with confidence that AV won't be doing TPA at least within the next 5 years, best bet would be for another airline to do BOG, maybe WN but still doubt it

axiom · Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:31 am

pipeafcr wrote:
Can state with confidence that AV won't be doing TPA at least within the next 5 years, best bet would be for another airline to do BOG, maybe WN but still doubt it

How could you, let alone anyone, make a five year declaration in this industry?! What's the basis of your opinion?

pipeafcr · Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:54 am

axiom wrote:
pipeafcr wrote:
Can state with confidence that AV won't be doing TPA at least within the next 5 years, best bet would be for another airline to do BOG, maybe WN but still doubt it

How could you, let alone anyone, make a five year declaration in this industry?! What's the basis of your opinion?

Investor reports, AV’s observed pattern of picking new destinations and aircraft availability. I could be wrong but all arrows prioritize other destinations over TPA. In N. America LAS, ATL, Houston (from BOG) and Montreal are next in line and I’m not considering LatAm and Caribbean destinations which might even come before the N.A one’s

axiom · Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:58 am

pipeafcr wrote:
axiom wrote:
pipeafcr wrote:
Can state with confidence that AV won't be doing TPA at least within the next 5 years, best bet would be for another airline to do BOG, maybe WN but still doubt it

How could you, let alone anyone, make a five year declaration in this industry?! What's the basis of your opinion?

Investor reports, AV’s observed pattern of picking new destinations and aircraft availability. I could be wrong but all arrows prioritize other destinations over TPA. In N. America LAS, ATL, Houston (from BOG) and Montreal are next in line and I’m not considering LatAm and Caribbean destinations which might even come before the N.A one’s

Good source. Thanks for sharing.

I can't find the source right now, but I recall seeing that TPA was one of the top unserved US-BOG markets -- bigger than ATL, IIRC. Maybe the third or fourth? Not pressing, but also enough to sustain a 3-4X weekly narrowbody. Perhaps CM going daily to PTY from mid-July onward is enough southbound capacity for TPA, for now.

We'll see? What else can we say about much of this?

chonetsao · Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:59 am

I think the best thing TPA airport can do is to persuade BA to switch the LON service from LGW to LHR. And hopefully with the feed from LHR this route can become daily. All other European routes bar from DUB would barely work. A strong hub like LHR and FRA works for TPA because of the feed from other end. Now TPA have FRA, it really needs to put LHR on the prime radar. With both LHR and FRA, and possible DUB, TPA could reach many different cities in Europe and Middle East. And hopefully draws more passengers thus encourage more secondary services. And I believe with LGW to LHR switch, AMS or CDG would not be far away.

axiom · Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:01 am

chonetsao wrote:
I think the best thing TPA airport can do is to persuade BA to switch the LON service from LGW to LHR. And hopefully with the feed from LHR this route can become daily. All other European routes bar from DUB would barely work. A strong hub like LHR and FRA works for TPA because of the feed from other end. Now TPA have FRA, it really needs to put LHR on the prime radar. With both LHR and FRA, and possible DUB, TPA could reach many different cities in Europe and Middle East. And hopefully draws more passengers thus encourage more secondary services. And I believe with LGW to LHR switch, AMS or CDG would not be far away.

TPA-LON is already daily. The size of the local market has been sufficient to fill a 777 day in and day out for decades -- why dilute that with connections? FRA (and ZRH, to a lesser extent) provide that connection capacity. The only big missing piece of this puzzle imo is the non-LON UK regional market, which is why I'd pick EI/DUB or MT/MAN as the only real transatlantic contenders right now.

Don't get me wrong, LHR would offer great connectivity, but I don't see it as that essential.

airplaneboy · Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:59 am

axiom wrote:
According to the weekly OAG thread, NK is dropping TPA-LAX in September. Unclear if it's a seasonal suspension or permanent.

To be honest, this doesn't surprise me. DL responded by running up to 12x weekly, and WN enters the market this summer. I'm not sure the market can support more than two daily -- it's relatively long and thin. Let's see. WN and DL are the ones to do it, though.

According to this article published when Spirit announced the route, it was intended as daily, year-round.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/a ... _163111313

airplaneboy · Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:59 am

axiom wrote:
According to the weekly OAG thread, NK is dropping TPA-LAX in September. Unclear if it's a seasonal suspension or permanent.

To be honest, this doesn't surprise me. DL responded by running up to 12x weekly, and WN enters the market this summer. I'm not sure the market can support more than two daily -- it's relatively long and thin. Let's see. WN and DL are the ones to do it, though.

According to this article published when Spirit announced the route, it was intended as daily, year-round.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/a ... _163111313

FLYKTPA · Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:06 am

airplaneboy wrote:
axiom wrote:
According to the weekly OAG thread, NK is dropping TPA-LAX in September. Unclear if it's a seasonal suspension or permanent.

To be honest, this doesn't surprise me. DL responded by running up to 12x weekly, and WN enters the market this summer. I'm not sure the market can support more than two daily -- it's relatively long and thin. Let's see. WN and DL are the ones to do it, though.

