1) 738 early retirement?
2) 757 seems to be staying longer than planned. The 10 retirements in 2020 are probably all 75H. Looks like AA has no retirement plan for the 75L.
3) 767 seems to be staying longer than usual and being preferred over A333 for engine reasons?
4) Might we see an RJ shortage if all the ERD and CR2 get retired?
Perhaps AA wishes to take additional A321s and 789s?
Responses to your comments:
1. Yes. The first batch of 75 738s that were delivered in the late 90s/early 2000s is now approaching the 20 year old mark, so it makes sense to plan the retirement of those, as more MAX are coming. I knew for a long time the 738 retirement would start in a not too distant future. The rest of the 738 fleet will stay, as it is not even a decade old.
2. Yes. The 34 remaining 757s are International 757s which were expected to stay in the fleet longer than the domestic 757s would. I knew that during this year 2018 there would be no further 757 retirement. It looks like the 10 757s they are planning to phase out are, as you mention, the 75Hs which are ex-US. The good news is we might still see International 757s flying on TATL flights out of JFK and PHL for a while. It would be nice if JFK-CDG goes back to the 757, and make it 2x daily to offer more flexibility to customers flying to/from CDG. On the other hand, the MIA hub is likely to still see the 757 for a while, which would be flown on South America routes such as MIA-BSB, MIA-UIO and MIA-CCS. This being said I would expect the domestic route JFK-MIA to still see the 757 at least 2x daily for the next two years if not longer.
3. I believe that the 767 fleet is now down to 23. Those probably received the new J Class product already. The youngest 767s, 9 of them, are only 15 years old so they still have at least five more years ahead of them. I would expect the last 767 to leave by 2025 at the latest.
4. I believe that they have now quite a large fleet of E-145s and E-175s to cover the loss of CR2s and ERDs. They have CR7s, and the CR9s can cover the loss of the E190s that are leaving next year.
Additional A321s? They have 100 321NEOs coming, the first one won't arrive before next year. The deliveries of the 321OEOs are now completed.
Additional 789s? Yes, if they decide not to take the A350s that were previously ordered by US. or if they decide to expand to new markets. If they expand on the Pacific Rim, Australia and the South Pacific then yes the 789 is the right airplane for them. LAX is now a 787 base.