According to this article published when Spirit announced the route, it was intended as daily, year-round.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/a ... _163111313

The main factor is that NK added the flight before WN announced their LAX service. 3 carriers year round outside of the summer must of been too much for the market. NK will most likely run the flight seasonally during their April - September summer schedule. Thankfully, the LAS flight is performing very well for them and is staying year round.

axiom · Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:11 am

To be fair, we don't know if the NK TPA-LAX suspension is permanent or seasonal, and I suspect we won't until the schedules are loaded for next summer -- right now they're only loaded through mid Feb.

Murdoughnut · Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:09 pm

axiom wrote:
To be fair, we don't know if the NK TPA-LAX suspension is permanent or seasonal, and I suspect we won't until the schedules are loaded for next summer -- right now they're only loaded through mid Feb.

Right now it's just shifting to seasonal.

Tradewinds71 · Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:19 pm

Perhaps just an uninformed perception from a new and inexperienced poster, but there seems to be so much bleed in the Tampa Bay market from TPA to MCO. Just in the past 4 weeks, I know of 5 people who are minutes from TPA but are flying out of MCO due to dramatically lower cost. I've added to the bleed problem as well recently, flying from MIA to FCO and back a few weeks ago with my wife and 4 friends. It was hard to justify spending $1300 or worse r/t via TPA (LH, WK, BA & all US carriers) vs. $600 r/t via MIA as much as it hurt me personally to do that. For kicks, I often compare MCO pricing vs. TPA for travel I need to do. I don't go with the MCO routing, but the vast majority of the time the pricing is significantly lower. I have great hopes for expanded service in TPA, especially on the international front, but I see market bleed as a real hurdle, and it seems to be influenced by price not necessarily by lack of connectivity/options. The market is there, but the market seems to be bleeding to other airports... Catch 22... Wondering if there's data on this and what the solutions might be.

Murdoughnut · Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:39 pm

Tradewinds71 wrote:
Perhaps just an uninformed perception from a new and inexperienced poster, but there seems to be so much bleed in the Tampa Bay market from TPA to MCO. Just in the past 4 weeks, I know of 5 people who are minutes from TPA but are flying out of MCO due to dramatically lower cost. I've added to the bleed problem as well recently, flying from MIA to FCO and back a few weeks ago with my wife and 4 friends. It was hard to justify spending $1300 or worse r/t via TPA (LH, WK, BA & all US carriers) vs. $600 r/t via MIA as much as it hurt me personally to do that. For kicks, I often compare MCO pricing vs. TPA for travel I need to do. I don't go with the MCO routing, but the vast majority of the time the pricing is significantly lower. I have great hopes for expanded service in TPA, especially on the international front, but I see market bleed as a real hurdle, and it seems to be influenced by price not necessarily by lack of connectivity/options. The market is there, but the market seems to be bleeding to other airports... Catch 22... Wondering if there's data on this and what the solutions might be.

There is data on this - principally airports and airlines look at travel agency (primarily Expedia, Orbitz, etc) data that shows them the zip code where a credit card is registered, as well as a person's routing. This allows you to see what percentage of your region's traffic to XYZ is departing from TPA, MCO, MIA, etc.

As for TPA, it varies based on the availability of non-stop service, as well as fare differentiation. TPA's catchment is much different than that of Orlando and South Florida. TPA has the largest share of local originating traffic of any of the Airports, as well as a higher share of business traffic. The TPA pax is willing to pay a premium not to drive to Orlando or South Florida, and TPA's booking curve is closer in (i.e. TPA pax are more likely to book last minute - largely due to the higher proportion of business traffic compared to other FL markets).

As an example, TPA captures 70% of the traffic of those living in its MSA travelling to Europe - MCO captures 18% of it.

727LOVER · Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:20 pm

Tradewinds71 wrote:
Perhaps just an uninformed perception from a new and inexperienced poster, but there seems to be so much bleed in the Tampa Bay market from TPA to MCO.

Down right LAUGHABLE :lol:

What the hell do you think TPA does to SRQ?

axiom · Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:24 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Tradewinds71 wrote:
Perhaps just an uninformed perception from a new and inexperienced poster, but there seems to be so much bleed in the Tampa Bay market from TPA to MCO.

Down right LAUGHABLE

What the hell do you think TPA does to SRQ?

A bit different. It's increasingly difficult to argue that SRQ is not in the same metro as TPA. We're talking about bleeding between regions, not preferences within regions. This is like arguing that HOU bleeds to IAH...

That said, it isn't absurd to imagine Central Florida as one giant, sprawling, polycentric mega region. There is merit to that thinking, when it comes to long-term infrastructure planning. But I digress.

727LOVER · Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:52 pm

axiom wrote:
A bit different. It's increasingly difficult to argue that SRQ is not in the same metro as TPA. We're talking about bleeding between regions, not preferences within regions. This is like arguing that HOU bleeds to IAH....

Not saying this is the pure definition....but do people living near HOU have different TV stations as people living near IAH?

The reason I said laughable...SRQ is my home airport...and every time I hear that MCO takes away from TPA argument....I just find it so ironic.

airtrantpa · Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:55 pm

Spirit Airlines coming to Asheville Regional Airport
wlos.com/news/local/spirit-airlines-06-13-2018

Nice to see TPA from AVL. FL did well on this route with the 717. Will give G4 some nice competion from the mtns to the tampa bay area.

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